11/17/2013 12:07PM

Latest Derby Future Book Odds

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If you believe what you hear, some people don’t focus on the Kentucky Derby until after the post positions are drawn. Most folks really get into the Derby as the intensity of the prep races increases in late winter and early spring. And then there are some, including yours truly, who start at least thinking about the Derby after the official sign goes up right after the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

For my compatriots in the latter camp, I thought it would be interesting to take a peek at the latest, post-Breeders’ Cup future book Kentucky Derby odds from the Race and Sports Book at Wynn Las Vegas.

It is important to keep in mind that these future book odds are, to a significant extent, a reflection of actual action taken so far by Wynn on the 2014 Derby. But what you make of the money bet so far on next year’s Derby in general terms depends on your perspective. Many will think most of this future book action is terribly uninformed money, while others will think at least a portion of it is insider money getting in on the ground floor of a good thing. Putting aside for a moment the hardly insignificant matters of wagering so far in advance, and tying up betting capital over a significant period of time, I think it’s a little funny that you could really say the same thing about conventional betting every day, in every race you see.

Anyway, Wynn currently has 14 2-year-olds listed at 50-1 or less for the 2014 Derby (and if the one you’re interested in is not among this group, just know you can get at least more than 50-1 on him if you want). And it appears those who have gotten down so far were not impressed with the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, because the favorite right now by a wide margin at 12-1 is Honor Code. Honor Code was a fast closing, narrowly beaten second in the Champagne at Belmont after a most impressive debut score at Saratoga, and was kept out of the Breeders’ Cup in favor of the Remsen, to be run at Aqueduct a week from this Saturday.

Co-second choices right now at 22-1 are New Year’s Day, upset winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and Shared Belief, winner of the Hollywood Prevue in his second start.

Next at 25-1 are two colts who would have to be regarded as underlays given their relative merits. They are Almost Famous, winner of an allowance route at Churchill Downs with blinkers on in his third start, and Tap It Rich, fifth in the Juvenile in his second start.

Havana, who prevailed over Honor Code in the Champagne in his second start, and followed with a second in the Juvenile, is 30-1. So is Strong Mandate, third in the Juvenile after a seventh place finish in the Champagne, and winner of the Hopeful.

Wynn has three listed at 40-1. They are Cairo Prince, winner of the Nashua in his second start; Coup de Grace, winner of his recent debut at Aqueduct, and Mosler, who notched his maiden win at Belmont in his second start.

Bobby’s Kitten, third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, and winner of the Pilgrim Stakes on turf before that, can be had right now at 45-1.

Finally, Wynn has three more pegged at 50-1. They are Bond Holder, fourth in the Juvenile, upset winner of the FrontRunner before that, and who seems like an overlay at this number; Mexikoma, sixth in the Juvenile; and Noble Moon, third in the Nashua Stakes in his second start.

Anonymous More than 1 year ago
Once upon a time, the top 2yos actually had some form going into winter quarters - 6 to 10 races or more, many of them, stretching from April, May, or June to November. They ran in allowance races after their maiden wins, often allowance races without conditions (no n1x or n2x, just weight off for not having won races) before running in stakes races. A Winter Book made sense when the 2yos actually raced enough to display their strengths and weaknesses. Nowadays three, maybe 4 carefully selected races in the late/summer & fall and off they go to Florida or wherever. Also, when the top 2yos actually had form, most had breeding that actually might be able to handle a classic distance; nowadays, many of the top 2yos are bred to be exactly that - early maturing sorts, who will be overtaken when the classic sorts start to mature in the spring. It is a much different ballgame.
Bocajack823 More than 1 year ago
I played Funnycide in all 3 parimutuel pools for $100 so I am " out for life " as far a futures........
Ken Herlich More than 1 year ago
what would be the odd's that none on the list win
rahman Williams More than 1 year ago
9/5
Ray Sousa More than 1 year ago
the only way to get value here is to play the exacta pool box 5 and hope at least 2 or 3 survive.i always get a kick from having exactas with incredible payouts live on derby day...sometimes I even got off a horse I liked earlier in one of the pools. and have had a nice day anyway when he completes an exacta horses like animal kingdom and nehro and ill have another who I liked all along and loved on derby day.in the former case the exactas were huge in the later much better than the exacta on the day.and would have been huge had dulahan got up for second.
AzHorsePlayer More than 1 year ago
I remember betting on Silver Charm at 45-1 and Fu Peg at 25-1 both $50 win bets...the problem is I haven't cashed since then and I get suckered into it every year.
rahman Williams More than 1 year ago
Futures is a sucker bet Vegas sport books love them. But they are fun and give you best bragging rights of any future pool horse racing or sports. Betting $20 or $50 on a horse with a top trainer is not going to ruin your year.
Bob Fritz More than 1 year ago
Count me as one of those who doesn't pick a Derby horse until the posts are drawn. Suppose you love a horse all winter and he gets stuck in the one hole?
Tom Shea More than 1 year ago
or the 20 hole like Big Brown ? yes many jumped off him because of that and he made it look easy
James Barry More than 1 year ago
Or I'll Have Another in the 19. I got talked off of that one.
John More than 1 year ago
Dont dismiss Tap it Rich too fast ! The clockers have been awed by this horse since he made his first work-out appearance , the only problem is that he is a head case ! A real nut job, but with a ton of talent ! He likely to run 1-2 more races that he will look terrible, but watch out, come Derby Day, if this horse gets his head into running, this son of Tapit, "cha ching "
petem More than 1 year ago
A 20 horse field and Derby day are not a nice fit for head cases.
john More than 1 year ago
Total AGree! He's a beast if he comes into his own!
John More than 1 year ago
Many years ago, we watched a young 3yr old break from the rail at 6furlongs at Hollywood Park, and just over power the field, straight and strong, wire to wire . We luckily were in Las Vegas two weeks later, and got 40-1 on this horse, we each bet $40 to win, suckers, maybe, but we took the shot ! Derby Day, here comes our 40-1 shot rolling down the stretch, drawing off to make our bet a winner, thank you FUSIACHI PEGASUS ! "cha ching "
david_juffet More than 1 year ago
Hey mike interesting article.If you look at future book 1 horses most don't make starting gate in derby and that's months ahead of now. Sorry to say I've all but given up on chasing horses in future pools.great to have an overlay derby day but hard to spot one now. Odds are too low to make any sense to me,would rather buy an extra gift for my grandson.