08/04/2010 7:45AM

Lookin At Lucky, Weekend Thoughts, HG PP's

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It was a stellar performance from the country's top three-year-old, Lookin At Lucky, in the Haskell Invitational at Monmouth.

The winner of the Preakness Stakes bobbled ever so slightly coming out of the gate before being expertly guided off the rail by his calm young rider, Martin Garcia. Lookin At Lucky tracked the pace while three paths wide going into the first turn and made a smooth run in tandem with Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver while three deep on the final bend. Garcia seemed like he still had a handful of horse at the quarter-pole, however, and Lookin At Lucky exploded away from the field to win as much, much the best.

These weren't ham-and-eggers he was drilling into the ground, either. While Super Saver may be a tad overrated, he still won the Derby. Ice Box, arguably best in the Derby, never picked up his feet. The ever-consistent First Dude was nowhere to be found. The lightly-raced and very talented Trappe Shot simply could not go with Lookin At Lucky come crunch time.

This was a bigtime performance. Whether we see Bob Baffert's charge in the Travers is still up in the air, but Lookin At Lucky has to be considered an intriguing new face on a handicap landscape that boasts the likes of Zenyatta, Quality Road, Blame, and Rachel Alexandra.

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Violon Sacre is a talented turf runner from the Patrick Biancone barn. Unfortunately, Violon Sacre is insane. If you get an opportunity, take a gander at the replay of the Grade 3 Oceanport Handicap at Monmouth on Haskell afternoon. Violon Sacre is the one tossing his head for the first half-mile of the 8 1/2-furlong Oceanport. The horse simply refuses to settle for his rider. That he still had enough energy to get within breathing distance of even-money winner Get Serious shows Violon Sacre's ability. But can he be trusted in future races?

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It was a bittersweet weekend for trainer Tony Dutrow. After nursing both A Little Warm and Winslow Homer through myriad physical problems that cost them opportunities in the Triple Crown series, Dutrow was rewarded with a pair of impressive wins in the Jim Dandy and Curlin Stakes, respectively, at Saratoga. A Little Warm looks headed for the Travers, but Winslow Homer suffered a serious injury after his facile win. It's a very tough game.

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I don't know what you thought, but I felt that Get Stormy was exhausted at the end of the Grade 2 Fourstardave Handicap at Saratoga on Saturday. Now, I guess he had every reason to get tired as he did all the running on the front end and stopped the teletimer one-fifth off the track record for 1 1/16 miles on the grass. Throw another speed in there next time out at perhaps a longer distance, however, and he may go off an underlay.

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It's always special to win a race at Del Mar so kudos to 10-pound bug rider Jesus Velazquez for booting home Ranger Heartley for an 8-1 upset in the fifth race on August 1. Ranger Heartley was claimed out of the race for $62,500 by Bob Hess Jr.

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Here are the top 25 Winning Beyer Speed Figures from last week's races:

 



 

The past performances for the leading Beyer performer are available at the bottom of this blog entry. 

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Congrats to terry for finishing first in last week's HG exercise.  He selects Thursday's Latham Stakes at Saratoga for this week's race. 

The past performances will be available at the bottom of this blog entry.

 

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan." Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified. Please post your plays and analysis to the blog. In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per person please. I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries

I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated. 

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The tech support team is still working out the kinks on this new blog.  We have a timestamp on the comments and the 100-post limit has been lifted, but there is still a great deal more that needs to be done.  

I thank you for your patience.

 

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Lookin At Lucky.pdf637.19 KB
HG.pdf166.73 KB
Blackseabass More than 1 year ago
Ron Zuercher, I may have mentioned this before but get the book "the science of winning" its gonna be hard to get but it will be something you haven't seen before. I want to guess at the cause of your summertime blues. DMR,SAR,Ellis , ARL run lots of babies and have lots of shippers. Maybe one of those two things is the culprit? I know you have an extensive racing library, get that book it will make a nice addition to your collection.>>>>>My captcha is "croissant prophylactc" No bs.>>> Boy I can go a lot of ways with that one.LOL. BSF's on turf or synthetic are about as useful as a CROISSANT PROPHYLACTC. Or how 'bout , When I came to bed wearing a croissant prophylactc my girlfriend said "I don't know what the heck you think you're gonna do with that thing but it ain't gonna be here."
Blackseabass More than 1 year ago
Todd Suanders, You don't want to here any rebuttal ? LOL. C.mon big fella thats not the way it works on Formblog. LOOKIN' AT LUCKY got sick ! What do you have to say to that ? What makes you think shipping to SLOPATOGA is a good idea ? No offense all you Slopatoga fans but I personally only bet the maidens there for the most part. >>>>>My captcha is "adequate artcraft". The brilliant horseman John Shirreffs, with his ADEQUATE ARTCRAFT, has helped keep Zenyatta unbeaten through 17 starts.
meathead01 More than 1 year ago
I dont like new website at all but I dont like change at all either. I will get used to it though because of Dans blog. out of town the last two days and did not get my picks in maybe next time good luck all who did.
JIMPEREGOY More than 1 year ago
HG-LATHAM Looks like a tough heat to take a stand on. All 10 entrants have fine connections from a win percentage standpoint. Flamin’ Hot stands out with a turf Beyer of 95 at this distance and he is 7 for 8 in the exacta. Bridgetown broke my heart in the BC Juvenile Turf last year. He appears to be working well, but may be over bet at this distance with a layoff from November. Red Rally beat Bridgetown at his own game last June and might be a nice price. His dirt Beyer of 96 in the slop could translate to a big score, here. He has passed horses to win in the past. Don’t Say No appears to have blazing early speed. Will he pass and win? Will he have to? I will use Don’t Say no as the “Speed of the speed” with the others, above. $10 Exacta, 6 over the 4,5,8 = $30 $10 Exacta 4,5,8 over the 6 = $30 $2 Trifecta 4,5,6,8 WT # 4,5,6,8 WT # 4,5,8 = $36 $4 Exacta 4 over 2 = $4
bobc More than 1 year ago
HG Cayman, you deserve a huge bonus for attempting to sift through this new blog to find a winner!!!!..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Will keep this simple. $100 exacta: 8/ 2................................................................................. .............................................................................................................................................. .............................................................................................................................................. P.S. I have taken an oath and submitted my DNA for verification.
57greg More than 1 year ago
Difficult race from a trainer patterns perspective...lots of negatives for everyone in here...the only two that have some positives are A Dutrows Westover Wildcat( he is 2-10 turf sprints and 20 -67 first start of the meet last 3 years at Saratoga) and K Mcpeeks Bridgetown( 2-14 over 90day layoff and 2-7 turf sprints last 6 years at the toga party)...I note here that Dave Litfin picks these two also, so that should be the Kiss of Death(for him, not me)....so lets try 30$ ex box 3-5 plus 10$ ex wih 3 over the 4(Red Rally) and 8(Flamin Hot) and 10$ ex the 5 over the 4 and 8 also....Congrats to Dan for the EX yesterday in Spa babies, I liked Gorhams horse in the second spot for what I thought would be a better price....no dice....57greg
Stefan More than 1 year ago
HG Latham I'm coming up chalk for this... Bridgetown (#5) looks to be the class of the field. You have to love his breeding, Speightstown was awesome. Westover Wildcat (#3) also looks classy and running third to A Little Warm is a plus. Flamin Hot (#8) closed like a bullet in his last out and has lost two in a row by inches. With all of the speed lined up for this, I think it sets up for Flamin Hot, and since you don't win HG by playing the three favorites, I'll take the 8 over the other closers in this: $50 Win 8 $26 Ex 8 / 7 $4 Tri 8 / 7,9 / 2,7,9
Charles Warner More than 1 year ago
Bridgetown is the class of the field and has a win at the Spa. I believe Flamin' Hot made need a race and may get nipped for second by a rapidly closing Enumerate. $80 Exacta 5/9 $20 Exacta 9/5
Virgin Queen More than 1 year ago
MIKEA, HAPPY BIRTHDAY...............................................................bsb, i get my cardplayer mag every two weeks so i know the players u mentioned including the UCLA dude chris ferguson. yes, many top players r cry babies. i know some of the best online players in the world courstey of my screen name and like many live top pro's they whine 2. it's ok when they suck-out on the river 2 win a big pot, but when it happens 2 them they call the other player all kinds of names like fish, donkey, idiot etc. if i was going 2 start a business it would b the diaper business catering only 2 poker players. thats what i always tell them in the chat box. the only girl i know who is a big cry baby is annette_15. at 21 a hell of a poker player but if she came 2 my sandbox she b getting whacked off the side of the head of course only after she gave me some pointers. btw, thx 4 letting me and every 1 else on formblog know how u kicked some butt at the poker table against some top players. doesn't your chest get sore from beating on it all the time.........................peace..............VQ
Ron Zuercher More than 1 year ago
Dan, This is my second try in notepad for getting paragraphs. The first one did not work. But thanks for the patience and the tips and your handicapping par excellence. Cayman, Godd luck buddy in slogging through these posts, divining and conjuring the HG wagers. And I thought it was difficult before this new format! Calvin, Read your article in Horseplayer Magazine. I know you probably submitted a more in depth article than what was printed. It's too bad they do not tap your knowledge. I have gotten every issue of that magazine and just about the time I am ready to not renew, they tempt me with an in depth, instructive, informative, provoking my thoughts article. I am starved, craved for other horseplayers opinions and ideas, but they seem to want to dumb it down (like DRF lately). Too bad.... I am glad the new format is easier for you. Before, all I had to do was write down the time of the last post I read and pick it up from there. Now I have to write down i.e. [20-26] and subtract the posts, or is it add, scroll down. More annoying for me. To Annoymous p ensign, My vote between your two posits definitely goes to the ten post limit. I only have to deal with the "are you human" whenever I post. Besides, if it really does save Dan some grief, I am all for it. Mike A DRF offers the same trainer watch services and emails entries to you. I currently have three trainers on my watch list, James Toner being one, and 183 horses. Whackmacky, Looks like you have been on a tough run. I know you did not solicit nor need any advice, but here is the but, Take a deep breath, take a step back. You know you are a pretty good handicapper and bettor. Things will turn around. The reason I say this is because my personal experience is that sometimes you just shouldn't fight it.. My 20 plus years of record keeping tell me that I am absolutely a horrendous handicapper and better in the month of July and the first two weeks of August. I have no idea why this would be so, but I have been tapering off in this time period the last few years. So, I am on a temporary wagering hiatus, only dabbling to keep up and to have some impetus to watch the races and put horses on the watch list. Good luck to you and I enjoy your enthusiasm and your GIGANTE HUEVOS! Ron Zuercher