01/04/2013 9:19AM

Latest Kentucky Derby Future Odds


There are 17 weeks until the Kentucky Derby. That, real racing fans know, is two lifetimes. Nevertheless, the Wynn Race and Sports Book in Las Vegas has been issuing future book odds for the 2013 Derby for a while now. And since there are two graded stakes for 3-year-olds on Saturday (the Grade 2 Jerome at Aqueduct and the Grade 3 Sham at Santa Anita), it might be timely to check in on Wynn’s latest odds update.

I doubt many will be surprised that Shanghai Bobby, who is a mortal lock to be voted champion 2-year-old male of 2012, is not Wynn's future book Derby favorite. Shanghai Bobby is an undefeated (he’s 5 for 5) Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner, and yet you can’t turn around without bumping into someone who is a disbeliever. That’s understandable. Although Shanghai Bobby was game prevailing in the Juvenile in his first start around two turns after contesting a fast pace, he walked home, and was carried by a speed-favoring track. In any case, Wynn currently has Shanghai Bobby as its third choice at 18-1.

Wynn’s current Derby favorite at 12-1 is Violence, who is also undefeated, and who, like Shanghai Bobby, is trained by Todd Pletcher. In truth, Violence is fortunate to be 3 for 3. He could have been disqualified from first in the Nashua Stakes after coming in through the stretch and racking up three opponents to his inside. But Violence was good winning the CashCall Futurity in his last start, and he looks like a genuine two turn horse.

Second choice between Violence and Shanghai Bobby at 14-1 is Uncaptured. Uncaptured improved his record to 6 for 7 (and 2 for 2 on dirt) when he won the mysteriously slow Kentucky Jockey Club in his 2-year-old finale. But it is certainly worth noting that Uncaptured previously dominated the Iroquois Stakes, meaning he swept Churchill Downs’s two big late-season main track 2-year-old stakes.

Keeping in mind that their odds reflect actual action taken, Wynn currently has 15 horses at 40-1 or less in its future book Derby odds. Here they are:

Violence                             12-1

Uncaptured                        14-1

Shanghai Bobby                 18-1

Frac Daddy                         22-1

Flashback                           25-1

Goldencents                       25-1

Normandy Invasion            25-1

Overanalyze                       30-1

Archwarrior                         35-1

Capo Bastone                     35-1

Power Broker                      35-1

He’s Had Enough                40-1

Palace Malice                      40-1

Purple Egg                          40-1

War Academy                     40-1