10/19/2011 5:42PM

Keeneland Babies for October 20

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Welcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll analyze every juvenile contest at the meet.

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Thursday, October 20, 2011

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Race 1
6 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Claiming ($30,000)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $18,000

Analysis:
SINISTER TALE was easily second-best when chasing a favored gate-to-wire winner in her career debut over the Tapeta surface at Presque Isle Downs.  That winner, Tessie Flip, returned to finish fourth in an entry-level allowance at Keeneland (38 Beyer), but two of the fillies that Sinister Tale defeated in Pennsylvania, Pawn Shop Queen (58 Beyer in $30,000 maiden claimer at Turfway) and Sheza Classy Lady (beat males in maiden special weight at Thistledown with 53 Beyer), returned to graduate.  Over the past five years, trainer Bret Calhoun boasts a 64-238 (27%, $2.06 ROI) mark with second-time juveniles.  Sinister Tale is the first starter out of a stakes-placed router (18-2-2-3, 50K, 0-3 sprinting, half-sister to Grade 3 winner Wacky Patty).
SEXY SUZY, a $25,000 yearling buyback, is the first starter out of a route-winning dam (7-1-0-0, 17K, 0-2 at two, 0-4 sprinting, half-sister to multiple Grade 3 winner Purely Cozzene).  She's done little wrong in both career starts to date, completing the exacta twice, but must cut back two furlongs after losing to Pawn Shop Queen (the filly that was beaten by Sinister Tale at Presque Isle),
SONG GIRL, a $15,000 buyback as a short yearling, sold for $45,000 last year at Keeneland.  She showed solid early speed in the faster division of juvenile filly maiden special weights on dirt at Hoosier Park on August 31 and that race produced two next-out winners (the runner-up returned to take the $100,000 Kentucky Cup Juvenile Fillies at Turfway with a 59 Beyer).  Song Girl seems a nice fit in this maiden claimer and should be forwardly-placed under the hot-riding Robby Albarado.
RED ONION LADY makes her first start for a tag after failing to gain ground from the stretch call to the wire in seven maiden special weights on the Tapeta surface at Presque Isle Downs.  The sprint-winning dam (8-2-1-1, 13K, 2-7 sprinting) has foaled five starters.  None of them have reached the winner's circle.  Expect Red Onion Lady to be close to the pace in this spot.
BEKAT BEKAT, a $15,000 weanling that resold for $5,000 last September, is by Lawyer Ron (3-18, 17%, with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011) out of an unraced dam that has produced five winners from six runners (2-3 with juveniles, 2 juvenile debut winners, 5-6 with sprinters).  Bekat Bekat is a half-sister to Grade 2-placed router Smokescreen (17-4-4-4, 274K, 1-2 at two, won debut, 2-4 sprinting).  The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Platinum Punch (30-6-5-4, 142K, 0-3 at two, 5-22 sprinting) and stakes-placed router Viking Ship (19-4-4-2, 167K, 1-2 at two, won debut, unraced sprinting).
TERLINGUA'S CAUSE, a $95,000 short yearling that resold for $90,000 as a yearling, also went through the auction ring twice in 2011 ($135,000 buyback in February, sold for $30,000 in May).  Terlingua's Cause faced favored runaway winner Flor de Amelia (returned to finish second in the Brandywine Stakes at Parx with a 62 Beyer) in her career debut and now adds blinkers for high-percentage trainer Michael Pino.  By top sire Giant's Causeway, Terlingua's Cause is the first starter out of multiple stakes-placed Cajun Mistress (14-4-1-3, 149K). She has some tactical speed, switches to Julien Leparoux and is expected to give a good account of herself at this level.
LAKE MICHIGAN finished behind Song Girl in that fast maiden special weight at Hoosier, but she had some trouble that day.  Unfortunately, she drew the inside post and will have to break alertly lest she be shuffled back in the early going.  Lake Michigan is a full sister to Grade 3 route winner Pleasant Hill (8-3-3-0, 177K, 2-4 sprinting) and is a half-sister to stakes-winner Walloon (14-3-1-0, 74K, 1-4 at two, 1-6 sprinting). Lake Michigan doesn't show a published workout in over two weeks.
SUPSA is by Smoke Glacken (55-324, 17%, with juvenile debut runners) out of turf winner Kura (8-2-1-1, 45K, 0-1 sprinting), a dam that has foaled four winners from five runners (2-4 with juveniles, 1 debut winner, 4-5 with sprinters).  Supsa is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Jack Grant (35-8-3-6, 165K, 3-7 at two, won debut, 8-31 sprinting).  The second dam was Group 1-placed on turf at two in France.  Supsa doesn't show a published work in the last 15 days.
RUE SAINT HONORE is by first-crop sire Jazil (0-6 with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011) out of stakes-winning router Lake Kinneret (13-3-0-2, 86K, 0-2 sprinting), a dam that has foaled two winners from as many starters (0-1 with 2yos, 2-2 with sprinters).  This filly must avoid a wide trip from the far outside post and may appreciate a bit more distance.
DANI'S REGAL LADY sold for $5,500 as a short yearling and for $47,000 last September.  This year, she was bought back for $47,000 in March before selling for $10,000 in June.  She was bet to 7-2 for her career debut on dirt at Hoosier, but tired badly, finishing 44 lengths behind the winner.  The runner-up from that race returned to place fourth in an $80,000 maiden claimer here with a 57 Beyer.
SNICKER STAR failed to make an impression in her career debut on dirt at Ellis Park, a race that produced next-out winner Rusticana (67 Beyer in maiden special weight).  The winner of that heat came back to finish fifth in the Grade 1 Alcibiades with a 76 Beyer.  The dam was stakes-placed routing (9-2-1-0, 91K, unraced sprinting) and has foaled stakes-placed juvenile Regal Officer (69-3-7-11, 198K, 0-11 at two, 1-28 sprinting) and stakes-placed router Serious Vow (8-1-1-3, 59K, 0-3 at two, 0-1 sprinting).
CANCHERA is by first-crop sire English Channel (4-28, 14%, with juvenile debut runners) out of multiple Group 1 winner Batuka (19-8-2-5, 495K, 2-5 at two in Peru, 3-6 in main track sprints), a dam that has foaled two winners from three runners (1-2 with 2yos). This is the female family of Grade 2 turf winner Know Heights.  Canchera may do better at slightly longer distances.

Selections:
1. Sinister Tale
2. Sexy Suzy
3. Song Girl

The Play:
Sinister Tale to Win at 5-2 odds or greater

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Race 4
1 Mile (Turf)
Allowance (N2L)
2-year-olds
Purse $52,000

Analysis:
LEATHERWOOD sold for 88,000 Euros last September in Ireland and showed good speed in taking a little maiden sprint over soft ground at Listowel on September 14.  The runner-up, trained by Aidan O'Brien, returned to graduate 12 days later at Roscommon while the third-finisher came back to win his maiden next-out at Gowran Park.  By Arc winner Peintre Celebre, Leatherwood is the first starter out of Seraphine, a listed winner in Italy at one mile.  The distance additional distance should suit and Leatherwood would appreciate rain-softened ground.  If he can relax a bit in the early stages, he has a big chance as a first-time Lasix runner.
FRANCOIS won his turf debut in gate-to-wire fashion at Arlington on September 11 over next-out maiden claiming graduate Indanameofdafther (56 Beyer on dirt at Hawthorne).  In his first start against winners, he may have moved a bit prematurely before understandably tiring in the final furlong.  Francois receives an intriguing rider switch to Julien Leparoux and projects for a good stalking trip.  He's a half-brother to juvenile Grade 2-placed router Quality Council (6-2-0-1, 79K, 1-3 at two, unraced on turf).
SATURDAY LAUNCH rallied from off the pace to defeat maidens in his grass debut at Ellis Park on August 12.  Five of the seven runners to come back from that race returned to crack the trifecta, including next-out winner D' Wildcat Road (63 Beyer on grass at Ellis).  In his most recent outing, Saturday Launch may have been overmatched in the Grade 3 Arlington-Washington Futurity on polytrack.  He switches back to two-turn racing on turf and may get enough pace to properly setup his late kick.  Saturday Launch is out of multiple stakes-placed turf performer Ardum Relaunch (21-4-2-4, 169K, 2-14 on turf).
FAIRY CAT's lone victory came going five furlongs over Arlington's polytrack, but he drops in class following a pace-pressing try from a wide draw in the Arlington-Washington Futurity (speed didn't seem to do well that day at Arlington).  He's by Tale of the Cat (44-429, 10%, with first-time turfers) out of stakes-placed sprinter Manor Queen (50-11-8-8, 320K, 2-3 at two, unraced on turf, has foaled 1 turf winner from 4 grassy runners).  Fairy Cat is a half-brother to juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Infinite Justice (27-5-17, 194K, 2-3 at two, 0-4 on turf), stakes-placed sprinter Blue Sunday (16-3-2-3, 122K, 1-1 at two, unraced on turf) and stakes-winning sprinter Strummer (56-12-9-5, 409K, 2-4 at two, 0-1 on turf). Expect Fairy Cat to show speed from his inside draw, but his stamina is somewhat suspect.
GOSPEL HOUR needed seven tries to win his maiden and he did so by only a neck in a sprint at Kentucky Downs (the fourth-finisher returned to graduate on dirt at Mountaineer with a 52 Beyer).  A half-brother to Grade 3 winner Dat You Miz Blue (33-14-9-4, 806K, 3-6 at two, 1-4 on turf), Gospel Hour had trouble in his only prior turf route.  He seems on the improve, but may have to rate from just off the pace in this spot.
DANGER STORM hasn't gained ground from the stretch call to the wire in his five starts against winners and his best races have come over polytrack.  The half-brother to stakes-winner Arch Traveler (8-3-1-2, 145K, 0-1 at two, unraced on turf) will try his hooves on turf once again.  With 13 starts already under his girth, it's possible that we've already seen his best.
VEE ONE ROTATE won for a $50,000 tag on polytrack here 11 days ago despite breaking from a tough outside post going two turns.  He was one of three next-out winners to emerge from that grassy maiden special weight at Arlington on September 4 and he was rated hard to settle off the pace that day.  He seems improved with Lasix and can't be counted out for trainer Ken McPeek.
FREDDIE ONE BITE took his turf debut in gate-to-wire fashion at Kentucky Downs, but may find company if he attempts to grab the early advantage in this spot.  None of the four horses that returned from that win returned to crack the trifecta (the runner-up finished fourth, with a 64 Beyer, earlier in the meet on grass). 
PACIFIC NIGHTS is by More Than Ready (56-396, 14%, with first-time turf runners) and is the first starter out of route winner Whole Emblem (4-1-1-0, 26K, 0-2 at two, 0-3 on turf).  The dam is kin to some good dirt runners like multiple Grade 2 winner Top Secret, multiple stakes-winning sprinter Tate, stakes-winning sprinter West's Secret and stakes-placed Secret Forest (1-4 on turf, first-turf winner). Pacific Nights handled Gospel Hour on dirt at Ellis last time out, but shows a gap in his recent tab.
MIDNIGHT LEGACY won his maiden going 4 1/2 furlongs at Mountaineer in May, but didn't do much in his lone turf start to date.

Selections:
1. Leatherwood
2. Francois
3. Saturday Launch

The Play:
Leatherwood to Win and Place at 9-2 odds or greater

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Race 5
About 7 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

Analysis:
I'll take a stab with INDIO CARLOS, a first-time starter by Indian Charlie (39-252, 15%, with juvenile debut runners).  The dam was placed on turf (9-0-1-0, 7K, 0-2 at two, 0-2 sprinting) and she has foaled one winner from two runners (1-1 with juveniles, 1-2 with sprinters).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning router Pupil (10-3-6-1, 204K, 0-1 sprinting) and is a full sister to Grade 3 winner Naughty New Yorker (67-12-10-10, 1.0M, 2-6 at two, 1-7 sprinting). Bought back for $135,000 as a yearling and for $75,000 in March, Indio Carlos sold for $35,000 in June.  Indio Carlos was reportedly outworked by Paulistano, according to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 6.  That one is an unraced juvenile.  This is a win-early pedigree and should be a solid mutuel.
HAMMERS TERROR is absolutely the horse to beat for trainer Michael Stidham.  Hammered to 17-10 odds for his career debut at Arlington, he missed by a nose to Luke of York, who returned to win a $125,000 stake here with an 80 Beyer.  The ninth-finisher from that race also returned to score (63 Beyer in $25,000 maiden claimer).  Hammers Terror finished "on even terms with Thunder Harbor, good workout for both," according to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 7.  Thunder Harbor is an unraced juvenile.  A week later, Hammers Terror went "in company with Flash Mash and was not asked for effort."  Flash Mash is a three-year-old filly that finished second in the Tiffany Lass Stakes at the Fair Grounds back in February.  With that good race under his belt, Hammers Terror may be the most likely winner.
REAL LUCK is by Distorted Humor (54-303, 18%, with juvenile debut runners).  The dam was a Grade 1 winner at two (13-4-1-0, 552K, 3-5 at two, won debut, 3-8 sprinting) and Real Luck is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed sprinter Foxcaller (11-3-2-1, 102K, 2-4 at two, 3-8 sprinting) and Grade 2 winner Dream Play (6-3-1-0, 187K, 1-1 at two, 2-4 sprinting).  A $200,000 yearling purchase, Real Luck "was not asked for effort," according to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 14.  This pedigree must be respected.
BILL OF RIGHTS is a half-brother to Grade 3-placed Caroline's Gold (13-4-0-5, 156K, 1-4 at two, 2-7 sprinting) and is a full brother to multiple Grade 1 route winner Colonel John (15-6-3-1, 1.7M, 2-4 at two, 1-3 sprinting) and Grade 1-placed router Mr. Hot Stuff (23-3-2-5, 229K, 0-3 at two, 0-2 sprinting).  Bill of Rights should benefit from his career debut, a third-place finish at this trip over the Woodbine polytrack.  The fourth-place finisher from that race returned to run fourth with a 53 Beyer.
ATIGUN will sprint for the first time after a pair of two-turn efforts to begin his career.  He was no match for hot favorite Shun in his most recent appearance over polytrack and will have to improve off his 54 Beyer top if he is to topple this promising group. The runner-up from the most recent race returned to finish second with a 55 Beyer at Turfway before being pulled up and walked off the track earlier in the meet.
ADMIRAL NELSON is a full brother to multiple Grade 3-placed juvenile A.P. Reality (4-1-1-2, 97K, all races at two, unraced sprinting on the main track) out of stakes-winning juvenile Halo Reality (15-4-2-2, 205K, 3-5 at two, 1-3 sprinting). According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 2, Admiral Nelson was "was full of energy in his effort."  On October 14, he "had the edge on Harlan Showgirl, neither was asked for effort."  Harlan Showgirl is a maiden juvenile filly with a 59 Beyer top.  Admiral Nelson had the misfortune to tackle the promising Hansen (returned from that debut to win the Kentucky Cup Juvenile by 13 1/4 lengths with an 80 Beyer).  The fourth-finisher from that race also returned to win (59 Beyer at Turfway).
BRIGADE adds blinkers after tiring badly in his career debut going two turns on dirt at Delaware Park.  The third-place finisher from that race returned to graduate with a 61 Beyer.  A $360,000 yearling purchase, Brigade gave a "good finish, a little better than Charlie Cheatham," according to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 13.  Charlie Cheatum is an unraced juvenile.
NECK 'N NECK adds Lasix after finishing up the track in his career debut over sloppy dirt at Churchill Downs back in June.  Trainer Ian Wilkes does better with second-time starter than with firsters so Neck 'n Neck is a candidate for improvement.  The seventh-place finish from that Churchill race returned to graduate with a 41 Beyer at Ellis Park.  Neck 'n Neck shows steady works, but seemingly found a tough spot here.
DESERT DOC broke slowly in his career debut at Turfway Park and still had enough moxie to rally for third.  The runner-up from that race returned to graduate for a $30,000 tag here on Wednesday.  Desert Doc made his debut for a tag, takes a big step up in class and draws a tough inside post. 
TIZANEXSPENSE is by Tiznow (20-218, 9%, with juvenile debut runners).  The unraced dam has foaled four winners from four runners (2-2 with juveniles, 4-4 with sprinters).  Tizanexpense is a half-brother to multiple stakes-placed Napinowaan (19-2-2-4, 42K, 1-2 at two, 2-12 sprinting) and multiple stakes-placed Against the Tide (23-6-3-3, 111K, 1-3 at two, 3-12 sprinting). The dam is a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 winner Re Toss (35-7-6-8, 887K, 1-5 at two, 1-3 sprinting).  A $70,000 yearling buyback, Tizanexpense sold for $45,000 in March.
AMERICAN BEAR is by Quiet American (20-367, 5%, with juvenile debut runners).  The dam was unplaced from one sprint start and has foaled three winners from four runners (2-4 with 2yos, 2-4 with sprinters). This is the female family of Grade 1 winners Explosive Red and Chief Bearhart. 
JASIZZLE is from the first crop of Belmont Stakes winner Jazil (0-6 with juvenile debut runners).  The dam was a sprint winner (18-4-1-3, 77K, 2-3 at two, won debut, 4-14 sprinting) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3-placed Dubai Gold (53-13-7-11, 496K, 0-1 at two, 0-2 sprinting). A $29,000 yearling buyback, Jasizzle has been working steadily since mid-July.

Selections:
1. Indio Carlos
2. Hammers Terror
3. Real Luck

The Play:
Indio Carlos to Win and Place at 6-1 odds or greater