10/20/2008 7:42PM

Legends, Beyers, questions

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The Living Legend Jockey race at Oak Tree last weekend was a wonderful stroll down memory lane.  The great Sandy Hawley won it with a crafty gate-to-wire ride, but I was overjoyed to see Jerry Bailey, the master at getting a horse to switch leads, show off his patented technique on the runner-up.  Here's the video courtesy of youtube:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LlfKxLi9oQw

Bailey is on the #1, and is saving ground in behind the leader turning for home.  At 1:51 of the video, his mount is racing on his wrong lead.  At 1:56, watch Bailey lean his body to his left.  The subtle weight shift is an excellent cue to his mount, and the horse soon switches to his correct lead.  Bailey wasn't going to win this race - the winner was simply too good - but it could be argued that by getting his mount to change leads, he saved the place.  It was a textbook example, and one that the young riders watching in the jock's room could learn from.

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Ever since it was announced that the BC would be run over a synthetic main track, I've been salivating at the prospect of playing interesting European longshots.  Thus, don't be surprised if I end up selecting multiple foreign longshots in the Pro-Ride races. 

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Here are the winning Beyer Speed Figures from last week's stakes races:

*Birdonthewire (Crc):  You Luckie Mann (M. Wolfson/J. Bridgmohan) - 108
*Cassidy (Crc):  Frolic's Dream (M. Wolfson/J. Bridgmohan) - 106
*Lexus Raven Run (Kee):  Informed Decision (J. Sheppard/J. Velazquez) - 105
*HPBA Governor's Cup (CT):  Researcher (J. Runco/L. Perez) - 101
*Miami Mile (Crc):  Soldier's Dancer (D. Vivian/M. Cruz) - 101
*HPBA Bolivar, H. Ferry and s'town Mayors (CT):  Lacewell (M. Beck/S. Carmouche III) - 100
*Anoakia (OSA):  Mi Chiamano Mimi (M. Mitchell/G. Gomez) - 100
*Hollywood (Crc):  Slewfoundmoney (M. Wolfson/E. Castro) - 100
*Hudson (Bel):  Stormin Normandy (R. Dutrow Jr./E. Prado) - 100

*Sycamore (Kee): Always First - GB (T. Voss/R. Douglas) - 99
*Oklahoma Derby (RP):  Golden Yank (G. Thomas/H. Theriot II) - 99
*Sleepy Hollow (Bel):  Trinity Magic (S. Asmussen/E. Prado) - 99
*Spend a Buck (Crc):  It's a Bird (M. Wolfson/J. Bridgmohan) - 98
*Mohawk (Bel):  Logic Way (R. Dutrow Jr./E. Prado) - 97
*Vivano (Bel):  Thunders Dove (N. Zito/S. Elliott) - 97
*Pin Oak Valley View (Kee):  Acoma (D. Carroll/J. Leparoux) - 96
*Remington Park Sprint Championship (RP):  Jonesboro (R. Morse/M. Mena) - 95
*River Memories (WO):  Quelle Beaute (R. Attfield/J. McAleney) - 95
*West Virginia Breeders' Classic (CT):  Ghostly Thunder (G. Capuano/T. Dunkelberger) - 94
*Rood and Riddle Dowager (Kee):  Herboriste - GB (M. Matz/J. Leparoux) - 94
*Empire Classic (Bel):  Stud Muffin (D. Duggan/A. Garcia) - 94
*Budweiser Special (Alb):  Wind Water (C. Hartman/B. Theriot) - 94
*Remington Green (RP):  Steve's Double (R. Werner/H. Theriot II) - 93
*P. G. Johnson (1st Div.) (Med):  Canadian Ballet (L. Rice/C. Velasquez) - 92
*Florida Stallion In Reality (Crc):  Big Drama (D. Fawkes/P. Lopez) - 91
*P. G. Johnson (2nd Div.) (Med):  Cocktail Attire (M. Trombetta/R. Maragh) - 91

*Violet (Med):  American Border (J. Servis/J. Lezcano) - 89
*Ada (RP):  Awsugahnow (I. Wilkes/E. Martin Jr.) - 89
*Remington Park Oaks (RP):  Euphony (D. Von Hemel/M. Berry) - 87
*West Virginia Lottery Breeders' Classic (CT):  Fool Proof (L. Curtis/T. Dunkelberger) - 87
*Jack Goodman (OSA): Backbackbackgone (P. Miller/R. Bejarano) - 86
*Ticonderoga (Bel):  Love Cove (T. Albertrani/K. Desormeaux) - 86
*Remington MEC Mile (RP):  Kick On (J. Petalino/M. Mena) - 85
*Wooden Star (Haw):  Tobin's Royalty (T. Domenosky/T. Riggs) - 85
*WV Jefferson Security Bank Cavada Breeders' Classic (CT): Julie B (G. Yetsook/L. Reynolds) - 84
*Maple Leaf (WO):  Tell It as It Is (J. Smith/E. Wilson) - 84
*Iroquois (Bel):  Ice Cool Kitty (R. Dutrow Jr./M. Luzzi) - 83
*Fanfreluche (WO):  High Mist (R. Baker/E. Wilson) - 82
*Michigan Sire (3yo+ colts) (Pnl):  Meadow Vespers (R. Rettele/I. Gonzalez) - 82
*Invitational (fillies) (PM):  Jimbos Fire Ant (B. Root/D. Hoonan-Trujillo) - 81
*HPBA Charles Town and Ranson Mayor (CT):  Star Snuck (E. Estrada/E. Vaz) - 80

*Gate Dancer (LaD):  Bertsgoldenmissile (J. Lara/L. Meche) - 79
*Florida Stallion My Dear Girl (Crc):  La Chica Sensual (P. Andrade/E. Castro) - 79
*Michigan Sire (3yo colts) (Pnl):  Bipolar Express (G. Bennett/T. Houghton) - 77
*Classy 'n Smart (WO):  Bold Corky (W. Armata/T. Pizarro) - 77
*Blue Hen (Del):  Bon Jovi Girl (T. Ritchey/J. Caraballo) - 77
*ATBA Fall Sales (Colts) (TuP):  Minnetonka Mist (D. Van Winkle/J. Rivera) - 77
*Maid of the Mist (Bel): Stormy's Smile (D. Galluscio/J. Lezcano) - 77
*Michigan Sire (3yo+ filly) (Pnl):  Valley Loot (R. Allen/M. Allen) - 77
*Louisiana Stallion (Colts) (LaD):  Foreign Production (J. Hodges/L. Meche) - 76
*E. L. Gaylord (RP):  Phoenician Moon (L. Chleborad/M. Escobar) - 76
*WV JCCofC Dash for Cash Breeders' Classic (CT):  Rhythmic Moves (J. Casey/C. Castro) - 75
*WV Enterprise RAC BC Distaff (CT): Cedar Run's Emblem (T. Grams/L. Reynolds) - 73
*West Virginia "Onion Juice" Breeders' Classic (CT): Punk Robinson (E. Tobin/X. Perez) - 70

*WV FI Vincent Moscarelli Memorial Breeders' (CT):  Pagan Cat (J. Rofe/J. Acosta) - 69
*West Virginia DOT Breeders' Classic (CT):  We're in the Money (O. Figgins III/G. Almodovar - 69
*Michigan Sire (3yo fillies) (Pnl):  Wave Pool (R. Allen/F. Mata) - 68
*Permian Basin (Zia):  Lady Hi Teck (J. Nall/A. Martinez) - 66
*Finger Lakes Juvenile Fillies (FL):  Vintage Tough (M. Ferraro/J. Davila Jr.) - 64
*Michigan Sire (2yo colts) (Pnl): Mr. Conclusive (S. Adkins/T. Houghton) - 63
*Invitational (colts) (PM): One Quick Brew (J. Fergason/J. Torres) - 62
*Louisiana Stallion (Fillies) (LaD):  Wanna Cuddle (A. Ishaq/D. Simington) - 62

*Michigan Sire (2yo fillies) (Pnl):  Skyline Star (R. Gorham/T. Houghton) - 52
*ATBA Fall Sales (Fillies) (TuP): Bella Cardona (M. Pearson/A. Morales) - 51

*OTOBA Sales (PM): Chief Jafatica (J. Fergason/M. Anderson) - 48
*West Virginia TC Nutrition Breeders' Classic (CT):  Leva Mae (S. Cooney/G. Larrosa) - 43

Here are the lifetime past performances for the highest and lowest Beyer Stakes performers of the week:

Download Hilow.pdf

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Dan,
As I sit and listen to some Yes,Metallica, and Uriah Heep and a little bit of old Queen H-capping the Belmont card I have a question. Has an alsoeligible ever been the morning line favorite? I feel that the #12 Senor Enirco an AE should be the fav. I hope he stays at 5/1.
Dan,
In the Frizette I see that the owner of Miss Ocean City is Leon Blusiewicz. Was he a trainer many years ago in Maryland. I was looking through some of my Dad's old racing stuff and came across some charts from the early 80's and saw his name.
Michael H

An also-eligible certainly can be the morning line favorite.  While the odds of the runners in the body of the race generally add up to 100% + the takeout, the morning line odds for the also-eligible runners are held at a different standard.  They can be set at whatever the handicapper feels would be appropriate if the horse was to start.
Leon Blusiewicz, the owner of Miss Ocean City, was a very successful trainer in his day.  Here is his bio page from the Breeders' Cup website:

http://74.125.95.104/search?q=cache:X8h76Eqn1Q8J:www.breederscup.com/bio.aspx%3Fid%3D2359+Leon+Blusiewicz&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us

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Dan, could you post the chart for the three races from Arc De Triomphe Day?

The DRF does not create charts for foreign races.  The best way to find out lengths-beaten, comment lines, and more information would be to go to our friends at http://www.racingpost.co.uk

They're the best at providing up-to-date news on international racing, and their race capsules are extremely informative. 

Want to see the capsule for the Arc?  Go to their site, type in ZARKAVA's name in the "Search For" section on the top right of the screen.  Then click on her name, and then click on her last line for the capsule.  In order to view the news, you will have to go through a very painless, free registration.

Good luck!

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1. Have you read 'Betting Synthetic Surfaces' and if so is it any good. I was thinking about getting it, but thought that it is too early to buya  book on the subject because, the learning curve is still pretty steep on synthetic tracks and more data needs to be accumulated over time.

2.What does the DRF Corporate Office look like. I was wondering if it is housed in a building with other business, or is a stand alone business and how many stories tall?

3. How many employees does DRF have.

4. Is DRF publicly traded on the stock exchange?

5. Where is the DRF printed and how is it distributed throughout the country.

4. I think you said one time you had a chair with tape on it. Do you still have that chair and do you have an office with a view.

5. Dan, do you have, as part of your handicapping library, books on horse racing injuries and ailments, and do you have an interest in it.?  Are you familiar with ailments and treatments. Do you think knowing about a horses ailments makes you a better handicapper.

6. How long does it take to clean a stall. Is the horse inside the stall while it is getting cleaned or is he taken out. Do the people that clean stalls get paid by the hour or by the stall. How often is a stall cleaned?

Dan,

I just got back and I see you have a new 'Trip Handicapping' DVD out. Maybe it has already been commented on here. I don't know. How long has it been out? You can be sure I wiil turn in my pop bottles and aluminum cans and you will at least have 2 sales. The one your mother bought and mine. Just kidding, it looks interesting and I am sure it will do well!

Thanks
chicago gerry

1.  I haven't had a chance to start Betting Synthetic Surfaces, but I will as soon as the Breeders' Cup crush simmers down.  It can't hurt to learn some more viewpoints and data on these tracks.  They're not going away anytime soon so our two choices are to avoid them altogether, or learn everything we can about them.  The money is still green if you cash on synthetics so I'll choose the latter option. 

2.  We're on the seventh floor of 100 Broadway near the corner of Broadway and Wall Street.  We're in a building with several different businesses.  To be honest, I have no idea how tall the building is, but I'll guess at least 20 stories.   

3.  I'd say we have a few dozen people in the office, but we have many, many more out at the track, working out of our Long Island office, working from home, or working at our various print sites throughout North America.

4.  The tape has worn away, and I'm basically sitting on a ripped piece of fabric covering the foam padding of the chair.  Classy!  No office, no view.  I'm in a fairly nice-sized cubicle, and my view is of the mountains of papers, magazines, reference materials, two computers, and racing memorabilia that clutter my desk.

5.  I'm certainly not an expert on horse injuries, but I do consider them when handicapping races.  As our "Disabled List" can attest (I know, I know, I'm way behind.  I'll get there eventually), horses running back after being injured are often poor plays at short odds. 

6.  It depends on the person mucking the stall.  I was the worst stall-mucker when I worked at Yonkers Raceway during the early 90's, and it would take me a long time to get it just right.  I would clean the stalls while the harness horses were out jogging.  I was paid by the week, not by the stall, and I did a through job once a day.

The Trip Handicapping DVD went on sale Friday afternoon so it's relatively new.  I'm not sure my mother will buy it, though.  She's more of a speed, pace, and class handicapper than a replay watcher.

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Dan, can you give your impression of Raven's Pass and H-thenavigator, the QEII, and where you think they fit?
Here is the QEII, raven's pass is in the dark green.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xe-PBoaCH1k

Can anyone tell me the general bio of a rider named Edgar Paucar (pow-car?)?

Can anyone tell me about repriced as a sire?

slewofdamascus

Both seem to be pointing for the Breeders' Cup Classic, and that's interesting considering neither horse has gone longer than a mile.  I give Raven's Pass a slight edge (don't hold me to anything until I make my final picks) as he seems a bit sharper right now.  Raven's Pass was beaten three straight by Henrythenavigator earlier in the year, but came back to take the QEII over his rival nicely. 
Can they get the Classic distance?  Raven's Pass, by Elusive Quality, is a half-brother to Gigawatt, a Grade 3 winner over a mile on turf (got 8 1/2 furlongs successfully).    The dam was a Grade 3 winner on turf at two.  Raven's Pass has a miler's pedigree, but anything can happen in this year's synthetic Classic, and he certainly deserves more than a passing glance.

Henrythenavigator is a full sister to Queen Cleopatra, a Group 3 winner at a mile in Europe.  She also finished third in the Prix de Diane at 1 3/8 miles.  His immediate female family is filled with speed.  The dam was a Group 1 winner at seven furlongs.

Personally, I'd love to see them duke it out in the Mile over a surface and distance that they prefer.  The Classic is a question mark, but at the right price, I can see the argument that they fit.

According to DRF stats, Edgar Paucar has 6073 starts, 1057 wins,  944 seconds, and 935 thirds.  That's good for a 17% winners and a $1.50 ROI.  A native of Peru, Paucar won five races on one card at Beulah in January, and has taken down six riding titles at Beulah since 2004.  He attended the same jockey school in Peru as Edgar Prado and Rafael Bejarano.

Repriced, a son of the great Roberto out of Feature Price (by Quack), was a stakes-winner on turf at one mile.  He's a half-brother to Grade 2 winner Top Rung and Grade 3 winner Top Cashmere, and is a full brother to Group 3 turf winner Undercut.  He entered stud in 1995, and stands at Darby Dan Farm in Kentucky.  From 10 crops to race, he only has 12 stakes-winners with the best being Rich in Spirit, a multiple Grade 3 winner on the grass.  To date, Repriced's best runners have come on grass.  Here's Repriced's page from the Darby Dan website (he's a big fella - 17 hands tall)

http://www.darbydan.com/stallions/repriced-conformation-racerecord.shtml

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Alan,  I'm still working on securing an answer for your Beyer query.  Hopefully, I'll have one for you in the next day or two.

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Dan, are you coming for the Big Weekend?
Ivan

I wish I could, but I'll be stuck wearing more holes in my seat cover at the DRF office.  Things just haven't worked out tripwise as I'd hoped recently.  I wanted to squeeze in a Fall Keeneland trip before the BC as well, but it just wasn't meant to be, I guess.

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Dan our Man,
I'm hoping you are feeling better, but may I say that on last Friday TVG's "Blinkers Off" you were not looking sick..In fact you looked very much the Debonaire' Dan...I think it is time for you to upgrade your DRF photo on the web site.
And if I may ask,(since I've had Lasik surgery) contacts or Lasik? to show off those Pretty Blues...
SR Vegas

Thanks.  They say "First-Time Lasik" helps the Handicapping process, but I still got the old donut on Blinkers Off.  Hey, at least, I can now see the past performances.  They say that helps!

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Wasn't it Ernie Holmes who had a bald head with only a arrow pointing forward on top.  Mean looking hombre!  I think I also saw one of those old NFL films where it was either Holmes or Otis Sistrunk sitting on the sidelines without the helmet and huge puffs of smoke steaming from the top of his head.  Indelible image.
Craig

I was re-reading this excerpt from Tributes II, Remembering Some of the World's Greatest Professional Wrestlers (stop laughing) by Dave Meltzer:

"..Just a few weeks earlier, Andre <the Giant> won the most famous Battle Royale of his career, at Wrestlemania II in Chicago, a match which included a half-dozen NFL football players including William "Refrigerator" Perry, who was coming off a season where he was the most popular player in the league.  Andre got some wire service coverage again, because being around the 500-pound mark, he dwarfed the 6-3, 330-pound Fridge.  Because the football players weren't workers, they did a dress rehearsal a few days earlier in secret.  A few of the wrestlers and footballers were traveling back from the rehearsal when one of the football players, Ernie Holmes, a former all-pro with the Pittsburgh Steelers, was bragging about how tough he was.  Everyone was getting tired of it, but nobody said anything until Andre blurted out in that guttural voice, "You talk too much, you know what I mean," and Holmes didn't say another word the rest of the trip as apparently one of the wrestlers whispered to Holmes that you don't know what tough is until you get this guy mad..."

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So with that said, I am wondering what others have learned specific to HandiGambling 106?
Van Savant

Dan, can we get another chance?
slewofdamascus

HandiGambling 106 was a real head-scratcher.  The only way I could even look twice at Ata Benchmark as a contender, even almost a week after the race, was if I gave extra credence to angles like "Blinkers On," and "Front Wraps Off" in weaker races like these maiden claimers.   Perhaps something to think about, but still, what a result!

Let's take a week off from HandiGambling in order to concentrate fully on the Breeders' Cup.  SR Vegas can make her selection for next Wednesday's HandiGambling 107.

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Hello Dan
What do you think the stud fee for Big Brown will start at?
Tony Giordano

Put me down for $75,000.

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Does anyone know Casino Drive's BSF in the allowance race?
Kat

Casino Drive got a 92 BSF for his allowance win.
Ivan

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Where in the DRF do I find an indicator in a horse's past performance lines as to which of the races that horse previously ran in were restricted to state breds (as opposed to open company).  I have searched through the various "help" and tutorial screens and cannot seem to find this info.

Thank you
Rick

You'll find the information in the class line of the past performance.  Take the example of "The Real Seal" below:

Download TheRealSeal.pdf

The Real Seal's most recent race was the WVBrdrClsc.  To the immediate left of the race name, there is a capital letter S in a box.  That indicates that the race was for statebreds.  If a capital letter R was in the box, then the race was restricted. 
Hope this helps.

***

Talk to you soon,

Dan

skelly More than 1 year ago
My curiosity is eating at me….. Would anyone be able to guide/answer what the pick 6 payout would have been if Curlin would of won the BC Classic?
nancyb More than 1 year ago
If anyone is attending BC - I am in Sect J Row 20, seat 101 - think(hope) that's on an aisle Best of luck to all playing tomorrow and let's hope all horses have safe trips.
PGM More than 1 year ago
Midwest Ed & Stephen Taylor, Just A Theory: Catalano/Calabrese have always had a touch-and-go relationship with jockeys. I recall reading a story before the 2008 IL Derby of how HAW/AP fixture E. T. Baird (who won bunches of Cal/Cat races in 2007 at Arlington) and Catalano broke off terms during the early days of the Gulfstream meet. Baird would have been first call on Cal/Cat horses at GP. Douglas may be simply another that got irked the wrong way. It also doesn't help that Douglas rides first-call at Arlington for Pletcher, Catalano's main competition for Arlington training titles. Midwest Ed, As for Coa in the BC Dirt Mile on Lewis Michael, I like the move to Coa but I haven't handicapped the race in depth. (I just now finished Friday).
Greg More than 1 year ago
Cup Friday R3--Intangaroo, I still think she'll get the pace she needs. She's tough and frequently overloooked, probably because of connections but they've done a great job with her. R4--Maram, not strong opinion but she has good finishing times, a good post. She's done nothing wrong. I'm also using Beyond our Reach in doubles. R5--Stardom Bound, ok. But I like Van Lear Rose (contest selection). Her has was good, rallying well into a very slow pace and was 2nd on Poly at 7 to Laragh. She's improved with distance and will be a huge price. R6--Forever Together. Strong finisher, should get the distance. Last was real good and trainer is excellent. R7--Music Note. Hasn't done much wrong, nice price alternative and will at least get the jump on Zenyatta.
Ivan More than 1 year ago
Alan, Please change my BC Classic pick to Champs Elysees. Ivan
Stephen Taylor More than 1 year ago
The key to all of our handicapping success (whether you think they'll do well or whether you think they won't) is the Europeans. I'm using Euros on top in 7 of the 14 races but not because of surface. In the Marathon, Muhanak appears to be an inviting price (I was initially leaning towards Big Booster on top)and as far as the turf, after Arlington Million day I just think that Europe has higher quality grass horses. I also used them on top in all 4 2yo races because I feel like, again, there may be some more quality with the exception of Stardom Bound, who I didn't use on top solely because of lack of value. One European trainer (sorry, I forgot who) said it best about the "dirt/poly" races-with this surface horses can run and decide a champion-not a dirt champion, not a turf champion, just a champion. I'm not gonna lie and say the surface had nothing to do with my selections, but I can say it had very little to do with them.
SR Vegas More than 1 year ago
Welcome skydimeauntie! Have fun with this crowd, and good luck and Enjoy the Breeder's Cup! SR Vegas
Hasenji More than 1 year ago
Aha, my BC betting money just arrived in the mail, in the form of my check for a week of jury duty in federal district court -- now we know at least SOME of our tax money is going to a good cause! ;) And Dan, please tell the DRF web elves to never, ever let something like that happen again, I almost had a stroke at the thought of having to figure out the BC all by myself -- you guys are a great resource of info and opinions! Good luck to all!
Annie More than 1 year ago
Katieattherail, OMG! A George Weaver firster paying $30 capped off the $590K pick6 payoffs for 4 people. One of them could have been you. You were the one touting George Weaver for the last months, weren't you? Of course you would have had to get the first five before that. lol Annie
Steve T More than 1 year ago
ktalbany, Synthetics are as different from each other as dirt is to turf. There are four varieties - each unique: PolyTrack - the oldest synthetic, it tends to play like turf. Turf horses do well on it. The maintenance of the track changes the running properties DRAMATICALLY. Turfway, Arlington and Del Mar play much faster than Keeneland and Woodbine. Cushion - now only used at Hollywood, it holds speed better than any other synthetic. The horses that can run on dirt or turf ("tweeners") do best. More wire jobs than other surfaces. Tapeta - plays fair but slightly slower than dirt. Seems to have equal numbers of frontrunners, stalkers and closers. ProRide - only have a month's worth of experience but plays VERY close to dirt, seems to parallel Saratoga. If you are handicapping the surface, treat it like dirt - you will get into deep trouble if you try to treat it differently. Hope that helps.