10/26/2011 3:46PM

Keeneland Babies for October 27

Email

Welcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll analyze every juvenile contest at the meet.

***

Honesty is the best policy.  Although I connected on a solid exacta last week, the race was switched from the turf to the polytrack.  Thus, the amount won won't be reflected in the meet record.

Back after a one-day hiatus due to Breeders' Cup work.  This has been a very tough meet, but I'll try to finish strong.  Thanks for reading!

*Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager, scheduled surface only):  36-7-15 (-57.20)

***

Thursday, October 27, 2011

***

Race
7 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

Analysis:
INDYNIABLE, a $250,000 juvenile purchase, set the pace over a closer-friendly polytrack in her career debut here on October 8.  She faltered in the stretch, but that race was slightly-faster than the other division of juvenile filly maiden special weights on the card and Indyniable now adds Lasix for excellent connections.  Note that the winner of that race could only finish eighth in an entry-level allowance race here on October 19 (55 Beyer).  Ridden today by Julien Leparoux, Indyniable may opt to rate from just off the pace while in the clear.  She is the first foal out of multiple stakes-winning router Maizelle (4-7, 158K, 0-1 sprinting).
CLEAR DANGER, a $70,000 yearling buyback pressed the pace in the slower division and gamely held for fourth at long odds.  That was her first start off a short layoff and she is eligible to improve with that race under her girth.  The first runner out of a stakes-winner (4-24, 209K, 0-3 sprinting), Clear Danger figures to be placed forwardly under Victor Lebron. The third-place finisher from the most recent start returned to run third in a maiden race on October 21 (60 Beyer). 
TWITTER PIE, a $45,000 yearling buyback, was no match for next-out winner Holiday Soiree (won entry-level optional claimer at Hoosier with 80 Beyer) in a key debut effort at Ellis Park.  She made a good late run to outfinish Indyniable in her first start over polytrack and should receive a favorable pace setup in this spot.  A daughter of stakes-placed Bird Chatter (17-6-5-0, 92K, 0-1 at two, 4-10 sprinting), Twitter Pie must be considered.
MOLLIE'S PRIZE showed improved early speed with the addition of blinkers in her second lifetime start at Ellis Park on July 16.  She had the late stretch only to be outfinished by the odds-on winner.  Only one of the five horses to return from that race cracked the trifecta next-out (top Beyer of the five was a 42).  A $4,500 weanling that was bought back for $6,000 last October, Mollie's Prize can be a solid pace factor.
LADY CANDIDATE, a $17,000 weanling buyback that was sold for $26,000 last September, is by first-crop sire Bob and John (2-30, 7%, with juvenile debut runners).  The dam was a juvenile route winner (1-12, 65K, 1-3 at two, 0-6 sprinting) and she has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 1-2 with sprinters). The third dam is juvenile stakes-winner Alexandrina (3-26, 214K, 1-4 at two, 2-11 in main track sprints). According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 8, Lady Candidate gave a "nice work, head up with Flash Mash."  Flash Mash, a sophomore filly stablemate, finished second in an 'n2x' allowance turf sprint on October 22 with a 79 Beyer.  She "went well, in front of Yourluckytohaveme," on October 14 (that one is an unraced juvenile filly).  She "was well within herself" on October 21.  Trainer Michael Stidham is 2-9 (22%, $1.73 ROI) over the past two years with juvenile debut runners in synthetic maiden special weight sprints (2-7, 29%, $2.57 ROI at Keeneland). An intriguing newcomer.
RUN FOR LOVE, a $70,000 weanling buyback that was bought back for $65,000 last July, is by first-crop sire Corinthian (3-39, 8%, with juvenile debut runners).  The dam, a $60,000 yearling, was a multiple stakes-winner (12-47, 543K, 0-1 at two, 9-32 in main track sprints) has foaled four winners from as many runners (0-2 with 2yos, 2-4 with main track sprinters). The third dam is Grade 1 route winner Top Corsage (15-53, 1.1M, 1-6 at two, won debut, 2-9 in main track sprints).  Gave a "strong gate work, out in 58.0," according to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 15.  "Looks very sharp, the better of Bluegrass Dream," was the comment for the October 21 workout.  Bluegrass Dream is a winning three-year-old filly with a top Beyer of 42.  Trainer Tevis McCauley is 0-8 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in synthetic maiden special weight sprints (0-3 at Keeneland).
SWAYTHISAWAY is by first-crop sire Scat Daddy (7-45, 16%, with juvenile debut runners).  The dam was a sprint winner (1-10, 23K, 0-3 at two, 1-9 sprinting) and she has foaled 6 winners from 9 runners (2-4 with 2yos, 3-5 with main track sprinters).  Swaythisaway is a half-sister to turf stakes-winner Mutakddim (5-17, 126K, 1-3 at two) and Grade 1-placed performer Smooth Charmer (4-12, 163K, 4-9 sprinting). The dam is a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 route winner Rhythm (6-20, 1.5M, 3-5 at two, 3-5 sprinting), Grade 2-placed router Get Lucky (5-11, 157K, 3-5 sprinting), Grade 1-placed Offbeat (3-21, 333K, 1-6 at two, 3-8 sprinting) and stakes-placed Not For Love (6-29, 178K, 1-4 at two, 3-14 sprinting). According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 7, Swaythisaway "broke behind Cojo's Channel and Galaxy Miss, easily better at the wire."  The former is an unraced juvenile while Galaxy Miss is an unraced sophomore filly.  "This filly is on the improve," warns the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 23.  Trainer Charles Lopresti is 0-6 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in synthetic maiden special weight sprints (0-5 at Keeneland). Must break well from the inside post.
LEAD ME NOT, a $34,000 yearling buyback, is by Speightstown (18-135, 13%, with juvenile debut runners).  The dam was a juvenile debut sprint winner (1-7, 32K, 1-1 at two, 1-6 in main track sprints) and she has foaled 4 winners from 4 runners (1-2 with 2yos, debut winner, 4-4 with main track sprinters).  Lead Me Not is a half-sister to stakes-placed performer Touch of Splendor (2-16, 46K, 0-3 at two, 1-7 sprinting).  The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed performer Hard Freeze (8-35, 255K, 3-5 at two, won debut, 6-26 in main track sprints) and stakes-winner Baba Bang Bang (16-73, 190K, 1-5 at two, won debut, 3-17 in main track sprints). Trainer Eric Reed is 1-27 (4%, $0.37 ROI) over the past three years with juvenile debut runners in synthetic maiden special weight sprints (0-14 at Keeneland).
DADDY'S ROSE, a $19,000 yearling buyback, is the second filly in the race by Scat Daddy.  The dam, a $42,000 yearling, was a winner (2-20, 109K, 0-4 at two, 1-11 in main track sprints) and she has foaled 1 winner from 1 runner (0-1 with 2yos, 1-1 with sprinters).  The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Shot of Gold (21-43, 515K, 0-1 at two, 6-11 in main track sprints). Like Lead Me Not, she is trained by Eric Reed, but doesn't show a published workout in the last 16 days.
CHARLOTTE'S ROSE is by Street Cry (11-110, 10%, with juvenile debut runners).  The dam, an $82,000 yearling, was a Grade 1 route winner (5-19, 1.1M, 2-4 at two, 0-1 in main track sprints) and she has foaled 0 winners from 2 runners (0-0 with 2yos, 0-2 with sprinters).  The third dam is multiple stakes-placed Savethelastdance (4-28, 204K, 2-4 at two, 1-2 in main track sprints). According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 16, Charlotte's Rose was outworked by Prateada, a juvenile debut winner for trainer Graham Motion on October 23 with a 55 Beyer.  On October 23, she was "clearly outworked" by Mountable, an unraced juvenile filly.  Motion is 6-22 (27%, $2.28 ROI) over the past two years with juvenile debut runners in synthetic maiden special weight sprints (2-10, 20%, $2.00 ROI at Keeneland). More ground the key down the road?
COOL IT BOYS, a $23,000 yearling buyback, didn't do much in his career debut at long odds on October 14.  Trainer Phillip Sims is 2-2 (100%, $34.80 ROI) over the past three years with second-time juveniles in synthetic maiden special weight sprints (1-1, 100%, $29.00 ROI at Keeneland).
GLYNISTHEMENACE, a $55,000 yearling buyback, is the second filly in the race by Speightstown.  The dam, a $25,000 weanling, was stakes-placed on turf (5-28, 247K, 0-2 at two, 0-1 in main track sprints) and she has foaled 3 winners from 5 runners (1-2 with 2yos, debut winner, 1-4 with main track sprinters).  Glynisthemenace is a half-sister to stakes-winner C P West (2-10, 383K, 1-3 at two, won debut, 1-3 in main track sprints). Trainer Eddie Kenneally is 1-2 (50%, $2.90 ROI) over the past two years with juvenile debut runners in synthetic maiden special weight sprints (1-1, 100%, $5.80 ROI) at Keeneland.

Selections:
1. Indyniable
2. Clear Danger
3. Twitter Pie

The Play:
Indyniable to Win at 9-5 odds or greater