Long Island Handicap, Sharp Cat Stakes

Laura, You recently posted that not all breeders are wealthy. I suppose the same is true of racehorse ownership in the US? I always remember jumping into a battered old cab at a racetrack just outside New Orleans. Chatting to the driver I was astounded to learn that he had owned one of the runners that evening. It didn't win, so I had to pay the fare. That sort of thing just couldn't happen in the UK. Winners prize money is set at poverty level for all low to middle grade racing. Just had a quick look at the figures for today's only flat meeting - a very low level meeting at an all weather track. 7 races with an average winners prize of £2,040. Yes, that is £2,040 - I haven't missed a zero off the end. With average training fees around the £15,000 mark, very few cab drivers can afford to own a horse. Certainly not 100% of a horse. That is why owners syndicates are booming in the UK. You get a slice of the action, but for a modest cost. There is a very old, very corny racing joke. Question - How do you make a small fortune from horseracing? Answer - Start off with a much larger fortune. Regards - Bernard Downes

Keith L, Yes, the dam has equal importance in determining atributes of the foal, since she contributes half of the genes. Additionally, the dam sire will either contribute speed or stamina through the dam. It's a well known breeding theory that the distaff line contributes racing class and stamina. Bernard, Common racetrack lore: "Four white feet and a white nose-take off his hide and feed him to the crows." The theory goes that a horse with white feet/hooves have tender feet. This is actually a myth. A white hoof lacks the pigmentation of a darker hoof, but a study was done in the 70's comparing the structural differences between the black and white hoof. No correlation between hardness of the hoof wall and the pigmentation of the hoof were found. However the saying, "No hoof no horse." is very true. If the feet aren't cared for on a regular basis, your horse can't run to its full potential. Bernard, While it is a genetic "roll of the dice," Breeders have an additional tool - bloodcross or "nicking patterns" to help determine if certain bloodlines work well together. For instance, the Northern Dancer/Mr. Prospector (and vice versa) "nick" is the most successful and prolific bloodline cross, getting over 100,000 stakes winners. When using Nicks, I don't like to go farther back than two generations, because the Nicks only determine if the sire/damsire line work well together. They don't take into account the other half of the pedigree (the sire's distaff line or dam's second sire). Not all breeders are wealthy, in fact, the majority of the racing world is made up of the "little people." Their horses are the ones filling the claiming/lower level allowance races. Sometimes, they hit gold with a nice stakes runner. I specialize in working with small to mid-level breeders who can't afford outrageous stud fees, but still want to breed a decent horse. Remember Hilda's Passion? The breeders of that mare are small time good ole Kentucky folk. Travers Manley, an intelligent college kid in KY, got involved in breeding. He bought a mare at the Sales, sold her daughter and bred the mare back to Parading. That foal was featured in an advertisement, showing that just every day folks can be a part of the racing world. SR Vegas, Thanks for sharing my website with Bernard! Hold Me Back is one of my favorite horses! He was easily the most handsome guy in the Mott barn and he's a huge, but gentle, loving giant! He loved his peppermints and a scratch under the jaw (ohh, yeah, riiighht there, here, let me put the entire force of my head against your hand, keep scratching that jaw! Hey, where'd the hand go? What do ya mean my head is too heavy??). Annie, Laurie's Rocket is a handsome boy! Unfortunately, his pedigree indicates that he may be challenged going farther than 1 1/16 miles. His sire Bluegrass Cat hasn't produced a winner past 1 1/16 miles, although his daughter Kathmanblu was second over the turf at 1 1/8 miles in the Lake Placid Stakes (G-2) at Saratoga. Laurie's Rocket's damsire American Chance won stakes from 6 1/2 F to 1 1/8 miles, including the Forego (then a G-2) race. As a broodmare sire, his daughters bore only 1 runner who was successful at 1 1/8 miles, and one at 1 1/4 miles. The rest are sprinter/milers. Laurie's Rocket is a half brother to the turf sprinter Greeley's Rocket. their dam Clay's Rocket was also a turf sprinter and she is a half sister to Frizette heroine Adieu. Three other half sisters were stakes winning sprinter/milers. The second damsire At The Threshold won the American Derby at 1 1/4 miles, but he wasn't that great at stud, getting only blacktype runners. His best offspring was Derby winner Lil E Tee. Despite siring a Kentucky Derby winner, At The Threshold spent much of his stud career in Oklahoma. Attention those who wish to join the IMS Syndicate: PLEASE email me at lross@ironmaidensthoroughbreds.com if you want to be part of this year's group. I know SR Vegas, Cathy, Blackstone, and Keith L have mentioned that they want to renew the syndicate, so we have only 5 spots left! If you notified me on the blog that you wanted to be part of the syndicate, I might have missed it. Former members get 1st preference. Of course it's free, and this is how it works: Members pool their horses so everyone owns them. That way, if your MKB horse becomes injured or just isn't talented enough to make it on the TC Trail, you still have a shot at TC bragging rights if the other syndicate horses do well. So far in the last few year's our horses have done very well. We had Super Saver (Spartan Tom) Lookin At Lucky (TBTA) and my lil Drossy. We've also had The Factor, To Honor And Serve, and many other nice stakes horses. Blackstone, our Treasurer, keeps a spreadsheet of how well the horses have done and I add info regarding how well the horses did in their last races, current works and future plans, as well as pedigree notes. Plus, we have 2 entries into the Road To The Roses Derby Contest. Laura

Keith L I KNEW I left a few of my semi-or adopted MKB horses off my list, I missed TAPIZAR in the lists, of lists I was looking thru ! LOL! I should have looked at the Futures tickets I still have in the file, that I got for all of us. HA! Bernard Downes Thank you for your response to my questions. You also said : "When I can help, they feed my vanity. And when I can't help, they give my old brain some exercise" I liked that . I'm a curious type, so do expect more questions comming your way :) Laura Chalky posted that if there was any room in the IMS she would LOVE to come join in on the action. If not, she would offer to be a Mascot :)

Whips?.........Somebody mention whips?.............

SR Vegas, Despite 45 years experience watching horses, betting horses and visiting racetracks, I have limited knowledge of most peripheral horse racing topics. Certainly limited compared to most on here. So, sorry, I am afraid that the Cartier Awards are one such peripheral topic and I can offer no worthwhile background information. As to the awards themselves, I wouldn't argue with any of the winning horses. However, for me, the best bit of news to come out of it is that, all being well, Frankel is being stepped up to 10 furlongs next year. I am already beginning to dream that the BC Classic just might be his ultimate target in 2012. Speaking more generally about awards, for most horseplayers in the UK the Cartier Awards are not that important, certainly not on the same planet as the Eclipse Awards in the US. Remembering the Zenyatta/Rachel HOY debate, when I half expected the West Coast to invade the East, your average UK horseplayer wouldn't get very worked up about who won. I think it is the case that Sports Awards are far more important, and more prevalent, in your country than in the UK. We do have awards, but with one exception that I won't bore you with, the weeks of debate you have are unheard of on this side of the Pond. I sometimes watch American Football on the TV and I was amazed a few weeks back to hear serious discussion of Heisman Trophy candidates. Halfway through the College season? I know that John Wayne's cavalry officer used to say that apologising is a sign of weakness, but I don't agree. I believe it is politeness and the sign of a decent upbringing. So, to repeat myself, sorry for being no help on this one. Regards - Bernard Downes P.S. Despite the above, I am happy to field any questions you have. When I can help, they feed my vanity. And when I can't help, they give my old brain some exercise.

Whips make horses focus on running and remind them that they're in a race. They are also used to keep horses running straight. Banning the whip would have some big consequences. Be careful what you wish for... whips are used for a reason.

Meathead, I agree, let's whip the jocks, at least the ones who pound on the horses. Even though the "kinder, gentler stick" is being used, not all jurisdictions insist upon using them. There are several sticks lying around my house, and let me tell you, getting smacked with one would HURT! Uhmm...no, I'm NOT into S&M, why do you ask? Anyway, I've seen horses come back with welts and bleeding cuts due to excessive use of the stick. I agree partially with TBTA regarding the banning of sticks in races. I don't believe in hitting a horse constantly as a motivation to run faster. But sticks can be useful if used properly, especially during training hours. Many times, the babies want to lean on each other while their breezing down the lane. A short tap on the hindquarters will cause the horse to shift outwards, away from the stick. After a few times, they learn that leaning in on another horse will earn them a tap. Also, if a horse veers during a race, either into another horse or into the path of the horse behind him, it can be a very dangerous situation for all involved and can quickly turn into a tragic accident. A tap from a stick will generally cause a veering horse to move away from the whip, thereby avoiding or lessening the impact of a problem. A long time ago in a galaxy far, far away, I was an exercise rider in S. Florida. There were plenty of times when I had to use the stick to keep a green horse from crashing into another horse, or even the rail. It was also useful with the babies to help them learn to change leads. I do think the Stewards should regularly enforce the whipping penalties that are in place instead of the hit or miss (excuse the pun) enforcement for the occasional jock. As for Sunday Silence, he swerved like a drunken sailor ( no offense, Steve T) down the stretch of the Derby as he shied away from the whip. In the Preakness, Sunday Silence drifted slightly from the whip, but not as badly. Steve T. can give you more info on his fave horse, Sunday Silence. Mine was Easy Goer, lol. Oh, BTW, no cut and paste on the pedigree profile, I wrote everything up this morning. TY for the compliment and I hope the info is useful to those who follow pedigree. Keith L, Here's another good site for free PP's: http://www.trks2day.com/trks2day.html I have links to free PP's on the Chat Page of the IMT website. Laura

"It's a well known breeding theory that the distaff line contributes racing class and stamina." Be careful how you word that... there is no "class" gene. Females can only produce a handful of foals in their lifetime, whereas males can produce thousands. The vast majority of racehorses never accomplish anything on the track, so it is, therefore, silly and unrealistic to expect any sire to produce a high percentage of "quality" horses. If a mare, however, produces 4 stakes winners out of 11 foals, that is a viable statistic. But mares do not "contribute" quality... the mares stats are used rather than the sire stats strictly out of convenience... that is, the percentage of stakes-winning sire offspring would all be really close to 0%. Those sire numbers are completely meaningless. On the other hand, when asking whether a horse is likely to get a distance or run well on grass, the sire statistics are much more meaningful than the dam's for the exact opposite reason. Often, a dam may only produce a few, if any, runners to even attempt the new distance or surface. However, a sire will likely have a large relevant sample to draw a meaningful conclusion from. To be clear, that doesn't mean that distance and surface are "passed" by the sire and not the dam. Again, it is just a statistical convenience; it is much easier to draw overall conclusions from those numbers. I think back to the Uncle Mo discussion. Many argued that his dam side could give him a stamina boost. The POSSIBILITY was there, but the PROBABILITY was not. His sire, with over 1000 offspring to many different mares, had produced a single 10f winner that anyone could name. A bet on Uncle Mo getting 1 1/4 was a bet against that very strong sire statistic.

okiesharp, "In an open claiming race, would I be safe in throwing out any horses whose last race was an n2L or n3L in which they didn't win?" No. "Could I also throw them out in an Alwn1x or Alwn2x?" No. Nowadays, these races are all rather similar. Same is true for the optional claimers. Some fields might carry the "claiming" title, but contain nothing but drop-downs from allowance or upper claiming races. Sometimes, an allowance race might have a lot of beaten claimers running in it. One good thing about Formulator is that you can get an idea for the overall quality of each field, regardless of how the DRF titles the race. I do that, rather than make a big deal out of the minutiae contained in the headers or PP lines.

TBTA, I didn't say Artest wasn't talented or good; I said he was very green and unprofessional in his debut win and I stand by that 100%. Let's put it this way: right now, I would not consider singling a horse like Artest in a Pick Six. He may win by 10 next time; I'm not saying he isn't good enough. I AM saying that 99% of the public do not watch race replays and many that do might've still missed what I mentioned earlier. They will only see what the DRF PP lines show: a huge 5 length win in decent time. He is, therefore, going to take a ton of money at the windows and is just not worth it to me from a value standpoint. He is coming off a mysterious hiatus and did not show much professionalism in June. To me, he is the kind of favorite I will shop around to find an alternative to. Can he win? Absolutely. Would I single a horse like this in the Pick Six? Not a chance. Personally, I don't like young horses who flash the tail and/or are erratic in the stretch. I can use them, but I will not single them... I refused to single Union Rags in the Juvenile because I didn't like his stretch run in the Champagne. He won that race by open lengths, so nobody really cared that he goofed off in the stretch. In the Juvenile, however, he got into a stretch duel and that same unprofessionalism cost him the win and burned many, many tickets. He was a must-use, but a must-not single. I feel the same way about Artest going into Friday's race.

It looks like I got back just in time for some pedigree discussions............. Here is my two cents: Hard Spun's are not worth a dime at Hollywood or Del Mar, they didn't show much at Santa Anita either. However, Woodbine and Keeneland has poly that the babies seem to like. On dirt, the HS's have fared terribly at Philly and Saratoga, average at Monmouth and Belmont and quite well at Laurel. One moneymaking bet when looking at the Hard Spun's, watch for one who has done just awful on poly or dirt, but is adding distance and switching to turf. There have been some major wakeups and good payors. Many of these babies are kicking butt around a mile to a mile and a sixteenth. One promising Hard Spun is running Friday at Aqueduct, Artest is his name. He has won like a good one, but I suspect there was either an issue or some growing to do because after a terrific maiden score, the horse went on the shelf for awhile. BSB, I still have all your notes on the BSBFFF's from last year's Derby. I thought it was interesting and unique. Even if you do not choose to do all the MKBs, I hope you do the starters. I for one, loved the idea, mainly because it pays attention to both sides of a horse's pedigree.

Bernard, From what I've read, you always ask intelligent questions. When one is attempting to learn, no question is stupid and you are certainly a nice contributor to the blog! In regard to conformation, physical & mental attributes, many sires "stamp" their foals. That is, they strongly pass along their conformation, positive and negative aspects, to the majority of their offspring. If you look at the typical A.P. Indy or Tiznow baby, you'll see that many are large dark bays with a deep, laid-back shoulder and powerful muscles. They'll have short backs and powerful hindquarters. Conformation of the sire and dam is as important as the pedigree to most breeders. They take note of the strengths and weaknesses of their mare before selecting a stallion that may help correct the flaws and add strengths of his own. For instance, You wouldn't want to breed a sickle hocked mare to a stallion with the same trait. In addition, if your mare is on the small side, breeding her to a small sire, such as Pollack's Vision, isn't a good idea. Sending her to a larger stallion will give the foal a chance to have some size. Some sires pass along their good genes, but in addition, certain lines are known to also produce horses with a high number of injuries. Unbridled's Song and In Excess are two noted stallions that are noted for a high injury rate amongst their offspring. For instance, breeding a mare from a fragile line to a stallion descended from another fragile line can result in a foal that can't stand the rigors of training. Of course, as with everything there are exceptions, but why take the risk? Mental attitude can be passed along by the stallion and dam as well. Storm Cat's dam Terlingua was known to be a dominant, hot headed mare. She passed this trait along to her son Storm Cat, who, in turn passed it along to many of his offspring. Pulpit is another sire that can pass along a temperamental attitude. His son Corinthian was a total nutcase. From what I've seen close up of some of Corinthian's babies, they have the same attitude as their sire. Tiznow babies are very determined gutsy runners who hate being smacked with a whip. Many times, you'll see a new Tiznow runner flag their tail in resentment when being smacked for the first time in a race. Giant's Causeways are also very strong, determined runners. But many offspring by Candy Ride will back down from a serious fight. Genetics, not luck, play a part in deciding the physical aspects. Each horse owns two sets of genetic instructions – a blueprint for the body’s appearance and function. One set is inherited from the horse’s sire and the other from the dam, so the sire and dam can each transmit only half their genetic material to a foal. The sire and dam each received a set of genetics from their parents, and so on. It's basically a role of the dice when it comes to what genetics a horse will carry. So, certain genes can be dominant through a particular line, or recessive and only show up occasionally. That means full siblings can carry different instructions - and explains why one horse can be an excellent racehorse or sire, while his full brother is a flop. For instance, Afleet Alex was a gutsy, talented performer who could run all day. He's becoming a decent sire as well. On the other hand, his full brother Unforgettable Max, who was two years older, has a totally different conformation. He won one listed stakes at 1 1/16 miles and placed in a few G2 & 3 class races. At stud, he's mostly forgettable. Mental qualities of the sire and dam are passed along to the offspring, but another important component in determining how well a horse will fare at the races is how it is raised and treated on and off of the track. Horses are very attuned to the moods and attitudes of the humans surrounding them. Just like in a human office, if you have a happy office, it is more productive than a sour one. The racing barn environment is the same way. Additionally, if a horse has a strong natural running style, and the trainer tries to change it, that can cause a horse to go off of his game. A horse that wants to be on the lead and hates to be restrained will lose a race if he isn't given the opportunity to do what he wants. When I compose pedigree profiles, not only do I explore the bloodlines, but I try to touch on conformation, the horse's inherent talent and running style. I feel all four aspects are equally important when determining what a horse can or can't do. Laura

In an open claiming race, would I be safe in throwing out any horses whose last race was an n2L or n3L in which they didn't win?

Dan - I'm putting together a Christmas present for my father and thought a nice thing to do would be to frame the pp's of the racehorses that he was a co-owner of back in the 80's. All of the horses ran at Canterbury Park in, I would say, 1987-89ish (I was pretty young at the time). The names of them were: Alterra, Guess Jeans, Diamond Vibes, and Starry Prospect. I'm not sure about the spelling of their names, but I thought I'd give it a whirl. Thanks in advance, Dan, for any help you may be able to provide.

Could I also throw them out in an Alwn1x or Alwn2x?

Curt V I guess I should have put an explanation with it before I posted it to the blog. My intent was that you could forward the site to your girlfriend, wife, or significant other (who we all know hate the amount of time we put into horse racing) and the site might keep them company for hours, days or even weeks while we're away doing what we do best (not sure what that is but I'll leave that up to each punters imagination). At any rate, it's an interesting site if you have the time for such nonsense.

oopps... MKB update Super Saver has no recent works, because he retired from racing in 2010. and to stud in 2011 to WinStar Farms, KY. I'm sure Hold Me Back and Super Saver will do me proud :)

Annie ...all this MKB talk had me wondering about my past horses and what they were up to recently. 2009 - Well Positioned- 5 yo. Has started working at AQU this month. Hold Me Back - 5 yo ..entered Stud in 2011 at WinStar Farms KY. 2010 - Spicer - 4 yo won this year a 48K MSW at Indiana Downs in June/ and came in 3rd at CD in a 25K claiming race this week. Laus Deo - No recent workouts Super Saver - owned with Spartan Tom , no recent workouts. 2010 KY Derby winner. 2011 - Dominus - was working this summer at SARA/BEL but no works since 9/26/11 Uncle Sam - owned with Meathead01 - recent works, and entered 11/17 at Hollywood .GO SAM! Cal Nation - was working this summer at SARA but no works since 9/18/11 Razmataz - No recent works 2012 ? ...Annie, I await the Genie's pick!! :)

Bernard Downes I saw this off of TDN- "Frankel Sparkles at Cartier Awards" ...Nice to see this fabulous colt win top honors. http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/intraday_single.cfm?type=news&alertID=1557&CFID=55191749&CFTOKEN=44159030 Something that caught my eye in the article was: "The prestigious awards, which were established in 1991, were determined by points earned in pattern races during 2010, combined with the opinions of a panel of racing journalists and votes from readers of Racing Post and Daily Telegraph." Can you give me a laymans version of the point system? I find this very interesting. Compared to our Eclispe Awards, & Horse of the Year honors which are based on a very different voting criteria. Selected 'professionals' in our business are allowed to nominate, and then vote on those Horses for the year end awards. ..I guess another question to ask, are The Cartier Awards the equivalent of our Eclispe Awards? Thanks! 'icuterv tem'

C, I'm going to disagree with your implication that Artest did not win like a good one. In rewatching his maiden win, here is what I saw: First, the splits were 21.77, 45.37 and 58.18 with Artest on the lead every step of the way and opening up by at least five by the wire. It was his first start. Second, behind him were Vexor and Finale, two who performed well enough subsequently to compete in the BC (Although both did poorly, I admit, still they got there and were well bet in both cases.) Third, I don't penalize horses for being pissed off by the whip. If a horse resents it, a jock needs to develop a better strategy to gain performance. Artest was straight as a string until he was hit. First, he was hit left handed, and he shifted out. Then right handed, and he shifted right back in. Personally, as a dressage rider, that's exactly what I expected my horse to do if I needed to use a whip to reinforce my leg cues. As for the tail flashing, it stopped the second the jock stopped whipping. I never say a horse is "green" because he resents the whip. Unless in the definition of "professional", it requires that a horse accepts without a negative reaction, being hit. For the record, I'm with Simon Bray and Donna Barton Brothers on the whip issue. Unless a horse is doing something outright dangerous like lugging in, drifting out, bolting, etc..., I want all whipping banned. Watching a horse giving it's all while coming down the stretch while being hit, turns my stomach. I'll never forgive Calvin Borel for hitting Rachel Alexandra 21 times in the Woodward. I'd be willing to bet that it was exactly that action that gutted her and made her sour toward racing. If you watch her as a four year old, she displayed none of the fire and competitive spirit she displayed at three. And can you blame her? She gave every ounce she had to give, all while being beaten. It was sickening. Many years ago, I owned a show horse named Chadds Ford who had been continuously whipped by a previous owner and the horse reacted so strongly to the whip, that he was thrown out of the Monmouth County Steeplechase Club as being dangerous. (Needless to say, I didn't find out about this until after I bought him............someone told me when they recognized the horse at a show.) As a new rider, I rarely carried a whip, as I was still learning to use my hands, legs and seat independently and that was hard enough without trying to hold the reins and a whip at the same time. Over time, Chadd trusted me and was an absolute gentleman, to the point where my three year old son could ride him. One day, my trainer was working on the horse in preparation for a competition. He hit him when the horse bore out, and the pro was dumped. He got back on and hit Chadd again............and got dumped. Once many months later when it was hot and Chadd was lazy, I used the whip and hit the ground in about two seconds flat. Moral of the story: Don't use a whip on a horse that hates it...............and by the way, we took the championship of every single show we ever entered and I was usually the only rider who did not carry a whip or wear spurs. Chadd was very professional, just one who hated, with a passion, the whip. It just took horsemanship and skill to get the best out of him without resulting to brute force. Personally, someone whips me, I'd react much more strongly than just flashing my tail. :)

Keith L., What's w/you my man ? It looks like you did it to me again...I took your clue & looked at the Bloodhorse.com article on Rachel, Zenyatta & the "Migs"{Richard Migliore}. I'm sure glad I actually read the article. I could have fixated on the wonderful Photo's. Butts:No..I did read it..After talking about how great the aura was being in the presence of 2 of the greatest females he ever witnessed, the Mig iterated..Then of course he had to mention the GREATEST HORSE of all time.. It's only fitting I suppose. Since Z couldn't get the Slewster himself, & didn't want A.P Indy, she took the next best thing...I leave you w/the following........ "Last fall, he said, “When you get inside a horse’s space, you can feel their energy, and sometimes, you can’t believe what you’re feeling. I’ve been around a lot of great horses, so it’s not like I go ‘ooh’ and ‘aah’ because they’re good horses. But feeling her energy was a genuine sensation that I had only felt when I was around Seattle Slew at the farm. It’s hard to describe, but it’s similar to the feeling you get walking into Churchill Downs on Derby Day. I just know with Zenyatta and Slew I’ve never felt anything like that in my life…never........." Oh!! That Slewster himself....."When U got Slewster, you got Horse.........." Did I mention Bernardini's fee has doubled this year from 75K to 150K ? Being that A.P. Indy hasn't had zilch on Poly...It's gotta be the Slewster Himself.........the Slew could run on Marbles...... Thanx, my man.........See you in Seattle...........

Concerning several recent posts concerning some back and forth bloggery. Solid points from Pissing Contestant - humility, post your picks, and great teachers on blog. The Blog world could be a bit rosier without the acrimony. But I leave that up to Hilary Clinton, State Department and the United Nations. Personally I just try to respect everyone's point of view. I don't have to agree, don't have to read but I do and by the way I read every single one personally ugly or straight up informative. Invest the time cutting thru the fog and you will find there simply is a lot of great information shared here. I have no problem culling thru some bravado and an occassional harsh word or two to see what hard core race followers are thinking. Most of us are smart enough to fast forward thru posts that are not on point with our needs. A few things I "think" I know about good horse players; we don't like losing hence some "whining" should be expected and allowed, most us of "think" we are smarter than the crowd (parimutuel betting is based on me versus them) so when it comes to horses so some bragging or outlandishness is par for the course, and finally most of us especially myself take guidance or instruction best in small doses. After 37 years of playing horses a handicapping 180 is likely not in the cards but a subtle refinement gleened from other respected peers is very possible. So I plan to just keep reading. Occassionally I will add my two cents where appropriate and enjoy the Sheriff Dan ride. One final uplifting note - what were your parents thinking when they named you Pissing Constestant?

Laura and Annie, Interesting posts. Thanks. If it is a "roll of the dice" as to which genetics a horse carries, breeding is very risky business. You obviously need to be an optimist (and wealthy) to get involved. And buying unraced yearlings must be even more risky? Have you heard the theory about never buying horses with 4 white socks? Meathead01, I am not greatly into royalty. The Queen does a nice job, but I can take or leave the rest of the family. Given the amount of income tax I am paying, I do hope you Americans are paying for Harry's training as a goodwill gesture. Regards - Bernard Downes

Bernard Downes ...and if you haven't already checked out our Laura's site. Here is the link for her Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds , which is all about what you are asking for. http://www.ironmaidensthoroughbreds.com/ Besides, she throws some great Pre-race Handicapping Parties in her Chat Room :)

Jonah Nice to have yuo back for another MKB derby prospect this season ...Dont forget, if you would like to be part of Laura's IMS Syndicate again, let her know! ....as she is giving 'first call' to those who were in it last year. Bernard Downes "What about the mental side of things" what a great question. For some additional informed and interesting insights, check out Calvin Carters site http://classicchampionthoroughbreds.blogspot.com/ Here's a previous thread that touched on what you asked: http://classicchampionthoroughbreds.blogspot.com/2011_09_01_archive.html and the Thomas herding technique. http://thomasherdingtechnique.com/index.php If you can, take some time to check it out Kerry Thomas and Calvin Carter have a joint book comming out this spring. Which was touched on briefly in this thread.

Some on here have have been kind enough to welcome my questions (more likely, tolerate them). Can I ask another? Having read all that Jersey Act stuff I got to thinking about the breeding aspect of racing. I take some note of breeding when betting (optimum distances, ground preferences, successful first season sires), but for some on this blog, breeding seems to be a religion. So, Question. I take it that the breeding is supposed to produce certain physical attributes. But what are they? Presumably good set of lungs, big powerful backside for sprinters, but what about general conformation? Is that a product of the parents, or just pot luck? What about the mental side of things. Some horses are blessed with more will to win than other horses. Is that the product of breeding or training? Over here, Montjeu's offspring are thought to possess the quirkiness of the sire - very talented, but a bit spooky, sometimes liable to throw races away under pressure. Does this whole process have links to human beings? Do the children of great athletes possess some of their parents powers? Many years go, two of our more successful Olympic athletes got it together and produced a son. He became a decent footballer, but nothing special, but his main attribute was that he could run all day. Luck, or part of a natural process? Regards - Bernard Downes

Annie: May I please have a MKB horse this year. Thank You

meathead01, Thanks for the interest. I think a signed copy can be arranged. When I have more information about the book, I'll pass it on. Thanks.

Dan, I'm so glad you and Mike are back to your regular videos. Blackstone has rightly warned me not to listen too much to public handicappers, or anyone else for that matter, in deciding on my bets, but I still think nobody does a better job than you at breaking down a race and illuminating the significant points, and I get a lot out of it. Annie, The 2011 MKB was a great experience for me, and was my first lesson in thoroughbred pedigree, and in many other aspects of the game. Heck, before the MKB I didn't even know there was a Triple Crown, let alone a trail of races to follow. I also had some glorious moments watching the talented The Factor when he was at his best, and saw how greatness can come and go in this fragile sport. This year I won't have the rookie excuse, but I'm ready. Sign me up! Blackseabass, Your posts have been great. Your latest fancy of dream match-ups was terrific, and I was hoping it might inspire others. You and Mike A probably misunderstood each other--he often tells me he's a specialist for a reason, to leave the best overall to others (like Dan or you). More importantly, who cares about the best? You, Mike, and the others with decades of experience have so much to share, and I'm glad you do. I get something new almost every day I read the this blog. Go team. Laura, Alan, Steve T, or Other Techies, I still have a list of links to Formbloggers' favorite races from way back when, which I've watched a number of times now, but I'm not sure the best way to post them where anyone can access them. If I put them into a Youtube playlist, do people have to subscribe to my list to see it? Steve T, could we put them on your website? I also want to share a couple videos from a good friend, the one who gave me my start last year when he said, "So, you want to be a handicapper?" to which I replied, "What? No, I just want to learn how to bet horse races." I still wish there were a better word for it. "I'm into handicapping horses" rarely scores points. While I'm at it, can I rename "Breeders' Cup," too? Apart from the fact that in my city "breeder" usually means "heterosexual," wouldn't something like "Thoroughbred Championships" be more appealing? Anyway, Rick's family had a horse called Notorious Pleasure that they loved very much. These are his notes: "The first is the Will Rogers Handicap. He was a 3-year-old and this was his second start on turf and his first stake race. http://youtu.be/J8Dr3x7SLcY This is the 1990 Col. Koester Handicap. It is now called the Oak Tree Mile and is a prep for the Breeders Cup Mile. The grey horse in this race was Fly Til Dawn who, as you will see in the next video, later became Notorious Pleasure's stablemate. After this race Notorious Pleasure was injured and didn't run again until the following summer after some time off and a trainer change. http://youtu.be/tQbBexzSSEA This is the 1991 Citation Handicap. There were so many entrants it was split into two divisions. Notorious was in the first division with Val des Bois who had just finished 2nd in the Breeders Cup Mile 4 weeks earlier. The first three finishers were coming off a blanket finish at Oak Tree in an allowance race where the time was something crazy - I believe 1:44 4/5 for 1 1/8 m on turf. (That race went to Classic Fame, a Grade 1 winner by Nijinsky, by a nose over Notorious. It was a heart breaker.) The second division of the Citation was won by Fly Til Dawn who was Notorious Pleasure's stable mate. They had the same groom even and lived in neighboring stalls. Fly Til Dawn had previously won the Budweiser International a $750,000 Grade 1. Also, I'm sure you've heard of Best Pal - he was second in that division. (BTW, this was also the last race Laffit Pincay would ride Notorious. There was a point on the backstretch that Laffit felt he took a bad step and thought he was injured. For an instant, he considered pulling him out of the race but Notorious recovered and continued on. Laffit had been Notorious Pleasure's only rider for about 2 1/2 years at that point.) I should also note that there is a life-sized photo of the turn for home of this race at the back of the Hollywood Park grandstand. http://youtu.be/oNJjr02YukU" Enjoy, Jonah

"One promising Hard Spun is running Friday at Aqueduct, Artest is his name. He has won like a good one, but I suspect there was either an issue or some growing to do because after a terrific maiden score, the horse went on the shelf for awhile." I'd bet on some kind of issue, not "growing". Debut winners usually don't go to the shelf for no reason. I haven't been able to dig much up on this one though. I thought he looked extremely green in his debut... another tail-flasher. Watch his tail jump every time he feels the whip... then watch him swerve all over the track. Talented, but certainly didn't look like a professional that day.

Annie -- I also would love to participate in MKB this year. Thanks! Dave B.

Calvin Carter Always nice seeing your posts, and look forward to morer of your thoghts. Until recently I was having some propblems posting comments at your site ( all fixed now) Any date as to when the book may be released?

Annie, Much like Steve T., it just seems that any horse I get involved with via my own crush or through MKB eventually has a problem. Thankfully, my MKB horses are still alive and well but they have had to overcome my poor ownership "luck". I don't want to impose such "luck" on any upcoming three year old; they'll have enough to overcome without my added weight. Thus, I will opt out of becoming an "owner" this year. However, I will leave open the door for future years, if that is allowed. I will be watching, on ESPN, your MKB draw (Out of which I am "Sure" the 2012 Derby winner will be drawn) and look forward to reading the comments of the "new" owners over the coming months. LOL

C I liked what you posted, and you do say it better than I could have.

Wacky what can i say every time i go against the pats i get *STUFFED* and i mean *STUFFED* keithL speaking of Jailbait i remember when u made that comment 2 Chicago Jerry several yrs ago concerning me & the formblog convention in Chicago he didn't take 2 kindly 2 u reading him the *Mann Act* lol btw, my JailBaits yrs r long gone well maybe not long but there in the rear view mirror Chicago Jerry we miss u Wacky i'm listening 2 the post game show on the Patroits radio station Blah Blah Blah VQ

IT'S JACKPOT TIME! Yes, FormBloggers, it is time for DELTA JACKPOT and DELTA PRINCESS this weekend. Saturday's daytime card will include six additional stakes races. Who's in? I'm attending for fifth time in last six years. Got started with big win with Birdbirdistheword in 2006! Also, became Big Drama fan after his 2008 victory. Very excited that Bob Baffert will ship Drill to this year's edition. His dad, Lawyer Ron, ran very well at Evangeline Downs and Louisiana Downs during his career. Hopefully, he will enjoy Sabine Sand this Saturday. Undercard angle is one that works at many tracks where multiple horses ship in for stakes-filled card. Watch for horses trained by those who have horse entered in Jackpot and/or Princess. It is always funtime at funky lil' track that is almost in Texas!

This is getting juicy. My vote is for people to start posting picks PH style to avoid this "had the exacta" nonsense. I've been noticing that phenomenon too, Pissing Contestant (edgy name, young blood). Race recaps are constantly revising posted analyses with mysterious changes of hearts and unspecified key horses that must spawn from ego swell hallucinations. Also, if any two handicappers had license to feud it would be C and Steve T (the Biggie and Tupac of Formblog handicappers). BSB and Mike A is like... well a rap analogy would be wasted here but you get where I'm coming from. James, Saratoga was playing about as slow as you are that day, but bravo on some vintage Crist and co. lines. I don't like the way he bullies Watchmaker in their bits. He's always so condescending... and that's just taking a swipe at low-hanging fruit.

hey dan, this is way out in left field but does anybody know if there is bad blood amonst the assmussian brothers cause i once asked steve @ saratoga a few years ago "hey, hows cash doing'' & i swear this guy looked at me like, well lets just say if looks could kill............and you never see any horses that cash has "formully trained by steve assumussian" not to start any rumours just thought i'd put it out there dan

Annie Can I get an MKB horse? He will keep me company, and help drown my sorrow over not being allowed to run in the BC Turf---which I would have won easily, BTW, since no one ever loses to a horse named after an old church. Eagerly awaiting your response, Ricky U U U U

Calvin Interesting indeed............Mike A

The HG race (Delta Downs Race 8) is THURSDAY. (Thank you for catching that goof SR Vegas) :-)

Keith Jonah can verify.....if you'd like. BSB..............no I meant they knew what I meant by what I said, Calvin and I have been doing this for a couple of years now, we get on horses early and see how they pan out. We both liked Eskenereya, he got hurt, calvin liked Super Saver, I liked Lookin at Lucky more. Last year we both liked Animal Spirits in November, he got back to the races late......Calvin Stuck with him I put him second. Hence he beat me twice.........It has nothing to do with who is better than whom, what you posted, or who you picked. You're better than me......good......What that will get you I don't know, but there it is........Mike A

Calvin ..you are making me blush. One day we will meet, and I'll get a big hug . Now I have more than the KY Derby to look forward to next spring :) Bernard Downes .."a little sadistic.." or not, you fit in with this crew just fine. Love the 'Trigger' reference ! Uncle Steve Thanks for the Blue Baby Alert, & pedigree lesson . Where DO you find the time? 'civil beforin'

"C" As in the case with both City Strut and Count Catamount they were the only real speed in either race, quality speed......there have been over 30 races on turf so far.....you say one horse went gate to wire.....and besides the one I mentioned you say 3 others who were in the lead got second.....those weren't ridiculous long shots by the way, they were all bet horses. One horse in thirty or so......I never said stalkers weren't winning, I said speed in front wasn't winning.....1 in 30 isn't winning. You say Aqueduct doesn't favor front runners....or at least allude to it....I suggest you go back to last year and the year before and check again. We're talking Aqueduct, not some other turf course......"C"...I know how these courses play from year to year, give me that one.......Mike A

Keith L. A Single Man, the horse. In his 2 races I think he passed about 4 horses. I don't know what you see in him. I know he's a Slewster, butts: on the track he aint acting like one. I do see though that he's got 2 latest Bullets. & he is not currently listed as an entrant anywhere. So in consideration of time, I'll let you be my eyes & ears my man..Which leads to me too::::: Steve T., Okay.....Vader ? Out of Vindication....I'm buying, butts: @5/2 ? Okay...As long as you post who's running 2nd. I know..I'll have to wait for your selections like everybody else...LoL....Post them by Thursday, 'cause if you post on Friday, & this site is wobbling, I'll be long gone..or is that "I'll be Doggon-ed if I don't give you my pay...............Marvin G.............. okiesharp, Nice site..Oldiestelevision.com>>butts:How do you search in there ? It takes forever to scroll & I aint got forever.....Am I missing it ? Sr Vegas, California girls are hip, I really dig most...................Butts:the midwest farmers daughter makes you warm at night....or is that the Northern ? I'm winging it girl..........I take a print Bikini........ butts:the California gets the sunshine & the girls all get so tan.........next time I look it up.......LoL...

Ron Z "Many times WCS is moot because we know what to do, it is the implementing of the knowing what to do which is the hardest part." I loved this. I am more and more convinced that handicapping, psychology, and philosophy have a very large intersection. Your thoughtful comments have helped me a lot this year. I hope to be able to keep improving as time goes on. Thanks.

Grown men needing to validate themselves and their abilities to others over the internet... I got over that when I was twelve. One of the few benefits to growing up in the age of technology. The act is tiresome, but I try to learn from everything I can, so I thank you on behalf of the new generation of handicappers for your lessons in humility. If I may draw an analogy, there has been some sarcastic discussion of betting losers to prove a point. The touting and squabbling? The losing bet. The point proven? Be humble. Nothing is less appealing than a braggart except a braggart who is an adult who does his bragging to strangers over the internet. I have learned a lot from some of the older folks here who have had the time to amass the knowledge necessary for greatness. I appreciate it. Many of the literate people here whose posts I read are kind, generous individuals from whom I have learned a great deal. I myself don't post often, as my first wager was on Court Vision in the '08 Derby (I wasn't nostalgic in the mile. I had Strong Suit.) I have many things to learn and, fortunately, many great teachers here to learn from. I hope that certain individuals can swallow their pride (and not asphyxiate themselves in the process - maybe cut it into small pieces) and take a tip from a younger, worse handicapper: enough with this garbage. If you want people to think you're elite, post your picks! If they win, we know how good you are. If that's what you need to fulfill yourselves, by all means, be my guest. But I am not the only one who's sick of sifting through this stuff. You can teach lessons without dropping "had the exacta" at the end. In my experience, the truly great ones go about their business without having to let everyone else in the room know how great they are. I don't care about your win streaks, I don't care how good you are, or how good you think I am, or how good you think you are. I care how good I am. technology ehenking - noun - the condition under which technology makes descent people act stupidly because they can hide behind it

BLUE BABY ALERT Three year old colt VADER (Vindication x Ultrafleet) will make his debut on Friday at Hollywood Park in the third race, a six furlong turf sprint for straight maidens. Ultrafleet is the dam of Cambiocorsa and California Flag, two of the best that ever ran the downhill. Here are the progeny of Ultrafleet: 1997-C FLEETWOOD JACK (Personal Flag x Ultrafleet) 4-M-0-0, $60 1998-F DEMO MEMO (Memo x Ultrafleet) 18-3-2-3, $107,653 1999-C FLEET STREET JACK (Avenue of Flags x Ultrafleet) 10-0-0-1, $4,730 2000-C SHADOW RAIDER (Memo x Ultrafleet) 62-10-10-8, $315,517 2001-F ULTRA CHIC (Smokester x Ultrafleet) 14-0-2-3, $11,043 2002-F CAMBIOCORSA (Avenue of Flags x Ultrafleet) 18-9-0-3, $522,055 2004-C CALIFORNIA FLAG (Avenue of Flags x Ultrafleet) 24-10-0-2, $1,177,255 2006-C UNPARALLELED (Unusual Heat x Ultrafleet) 0-0-0-0, Unraced 2007-F PLATINUM MINE (Memo x Ultrafleet) 8-1-2-0, $58,460 2008-C VADER (Vindication x Ultrafleet) 0-M-0-0, Debuts 11-18 2009-F COSMOPOLITAN (Harlan’s Holiday x Ultrafleet) 1-M-0-0, $350 2010-F BIEN ROULEE (Bernardini x Ultrafleet) 0-0-0-0, Yearling 2011-F CASHMERE (Cowboy Cal x Ultrafleet) 0-0-0-0, Weanling Now before you race to the windows, let’s take a look at how this family has done in their debuts, how many races did it take to break their maiden, and the surface and distance they won on: Fleetwood Jack – ran four races and never finished better than 8th. Demo Memo – won on her 8th try at Sacramento (6F dirt) in an MSW. Fleet Street Jack – ran ten times with only one board hit. Shadow Raider – won in his fifth start at Hollywood, 5 ½ furlongs on dirt in am MCL-25 Ultra Chic – never made the winners circle in 14 tries. Cambiocorsa – won in her second start, her first time on the hill in an MSW. California Flag – won in his fourth race, at a mile on turf at Santa Anita in an MSW. Platinum Mine – won in her eighth try, her first time on the hill in an MSW. Cosmopolitan – had one run at Del Mar and two at Remington Park with one 3rd. So even though this is a pretty decent bunch of turf sprinters, none have grabbed the brass ring on the first go round. If the odds get screwy (>15/1), I would look closer, but I think it is safe to wait on this one until he gets some more experience. Almost all of the progeny of this dam did not break their maiden until 4, only Cambiocorsa did it at 3. So the delayed start for Vader may be a good thing. Let’s take a look at one more thing, any foals from the daughters of the dam: Demo Memo – has five foals, three have made it to the races, only one has won (at age 3 at Santa Anita in an MCL-40 on ProRide). Ultra Chic – has two foals, both were winners (one debut), one at two and one at four. Cambiocorsa – has two foals, Schiaparelli won his debut at 3 in a turf sprint at Hollywood (and has not been seen since), and Vionnet ran 4th last month in her debut on dirt at Santa Anita last month. Okay, so why a full write up on a horse you think is not a great bet in his debut? For a couple of reasons, first I have been touting these Ultrafleets in turf sprints, but each needs to be evaluated in their own right, and I don’t want anyone to blindly bet based on the dam; second I think it is important to list the steps you take in evaluating a blue baby and whether they are a good bet in a particular race at a particular point in time. Yesterday, Empire Way, the full brother to Royal Delta won his debut; which is not surprising when you consider that his sister won in her debut, their dam (Delta Princess) won in her debut, Delta Princess’ dam won in her debut, their sire Empire Maker won in his debut, his sire Unbridled won in his debut, and his sire Fappiano won in his debut… Get the picture? Do you think it was a stretch for Empire Way to win in his debut? Here, let me think – okay 4+17/52.33 over pi… Uhh, yeah I think that was a good debut bet. Not to mention he had the works to back it up and his 5/2 looks like a bargain after the fact. The longer I deal with pedigrees the more I understand that the capabilities and proclivities of the parents are the attributes of the foal, which explains why you see the same things in families over and over again. In the case of Ultrafleet, it is all about late developing turf sprinters, especially on the hill. In the case of Delta Princess, it is all about precocious dirt routers. You will also see that they tend to mature at the same time, precocious parents begat precocious two year olds (seen enough 2 year old Unbridled’s Song sensations?). Some are late maturing like Pleasantly Perfect or Rock Hard Ten who seems to get distance turfers who don’t start running until late in their 3 year old year, or our old buddy Unusual Heat whose male progeny seem to not get good until they are 4 and 5 – The Usual Q.T., Acclamation, Unusual Suspect, Lennyfromalibu, Mensa Heat. Yet the fillies seem to come into their own at 3 – Lethal Heat, Bel Air Sizzle, Christiana’s Heat, Golden Doc A. How far back does it carry? Depends on the family, but it is usually deeply rooted. Look at Empire Maker, he has had his fill of really good 2 and 3 year olds (Royal Delta, Pioneerof the Nile, Country Star, Grace Hall). Since Toussaud, Empire Maker’s dam, is a serious blue hen, what have the rest of her children done – and do they follow the pattern? Actually they do – her sons Chester House, Chiselling, Civilisation, and Decarchy all get solid 2 and 3 year olds. Her daughters – Honest Lady (dam of First Defence), Mesmeric (her first, Modulate, by Mizzen Mast is working at Payson for her debut), Tinge, and Tolerance, fit the profile as well. I know that many people consider pedigrees some pseudo-science that is esoteric and of minimal value at the track. They couldn’t be more wrong – pedigree is more powerful than any stat out there, much more predictive, and it frames the capability and placement of the runner. Was it surprising to see Perfect Shirl, a sister to Shakespeare, Lady Shakespeare, and Fantastic Shirl win the Filly and Mare Turf? The history and family says they like turf and they like distance, and they can do it at the top level. Or Royal Delta and Empire Way? Or Cambiocorsa and California Flag? I think we know that quality dams produce quality runners, but we also need to recognize that the similarities in families are startling, whether it is at the Breeders Cup or in a $5k Claimer. You can bet an A.P. Indy on Poly, but I wouldn’t advise it – they are 0/the last five years at Del Mar, and yes one gets through on a rare occasion at Keeneland and Arlington, but it is about a 1% proposition. We argued back and forth about Uncle Mo, but the fact remains, out of 1267 Indian Charlie babies, only one, Fleet Indian, has ever won at 10F, and that was in a painful 2:05. We can talk about his liver, the pace, whatever, but they just don’t have the history. Now there is a new “hot” colt out in SoCal, his name is Liaison and he is by… Indian Charlie. And even though Victory Gallop is his damsire, I think the odds are stacked against him. Based on what? Based on 1267 Indian Charlies. Blue babies are a great way to make big bucks, but do your homework and know what you are up against.

Curt V "I prefer "California Girls" myself..." HA! I knew there was something special about you :)

There is always a load of knowledge on here, but it strikes me there are a lot of competing egos on the blog. It may be a little sadistic but can I say keep it up folks, its great entertainment. Just read all the "Jersey Act" stuff on Google (from the previous thread). Not very friendly of us Brits. They probably wanted to keep out all those cowboy horses who galloped for hours up hill and down dale. That said I would love to have seen Roy Rogers' Trigger on a racecourse. Real beauty on four legs. Regards - Bernard Downes

MikeA, "that still goes, not one horse has won gate to wire." Summer Breezing did... and those who tracked him ran 2, 3, 4. Nobody really closed ground there. Slow pace though. Hit it Rich didn't technically go wire-to-wire, but only had to put away 1 rival before drawing off. "Today was the first day other than opening day (as I mentioned) that a horse that went out early managed to hold second." What about City Strut? He set a decent pace as well. How about Count Catamount the day before? Claiming a turf course is biased is very tricky because grass naturally favors off-the-pace types and closers anyway. Early speed is rarely as much of a positive on turf as it is on dirt. That's not a particularly provocative statement... but it doesn't mean the course's condition is producing a bias above and beyond the typical preference to off-the-pace runners. Mike, "How is it that so many of you are so certain that Goldikova 'mugged' or otherwise interfered with Courageous Cat. Mr. Head never mentioned it, the DRF chart doesn't mention it, and I've never seen any angle but the run of the race." Like BSB, I have to wonder what race you were watching. Why would you expect Head to mention it? What is he going to say... "my horse should've been taken down and placed last"? DRF charts regularly miss a lot of details you can only get by waching the race. I would never rely on charts in lieu of race watching... actually, if you watch races, you don't even need the charts... they're a total waste of paper.

P ensign, Julio Garcia is one of my "decepticon" riders, He is grossly underrated and if the horse has any talent he will get him home. His lifetime record is 8890-1294-1118-1073 with earnings north of $35M.

So, here is my question (and I might re-post it if Dan updates shortly thereafter, so apologies, if needed, in advance). It concerns Sunday's 6th at Santa Anita. Now, I understand that horses sometimes cannot be gotten ready for their debut through works, and the trainer is giving them a race. That is what Mike Harrington was supposedly doing with Empire Way earlier the same day, only Empire had other plans. I'm fine with that. I'm just mentioning it as an example of what I'm *not* talking about (and also because I really liked that win). Moving on, in the 6th, there was a debuting filly called Conjure the Spirit. I had been following this horse as she is one of Lawyer Ron's few, and she is out of a mare that was a pretty good mare and has produced well. The connections seem solid enough. No fast works. Horse totally dead on the board -- private clockers thinking she didn't look good maybe? Anyway, she was never asked to run at all. She broke last, and was allowed to simply trail and run around the racetrack. There was no attempt by the jockey to get her into the race at any time (that I saw... she was off the TV screen pretty fast). Is that something the stewards look at? Isn't there supposed to be a good-faith attempt on the part of every competitor to win the race? It wasn't like she was with the field and dropped out -- there just seemed to be no intention to have her in the race whatsoever. (No, I didn't need her for any bets... I needed Special Charm, Lovestealer and La Malaguena which, oh well.) So do the stewards look at it when a horse that appears healthy is not asked during a race? is my question.

Ron Z , I let my bet on The BC mile go at the 3/16ths pole. LOL. Goldi up or down wouldn't have made a bit of difference to me monetarily. Of C-horse when I read a post like the one I referenced I want to have a little fun with it. Like Joe Willie used to say , "if you're gonna go then go all the way "

SR Vegas, The written part of the book is finished. Kerry and I are also compiling pictures for the book and hope to wrap it up by the end of this month. Next will be the proofing process with the final product to be at the printer no later than February for release sometime in the spring of 2012 just before the Kentucky Derby. The book will be available for pre-purchase at a discount rate and when I have that information I’ll post a link. One sometimes never knows how he or she impacts other lives but I can say without reservation that the book would never have been possible without you convincing me to begin posting on Dan’s blog several years ago. That led to a friendship with another poster and that friend introduced me to Kerry Thomas. Thank you for your friendship and support SR Vegas.

Keith, Turf racing naturally favors closers; that much is not news. I haven't seen particular evidence of any bias at Aqueduct that is further hurting front-runners though. Jeff, SRV, A case can be made for any winner of any race after the fact. There are always angles to be seen no matter who wins; some of those angles are more obscure and irrelevant than others. I'm afraid there is nothing to be learned from the Court Visions of the world other than 'sh*t happens'. Next year, one might play every similar-looking horse that has a long string of workouts, high Beyers, top-10 earnings, whatever, and come up totally snake-eyes. Let's say we all learn our lesson and the same field lines up again in 3 weeks. I wonder how many would bet Court Vision even then. Results like this seem to occur in the Breeders Cup 1-3 times a decade. They are not always impossible to cash in on either. I'm sure there are a few people out there who honestly liked Court Vision and thought he represented good value. Those of us who didn't, however, have to avoid the temptation of being too reactive. That is actually a form of scared money. If we're supposed to learn a lesson here to avoid letting another Court Vision escape us, then we might as well bet every horse in every race because I think most of us would agree that they all had many more relevant angles working for them. Should we suddenly ignore those factors in favor of the few angles Court Vision had going for him next time? Sounds like a ticket to the poor house to me.

MikeA , I don't expect everybody to have near total recall like I do. Thats why the reminder. I posted the BSBFFF numbers for every MKB soon after the MKB draw to show everybody something they wouldn't find ANYWHERE else. ( I won't be doing that this time as I felt the trouble I went to was not fully appreciated. I can do it for myself the day before the race & only have to do 20 horses) About a doZen of those MKBs had the statistical advantage of being BSBFFF1s. The rest were fighting city hall. Your particular MKB was a BSBFFF7 (like AraZi) which made him a straight line throw out. No 7 has ever won the derby. I told everybody that I would bet some money on every BSBFFF1 in the race. I'll do that again this year. Will I have the winner again ? I don't know . Its 50/50. I did bet Comma to the Top. I also bet Animal Kingdom. I did bet Sydneys Candy . I also bet Super Saver. "I didn't have to include them because they already know" They already know what Mike ? That you are better than them ? I'll say this as bluntly as can be said, you're good, but you ain't better than me. You have a good amount of knowledge, but its limited in comparison to mine. If those others want to concede that you are their superior, as you imply they do, thats up to them. I don't . I'm sure you can understand how someone that has stayed ahead of the game for decades might feel that way.

Okiesharp, "Please put me down for a MKB horse. I'd prefer one that doesn't run too long in one spot. LOL"....... Now, that's what I call downright funny........& creative...... BTW: I prefer "California Girls" myself...I saw those old Geezers up here at Penn's Peak for last years X-Mas Special........Man, they old...... XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX Like I've repeatedly said for about the last 5 months. The self-adulation on this blog & the condescenion Up-level by a limited few, is enough to Gag the Abominable Snowman.....Forget the spoon, we need a front-end loader........I don't know what it is..Actually I sure do & I mean it. I do.....Butts: It's so damned obvious, it's absolutely ridiculous. Maybe the authors need somebody independent to proof read their Trumpet.....'Cause they sure can blow a horn........... Their own........& Don't tell me to stop, either. I suggest you tell them to stop......

Here's a link for some of you old timers who have forgotten what it was like a few years ago. http://www.oldiestelevision.com/

Monday... VQ I thought when the Jets rolled right down the field in the opening drive, it was light's out... Pats hold them to a field goal...What, he missed a 22 yard field goal....... Changed the whole game around...The Jets were done after that... Didn't bet a dime on the game. Annie made a pot roast that cooked for 6 hours..MM Good!! Aqueduct Late Pick 4 !!! $23.00 // $5.50 // $185.50 // $38.40 // = $100,865 Payoff Who said that it was foolish to play Pick 4's and Pick 5's ?????? Was that you Keith L ??? Great work if you can get it??? Good Luck this week and the Pats have the lead in the East with 7 cream puffs to play... Whackymacky Out!!!

Tencentcielo "The race for this week's HG is the 8th @ Delta Downs, a 1st-level allowance for LA-Breds going 7f." Nice selection....but, would that be on Wed 11/16 for fillies & mares or Thurs 11/17 for the horses ? as both races fit that description :)

Curt V: Outstanding on your "Papa has a brand new bag" adaptation. Glad you freaked on the video. Mike A: Somehow I just knew you had Midnight Billy with Hyer in Aqueduct's Ninth,; of course you woulda, shoulda, coulda and we will all take it on faith that you actually did! Annie, dear: I'm sorry, did that remark ruffle your feathers? Not looking for trouble (well,maybe?), more like a good natured poke, perhaps. Wait...I didn't mean I'm looking for a "poke", or...or maybe I should just shut up now? All: Apparently John Servis and Stew Elliot (of Smarty Jones fame) are on to another Philly based 2 yr old, although this one does not have Smarty's brilliance. Nice to see it. Re-watched some old 2 yr old races, beginning with the BC Juvie and wondered if Alpha's acting up in the gate, and quick trip in the early going (not his style) was a result of his being cranked out of his gord for that effort. I'm not ready to write this one off on that result. Looked back also to the Sept 1&1/8th for 2 yr olds in which Spreightscity made his mark, and remembered he did all the work chasing Hansen early, and pressing him going into the final turn. Gave up the ghost there, but he is still one to watch in my book. I already discussed my liking for Creative Causeway and Dullahan's finish in the BC Juvenile as prognosticators of success on the Triple Crown Trail, but also was more favorable impressed in that AP Indy King runner who did all his work on the slow inside rail trip, getting the mistaken call by Trevor for a 4th place finish. He was nosed by Hansen for 4th, but ran a good race nonetheless. Also, that unusual 2 yr old race at Saratoga was where A Single Man, Zito's Bernardini-Victory Gallop mare's product did some late running to get up for 4th behind the runaway Spreightscity...and I'm looking for him to show up at Gulstream for Nick also. Recall that the Victory Gallop influence tends to come on a little later in a horses maturity...but it could be they try this one on turf too. Keep this Slewster one in mind too, Curt V. BTW: If any want to see Steve Haskin at his best again, check out his blog link on the front page of www.Bloodhorse.com...a delightful description of his, the "Migs" and a NYRA videologists' visit to see Zenyatta and Rachal Alexandra during BC week. Really priceless writing and some photos to boot! Keith L.

PGM.................I'll add that filly to the file I keep Never Retreat in......she fooled me for sure. AS to Trac and Jam......I had to include her and at least convince myself it was ok to do so........I wasn't thrilled with her last loss either.......but what the heck, I wasn't betting a fortune. Keith...........It's what is know as a joke.......yes, I bet the 3 to show everyone the bias.....today I'll play another front runner on the turf course for those who aren't sure.........I didn't expect the three to take the lead, if you read what I said previously......when she did I knew I was done, hence the "took one for the team" Perhaps I shouldn't have said anything so guy's like you who have the lone speed at AQU can scratch their heads after the race and wonder why??...............Don't be a cheerleader, it doesn't suit you.....Mike A

Curt V: With regards to the Whitney and my last comment to Bernard, you have to know that I was being sarcastic about the mysterious "backrake". As I said at the time, the Whitney was slow, painfully slow, slowest in half a century. Instead of confronting the raw data on its face, you and Crist and Beyer and several others tried to explain it away as an aberration due to track condition. I pretty much demolished that argument at the time, Crist and his royal fiat (which basically amounted to him saying that he was right and I was wrong in place of an actual argument) notwithstanding. Now that we've just had a BC Classic run in 26 last quarter, I think it's fairly evident that I was right all along and that these horses simply aren't very good. The thing that struck me though about the whole thing was that you guys were perfectly willing to accept a track manipulation, unannounced to the bettors, that you claimed slowed down the track by 2 seconds or more, without a word of complaint about NYRA or anybody else. I agree with you that the track(s) are manipulated mid-card all the time, without a word to the bettors. In the instance of the Whitney, there was no significant impact, but to me it is highly significant that the majority of horseplayers were willing to accept the notion of such a manipulation before one of the biggest races of the year without a whimper of complaint. I think that best illustrates the lack of respect we are treated with. Which was basically my point to Bernard. Ron Z, I went overboard with the larcenous scum comment, I should have applied that to the trainers. To correct the record, I do not believe that track maintenance personnel are deliberately altering things to favor one horse or another, they just do what they do and it is not their job, I guess, to make sure we horseplayers have it explained to us. They are just part of the general disrespect we get in the industry. But let's face it, they are inconsistent and weird, look at the refusal to let the Euro turf horses train on the turf after Hank Goldberg spilled his thermos over the rail last Thursday.

It seems some of the formblogers woke on wrong side of bed this morn. VQ dear dont let it get 2 you. The never ending woulda coulda shoulda and chest beating is a much a part of this wonderful game that is our common thread. Over the many years of being around horse players you develope thick skin an know when 2 fold them. (believeabilty) Who cares who says what? When i read most comments from blog its the ones that leave me with a smile i remember foremost. Like most of yours. I consider u a most read. thank you all. peace and good luck.

Annie, I am not playing the MKB draw this year either, seeing that BOTH of my previous MKB's (Point Encounter and Take Control) raced once and have not been seen since. Now, interestingly they both started working again in August, and they had to stop on both of them. In the interest of the horses I am going to pass again. Maybe when one of my MKB's actually races again...

Whacky, What's up w/Hernandez ? What's the shake on him ? & VQ is probably hung over...... Keith L. You beat me to to it. Consortium was a 1st time Starter @13-1. A SLewster by Bernardini no less. I live for those 1st time Slewsters. Too many things needed fixin' around here, as it precluded me from Fixating on the horse...I had him tabbed..... Don't you just love those "Lessons" ? Butts: rememeber..It's not gambling......Rof/LMAO......... You should know by now, how much I love the Professor types..........They can make anything square fit into their round holes.......Good job as usual.......Very perceptive, if I may say so myself...

BSB Calvin understood what I meant, He and I spoke of Animal Kingdom after he crossed the line his first race......Perhaps you started posting after that......As far as the others, they also knew what I meant as we speak often. I didn't have to include them because they already know. I didn't remember you liking AK till Derby day, I'm sorry.....I thought you were onto that horse from CA......Forgot his name......no joke, I really did. Keith and VQ................ May as well lump the two of you together. First Keith....I addressed what you said earlier, but thought better of it and asked Dan to not post it......but since the two of you, either don't read too well or are just a bit tipsy.....I'll try again. First the Bias......I never said only stone closers are winning, I said pace/closers.......that still goes, not one horse has won gate to wire. Today was the first day other than opening day (as I mentioned) that a horse that went out early managed to hold second. So if you're going say something get the facts straight. I know you can pull one out of your pocket, but because I knew of the bias and trusted my judgement I had Midnight Billy with Hyper and laconic. As far as the "hot" pace.....it was the only race run so far that would be considered hot, most races have had splits in the 49-50 and 1:14 to 1:15 range early and the front runners still collapsed. The bias can change and I said that, but that's how Aqueducts turf course is....like Saratoga horses either like it or not.......It's certainly not my fault you lost and trying to say a stone closer won was a coincidence is ridiculous.....keep playing the speed.......blame yourself, not me. I put those tidbits there for folks who don't know the course, I do and apparently in your advanced years neither do you. It's like saying watch Mclaughlin and Schettino this meet till the IDT opens. Especially if Schettino uses Ortiz and Curatolo........it would have made someone some nice change yesterday and today.......but hey....you know better, you can pull em out of your pockets. Now for the Cranky couple............I was kidding, why is it that you are the only two who missed it? Drink from the same glass? Yes....I most certainly bet a front running loser to teach folks a lesson.....yeah, and I did it again today to show those who missed it.....get a grip. Read what I wrote.....I expected the three horse to stay on the pace, to stalk...(there goes the stone closer theory) instead he went out......hence the Oh Oh......he faded, I lost, I said I did it on purpose......it was a JOKE.comprende? VQ..............You are not on my radar.....period, voices in Cyberspace never hold my attention, especially ones who think they know me when they haven't a clue..........Trying to help folks who can use it is what I try to do.......I contribute, pass along things I've learned and seen done.....how I chose to do it is really none of your concern....you shouldn't worry your pretty head about it. It bothers you?....my methodology? Pass my posts, nothing there that would interest you anyway, it tells folks things they have to use on their own.....ideas to try, things to look for....nothing you'd be interested in, not really. So don't concern yourself with it.....because apparently you're not reading what I write as I mean it...just what you'd like it to mean. You can say what you will.......but I put it out there and stand behind it......you think I'm wrong, or you think you can do better show me...........talk is, after all, cheap no? I'm not one for "sweet talk", I'm not like Keith, I do not have the gift of beautiful speech like Van Savant or Jonah.....I do not believe in Politically correctness.....straight forward, it's the only way I know.......sorry M'Dear if it offends, but the folks I'm trying to help tell me they like the directness, so until they tell me different I will continue to be direct......this isn't little miss muffets finishing school, we are all adults no?......well? You see I don't know, that cyberspace thing again....... save yourself the aggravation and pass my posts.......you'll sleep better.....Mike A

Mike A., I like it when a young colt wins his debut by open lengths and I thought Consortium's run going 6 1/2-furlongs was good. I also like his pedigree. Empire Way also won his debut going 6 1/2 furlongs but Consortium's time was faster and he was gearing down at the end. It will be interesting to see how these two young colts fare when they stretch out to a route race.

Keith L NASCAR - with Edwards and Stewart seperated by 3 points for the Cup Championship, and the final race next week .....are we ready to rumble ?? And Kyle Busch is still a very Bad, Bad, Bad Boy!! LOL! Fillies, Irish Setters , or Blue Thongs with Blonde locks...I'll pass on commenting :)

Final Stats for Oaktree Meet at SA are available at the main IMT website. They include the final track stats, field size with winning style and Jockey Records Summary. This is good stuff compiled painstakingly by Steve T. and well worth checking out. http://www.ironmaidensthoroughbreds.com/

Sunday notes... Off to church... Curt V You better watch out, VQ might give you a blah, blah, blah or a woulda, coulda, shoulda on that remark about the HOT Jock Brian Hernandez jr!!! It is a great point by you, but your asking for trouble... VQ Are they running out of gin for those gin and tonic's down in Cambridge??? You can get all you want at the 2-4 No-limit texas hold-em down at the woods all day today. I know, who wants to listen to the 5 generations of breeding of Rock of Gibralter or how the track is raked before workouts... That can only help me and other punters in the feature race at The Big A today...LOL Good Luck!!! Peace Whackymacky Out!!!

Keith L., Thanx a bunch for the link to the NYRA & Consortium's video..Man, I've seen a whole lot of Slewsters, butts:I'll tell you one thing, that horse looks & runs so much like Grandpappy Slew, it gives me goosebumps. It's downright petraFLYING..........That move on the turn & all the way 3 wide, from the #13 Hole & he showed them his Great Grandpappy's Ass.........Heeheehee.........I already have it saved to my files. A little JB>>I'm Super Bad....I Got the Feeling>>There Was a Time........Papa's Got a Brand New Bag........I'm breaking out in a "Cold Sweat"........... Mama come here quick, show them that Lickin' Stick.....'hause..sisters out in the Backyard, doin' her outside dance, I'm tellin' me the other day, she didn't wanta be a drag, I don't care what shes doin', Papa's Gotta Brand new Bag...... Annie, That's my MKB.........Book it Danno......... James Mc, No problem my man, it's all in a days work.......I just trumped you one dumber... I said, maybe I'll see you 1/12/11......

Hollywood Race 4, MSW 6 1/2F today includes a couple of well bred babies. Empire Way is a FULL brother to Royal Delta. His works are in the morning top ten and he fired a bullet three weeks ago over the Hol. track. He'll want two turns but this is a good starting point. Unmarked Bills is a son of Posse and a half brother to Devil May Care (Frizette, Mother Goose & Coaching Club American Oaks) and Regal Ransom (UAE Derby, Super Derby). His siblings are fairly precocious and he's been working well at SA. Take No Prisoners is a Giant's Causeway colt out of a Pulpit mare who is a full sister to stakes winner Lucky Pulpit. This one's half brother is a Russian stakes winner. He's a Baffert 1st timer and has the typically sharp works from that barn. He's been breezing at Hol. Swiss Guard is a Swiss Yodeler PGH whose full brother won his debut at Hollywood. Second dam is an Italian Oaks winner. Swiss Guard is 0 for 8 and the rest of the field are making their debuts. He's trained by Mike Harrington, but the barn is 0 for 25 with the dirt to synth. angle. Plus Swiss Guard hasn't been close in statebred maiden claimers. Let's turn him into a nice Dressage horse for TBTA. Goyathia is a son of Teuflesberg without a whole lot of blacktype. His works are on the unremarkable slow side and Snake Venom is 12% with 1st time starters. Another PGH, Holy Candy, is a Candy Ride full brother to Holloween Candy. That one was unplaced in his first 2 starts at Hol. but a year later won and placed in claiming events at the track. Second dam Lunar Spook won the Davona Dale and Ashland Stakes. Holy Candy breezed a second to last bullet over the Hol. track and should be ready to bless his backers with a score. This race is a Chalky special. Short field, low odds. Not a good betting race. Likely top three are Unmakred Bills, Take No Prisoners and Holy Candy. If we see a speed duel and one of them falters, Empire Way should show his class and be running late. A few of these colts will find their way into next year's TC Stakes so the race is worth noting. Laura

Mike from the last thread said "How is it that so many of you are so certain that Goldikova 'mugged' CourageousCat. Mr. Head never mentioned it ,the DRF chart doesn't mention it and I've never seen any angle but the run of the race" Open your eyes next time Mike. You missed a hell of a race !! Doesn't your seeing eye dog bark out a race call for you ? Perhaps you need some spectacles Mike ? ___________________________________________________________________________________ James Mc, you called it then and of C-horse you were right. Slow is slow no matter how you rake it. TiZway could not win a fast 9f anywhere on any track.

Annie, I want to have some fun, fun, fun, & daddy took her T-bird away... Sorry, I had a senior dysfunctional flashback moment there for a second. Please put me down for a MKB horse. I'd prefer one that doesn't run too long in one spot. LOL

OK Anne, Please can I have one of those MKB Horses? I for one, do not want to be put on that Milk Carton. Thanks, Billy

Wacky FW doesn't spread 2/4 no-limit 1/2, 2/5, 5/10, and when enough players 10/25 they do spread 2/4 limit btw, the pats-jets game starts in an hour or so i'm making my biggest bet of the year so far, on the jets, laying two points 2 your beloved pats if u recall, in the past when i bet against the pats i've lost so u might want 2 *fade* my bet gl peace VQ

All, I have noticed a number of references to "woulda, shoulda, coulda" lately. I would like to remind everyone how therapeutic a quick dip in the cold Atlantic (Pacific,Caribbean, water body of your choice) can be. Let it go folks, turn the page. Learn, but do not obsess. Have fun at this game!

Calvin, I watched Liasison.....Has the breeding, I'm looking at the time 1:44+ with a horse closing to his outside and the frontrunner tiring to be a little over a length back as so so......he won't be scaring anyone anytime soon. Room for improvement, but so far they all need that......I'm looking over a few here and in Florida.......I thought Consortium looked really good winning yesterday at Aqueduct, his time for the 6.5f's (1:17:0) comparable to older runners during the day. He was also geared down at the end.........It was a very well bred group he ran against. There was another also ran in there that I thought would advance as he stretched out.....his name is Common Sense. He's owned by Siena farms and is trained by Bill Mott. Mr. Mott is not one to have them all cranked up first crack out of the box........I'm not so sure about NY, but I will be watching for him down South.......Mike A

Meathead01 ...ask and you shall recieve! after another nice work 11/12/2011 HOL 5F 1:01.80 All Weather Track Fast H UNCLE SAM is entered at Hollywood on 11/17. http://www.drf.com/race-entries/HOL/USA/2011-11-17/D/7 GO SAM!

The race for this week's HG is the 8th @ Delta Downs, a 1st-level allowance for LA-Breds going 7f. I chose this b/c I wanted a change from the normal, especially since it is most likely that the force feeding of Gulfstream races will began very, very soon. (Based on past history) P ensign, I have lovingly referred to Julio Garcia as "The Assassin" because he randomly pops out of nowhere, wins some races and is gone before you can catch up with him. Love him.

You're good Mike ,buttZ... Calvin ain't the only one here if you're talking about the Derby. :-) Furthermore as I've said here once before *NOBODY*here made Animal Kingdom a contender before I did. I made him a contender the day he was concieved. Calvin is something more than good. He's a historian & a scholar. That doesn't impress some people ,buttZ... it does me. Of C-horse if we're talking about betting everyday run of the mill Mdns than I think you forgot about LSD, Steve T., Blackstone and others that make a habit of catching Mdns. . I'll concede that on NY turf you're better than me & most others buttZ... on Mdns or babies ??? I doubt it very seriously. Not trying to start a war,buttZ... it wouldn't be much fun here if everybody conceded that you are better than everybody at everything.

VS i have confidence in u that u will rebound " i like MikeA's lastest offering...he only bets on Losers so that he can TEACH us all a lesson on his handicapping prowess... this last on Track Bias at Aqueduct no less. What a Helluva Guy" LOL KeithL i still got *Halloween Candy* left over if your interested i went out early b4 the other kids,how bout u LMAO VQ

Laura and Uncle Steve Thank you for all the statistics and the link to find them . You two do a terrific job of sharing.

Dan- Know your a busy man,but maybe you can answer these questions... Take a meet like Tampa when it starts soon. How do I go about following the meet. Do I print out the charts everyday and file them in a notebook (oldschool way) or does DRF have something that will do that for me? Basically Dan, I'm looking for a step by step process to following a race meet using the plethora of technology we now have. Any help would be greatly appreciative.

Dan our Man Pretty Great Hit on the Pretty Gray Horse, Hit it Rich. $10.80 nice winner. Keep them comming!

Dan (anyone?) I noticed that J A Garcia won one of the Calder stakes today, and wondered if a. it is the Julio Garcia who's gotta be nearing 50 by now, and b. if you knew much about him. I've watched him for at least a decade, turning up here and there, sometimes for part of a meet, sometimes for a stakes race... He pops up so infrequently, but on what seems like only live horses, and brings to mind sort of a reclusive, yet kind of carpetbaggy version of Craig Perret (for the last 5 or so years of his career - he's done racing, isn't he?). Anyway, seeing that name just aroused a little curiosity, as he seems to have been around forever, always very talented, and one of those guys who you usually have a feeling is sitting on a live horse.

"formblog should have what they have on the poker forums a place 4 people 2 go who just want 2 talk about badbeats, brag or should've,would've,could've" vq, I have no idea what kind of horse player you are (after all these years), although apparently you also play poker, and from what I've read you seem to drink as well. as far as I'm concerned, playing p-6 carryovers with a limited budget is one of the most rewarding, frustrating, fascinating, (pick an adjective) brain teasers known to man. Under the proper circumstances, also one of the only positive expectation bets (unlike your aforementioned lotto, except for very, very, very isolated incidents, but even then, the odds are so stacked against you that they can hardly REALLY be considered positive expectation), which are to me the best kinds of bets (even if they are ridiculously difficult). I've preached these wagers since my first day on the blog, and will continue to do so until my last day. It seems that recently you've been a fan of redboarding, but this rant is anti red and black&blue boarding. Whatup? this is a tough game, and other than for Mike A., it is gambling for all the rest of us, and in the carryover game, winning is not a frequent occurrence. Not sure what your problem today is with a little commiseration, but just thought you were a little bit begging for a response, so there ya go than hyxter

Jeff T from the previous thread "I think it's safe to say that this is why I'm still having a difficult time letting go of my Racing Form and last Saturday's BC races." I would say that many of the formbloggers here will review the pp's post race & try to fiqure out what they missed. In wagering, everyone wants a good return on the investment. And many share what they see, as you did, and I believe that it is a good excersise to do. If BSF are your thing or angle ( not everyones) then I hope you will take the leason learned, turn the corner and go forward. (If you saw this scenario again, who knows, they could all run out of the money.) I saw some 'woulda, 'coulda, 'shoulda posts, after the BC races this week, so I know you are not alone. Hang in there and pick your next spot. Good luck BTW, I also read Steve Crists blog , and took this away from his 'fun facts' section. ( Goldikova #2, Gio Ponti #3, and Court Vision #6 were in the top 10 earners..go fiqure)

Mike A., Good to hear from you too. Looking forward to your insights on the juvenile trail.

Semi-retired for the year, but I'll dive into a mid-card Daily Double anyway. Aqueduct 4th: Pletcher dumping former Spinaway entrant Sky Hosoya into this. Cheap speed should at least ensure a decent pace. Rakehellish and Alex's Buck appear to be the likely inheritors when SH quits. Still will use all three. I'll test my Juvy picking skills in the 5th and go with Milestone Miss and Renowned to complete the double.

Mike A., Thanks for the kind words. I’m not too excited about this group of 2YO’s either and look forward to see the quality of runners that show up at the end of the season. One horse I thought may have some potential, Alpha, bombed in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. The past several months I’ve been busy working on the book and with it almost wrapped up it will be good to focus on the juvenile races again. I must be out of touch as I did not realize the Real Quiet Stakes was today. I’m interested to see how Liaison runs. His pedigree suggests that he may have some classic potential but you never know until they stretch out to route races.

Friends; Alright, so I handicapped last night's Pick 5 for Hollywood Park, and made my recommendations to our collaborative. It was a pretty good play ($72) with good coverage, but it was predicated on a single in the first leg (#2). Additionally, I recommended that we pass on this sequence, as I didn't really like most of the races...I had to go six deep in one of the legs...not a good sign for me... We didn't play the sequence, and thank goodness, as we would have been out after the first. I did, however, move on to Saturday's program where I liked me a bit of the 6th and the 8th races. I decided, what-the-heck, I'll take a look at the 7th, and make a small Pick 3 play for a bit of afternoon entertainment, along with a few action-play Win tickets. Here they are: Hollywood Park 6th - MADERA CASTANA (#2) ran credibly in her last and is into the third race of this form cycle. WILD ROSE (#3) also ran well last out at this level, is cutting back in distance, and closes nicely. HARD TO RESIST (#6) has good connections, can close, and is 2 for 6 thus far. FARLEY STAR (#7) owns a win at this level, is cutting back, and appears to be in form. 7th Race - WARRENS' WASCO SON (#2) shows a good string of works in preparation for this and has a shot in this. THE BIEN'S GIFT (#7) looks to move forward off of his last. WAR WIZARD (#9) also may improve in his second start and should get a good stalking trip. 8th Race - I will be singling TIZ POINT (#4) in this as I believe he will take to the surface and press the pace throughout here under Jockey Gomez. Tough race to single, but what-the-heck! On my way out now to pick up my daughter from her first day of High School Swim practice. I am very proud of her. I'll keep you posted as to her chances of making the varsity squad as a freshman (she'll do it...I see her times...). Have a great day, everyone, and be safe.

Annie nah..not grumpy just calling it as i c it :) love horse players VQ

Saturday morning... Did anyone pick the winner of the 9th at Aqueduct yesterday?? FTS, it was the #11 at 11-1 on the 11th day of the 11th month of the 11th year. Strange.... I hope that Blackstone had that Pick 6 payoff out at GG of over $220K... Hollywood Park had a $30 winner in a 4 horse field and a $35 winner in a 5 horse field. Maybe a good spot for the all button...The wrong Baffert horse won in the 7th race, but still a Baffert horse. Ron Z Just making note of the Owner / Trainer / Jockey connections. They can come up and payoff from time to time. I didn't have a penny on the race. People can play those angles. Just like a Billy Mott Friday into Saturday Breeder's Cup Daily Double. He does well at CD. It paid off well for those Mott followers... Big Carryover at Hollywood Park today.... Good Luck all... Whackymacky Out!!!

The top three in the Real Quiet we should see again, and even if Liason (who I was on) should go in the Cash Call, I'll probably be taking the front running Senor Rain in that mile event. In other two year old action, Darley Stable and McLaughlin have a runner in Consortium, who did the work all on his own volition to win a 6&1/2f MSW at Aqueduct today aurthoritatively. By Bernardini out of a Machevilian mare, this one has the look of being any kind of a horse. Didn't bet the race, but was somewhat impressed by the effort put in by Hassey in the Long Island Handicap...Motion has a runner there, and even though she disappointed me in the Dowager Stakes, I'll look for her again down the road. Whacky hit em up down south, today. Annie came close again. VQ...keep on keeping 'em honest, dear! You're my heroine! I like Mike A's latest offering...he only bets on losers so that he can TEACH us all a lesson on his handicapping prowess....this last on track bias at Aqueduct, no less. What a helluva guy! Keith L.

Anybody know about this Jock: B J Hernandez Jr. @Churchill ? He's lighting up the Tote Board..... Today he had 5 mounts. 3 wins, 1 second & 1 out.. Wins @14-1, 8-1, 18-1, & a 7-1 ran second...... Sounds like the 2nd coming of Chris Antley, when Antley was running @the old Garden State Race Track in New Jersey. Bet anything he gets aboard...... XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX James Mc, I posted something for you on the prior thread{Bernard is the heading}...Butts:it got posted a day late & now it's up..must of got mixed up when the DRF lost the thread......I did my best Johnny Carson skit..Go read it.. & maybe I'll see you January 12, 2012...Maybe I can get some Tix..Let me know...... V for Victory............go Nova........

" HP had a $30 winner in a four horse field and a $35 winner in a 5 horse field, maybe a good spot for the *all button*" or maybe a good spot 2 go 2 the rest room and take a leak ( guys terminanogoly ) shoud've, would've, could've blah blah blah instead of going 2 the corner drug store 2 buy the winning mega bucks jackpot ticket ( which by the way i don't play ) i should of taken a greyhound bus 2 *missouri* where they sold the winner this stuff never stops on the blog singled in the wrong race..spread in the wrong race didn't hit the all button..hit the all button in the wrong race got shut out at the window didn't play a saver ticket should of played this angle loved the horse but hated the trainer/jockey stats of course the horse then went wire 2 wire and paid $90 blah blah blah formblog should have what they have on the poker forums a place 4 people 2 go who just want 2 talk about badbeats, brag or should've,would've,could've hope everybody is having a nice day and a winning day peace VQ

Well Hungry Island isn't as good as I thought, because MM and BC aren't that good......I did include BC however........I'll take a look at the charts and see how they ran......I know how Trac and Jam ran.....last. I know how Dan feels about Giant Oak........Mike A

Annie $166.50 for a $1 pick 3. You have 3 in and need 4,5 / 5 to get it. Good Luck!! Whackymacky Out!!!

" there's more and i'm sure you don't want to hear it (right now Mike i can see people nodding their heads up and down in the affirmative )...But, i will say when it comes to picking *juvies* there is only one person here ( formblog ) who has beaten me twice ( Calvin Carter ) anyone who consistently beats me i have much respect for." lmao where can i get a scorecard of the final results i wanna know where i finished hopefully in the money UFR u take the cake this stuff never stops with you btw, i didn't realize their was a contest on the blog 4 *best Juvie picker* peace VQ

thanks, i need all the help i can get..... jerry gossett

"Well, so much for my foray into Golden Gate. I should have known when I got to the track and OH FRANKIE had been scratched sometime between the time I left the house and the time I got to the track. Apparently, I didn't hear the sirens screaming ABORT! ABORT! ABORT! Usually if I have to scramble around trying to find a replacement for a single, I just scrap the whole thing. Oh well, back to the Pick 5s." Annie: that sequence was a must play for any serious p-6 player, aborted single or no. that resulting payoff was better than 8 times the 9/5,5/2,3-1,3-1,6-1,9-1 parlay. no horse was over 10/1 and not even close to impossible to find. contrast to AQ, where the payout was 10 times the parlay, but you needed to find the 11-1 and 30-1 shot, (granted the other 4 winners were faves, 2 of those odds on). Of course, at AQ 58 horses total ran, as compared with a mere 42 at GG. My big boo boo yesterday was knowing that my best hits at GG have always been when Russell had a bad day-- unfortunately, yesterday was not one of those, and of course, I tried mightily to beat him. A $200k+ payout when Baze wins 2 of the 3 races he rides?!? Both my (anti-Baze) singles had the lead in the stretch, and if Krigger manages to get the 1 home in the 3rd or the Frankie gets the 4 home in the 6th I've got 5/6 - let's not even think about both of them getting home... sheesh advantages; tedbirp

Calvin Great to hear from you.......I look forward to this time of year as we've both been on some good ones early these past few years and I enjoy our "talks". This year I've been a bit disappointed, there doesn't even seem to be enough decent runners to knock either. I mentioned Managed Account as one to look at, but as you say it's early yet. I like him because I picked him out of a race he ran 5th in, seemed to fit the part if you understand me......I will look at Liaison......CA race or not there isn't much to go on so far, so I won't give him my usual "CA....forget em" moniker. There wasn't the usual "early bunch" at Saratoga this year, well any that didn't get hurt anyway. I hope were not seeing the trend to fewer horses running that we all knew would be coming with the economic pressure on the horse biz that started a few years back. Though 2011 is about when I figured it to come....feast or famine......keep me posted on any more you see as I will you............Mike A

Ron Z, Since TB racehorses are closely related the only way you are going to breed that out of them is by scrapping them all and starting over . (if you could even do it then) At the same time as the Jersey Act was in effect (38% of the last 100years) Some hillbilly states were attempting to remove insanity ,feeble mindedness and other percieved weak links from the Human Gene Pool through forced steriliZation. When that was outlawed in the US it gained traction in Germany. Mickey Mantle had possible hereditary defects. Should his father & grandfather have been steriliZed ? I don't think so. There might be a horse named Hard Spin but he wouldn't be a thoroughbred as we know them and he would probably have trouble turning in a 2 minute lick. C, LOL. Moss's blog has to go. Calvin , Nearco definetly has influenced the breed. The Jersey Act was a form of economic warfare. OOPs.

Turf Paradice 11-12-11 saturday R4 #7 Zozensual came back after four months on shelf to put in a big effort closing from 10 back on the backside to a nose away from second place. vicky road her with confidence almost to victory and think she gets her in closer contention in this run. #3 Jennys First Gear gets leading jockey in heiler for this shipper from california is cutting back to this trainer 33% with that angle this mare always seems to get a piece and with these she will be in the thick of it for the top prize #5 Spokane Dancer throw out the last one on dirt after long layoff and you have a contender for sure. two down she comes from off the pace to get the money. she has won four in her life so she does know where the finish line is although against low level claimers. exacta key box #7/1358 atb #7 R5 #6 Bolden took a year off and returned against tougher and weakened in the lane which is understandable after a year off so today gets corbett to ride and think she breaks with Alki Point and runs that one down and then holds off Hot Shot for the win #3 Hot Shot RN for turf paradice that win was awesome for sure pulling away deep stretch to win by five first out being well bet for that one. goes longer today and her style dictates she will do well at this distance beat her to win today #5 Pleasant Gal fine effort after one year off and should improve off that one today.trainer is 26% in sprints and gurra and trainer connect for 33%. should run with the pack near the front for her best chance #7 Alki Point to ignore this one might be a mistake she is a litely raced four year old by Harbour of Gold out of seeking the gold and does have good front speed and she will use it in this race is a little short usually at the wire will use under on tickets R7 #10 Kanan Dume back to the races after five months on shelfg this california speed ball will put on a front running class for these N1Y today catch him to win if you can. two for two at this track so think he is the best bet of the day so go stand at the window and collect #7 Palmetto Road the big angle with this gelding is the blinkers off for this race has shown some speed and think he will follow along behind #10 for a part at a price probably the show money. #3 Hot Fire gets v baze for this one and is yet another that has front speed in this short sprint look for vicky to put him as close to the front as she can #6 Ouachita Creek watch out for this one today has late running ability and should like the sprint after mostly longer races and is one for three at this distance. had a bullet work back in sept. that puts him right in this one. a must use today at a price R8 #6 Stamp of Approval here is your key horse in this race after b hone took over as trainer this one has two turf wins of two tries and goes a little longer in this race. has won against better than these so think he will prevail over this bunch today hone is 26% wls. #4 Midland Empire out of a broad brush mare picks leading jockey for this race going on turf being one for one itm at this distance. followed behind the barton boy in last race so think heiler takes him back for best effort and closes in the lane #7 The Barton Boy moves up to a mile today and tired to fourth in last goes back to barton who knows him best and think he tries to take him out to the front and will try to hold off others down the lane he is the one to beat here #5 Kafwain Secret MD must respect this one here has some very good wins at EmD and got to know track in last race he has a fine stretch running style so if the others tire he will be there to pick up the pieces going home. a must use on your tickets . R9 #3 One Vote disregard that last fiasco on the grass this gelding does not like the green at all and that last was a tightner for this race. last time in this class won driving with barton up at this distance. he is the one to beat in this race three for ten at the distance. #8 Dangerous Summer passed a lot of horses in that last race to get the show for bridges and bridges has had him itm every time he has rode him lately.bridges 21% w/trainer will be charging late stretch for a part #10 Youthful Ambition this one can either run near the front or come from well back seems to change style often but think he comes from off the pace in this race for a part. corbett is two for three ITM on this one #2 Mikeswayorthehiway this one has speed going long and kaplan might decide to use it in this sprint today worked a 47.4 so can show speed if the occcasion arises for kaplanuse sparingly at a price good luck all MH01

Spot plays at Calder... Play them $100 To Win and $200 To Place Race #4 #3 For Oby Race #5 #1 Yara Race #6 #1 Argentine Tango Race #7 #4 Belle Of The Hall Race #8 #1 Pashito The Che Race #9 #1 Motessa G Race #10 #7 Manicero Race #11 #12 Star Of Sarava Race #12 #8 Zebulon Road Playing these on speed only. Catch me if you can... Good Luck All!!! Whackymacky Out!!!

Well that was quick............Linda Rice gets the money, all I needed was Rock On Home to hold 2nd, but she went to the front early and as I said the front runners aren't doing anything....she faded to 4th.......I lost the race, but confirmed the bias. When the 3 went out I thought Oh Oh.....to give you an idea....Rock On Home opened two turning for home and couldn't get it done......., Attention (another I had with ROH) took over at the 1/8th and looked home free, but was caught by EZPZ Lemon Squeeze ( who names these horses).......please folks....don't do as I did......I took a bullet to show you the bias, remember...... money is a terrible thing to waste.......Mike A