07/12/2012 11:05AM

Kibbitzing the $251k Carryover at Belmont

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The pick-6 at Belmont today, which starts at 2:26 pm with a $251,315 carryover, is a skullbuster that could easily carry again if the races are as chaotic in the running as they look on paper.

I haven't decided whether or how deeply to get involved, but here are the lineups after scratches and my notes so far. (Clearly, I still have some work to do.) The 12 morning scratches include two of the morning-line favorites in the sequence: Silver Timber in the 4th and Upside Down in the 7th:

 

The sextet includes four maiden races, three of them maiden claimers, and four grass races, all at a mile or less. The challenges include dealing with seven first-timers in a turf sprint for 2-year-old fillies that was thoughtlessly carded as the second rather than first leg, depriving pick-6 players of a peek at the win odds. The card was drawn before anyone knew there would be a $251k carryover, but under any circumstamnces there is no good reason to make a firster-filled race the 5th rather than 4th on a nine-race card.

Today's card begins a final four-day race week at Belmont, which closes Sunday. Saratoga opens a week from tomorrow.

 

 

1:50 pm: Looks like #7 Rustler Hustler will be heavily favored in the opening leg. With 4 MTP for the 3rd, the DD probables for the 3rd and 4th race show a payoff of just $8 on Inflation Target, the even money favorite in the 3rd, with Rustler Hustler in the 4th.

Planning to use Rustler Hustler and New Yawker as my A's in the 4th on a play I'm trying to keep in the $500 neighborhood. I'll be studying 4th-5th DD probables down to the wire to try to get some clus about those firsters in race 5, will post my ticket shortly before the 4th.

 

2:08 pm: DD willpays into 4th: $8.50 on Rustler Hustler, $24.60 on New Yawker. Same 1-2 favorites in pick-3 at $131.50 and $307.

Here's what the races4-5 DD probables look like with 16 MTP:

The Goldberg (#2) and Clement (#7) firsters are getting early play, with some support for the Pletcher and Albertrani firsters and the Romans second-timer. No surprises.

 

2:22 pm: Here's the play, for $528:

 

2:30 pm: Rustler Hustler ($3.80) ran down New Yawker to get things off to a chalky start.

Final 4/5 DD wilpays: $12.00 to #7 Funfair (Clement firster); $15.40 to #2 High N Far (Goldberg firster); $18.80 to #3 Priscilla Marie (Romans second-timer); $23.20 to #4 Colorful Image (Pletcher firster); $53.50 to #8 Giant Cats Eye (Albertrani firster); $126.00 to #1 entry (two Arroyo firsters), and $314.00 to Lady Jarlyn (Persaud firster).

 

3:04 pm: The early betting got it right, as Clement firster Funfair ($8.80) dueled with 5-2 fave Priscilla Marie from the start, then took over in upper stretch and won off by himself. High N Far was off slow, sat in the garden spot behind the duel, but faded to 4th in the stretch as Priscilla Marie held second with Colorful Image up for third. Leaves me alive 2x3x2x3 the rest of the way, though I have virtually zero confidence and my two in the 6th are currently 5-1 and 15-1.

 

3:15 pm: If the name Funfair sounds familiar, you're probably thinking of the British-bred Funfair (GB), the Singspiel gelding who won the 2005 Troy and Kelso before breaking down in the Breeders' Cup Mile at Belmont.

Unusual situation in the upcoming 6th, with three uncoupled trainer entries: two apiece from Clement (14-1 Attention and 2-1 Rain Forest), Romans (15-1 Street Dreams and 5-1 Bluegrass Rumor) and Bill Mott (21-1 Sands of Humor and 4-1 Comment), with each pair in adjoining post positions.

 

3:33 pm: My two barely outran the ambulance as 5-2 fave Rain Forest, Clement second-timer, got past 23-1 Street Dreams to win leg #3 and  keep many a ticket alive: $2 Pick-3 of first half of Pick-6 paid $72.50.

 

4:10 pm: Favored Sokitumi Samurai looked clear taking over on the turn but was collared by both halves of the (coupled) John Kimmel entry and ran third to Transplendent and Willy Pay. The winning entry, smashed from 3-1 to 9-5 late, paid $5.40 to win and $6.00 to place. First four winners in pick-6 have paid $3.80, $8.80, $7.60 and $5.40. Good luck if you're still going.

 

4:45 pm: War Colony, 4-1 on ML, 9-1 in early betting at 6-1 at post time, held off late charge by Washington Rules in feature race where three chalks ran 5-6-7 . Pick-6 willpays should be coming up momentarily....ah, here they are: Two uncovered horses in field of 12, #5 Karakorum Royale (currently 60-1) and #11 Eva Lil (currently 34-1) both would prompt a triple carryover.

5:15 pm: Favored Rock on Home ($5.60) wore down 5-2 second choice My Sparky to win the finale and complete a $7,592 pick-6, double the $3,746 parlay.

Three more days of racing at Belmont -- a 3 pm post time for the final Twilight Friday tomorrow, the $600k Man o'War on Saturday, and mandatory pick-6 payout for Sunday's closing-day card.