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Here are the top 25 winning Beyer Speed Figures from last week's races (1/10 - 1/16):
1. Big Drama - 119 - Mr. Prospector Stakes (G3) - Gulfstream - 6 Furlongs
2. Inherit the Gold - 100 - OC 35k/N1X-N - Aqueduct - 1 1/8 Miles (Inner Dirt)
3. Joey P. - 99 - OC 62k/N2X - Gulfstream - 6 Furlongs
4. Square Eddie - 98 - Alw 61924N2X - Santa Anita - 6 1/2 Furlongs
5. Tapizar - 97 - Sham Stakes (G3) - Santa Anita - 1 1/16 Miles
6. Gran Lioness - 96 - My Trusty Cat Stakes - Delta - 7 Furlongs
6. Quiet Giant - 96 - Lady on the Run Stakes - Aqueduct - 1 Mile (Inner Dirt)
8. Chief Jay - 95 - John E. Jackson Memorial Stakes - Fair Grounds - 5 1/2 Furlongs
8. Speedacious - 95 - Happy Ticket Stakes - Fair Grounds - 5 1/2 Furlongs
10. Tar Heel Mom - 94 - Sugar Swirl Stakes (G3) - Gulfstream - 6 Furlongs
11. Aspenglow - 93 - What A Summer Stakes - Laurel - 6 Furlongs
11. Vadertore - 93 - Alw 42460N1X - Golden Gate - 6 Furlongs (Tapeta)
13. Da Ruler - 92 - Md Sp Wt 54k - Santa Anita - 6 1/2 Furlongs
13. Mr. Commons - 92 - Md Sp Wt 55k - Santa Anita - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf)
13. Sin and the City - 92 - Alw 44000N1X - Aqueduct - 6 Furlongs (Inner Dirt)
16. Flashpoint - 91 - Md Sp Wt 41k - Aqueduct - 6 Furlongs (Inner Dirt)
16. Morumsco - 91 - OC 32k/N3X-N - Laurel - 7 Furlongs
16. Pewter - 91 - Clm 15000N4L - Aqueduct - 6 Furlongs (Inner Dirt)
19. Brilliant Sunshine - 90 - Alw 48400N2X - Parx - 6 Furlongs"
19. Catch a Thief - 90 - OC 100k/C-N - Gulfstream - 1 Mile
19. Citrus Kid - 90 - OC 62k/N2X-N - Gulfstream - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf)
19. Decisive Moment - 90 - Jean Lafitte Stakes - Delta - 1 Mile
19. Indian Firewater - 90 - San Fernando Stakes (G2) - Santa Anita - 1 1/16 Miles
19. Laysh Laysh Laysh - 90 - Clm 60000(60-50) - Aqueduct - 6 Furlongs (Inner Dirt)
19. Mr Magenta - 90 - Clm 7500N1Y - Aqueduct - 6 Furlongs (Inner Dirt)
*Big Drama's past performances are available at the bottom of this blog posting. It was a big holiday weekend for the David Fawkes-trained son of Montbrook. On Saturday afternoon, he broke the six-furlong track record at Gulfstream with a 1:08.12 clocking in the Grade 3 Mr. Prospector Stakes. Two nights later, his connections took home the Eclipse hardware for best sprinter of 2010. A winner in 10 of 17 lifetime races, Big Drama is obviously the leader in the sprint division, but keep in mind that he did win the Mr. Prospector in gate-to-wire fashion over a main track that was favoring speed for much of Saturday's races.
Runner-up Custom For Carlos, making his first start back since injuring a hoof early in 2010, ran very well for second (108 Beyer). He should benefit from the outing.
*Joey P., a newly-turned 9-year-old gelding, is one of the most popular New Jersey-breds in history, and deservedly so. The son of Close Up has battled adversity throughout his 42-race career. After winning the 2005 Rutgers Stakes at the Meadowlands, he had chips removed from his knees. After finishing second in the Grade 3 Gravesend Handicap in 2007, he had problems with his foot. A respiratory infection kept him out of action after he finished sixth in the Grade 3 Toboggan Stakes in 2009. Later that year, he had surgery for a twisted intestine. Hoof problems flared up again after finishing second in the 2010 John J. Reilly Handicap, a race that he had won in 2006, 2008, and 2009.
Like Rocky Balboa, Joey P. keeps getting off the canvas. Ridden by Joe Bravo in a $62,500 optional claimer at Gulfstream last week, Joey P. sped to the early lead before being hooked by race favorite Safe Trip on the far turn. Safe Trip, five years Joey P's junior, poked a head in front in upper stretch, but Joey P. wouldn't be denied. He roared back along the rail to win by a head. A 12-time stakes-winner, Joey P.'s biggest victory came in the Grade 3 Jersey Shore Breeders' Cup way back in 2005. His is the heart, courage, and class of the thoroughbred that we proudly point to when we tell our non-racing friends why we enjoy this game so, so much.
*It may not have been the greatest comeback since Lazarus, but Square Eddie returned from injury, and a season at stud, to punch his ticket to either the Donn Handicap or Santa Anita Handicap. Away since December 26, 2009 due to a suspensory injury and breathing problems, and after covering 35 mares at Vessels Stallion Farm in California, Square Eddie broke the 6 1/2-furlong track record at Santa Anita last week with a 1:13.11 clocking. A five-year-old son of Smart Strike, Square Eddie won the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity over the Keeneland polytrack in 2008, and finished second in that year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
*Tar Heel Mom deserved much better than a 1-6 record in 2010. The daughter of Flatter missed by a head in the 2010 Sugar Swirl at Gulfstream, was beaten a half-length in the Hurricane Bertie over the Hallandale oval a month later, finished second in the Inside Information at Gulfstream on March 14, and was defeated by three-quarters of a length in the Vagrancy at Aqueduct in May. After undergoing surgery to correct a condylar fracture in her left hind leg, Tar Heel Mom finished third while giving seven pounds to the streaking Nicole H in the Garland of Roses Handicap to conclude her 2010 campaign. She started this season with a flourish, gamely winning the Sugar Swirl over hard-trying Hilda's Passion. Expect to see her back in races like the Hurricane Bertie and Inside Information at this meet.
*Tapizar grabbed the headlines for three-year-olds with his win in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita, but a pair of promising sophomores graduated in fast time at the Great Race Place. Da Ruler, a homebred son of Roman Ruler, won first-out for Bob Baffert on January 16. His dam, Dirty Diana (by Flying Continental), won the CTBA Stakes at 5 1/2 furlongs for Baffert back in 2003.
John Shirreffs was represented by maiden winner Mr. Commons in a downhill turf sprint at Santa Anita the previous afternoon. A $70,000 yearling, Mr. Commons is by Breeders' Cup Mile winner Artie Schiller out of Natalma Stakes heroine Joustabout, making him a half-brother to multiple stakes-winning turf router Jungle Fighter. Mr. Commons, sixth in his debut over cushion track last year, scored by 5 1/2 lengths, and looks to have a future on turf.
Albergatti, a game second to Da Ruler, shouldn't be a maiden for long. The Unbridled's Song colt is trained by Steve Asmussen.
*Although she doesn't have the big numbers of some of her contemporaries, keep an eye out for Wild About Sonny, a three-year-old filly trained by Kelly Breen. A debut graduate in game fashion over three next-out winners in her lone juvenile start last June, Wild About Sonny returned to the races with another gutsy victory in an entry-level allowance race at Gulfstream on January 13. By Officer out of a Crafty Prospector mare, she looks and is bred like a sprinter with potential.
***
I'll change things up this week and get to your questions in Friday's blog.
Congrats to Lindsay for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling exercise. She selects Thursday's eighth race at Gulfstream for this week's race.
PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POSTING
Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan." Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified. Please post your plays and analysis to the blog. In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per person please. I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
Best of luck to all
| Attachment | Size |
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| Big Drama.pdf | 60.01 KB |
| HG 219.pdf | 187.18 KB |
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$50 WP on Baltimore Bob-loves the distance and is ok at GP
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HG @ Gulfstream 8th
$1 tri box 3 4 5 6 8 $60.00
10 cent super box 3 4 5 6 8 9 $36.00
$1 tri 5 6/ 5 6 /3 8 $4.00
Think #5 Rogue Victory will be much closer to the pace today as well as #6 Sr. Henry who I think will be close to the lead today. The jock/trainer combo is also solid on these two horses.
Heading for the cities in the morning for some family activities with the grandkids and hope to get out to Canterbury Park on Friday afternoon.
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bsb
that's a pretty vaguely worded question...
can I have lone speed in an off-the-turfer?
winless bugboy switch to top speed jockey?
can it look like we're moving up in class when we're actually dropping slightly?
sorry, it's very difficult to imagine a "hypothetical race vs. peers..."
ps. why would you go to all that trouble coming up with your "convoluted" scheme above, if it's not something you would actually want to use?
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HG219: I like #5 ROGUE VICTORY and #6 SR. HENRY, using those two in supers and tris. Both have handled good turf, and although Sr Henry could be lone speed I think RV can catch him.
$1 Super: 56-all-all-56 = $84
$1 Super: 5-1479-6-1479 = $12
$1 tri: 6-1479-5 = $4
Good luck to all.
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HG 219
$100 WIN #6 Sr. Henry - class and good recent form
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hg.
$100.00 to win on #6.
Won smilar race at gp 51 weeks ago at 1 and1/16th . Hopefully the engine gets revved in time, shortening to a mile.
Good luck to all.
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Ron Zuercher
Terrific post-I really enjoyed it.
Curt-you're not trying yo draw me into this thing of Z vs the East Coast bias, are you? I think I'm an innocent bystander in all of it-just a scorekeeper-other than a few thousand in bribes, that is. But the strategy did work, although the wife is a little poorer.
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HG 219
The bet:
$100 exacta 6-9 (Sir Henry to Bangalore)
Comments
A fun race to look at and handicap, especially since it is staying on the grass. I'll go with Sir Henry off the long layoff (for Dutrow) of five days, and put the chalk in the secind slot. How many time have we seen Dutrow pull this trick? Lots, for sure. Henry isn't much on winning, but then not too many others in this race are either. In truth, in real life I would skip betting this race as I think there are at least five-maybe six-with a big shot at doing it. But I will enjoy watching it for sure.
Good luck to all of you.
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HG219
Baltimore Bob runs well fresh and had good workout on Dec 31, another slow start could cost Bangalore Gold the win.
$98 exactor 4-9
$1 tri 4/9/5,6
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HG219 *2nd Revision
$4 Super
5,9 / 4,9 / 2,4,5,6 / 1,3,4,5,6
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Revised HG
Going to anticipate off the turf
$100 Ex 10/6
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HG SUNSHINE TURF
This is an excellent handicapping race - nice choice!! Lots of angles, few if any toss-outs.
I made money in October on #1 Black Scorpion (ML:8/1), as would anyone who watched his prior race (BTW, A GREAT EXAMPLE FOR YOUR FOLLOWUP TRIP HANDICAPPING DVD DAN - the video is much more descriptive/representative of the trip than the "comment" in the PPs!) On the other hand, Black Scorpion had the perfect trip in that October victory. A similar trip puts him in the mix today. WIN CANDIDATE
#9 Bangalore Gold (ML:5/2) had slow starts and stretch issues in both US starts. Garcia gets the call and should win with a cleaner trip. WIN CANDIDATE
#4 Baltimore Bob goes to the barn of Gerry Carwood. He liked this course 2 years ago and appears to be training well. UNDER
#5 Rogue victory just missed 1st back earlier this month. UNDER
WAGER:
TRIs with #1,9 on top and key under with #4,5 under. Also exacta box of my top two choices.
$10TRI #9/1/4,5 = $20
$10TRI #9/4,5/1 = $20
$10TRI #1/9/4,5 = $20
$10TRI #1/4,5/9 = $20
$10EXBX #1,9 = $20
$100 TOTAL
Good luck today!
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HG 219
New to this, here we go. If it stays on turf, I will assume a little give. I like to focus on horses that press the pace on such tracks. The # 5 found himself back a bit to a fast pace, closed well to just miss. He certainly liked give in the ground at SAR, he presses and goes on by.
$3 Tri 5/7/all $21
$10 Tri 5/4/all $70
$9 ex 5/7 $9
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HG 219
$100 win on #7 Lucas Brady
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HG 291 : Turf Update
As of this posting @ 11:22a.m., the horses are running on turf, the surface has been listed as good.
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HG219
#1 -Black Scorpion- OC 25k at CRC is not exactly OC 80k at GP. Sharp but moves up a bit too much here.
#2- Oil Man- Once a promising 3yr (summer of ’09) but never developed into anything.
#3-Reb- Another once promising 3yr old just like the #2 but has not raced since mid '09. My need one.
#4-Baltimore Bob- Coming off a freshening, possibly first time in for a tag and gets a 5 alarm driver change.
#5- Rogue Victory- Last race was needed and the slow start didn’t help, should be closer to the pace and Castellano very good on grass.
#6-Sr. Henry- Back class (almost $300K in 28 races), good return race and should be close or on lead as there is little pace in here. Seems to have soundness issues but Dutrow wheels him back in 5 days and Johnny V. takes the mount. Doubt JV would bother with a claimer who seems unsound. If he likes this horses chances, I guess I do as well.
#7- Lucas Brady- Seems too slow to win this.
#8- Calimonco -Also a little slower them these.
#9- Bangalore Gold.- Must respect anything Clement enters and this one did not race over a 1m in Europe so this may actually be the right distance for him. Running style may be compromised due to pace here but should be running late.
#10 –Headache- If races comes off the grass, I will have a headache.
$40 Win #6
$15 EX 6/3,4,5,9
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blackseabass
I meant to comment on your post re Overhead/ROI last night but couldn't get at my computer at home. $800 per month in Overhead is a ton of money , even going every day, that works out to $36+ plus per day. You must use a lot of gas. By way of comparison-I live nine miles from one of the better OTB's in Nor Cal (Pleasanton)-parking is free and the admission charge is $5. I also work about five miles from GGF itself, so not much gas is used no matter where I go. My costs are just the forms ($3 to $5 per day), admission at the OTB, and toner and paper in the printer (I use mostly the online forms). Worst case for me is probably $10-$12 per day, depending on how I allocate the toner and paper costs. So for me, I'm lucky in that the daily overhead really is incidental to how much I'm pouring through the windows. I assume you drive to the track and pass one or more OTB's on the way, hence pushing your costs higher than they could be if you ever decided to change your style. The only thing that irritates me, and I'm sure this is true iof most everybody, is going through so much toner. I've tried the recycled stuff, but have found the failure rate way too high. One of these days I will get serious about getting an expensive printer that spreads the toner out over thousands of pages. Small things get to me, as they always have. $800 per month-gulp!
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HG 219: I'm going to key #7. He doesn't have the class but has the best balanced speed fig and the 2nd best final fraction rating. He's 15-1 on the morning line and he's also the prorated longshot of the race. I figure the 4 and the 9 will take the most money so I'll take a stab that they will both finish out of the tri and then fudge that one or the other will win. $2 tri box 4-5-7; $2 tri box 5-6-7; $10 tri key 3/6,7; $10 tri key 9/6,7; $4 to win on the 7; $8 to place on the 7; $24 to show on the 7.
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Annie,
When I pulled up the blog yesterday, your HG analysis was comment #1. I saw it, and did a double take. I checked the entries and saw that it was "Baltimore Bob". I actually saw him run once at Pimlico in 2009, I think on a BES undercard or something like that. It was a turf race, and I remember that he finished out of the money.
The wedding stuff is filling up my days. I don't get much time to cap lately. I've been praying for a snow day or two to give me a chance to catch up on what's been going on at Gulfstream...
Waiting for COIL to come out of hiding...
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$50 exacta box 4-7. love calder shippers at a price.
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HG 219
Rogue victory has 3 victories in 6 starts at Gulf - victory last time on yl turf - major move in last race - 2nd off the layoff - Castellano rides this horse well - he will be my key horse:
$2 tri 5/149/1349 - $18 - play 5 times for $90
$5 Ex 5/49 -$10
thks
badbrew
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$100 win #4 baltimore bob
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HG 219
$25 Tri 9 / 4,5 / 4,5,6
I like the #9 to benefit from a little more time in Clement's care, a brief freshening, and the turn back to 1 mile that should only sharpen his closing kick.
Good luck all !!!
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Handigambling
$100 Tri 4-5-1
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It now can be revealed. I now know why I believe Zenyatta won the '10 HOY...2 weeks prior to the vote, I secretly told an un-named fellow blogger in a private conversation, that I indeed changed my vote from Blame to the Big Girl. I didn't want to screw w/Blackstone's recapitulation totals. I also didn't want to suffer the ridicule........LMAO........
For the same reason, Rachel Alexandra won it in '09, for beating the underachiever{HOY award & Moss}, who only raced 5 times....; then it would only be appropriate to do the same for Blame, who also only raced 5 times...It still doesn't change anything in the grand scheme of things...If chasing Blame was a problem & she lost, & Big Drama couldn't out-sprint Rachel, Z would have needed a telescope & a 30 length head start to find Rachel in '09..
The answer is:> I removed the "Malocchio Curse">>{Maloiks}...The Evil Eye......LOL..
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HG analysis
#1 Black scorpion seems best as a closer,but he has pressed in the past. with this paceless bunch he may find himself in 2nd by default early. The 6yr old is facing horses that have cracked this condition already so he has something to prove. Has hit the board 3 of 3 off lines . On the page. I'm thinking minor placing first time N3x maybe.
#2 Oil Man Appears to have seen better days, but his race two back makes him somewhat competitive here. Tangling with these guys is more sensible than taking on Liberian Freighter or Global Hunter. I can't really like him,but he wouldn't be impossible I suppose.
#3 Reb Been Away a long time. He's working steady for his return . They've chosen a reasonable spot for his comeback,but I'll have to see one first. If he did pop up it would be a mild surprise. I'd bet against it.
#4 Baltibob Has won over the track and loves this distance. He hasn't raced for some time either ,but he shows 3 fine efforts in 3 tries off similar long breaks on the page. His work schedule is a little haphaZard . Perhaps that is weather related ? Bob has a possible slight class advantage with most of these. He is a probable contender.
#5 Rogue Victory Has won at this level . He's coming off a fine recent effort .His 6th in his second comebacker last time was maybe better than it appears at a glance. I would consider him a contender with these guys . He can stalk or close.
#6 SR. Henry is making a quick turnaround which I happen to approve of. He was all out when winning at this level over this track last Jan. He's the only horse on the page thats had the lead at the 1st or 2nd call in a race. It should be fairly easy for him to assume the lead early. Scorpion or Lucas could press him a little but maybe not. They say the track is slightly against the speed ,but lone speed is always dangerous. I expect he'll be all out to win but he'll never have a better chance to wire them.
#7 Lucas Brady He's kinda funny looking because he is in for 80,000 and it doesn't appear that he has to be. He's been running fairly well every 2 or 3 weeks . I'm not sure what to make of the tag. I doubt anybody is going to claim him for 80 . 32000 maybe. He came home pretty good a couple back. One of the few that could( If they wanted to) push Henry a little. I'd have to say no ,but a change in tactics could still mess up my horse.
#8 Calimonco, might be in with the trackers early . He took a long time to get past N2X . I doubt he'll crack N3X vs. these.
#9 Bangadore Gold Will be one of many rallying from the back. I would label him the 5th most probable in here . Not impossible but not that likely.
#10 Headache contender if its on the main. I hope its not.
HG wagers unrevised if I don't decide to change them at the last moment .
$1 tri 4,5 / 6 / 4,5 = 2
$1 tri 1,4,5,/ 1,4,5 / 6 = 6
$1 tri 1,4,5 / 6 / 1,4,5 = 6
$1 tri 6 / 1,9 / 4,5 = 4
$2 tri 6/ 4,5 / 1, 9 = 8
$11 tri 6 / 4,5 /4,5 = 22
$.50 sup 6 / 4,5 /4,5 / 1,9 = 2
$ 8 ex 6 /5 = 8
$ 4 ex 5 /6 = 4
$2 ex box 4,5 = 4
$2 ex box 4,6 = 4
$1 ex 5,6 /1, 9 = 4
$1 ex 1,9 /5,6 = 4
$1 sup 6 / 4,5/ 4,5 /1 = 2
$ 20 win 6 = 20
= 100 Dandy$
I may well decide to bet this after I see the board. Of course not in the convoluted manner above .LOL. Sorry tencent. 92% of my Dandy$ are ridin' on the 6. Thanks Dan & tencent
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hg
off to work, no time for comment
like the 5, lost to alkali also won on the saratoga course from slightly off the pace ...also the 7 ran well in the dania and hallandale. better price.
the bet
40 win 7
14ex box 5-7
4 tri
5,7/4,5,7/4,5,7,9
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Hg 219
I think most of these in here need a race..So I'm going with recent action.
$ 10 tri Bx 5,6,7
$ 20 tri 7 / 5,6
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ALL : Possible HG amendment
I know its a bit early, but i just came back from the Gulfstream site and in the upper right hand corner is a note that says the races are off turf. HOWEVER, i don't know if that was from yesterday or was newly listed for today. If the race does indeed go off-turf i will be making this amendment....... what a shocker that would be..... another turf race goes off on the dirt...... when will we learn......
$100. win on #10 Headache (only if race goes off turf)
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Blackstone,
No.. It was not about you..But, after reading my comment, I can see how it might have been confusing & misconstrued....It was poor sentence structure on my part..I actually did however, really had that conversation, & changed my own mind about who I thought was the HOY, from Blame to Z..& I did post some thoughts about it on Jay's "Eclipse this" article, prior to the real vote..
I had the Epiphany about 2 weeks ago, & just forgot all about your contest..The whole comment thing was for 1 individual{not you of cooorse}LOL....& they're probably are all pantied up........& out of shape.....I suggest you splurge for the better printer........Me ? That's my wife's department..
I've got my own departments, trust me..Honey do's all over the place.......Maybe that unknown blogger will fess up.........
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HG 219
Calimonco should be a good price, has faced good ones, good connections
$100 win #8
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An intriguing puzzle , complicated for me by the three horses that most intrigued me being prepped at private training centers. If any of you Floridians can provide info on the particulars of these off-track sites (surface, configuration, # of horses training there, etc) I'd be grateful.
This is an odd race, that I will pass on with real money. For me the problem is that the most talented horses are not the ones who appear to have advantages this time around. The two jockeys who are most likely to gun for the lead and try to slow it down are Paco Lopez and Kent Desormeaux. Neither is on a horse that seems the best. The horses that will most likely benefit from the pace scenario are Sr. Henry and Black Scorpion, and again in terms of pure talent, I don't think these 2 are tops.
#1 Black Scorpion -an outside chance to profit from inside draw and presumed current sharp condition. At first look, he seemed outclassed, but not without a chance in a relatively paceless field. Also seems to be ok on less than firm turf.
#3 Reb - Past-class horse coming off an extended vacation, working (literally) like clockwork at a training center. Time to make a start. Jock is not unwilling to help a trainer set a horse up, so hard to wholeheartedly expect a top effort.
#4 Baltimore Bob - He seems solid enough at this level and reliable to make some kind of effort. A mile probably is his best game.
#5 Rogue Victory - Has current form, good trainer and one of my favorite jocks on the turf. Doesn't need to carry his track around and seems reliable to run his race
#6 Sr. Henry - the other horse with good current form. This is probably his uppermost level at which he's competitive, but jock and trainer probable ensure that he will do as well as he can. He probably can be up on the pace a bit, which gives him an advantage in a field full of pace-pressers.
#9 Bangalore Gold - In his 2 starts in this country he was beaten by horses that would be favored to win this. Runnerup finishes to good horses do not always equal winning finishes against lesser, however. In his favor I'm counting on his late rally style to help him overcome the obvious disadvantage of an outside post in a race that starts on a turn. He won a couple of sprints in Ireland so maybe he does not need to be too far back to mount a rally.
The bets
$5 Ex 5,9-1,3,4,5,6,9 =$50
$20W #9= $20
$10 P #5 =$10
$10 S #1,3 =$20
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ANNIE & P. Ensign , I know you guys are Pic-6 players so I wanted to ask who you would consider as the easiest or most confident pic-6 SINGLE in a hypothetical race vs their peers ?
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Blackstone , yeah the gas was about half, $20 a day . No ITW between me and the tracks Holly or SA. Thats nice to have the ITW so close to you. Parking is free ! Wow they even charge to park in Bakersfield down here. At hollypark its free but its $8 to get through the gate so they make up for it that way. 36- 37 bucks a day is about right. To do it from here , it would be more like 60 something bucks a day and an extra two hrs or more. I'm sick enough that I'd pay the dough but don't relish the extra drive hence computer play is what I do most these days. You can cut back the admission with a thoroughbred card ,but I forgot to carry it in with me a lot of the time (big dummy) and never went back to get it. To LaZy. I used to use a wagering card that gave me about $600 back at the end of a year in money or books etc ,but eventually decided I didn't like them tracking every bet I made. Driving my little pick-up was cheaper but driving my luxury car was more comfortable and stylish. LOL.( picture a shopping cart man with a form in his back pocket & a cig hanging out of his mouth driving a fancy car) LOL. When going to hollypark I usually chose comfort . There wasn't a lot of difference miles wise ,but time is another matter altogether.
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HG:
Not much to say in this one that already hasnt been said. I love the 9's last workout. He has his work cut out from him out there but I just he is coming into this race better than the others. I also like the 4 and 5 but the 9 will be the key for me.
$40 tri 9/4-5/4-5 = $80
$3 super 9/1-4-5/1-4-5/1-4-5 = $98
$2 for a pen. Mine ran out of ink
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There are two 12/1's today at Santa Anita that are worth a hard look:
Race 5 - #5 Wing Forward - a veteran allowance/handicap type who when right could topple these pretty easily. He had a two year layoff (July 2008 to August 2010) and has had three pretty rough trips - finishing 3.5 lengths behind California Flag in the Green Flash (BSF 87), being pulled up in an OC-80, and then being steadied in his last in November at Hollywood. He has never been a great works horse, until he hit the new track at Santa Anita where he ripped off a :47/1 (2/26) and a 1:11/4 (1/4). He is 5-2-2-0 on turf at a mile, Smith takes the mount, and there are no killers in this field.
Race 7 - #1 Pincelada - she is exhibit "A" on why I have a problem betting horses that Jim Cassidy trains; no rhyme or reason as to where she is placed. She made her debut at Santa Anita on the main track and was caught very late by Jaws N Paws. Next out, also at SA she drilled them, winning her maiden race by 3.5 lengths and scoring an 81. In her N1X at Hollywood she stayed close up and fought her way to the front in the shadow of the wire. So in her first three races, all on the main track, she was 3-2-1-0 with ascending speed figs of 78-81-89. So where next? Turf. Of course, she was a monster on the main track so let's go green - she ran four turf races and absolutely sucked. They tried her again on the main track at Hollywood in November at 6.5F in an N2X and she led until the last 50 yards and was beaten by 2.5 lengths. She is now trying dirt for the first time, has works of :34/1 and :58/4 and is back to 6F. Espinoza returns, the rail will be a plus for her and she could burn these to the ground from the first step. There is a fair amount of speed here, but she runs 21.70/44.90 type early fractions and I don't think anyone can run with her early.
This is only the third card I have capped off the layoff, so it is entirely possible I can be out to lunch, but...
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HG 219
1. Black Scorpion - Nice score vs lesser. Class test.
2. Oil Man - May want longer. Needs best.
3. Reb - Nice works for long l/o return. May need one.
4. Baltimore Bob - Just missed last. great record @ dist. Fits.
5. Rogue Victory - 2nd race off l/o. Likes track.
6. Sr. Henry - May inherent lead. Wheels right back. Just 1-15 T.
7. Lucas Brady - Hasn't shown much on grass. Outsider.
8. Calimonco - Last two below par. Improvement needed.
9. Bangalore Gold - Needs clean break. Best late kick.
Despite the lack of pace, Bangalore Gold is the one to fear most. I'll key him on top of my tri with Baltimore Bob in the second spot.
$25 Trifecta 9/4/1,3,5,6
Best of luck to all.
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SR Vegas,
Copied the website. Yours had a few more trainer web sites than Ned's, + plus track website PP's. Cool! Thanks.
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HG 219
Looks like a tough race with no pace, so I'm expecting five or six noses on the wire in a blanket finish.
Out of the scrum, I'll take #4 Baltimore Bob on top. He seems to be able to get it done with a slow pace and runs well first off a layoff.
Out of the others, #5 Rogue Victory and #9 Bangalore Gold seem to be others that are able to close well.
I'm also intrigued by #7 Lucas Brady who seems to get a piece of the action as well.
$70 W #4
$10 Ex 4 / 5,7,9
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Dan,
Thanks for the comments on Joey P. Yes, he's truly one of the "gallant geldings" that the fans love and root for. Plus, he's from Jersey and who from there doesn't have a friend named "Joey P"?
Do you know if Waiting for Sonny is owned by George and Lori Hall? They are relatively new owners and have linked up for some success with Kelly Breen. Atomic Rain (sold to Dubai and never heard from again) was one of the prettiest horses I 've ever seen in the paddock at Monmouth.
My palms are sweating in advance of Dialed In's debut in 2011!
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HG
its a very nice race, but lacks in any speed.. I like five horses but cant play them all..Black Scorpion goes up in class but likes the distance and has run one of its top numbers last time out. Baltimore Bob has back class and loves the distance with five wins out of seven tries.. Rogue Victory loves the track but likes to come from the clouds.. Sr Henry, the earnings leader but dont like to win but ran a big race in last off a long layoff...Bangalore Gold, two big races in the states but also loves to come from the clouds...
15 ex box 4/5/6
5 ex 4/5-6
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HG 219
$100 win #5 Rogue Victory
Rogue Victory makes his second start of the meet and has won on a yielding turf course. Many of his competitors are coming into the race off a layoff.
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HG GP Turf
Key Horses:
#9-Bangladore Gold-seems to relish the softer turf, so key on top
#3-Reb-coming back off a long layoff, but if he fires, should lay waste to these
Contenders:
#4-Baltimore Bob-don't know much about the trainer, but previous turf efforts look strong, and having Julien in the irons doesn't hurt
#5-Rogue Victory-should come flying late, with the 9.
#6 Sr. Henry-should be ITM
#7-Lucas Brady-longshot play here, Lopez has been hot, and most "in-form" horse here
$7 TRI (3,9/3,9/4,5,6,7)
$5 TRI (3,9/4,5,6,7/3,9)
$4 TRI (3/9/4,5,6,7)
GL All.
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HG 219
#4 Baltimore Bob may have more class points than the others. #3 Reb strictly stretch runner, layoff does not inspire. #9 Bangalore Gold (IRE) doesn't jump off the page except for light resume in USA broke late both times (top 91 bsf). #6 Sr. Henry always thereabouts and love the quick back after wide run at 9f - can set pace if #1 Black Scorpion takes back like in most recent a win at CRC (9-2). #7 Lucas Brady was close 4th in a stakes here a year ago at 74-1.
#8 Calimanco should contribute to pace. #5 Rogue Victory can't be counted out. So it's down to #2 Oil Man (IRE) which has been on my watch list over a year and a half without doing anything. One last kick at the "oil" can.
Wager:
2 w 4 3 9 w all $21
4 3 9 w 2 w all $21
4 3 9 w all w 2 $21
2 3 4 9 bx $24
349/ 349/ 2349 $12
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HG219 *Revision
$4 Superfectas
5,9 / 5, 6,9 / 4,6,9 / 1,3,4,8,9 =$50
5,9 / 5, 6,9 / 1,3,4,8,9 / 4,6,9 =$50
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HG thoughts for a January morning:
Sometimes having one race to look at for 3 days just makes me overthink the whole dang thing.
i.e., yesterday at TP I was just playing for kicks, and hadn't scoped out the races beforehand. I noticed a horse that was 34-4-0-6. Obviously not afraid to hit the board, with almost a third of his finishes winning or showing. Was running in a "marathon" with one obvious speed horse.
yes, you know what happened... they ran 1-2 around the track, pulled away from the field by 10, and keyed a $135 tri with logical closer.
Anyway, my initial thought here was that no horse would surprise me greatly with a victory, and that perhaps when the race nears post time one horse will be relatively forgotten about and will be an appropriate price for a stab.
I initially liked the 1 and 4, the 5 looked like an honest race horse, the 6 might have a clear pace advantage, the 3 the obvious class, and the 9 the surprise package who along with the 3 is most likely to run off and win by 5.
The 2 and 8 seemed the most likely no-winners, and the 7 was just the mystery horse.
On further thought breakdown:
#1 Obvious trier who doesn't mind winning, good at distance, adequate at track, nice post.
#2 After two races together with #3 in '09 hasn't accomplished much, no reason to think he's back to his G3 winning ways today.
#3 Clearly the class of the field, with the G2 win and average earnings per start. Not sure if JL jumped ship for the #4 or was pushed, but at his best would win this race.
#4 Distance lover is another honest racehorse. Nice jockey upgrade, no reason to think he won't run well again today.
#5 1/2 almost 50% of races is a good thing, also likes track and distance, jockey has done well with him.
#6 Has won one race each on dry dirt, wet dirt, synth and grass. Obviously versatile, might have an easy lead, might not matter.
#7 5 wins on dirt, only non-turf winner in the bunch. Another pilot upgrade, maybe even more important here. Aggressive ride could have in right place at right time.
#8 Another hit the board type, not sure if the squishy turf will be his cup of tea.
#9 Clement production beat 24 horses the last time he won, incidentally at this distance. No knocks for two US starts. Will need to work out trip.
I have serious reservations about the ml 1st and 2nd choices, so if I also toss the 2 least likely winners, I'm left with 5 horses with theoretically projected prices of 5,6,6,8 and15-1.
As I have no strong opinion, I'll throw in some hg tries, but this is not a race I'd choose to play.
$25 tri 1,4/8/5,6
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I'm favoring runners who are away from the rail. Let's see if there is an outside bias.
$1 trifecta 8,9 w/ 1,2,5,7,8,9 w/ 1,2,5,7,8,9. ($60)
$20 exacta box 8,9 ($40)
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HG
The five and six are talented, fit horses with the right style for this race.
$5 tri: 5,6/5,6/4,7,8,9
$5 tri: 5,6/4,7,8,9/5,6
$10 tri: 5,6/5,6/9
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HG 1-20-11
This race looks void of any speed I will gamble that Kent D. and Calimonco can gain control from the beginning and hopefully be there at the end.
$20 ice cold exacta 8/9
$80 win 8
Brandon
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HG
SR Henry is coming back quick and will be tough to catch, but Bangadore Gold has a big shot closing late - he likely gets up despite breaking slow.
l$100 EX 9/6
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HG 219
first time starter, so here goes: $50 ex box 4&5. Baltimore Bob solid 1 for 2 at GS and 5 for 7 at distance. #5 has 3 wins 1 second at GS and 3,3 for 12 at distance.
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Happy Thursday all...
Notes from Wednesday:
Nice little profit at GP with my wager on Harrods Creek. Much the best and lucky to get a return of +960 on the bet. Nice to see them run away and hide by 5!!!
Bridge Jumper Alert!!
I am mad that I missed this one. Short day at Parx Racing. They were all in on the #7 Bold Attitude. With a small $8,972 out of $11,422 wagered to show on this monster, the #7 ran 5th. Race #2.
Prices:
2. $11.20 $5.60 $9.80
4. $18.40 $31.80
3. $28.80
Missed it and it payed well. I hope that your watching Mickey!!!
TB Couple of big shooter's looking for 5%.
Race #5 #1 Bellamy's Boss $41,812 / $49,069 Won and paid $2.10.
Race #10 #5 Part'n Parcel $36,259 / $45,501 Won and paid $2.10.
People must have money to burn!!!!!! Love that 5%. Better than anything else at this time!!!
HG 219
#10 Headache is MTO and is OUT!!!!! Turf is FIRM!!!!!
1-9 will go.
I like the #6 with the Jockey / trainer combo. Big closing kick's with many here. The #9 will be bet down and will be closing like a freight train. Like a few others to close. #3, #4, #5, #7.
Play $25 Straight Tri's!!!
#6 / #9 / #3, #4, #5, #7.
= $100
My real $$ will be on the #6.
I will wager $400 Win / Place on Sr. Henry. Will be charging late for the $$$.
Good Luck today to all players!!! Thanks for the shout out Blackstone. Hope to keep moving forward.
Whackymacky Out!!!
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Good race with not a lot of speed in the front end- I lide the 4 & 5 having first run with the 9 having the best closing kick, but from the rear- the 2 &6 are the odd ones to fill out my super.
$6 Super 4,5/ 4,5,9/ 2,4,5,9/ 2,4,5,6,9--$96
$4 tri 9/2/4
The best laid plans could be laid to waste if the #6 shows his previous speed before the Dutrow claim and goes wire to wire.
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HG 219:
This is a very competitive field with Beyer figures that would indicate a blanket finish. All of the connections and horses have achieved at a success rate over 10%.
The angle I will employ to find HG success is a blazing stretch run in the prior start. The 9-Bangalore Gold figures as one of these late runners. However, his 3rd off layoff/3rd U.S. start for Clement is such an obvious angle that I expect him to take too much money in this evenly matched field without Dominguez.
The 5-Rogue Victory can, usually, be relied upon to run late at this distance. Especially so in his last with a final ¼ that was well under 24 seconds. The 6-Sr. Henry finished his last 1/8” in 11 and change. He also returns from a Saturday start and this quick turnaround has been a positive for Dutrow and others.
$10 Exacta Box 5-6 = $20
$5 Exacta 5, 6 with all = $80
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4- First and second by a nose following claims in a stakes and $100k OC. Trainer has a good percentage with first time claims, albeit from a small sample. Granted these are cute angle plays, but BALTIMORE BOB has enough 90 BSFs to be competitive here. Five of seven at the distance anyone?
5- Castellano is riding well on the turf course, where he has 6 of his 7 wins this year. He also has two seconds and a third on ROGUE VICTORY.
6- SR. HENRY is back after 4 days... Dutrow must have a reason; the angle has clearly worked. Two best BSFs (for this horse and this race) came at Gulfstream, with one on the turf. Has been dropping steadily since the claim, and the 62k/n2x to current 80k/n3x could be a sneaky way to keep dropping.
4, 5, and 6 all seem viable contenders, as does 9, who I will try to beat assuming 5/2. The 3 is intriguing, but I'm going to leave it alone for now...
$20 - TRI.BOX - 4,5,6
$30 - WIN - 6
$10 - WIN - 5
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Whacky,
Always great to see someone bomb a horse and win as you did at Gulfstream yesterday. I have a question for you. Have you ever considered wheeling your selection on top when you just wager to win? With the scratches in the race you wagered on, a $100.00 exacta wheel would have cost you $700.00 and returned $2,000.00 as the exacta paid a tad over $40.00. Think the $800.00 to win with the winner paying 4-5 got you back around $1,520.00. Of course you would need the exacta to pay over $25.00 but just thinking out loud on the best way to maximize a large bet on a horse that would be 2-1 or less.
Interested to hear your thoughts.
Thanks
BEBC
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HG- $50 EX Box 6-7
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Chicago gerry
Thanks for the comments on the FormBlog HOY Contest. I had fun with it, and I hope a few others did as well. The actual vote of 128 surprised me, I guess. I thought Blame would win in a close vote. This is kind of funny: it ended up that our HOY vote on FormBlog wasn't too far off in predicting the real vote. Our extrapolated numbers would have had Zenyatta winning with a vote count of 134-her actual vote was 128, of course. So maybe we as a group are kind of mainstream after all.
Meathead01
I goofed-I was thinking your horse-Uncle Sam-won a $100,000 race, in which case you would have to put the $60,000 winners 'share into the IMS Pot. But it was Keith L.'s horse-Tapitzar who won the race. Since Keith is already in the IMs, he knows he owes us the $60,000. Now I've heard he's skipped. Rats. Happens every time.
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C
The best deal available to me, along with others, is the PH offer of 100 forms for $100-or $150 for the enhanced version. They offer it from February 1st through January 31st. Is this similar to what you pay for the forms and repalys? I realize, of course, that the definition of an online form is one track equals one form, so if one were playing three tracks, then the cost, obviously, would be $3. Without the PH deal (PH is free to join), the online versions are very expensive.
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Morning all...
Well, 6 inches of snow, then ice covered the roads to make an ice rink of everything, then 2 inches of rain to wash it all away. What a fun time here in the North East. Just makes you want to jump right out of bed and get on with your day.......
C
Sorry that Brady and the Pats couldn't close out your Parlay in Vegas. That would have made the flight home nice and easy. I cashed on the Pats since they clobbered the Lions on Turkey Day. I went 5-2 with them to close out the year. My off-shore people offered me a free trip down to Antigua. I might go, but it is tough with 2 little ones. I think that the television and the NFL people want GB and the Jets in the Super Bowl. Chicago is dull and I am sick and tired of Big Ben and the Steelers. We shall see. Good luck this weekend.
Mike A
I saw that 1 1/2 mile race at GP today. That should be a hum dinger. I will look that one over and look for that price horse if it shows. Good Luck.
Good luck to all this week. Let's get back to picking winner's and keeping this industry in business.
Whackymacky Out!!!
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Whacky
I am very glad you hit the 8th at GP on Harrods Creek. You bet it large and for good reason. But, for me at least, 4-5 is a tough price to take when you know that going into the bet. Sometimes we all get surprised when the odds drop on something we like and have already bet, but it sounds like you knew what was coming when you made the bet. I am not being critical, and I really am happy you cashed. I don't see you doing it that often, so I'm glad it worked. Keep it up my man.
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KYL Syndicate "2011 Wagers"
Gambling Bankroll $5000 : Current Balance $4820 : Thursday Wagers $400
Prior week wagers recap
Monday January 17 (180)
Painful as I got the exact trip I hoped for in race 1 at Aqueduct with J J's Prophet committed to the early lead, with the vulnerable favorite chasing and fading, and the two other horses I like running well late. Unfortunately J J's Prophet at 5-1 saw Good Karma too late and tried to re-rally but fell short by a neck. NEED TO BOX. As for the other wager, Lagniappe, can be wagered back at big odds as Rivera had Lagniappe situated dead last for some unknown reason, and she made a big middle move to range up into contention approaching the stretch but flattened out late. This is not Belmont Park where sweeping turns helps horses from off the pace and in addition, if you are trailing the field, stay on the rail and don't be running four wide which is what Rivera did with Lagniappe.
Thursday January 20
Aqueduct
Race 6: Miss Dolan's Rose
Miss Dolan's Rose ran primarily in turf sprint races and found an unexpected new home when rain forced a switch to the main track at the one mile distance. Showing unexpected speed, the mare ran three across for the first part of the race before opening up and holding on to win at long odds. Last out she once again found herself on dirt as the race was rained off the turf and she showed good early speed once again but tired late. The morning line second choice, the 8 faced better in her two start, showing speed two back but that was a race where no one wanted the early lead. As such, unless the outside horses are gunned out for the lead, Amaro and Miss Dolan's Rose will hopefully find themselves on a easy early lead and take this field wire to wire. The morning line favorite is the obvious one to beat but off the pace style has resulted in 7 placings in 13 starts and once again, hope she runs late for second.
130 dollar gamble: 20 Win 2 ; 15 Exacta Box 2-1 ; 5 Triple 2/1/4-6 ; 5 Triple 2/4-6/1 ; 5 Super 2/1/4-6/4-6 ; 10 Pick 4 2/6/1-4/5 ; 10 Pick 4 2/6/4/5 ; 20 Double 2/6
Race 7: My Sire's Fire
My Sire's Fire showed extreme early speed last out opening up on the field early but got caught late. Two back, My Sire's Fire dueled on the lead but this was after having a very awkward start, rushed up to duel two wide and faded. The rail horse, Bella Lady is the morning line favorite after winning impressively first out sprinting but ran poorly when stretched out in distance. Hopefully the public will back her as the favorite as I don't like her in here, with no workouts since her last start, cuts back in distance and in her maiden win, she broke on top, was passed on the backstretch and re-rallied. I don't like speed chasing speed and to me, My Sire's Fire is much faster early and will take them wire to wire. Will go for a couple of long shots to pass Bella Lady for the exotics.
150 dollar gamble: 40 Win 6 ; 2 Triple 6/1A-2-8 ; 4 Triple 6/8/1A-2 ; 2 Super 6/1A-2-8 ; 4 Super 6/8/1A-2 ; 10 Exacta 6/1A-2-8 ; 20 Pick 3 6/1-4/5 : (void win and pick 3 wager if the 2 wins race 6)
Race 9: Good To Be Me
Gambling on maiden races is not the smartest thing to do especially when backing a 0 for 12 maiden but Good To Be Me appears to have this field at his mercy. Has good early speed but last out was asked to rate and found himself running between horses when finishing third in a strong maiden race. No doubt Ramon on Sully's Landing will try and take the field wire to wire, but needs to be asked early to establish the lead at a distance he has never ran in, whereas Alvarado will be perfectly situated to take over and win easily as the likely odds on favorite.
120 dollar gamble: 40 Win 2 (void win wager if alive in pick 3 or pick 4); 10 Exacta 2/9-1 ; 5 Triple 2/9-1 ; 10 Triple 2/9/1-8 ; 5 Super 2/9/1/8-10 ; 5 Super 2/9/1-8
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Very difficult HG race. My picks are:
#1 Black Scorpion - In a paceless race, can take advantage of his rail post and be at or near the lead from the start.
#6 Sr. Henry - With Johnny V. up, he can be the speed of the speed.
Play:
$50 Exacta Box 1-6.
Tx.
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They didn't do a Peppers Pride version after getting stuck with all of the Easy Goer stuff back in the 80's...
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Keep a eye on PEDIGREE , when saddled with a superior yardage diploma can OVERCOME better byers .
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No love for the 9, Bangalore Gold. His two US races consisted of very troubled trips and excellent closing bursts. I admit that his preference to sit in the gate, Euro-style, is the main cause of his trouble as he spots the field several lengths. I also admit that I need Alan Garcia to avoid trouble better than Ramon Dominguez. On the plus side, Clemente is an excellent trainer and his Beyer's are very competitive. If he is this dissed at the window as he is in HG219, I'll have to play him to win.
The 5, Rogue Victory, also got stuck heading out last time. Usually he is close to the lead and I expect this to happen at Gulfstream. I look for him to be pressing the pace and having a wide open first run.
I think the 9 overtakes the 5 at the wire.
$100 Exacta 9/5
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HG 219
$100 straight exacta 4-3
Based on Brisnet stats, the best posts are towards the inside and there is a pronounced bias for horses with a sustained (e.g. closing) running style. Only 17% of horses have been able to go wire-to-wire on the turf course. In the last week, only 13% of horses were able to wire the field.
I'm interested in two horses: Reb (no. 3) and Baltimore Bob (no. 4). Reb hasn't raced since a disappointing effort in the Grade 1 Secretariat on August 9th of 2009. The layoff is a real concern, especially since the trainer hasn't shown much success with horses racing for the first time after a prolonged absence. However, Reb has put up some impressive workouts, including back-to-back bullets. My other selection is Baltimore Bob, who appears poised to put up a decent effort. He also has demonstrated some solid works, including a bullet work on Dec 31st. Furthermore, he may have an affinity for GP's turf course. He has raced at GP twice and won once. In his winning effort, he achieved his lifetime best Beyer (97). And based on his recent races, it's not inconceivable that he might duplicate this effort.
Jeffrey
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I think there is a class edge by three horses in this race, 5,6 and 9.
I don't like the current form trainer Arnold so i'll be playing against Reb (3)
There is absolutely no pace in this race... I think number 1 from the rail will try to get the lead and gulfstream turf is favoring speed.
So i'll be using this four horses and number 7 with and inspired paco lopez in the saddle in a superfecta.
My bet:
$1 superfecta 1,5,6,9/1,5,6,9,7/1,5,6,9,7/1,5,6,9,7 total $96
$1 trifecta 5,6/1,5,6/1,5,6 $4
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HG 219 .. With the very short run-up to the first turn, methinks KD will move the 8 quickly to get position and try to control the pace with something left for the drive. The pick: .. $4.00 tri/key: 8w/ 2-5-6-9 = $48 .. $.40 spr/box: 2-5-6-8-9 = $48 .. $4.00 to win on #8 .. Total: $100 .. CHAAZZ
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Tencent..............
I've run the HG race in my head......talked it over with a friend........I like to talk a race through........after talking I'm changing my HG wager. I don't like to do that, but there it is. Something I said to Chicago Gerry changed my mind.
HG 219 100.00 exacta 7-5........yes it isn't a typo. Mike A
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Good morning, all.....
Although I'm not going to participate in this week's HG, it's got one of my fave horses, #5, Rogue Victory, the ever popular Weaver on the weeds. The reason I'd put him on top is the nice streak the jock has had in riding Weavers at GP. For those who want to see what I mean, check out the J/T combo in today's 7th at GP, lucky number 7 is Gloomy I'm Knot. Although on the dirt, Castellano has been the best rider on Weaver horses down there in the sunshine state.
Good luck to all HG players!
Katieattherail
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HG 219:
Not going to over-analyze this race. The 5, Rogue Victory is sitting on a winning race after his very good comeback. #6, Sr. Henry, is going to have to make his move sooner in this shorter race. Johnny V is a heady rider and will get him in the picture. #3, Reb, should get in the money on class and connections alone. Three others have license to win or do very well, but the format here demands boldness:
$50 Tri key: 5 w 3,6 w 3,6.
Good luck.
fijiking
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Chicago Gerry........
So you think I may be in trouble because we are thinking alike in then HG? Well I reckon we could look at it two ways.......one; either you're gettin good, or two; I'm slippin......Of course I'm joking. Gerry, the thing is when it comes to the HG.....if it's not a race I would bet for real, I don't put as much effort into it. I like Rogue Victory......even if the course is yielding/soft. I do like George Weaver on the quick turnaround. I also like Clements horses at Gulf, but I'm usually very cautious when it comes to NY trainers early in the meet. Remember their bread and Butter is NY come spring/summer.....winning early at Gulfstream usually isn't a priority. I usually give em one......Rogue's had his.......I am interested in how Reb comes back, he seems a nice horse. Well good luck to everyone.
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SR Vegas,
thanks for noting that Aces had a work. I expected one but forgot to check, so engrossed I've been in all the HoY writeups. It turned out as I hoped it would, but I did expect the vote to be closer. Maybe some of the vitriol across all the blogs will simmer down, finally. Ya think?
Dan - I hope Olivia Katherine Duckworth feels better now, like Mike Smith :-)
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Chicago Gerry, Ned Daly , & anyone else interested.
Here is the link I refer to for free pp's. ( I have posted this one in the past)
It may be the same trainers/owners/tracks you guys look at...just in a different format.
http://www.horse-races.net/library/links-pastperformances.htm
'son noffild'
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Sheriff Dan I.,
I had a little converstaion w/my Dad the other day..He said Tosmah was the greatest filly of all time..We both whole heartedly agree hands down on the Slewster Himself..So w/o further ado, could you kindly go into your annals of racing & find me the past performances of that hard knocking girl, Tosmah {born 1961}, the daughter of the great Tim Tam, please.. A few words of encouragement, or enlightenment would help too........I want to be a little nostalgic w/him....
Thanx in advance.........Who better to ask than you ? Right ?
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The Cat Is Out Of The Bag
p ensign/blackseabass
I looked at the entries at GGF for this coming Saturday (I didn't get the PP's yet, but will)-nine races, of course: Couton has nine mounts. Not sure I have ever seen this-I'm sure it has happened, but I just haven't noticed. Obviously the trainers and owners are all seeing the same thing and are jumping on the bandwagon. Who can blame them? I guess my reaction at the moment is to tread lightly and only focus on a few playable races (kind of what I do anyway). Nine mounts-wow. Suppose he wins all nine?
There was a long story about Couton is the local papers last weekend-now I understand his background better. Couldn't make it in France, so came here. Coudn't make it in So Cal, so came here. So we'll see.
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MKB workouts 1/19/11
Palm Meadows -turf/firm (dogs up)
Animal Kingdom - 4F 0.55:80 Breezing - Ray Manley
Hollywood Park - all weather/fast
Comma to the Top - 6F 1:14.80 Handily - Kelley Belles
MKB entries:
Aces N Kings - Sherpa
The 7F 50K Groovy Stakes at Sam Houston Park 1/22
http://www1.drf.com/static/entries/22/eHOU22.html#3
Good Luck!
________________________________________________________
Annie
...how did VQ put it one day? The Lone Ranger has his Tonto, Batman has his Robin,
& Annie the MKB Queen has her gal SR Vegas :)
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Annie and S R Vegas
I am curious about something, and I'm being serious here (not real serious, but mostly so). How in the world do you keep track of as many horses as you do-workouts, entries, results, etc.? I'm guessing that you each have 75-100 horses on your watch lists, and perhaps S R Vegas has double that amount from what she has talked about over the years (maybe you do too, Annie). This is why I'm asking-I've got 13 horses on my watch list (IMS Stable) and will be adding a few more to the stable soon, and I have six trainers on mine as well. Each day, and each week, I'm getting tons of notices on my little group-I have to download the data and put it in some kind of order so I know how to keep track of both what is going to happen, and what happens after the race as well.
What I'm asking is this-how do you keep it organized so that you don't get overwhelmed with data and maintain a sense of sanity? What steps do you follow from start to finish? Of course, with the MKB there is no real "finish", since both of you seem to keep track of everything for a couple of years.
I have enormous respect for both of you for the amount of work you do-95 % of which benefits everyone else on the Blog rather than yourselves. I guess if I had a "worst enemy", I would wish your jobs on him or her-as punishment for whatever sins he/she committed against me. My enemy would surely be too busy with data to cause me any more trouble-for sure.
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$50 Win #4-Baltimore Bob
$10 Ex box #4-Baltimore Bob and #5 Rogue Victory
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HG 219
I'll go for the class over questionable speed. REB and ROGUE VICTORY have the class by miles. With no confirmed front-runner, Oilman and Black Scorpion will need to go to the front from the inside. I do not like the #9 (bad post and Euro form is not very classy.) A mile race is considerably different than nine furlongs from a pace perspective.
Here goes:
$ 40 Win REB
$ 18 Win ROGUE VICTORY
$ 2 Exacta Box 1,2,3,5 ($24)
$ 1 Tri Part Wheel 3,5,6/3,5,6/1,2,3,5,6 ($18)
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Annie and S R Vegas
Thank you for responding. You are both amazing! I mean that. To do what you do-a lot of it manually, is very impressive. You both must have an attention to detail, good memories, and organized minds! Good for both of you. I do use spreadsheets (as you know S R Vegas), but it doesn't really help much in staying organized. Good for both of you.
meathead01
LOL-great line!
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HG Event:
Think it is going to be a blanket finish as always.....
Like the #4 here Baltimore Bob......return training efforts appear ok....has a win over the track...and looks to get last jump in the blanket.....
then....#5 Rogue Victory gets his nose down for 2nd........
so $100 exacta- 4 over the 5
good luck to all!
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Annie , Your MKB horse picking is exceptional considering how many 2yr olds there are. I'm going to be interested to compare it with the experimental free handicap . I think you might be better than those guys. Just about every MKB thats been sent out has hit the board. Bunches of wins and even a track record ! You are one sharp cookie. I can't remember ?Was it the 1st 6 or 7 that won ? Lets see raZmataZ ,tapiZar, cool city, track record guy. Who else has popped already ? Even Cane Garden Bay ran 3rd . Your a heckuva picker.
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C, I can't really squawk about Gio , but I would say that the graded stakes committee is messing things up. They always jerk stakes around from 1's to II's and that messes things up. There is no continuity. Bourbon Bay won some pretty good races that have traditionally been Gr 1 and important stakes. Grading them II and leaving the Man'o War etc. 1 is arbitrary and really not a good reflection of the quality, supposed or actual, of the horses in any given year. The San Juan Capistrano should always be called a Gr.1 as should the Man'o'War or Turf Classic. Good turf horses run in those races. I'm pretty sure all 3 of Bourbon Bays wins came in stakes that have been formerly called Gr. 1. He just beat the BC 2nd Champs Pegusus the other day (no problemo) & that was off a layoff. I think The Gr. stakes committee fouled up his chances by messing with the grades. Azeri won the Milady twice, it was called a GR. 1 both times and rightly so. The Milady or Vanity draw the best mares we have out here plus a few invaders. Of course its a Gr.1. If the Sea Hawks would have made it and won the Super Bowl they wouldn't call the Super Bowl a Gr. II next year !! When the Marlins Won the World Series nobody said the next WS was being downgraded to a Gr.III. . It doesn't make sense. You know Zardana isn't really much competition for Z, but you know she's good enough to beat RA on a given day. Life is Sweet wasn't some dog.
C, Blackstone, Pippin o7o7 I don't factor overhead into ROI for any given type of play that I make . You do have to factor it into your overall bottom line though. I've played a lot of meets daily from beginning to end at the track. I would even factor in the gas just like you do when you run a company. You have to cover the nut before you can make profit. If you do it nearly everyday you need to think in that way . If its recreation than there is nothing wrong with seeing it as incidental expenses. I wouldn't count a $100 day at a sale that I wasn't buying any horses at ,but rather having a nice day looking at baby horses & or their mares as overhead. I would count forms , admission , parking, & gas as debits though . Coffee & hot dogs I would consider on my personal dime. For me that was about an $800 bill per month. I don't know how much it would be in NY or Frisco ? The computer cuts down on overhead quite a bit ,but its not as much fun as being there. I'm just too far away to go everyday anymore or I still would .
Chicago Gerry , you should see how peaceful it is in the grandstand at the top of the stretch at SA on a weekday . LOL. There's no traffic jams here. No traffic signals for that matter. You'll bump into a stop sign every 5 or 10 miles though. Its pretty quiet around here.
Captcha Could Inounie >> You can not only nounie , you can adjectivie & verbie too.
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HG 219
$50 Exacta box 3-8
I like Reb and he likes the distance and has back class. Calimonco is repeating this mile distance and I like the pedigree a lot and the jockey/trainer combo has been a nice combo for years. Kris S. on the bottom is attractive right off the bat. I would have it all one way with Reb on top if not for the long layoff. Best of Luck...
Also, I had to wait to come back to the blog until after the Eclipse awards this year. I just didn't have it in me to fight it out all over again after the best horse didn't win the award last year, or the year before that. Zenyatta is Horse of the Year finally. Or, Zenyatta won the Horse of the Year poll. However you view it she is the one that has been recognized as a champion. After she eclipsed the record of Eclipse, the horse theses awards are named for I thought that it should be obvious to anyone that this is one of the all time greats. I think the poll regained a lot of the credibility that many felt it had lost in the last few years.
And anyone who compares Zenyatta to Pepper's Pride never found a way to make thousands of dollars off of a superhorse. Next time a superhorse comes around in 20 or 30 or 50 years maybe you can learn from this experience and take advantage of the situation.
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#6 Sir Henry could be the controlling speed in here, most likely why they're running him 5 days back here, they think he's got a real shot in this one.
#1 Black Scorpion is on is home turf in Flordia where he has run each of his races, with 4 of 7 in the exacta at a mile. Should sit a nice trip 3rd or 4th from the rail.
#9 Bangalore Gold appears to be the horse to beat off his last, but just doesn't seem like the type that's gonna get it done in competitive fields like this one. Will put him under the exacta.
$50 exacta 6 w/ 1,9 = $100
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HG 291, Gulfstream, 1mT, AOC 57k
I'm really going to swing for the fences this week with a couple long shots.......
$25. xbox #1 Black Scorpion and #5 Rogue Victory = $50.00
$9. W/P #1 & #5 = $36.00
$1. Trifecta 1/5 over 1/5 over ALL (ALL excludes #10) = $14.00
1) Black Scorpion : 7 of 15 1st or 2nd, 10 of 15 itm on turf, definitely an exotic entry, layoff shouldn't hurt
2) Oilman (IRE) : Drops in class, again, form appears off
3) Reb : Huge class drop, nice works for return
4) Baltimore Bob : If he can get out of the gate he might be there at the end
5) Rogue Victory : Quick return from last, bad start, good finish.
6) Sr. Henry : Can't say i see him being around at the end, lost to a few of these.
7) Lucas Brady : Appears slow
8) Calimonco : Form slipping?
9) Bangalore Gold (IRE) : Needs longer, not shorter
10) Headache MTO : Will use if turf goes off.... and i remember to check.
Good luck to all in the HG!!!
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Someone asked about factoring the cost of the DRF into their bottom line. I would also consider that an expense of this pasttime, just like track admission and parking. I haven't purchased the print version in a few years, but it was pretty pricey the last time I checked. I currently pay $10.50 for Deluxe Formulator with unlimited replays, which I actually do think is a fair price. However, if I were playing multiple tracks each weekend (something I never do), I might think otherwise.
VQ,
Not a Brady fan, but I still think he's the best QB out there. I'm not a big believer in the Jets. Their last 2 were "revenge" victories against hated rivals, the first of which was a 1-dimensional shell of what they were last year. Now that factor swings the other way. Unlike a lot of other betting sports, emotion is a real factor in football, imo. I'd take the Steelers and the Packers if I were forced to bet. IMO, the handwriting is already on the wall about the latter.
SRV,
Your town has changed a lot in recent years... and not for the better (or bettor). The casinos are more about nightlife than gambling now. It's hard to even find a blackjack game which pays the proper 3-2 for a natural. Most of them pay 6-5 now. When I asked the pit bosses about this, their response was "we do it because we can and people still play because they don't know any better". The Hawaiian Tropic models at the table were the only reason I was willing to get ripped off for an hour or two. File that under "entertainment expense" too. Funny how racetracks seem to follow the same strategy with takeout, yet people still play Philly Park.
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$25 Trifecta 9/1,5/1,5,6
Clement has this one ready to fire his best shot after two races in the US. If Garcia can get him to break well he might win for fun. Rail horse could get a piece of jockey hustles him to the front.
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HG 219
Nothing very clear to me here. Probably shortchanged my analysis.
Some consideration to
#5 Rogue Victory - won a 75 and 2nd last out at this effort. With a better start?
#9 Bangalore Gold is one of those Euros that I ignore to my peril. I find it very hard to judge the overseas races. Won a minor handicap at The Curragh. Might like a longer race to close into.
#4 Baltimore Bob won two minor stakes and was second in a stakes last out.
As if it were my own money
WAGER
$100 to WIN on #5
Good luck to all.
CAPTCHA - Andinic world - Ain't it just?
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Annie,
"#4 BALTIMORE BRIAN - This guy has been nice and consistent in his career, and has often shown up in stakes races. He likes to Beyer in the 90s quite often, and has been working well for his return. I don't know much about his new trainer, but Leparoux has opted to ride and I like him on the grass. It looks like he can handle some moisture in the turf as well."
That's only a so-so analysis....
I have been a wildly inconsistent handicapper in my 2 years of doing this, and I'd be lucky to even post a beyer figure at any distance.
But, I do like playing stakes races, and am following a new trainer (Mike A) to improve my game on the grass.
I'll leave the moisture comment alone...
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Zenyatta fans :
Just thought i'd throw this out there before i go look at the HG entries......
Blood Horse has a commemorative issue of Zenyatta on sale for $9.95
To bad they don't have one on Peppers Pride.... :(
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C
I have to agree that LV has changed ...it is more entertainment driven, focusing on a 20-30's demographic. Many yearn for the old days of inexpensive buffets, looser slots, and better paying table games.
Still, it seems that many still have a good time, and have the expendable cash to do so.
BTW, The weather was gorgeous this last weekend, hope you enjoyed it :)
Me, I enjoy a nice dinner on the Strip with a nice view of The Bellagio Fountains.
______________________________________________________________________________
Blackstone
re MKB
I use the DRF Horse watch (nice tool!) and I only have the current MKB horses listed ( some PGH I'm following, other newly turned 3 yos Filly and colts and horses of interest of Formblog owners) total 167 ...he-he-he
I use it as a base file...I still have notebooks with the other MKB horses from last year, and the IMS participants.
DRF is great for sending emails for the workouts, entries, results. So I see them as they happen daily.
I do keep an open draft in my emails that I use for the Tracks. I do some typing, and alot of copy and pastes from that to the DRF Formblog.
And when someone adds a horse, or changes, I just add on to the MKB list Annie originally posted, here. I did a copy and paste to an email draft of that.
One of these days, I need to learn how to use spreadsheets, or some other formatt...but for these purposes, this works for me.
________________________________________________________________________
TBTA
As you mentioned, NHC is alot of fun ...anyone going to be in town? Friday and Sat Jan 28th & 29th are the NHC contest dates. Thursday Jan 27th a casual meet and greet will be set up for any Formbloggers in town. ( prior to the NHC cocktail Party ) ...let me know!
Mike D ...are you out there? I would love to say Hello while you are here !
'cmon upoint'
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Spot play....
Wed 1-19-2011
GP Race #8
#4 Harrods Creek
#800 Win / Place
Much the best here. With all of the scratch's, this one will double my money.
Has the Jockey / Trainer combo to get it done.
Ton of scratch's today at GP.
Good Luck!!!
Whackymacky Out!!!
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HG
$70 win #7..............The Gypsy said
$10 EX 7(1--4--5)
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HG219 GP 1/20/11
#! Black Scorpion- overmatched in this having taken one year to win last although looks to get the lead early but will falter when the running starts.
#2- Oil Man- class of the race it seems ran against a couple of these and was no where nearthe money. apears to need a softer race to get it going
#3-Reb- what kinds of trouble has this guy been having away 18 months and I think this one scratches out of this race
#4-Baltimore Bob- another class horse and been getting paid regularly may get a piece of this one on the lower tier
#5- Rogue Victory- the one to beat with Castellana getting on and knows this horse. I think gets first run on the closers and gets the nod. nice tightner in last makes it hard to deny.
#6-Sr. Henry- with Velazquez up makes this one a factor although will have to give his best to beat the one on his inside. will be running late
#7- Lucas Brady- if he runs back to the january race last year he will win this one. Paco a big plus and will play a big part in the final outcome dont think 15-1 will hold maybe 6-1
#8 Calimonco Kent can read the form and sees that there is little front speed and I think he will try to steal this on the engine. has come up tiring in last two
@9- Bangalore Gold Ire.- third race off five month layoff may have him ready to fire best but I think will come up a little short again. wants longer than this.
the play-
$2 exacta box 5-7=$80.00
$2 tri cold 7-5-9= $10.00
$2 tri cold 5-7-9= $10.00
good luck all MH01
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HG219
Some interesting facts and angles coming from the Formbloggers on this race Mike A , PGM, Jeffry etc.. Dan will probably have afew incites also on the race,
#6 Sir Henry- This one is somewhat perplexing. I found PGM's stats on him interesting. Here is a
guy who won an HG race on the dirt, on 02/11/09, showing speed from the inside.
He is dropped a bit 1st race off the layoff below his claiming price in August, is raised in class
and put out for a tag. With his speed, some handicappers are going to really like the cut back in distance angle on this one. High percentage trainer with a jockey that placed in last weeks HG from the 11 post. This is a recipe for victory
Hard for me to get past the 5 day turn around though. Will have to let him beat me. I have seen too many of these types getting up for third. I may up grade him a bit though.
[]
#1 Black Scorpion- The rail has been good, and he won last out at the distance from the 8 post. He could do well in here, if he were to get the lead.
[]
#8 Calimonco- I think this one may have shown his connections something last race, which did not necessarily show up in the running line. I think the gd turf last out may have hurt his performance, and he could surprise.
[]
#3 Reb- It is always hard to know what to do with these types. Lightly raced, Grade 2 winner who is working extremely well but coming off a 17 month layoff. I guess he was a 3 year old when he won his Grade 2. I don't think is is all that superior compared to some of the others in here, and I really don't like the layoff. Maybe if he were Sheppard runner, but too much time has expired. I guess I will going him beat me.
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Off Topic:
TBTA's worst nightmare:
I have already turned down tickets to the Bears/Packers playoff game. If the Bears lose, I'll need a place to hide from my husband, three brothers and father in law. If the Bears win, I will miss out on my husband's best (or second best memory depending on whether he's lying or not that our wedding was his best day or the 1985 Bears Super Bowl) day of his life.
Then, it can only get worse: If the Bears play the Jets in Dallas, how does a woman pick between a husband and her son?
Bonus: I am assistant Den Mother at the NHC on the weekend between the playoffs and Super Bowl. Sharon rocks that roll, but I aim to be a close second. Everyone should come if they can, it is going to be an awesome time.
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HG
The 2 gets Maragh and some must needed class relief. The 9 looks tough but does he come from too far back for GP?
Wager $50 Exacta box on 2-9
Thanks Dan
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Posted by Dizzy - January 18, 2011 09:54 AM
I guess that's what an owner gets for running his horse against real competition instead of lead ponies.
Makes me want to puke.
________________________________________________________________
Bitter much?
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Chicago Gerry,
I owe you a major LOL from last thread. You sir, are the bomb!
Pippen0707,
In my previous 25 year history as a five minute ride from Monmouth, I always considered drinks, forms, food, parking and bets in the ROI. Anything less than a $100 profit, I considered a wash. Anything above, I bought dinner.
Since I've moved to Chicago, invested in an ADW, and spent considerably more money on plane fares, hotels, rental cars, etc............I don't count them anymore. Now, it is all about the fun and frolic with fellow Formbloggers. ROI = Priceless.
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HG 219
Focusing on three contenders here -- BS, BB, & BG. Each has his own strengths that yield victory today.
#1 Black Scorpion: earned Bachelor of Science racing from May to October at Calder, off track for nearly 3 months, stay in training
#4 Baltimore Bob: today's Best Buy with 5 of 7 record at this distance, hard knockin' turfer who toured 6 differents tracks in 2010, adds Leparoux
#9 Bangalore Gold: just like BeeGee's gold album, has been stayin' alive in 2 starts since arriving from UK, strong work tab suggests photo op today
Wagers:
$16 Tri: 1-4-9
$18 Tri: 1-9-4
$17 Tri: 4-1-9
$24 Tri: 9-1-4
$25 Tri: 9-4-1
And I will debut my 2011 tagline today, "Blame, the REAL 2010 Horse of the Year: Performance Endures, Popularity Fades."
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horses for courses, nice try last time, enough speed in here, Castellano gets there in time
$10 tri - 5/6,9/3,4,6,9 --- $60
in case he just misses
$5 tri - 6,9/5/1,3,4,6,9 -- $40
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HG
$50 exacta box 6-9
JUST like Oct 29th at Belmont but with no Skipadate
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HG FLA
Dutrow is super on the quick turnaround. I love it when horse's off layoffs come right back quickly.
#6 Sir Henry on top
Weaver's horse rogue victory is also turning around nearly as quickly.
#9 bangalore may need one but is strong.
#1 black Scorpion is solid and should be forwardly placed with the 6.
the bet:
$50 ex. 6-5
$30 ex. 6-9
$6 tri 6/5/1,9
$4 tri 6/9/1,5
Haven't played much since the Cup. May head to DelPark Saturday and start to get warmed up for the big 3 yr. old action.
Good luck to all.
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While the HG race is the HG race There is a grass race I like tomorrow. It's a turf Marathon for fillies and mares @ 1 1/2m. When one first looks at it the choices, Up In Lights, Silk Route, Molly Molly Molly look the part. However there is one thing most of these have in common, that two of these don't.....they're all slow. The one could be suspect with another 1/8th to go off her last where she drifted late. Silk Route I made a living off of her running second and third. I'm not sure she wants 1 1/2m. The two horses I like in here are Rare Bit and Kathern's Kitten. while not bred overall for the distance....both horses have shown the ability to close quickly when asked. The others have for the most part shown plodders speed.......but at 1 1/2m it's not the slow closer who wins. If these two can get the distance they should be able to out duel these down the lane. Both horses are 12-1 ML. For a 20.00 exacta box it's worth finding out. That is for me.....this is a new distance for all of them, it's not a race you can bet with a heck of alot of confidence.......hence the "finding out" part. I do not wish anyone else to find out with me.........Mike A
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#7 first time offered for a tag. Last race was not on turf? Should be huge price. #9 strong trainor/jock/owner combo. A clean break from outsidepost is all that this one needs. #5 steady horse. Always will give honest account of self. Seems distance, course and top jock will make him around at finish time. $10 ex box 7/9/5 20 win 20 pl on #7
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HG219:
$100 Ex 4/9. Like the 4 with some back final fractions over the probable favorite with a good turn of late foot as well. Prefer the 4 given the 9's outer post.
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HG219
#4 Baltimore Bob ..trainer stats great with 1stw/trn ..Like the switch to Leparoux
#8 Calimonco ..a bit lean on BSF (if you use them) but Mott has nice stats for routes & layoffs,
and may surprise here. I like his dam Sweet Life/ Kris S influence on dam side..
Of course, a case could be made for all of these.
$50 EX Box #4 - #8. =$100 Dan $$
Good Luck!
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HG 219
$50 Exacta Box, 5 and 6
There are no Al Khalis or Get Stormys in this race, and you could say it's a drop in class for ROGUE VICTORY, who has gotten his picture taken three times at Gulfstream on the weeds.
SR. HENRY comes back for Dutrow on short rest (a 6 for 18 proposition), and he's cashed three 3 checks on the grass since going to him. Toss the DelPark race three back.
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HG 219
Dutrow coming back in 5 days as lone speed? I'm all for it! #6 Sr. Henry appears to be lone speed, and the short turn around doesn't bother me. #4 Rogue Victory is the only one who can beat him by stalking and pouncing. I'll throw some prices underneath, but will toss the #2 & the #8 out of exotics, as I don't think that this level is the best fit for them
$3 super 6/4/1,3,5,7,9/1,3,5,7,9
$2 super 4/6/1,3,5,7,9/1,3,5,7,9
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MKB workouts 1/18/11
-Palm Meadows - dirt/fast
Blue Laser - 4F 0:50.15 - Breezing - Ned Daly
Sensational Slam - 4F 0"51.00 breezing - Caseyjeaux
Sweet Ducky - 4F 0:49.05 Breezing - Spartan Tom
-Diamomd D Ranch - dirt/muddy
Aces N Kings - 3F 0:37.00 Breezing - Sherpa
-Santa Anita - dirt/fast
J P's Gusto - 6F 1:11.80 Handily - dylbert
Jaycito - 4F 0:49.40 Handily - Dan R....a Bullet work!
Awesome Patriot - 4F 0:48.00 Handily - Annie
'rubbed acquiek'
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C,
sry about you parlays...some good handicapping there. i know your a brady fan....him and belichick r getting raked over the coals on the sport talk shows and rightly so.
as i told wacky i haven't bet a football game since he begining of the 09 season. but i would like your opinion on the jets-steelers/pack-bears.
thx
4 all u pats fans out there..remember this...dinosaur rex and the jets r going 2 b your worst nightmare in the coming years.
VQ
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Posted this on the wrong thread by mistake, so am reposting it here.
Well, Zenyatta finally won her HOY trophy. Congratulations to her and her connections. Though I was not in her camp, I can live with the results because there was no dominant candidate, nor historic campaign horse against her.
Hopefully, the hype, hysteria and rhetoric will now die down so people can discuss and compare horses without the nastiness. Honestly, it got so bad that if you merely suggested that Zenyatta might not be one of the greatest horses of all time, you were held up to public ridicule. Also, this blog became like those negative campaign ads---BLAME was a "bum", QUALITY ROAD was "quitter road", RACHAEL ALEXANDER was a "phony" or my favorite, "east coast hype" horse.
These were all terrific horses, and deserved better treatment than they got.
P.S.: Even my poor EASYGOER got bashed. He was called a "bum" and a "loser". Well, this "bum" was 14-5-1 in 20 starts against mostly grade one competition. He fully deserves to be in the hall of fame.
reply
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HG 219:
$100 W on #9, Bangalore Gold. He returns to his best distance and hopefully he won't dwell at the start again. Good trainer, good jock, not the best post, but we'll take our chances with that.
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Ned,
Your website holds about 10 more trainer PP's than the one I noted. About 30 vs. 20. I will be using the website you suggested and, *thanks for the information.* In answer to your question the website I posted, does not cost anything per-say, but has information one can purchase. I looked at it quickly, and have not checked yet, whether or not your list has every one of mine. Thanks again.
Mike A,
I think we are thinking about the same thus far on the current HG race, so that should get you worried right off.
I think if Headache does not get in off the Main Track Only list, then, unlike last week, this
race looks fairly solvable. I think it is a nice little race to handicap, which does not mean I will do any good at it.
Rhetorically, what was it about last weeks race that defeated 99% of the Formbloggers? I mean it was not as if there was no form among the runners, or some wild wide open, low class Maiden Claiming race.
The separation angles we tend look for, were kind of balancing of one another and frustrating,
in that it was difficult to hang ones hat on something.
I think this race has angles one can hang your hat on. The question is, whether or not one is right about them, in terms assigning the proper weight to them.
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Alydar & Easy,
That's an "All Points" DITTO from the last blog.........Well put........Better off sometimes chasing Parked Cars.........LOL......
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HG219...$100 ex 6/5.....$100
thx 10c
VQ
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$50 ex box 4/6. Baltimore Bob has run well coming off layoffs before and he fits well here. Dutrow's horse should be able to catch a piece.
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HG219
$4 Super
9 / 4,5 / 1,3,4,5,6 / 4,5,6 =$48
5 / 4,9 / 4 5,6 / 1,3,4,5,6 =$48
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HG 219
I'll take fitness and speed over a couple of classier types coming off the layoff, plus I like Dutrow spinning back off 5 days rest and probably at a tactical speed advantage. Also, I'll pair the 6 up in exactas with two horses that run well over the course - the 4&5.
$50 win 6
$35 exacta 6-5
$15 exacta 6-4
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#5 - 2nd off the layoff, positive ROI for Weaver. $7 tri 5/49/all
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What was the BSF for Always a Princess? Cannot believe she was under 90.
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Patrick,
Saint Liam only had one year at stud and was put down after breaking a tibia in a paddock accident. He has 87 foals (all 2007). His top earner is Havre de Grace at $873K, with 6 others above $100K.
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hg 219 -
$50 ex 4/5,9 = $100.00
gl to all
taz
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HG 219 Turfster @Gulfster ?
-I see this guy ran a big race vs. Eldaafer {BC winner this year {'10}} last year..
-Has bullet work..
-Looovveess Florida......
-Versatile as a Jack of all trades w/his placing of the race..
-Stepping up in class on the grass..Doesn't somebody here keep harping about those damn turf horses & the step ups & they run the fastest they can on Turf ?
-Well, to that, I say Catch Me...'cause I'm a SLEWSTER>>See my grandpappy in the DRF ? Seattle Slew ? Slewster's run........heeheeheeehee..Yeah !! I see the other Slewster, but I'm as close as U can get..Less dilution.......LOL>..
$100 Win> #1>>Black Scorpion>>I love that name.......
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HG
Sir Henry gate to wire?
$100 win #6
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Dan
Thank you once again for exoediting the process of getting the DRF Forms to knm, the winner of our HOY/HG Contest. Lonnie was great, as are you.
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Pippen0707
I posted this to the other thread-so now it is a double-post:
Pippen0707
Re what's in the ROi-you sound like my wife who insists I should count everything. I don't count anything other than the amount bet for a few reasons ( I know I'm rationalizing)
1.If I'm betting $500 or so on an average weekend, which is about right as an average, then I consider the cost of the DRF Online forms, with the added toner and paper, to be incidental and not worth the effort of keeping track. I don't go to the track much so I don't have those costs to consider very much at all.
2.I think of the added costs as entertainment-type costs-If I wasn't playing the horses I would be spending the disposable money on something fun-movies, golf, baseball, etc.
3.I'm too lazy to keep track.
4.Most importantly-the "overhead costs" have nothing to do qith a betting strtegy to me-I keep track of the ROI so I know how any one decision, or group of decisions, is working relative to some other decision, or batch of decisions. Wheter I add the overhead items or not will not change that decision, so, to me, the effort of keeping track simply produces nothing of value in making one decision or another.
Anyway, that's how I look at it.
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HG 219
$25 exacta's 6&9 with 1
$25 exacta's 1 with 6&9
I like 5 yo. geldings
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I have one slight beef with this year's awards... and it has nothing to do with Zenyatta or Blame.
Male Turf Horse:
Gio Ponti 199
Winchester 6
Paddy O'Prado 5
Dangerous Midge is yet another C-grade Euro who came here for the Turf and beat our best, so I admit this is a terribly weak division and understand the lukewarm support he got. But Winchester is the one that didn't get the attention he deserved. That would've been my vote. Winchester, Gio Ponti, and Paddy O'Prado each won 2 G1s, but Winchester defeated both of those in his and didn't lose to either one. Gio Ponti had a lot of runner-up efforts in big turf races this year and I guess that's what put him over the top... but he definitely looked a lot better last year. I'm not arguing the call too much, but 199-6 seems a little too lopsided to me.
Wacky,
I was in Vegas this weekend and the Pats pitiful performance cost me $2000 worth of parlays. I had the overs in GB/Atl, Chi/Sea (lucky there), NE/NYJ (even luckier there), and the Packers with the points (easy pickins)... just needed the Pats to cover. Bad move there.
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HG219
#1.........Nice win in last
#4........ A mile is his best game
#8........ Mott on the grass...overdue
The Bet....
$50 ex 4-(1-8)
Good luck to all
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HG 219 #5 Rogue Victory ran good race off layoff after bad start, loves this track.
$50 Ex 5/4-6
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#3. Long layoff but he is out of Stormy Atlantic going a mile. $100 to win.
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Best Bets
FLOWER EXCHANGE was blocked behind rivals late on the turn before rallying wide for third in her five-furlong comeback. She's stretching out a furlong to a more suitable distance, and should be closing stoutly if the pace is honest. MOUNTAIN ECHO possesses the highest recent Beyers in the field by a wide margin, which were earned in victories on the dirt at Fort Erie. Her Polyform was sporadically good, and she's liable to take this field a long way on the lead.
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