11/17/2013 1:07PM

Latest Derby Future Book Odds


If you believe what you hear, some people don’t focus on the Kentucky Derby until after the post positions are drawn. Most folks really get into the Derby as the intensity of the prep races increases in late winter and early spring. And then there are some, including yours truly, who start at least thinking about the Derby after the official sign goes up right after the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

For my compatriots in the latter camp, I thought it would be interesting to take a peek at the latest, post-Breeders’ Cup future book Kentucky Derby odds from the Race and Sports Book at Wynn Las Vegas.

It is important to keep in mind that these future book odds are, to a significant extent, a reflection of actual action taken so far by Wynn on the 2014 Derby. But what you make of the money bet so far on next year’s Derby in general terms depends on your perspective. Many will think most of this future book action is terribly uninformed money, while others will think at least a portion of it is insider money getting in on the ground floor of a good thing. Putting aside for a moment the hardly insignificant matters of wagering so far in advance, and tying up betting capital over a significant period of time, I think it’s a little funny that you could really say the same thing about conventional betting every day, in every race you see.

Anyway, Wynn currently has 14 2-year-olds listed at 50-1 or less for the 2014 Derby (and if the one you’re interested in is not among this group, just know you can get at least more than 50-1 on him if you want). And it appears those who have gotten down so far were not impressed with the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, because the favorite right now by a wide margin at 12-1 is Honor Code. Honor Code was a fast closing, narrowly beaten second in the Champagne at Belmont after a most impressive debut score at Saratoga, and was kept out of the Breeders’ Cup in favor of the Remsen, to be run at Aqueduct a week from this Saturday.

Co-second choices right now at 22-1 are New Year’s Day, upset winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and Shared Belief, winner of the Hollywood Prevue in his second start.

Next at 25-1 are two colts who would have to be regarded as underlays given their relative merits. They are Almost Famous, winner of an allowance route at Churchill Downs with blinkers on in his third start, and Tap It Rich, fifth in the Juvenile in his second start.

Havana, who prevailed over Honor Code in the Champagne in his second start, and followed with a second in the Juvenile, is 30-1. So is Strong Mandate, third in the Juvenile after a seventh place finish in the Champagne, and winner of the Hopeful.

Wynn has three listed at 40-1. They are Cairo Prince, winner of the Nashua in his second start; Coup de Grace, winner of his recent debut at Aqueduct, and Mosler, who notched his maiden win at Belmont in his second start.

Bobby’s Kitten, third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, and winner of the Pilgrim Stakes on turf before that, can be had right now at 45-1.

Finally, Wynn has three more pegged at 50-1. They are Bond Holder, fourth in the Juvenile, upset winner of the FrontRunner before that, and who seems like an overlay at this number; Mexikoma, sixth in the Juvenile; and Noble Moon, third in the Nashua Stakes in his second start.