02/18/2011 1:20PM

Live Blog: $172,736 Pick-5 Carry at GP

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12:20 pm: Thanks to 73-1 and 59-1 winners in Thursday's sequence, there's a $172,736 carryover in the 50-cent pick-5 at Gulfstream Friday. It looks very tough but let's take a shot.

Four of the five races are on the turf, ranging from a five-furlong sprint to a 1 7/16th-mile allowance race, and no morning-line favorite is lower than 3-1. Here's the sequence, which after early scratches would require a $59,800 investment at the 50-cent minimum to buy every combination (9x12x10x10x12):

 

Early scratches:

6th-None

7th-The four also-eligibles (#13 through #16)

8th-Zoran (#7)

9th-Champagnelifestyle (#1)

10th-Nathan Ridge (#2), also-eligibles #14 through #16; One horse draws in (#13-Paster's Bad Habit)

Lots of handicapping to do. I'll be back around 2:30 pm. with my thoughts on the sequence, which begins with the 6th race at 3:25 p.m.

 

2:30 pm: Ay yi yi. "Very tough" may have been an understatement. Only eight complete x-outs and nine pretty-much x-outs among 53 horses in the five races. Here are the comments and prelinary grades. Back to the whittling stool for me.

 

3:20 pm: Five minutes to post. A caveman ticket with everyone I gave a chance would have cost over $11k, about 11 times what I was looking to put in, so I split them up in A-B-C fashion as follows. The first-leg strategy was to try to beat the known runners with one of the three firsters. RIght now, the Jimmy Jerkens firster Deputy Major (#5) is the 5-2 choice. When the 3-1 ML favorite is a 1-for-17 who has never run up to the par for this kind of race, I'm looking for strangers.

The pool is already over $600k, might top $1 million. Good luck to us all:

3:35 pm: Thought there were three one-way speeds in the race who would set the table for a closer, but Lady Chesterfield and Vinda were off slowly and only Omi's Vindication ($16.60 as the 5th choice) broke sharply and they never caught her. The one-paced veterans followed her around the track and none of the three firsters showed anything. Down to one backup ticket through the winner that goes 1,6/4,6/5,6,10/3,8. Just like that, down from 1,458 combos (a $729 play) to 24 live ones. Feh.

 

4:10 pm: War Clan ($5.80) was an authoritative winner over the two uncoupled Pletcher entrants to keep my thin ticket alive a while longer. Only three lengths separated the first seven under the wire. War Clan was one of the few potential singles in the sequence, so was probably a welcome winner for those who had to spread in the opener to catch Omi's Vindication.

 

4:45 pm: Pressure at an overlaid 5-1 held off Huff'n Hughes for seven furlongs of a virtual match race, but Huff'n Hughes ($14.40) got to him and then by him in the final furlong. SO much for the pick-5. I reloaded for another $240 in the pick-4 and am alive for 50 cents on a ticket that goes 4,5,6,8,10/3,4,8 in the last two legs, but I don;t think any of those combos can pay the $969 for $0.50 I need to get out for the afternoon.

 

5:15 pm: The 9th broke the best way for me with the German filly La Luna de Miel scoring at 8-1. Here are the pick-4 and pick-5 willpays, both being reported as $1 payoffs. Everyone except #6 Champion Eclipse, is covered in the pick-5:

 

5:45 pm: Paster's Bad Habit ($11.00) wired the favorites to complete a $14,208.40 for $1 ($7,104.20 for $0.50) pick-5. Consos for 4 of 5 paid $113.20. Even though I wasn't in the ballpark today, this is a fun and affordable bet I'll be keeping an eye on for the rest of the Gulfstream meet.

 

ZORN4128 More than 1 year ago
Have to share my Thursday Gulfstream story with the masses. In 25 years of playing horses, i never experienced anything like it. I had not cashed all day, and in race 6 got knocked out of the pick 4. I played the final pick 3, and caught the $140 winner in the first leg, then was 6 deep in race 8 and 6 deep in race 9. In race 8, I hit a $16.60 horse, and was alive with 6 of 9 horses going into the final leg. I couldn't even look at the prospective payouts, I was so nervous. One of the horses I left off my ticket was a horse that I hit in his first start at tampa three years ago at $50+. A year later, my friends and I were in Saratoga when I saw the horse entered at Monmouth in a 5F turf sprint. We wheeeled him on the bottom at 80-1- and we hit the exacta for $600 and had money to place. I am a small time bettor, but this horse won me a small fortune, and I always seemed to catch him on his best days. In an attempt to hedge my bet, I went back to the ATM, took out $80 and put $40 on that horse (#11) and $20 each on the #8 and #4. With 6 live horses in the last leg of the pick 3 to hook up with a $140 and $17 horse< I thought I had the score of a lifetime, but did not include one of my alltime favorite horses. Long story short- the #11, Knockinelder, wins the race at 50-1, and pays $120. My WAY TO CONSERVATIVE "hedge" netted me $2400. The $1Pick 3 paid $30,023, and I would have hit the consolation Pick 3 for another $2,060. Words cannot describe the pain on two levels, the most obvious being leaving Knockinelder off my Pick 3 ticket. Second, why did I not invest MUCH more capital on the hedge bet? The LOWEST Pick 3 payout with my 6 horses was $3,800- for $200 for the 3 horses I did not include in the last leg ($600 total) I still would have brought home AT LEAST $3200. The worst thing is that I did not realize I had a big winner after that second leg- all I needed to do was pound those three omitted longshots with straight "win" bets. I have never been in that position, and unfortunately probably will never be again. I would bet that the $30,000 payout was one of the highest paying Pick 3s in Florida history, and I let it slip away. If anyone has some advice as to how to "turn the page" on this one, I know my wife would greatly appreciate it. Thanks for reading.
bobby k More than 1 year ago
About “turning the page” on the 30K pick 3 that got away. I think you already know this, but “couldawouldashoulda” is self-inflicted torture. We all do it, of course. Your “bad beat” sounds classic. But I still remember the last meet of season Pick Six at Meadowlands a couple of decades ago. When the meet closes, they have to pay out even if not all six winners are picked. There was a nice carryover. One person took away 100K for 5 of 6. And it “shoulda” been me. But you know how it goes. I had it down to two horses in the first race, went with one on coin-toss, the other wins. In second leg, I had a Philadelphia Park shipper with big top speed fig – back in the day when I had to calculate my own Beyers before they were printed in the Form, so hardly anyone was in on him. But for no good reason, I left him out of the Pick Six. Fortunately I bet him to win at 20 to 1. He won, of course, and I had to wonder, why did I bother to do Philly figs if I’m not going to use them? Hit the third, fourth and fifth legs at some decent odds, even one with my wife’s name. Last leg, had it down to two horses, went with one on coin-toss, again the other wins. So, yes, even though I had only 3 of 6, I berated myself and relived it for quite a while. It was so close. But realistically, you don’t make the bets you don’t make. Don’t beat yourself up. You still made some good hedge bets you cashed. And in hindsight, when a horse wins, you ALWAYS could have bet more on it. I also know how it is with a horse who seems to be your special destiny. But at 50 to 1, it must not be winning every time it races. How much might you lose if you backed it every time? As for “turning the page,” my wife would say the lesson is stop betting if you want such painful things to stop. It goes with the territory. Time will heal. Maybe you won’t forget. But you can forgive yourself.
Henry B More than 1 year ago
Praying Eibar Coa is alright.
jerry More than 1 year ago
Hate to rant on about field size, but I just got a look at NYRA cards for sunday and monday. 64 betting interests on sunday and 63 on monday! why bother with "holiday" race cards if this is the product you are putting out there? Be better giving the horsemen the extra couple of days off until wednesday card. Just more money going out of state.
Rob More than 1 year ago
Hi Steve, love to follow along to the live blogs. Just a question. Are the tickets are structured as follows:? All A's with All B's All A's with All C's if so do you play each one for the same unit? Thanks....Rob [Rob: The usual play, which I used in this case, is that you need eith 6 A's, 5 A's with one B or C, or 4 A's and 2 B's. Sometimes, I'l just play an all-A's-andB's, and then the 5A/1C tickets, depensing on cost and how strongly I feel about my A's being clearcut as opposed to arbitrary. -SC]
Real1Quiet More than 1 year ago
SC, The Gulfstream $0.50 P5 @ 15% takeout is simpy the best bet in the country right now. I'm as focused and loyal to Southern California racing as much as anyone in the country, especially with the return of dirt at Santa Anita, but it just seems like a bad business decision for me to dedicate what little resources I have dedicated for racing (thanks CitiBank 2008) to Santa Anita's higher takeout offerings. Along similar lines, I've always thought a decent idea, much like the guaranteed Pick 6 pools of Pre-2007, why not have the tracks on Santa Anita Handicap Day or Travers Day offer a single day where the Pick 6 is 10% or 12% or 15% takeout? I'm guessing the downside is the actual idea of advertising to the public "hey, we normally keep 23%, but this day we'll only keep 10%!" so that kind of seems difficult from a PR standpoint.
Jeff Moss More than 1 year ago
The consos are nice when you don't hit and also nice when you do hit 5 of 5. I have hit the GP Pick-5 some days and ended up with 25 or 30 4 out of 5 consos which really bumps up your winnings. It really is a great bet for someone who wants to invest $600 to $800 and feel like they have a legitimate chance at a really nice score. I don't feel like I am competing with syndicates and bigger bettors like I do when I invest that type of money in a Pick 6. The .50 cent Pick-5 at Keeneland should really lend itself to some monstrous payoffs between field sizes and the poly.
Jeff Moss More than 1 year ago
Thanks to the decent Pick-4 payout and generous 4 out of 5 consos, I bailed out for the day. Not a bad ending when you spend over $700 on the Pick-5 and go out in the first leg. Hope you ended up bailing out as well, Steve. [I didn't, but those consos are a nice touch and good for some of the players who may be trying super-multirace bets for the first time. -SC]
rf More than 1 year ago
when you have time please explain how the boxes work. [http://www1.drf.com/formulator/ticketmakerhelp.html -SC]
Paul More than 1 year ago
through 2 legs on P5, 3 legs on P6...rest of way..6/10,6,5,1/3,8...what was final pool on P5?
SherpaGuide More than 1 year ago
Omi's Vindication?? Good grief, why do I subject myself to this abuse? Three deep in leg one and I get 2nd thru 4th, rrrrrr. Good luck to all that made it through, very nice pool!