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Email
Despite rumors to the contrary, my recent absence had nothing to do over my personal outrage that Stephanie's Kitten received a lone vote for champion juvenile filly, denying My Miss Aurelia a deserving unanimous Eclipse.
I'm not ready for the rubber room just yet, not just yet, but I would love to hear an explanation for that one.
Actually, I've had terrible troubles with my right eye over the last ten days or so. After a battery of tests, it looks (terrible pun, I know) like I'm good to go for the fore-see-able future (the puns get cornea and cornea, okay, I'll quit while I'm behind).
This blog will be shorter than the normal week-opener as I want to get this past week's leading winning Beyers, as well as the upcoming week's HandiGambling pp's out to the public as quickly as possible.
I will get to all of your questions and comments early next week.
***
Here are the top 25 Winning Beyer Speed Figures from last week's racing action (1/9/12 - 1/15/12):
1. JACKSON BEND - 101 - Hal's Hope Stakes (G3) - 1 Mile - Gulfstream
1. RENEESGOTZIP - 101 - Santa Ynez Stakes (G2) - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Santa Anita
3. SAN PABLO - 98 - Shots Are Ringing Stakes - 1 Mile 70 Yards (Inner Track) - Aqueduct
4. TAPIZAR - 97 - San Fernando Stakes (G2) - 1 1/16 Miles - Santa Anita
4. THIS ONES FOR PHIL - 97 - OC 50k/N2X - 6 Furlongs (Inner Track) - Aqueduct
6. PRIVATE JET (Arg) - 96 - Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - Gulfstream
6. SILVER MEDALLION - 96 - Ft. Lauderdale Stakes (G3) - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Gulfstream
8. FORDANGSHORE - 95 - OC 40k/C -N - 7 Furlongs - Laurel
8. JOAN'S CHOICE - 95 - Hcp 25000s - 1 Mile 70 Yards (Inner Track) - Aqueduct
8. LOU'S ANGEL - 95 - Wishing Well Stakes - 6 Furlongs (Polytrack) - Turfway
8. SOARING STOCKS - 95 - Alw 50200N1X - 6 Furlongs - Gulfstream
8. SWISS TART - 95 - Alw 40000s - 6 Furlongs - Santa Anita
8. THIRTYFIRSTSTREET - 95 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 1/16 Miles - Santa Anita
14. AGAVE KISS - 94 - Ruthless Stakes - 6 Furlongs (Inner Track) - Aqueduct
14. IZZY RULES - 94 - OC 40k/N1X - 6 Furlongs - Santa Anita
16. WON GREAT CLASSIC - 93 - Clm c-10000B - 6 Furlongs (Inner Track) - Aqueduct
17. CHEROKEE QUEEN - 92 - Marie G. Krantz Memorial Handicap - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Fair Grounds
17. ELLAFITZ - 92 - Paseana Handicap - 1 1/16 Miles - Santa Anita
17. OPENING MOVE - 92 - Alw 62000N1X - 6 Furlongs (Inner Track) - Aqueduct
20. DERIVE - 91 - Clm 12500(16-10.5) - 6 Furlongs - Turf Paradise
20. REGAL STRIKE - 91 - Clm 30000(30-25)N2L - 6 Furlongs (Inner Track) - Aqueduct
20. SLIM SHADEY (GB) - 91 - OC 40k/N1X -N - 1 1/4 Miles (Turf) - Santa Anita
23. MY CUZ C J - 90 - OC 32k/N3X -N - 6 Furlongs - Laurel
23. OUTTA TUNE - 90 - Alw 10000s - 6 Furlongs - Oaklawn
23. WASH PARK - 90 - OC 17k/N1X -N - 6 Furlongs - Fair Grounds
*The lifetime past performances for both JACKSONBEND and RENEESGOTZIP are available at the bottom of this blog post.
*WON GREAT CLASSIC was claimed for $10,000 by trainer Chris Englehart from David Jacobson.
***
I'm really looking forward to the second FormBlog convention at Gulfstream Park on March 9-11. It's always great to meet and interact with some of the wonderful FormBloggers, spend a few days at the track with them to pick their brains (and hopefully learn a thing or two), and have some excellent food (I pay the tab, or else).
Laura is graciously hosting the convention and you can find more information on her excellent website at www.ironmaidensthoroughbreds.com
***
Congrats to NellyGCM for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling exercise. Let's go with Friday's eighth race at Santa Anita for this week's event.
PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.
Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.
Please post your plays and analysis to the blog.
Please separate the play from the analysis and label the play "HG" with the program numbers (instead of the horse's name) for easier scoring.
In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per person please.
I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
Best of luck to all.
I'll be back Friday for the HG analysis and Saturday for some weekend spot plays.
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| HGSA.pdf | 149.42 KB |
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HG
#3 Take No Prisoners
Class, Works and Distance makes this one stand out. The rest are running for minor awards.
#6 Midnight Con
Has a nice closing kick and has worked well over the track. Figures to sit a perfect trip. Main danger.
#9 I Feel Free
If Victor can avoid losing too much ground around the 1st turn will make his presence felt.
Wager:
$100 Tri: 3/ 6/ 9 $100
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Curt V , the Dogman doesn't like me because I used two of his Mom's most famous quotes against his argument once. He was not amused and round filed it. He's a one way street. IMO as a handicapper or blogmaster he doesn't make a carbunkle on LSD's behind, buttZ... thats just my opinion.
Annie , maybe those yo-yos that think horses have constitutional rights decend from tailess apes,buttZ... my ancestors were men/women. :-) Darwin died from festering boils just like Marx & Herrod. Coincidence ? I think not. :-)
Ask yourself how the giraffe evolved the ability to cut the flow of blood to its head when leaning down to get a drink ? If it wasn't designed that way from the start the first giraffes heads would have exploded leaving no more giraffes to supposedly evolve. I'm not looking to tear any monkey brains out there apart in an evolution argument ,buttZ... believe me I can do it . LOL.
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hey folks - first try at this
Going to go against the probable fav. #3 - drop to claiming - flashed speed in last - nice work since but is on the stretch out going a mile.
I like the #6 - hustled last - drops again - and speed #'s are improving
#8 comes back to claiming ranks - last out was tough group in a good time - blinks back on
Like the #9 off nice pressing try and the #5 as a longshot - could improve this spot
Bet: $5.00 tri - #6 & #8 /w/ 3-6-8 /w/ 3-5-6-8-9 = $80.00
$10.00 to Win #6 & #8 =$20.00
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HG
Midnight Con: Expect a big race on the drop for hot Mullins barn and like the workouts on SA dirt.
Stormy Bob: Mitchell is phenomenal with 2nd start maidens and Garcia ends up here. Sometimes you just bet Mitchell because it's Mitchell.
Take No Prisoners: Obvious contender but no value. Don't like to see a Baffert go straight to the bottom rung after one race--esp. when this horse has turf breeding. The Baffert stats on MSW to MCL 2nd out are not good.
The Bet: $100 Exacta 6-10
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HG267 ?>I think..@SA,
Me believem' the #1, Skip Tony is sitting on a front running extrvaganZa........just in case I'm using him w/the #6, Midnight Con, the drop down Slewster & the #8, War Politics, another dropper.......
$25 Exacta Box> #1 with/#6 & #8=$100.00.........
It's a pleasure doing business w/a reputable firm....Signore' Dan Illman........
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HG SA Fri
My wager
$50 Tri 10/3/8,9
Good 1st time start for #10 Stormy Bob last out and just look at those trainer stats and JT stats. Outside post a blessing for him. should not encounter trouble getting started. Only wish this race was 1-1/16. but will still stick with him on top.
#3 Take no prisoners is perhaps the best of the sprinters stretching out which should be preferred for him. The drop in class should put him close.
Trainer O'Neil has 2 two in here. #9 I Feel Free appears to be at the right class level but why is he not running for $28000 ? Did Espinoza put on weight over the New Years ?
Good luck to all
Ron B
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Headline from today's form:
"Maker rises to forefront with Derby contender Hansen"
How many of you believe that this "dual qualifier" (in Dosage terms) is likely to stay 10 furlongs? And if so, on what basis do you make the claim?
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jim maloney,
In the twilight of her racing career, SHARKS JAWS (25-11-1-3 $124,985) won the Conniver Handicap at Bowie, Valley Forge Handicap and Alma North Handicap at Garden State. She also placed third in the Next Move Handicap (G-3) at Aqueduct. She was traned by the infamous King Leatherbury.
As a broodmare, Sharks Jaws (Mitey Prince - Viking Vixen, by Viking Spirit) was the best foal produced by her unraced dam. Accordingly, Sharks Jaws went on to be the best producer in her distaff line in about four generations. In total, she bore five foals, four raced, and three winners, two of whom were stakes winners. Sharks Jaws gelded son Raja's Shark (by Raja Baba) was the most accomplished of the two. He was a veteran of 45 races with an excellent 13-11-11 ($673,977) record. A multiple stakes winning sprinter who stretched his speed to a mile, his victories included The Sports Page Handicap, Jamaica Handicap and Coaltown Stakes, all G-3 events. Raja's Shark also placed in the G-1 Wood Memorial and Vosburgh Stakes.
Sharks Jaws' daughter With A Wink (by Clever Trick) compiled a 20-6-0-4 $233,881 race record. As a three year old, With A Wink captured the Dogwood Stakes and at four, earned a victory in the Delaware Handicap (G-2). With A Wink carried on her dam's legacy in producing stakes winners. She bore nine foals, seven runners, five winners and three stakes winners. Her son Up Like Thunder (by War Chant) captured the Bertram F. Bongard Stakes. With A Wink's daughters the full sisters Jenna Jenna and Win With A Wink (by Dixieland Band) both won the Joseph A. Gimma Stakes. Jenna Jenna went on to win the Iroquois, and Bay Meadows Dash Handicaps and placed in two other stakes. Win With A Wink was in Bill Mott's barn. I remember her well, having hot walked her a time or two. She was a pleasant filly to be around, but she really didn't progress into her three year old season.
Blink Twice, a full sister to Jenna Jenna and Win With A Wink, bore a stakes placed filly, Capricious (by Tiznow). Ngan Gung, a full sister to Raja's Shark, bore a stakes placed runner, Bocamis (by Miswaki) who went on to give us the stakes winner Boca Flyer (by El Prado) and stakes placed Rutledge Lion (by Lion Hearted).
Hope this helps,
Laura
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Ah, Bernard Downes
Glad you saw the post..I was wondering where you have been.
I enjoyed it. Any 90 year old man reminiscing about his days, always grabs my heart.
Hope the workout comments from everyone have been helpful.
Cheers.
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Annie:
"Then we'll have the two hairiest members of FormBlog going head to head in a MDSP; CHALKY, our resident weasel, and HAIRY (I presume there's a reason for the moniker). :) Their Castaway and Holy Candy will try to break their maiden. Hmm, maybe an MKB exacta?"
You presumed correctly. Unfortunately I won't be able to watch the race live on HRTV, I'll be at an pigging out oyster feed(fortunately). Hopefully Holy Candy will run well although I not sure of his derby hopes. As for the moniker, when I was a young lad in the '70's, maybe 10 years old or so, I had long hair & my neighbor friends' older brother nicknamed my Harry (hairy). So on this & one other forum, I go by Hairy. I haven't had long hair since about 1983.
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dontwannaknow,
I suggest you stick with Checkers....you can cheat at that game..But the $25 Exacta Box as written totals $100.00..........Who's ROFLMAO now ?
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HandiGambling 267 (?)
I will take a chance with Dan's free C-note:
I like very little in this race and this is the reason I rarely play maiden races. There are few (no) standouts so I'll have to play angles. Here goes nothing:
The #3 is Baffert and looks like the drop will be sufficient to move this Giant's Causeway way up.
The #6 will be fast enough and is already competitve enough to keep going on the stretchout.
The remaining horses all have huge question marks (?????????) around them.
I rate the #'s 2,3,10 as the same with little chance to do anything but run 4th in the superfecta.
The #9 is scratched... oh, so are all the outside horses and these were the value horses for me.
This is no fun... so here goes something real easy and wasteful.
$1.00 Superfecta
a.) 3, 6 w/ 3,6, w/2,5,7,8,10 w/2,5,8 = $24.00
b.) repeat (a.) 3 times = $72.00 ($96.00)
c.) $1.00 superfecta 3 w 8 w/ 6 w/2,5,7 = $3.00 ($99.00)
Thanks...here goes nothing
d.) $.50 superfecta 6 w/ 8 w/3 w/5,7 = $1.00 ($100.00)
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HGSA
I love maiden races but this one does not many of my favorite angles. Oh well, let’s give it a go.
1) Skip Tony – basically the name says it all. Two poor efforts and no drop. Two changes today: blinkers off, apprentice on. I am skipping “Tony” in this one. Probably could use turf up state or Turf Paradise.
2) At Last a Wildcat – nothing to see here either. Two dirt starts beaten 54L.
3) Take No Prisoners – in debut he pressed but tired late. Not bad effort but with Baffert the debut is usually explosive... certainly not 49 on BSF. That was on synthetic while today is dirt. Nakatani on for Baffert is another twist. Working well but may have been pressured in AM and function of Bob's walkie talkie. If the trainer name was not Baffert I could see it. Passing all Bob’s second time starters at low odds that run 49’s in debut without major trouble lines.
4) Juan’s Twin – Has early lick but no stick. Cannot see this one being around late.
5) Victoriasugrdaddy – First two starts were not bad hitting board. Last on at HOL was a minor regression. Rosario on helps. Only under if at all.
6) Midnight Con – never seen dirt in PM. Like sire, improved speed, dirt works, and drop. Major player. Should be there at end.
7) Already There – another first dirt. Quiet American on turf is a "no go" so I line out the SA downhill experiment. Like drop to $30,000 but not sure how much a real drop this is since this not Cal breds. Miller hits well with MSW to CLM (50%). Connections good. I expect a live horse here.
8) War Politics – having a day job sure saved me some dough on 11-04-11. War Front out of Arch first turf MSW at 43-1. I will take that all day long win or lose. Speed and fade in last. If I had to buy one of these for $30,000 this would be my choice. However, can he win today on dirt? Going back to blinkers on probably is meaningless. O’Neill is still searching and now goes to one of the world’s best jocks now. I still would give this one more shots on turf but he is definitely worth look at value. However, I view turf and dirt usually as mutually exclusive propositions. Would have to use in horizontals at ML 6-1 not so much in vertical.
9) I Feel Free – it is great to be an American!! Exotic filler for vertical players. Should not win but can share minor under.
10) Stormy Bob - $2,000 yearling. Must be crooked but does not mean he can’t run well for a while. Start two is big angle for Mitchell. I love off slow angle at inflated odds next out. Made up 7L after bad start. Staying at $30,000 makes sense due to low purchase price. Biggest negative to me is outside post at one mile. Has too cost him several lengths and probably was not 2-3L best in here. If he was inside I would select without hesitation, outside he moves to just a use. In Pick 3 or 4 I would be using due to ML value.
Cannot win – 1-2-4; Pretenders – 3-5-9; Contenders – 6-7-10; Wild Card - 8
HG Play - $25 Exacta 6-10 over 6-10-7
Great racing to all!
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SR Vegas,
Nice story about the Queen and the 1951 Cesarewitch (although for factual purposes your elderly correspondent probably confused Doncaster racecourse with Newmarket, the home of the race).
The story has a ring of truth. The Queen has always been fanatical about horseracing, although I have never heard of her being associated with betting. Perhaps she was more carefree in those long ago days.
blackseabass,
I take it your reference to evolution was another one of your little jokes? It has to be.
You are not one of those religous fundamentalists are you? Surely not a Creationist?
Don't knock Darwin and don't worry over-much about his death; nor drinking giraffes; because like it or lump it, your ultimate ancestors were not man or woman. Neither were mine.
Best Regards - Bernard Downes
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HGSA
$50 Tri 8/5-10
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HG SA
Tough to debut at a route so Stormy Bob was up against it from the onset. Ran a bit at the end after a slow start. Mitchell is money with second time starters, so I’ll use this one on top. Take No Prisoners debuted at 5/2 odds in a short field and he did not run all that poorly. Seems a bit early to drop into claiming, but this horse has a big shot the drop down unless he is damaged goods.
$100 EX 10/3
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HG contest.....$100 straight tri......9/10/8
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Curt V
Steve Crist is a really nice guy. Gracious when approached on the street ( Saratoga with his wife in a boutique store) or at the NHC here in LV. Always has a few minutes to talk, listen, and take a picture. Trust me, Chalky and TBTA ...we have some really charming ones from last year.. and previous years with our Formblog qualifiers.
I think he favors any cute , furry, four legged critter . Chalk Eating Weasels included :)
But, Dan our Man is simply the BEST when interacting with his formblog family. Arlington Park was a blast. And I am sure with anyone, anywhere he goes when he gets the chance to get out of the office . Can we say 'Road trip' ! ..
... Dan wishing you will come to the NHC one day ....sigh :)
But have fun at Gulfstream Park come March with Laura and the gang .
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HG
$10 super 5/3,6/1,2,3,6,10
$10 super 5/3/6/2
$10 super 5/6/3/2
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HG
Interesting race with the Baffert dropdown against Mullins' maiden, who has also faced much better.
I expect an improved effort from Victoriasurgraddy with the switch to Rosario.
$40 Win - #5
$10 Boxed Tri - #'s 3, 5, 6
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This week's handigambling exercise is rather unique. How many times have you seen an also eligible list with four horses and all of them sporting single digit odds? So I think it a wise thing to wait to see the scratches thus this late submission.
#8 War Politics, is dropping out of straight maidens and has the best Tomlinson DIST fig. I really like these ratings for the turf and they can be of value in these type of races too. Doug O'Neil employs Raffy that is a huge step up from Krigger.
#3 Take No Prisoners, another dropper from straight maidens and from the Baffert barn. Just a word about Bob Baffert. A couple of years ago I heard Chris McCarron hint around that Baffert was a jerk. I have always liked Chris and more or less felt "well if Chris said so it must be true; Bob is just BS self promoter." In October we were headed back to the grandstand after checking out the horses at the paddock and I noticed Baffert was right behind us. I politely asked if he would not mind if I took his picture with my wife and father. Both are huge Baffert fans. He didn't hesitate; he put his arm around my wife and my father stood on the other side of Baffert and I snapped a quick one. It might have taken thirty seconds. Hey, maybe he didn't get along with McCarron so well but I sure think a lot more of him now.
#6 Midnight Con, Jeff Mullins just like the above two trainers finds an easier bunch for his horse to face today but the drop isn't nearly as steep. This horse does have the best last race Beyer.
Nothing really clever here just isolating on some horses that really figure.
HG 26something
$50 Trifecta
3,8/ 3,8/ 6
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HGSA race 8
$5 tri box 8,7,6 $30
$ 10 tri key 8 with 7,6 $20
$ 25 ex key 8 with 7,6 $50
#8 looks ready to take them all the way, blinkers back on, toss last
#7 could be the sleeper with 1st time dirt
#6 can't argue with form here, also 1st time dirt
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PGM
Oh, you shameless hussy ! LOL
Congrats on reviving your "Picks and Ponderings"...always enjoyed them & I'll check you out :)
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Hg.
$100.00 exacta 3-6.
Good luck to all.
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jimi
I'm glad that condition book is comming in handy!...BTW did you notice that all the AE
#11 Flying Marine
#12 Teancum
#13 Cheezy Breezy
#14 Mr Padre
(that did not draw in) and the #9 Feel So Free, #10 Stormy Bob all came out of the same race on Dec 30th ? Makes sense now. A 30K starter allowance is race #1 on this same card. It's 1M instead of 1 1/16 M ...that is where Arathorn is running.
-------------------------
Curt V
I'm glad we see this the same way regarding Bernardini. I'll take your word for having pointed it out while the "Queen" was still running. My archive skills are not THAT good ...LOL!
BSB, Curt V
Curious as to what your cryptic messages were ( SMILE) I went over to the Jay H Blog site.
& While looking at some older threads found this 'nugget'.
Bernard Downes
Speaking of "Queens"...This caught my eye.
(Dan, I hope it's okay to post it here .)
Inpart, Jay Hoveday is talking about opening Day at Santa Anita and John Shear:
..."Among the opening day crowd was John Shear, 90 years young and happy to be back to work as a paddock guard. This was the same fellow who put himself between a child and a runaway horse in the paddock last March and paid for it with a broken pelvis, among other painful things. Shear does not make a big deal of it, so we won't either (actually, we do). Rather, how about this tale from Shear's colorful youth on horseback in England:
"I was working for a trainer named Peter Thrale, and we were getting Three Cheers ready for the 1951 Cesarewitch Handicap, which was going to be run that year over two and a quarter miles at Doncaster. He was being held at 13-2. The boss wanted to get a good trial into him at the distance and over ground similar to Doncaster, so we took him to the Royal Course at Windsor. I was at the back of the course on a rabbit, ready to tie in for the second mile and lead Three Cheers by five lengths or so, when two young women rode up."
Turns out it was just a couple of princesses, Elizabeth and Margaret, down from Windsor Castle, out for a horseback jaunt. Elizabeth, the older of the two, would not be Queen for another year.
"She asked if we had permission to use the course, and I said we did, and what we were doing there," Shear continued. "She said, 'Really? Is he a bet?' I told her he was as far as I was concerned. Then I had to go on. He went on and won the Cesarwitch, and I always hoped she bet. If she did she kept mum about it, because we got our price."
-------------------------
Cheers!
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HGSA
$100 ex 10/6
gl
thx Dan
thx 10C
VQ
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HGSA Revised
Rats !
scratch of the #9 I Feel Free, who I really liked, and the many combos and prior selections posted and already taken with the #10 Stormy Bob the other one I had...well, ummm....
Tencent, I'm just going to put Dans $$ back in my pocket and wait until next week.
Good Luck !
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BSB..
You misunderstand me, You and Curts posts on the last thread & here were cyptic to me, as I wasn't following what you two were talking about.
It's why I went over to the JH side and read the article/posts. I understood then what you and Curt were talking about.
But while there, did find other links to read.
I'm more inclined to comment here or at B Livingston site, rather than the 'others'
No harm no foul.
as VQ says
Peace :)
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HGSA
Not to use on top:
1-Skip Tony appears too slow to live for low % connections. Negative rider change.
4-Juan’s Twin has low % trainer. Rider wins at 20% in 2011 and, until 1/19 was struggling here.
7-Already there has Steiner up and 9% is just below allowable level for top spot wager.
Contenders for top spot:
3-Take No Prisoners drops from Md Sp Wt and shows good works for top connections.
5-Victoriaasugrdaddy-is unpronounceable, but rates a shot based on positive rider change.
6-Midnight Con has no dirt starts, but has been working OK on dirt. 9% rider does not inspire.
8-War Politics gets a positive rider change and has the best dirt Beyer. Also drops from Md Sp Wt.
10-Stormy Bob has 32% trainer with big R.O.I numbers for this type race. Modest gain in debut.
This contest can be won by projecting improvement of the 5 for a trainer looking to make a killing.
HGSA Wager:
$50 to win on #5
$10 Exactas #5 over 3, 6, 10
$20 Exacta #5 over 8
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HG
I like Baffert off the drop and I like two horses underneath him. Victoriasugrdaddy, a positive jockey switch and War Politics, who is dropping back after one off the claim, especially after the scratch of the better part of the O'Neill runner.
40 ex 3/5,8
10 triple 3/5,8/5.8
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DATELINE ILLINOIS
PETA WANTS HIGHWAY MEMORIALS TO COWS KILLED IN WRECKS
The animal rights group wants Illinois to install highway signs in memory of cattle that died when trucks hauling them flipped in two separate incidents.
The request likely will be denied as only relatives of loved ones killed in highway crashes can request memorials. PETA wants the Illinois Department Of Transportation ( IDOT ) to disregard that requirement.
PETA campaign coordinator Tracy Patton of Arlington Heights Il. wrote, "because there are no surviving family members for animals in the meat trade, we ask that you waive this requirement of the program and allow concerned Illinois citizens like me to apply in lieu of a relative."
Couldn't make this stuff up.....These are the folks that have drawn a bead on horse racing..........SCARY
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HG REVISED
$50.00 TRIS 8-5-6 and 8-6-5
GL
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Hi Laura,
I agree with most of your good, fairly thorough analysis. The one important aspect that I'd say you missed, one that further buttresses the argument that Hansen will not stay 10 furlongs, is running style.
He is a head-strong, free-runner, and the likelihood of him being taught to relax off the pace at this stage is obviously remote. Also, horses with as much raw, natural speed as Hansen rarely stay much beyond a mile. This is American dirt racing, though, and, especially if left unchallenged on an easy lead, a speed-favoring track could allow him to outrun his pedigree in a given race. Having said that, even those favorable conditions are unlikely to allow him to win the Derby.
Finally, though I haven't looked at him close up, Hansen gives me the impression of being broader across the chest and more muscular than many of the Tapits. That would, of course, denote more speed than stamina. Take a look at this photo:
http://www.horseadoption.com/wp-content/uploads/KCJuv11-Hansen.jpg
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HG:
This race looks tailor-made for big exotics. All one has to do is beat the likely overbet Baffert entry.
My bet:
$1 SPRs:
1/5,6,78/5,6,7,8/7,8,9,10 $24
5,6,7,8/1/5,6,7,8/7,8,9,10
5,6,7,8/5,6,7,8/1/7,8,9,10
7,8,9,10/5,6,7,8/5,6,7,8/1
And $4 WIN on 1
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HG Revision Due To Scratch
Wager:
$100 Tri: 3/ 6/10 $100
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Tinky,
I did a pedigree profile of Hanson last September after he won the Kentucky Cup Juvenile Stakes. It's available in it's entirety here: http://www.ironmaidensthoroughbreds.com/Articles.html
Here's an excerpt discussing Hanson's ability:
HANSEN (Tapit - Stormy Sunday, by Sir Cat) so far is emulating his sire Tapit on the racetrack. Tapit was a lightly raced colt, competing only six times and wining half of his starts. At two, he won his maiden by 7 ¾ lengths and the Grade 3 Laurel Futurity by 4 ¾ lengths. As a three year old, the son of Pulpit was sent directly into the Florida Derby (G-1) without benefit of a prep race. He finished a well-beaten sixth behind Friends Lake. In his following start, Tapit came from last to win the Wood Memorial by a thrilling ½ a length. Entering the Kentucky Derby with only two prep races under his girth, Tapit finished a non-threatening ninth behind the popular favorite, Smarty Jones. Rested after the Kentucky Derby, Tapit made his sixth and final career start in the Pennsylvania Derby (G-2). He bobbled at the start, sat three lengths behind the leaders, but tired to finish ninth. Although he was sound, Tapit was retired a month later.
Tapit was off to a tremendous start at stud when he sired two Champions right off the bat. Stardom Bound, a daughter from Tapit’s first crop, earned Juvenile Filly Championship honors in 2006 after earning wins in five consecutive Grade 1 events, including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Tapit’s son As De Trebol earned honors as Spain’s Champion Juvenile in the same year. Currently, Tapit is one of the top ranked third crop sires. His two year old’s lifetime win rate is an above average 19%.
Currently, Tapit is represented by three stakes winners at 1 1/4 miles over dirt, the top racemare Careless Jewel, G-2 winner Headache and a Japaneese Group 3 winner Testta Mata. Hansen and Careless Jewel have similar breeding, as both are by Tapit out of a Storm Cat sire line mare.
Hansen’s dam Stormy Sunday was also lightly raced. Making all four of her starts as a three year old, Stormy Sunday retired with a 4-3-0-1 $33,046 record. She didn’t earn any blacktype. As a broodmare, Stormy Sunday has produced only two foals of racing age. Hansen’s full brother Tapanna has made five starts, all in maiden races and ironically, won his maiden on the same day at Turfway where his younger brother Hansen recoded his runaway victory in the Kentucky Cup Juvenile. Hanson is the first blacktype winner in his female family in five generations.
Sir Cat, Hansen’s damsire, was a Grade 2/3 class runner. His best wins came in the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes and Appleton Handicap, both Grade 2 affairs contested at 1 1/16 miles. The son of Storm Cat also won three Grade 3 contests held at 1 1/8 miles. Although Sir Cat won three races over the dirt, including the Knickerbocker Handicap (G-3) over a sloppy track, the lion’s share of Sir Cat’s stakes victories came over the turf. Sir Cat stood at stud in the U.S. for seven years before transferring to Chile. As a broodmare sire, Sir Cat is represented by Santa Anita Oaks (G-1) heroine Crisp and four listed stakes winners. None of his daughter's offspring have won a stakes race going 1 1/8 miles or farther.
Taking a peak back at the second generation, Hansen's second damsire Highland Park was a precocious juvenile who included the Iroquois and Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes amongst his wins. Sent on the Triple Crown trail as a three year old, Highland Park won the Fountain of Youth Stakes contested that year at 1 1/16 miles, but was seventh in the Bluegrass Stakes and wound up 17th in the 1983 Kentucky Derby. Highland Park didn't do much as a sire or broodmare sire. His offspring were best up to 1 1/16 miles, but he did get a couple of stakes winners at 1 1/8 miles.
Hansen resembles his sire physically. He isn’t overly large or muscular, but will likely fill out as a three year old. Hansen’s gait shows good extension and he has a quick stride with fairly high knee action. He has the high cruising speed seen in top runners such as Smarty Jones, Big Brown and Barbaro. Whether Hansen has the class of these individuals remains to be seen. Distance wise, he might handle 1 1/8 miles, but is highly suspect past that distance, especially in top company.
Laura
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Somewhere on the blog someone referenced a link that Ned Daly provided about "whales and Beulah and rebates" but I cannot find it. Can anyone give me some help so I can read this?
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HG SA8
$2 spr 8/3,6,10/3,5,6,7,10/3,5,6,7,10. $72
$4 tri 8/3,6,10/3,6,10. $24
$2 spr 6,10/8/6,10/3 $4
Keying 8 off the drop, breeding and positive jock change.
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Hansen --- BSBFFF 3 . No BSBFFF 3 has won the derby at least since '70 . I wouldn't hold my breath on Hansen. He's probably not impossible to hit the super though. Paddy O was a BSB 3. He has a small chance in the Preakness based on history. Snow Chief & Tanks Prospect were 3's. He's not one I would spend to much time worrying about, buttZ...afterall what the heck do I know about the Derby ? :-)
SRVegas, nothing cryptic about it. Filthy rich stronach holes that want other people to take care of their discarded animals are not humane. Foundations are generally for the benifit of the people that run them, not for whatever the cause that is implied to the public. Its a sore spot for the Goatman & myself who let our actions regarding our own animals testify to our humanity. Its not more humane to let animals starve in a field than it is to can them. Just my opinion. :-)
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HG SA Fri
Due to the scratch of # 9 Please chang my wager to
$10 Tri 10/3/all = $70
$30 Tri 10/3/8
if any other late scratches just increase my 10/3/8 tri
Thanks
Ron B
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HG# 149 Santa Anita Race 8
.80 Superfecta 6--3.7.9--3.7.8.9.10--2.3.7.8.9.10 = $38.40
.60 Superfecta 3--6.7.9--6.7.8.9.10--2.6.7.8.9.10 = $28.80
.60 Superfecta 9--3.6.7--3.6.7.8.10--2.3.6.7.8.10 = $28.80
Total $96.00
Just using a little bit of everything. That's Handicapping!!
James Russell
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HG SA Fri
Due to the scratch of # 9 Please chang my wager to
$10 Tri 10/3/all = $70
$30 Tri 10/3/8
if any other late scratches just increase my 10/3/8 tri
Thanks
Ron B
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HG @ SA- Not a race I would play with my money- suspicious droper @ low odds, others that that have shown little or less
$12 tri 8 / 3, 7 / 2, 3, 6, 7, 10
$4 ex 8-2
Somebody will win, I guess
Theo
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Thanks Laura for Garden St. reference. Did love that place. Here is my selection for " I wish I had a map handicap". $4 tri box 3,5,6 and 9. $2 super 6-3-9-5. And that's it. edb
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HG
.80 cent superfecta's 6,8 / 6,8 / all /all
$5 exacta box 6,8
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Annie
Here is what I recall concerning the timing of placing our HG wagers. You are probably correct that there has been no OFFICIAL ruling as to when wagers may be posted. However, awhile back, myself and at least one other person posted wagers prior to Dan posting the PPs and Tencent politely requested that we wait until Dan had done so. So I think that is what folks are referring to. Ten cent, if I have that wrong please correct me.
Dick W
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HG
I love maiden claimers - especially where there are a few first time droppers and lightly raced horses. My favorite angles are second time starters and droppers who have shown something.
At first I was going to try and beat the obvious Baffert entrant with all tickets, but the 3 is well drawn, and showed enough in a MSW (despite drifting in stretch) to warrant being included on top of at least one ticket. Provided that the surface switch doesn't create a problem, he could be long gone off this huge drop and expected second time out improvement.
I really like the Miller (#7) and the Mitchell (#10) entrants as well, as a first time dropper and second time starter, respectively. The projected value is good as well.
The below does not take into account the possibility of AE's getting in - some of which would figure to be involved.
$2 TRI 3 WITH 7,10 WITH 1,5,6,7,8,9,10 ($24)
$2 TRI 7,10 WITH 3,7,10 WITH 1,3,5,6,7,8,9,10 ($48)
$1 SUPER 3,7,10 WITH 3,7,10 WITH 3,7,10 WITH 3,5,6,7,8,9,10 ($24)
$2 EX 7,10 WITH 3 ($4)
Total $100
NellyGCM
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HGSA
$100 win on #10 Stormy Bob..................................
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HG:
$50 tri
3/5,10/5,10
3- should improve off of debut
5 -should be closer to pace after bullet work and a debut 3rd going a mile at SA
10- Mitchell great with maidens in second start, with Garcia aboard look for him in the minor placings
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Dan, I am a big fan of the Beyer Pars, but do not know what is the appropriate adjustment for state bred races....does anyone have an adjustment they do for state bred races at Fair Grounds, Santa Anita and Aqueduct? Thanks! Steve at merciecas@hotmail.com
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Handigambling, week of Jan. 20 (Santa Anita MCL)
Wager: $100 exacta, 7 over 3
When trainer Peter Miller drops from Maiden Special Weights to Maiden Claimers, he's had some nice statistics. He's having a good SA winter meet, and thus this MSW --> MCL dropper gets the nod. #7 ALREADY THERE also gets first time dirt. Perhaps the new surface and being up for sale will wake him up.
Many SoCal races usually see Bob Baffert in the winners' circle, and he's represented with second time starter #3 TAKE NO PRISONERS. Another dropper from MSW company, this one faded in the stretch across town at Hollywood. However, he's worked solid with respect to the click and he can move forward in start two.
*******
And now a word from the shameless self promotion department. I've gained another place to distribute my blogging thoughts. In addition to WirePlayers, you'll also catch me at ChicagoNow (the blogging arm of Tribune Company). Set browsers to http://www.chicagonow.com/picks-ponderings-chicago-horse-racing/ as I've given rebirth to "Picks and Ponderings".
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Thursday notes.....
Welcome back Dan.. We only get one set of eyes, so we need to take care of them. I hope that you will be fine. We need your winning pick's over the next few month's heading to the KY Derby...
Jeff T.
Are you out of you F***ing mind!!! Do you think that that joke was funny?? I am not a big fan of domestic beat downs. It has happened to a family member of mine, and I almost was put away for life for the beating that I put on the scumbag that did it!!! You stepped over the line on this one pal... I think that Dan need's to put his foot down and maybe cut you off from posting here... It is his call, but that "joke" was way out of line!!!
Folks, I like a joke like anyone else, but let's get back to the topic at hand...
Picking winner's, talking horse's, angles, and other topic's about this game that brought us to this blog... Tell me if I am wrong??
Whackymacky Out!!!
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HG
$50 Exacta 69
$50 Exacta 76
It's all numbers man!
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Annie
i know u believe in the integrity of the contest
i watch these things closely and i don't believe 10c has *taken* a wager from some 1 who posted b4 Dan put up the PPs. certainly people have tried, but i believe 10c disregared it ( obv 10c can speak 4 himself ).
Dan
i thought u have made it clear in the past no wagering on HG until u put up the PPs.
imo, by doing it this way no 1 gets the jump on everybody else
this is yours/DRF's contest which is open 2 the *public* free of charge
as in any contest ( especially with a prize ) the rules need 2 b made clear 2 the formbloggers and/or ( combatants, warriors, soldiers of fortune ) and any *riftraff* who r trying 2 get something 4 nothing ( including your's truly )
VQ
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HG
I usually look at these multi-level droppers (3,6,7,8) with a jaundiced eye, (Dan, thanks for hanging tough and the use of the hall), both because of possible health issues and no value. However, after consulting the current and future condition books (thanks SR), the Jan 16 MdC$50 @1mile didn't go and there are no open $40 or $50 MdCs going long at least through Feb 5. So it's either here or a straight maiden, probably facing a vaunted MKB foe. The 7 has Calbred options so he's the odd horse out. Further reading of tea leaves "reveals" Baffert was pointing for that Jan 16 race (work pattern, Garcia taking call on #10). Add in the facts that the 6's 2nd was in a three horse field and the 8 has been at this level before and I end up with Peachtree Stable on top.
$50 Trifecta 3 / 6,8 /6,8
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Dan,
I am so glad you are doing better! Damaging your eyes from reading Past Performance small print is actually an urban legend. However, my mother once told me some other teenage activity of mine caused blindness...what was that again... :-)
HG SA MAIDEN CLAIMER
If I was handicapping this race next week for the NHC, my focus would start with #1 Skip Tony. This 2nd-start-since-gelded 3yo has flashed early speed in both of his prior race from the far outside and then faded in the first and folded in the last. On Friday, Skip Tony moves inside, loses the blinkers and gets bug-boy Eswan Flores. The son of Mizzen Mast should have the pedigree to handle two-turns. Could Flores get Skip Tony to the front on the rail and steal the race? At near his 20/1 ML odds, I'd take the chance he could...
WAGER:
$50WP #1
Good luck!!
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HGSA Entry:
$33 WIN - 5
$33 PLC - 5
$34 SHW - 5
Good luck to all!
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Although I felt delirious that you did not participate in last weeks HG, my feelings were that since I picked the race, you thought it stunk. But now I know it was because your vision was impaired. All is forgiven, I'll just have to try to not blink when you pick the winner this week.
Are the CAPTCHA getting harder to decipher or is it my vision?
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Gil
hg revisit
Thank you Annie for your responce regarding my MKB horse.
Also for the reasons stated before my hg bet is. Sorry Ten.
$50 ex 6/3*8. thank you and good luck all.
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HGSA
$50.00 Exacta Box 6/8
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HGSA-$30 exacta 5/3-9-10 $10 win #9 good luck to all
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HG @ SA
$50.00 ex/box: 7-8 = $100 ... CHAAZZ
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Annie & all,
The very simple reason that you must wait until the Sheriff posts the PPs to post an HG bet is that UNTIL Dan does so, IT IS NOT THE OFFICIAL HG RACE. :-)
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Meathead01
Nice job on the 9th at Gulfstream today. You nailed the winner and also had that 58 to 1 horse in 3rd which is exactly where he finished paying $11.00 plus to show ! I wasn't playing any races today, just checking results. Keep up the good work.
Dick W
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HGSA 1-20-12
Rhyme ah rhyme ah ding dong....and there they go.....
It's Juan's Twin going to the front.....Take No Prisoners is 2nd by a head....
and Okiesharp moving up from far back....
$1 Trifecta box 3, 4, 9, 10 = 24
$8 Exacta box 3, 4, 10 = 48
$1 Straight Superfecta 10, 4, 9, 3 = 4
$ 10 cent Superfecta 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 10 = 24
3, 4, 10
3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10
3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 10
And the winner is.....
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$100 to win on War Politics.....hoping O'neill wakes up and puts this horse on the turf!
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BSB,
Of cHorse I didn't see your update on Hovdey Dovdey's blog. What else is new ? Quite frankly we have been quite spoiled here. Dan basically lets us do our thing. This blog is a real blog. Within an allotment of parameters we seem to police ourselves quite well. Over there & most places one has to say almost everything w/ones index finger squarely put between their teeth...LoL..Kiss my butt, kiss the authors butt, I love you too....& all that other perfunctory bullsheeet that it encompasses..Another words enough to make one vomit...Lmao......
Who else to you know on the DRF that goes out of their way to actually meet the people on his blog ? Nobody Butts: Dan Illman...........If you ever get a chance to meet Dan in person you'll know exactly what I'm talking about. & no, Dan didn't pay me to say that. I have no intention of meeting that guy who pre-haircut resembled a Fair haired Frankenstein w/glasses ?????MW.....Not that anything changed w/the haircut..He hasn't let me back on since I questioned his credentials & his unrelenting sycophantic butt kissing..........
The Dogman I hear though is quite acceptable to meeting his{us} people..That is true....However, he told me not to bring anybody who talks about his dogs.......He loves me..Especially when I told him of my adoption record..His personal e-mails are really neat..He actually is a nice guy..Uh oh!! I guess you're out...Heeheehee.............
ROFLMAO..............
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50.00 tri 8/6-9/6-9
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Annie thanks for the heads up on my MKB horse EXFACTOR. The bad news is he may be a scrath due to a minor hind end leg injury. I hope for the best thanks for yourgood work on all the MKB horses: SWEDE
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HG:
$50 ex box 3,10. pretty obvious, I hope no has previously bet it.
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C, Meathead, Jeff T:
Thanks for sharing all your your thoughts on the Place All. 2 non-players, 1 player. All thoughts make sense. I agree with the fact that a 50-1 pays the same as a 3-5 if they both run 1-2 and you hit the rest. That is bothersome. I
Sounds like the bet has done well for Jeff T. I agree it is tough to find 8-9 horses who can be 1-2. I played $8 once and went 4-8, not even close. I try to counsel my friend who thinks bigger is always better. Verey card is different so I don't agree bigger is better. When it is chalky with a couple of upsets sprinkled in he has hit on his deep pocket tickets. Mostly a scenario over a few races when the even money wins and a 25-1 runs first or second wiping out some tickets.
Since I have not seen much written by the DRF crew or the bloggers I am assuming most whales don't plunge. More serious SoCal players are likely playing Pick 6, Pick 5, Pick 4's. So I assumed one positive is you might be facing less sophisticated players in this pool. My friend who makes up 1% of the total daily pool absolutely fits the unsophisticated player category. He takes the top house picks every race then sprinkles a couple of others and constructs it on a $200-$300 ticket.
That aspect of a potentially weaker handicapper pool intrigues me is I often choose the path of least resistance in other forms of gambling. For example, I try to find a poker table profile that seems conduciive to winning. I have no problem playing with rich frat boys, drunks, and grandmas. My goal is to simply find a table where I have the widest skill advantage. Of course when the rich frat boys, the intoxicated, and grandmas bust me it can be a bit more deflating. It happens occassionally but I am a good sport. It is a bit odd in that my horse racing handicapping style does not match my poker playing style. Quite different those two.
Thanks again for your responses!
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Jimi,
I saw the mention of Burg Berg, however I'm horsed out right now..If I come up w/a bomber I'll let you know. I just aint thinking horses right now. Butts:you said it was a drop in class. I'm not sure about that. He's going from a 75K Handicap to a 75K Stakes race all w/the same conditions. You let me know what you're doing. If I recall you hit both exactas in the races I put forth. Seems I got a fishcake & you got a Lobster.......LoL.....If I go Saturday, which I doubt right now, I'll chime in...Thanx for the notice though & keep them coming my man...I assure you I won't be horsed out come January 29th, when my 3 Slewsters take center stage......I mentioned Consortium back in the day.......I might just get 10-1.....Xcrossing my fingers.......
SR Vegas,
Bernardini ? You aint getting no argument there, from me Darling..Just ask Mikey the day I met Mickey the 1st time, when in the 2nd race I hit a 28-1 Bernardini Slewster 1st timer to complete the exacta. Mickey asked how..I simply said the works were strong & Bernardini was gonna be a Star w/the girls..I also posted here way back when, before Z retired{she was still running}, that Moss would pick Bernardini & her foal would break the record book....A Slewster is a horse from the Slewster..LoL..You're a top notch archiver, take a looksee...
Seattle Slew has the uncanny ability to move his traits along all bloodlines...I don't give a hoot what anybody else might say...Until the Slewster proves me wrong, I'll be Slewsterizing them...that means collecting at the window, not from Royalties......Lmao...
Jeff T.,
I myself don't believe you meant anything bad. & I'll go this far. I think the majority feels the same. Look, you apoligized. Move on...I think the only thing you're guilty of is poor judgement. Wrong topic, wrong locale. We have all said & relayed things in the past that we wish we hadn't said. I've done it. Anybody who says differently is a point blank Bullsheeter. I don't know how old you are or how young you are, butts:things take on new meaning when you make it to 50 something. Heehee........This incident should help you in the future, when we need to think things out before we speak...
If it means anything to you, I'll just be curt{pun intended}. I certainly accept your apology in the name of myself & formblog.......
Sincerely,
Curt
I had to do this...reCaptcha was: "from the bututor"..Can you believe that ? from the butt-tutor..That's me..Butts:
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HG:
$100 win #3
track switch, class drop, working well, Bob is funny
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DAN LOVE YOUR BLOG. IN THE MID TO LATE 1970s GLEN HILD TRAINED A FILLY NAMED SHARKS JAWS ON THE EAST COAST. SHE WAS INVOLVED IN A MIX-UP AND THE WRONG HORSE RAN IN A RACE BECAUSE THE GROOM SWITCHED STALLS OF WHILE TAKING HORSES OFF THE HOTWALKING MACHINE AT KEYSTONE RACETRACK. BOTH HORSES LOOKED SIMILAR AND NEITHER HAD A LIP TATOO.SHARKS JAWS WENT ON TO BE A STAKES WINNER AND I THINK SHE PRODUCED A NICE RUNNER AS A BROODMARE, BUT I CAN'T REMEMBER ITS NAME. CAN YOU HELP ME OUT. THANKS JIM M.
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HG:
It seems as though this race is the 3's to lose. You can't ignore Bejarano on the 8 and the 6 has the best numbers in the race. Normally, I don't like to play chalk in a maiden claimer but one of these three should win and I'll put longshots underneath.
$20 ex 3/6-8 $40
$5 ex 6-8/3 $10
$4 tri 3/all/8 $32
$2 tri 3/6/all $16
$2 win 3 $2
Total $100
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HGSA
Here's the short of it. I expect the 3 and 6 to be flying out on the front end. One will carry their speed and the other will fade, leaning more toward the 6 to accomplish this, which will leave the 9 and 10 to pick up the pieces.
Plays:
$8 Ex 6/9,10=$16
$8 Ex 9,10/6=$16
$2 Ex 3/9,10=$4
$2 Ex 9,10/3=$4
$10 Tri Key 6/9,10=$20
$10 Tri 9,10/6/9,10=$20
$3 Tri Key 3/9,10=$6
$3 Tri 9,10/3/9,10=$6
$1 Super 3,6/9,10/9,10/3,6=$4
$1 Super 9,10/3,6/9,10/3,6=$4
Total=$100
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$50 Exacta box 3/8
I like Doug O'Neil's 8 going long for the second time. He's also dropping from MSW to McL. Last out 67 Beyer puts him above par for most of these. I like Baffert's 3 because of the stretch out. Appears to be bread (Giant's Causeway out of a Pulpit mare) for longer than the sprint he got first time out. Plus MSW to McL. Most of these have had an oppotunity to get the job done at this level and haven't. I realize the 8 has been in the McL ranks but not since the claim to the O'Neill barn. 3/8, let it roll...
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HG SA Maidens
I'm going for the O'Neill exacta:
$100 exacta 8,9
Good luck to all !
Dick W
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HGSA
Mdn claimers, Nelly GCM nice race!
Ok, No PGH in here...Check !
#9 Fly So Free ML 4-1
I see Arathorn is not here (runs in race #1 on the same card) and Mr Padre scratched.
I think Fly So Free sits off the pace , and gets up for the win. Besides, I like Old Toppers.
#10 Stormy Bob ML 6-1
Will add because his trainer stats are so excellent with these, & look for a progression in his BSF.
Besides I have a girlfriend with a dog named Bob :)
HG Wager:
$50 EX Box 9-10 = $100
Thanks Dan & 10C
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the reason that hg wagers shouldn't be excepted prior to Dan posting the PP is simple in my view.
*The Integrity Of The Contest*
no need 4 me 2 explain what with all the smart people that we have on this blog
" i am so glad you are doing better! ( me 2 Dan ) damaging your eyes from reading Past Performance small print is actually urban legend. however, my mother once told me some other *teenage activity* of mine caused Blindess...what was that again."
lol
i wont ask how your mother found out about that activity, but b assured, the *blindess thing* is still being taught in our religious schools across america. at least thats what my Jewish&Gentile friends tell me.
remember the nursery rhyme *3 blind mice*
let the above b a lesson 2 every 1 on formblog ( men&woman, boys&girls ) who still practice that ancient art.
VQ
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Whackmackey... please refer to the last topic for my apology.
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HG
All the AE have been scratched.
#11 Flying Marine
#12 Teancum
#13 Cheezy Breezy
#14 Mr Padre
Rats ...back later with a wager and thoughts.
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MKB Workouts:
-------------
1/10/12 This one just showed up today ..
Camden - turf /good
Every So Lucky - 5F 1:02.00 Breezing -- Dale
..since this was not one of the 'regular training tracks' that I usually see...I looked it up.
http://www.camdentrainingcenter.com/html/clients.html
Dale...sounds like your MKB is in good hands, just like you :)
-----------
1/17/12
Payson Park - dirt/fast
Forward March - 3F 0:37.20 Breezing - Annie / IMS
Hollywood Park - all weather/ fast
Holy Candy - 5F 1:01.20 Handily - Hairy
B-L-I-N-G-O- 4F 0:47.20 Handily - Dan Illman...sorry , couldn't resist, BUT 2nd best that day!
Santa Anita - dirt/fast
Castaway - 4F 0:45.60 Handily - Chalky / IMS ..A Bullet! & a SQUEAL...oh Chalky, be quiet !
Rousing Sermon - 6F 1:14.80 Handily - Anderson
------------
1/18/12
Santa Anita - dirt/fast
Drill - 4F 0:46.80 Handily - Virgin Queen ....A Bullet !
Unbridled's Note - 5F 1:00.80 Handily - BigEasyBigChok
Hollywood Park - all weather/ fast (gate work)
Empire Way - 6F 1:14.00 Handily - yogi
Fairgrounds - dirt/fast
Sir Bond - 4F 0:49.80 Breezing - Brutus4633
Gulfstream Park - dirt/fast
King Kid - 5F 1:01.80 Breezing - Stephen Taylor
Palm Meadows - dirt/fast
Our Entourage - 4F 0:49.38 Breezing - SR Vegas / IMS
Union Rags - 4F 0:49.63 Breezing - Laura Lawduck
Take Charge Indy - 6F 1:14.73 Breezing - Whackymacky
-----------------------
MKB Entries:
Exfactor - Swede
The 175K Lecomte Stakes 1M 70 yds at the Fair Grounds on Saturday.
http://www.drf.com/race-entries/FG/USA/2012-01-21/D/11
Cozzetti - Calvin Carter
100K Kitten Joy stakes 1 1/16M Turf at Gulfstream Park on Saturday.
http://www.drf.com/race-entries/GP/USA/2012-01-21/D/10
Castaway - Chalky ...ummm, cheers!
Holy Candy - Hairy
head to head in a 1/16 M 56K MSW on Saturday at SA
http://www.drf.com/race-entries/SA/USA/2012-01-21/D/6
Good Luck !
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TurfRuler
"Are the CAPTCHA getting harder to decipher or is it my vision? "
...I don't think it is your vision. CAPTCHA is getting crafty :)
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HGSA
$50 Exacta Box 2-9
1. Like the 2's J/T number and recent bullet.
2. Like the 9's ITM %. Might be ready to score with these
3. Nobody else seems to give the 2 a chance
4. For me, maiden races are a dartboard choice. Might as
well swing for the fences.
And lastly, the 2 is a 'Cat' horse which is a definitely plus for me!
Good Luck!
Capt. Ron
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HG:
$100 Win #3
---
I'll take the short-priced #3 in this spot. I never like backing fading sprinters, even if they are turning back in distance. That's my own personal bias. Horses this young are wildly unpredictable, however. There has been a plethora of encouraging workouts and gets a switch to the lightning fast Santa Anita main track. Giant's Causeway out of a Pulpit mare says a mile should be just fine. Makes the biggest class drop in horse racing and should give a little more in the stretch this time around. Still think he is up against some solid horses, have to put his head more in the game.
I wouldn't argue with anyone going a different direction on this one, especially with the M/L on this guy.
Good luck, everyone.
-Tom P.
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Curt V
I need to ask you a, ummm...Slew question ( from the previous thread).
.."With that Slewster Bango Trio*"
Hansen, Algorithms, Consortium ...yes have Slew 3 or 4 generations back, but don't you think that having Bernardini as the Sire of both Algorithms and Consortium may play in here more?
Bernardini did win multiple 9F and 10F GI/GII races in his short but stellar career before going to Stud.
Now, this is not to open any can of worms, it's just an observation.
I have been reading the pedigree talk on here, and looking at progeny/siblings, and it appeals to me. As Laura and others have pointed out, closer can be better :)
To Honor and Serve, Stay Thirsty, Wilburn, AZ Warrior, to name a few made $$$$$ as Bernardini progeny last year. Casual Trick is comming along this year. & Keith L ..I still have hope for A Single Man :)
I'm still interested in the doseage #'s, but am expanding my mindset.
And I look forward to The Holy Bull, and see who does show up in the starting gate :)
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#6 Midnight Con - Highest last race Beyer
- Drops in
- been working
#3 Take No Prisoners - the other speed
- been on the shelf and may need one
- Baffert 2nd start poor ROI
#9 I Feel Free - looks to be only stalker
HG Wager
$65 Win 6
$20 Tri 6 W/ 9 W/3
$5 Tri 6 W/ 9 W/378
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Hi Dan,
Glad to hear that your eye problems have cleared up. Vision is always important, especially in your field. I had a friend with an eye problem once, but the Doc set thinks straight with a special procedure that used foreskin to replace part of an eye-lid. It's now at the point where some have said my friend is just a cockeyed optimist thanks to the Optometrist.
As far as this weeks HG, I see that some are on the same as me so I'll just take a stab with the horses that look like the speed and say the 3 for Baffert with the inside track can wire the field and the 6 can run along in the 2 path.
100 Ex cold of 3-6 in HandiBucks.
As always, it's been an eyeopener.
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HG
#9 I Feel Free......Has run creditably at SA. Should love the distance.
#6 Midnight Con...Ran big at this level.
#8 War Politics.....Gets the hood and positive rider switch.
$50.00 Tris. 9-6-8 and 9-8-6
GL
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#6 Last race was top last best Beyer even though this gelding only beat one other horse. Hes been working sharply and drops down another notch. #8 His last race in Md sp wt came after someone thought highly enough for the claim. This being the only colt to make that distintion(claimed). Comes back with blinks on and maybe with a clean break things might improve. #3 Bullit Bob with the stretch out. Do believe this Giant Causeway colt will improve. $50 ex. 6/3*8. BTW would like to c my mkb Timely Talley come out onto the track for some work. Starting 2 worry all isent right. My fingers are crossed. good luck all. and please keep the hurtful jokes away from this site. It dosent belong.
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Dan,
So glad everything's OK! Welcome back!
Annie
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HG:
The reason I posted early, is because I knew I would be gone all day today and didn't know when the new thread would be put up.
I still do not recall any official ruling on exactly when the HG starts, and I know I have seen wagers put up before I had PPs from Dan. However, since it is apparently controversial, I will just re-post my HG wager here.
$50 Exacta Box: 3,6 = $100
Annie
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Laura
I'm so envious...
You get Dan our Man out to Gulfstream Park on your 1st asking for Formblog Convention #2 ! (ok, ok, I did get to meet Dan at Arlington Park for Formblog #1....loved it! )
BUT, I've been pleading with him for YEARS to come to LV for NHC weekend.
This is me and Chalky pouting :(
I know FB#2 will be a success, so have fun!
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HG:
Two drop downs here by the M & M boys, Mullins and Miller look talented here, and have the breeding to back them up, Mullins' #6 looks like the speed of this field (if the #14 doesn't enter in), being by Congrats and his overall form sprinting, especially in his last effort at $50K. Sharp works, and gets Delgadillo
The #7 from the Miller barn is by Quiet American, and has shown some promise. Makes the biggest drop in horse racing from the MSWs, and looks like he'll go at decent odds with journeyman Joe Steiner up.
Wager:
$ 5 W/$10P on #6 ($15)
$ 5 W/P/S on #7 ($15)
$70 Exacta (cold) #6 over #7 ($70)
$100 of Dan $$.
Good luck players.
Keith L.
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HG entry: $40 Exacta 8 over the 6,7; $20 Exacta 6 over 8
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HG
With 2 stretchouts showing speed, look for Bejarano to run them down in the final strides.
Wager $100 win #8
Thanks Dan!
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HGSA
$50 tri: 6 with 9 with 3,8.
On figs alone, Midnight Con wins. I like I Feel Free on the turn-back. Baffert's Take No Prisoners leads and fades late or War Politics gets a more aggressive ride from Bejarano than he got from Vergara or Krigger.
fijiking
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Dan
You are a FUNNY guy ...gald you are no longer an 'eye sore' (no pun intended )
Really, I'm glad you are on the road to recovery.
--------------------------
HG SA again:)
THIS time I will wait for scratches.
.. as I am eyeing a couple on the AE list like #13 Cheesy Breezy & #14 Mr Padre
Also, anyone notice how many of these have been running against some of our MKB horses ?
#3 Take No Prisioners - - MKB Holy Candy, Empire Way
#6 Midnight Con - - MKB Battle Force, Liaison, Basmati
#7 Already There - - MKB Handsome Mike
#8 War Politics - - MKB Groovin Solo, Castaway, Battle Force
#11 Flying Marine - - MKB Basmati
two MKB which run Saturday in a 56K MSW at SA, Castaway & Holy Candy ..hmmmm.
Talking about MKB ...workouts & entries later tonight :)
116 : 3 : 187 oatabia ...is there any religious reference to this ?
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HG-Santa Anita---Looks like there might be a good pace to close into with a bunch of horses stretching out.I like the 8-War Politics adding blinkers which should help keep in touch and the 10-Stormy Bob who goes 2nd out for Mitchell.By the looks of their pace figures they haven't shown their best yet with the 8 getting a hood and the 10 off slow in its only start so far. Oneill thought enough of the 8 to try MSW first time after he got that one in the barn.I guess I have to shoot for the moon with the 8 on top and hope it doesn't come the other way.
HG Wager
$100 Exacta 8/10
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Best Bets
MUTINY was claimed from seventh straight loss, and returned eight weeks later to beat a dozen rivals in best effort since last July; back to dirt and back with Rosie Napravnik after turf try on short rest. RUFFINO probably won't match 92 Beyer earned last time on this track last fall, but grizzled old pro got back in win column recently, when claimed by savvy owner-trainer; second in '09 Empire Classic over sloppy going here. HILL CROSSING has been freshened since Mar. 18 score second off the claim that earned best figure since daylight win here last summer; needs fast footing.
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