10/06/2011 5:52PM

Keeneland Babies for October 7

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Welcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll analyze every juvenile contest at the meet.

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Friday, October 7, 2011

Race 5
7 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Allowance (N2L)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $52,000

Analysis:
BET TO WIN, by Pulpit (Claiborne Farm, Kentucky) out of an unraced half-sister to Grade 3 winners Hot Novel (dam of multiple Grade 1 winner Behrens) and Legislator, swamped maidens in her career debut at Arlington Park for 2-year-old guru James DiVito.  The chestnut shows a pair of five-furlong workouts in preparation for her first run at seven furlongs and DiVito sent out Arlington juvenile maiden graduate Pal Petey to win his initial start against winners last fall at Keeneland. 
FAN OUT, by Out of Place, goes out for Wesley Ward, a high-percentage trainer that rang up a 9-27 (33%, $2.68 ROI) mark at the Keeneland spring meeting.  Fan Out was hustled hard from the gate in a recent Pennsylvania-bred allowance against males at Parx and was still grinding away at the pacesetting winner in the stretch.  She finished directly ahead of Pollard's Boy that afternoon and was flattered when that colt returned to win an entry-level allowance at Penn National with a 74 Beyer.  Fan Out should be forwardly-placed from the outside under Jeffrey Sanchez, but must try polytrack for the first time and there's no guarantee that she'll love the footing. 
READY TO UNLEASH, by More Than Ready (Vinery, Kentucky) out of juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Western Woman (14-2-2-0, 114K), is a full sister to stakes-winning turf performer Hype (29-3-8-4, 149K).  Other half-siblings include multiple stakes-winning router Modern Cowboy (15-6-3-0, 286K) and stakes-placed juvenile Tis a Man (10-1-0-2, 24K).  Well-bet in both starts, Ready to Unleash added blinkers last time and graduated on the European-like turf course at Kentucky Downs over next-out winner Grace for Grace (earned 61 Beyer on grass at Kentucky Downs).  She'll try the main track for the first time, but that good turf form may translate nicely to the polytrack.
MAIS OUI, by Grindstone (Oakhurst Thoroughbreds, Oregon), finished third in the $50,000 Opelousas Stakes on dirt at Evangeline Downs in her first start with Lasix.  She is eligible to move forward in her second race of the form cycle and is bred to appreciate the added distance.  The Opelousas winner, Culotte, has now won three of four. 
BANDED, by Bandini (Walmac Farm, Kentucky), broke poorly in her career debut at Monmouth, but rallied from off the pace to win her maiden at 16-1 odds.  Trained by the high-percentage conditioner, Steve Asmussen, Banded is out of a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 winner Lite Light.  She should get a little pace to attack in this spot and figures to appreciate the extra distance.  She will have to improve on the debut Beyer of 49, however.
PRINCESS PHOEBE, by Defer, moved forward second-time out on dirt at Saratoga against New York-breds.  Of the five horses to race since that heat, only one cracked the trifecta next-out.  She shows a bullet workout over the polytrack, but is another that needs a Beyer boost to contend for the win. 
SWEET SEVENTEEN, by Hard Spun (Darley, Kentucky) out of a stakes-winner (9-4-2-1, 190K), raced greenly in her career debut on dirt at Laurel, but was able to sweep to the lead in the stretch.  The runner-up from that race returned to place fourth in the $100,000 Maryland Million Lassie with a 52 Beyer.  Sweet Seventeen shows a bullet over the synthetic surface at Fair Hill, but must break from a difficult rail post.

Selections:
1. Bet to Win
2. Fan Out
3. Ready to Unleash

The Play:
Bet to Win - Fan Out Exacta
Bet to win - Ready to Unleash Exacta

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Race 6
7 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

Analysis:
SEVEN LIVELY SINS, by Stormy Atlantic (Hill 'N' Dale Farms, Kentucky), was a $22,000 RNA as a weanling and $70,000 RNA as a yearling.  By a sire that is 214-1416 (15%) with juvenile performers, Seven Lively Sins showed a hint of speed before racing evenly in his career debut on dirt at Saratoga.  Trainer Al Stall Jr. doesn't often make the dirt-to-synthetic move with second-time juveniles (1-2, 50%, $2.30 ROI over the past five years), but his filly, Total, graduated here several years ago after finishing second in a Saratoga debut.  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning router Jaramar Rain (23-5-1-8, 292K) and Seven Lively Sins shouldn't be too far off the early pace under Julien Leparoux.
OPTIONALITY, by More Than Ready (Vinery, Kentucky), sold for $225,000 as a yearling before being purchased for $240,000 in May.  The sire is 139-966 (14%) with juveniles and the dam was Grade 3-placed at two (5-2-2-0, 70K).  Optionality goes out for trainer Tom Proctor (4-13 at the Keeneland spring meeting), who teamed up with jockey Garrett Gomez for juvenile Emerald Gold's second-out win over polytrack at Del Mar on July 30 (improving 21 Beyer points from the debut).  Optionality attempted to rally against a gate-to-wire winner over a speed-favoring Arlington polytrack in his well-bet debut on September 5 and finished evenly along the inside.  He should benefit from that experience and figures to get some pace to run at here.
IN JEOPARDY, by Johannesburg (JBBA Shizunai Stallion Station, Japan) out of Grade 1 winner Flat Fleet Feet (23-7-9-3, 727K), is a half-brother to multiple stakes-winner Two Mile Hill (12-4-2-1, 165K).  A $70,000 yearling that resold for $50,000 in March, In Jeopardy broke poorly and then was steadied in the early portion of his career debut at Ellis Park on August 14.  He recovered quickly and tracked the pace while mired down inside.  In Jeopardy finished evenly for third in that spot and earned a good pace figure in his second start, in the slop, on September 4 (the winner of the latter race returned to finish eighth, beaten by 45 lengths, in the Kentucky Cup Juvenile on polytrack at Turfway).  In Jeopardy has yet to gain ground from the stretch call to the wire in his career, but has sneaky speed and may be in the thick of things early under an apprentice rider. The sire is 61-458 (13%) with juveniles.
SEVE, by Giant's Causeway (Ashford Stud, Kentucky), is a half-brother to multiple Grade 1 winner You (23-9-8-2, 2.1M).  The sire is 61-458 (13%) with juveniles and Seve was caught four wide around both turns two starts back at Saratoga.  In that race, he finished only three lengths behind Optimizer, a colt that returned to finish second in the Grade 2 With Anticipation Stakes and is entered in Saturday's Breeders' Futurity.  Seve may not have been comfortable when finding himself on the lead in his most recent start on turf (the third-place finisher from that race returned to win his next two, including the Grade 3 Pilgrim at Belmont) and projects for a good stalking trip on the cutback in distance. 
POLITICAL COURAGE, by Elusive Quality (Darley, Kentucky), chased to no avail over a speed-favoring track in his career debut over muddy dirt at Saratoga.  In his most recent start, a turf route at Belmont, the bay colt was very eager while racing on the outside.  His trainer, Michael Matz, has sent out some live babies this season, but Political Courage needs a Beyer boost attempting a synthetic surface for the first time.  His sire is 83-540 (15%) with juveniles.
GOLDEN TICKET, by Speightstown (Taylor Made/Winstar, Kentucky), adds Lasix after popping and stopping in his career debut on dirt at Churchill Downs back in June.  The runner-up from that race, She Digs Me, returned to win three straight (including the Grade 3 Sapling at Monmouth with an 87 Beyer) while the winner, Power World, is now multiple graded-placed and is entered in the Champagne at Belmont on Saturday.  By a sire that is 66-345 (19%) with juvenile performers, Golden Ticket has some stamina in his female family and figures up close early here.
LATE STARTER, by Suave (Vinery, Florida) out of stakes-placed Twice as Sweet (22-7-2-5, 159K), took a ton of money for his career debut on grass at Ellis Park.  He raced evenly behind Sarge Hudson, a gelding that went on to win a starter handicap on turf at Ellis with a 59 Beyer.  The sire is 23-181 (13%) with juvenile runners.
MORE ANON, by Imperialism (Get Away Farm, Florida), is a half-brother to stakes-winner C C's Pal (21-4-5-4, 316K).  The sire is 5-25 (20%) with juvenile debut runners and the unraced dam has foaled four winners from five runners (2-5 with juveniles).  The second dam is multiple stakes-winning sprinter C C's Return (32-6-5-9, 160K).  Trainer Chuck Peery is 0-5 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in synthetic sprints.
TETRADRACHM, by Badge of Silver (Airdrie Stud, Kentucky), is the first starter from route winner Igraine (10-2-4-2, 109K), a half-sister to juvenile stakes-winning turf runner Shining Hawk (25-2-4-1).  The August 2 and August 9 workouts match up with trainer Paul McGee's juvenile Pandering (finished second with a 32 Beyer in career debut in $25,000 maiden claimer at Hoosier on September 30) while the August 30 workout matches McGee's juvenile filly Dixie Carol (finished second with an 18 Beyer in career debut in $15,000 maiden claimer at Turfway on September 29).  The sire is 8-59 (14%) with juvenile debut runners.
THURSBY, by Mr. Greeley, is a half-brother to Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom (7-3-3-0, 1.9M).  By a sire that is 124-949 (13%) with juvenile runners, Thursby is out of Group 3 turf winner Dalicia (21-3-3-3, 195K).  Thursby was bet to favoritism in his career debut, but didn't run a step, trailing the 12-horse field throughout.  Note that the fourth-finisher from that race returned to graduate on dirt with 77 Beyer.  Considering the pedigree, it's too early to abandon a horse like Thursby.  Obviously, he must do better.
BEER GARDEN, by Tapit (Gainesway, Kentucky), is a half-brother to Grade 3-placed Out At Night (18-4-3-1, 141K).  The sire is 21-168 (13%) with juvenile debut runners and the dam was a sprint winner (7-1-2-1, 28K) that has foaled four winners from five runners (0-1 with juveniles).  The dam is a half-sister to Grade 2 winner Sword Blade, multiple stakes-placed Yours Or Mine, Grade 3-placed Better As a Memory, Grade 2-placed sprinter Gooni Goo Hoo, and juvenile Grade 2 sprint winner Ramblin Guy.  The September 23 workout matches trainer Steve Asmussen's juvenile Jaypeezee (finished tenth with a 23 Beyer in career debut in a Hoosier maiden special weight on October 4.  Asmussen is 1-29 (3%, $0.22 ROI) over the past two years with juvenile debut runners in synthetic maiden special weight sprints. 

Selections:
1. Seven Lively Sins
2. Optionality
3. In Jeopardy

The Play:
Seven Lively Sins - Optionality Exacta
Seven Lively Sins - In Jeopardy Exacta

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Race 9
1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack)
Darley Alcibiades Stakes (G1)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $400,000

Analysis:
TU ENDIE WEI, by Johar (Mill Ridge Farm, Kentucky), is a half-sister to multiple Grade 3 winner Biofuel (13-6-1-2, 781K).  Perfect from two polytrack sprints in Canada, Tu Endie Wei is bred for more distance (sire dead-heated for the win in the 12-furlong Breeders' Cup Turf).  After taking advantage of a wicked pace to run down the speeds in her career debut at five furlongs, Tu Endie Wei was more forwardly-placed in the Ontario Debutante on August 13.  She battled for the lead while down inside before professionally allowing her rider to ease her back, and to the outside, of the pacesetter.  Tu Endie Wei hopped back to her left lead when tired in the stretch, but outfinished a sharp Northern Passion (next-out winner of the Grade 3 Natalma Stakes on grass with an 85 Beyer). 
EGG DROP, by Alphabet Soup (Adena Springs Standing at McMahon of Saratoga Thoroughbreds, New York) out of a full sister to multiple stakes-winner Redoubled Miss, showed good speed in her career debut over the Del Mar polytrack.  She sparred up front before outfinishing next-out graduate Contested (88 Beyer when breaking maiden) and her pedigree indicates that she'll appreciate today's extra distance.  It isn't easy to successfully stretch out three furlongs while tackling winners for the first time, but Egg Drop's debut showed promise and she should be up close to the leaders when the real running begins.
ON FIRE BABY, by Smoke Glacken (Gaineway Farm, Kentucky) out of stakes-winner Ornate (29-7-4-3), is a half-sister to Grade 2 winner High Heels (17-3-5-4, 484K) and stakes-winning router French Kiss (35-4-5-5, 284K).  Mired on the also-eligible list, On Fire Baby would break from a difficult outside post for her first try past 5 1/2 furlongs and could be forced wide around both turns.  She looked good in her debut win at Ellis Park, however, receiving a 78 Beyer when four lengths clear of runner-up Rusticana (earned 67 Beyer winning next-out at Ellis before finishing sixth in the $100,000 Kentucky Cup Juvenile Fillies over the Turfway polytrack). 
FROLIC'S REVENGE, by Vindication out of multiple stakes-winning router Stormy Frolic (31-6-4-3, 360K), has already passed the two-turn test, winning a stake going eight furlongs at Calder on August 27.  A filly with good tactical speed, Frolic's Revenge may attempt to stalk and pounce from the second flight, but must prove herself over the synthetic surface.
CHEERLEADER, by Flashy Bull (Airdrie Stud, Kentucky) out of a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Brush Over and multiple Grade 3-placed sprinter Brushed On, was an extremely impressive debut winner on dirt at Hoosier Park on August 17.  She won off by over six lengths, received a 76 Beyer, and was flattered when three of her vanquished foes returned to graduate next-out.  Cheerleader was the highest-priced juvenile (by $100,000) at April's Fasig-Tipton Texas auction and has been given some stamina-building drills in preparation for her route debut.
STEPHANIE'S KITTEN, by Kitten's Joy (Ramsey Farm, Kentucky) out of a daughter of Grade 1 turf winner Bail Out Becky, took her maiden two back around two turns over yielding sod at Arlington.  Two horses came out of that race to win and Stephanie's Kitten was a solid third against the aforementioned Northern Passion in the Natalma in her first start against winners.  Stephanie's Kitten boasts an improving Beyer pattern, appreciates route racing and should get some pace to attack.  She figures to be running strongly late.
SWEET CAT, by Kitten's Joy (Ramsey Farm, Kentucky), goes two sprints to a route for high-percentage connections as she makes her first run on synthetic.  A half-sister to stakes-winner Loose Leaf (18-5-1-3, 231K), Sweet Cat won second-out on grass at Saratoga and gets stamina from her stout sire.  This is a big step up in class, however, from the maiden ranks to a Grade 1 race and she'll have to do it on a new surface as well.
PUTTHEBABIESDOWN, by Closing Argument (Millennium Farms, Kentucky), adds Lasix for a barn that excels with the move (3-11, 27%, $2.85 ROI over the last 90 days) and could work out a good pace-tracking, ground-saving trip from the rail under Alan Garcia.   Putthebabiesdown may have been compromised by a soft pace when finishing an even fourth in the P. G. Johnson Stakes on grass on August 31.  That was her route debut and she figured to gain conditioning from that effort.
HEART OF DESTINY, by Lion Heart (The Jockey Club of Turkey Stud Farms, Turkey) out of stakes-placed Doc's Destiny (13-4-2-2, 152K), is a half-sister to Grade 2-placed router Brother Bobby (13-3-6-1, 298K).  Heart of Destiny upset a well-regarded debut runner named Pianist in her first start going long and seems to relish route racing.  The ninth-place finisher from that Saratoga race came back to graduate on grass in a $65,000 maiden claimer with a 60 Beyer before running seventh in the Grade 3 Miss Grillo).  The "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 1 noted that Heart of Destiny gave a "very sharp effort, out in 1:11/1."
NEW WAVE, by Tale of the Cat (Ashford Stud, Kentucky), is a half-sister to Blue Grass winner General Quarters (25-4-8-2, 1.2M) and she won her only previous start over polytrack.  New Wave raced a bit greenly in her lone start around two turns (finishing ahead of My Due Process, a next-out stakes-winner sprinting on dirt at Monmouth with a 71 Beyer), but she's bred to appreciate the distance and shouldn't be too far away when the real racing begins.
ANN OF THE DANCE, by English Channel (Lane's End, Kentucky) out of a full sister to Chilean Group 1 winner Santona, tasted defeat for the first time in the Grade 3 Arlington-Washington Lassie, but she beat males two back at this distance and was running at the end of the Lassie.  She'll have to overcome a very difficult outside post position, however. 
TAVERN ON THE BAY, by Offlee Wild (Darley, Kentucky), was listed as a vet scratch on September 17.  She has potent early speed and figures to be on or near the front in her first start around two turns.  She defeated a pair of next-out winners in her maiden-breaking win at Hoosier on August 31, but is getting a stern class test here.
VENETIAN SONATA, by Bernardini (Darley, Kentucky), is a full sister to Grade 2 winner Wilburn (8-5-0-0, 586K).  The dam was a Grade 3 winner going long at two (17-2-3-5, 145K) and has also foaled Grade 2 juvenile winner Beethoven (7-3-0-2, 182K).  Venetian Sonata rallied for fourth in the Arlington-Washington Lassie and may have been compromised by a moderate-to-slow pace that day.  She should get hotter splits to run at here and looms an intriguing longshot with some upside. 
FLASHY LASSIE, by Flashy Bull (Airdrie Stud, Kentucky), won the Grade 3 Debutante sprinting at Churchill Downs two starts back.  In her most recent outing, she broke a step slow from the rail, but rallied for second behind next-out Opelousas winner Culotte (70 Beyer).  Flashy Lassie may work out a pace-tracking, ground-saving trip for high-percentage barn, but is untested over synthetics.
AND WHY NOT, by Street Cry (Darley, Kentucky) out of Grade 3-placed Alchemist (17-4-5-2, 200K), goes two sprints to a route and should appreciate the longer distance of the Alcibiades.  A runaway winner of her career debut at Saratoga, And Why Not ran into serious competition in her first start against winners in the Grade 1 Spinaway (Grace Hall, the winner of that race, made it 3-3 lifetime with a next-out 78 Beyer in the Blue Hen at Delaware).  And Why Not trains over a synthetic surface and has some upside.  She wouldn't be a surprise.

Selections: 
1. Tu Endie Wei
2. Egg Drop
3. On Fire Baby

The Play:
Tu Endie Wei to Win and Place at 4-1 odds or greater.