10/21/2011 12:00PM

Keeneland Babies for October 22

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Welcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll analyze every juvenile contest at the meet.

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Saturday, October 22, 2011

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Race 2
1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack)
Maiden Claiming ($30,000)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $18,000

Analysis:
GATTINO, by turf champion Kitten's Joy out of route winner Itsallaboutmanda (16-3-0-2, 41K, 0-2 at two, 3-12 routing), gets her first opportunity to stretch out after a pair of sprints in New York.  She draws a cozy inside post position and figures to save valuable ground behind the projected moderate pace. 
BE QUIET LADY wheels back in 11 days after a late-running fourth against $50,000 maiden claimers.  Be Quiet Lady doesn't have much early speed and may need pace and race luck as he rallies from the back of the pack.
SILVER MYSTIQUE, a $15,000 yearling buyback, is out of stakes-placed turfer Skatesheba (14-1-2-1, 56K, 1-4 at two, all races going long on turf).  Trained by the high-percentage conditioner Graham Motion, Silver Mystique rallied from the back of the pack to slightly outfinish Gattino in a turf sprint at Belmont (three of the eight runners to return from that race came back to crack the trifecta next-out; top Beyer of 70). 
A NATIONALTREASURE made up some late ground in a grassy turf route at Ellis Park on August 11.  By the stout Action This Day, A Nationaltreasure won't have a problem with this distance and should appreciate today's class relief.  According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 12, A Nationaltreasure was slightly outworked by St. Maximus Gato, a 4-year-old gelding with a 94 Beyer top. A Nationaltreasure shouldn't be ignored at her projected juicy odds.
JILL GOLDEN, a full sister to stakes-winner Famous Patriot (41-6-5-10, 302K, 5-34 routing) has some angles in her favor as she takes a slight dip in class for her second start of the form cycle.  She was a bit eager coming out of the gate last time out, but may be closer to the pace this time around under Robby Albarado.  An $18,000 yearling buyback, Jill Golden's best Beyers are comparable to those of the top contenders.
NOVENTA is by Broken Vow (24-259, 9%, with juvenile debut runners). The dam won her only career start (sprinting, earned 31K) and she has foaled one runner that did not win (raced at two, did not route).  The dam is a half-sister to two-time Breeders' Cup Sprint champion Midnight Lute (13-6-3-1, 2.6M).  A $42,000 yearling buyback, Noventa must break from a tough outside post at a demanding debut distance.
MAKENZIE'S MAGIC didn't do much at this level seven days ago, but her best race to date came around two turns and her sire was a strong router.  She must avoid a wide trip from the far outside post, however.
TURA ISABEL prompted the pace in a $15,000 maiden claimer on dirt at Delaware Park on September 26.  Making her first start on a synthetic surface, Tura Isabel may attempt to steal away to a lonely lead under Jon Court.  A $6,500 weanling buyback that sold for $8,000 as a yearling, Tura Isabel was bought back for $14,000 in April.  Her speed may allow her to factor.
SIX STRONG LADY showed some promise in her first two races going long on Ellis sod, but she has only beaten one horse in her last two races.  She drops out of the maiden special weight ranks for the first time and it's possible that's just what the doctor ordered.  She exits a solid race at Kentucky Downs (the winner returned to finish fifth in the Grade 3 Jessamine with a 62 Beyer while the third-finisher came back to Beyer 70 in a runner-up effort in a $50,000 maiden claimer on turf at Keeneland). 
LADY CITRON was bet down to 9-5 for her career debut at Arlington and came with a late run to just miss at seven furlongs.  The fourth-place finisher from that race returned to graduate in a maiden special weight on dirt at Hawthorne with a 58 Beyer.  Lady Citron goes out for strong connections, but he may have been slightly-aided by a closer-friendly course in his debut and must improve off that 23 Beyer.
TROIS FAMILLE broke slowly in a maiden special weight on grass at Kentucky Downs two back, but recovered quickly to track the pace along the inside.  She was no match for the top finishers that day, but still finished ahead of Six Strong Lady.  She may not have handled dirt and may appreciate switching to polytrack, but must show a stronger late punch.
SASSY SECRETARY, a $4,500 yearling buyback, removes blinkers, but has yet to finish ahead of another horse in three prior starts.

Selections:
1. Gattino
2. Be Quiet Lady
3. Silver Mystique

The Play:
Gattino to Win at 3-1 odds or greater

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Race 5
6 1/2 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

Analysis:
WINE TIME is by Cuvee (18-131, 14%, with juvenile debut runners).  The dam was a route winner (10-2-1-0, 29K, 0-1 at two, 0-2 sprinting) and has foaled five winners from six runners (1-3 with 2yos, 2-6 with sprinters).  Wine Time is a half-brother to multiple Grade 3 sprint winner Bourbon Belle (40-16-11-5, 1.1M, 4-8 at two, 16-39 sprinting) and shows a pair of bullet workouts for low-profile barn seeking first win.  Note that Cuvee, generally a high-percentage debut sire, is only 1-35 (3%, $0.15 ROI) with all first-out runners in 2011.  Wine Time must break alertly from the intimidating inside post.
VALEDICTION is by Vindication (25-175, 14%, with juvenile debut runners).  The dam was a Grade 3 route winner (12-5-1-2, 198K, 0-2 sprinting) and has foaled one winner from one runner (a six-time winner at Italy that won at two).  A Padua Stables homebred that has been training on dirt at Churchill Downs, Valediction goes out for Steve Asmussen, a high-percentage trainer that is only 1-32 over the past two years with juvenile debut runners in synthetic maiden special weight sprints.
MY WAHOO ran into Hunt Crossing in his career debut at Saratoga and that one recently won the NATC Futurity at Monmouth with an 81 Beyer.  Last time out, My Wahoo was no match for another runaway winner, but he did finish ahead of next-out graduate Bunker's Ledge (scored in a $50,000 off-the-turf maiden claimer at Belmont with a 77 Beyer).  According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 3, My Wahoo "went nicely under control, easily better than Look Who's Ritzy."  LOok Who's Ritzy, a juvenile filly, finished twelfth with a 10 Beyer in her career debut here yesterday.  On October 13, it was noted that My Wahoo "continues to show sharp workouts, out in 1:10/4." 
THOMAS JEFFERSON was under the whip early when tracking the pace three wide in his career debut over a speed-favoring Turfway polytrack on September 24.  He made a wide bid into the stretch before flattening out in the final furlong.  Trainer Michael Maker does well second-time out, but note that none of the five runners to return from that Turfway race finished better than fifth next-out (56 Beyer top). 
MOUNT CERVIN showed good speed in his career debut at Ellis Park before giving way to the odds-on winner in the stretch.  The third-place finisher from that race returned to post a 5-0-2-0 in his subsequent races and was walked off the track here on October 15.  The dam was a multiple stakes-winning sprinter (21-5-6-3, 200K, 1-7 at two, 5-20 sprinting) and Mount Cervin may grade out as the main speed once again.
DISCUSSION CLOSED is by Closing Argument (20-102, 20%, with juvenile debut runners).  The dam was stakes-placed (20-2-6-3, 27K, 0-3 at two, 2-18 sprinting) and has foaled four winners from five runners (1-3 with juveniles, 3-5 with sprinters).  Discussion Closed is a half-brother to stakes-winner Round Trip Flight (16-3-2-4, 151K, 0-3 at two, 0-3 sprinting). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winner Blonde Fever (19-5-2-1, 122K, 3-10 sprinting) and is a full sister to juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Ima Mile High Guy (46-6-2-7, 100K, 1-4 at two, 6-39 sprinting). According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 8, Discussion Closed gave a "good work, slight edge on Whispering Wisdom."  Whispering Wisdom, a juvenile filly, finished sixth (55 Beyer) in her debut here on October 15.
BARTOW passed some tired horses after breaking from the rail in his career debut on dirt at Delaware.  That race was won by his entrymate (both went off favored at 8-5 odds) and the fifth-place finisher came back to run fourth (48 Beyer) around two turns.  Trainer Larry Jones is 0-3 over the past five years with second-time juveniles going dirt-to-synthetic in maiden special weight sprints.
PAROLED is by Flatter (15-137, 11%, with juvenile debut runners).  The dam was unplaced from two starts (0-1 sprinting) and has foaled two winners from three runners (0-2 with 2yos, 2-3 with sprinters).  Paroled is a half-brother to Grade 1 winner Hot Cha Cha (19-6-3-5, 998K, 0-1 at two, 1-3 sprinting).  He "was the better of Dreams Cut Short and Cheer N Shout, Graham up," according to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 13.  Dreams Cut Short is an unraced colt and Cheer N Shout is an unraced filly.  Apparently, James Graham worked this one, but the jockey ends up riding My Wahoo in the race.
COUNTY ARMAGH is by Irish Road, a five-time sprint winner (9-5-1-0, 128K, 3-8, 38%, with juvenile debut runners).  The dam was a route winner (2-1-0-0, 27K, unraced in main track sprints) and has foaled one winner from one runner (Arden Belle, unraced at two, became a multiple stakes-winner, 35-7-7-5, 619K, 4-12 sprinting).  The second dam was a stakes-winner (18-4-1-0, 95K, 0-1 at two, 1-3 sprinting).
PAULISTANO is by Event of the Year (6-63, 10%, with juvenile debut runners). This is the first starter from the winning dam (35-4-11-2, 53K, 0-1 at two, 3-23 in main track sprints). According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 6, Paulistano "broke slowly, but made up ground and was in front of Indio Carlos at the wire."  Indio Carlos failed to register a Beyer Speed Figure when finishing twelfth here on Thursday.  For the October 14 work, it was reported that he was a head behind Purin Cat, a Tom Proctor-trained juvenile scheduled to debut in today's sixth race.

Selections:
1. Wine Time
2. Valediction
3. My Wahoo

The Play:
Wine Time to Win and Place at 5-1 odds or greater.

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Race 6
6 1/2 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

Analysis:
GOLDEN TICKET improved drastically switching to polytrack and adding Lasix on October 7.  Making his first start since June, Golden Ticket angled wide turning for home and rallied belatedly for third over a track that seemed to favor inside speed.  He gets an intriguing rider switch to Julien Leparoux and wheels back on relatively short notice for live barn. Breaking from the outside post, he may avoid traffic trouble and could get a bit of speed to attack late.
BOOSTER ROCKET is by Bright Launch (14-91, 15%, with juvenile debut runners).  The dam was a route winner (20-2-2-2, 34K, 0-5 at two, 0-11 sprinting) that has foaled two winners from three runners (1-2 with 2yos, debut winner, 2-3 with sprinters).  Booster Rocket is a half-brother to stakes-winning juvenile What's Up Dude (38-7-6-4, 211K, 2-4 at two, won debut, 4-24 sprinting) and shows a pair of bullet workouts over the Churchill Downs Training track.
MY SILVER BEAR exits an extremely live heat and looms a strong contender in his second lifetime start.  In his debut, he faced three next-out winners (Luke of York returned to win the Anniversary Stakes with an 80 Beyer while the runner-up graduated at short odds here on Thursday with a 78 Beyer).  A $20,000 short yearling buyback that was also bought back for $12,000 last September, the New York-bred figures to threaten late under Jesus Castanon.
PLEASANT VOW pressed quick fractions in his career debut at Calder, but staggered home is final furlong in 14.49.  He took a good amount of betting activity that afternoon, switches to Garrett Gomez, and could play out as the main speed for his polytrack debut.  Note that two of the five runners to return from that Calder race were able to crack the trifecta next-out (74 Beyer top).
HENNYVILLE SLUGGER is by Henny Hughes (9-64, 14%, with juvenile debut runners).  The dam was a stakes-winner (33-5-4-5, 185K, 1-4 at two, 1-11 sprinting) that has foaled a winner from two runners (0-2 with 2yos, 1-2 with sprinters).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winner Lord's Angel (33-6-7-5, 63K, 0-2 at two, 5-23 sprinting) and stakes-winner Princessgonewest (49-6-4-5, 91K, 1-10 at two, 2-24 sprinting). A $5,000 yearling buyback Hennyville Slugger gave a "good finish, head up with A P Eli," according to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 5.  A. P. Eli, a 4-year-old gelding, finished second in a $15,000 maiden claimer here on October 16 (65 Beyer). On October 15, Hennyville Slugger gave a "very good gate effort, by himself."
CIRCUS CLOWN broke poorly from the rail in his career debut at Hoosier Park, but is certainly eligible to improve with that experience under his girth.  Trainer Walter Bindner Jr. is 1-2 (50%, 13.10 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles going dirt to synthetic in sprint races. 
WILDCAT COUNTRY took money for his debut and showed early speed before faltering in the final half-furlong.  According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 16, Wildcat Country gave a "strong gate move, without company."  He could work out a good trip stalking Pleasant Vow from close range.
ENDER KNIEVEL is by Distorted Humor (54-303, 18%, with juvenile debut runners).  The dam was a multiple stakes-winner (20-5-6-3, 525K, 2-5 at two, 2-8 sprinting) that has foaled one winner from one starter (sprint winner that went 0-1 at two).  The dam is a full sister to stakes-winner Ender's Shadow (41-8-8-5, 291K, 0-2 at two, 3-12 sprinting). This one shows quick works at Churchill Downs for Rusty Arnold.
PURINCAT is by first-crop sire Purim (0-14 with juvenile debut runners).  The dam was stakes-placed (18-5-2-3, 69K, 1-4 at two, 0-6 sprinting) and she has foaled a winner from four runners (0-2 with 2yos, 0-4 with sprinters).  Purincat is a half-brother to stakes-placed turf performer Omega Cat (22-5-2-3, 146K, 0-1 sprinting).  The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Therecomesatiger (29-8-4-5, 434K, 1-2 sprinting) and stakes-winning turf performer Tight Precision (14-5-3-2, 337K, 0-1 at two, 1-4 sprinting). According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 2, Purincat gave a "useful effort, held the edge on stablemate Oak Harbor."  Oak Harbor, a juvenile colt, finished ninth in his career debut here on October 13 (35 Beyer).  On October 8, Purincat "went nicely, the better of Godard."  Godard, a juvenile colt, finished eighth in his career debut here on October 13 (54 Beyer). On October 14, Purincat gave a "strong gate drill, head better than Paulistano, out in 58.0."  Paulistano is scheduled to debut in today's fifth race. 
TUCKERS POINT is by Birdstone (7-66, 11%, with juvenile debut runners). The dam was a sprint winner (42-6-3-6, 64K, 1-5 at two, 6-36 sprinting) that has foaled a winner from one runner (Tyrana won her only start at two en route to 11 lifetime tallies, six sprint wins and 152K in earnings). The dam is a full sister to multiple stakes-placed Big Cuz (56-4-8-5, 98K, 2-11 at two, 4-45 sprinting). According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 16, Tuckers Point gave a "good sharp effort, out in 59.0."
BASALT is by Giant's Causeway (18-204, 9%, with juvenile debut runners).  The dam was a multiple Grade 1 route winner (8-5-1-1, 658K, 1-2 at two, unraced in main track sprints) that has foaled four winners from as many runners (0-1 with juveniles, 4-4 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to multiple juvenile Grade 2 winner Future Quest (9-4-1-0, 329K, 3-4 at two, 3-7 sprinting) and is a full sister to stakes-winner Alzora (23-5-6-4, 254K, 1-3 sprinting). According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 11, Basalt was slightly outworked by unraced juvenile Z Dager. 

Selections:
1. Golden Ticket
2. Booster Rocket
3. My Silver Bear

The Play:
Golden Ticket to Win at 9-5 odds or greater

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Race 7
6 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Allowance (N1X)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $52,000

Analysis:
JUMRAA defeated a pair of next-out winners in her career debut over the Tapeta surface at Presque Isle Downs and rallied gamely along the inside when making her first start against winners in the $150,000 Presque Isle Debutante.  Jamraa galloped out nicely after that last race and gave a "fast effort, not hard ridden," according to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 14.  Jamraa may receive some class relief in this spot and should get enough pace to attack when the real running begins.
CALIFORNIA GAL looked good when winning her maiden with a 74 Beyer Speed Figure at Presque Isle on September 6.  She went after the pacesetter hard from the two-path before disdainfully dispatching of that rival turning for home.  That race hasn't come back very strong, however, and California Gal finished last in her subsequent start, the Presque Isle Debutante.  Expect her to be ridden aggressively from the inside post.
ULLAPOOL, a daughter of Grade 2-placed sprinter Grey Traffic (6-3-2-0, 134K, 3-4 sprinting), could be the quickest from the starting stalls.  A gate-to-wire winner in solid time at Belmont on July 7, Ullapool finished ahead of next-out graduate Xunlei (68 Beyer) that afternoon.  She missed the entire Saratoga season, however, and must make her first start against winners in her initial race over a synthetic surface.  According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 4, Ullapool went "together with On The Same Page and held that one safe in a brisk effort."  On the Same Page is an unraced juvenile filly.  On October 11, it was reported that Ullapool "continues to go well and was the better of Ten W Forty."  Ten W Forty is an unraced juvenile gelding.  On October 18, it was noted that Ullapool "continues to go well, the better of Shes Down With Jim," a juvenile filly that won her maiden at Arlington on June 12 with a 62 Beyer (now 1-2 lifetime). 
BLUSHING MARTHA graduated on turf in her third lifetime start.  Four of the seven runners to come back from that race returned to crack the trifecta next-out (57 Beyer top).  A daughter of stakes-winning sprinter Mighty Martha (4-3-1-0, 103K, 2-3 at two, 3-4 sprinting), Blushing Martha has some tactical speed and looks on the improve. 
GRACE ABOUNDS finished third in her career debut here on April 9 and was a $90,000 buyback at the Keeneland juvenile sale two days later.  It looks like she was purchased privately after that auction and she won her first start for her new connections.  None of the three horses to return from that race were able to crack the trifecta next-out, however (47 Beyer top), and Grace Abounds may have to sit off the pace with other speeds entered to her inside.  The dam was a stakes-winning sprinter (7-3-0-1, 56K, 1-3 at two, 3-7 sprinting) and Grace Abounds is a half-sister to Grade 1-placed router Indy Dancer (10-2-0-2, 164K, 1-1 at two, unraced sprinting) and multiple Grade 1-placed router Setsuko (16-1-6-3, 471K, 1-5 at two, 0-2 sprinting). 
YORONA won her maiden sprinting for a tag two starts back over a next-out winner (29 Beyer for $25,000 at Remington) and was overmatched when dismissed at 60-1 odds in the Grade 3 Arlington-Washington Lassie on September 10.  She should appreciate the class relief and may get the proper pace setup, but must improve a bit here. She's the first starter out of stakes-placed sprinter Sumneytown (21-6-1-2, 160K, 1-2 at two, 6-17 sprinting).
PAINTED WOMAN, the first starter out of multiple stakes-winning router Lawanda (9-2-3-0, 20K, 0-2 at two, 0-4 sprinting), faced Gypsy Robin in her career debut at the spring meeting and that one took the Sorority Stakes at Monmouth last month.  Painted Woman was a facile winner of her most recent start, a 4 1/2-furlong heat at Woodbine, but only one of the five runners to return from that race came back to crack the trifecta (46 Beyer top).  She's been away since early May so it wouldn't be too surprising if she needs a start.
GIVHANS FERRY turns back in distance following an even effort as the favorite in a turf route at Ellis Park.  Note that only one of the seven runners to come back from that race were able to crack the trifecta next-out (56 Beyer top).  Givhans Ferry should be running late under Julien Leparoux, but her best race came on dirt. She's a half-sister to stakes-winning router Tiz Now Tiz Then (19-3-4-1, 412K, 0-3 at two) and juvenile Group 3 turf winner Maoineach (7-2-0-1, 140K, 1-2 at two). According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 10, Givhans Ferry was "in hand early, easily pulled away from Azzedine in the gallop out in 1:00."  Azzedine is an unraced juvenile filly.

Selections:
1. Jumraa
2. California Gal
3. Ullapool

The Play:
Jumraa to Win at 7-2 odds or greater.