10/20/2011 3:30PM

Keeneland Babies for October 21

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Welcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll analyze every juvenile contest at the meet.

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Friday, October 21, 2011

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Race 7
About 7 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

Analysis:
RUN A RISK exits a hot turf sprint at Saratoga.  The winner of that heat, Sweet Cat, returned to finish second in the Grade 3 Jessamine Stakes with an 86 Beyer while the third-, sixth-, and seventh-finishers all came back to graduate (Beyers of 64,70, and 66, respectively).  According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 9, Run a Risk gave a "good finish, last eighth in 11/2, together with Ice Cream Silence."  That one is an unraced juvenile filly.  Run a Risk, a half-sister to multiple Grade 3 winner Rey de Cafe (13-4-3-1, 302K, 2-6 at two, 1-3 in main track sprints), stakes-winner Tricky Causeway (38-7-5-9, 333K, unraced sprinting) and Grade 3 turf winner El Crespo (24-2-6-1, 236K, 0-2 at two, 0-1 in main track sprints, must overcome a tricky inside post position, but looms a contender in this spot for trainer Rusty Arnold.
TRIBAL COUNCIL, a $200,000 yearling buyback, finished a one-paced third in her career debut at Delaware Park for Larry Jones, but the winner of that race ran off the screen and Tribal Council finished ahead of two next-out winners (53 and 52 Beyers, respectively in maiden special weights at Delaware).  By win-early sire Indian Charlie, Tribal Council is a half-sister to stakes-placed Prosico (46-12-8-8, 214K, 0-2 at two, 6-19 in main track sprints), multiple stakes-placed router Lovers Spat (12-4-1-2, 91K, 3-5 at two, 2-4 in main track sprints) and stakes-winner Diferentkindagreat (12-4-5-0, 135K, 2-4 in main track sprints).  She is also a full sibling to multiple Grade 3 winner Mr. Nightlinger (25-10-3-5, 644K, 3-8 in main track sprints).
KLONDIKE KATE may grade out the main speed under Julien Leparoux.  She has been up and on the pace in both of her career starts, but lost ground from the stretch call to the wire in each of those races.  Trainer Bill Mott has sent out some live horses this meet and Klondike Kate, a half-sister to Grade 3-placed Midnight Mischief (15-3-4-0, 171K, 0-2 in main track sprints), may appreciate the slight cutback in distance. The dam was stakes-placed on turf in England.
CALLMENANCY, a $12,000 yearling that was bought back for $100,000 in April, rallied for third in the slightly-slower division of maiden special weights for juvenile fillies here on October 8.  A half-sister to juvenile Grade 2 winner Dancinginherdreams (6-2-3-0, 227K, 2-2 at two, 1-3 in main track sprints), Callmenancy seems to be improving at the right time for trainer Ken McPeek.  She'll need some pace to run at, but figures to give a good account of herself in her second start over polytrack. 
EMMA'S ENCORE adds Lasix and removes blinkers while switching to polytrack for the first time. A $2,000 yearling, Emma's Encore contested the pace in her most recent start over the European-style turf course at Kentucky Downs.  That was a productive race as the runner-up returned to graduate with a 61 Beyer while the winner came back to finish second in an entry-level allowance over the polytrack earlier in the meet (58 Beyer).  Emma's Encore is a half-sister to stakes-placed juvenile Bertha Jo (37-6-4-8, 112K, 1-6 at two, 5-26 sprinting)
JAZIL'S SONG doesn't have much early speed and could be at the mercy of race and pace luck from the back of the pack under Edgar Prado.  She does exit a live race at Arlington on September 2 as three horses came out of that race to graduate (including Keeneland 69-Beyer winner Annie Russell).  A $19,000 yearling buyback, Jazil's Song may need a bit more distance.
INSINCERITY is by Broken Vow (24-259, 9%, with juvenile debut runners).  The dam was placed sprinting (5-0-0-1, 5K, 0-3 in main track sprints) and has foaled three winners from four runners (0-2 with 2yos, 3-4 with sprinters).  The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Crafty Star (49-10-6-4, 171K, 3-6 at two, 7-29 in main track sprints) and Grade 3 route winner Top Hit (36-7-5-6, 445K, 3-5 at two, 5-19 in main track sprints).  The barn sent out a juvenile winner here yesterday.
RED VIXEN is by first-crop sire Master Command (2-24, 8%, with juvenile debut runners).  The dam was unplaced from six starts (0-3 at two, 0-2 in main track sprints) and has foaled four winners from five runners (1-5 with juveniles, debut winner, 4-5 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 2 route winner Danzig's Beauty (8-3-2-0, 205K, 3-4 at two, won debut, 2-3 in main track sprints) and multiple stakes-placed Miss Importance (22-4-5-3, 127K, 1-3 at two, won debut, 4-18 in main track sprints).  According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 6, Red Vixen gave a "good gate effort, in front of Hard Bourbon and Under Oath."  Hard Bourbon is an unraced juvenile while Under Oath finished tenth in his career debut here on October 19 with an 18 Beyer. On October 15, Red Vixen "broke 2-3 lengths behind A P Azerin, made up ground in a good effort, was a half length behind at the wire."  A P Azerin, a juvenile filly trained by Murat Sancal, is a maiden with a 58 Beyer top. 
HEATHER'S DREAM finished second behind a runaway winner in the Ms. Indiana Stakes at Hoosier Park on October 1.  In the exacta in three of four races, Heather's Dream's best Beyer is only a 41 and she'll probably have to move forward to defeat this group in her first start over polytrack.  The dam was Grade 2-placed sprinting at two (8-1-2-3, 68K, 1-7 at two, 1-8 sprinting)
LOOK WHO'S RITZY is by First Samurai (3-48, 6%, with juvenile debut runners).  The dam was a winner (8-3-2-1, 50K, 0-1 at two, 1-4 in main track sprints) and has foaled six winners from seven runners (2-5 with 2yos, 5-7 with sprinters).  Look Who's Ritzy is a half-brother to multiple Grade 1 sprint winner Silver Wagon (25-7-3-6, 1.1M, 2-4 at two, 7-17 sprinting), multiple stakes-winner Rehoboth (75-15-15-9, 716K, 2-8 at two, 3-7 in main track sprints) and Grade 3-placed So Glitzy (22-3-2-3, 179K, 0-6 in main track sprints). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning sprinter So Charming (24-5-7-5, 124K, 4-20 in main track sprints), multiple stakes-placed So Typical (27-7-7-4, 76K, 4-10 at two, 7-16 in main track sprints), multiple stakes-winner So Dashing (41-12-6-5, 289K, 4-15 in main track sprints) and Grade 3 sprint winner Race Artist (19-6-2-4, 167K, 0-1 at two, 6-17 in main track sprints).  According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 3, Look Who's Ritzy was "easily outworked" by My Wahoo (juvenile maiden with a 65 Beyer top). 
CLARINDA is by Empire Maker (10-106, 9%, with juvenile debut runners).  The dam was a Grade 2-placed sprinter at two (19-3-4-3, 171K, 1-7 at two, won debut, 3-15 in main track sprints) and has foaled three winners from four runners (2-4 with 2yos, 3-4 with sprinters). Clarinda is a full sister to multiple stakes-winner Miss Red Delicious (27-6-2-3, 203K, 2-4 at two, 5-19 in main track sprints) and is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Dr. Diamonds Prize (11-3-3-2, 97K, 2-5 at two, all races sprinting). 
FAST BOBBI J is by first-crop sire Bob and John (2-28, 7%, with juvenile debut runners).  The dam was a multiple stakes-winner (23-7-3-8, 263K, 1-1 in main track sprints) and has foaled three winners from five runners (0-2 with 2yos, 2-4 with sprinters).  Fast Bobbi J is a half-sister to stakes-winner Renegade Cielo (66-8-7-11, 72K, 7-46 in main track sprints) and multiple Grade 3-placed Marquee Delivery (23-5-8-5, 264K, 0-1 at two, 2-5 in main track sprints).  According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 4, Fast Bobbi J "finished well, is on the improve."  Seven days later, it was noted that she "continues to show improvement." 

Selections:
1. Run a Risk
2. Tribal Council
3. Klondike Kate

The Play:
Run a Risk to Win at 5-2 odds or greater