01/19/2009 8:48PM

Let It Snow

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Went to Aqueduct today but only made it through six live races. It wasn't supposed to snow but it began coming down hard halfway through the early pick-4 and I snuck out before the Belt Parkway turned into Bumper Cars On Ice.

Bumpercarsonice2 The change in the weather makes it hard to gauge the respective merits of the times of the two stakes races on the holiday card. Before the snow, Taqarub won the featured (but run as the 3rd) $70,045 Jimmy Winkfield for 3-year-olds by 8 1/4 lengths in a sparkling 1:09.26. Two and a half hours later, the track now a slushy white, older and more accomplished statebred sprinters led by Mor Chances needed 1:09.70 in the  $67,750 Kashatreya Stakes. Four of the day's first five winners led at every call, while the last two were won by the early trailer. (Also, there's a $35k carryover but not until racing resumes Thursday.)

However you want to split the variant or your bias notes, Taqarub clearly ran a big race. The 3-year-old Shadwell/McLaughlin/Aldebaran colt is now 3 for 3. The only caveat is that he's gotten unchallenged leads in all three of his starts. He had seemed likely to face early heat today from Great Debater and Z Day, but the former stumbled badly at the start and the latter was scratched to run in the Hutcheson at Gulfstream Jan. 30.

Z Day's not the only one getting out of the snow; I'm off to Vegas for the National Handicapping Championship, which begins Friday, and then to Miami Beach for next Monday's Eclipse Awards. I know, rough gig, but someone's got to do it.


--Here's the holiday weekend graded-stakes scoreboard:


Ikigai, now 5 for 8, was making his graded-stakes debut while Nownownow was winning for the first time since the inaugural Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf at Monmouth 15 months ago. Their styles could not be more different -- Ikigai's a blazing front-runner on dirt, Nownownow a furious closer on grass and synth -- but both are sons of Whywhywhy, the 2002 Sanford and Futurity winner and beaten favorite in Vindication's Breeders' Cup Juvenile that year.

Flip Dawson More than 1 year ago
Some notes to Buffalo Joe, and the rest of the clan on these pages. I hit 2 of 2 big bets in the last 6 days. I played a repeating jockey who had just won a big race (stake at $9.80.) He then came right back, paying $49.00 even to win. The best was today. In race 4 at the Big A, I played a $60.00 cold triactor of 1-8-3 from inside info, and it paid $187.90 for $2.00.(40 cents more than at Big A?!) My return was $5637.00.I had it 30 times. My win odds were 93.95 to 1. ----------------------------- Friday is handing me another cold triactor.Some of you may ask why I play them cold, but for some reason, I hate betting against myself. ---------------------------- So, am going to target onto Sunshine Millions this Sat.(repeat boys).Plus my cold tri. People say I'm a tight-wad, and they're right!! ------------------------ PS, want one of the horses in Friday's cold tri? Go hunting in entries, and when you see a STUNNING gal, get the wallet out.
Monty Anderson More than 1 year ago
I'm reading the articles about the conflict between Magna/Chruchill and the Las Vegas Casinos and it just does not make sense to me nor does the whole simulcasting market arena. Why don't simulcast bets get treated just like regular bets in that they are "taxed" as if they were bet in the home state where the races are run and the tracks split the track portion with the bet taker (the simulcast facility) on a more or less equal basis? In this modern age of technology, it doesn't cost that much to take a bet and this would definitely eliminate the "rebate shops" that have threatened the industry for so long and made the odds fluctuate at the last minute for supposedly "unexplained reasons." Maybe I don't understand the economics well enough to even be typing this, but this seems like the best solution to this whole rediculous problem. Can't we all just get along for the good of the game???
ponyman More than 1 year ago
The Donn--hope to see you there. Only going if weather is nice. This Florida living spoiled me. Must be at least 70 and sunny. Ponyman
mark c More than 1 year ago
Matt harper says "get rid of the (small)subsidized racetracks"..You mean like NYRA tracks,that the taxpayers of NY bailout every few years to the tune of a few hundred million dollars??
Matt Harper More than 1 year ago
I received an email to today stating that the powers that be in the industry were going to to start lobbying for the PACE ACT. In essence it repeals the federal witholding tax on winnings of more than $5,000.00... Anyone that thinks that Congress is going to pass legislation that will take money out of their pockets to spend is absolutely crazy! But leave it to the racing industry..to try and do it now. Oh yeah, while we are in a recession and on our way to a depression. I hope in the next 5 to 10 years that the smaller "subsidized" tracks go by the wayside and we can have racing 4 days a week at 3 or 4 tracks around the country. Get rid of the Polycrap/synthetic and lets get back to real racing for real purses with real horsemen.
The Plod Boys More than 1 year ago
We take a contrary view of the of the "disappearing speed bias" of January 19 at the Big A. Yes, 4 of 5 early winners went W-to-W, but one was “with PLOD” while none was “versus ZIP.” The big close in the finale can be attributed to the one-horse ZIP set by CC Lopez on Run From Hell. We’re giving the entire card a BIAS figure of +81, indicating a very modest advantage to closers.
C More than 1 year ago
George, Bias is a real tricky thing, as 2 players can look at a few races and have completely different thoughts on it. As you know, during the winter, it usually pays to be near the lead at Aqueduct. However, I wouldn't classify the first 5 races as being particularly influenced by a pronounced bias. I saw several horses close from the back of the pack in the stretch and the track didn't seem to carry a few others in the final stages, as I would've expected with a true bias. Also, those winners were mostly heavy favorites. And what happened in races 6-10? Personally, if I'm looking at these horses for next time, I'm not upgrading or downgrading based on what happened in races 1-5. I'm sure many will disagree with that.
Dunque More than 1 year ago
George315-have to consider that perhaps Servis' 2nd race winner was coming out of a key race. The 3rd place finisher in his previous start (who Servis' charge bested) won a Philly Park MCL event 10 minutes before the AQU 2nd. If only I had used that nugget in my betting strategy for that race! But don't forget, while unusual, it's not uncommon to see good MCL horses come up and win MSW events. Servis is a serious trainer. I'm sure he wouldn't have shipped there if he didn't think the horse was legit.
george315 More than 1 year ago
Steve, Two things to keep in mind if taking notes on today's card. Taqarub blasted Great Debater at the gate. He eliminated the other speed in the race. Also, races 1-5 seemed like they were a part of a huge speed favoring sequence. R2 really caught my 'biased' eyes.