11/20/2010 10:41AM

Kennedy Road, Discovery, Mrs. Revere, Hollywood Prevue

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With graded earnings being necessary in order to earn a berth in the Kentucky Derby starting gate, the $600,000 first prize of today's Delta Jackpot is widely called the "golden ticket" to Louisville for one in-form juvenile. Looking back on previous Delta Jackpot winners, however, that's not necessarily the truth.

2006 (first year as a graded race):  Birdbirdistheword (1-12 record after the Jackpot, ran in the American Turf instead of the Derby)
2007:  Turf War, Z Humor (Dead-Heat) (Turf War went 0-6 after the Jackpot and didn't contest the Derby) (Z Humor went 2-24 after the Jackpot and finished fourteenth in the Derby).
2008:  Big Drama (4-10 after the Jackpot, did not run in the Derby)
2009:  Rule (1-2 after the Jackpot, did not run in the Derby)

Only one of the five thoroughbreds that received said "golden ticket" took up a spot in the Derby starting gate the following spring.  Remember that the Triple Crown trail is a long and winding road full of pitfalls, form reversals, and injuries.  The Delta Jackpot purse money may bring ease of mind to the owner of a prospective Derby runner, but the horse still must take them to Louisville, and we have a long, long way to go before Triple Crown time.

I must admit that I don't have a very strong opinion in this year's Jackpot.  I will try to beat the morning line favorite, Blue Laser, as he'll try dirt for the first time.  The three runners I'll use in multi-race wagers (in order of preference) are Bug Juice, Rush Now, and Sweet Ducky.  Perhaps Bug Juice can make the early lead and keep on going although the additional distance is a worry.  It's not a race I'll play with much gusto, if at all.  As usual, let price be your guiding light.

I do have some stronger opinions elsewhere this weekend.

Kennedy Road (Woodbine - Race 7):

Fatal Bullet is the deserving favorite in the Kennedy Road based on his vaunted early speed and strong back class, but he hasn't won a race in 2010, and hasn't gained ground from the stretch call to the wire in his last six races.  Ever since being blitzed by Hollywood Hit in the Grade 3 Vigil Stakes on May 9, Fatal Bullet has looked vulnerable.  Now, he'll get a nice class drop in the Kennedy Road, but I'll try to top him with a longer-priced contender. 
Signature Red is capable of putting up a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure on his best day (he earned three of them earlier this year), and it seems like he's rounding back into his best form.  In his most recent race, the allowance prep for the Kennedy Road contested over a closer-friendly polytrack, Signature Red prompted the pace from the five path, raced in the four path on the far turn, took the lead in upper stretch, and battled to the wire to finish second behind late-running Field Commission.  Considering the ground loss, it was a strong effort and he's come back to work a quick five-furlongs on November 13.  Perhaps Fatal Bullet's tactical advantage will give him too much of an edge, but Signature Red should be running a little bit in the stretch.
Selections:  Signature Red, Ravalo, Fatal Bullet

Discovery (Aqueduct - Race 8):

I prefer not to play horses off horrible recent running lines, but I'm going to give Stormy Majesty one more chance in the nine-furlong Discovery at the Big A.  In his most recent start, the Empire Classic for older New York-breds, Stormy Majesty was bumped at the break before being hung out to dry from the four path throughout.  It wasn't encouraging to see him falter to the very back of the pack in the stretch, but he didn't get a good trip at all.  His previous race, the Star of Cozzene for open three-year-olds, was pretty good.  That afternoon, he tracked the pace inside, angled five wide turning for home, and finished evenly behind Colizeo, a colt that returned to finish third in the Grade 3 Ack Ack Handicap behind the promising Apart.  Stormy Majesty won the Albany around two turns at this distance so perhaps getting another opportunity to stretch his legs around multiple bends will spur the necessary improvement needed for him to win the Discovery. 
Whatever the result, this year's Discovery looks like a wide-open race with all seven entrants in with a chance. 
Selections:  Stormy Majesty, Teaks North, Al Muhtasib

Mrs. Revere (Churchill Downs - Race 9):

After being scratched at the gate on August 16, Gitchee Goomie has raced in excellent form.  She rallied from last over a speed-favoring Saratoga inner turf course to just get nosed out on the wire in an entry-level statebred allowance on September 6, and then finished third in the Grade 1 Garden City when wheeled back on only 12 days rest.  In her most recent effort, the open Topicount Stakes on October 29, Gitchee Goomie ran her last three-eighths in 34.98 (last eighth in 11.83) to hold off the late-kickers. 
The Mrs. Revere is obviously a tougher spot than the Topicount, but Gitchee Goomie may appreciate the slight turnback in distance, and she should get some speed to attack in this spot.  I'll use her along with Aruna.  A perfect 2-2 in the United States, Aruna received a nice ride and a good trip to win the $100,000 Pebbles at Belmont on October 11.
Selections:  Gitchee Goomie, Aruna, Wild Mia

Hollywood Prevue (Hollywood Park - Race 8):

I think that Premier Pegasus is the controlling speed in the Hollywood Prevue, and I do believe that the half-brother to Norfolk winner Street Hero has another furlong in him.  He looked pretty good in winning the Jack Goodman Stakes at six furlongs as the pacesetter was engaged on the far turn only to turn back his main challenger in the final furlong.  If Alonso Quinonez can get him to settle on the front end, he could be long gone when the real running begins. 
Selections:  Premier Pegasus, High Level Jeff, Industry Leader

More importantly, who do you like this weekend?  I want to know.

Best,

Dan

Curt V. More than 1 year ago
Kram, Did you expect anything different ? HOY doesn't matter anymore, because she lost it 3 straight years{includes this year}. Grade 1 's only matter this year, 'cause she finally had them, albeit she didn't beat any G1 winners this year up to the Cup. & of course the Beyer Figs are now obsolete, 'cause she doesnt have any to speak of. Rachel's 116 trumps anything she ever had. The 3 G1 wins gainst Males on DIRT are 3 more than Zero, amongst her{RA}others last year & then there's always last years BC Classic, when she won on Attic Insulation, they wanted the HOY, but somehow, when she lost this years BC Classic on DIRT, the BC Classic doesn't mean anything..Jess said in May they aint running on Plastic in the BC, but they forget that they had an invite to the Beldame and/or Woodward & decided to do the Groucho Marx in "Duck Soup"..Again, that is conveniently forgotten...Now as to Seattle Slew & Secretariat, the 2 best of all time, she couldn't even beat a mediocre at best Blame...& Blame doesn't make anybody forget the Great Doctor, as in Fager........Blame isn't even in the top 100.......Landaluce, Ruffian & Rachel in '09 would have trounced on Dirt... PS:Remember, they said she was better on Dirt, than Plastic ? I doubt it...Do you really expect anything different ?
kram More than 1 year ago
Hey BSB 120 Beyer? I'm supposed to be impressed? Let's see, Secretariat's Belmont Beyer- 139. I guess that dispel's the myth of the "lightning fast" Belmont track that day. Oh and let's see, Pepper's Pride 19 for 19- Zenyatta 19 for 20. I guess that means, oh never mind. LOL
blackseabass More than 1 year ago
Kram , If you think 16/21 is ultra consistent thats your perogative . I don't . I didn't say he wasn't a top horse . I said he wasn't the top of the top IMO. I guess since HAWKSTER outran SEC's Grass 12f's by 15 -20 lengths and his Belmont by 10-12 he must be the greatest , right ? Since Sham and Monarchos ran the 2nd and 3rd fastest derby's that means there 3rd and 4th best behind Hawkster & Sec. , right ? I don't care if he was horse of the year as a weanling. (the William Morris agency slipped on that one) I especially like his DRF comments for his Whitney of WEAKENED. Or his Wood Memorial of WIDE,HUNG. I know you didn't remember SS being badly beaten. You probably selectively don't remember Secretariat weakening or hanging either. They don't recognize track records for workouts last time I checked. Best Pal & Commentator have multiple 120 something Beyers I guess that makes them the greatest , right ? SWAPS set 7 track or world records in one year from 8f-13f. I guess that makes him the greatest, right ? Naw , he's a Cal-bred so I'm sure he doesn't make your top 50. LMFAOROF kicking my feet and gasping for air.
Jeffrey More than 1 year ago
Season Greetings, I appreciate the feedback I’ve received with respect to my critical assessment of the recent Youbet/Twinspires consolidation. As opposed to addressing all of the responses in one fell swoop, I’m going to try and tackle them individually. Mickey: I do think the Derby replays are actually a nice distraction. My own gripe is that they’ve limited their selection to the last five or six years. I do agree that customer service was better at Youbet, primarily because it was prompt and the agents were candid in admitting they couldn’t help me with my issues. One of my biggest gripes with Twinspires is the ‘corporate feel.’ It’s as though you’re merely a bolt in the machinery of the state. They can always throw away a rusty bolt and get a new one. In other words, you’re just a peon in the scheme of things; your complaints are trivial and you can go fly a kite or bet greyhounds if you disagree. Thanks for the feedback on Wager Pad Pro. My only gripe is that you have to keep opening up new windows and shutting old ones. The old set up had everything on the same page. Plus, you’ve identified the issue with the software not staying on the same pool you’ve selected. Furthermore, it’s frustrating to have all of the data obscured by each new window you’re forced to open. I like to watch the betting action and its difficult to keep my betting window open while simultaneously watching the action in the WPS pools. It’s nearly impossible to multi-task several operations at once given their set up. I’ve encountered another glitch when trying to use the free Youbet past performance sheets, which are offered for free until the end of the year. They keep disappearing and you have to keep reloading them if you minimize your windows. As far as video goes, I will say the quality is better provided you steer clear of Twinspires TV. Last night I was watching Mountaineer (it was a speed-biased chalk fest with some suspicious class drops) and the quality trumped Youbet. I didn’t suffer any glitches either-so that’s a positive development. BTW, the only other online wagering site I love is Pokerstars (and I haven’t played there in ten months even though I was a winning player as opposed to this truly intricate game). The first site I ever bet horses on was WSEX (World Sports Exchange). It’s offshore and I don’t know its current status, but they were a model of efficiency and class. It’s too much to ask a legal domestic operator to get it right, especially in this industry (I’m being cynical). Greetings Blackseabass, As usual, I enjoy reading your posts (somebody has to, right?). Seriously though, I love your take-no-prisoners style and willingness to shoot from the hip with respect to the Zenyatta debate. Before I veer off-topic I thought I’d address your issue (with respect to TS’s handling of past wagering credits) with an email message I received from Twin Spires. Of course, I removed names to protect privacy. BTW, I agree with your sentiments on how the industry treats its customers. I think part of the problem has to do with horse racing being subsidized by the state. The employees act as though they’re entitled to your money both through wagering activity and tax money. It’s unthinkable that they are raising prices (track take-out) in order to increase wages (purses) during a recession. And the problem is not that don’t have enough supply. It’s that they’ve failed to create enough demand for their existing inventory! Personal email from Twinspires: “I consulted the top supervisors in my office to try and get the best possible answers for your questions today. I was told that as far as they knew your account would have a positive adjustment for the Turfday Super Stats that you had previously paid for on your Youbet account instead of a check being mailed out. As far as the issue with your video usage goes: For the time being you will have free video access on our website until we establish a subscription service similar to the one that Youbet had. Currently our video restrictions are as follows: Video streaming will be available for those account holders who have wagered: 1) A minimum of $50 in the last 5 days you have accessed the video system or, 2) A minimum of $50 during the last 5 calendar days or, 3) A minimum of $100 wagered during the previous 30 calendar days or, 4) A minimum of $600 wagered during the previous 90 calendar days or, 5) A minimum of $5,000 during the previous 360 calendar days. I could not receive a response at this time as to what exactly will happen to the video credits that you had built up on Youbet. If I do find out this information, however, I will keep your email address and let you know as soon as I know. I'm so sorry that this transition has been so frustrating for you and I hope that maybe I've helped you with the questions you have had.” Greetings Dan R, I appreciate your feedback, which sort of balanced out the discussion with a little bit of positive feedback. My suspicion is that you won’t have problems in terms of financial transactions (at least in terms of making deposits or withdrawals). That’s one of the nice things about a large domestic ADW: the integrity of the financial transactions isn’t as serious a concern as it is with offshore or smaller operations. Of course, you might get stuck dealing with their bloated bureaucracy (like I have) should a problem arise. In that case, you might have to wait a while, at least until they work out the kinks in their merger. If you read my previous post on this issue, you will see the list of complaints I generated. I was mostly frustrated with how my previous patronage was trivialized, the long waits, and their support staff’s lack of knowledge of transition-related issues. Furthermore, I still haven't been compensated for the $9.95 I lost when they eliminated Turfday Super Stats. On a positive note, I’m becoming a bit more acclimated to the idiosyncrasies of their technology. Unfortunately, I’m finding it takes about twice as long to place my wagers as it did on Youbet. There is simply too much clutter and several redundancies that could be eliminated. I wish I could simply open up an option that said ‘Youbet Alternative’ as opposed to ‘Classic’ or ‘Express.’ I want everything accessible on one page. Greetings Ron, I couldn’t have said it better: ‘Hire a horseplayer or two!’ Furthermore, it’s not as easy to navigate the site as they force you to keep opening up new windows. You have to perform too many options to accomplish what you want in order to A) bet. B) watch the horses. C) look at stats. I’m sorry to hear about your difficulties with WagerPadPro. Your issue seemingly mirrors the issue I’m having with their live TV option. Unfortunately, their technical support staff demonstrated a dismissive attitude and were intent on blaming me rather than finding a solution to my issue. My only suggestions are to: A) Call their tech staff during a non-peak hour B) keep pestering them until you accidentally stumble upon somebody who is able (and willing) to resolve your issue. Thank you, Jeffrey
SR Vegas More than 1 year ago
Oh Boy..now that I have a chance to check in after a few days on the road...and I'm overwelmed! Whacky nice to see you back Alan Thanks for the links you sent BEBC I'll be rooting on Goodifitgoes... but I won't be able to see it live on TV ( Parents do not have that access)...and therefore not see you in a winners circle :) Annie I know it's early but I too, would love a pony for Christmas...umm, the MKB kind :) Laura Lawduck Quack, Quack ! I have your back, Girl. Go Ducks !! Van Savant Go man Go, you are a true inspiration to your son and I so enjoy what you write and share with us all. As I have my own Nephews that are big time baseball & soccer athletes. I can appreciate the high of victory, and a low of defeat...it's all in the perspective. You have love in your heart, eh?....obviously..Yes! and I like to think I do, too. Okay.....just breezing through all these posts, & you ALL just amaze me. Sometimes when one just tries to catch up ( like moi') there is sooooo many different subjects that occur. I think if anyone took a year out, they could write a thesis on this blog. "HANDIGAMBLING & THE HORSE LOVER, AND ALL OTHERS" or something like that :) Dan our Man Thanks for having a formatt to have such interesting minds, opinions, and personalities all merge together. You are the best....oh, and it seems you are quite the astue Handicapper, too :) ..ok, I'll add... I hope Stephen Crist will get YOU out to Las Vegas for ther 2011 NHC weekend.. instead of one of the other guys....arrrggghhh, well. Dan will actually know some of the contestants, too !! Alan, Mike D, and there will be a wealth of local support to root them on. OK, just my opinion, but each year (like the last three) I do ask for Dan you to come out here :) My apologies if this was not the correct forum to plead my case..... SR Vegas Happy Thanksgiving Everyone 'seen bottatte'....ok?
Dan R. More than 1 year ago
Youbet & Twinspires - I too had credits built up for free video/pp's and was worried but in the Youbet FAQ section on twinspires it states all credits will be honored and I have not had a problem yet (albeit in limited betting action) with any video restrictions - Both the express and pro offer similar looks/style of youbet; graphics are a little simpler but it seems familiar enough - Have not had to deposit funds yet, nor have I requested a withdrawal so I am unsure how smooth that process will be. With youbet I had ACH deposit/withdrawal direct to bank account and the FAQ claims it will be seemless transition (except first deposit is restricted to $500) though hearing stories about customer service calls has me a bit worried. Jeffrey & Mickey You both complained about the customer service and phone system delays/problems; can I ask what issue where you calling about? I have never had to contact Youbet for anything so was just wondering if it is going to be a pain in the butt to deposit/withdraw or if you were having technical issues? Thanks...Dan R.
Whackymacky More than 1 year ago
Greetings all... I am still lurking out here... Boy thing's have dropped off. Everyone is all over the place. From cheap claiming races to chess. I have seen it all. Mickey Still not playing yet. Waiting until 12-1. Waiting for the big fields from down south and the midwest. Family time is number one along with High School Football!!! Still stung from the BC. BSB Might be going fishing this weekend over on Nantucket. If is see VP Biden, I will pass along your well wishes. LOL C You keep it up with your fantastic posting. I have said all along that you are one of the best, and you continue to shine. You always seem to balance the conversation's. Annie I want a MKB baby this year. Sign me up. My Heart Butte never got going last year. I hope that you bought a new shovel this year. I think that it is going to be a long snowy winter in Minny. PS How bout those Viking's!! What a mess!! Good luck with them and old man Brett. LOL :) Mike A What are your thoughts on NY Racing in the Winter month's ahead. I think that you should play the grass races from sunny FLA. Stay away from the 6 Horse field!! JMO. You might catch Chuckie Lopez on a speed horse at a price. He can win on the front end baby. He did it for me 4 times last year. I am only telling you something that you already know. Good Luck Midwest Ed I will be playing your track. Please give me an idea of what trainer's are the sneaky one's!! You must have some thought's. I do not play much in the Midwest, but I am going to start playing some Pick 3's and Pick 4's. The pool's are smaller, but you might catch a big one and score a pool ticket. Good Luck to you!!! Blackstone Hang in there my friend. You are really working those numbers!!! Play those DD's and hit some big one's. Stay healthy and enjoy the Holiday's. Is the celebration of the Giant's winning it all over yet??? Good Luck. Dan Great run this year by you my friend. You must be the hardest working man in our game. You are well respected by many, and this group especially. We greatly appreciate what you do for us !!! Have a Happy and Healthy Holiday Season. Take a step back from it all and enjoy family time. I must tell you, it brought tears to my eyes to see my 2 daughter's when we won a Turkey at our Church Raffle. They carried over the 20 pound frozen Turkey and the look in there eye's just said it all !!! Cheers. Whackymacky Out!!!
Alan More than 1 year ago
Dan, On Simulcast Daily, DRF prints "Trainer Patterns" = one year cumulative trainer stats. Why don't they keep/print the same information for jockeys = one year cumulative jockey stats for win%, ITM%, ROI, sprint, route, turf, 1st Start? Can you please talk to the "Higher Ups" at DRF and get them to start doing this...as an early Hanukkah present for me?
Ron Zuercher More than 1 year ago
WOW!! The picture accompanying the Fall Highweight Story is one of the best I have ever seen in DRF. I wished I looked like that. (Guess which one) Alan I too have suggested similar improvements about the jockey stats to the people at Formulator. Also, my pet peeve, is not knowing which cards you have downloaded. It would be very simple to have the date just change color. They tell me they (Formulator) are looking into it. My advice: HIRE A HORSEPLAYER! Former YOUBETTORS Remember when Twin Spires sent us an email saying nothing would change? Hah! And they would take the best from YOUBET and incorporate into Twin Spires? Hah! No matter what I do I can not get Wager Pad Pro to work. I have downloaded Adobe Air. Twin Spires might be acceptable, but it is not nearly as easy to go back and forth to where I want to go back and forth to. HIRE A HORSEPLAYER OR TWO! I'm still looking for an alternative. Meathead I have worked in multiple states in the same calendar year with varying addresses. The IRS doesn't care where your address is, just send them the money. BSB If captchas were legible, then the non-humans could read them. It is a beautiful fall day here. I think I will go for a walk.
meathead01 More than 1 year ago
Ron Zuercher thanks for the info I think I will try the P.O. box angle sounds to me my only way around the G-men. In my opinion the gov. is getting to intrusive in my personal life. In reply to the claimers the lowest I like to go is 10000-12000 level. I find more good bets in geldings dropping to this level off a closing ground effort in higher company. If he is going LTS this makes him a stronger play. hope this helps some.
Mickey More than 1 year ago
Curt V: Read your post about Zenyatta.....and couldn't agree more........Moss is the one who is totally at fault here in many ways (as is Sherriff's).......... 1. They did not get a training trip over the CD surface.... 2. They has ample opportunity to race in a bigger race at West...(Santa Anita Hndcp, Hollywood Gold Gup..etc..)...or (bury RA at Saratoga)...and in reality....would she have lost against any of those on her home turf?...or distance?...IMO..very doubtfull..... 3. I appreciate them bringing her back for a racing campaign..but if it wasn't for just "show"..then they should have done something more with her this year. 4. She "should have" won the award this year hands down..and the HUMAN connections let it slip away from them for NO REASON.....that is what is frustrating....
blackseabass More than 1 year ago
A few things on cheap claimers. First, Mickey makes a lot of good points in his post on the subject. Personally, I have quite a bit of success with claimers. These are some of the reasons why.Number 1 RECENCY is paramount with cheapies. Good horses can win with long gaps but cheap ones rarely do even when they look best. Shippers, i.e. a 20,000 horse at GG running for 20,000 at SA probably has a hidden Class advantage. At SA 20,000 is lower mid-level at GG its upper mid- level. SoCal players overlook that fact and prices can be had. The same thing goes at other tracks. Class jumpers, Don't bet class jumpers unless they won by open lengths for speed or pulling away for closers. N2L, In fields of N2L's with many tries the horse that broke its maiden for the biggest purse (no matter how long ago) is probably the best horse. Stay away from Sprint to route or route to sprint with cheapies , its a sign of desperation like blinks on or off. Horses running the same distance as last time are much more reliable to run a race. 1st after claim , horses in the hands of moderately successful trainers (returning at the same level or dropping a level) that GET BET, 5/2 or lower, are very reliable to run a race. Don't worry about poor trainer 1st off claim stats, they don't factor in the get bet or same level part. Horses that broke maiden in mdn clm that don't or can't win their gimme starter allowance can generally be competitive at claiming prices 1/2 or less of what they broke mdn for and prices can be had. Don't bet cheapies that didn't finish within a stones throw of the winner in their most recent race . Exception to that being one way speed that couldn't make the lead last time or made the lead dueled and faded. Most of the formbloggers probably know all that stuff but there might be some that didn't or have forgotten it. I hope its some help to someone. Good luck to all the players this week . If you see a horse named Thankful Pilgrim or something like that don't be afraid to make a small wager. LOL