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Latest Breeders' Cup Classic Future Odds
Since there was some interest in a post I made here two weeks ago concerning Breeders' Cup Classic future book odds from the Race and Sports Book at Wynn Las Vegas, I thought I would post a few of the latest Classic odds from the folks at Wynn, set after the racing of last weekend. I'm not going to relay the odds on every horse, just those of general (or unique to me) interest. Here goes:
Twirling Candy, who was so impressive winning the Californian a two weekends ago, is still the favorite, but is down to 7-1. Crown of Thorns, who goes in Saturday's Stephen Foster, remains second choice at 12-1.
Among those who can be had at 20-1 are Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom, Florida Derby winner Dialed In, prominent Hollywood Gold Cup aspirant First Dude, and Gio Ponti, third as the favorite in the Manhattan on the Belmont Stakes undercard in his first start since the Dubai World Cup.
Havre de Grace, currently the top older female in the country, is 25-1. So, too, is dominant Met Mile winner Tizway.
Frankel, who remained undefeated by holding on in today's St. James Palace at Royal Ascot, is 30-1. Sidney's Candy, former stablemate of Twirling Candy and now a member of Todd Pletcher's barn, is also 30-1.
We'll close it up with Preakness winner Shackleford, who is pegged at 40-1, and Belmont Stakes upsetter Ruler On Ice, who is listed for the first time at 75-1.
gio ponti has never run on dirt? i question that. for vaule bets, ihave to go with gio ponti & shackleford.rest & a little more age will move shackleford .
It doesn't matter how hard should Joel Rosario fight with Twirling Candy. They've gotta prove they're the best jokey-horse of the nation.
I think Animal Kingdom is the play. A 3yr old who still has lots of upside - also has two very important factors working for him: we know he likes the distance/track, and we know he's being pointed to the race. Tizway clearly is better at shorter distances - and I think he'll end up in the dirt mile. (ditto for Sidney's Candy, albeit it may be the other mile race he's pointed towards) Crown of Thorns always shows up and runs well - except for his one start on dirt. And the distance is a question mark. Either way, I can't imagine a person taking 12to1 before the Foster. Plus, just keeping him healthy seems to be quite a chore. Gio Ponti has never run on dirt. And neither has Frankel - who also seems to have distance limitations - and I've heard nothing to suggest this is the race he'll be pointed to. Twirling Candy tired in his one race at the distance. He also is almost guaranteed to fight the jockey during the race - making it hard to accept 7to1 at this distance. I think Havre de Grace may be the 2nd best bet you mentioned - but I feel half the gamble may just be hoping that her connections do opt for the Classic over the Ladies Classic. I don't need to say why its ridiculous that Dialed In and Animal Kingdom sit at the same odds. So yeah, Animal Kingdom is the bet.
It's been suggested more than a few times that this year's 3 year old class is weaker than usual, which seems to be confirmed by the relative lack of triple digit Beyers, slow winning times, etc of major races to date. But if we're going to harp on that all the time, it's also fair to emphasize the general lack of superstar talent in the handicap division. Here are the speed figures earned at a distance > 1 mile better than Shackleford's 104 (Preakness), which serves as the 3 year old high watermark: Havre de Grace (f) OP 15 Apr 1 1/16M 108 Switch (f) OP 15 Apr 1 1/16M 107 Win Willy OP 09 Apr 1 1/8M 107 Giant Oak GP 05 Feb 1 1/8M 105 Havre de Grace (f) OP 19 Mar 1 1/16M 105 Havre de Grace (if she gets 10f) is a legitimate contender; Switch has distance limitations; Win Willy, to me, is a cut below; and Giant Oak has been off form since winning the Donn in early February. Twirling Candy, First Dude, etc. are talented individuals who seem to fit with these, but have yet to earn a BSF in 2011 at 9 furlongs or greater that confirms that. 40-1 on Shackleford is great value at this point....proven at a classic distance, 104 Beyer to back it up, experience over CD main track, still room for improvement.
Crown Of Thorns is the 2nd choice? Talk about an underlay. I think Animal Kingdom at 20-1 looks the best. Twirling Candy will not win the B.C. Classic.
Dialed In & Gio Ponti at 20-1??? AT 100-1, I might put $2 on each. A horse I don't see listed is Game On Dude, whom Bob Baffert calls "a true mile-and-a-quarter horse." I'd be very interested in him right now at 20-1 or higher.
I don't have her pedigree or PPs handy (so I don't know if she can go 10F), but I really wonder if Havre de Grace (who is undisputably the best female race horse in North America right now) has a better than 25:1 shot to win the Classic against the boys. The likely North American entries for the Classic are so bad right now that I'd be more interested in Havre de Grace (again, if she can get 10F) than many of the others (Haynesfield, Gio Ponti, and the other unimpressive handicap division colts). Her Beyers probably say no, but ... man I'm desperate for a good 10F horse for the Classic *laugh*
Tizway looks like a bargain at 25-1. Sidney's Candy could be a solid speedster. Not sure about the distance or surface, but he's an absolute speed freak. See any odds for him? I liked Rail Trip's return by the way. Don't know if he's a classic contender however. Thanks for posting again. I miss you on "Blinkers Off."
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