10/15/2011 6:13PM

Keeneland Babies for October 16

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Welcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll analyze every juvenile contest at the meet.
 
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Sunday, October 16, 2011

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Race 3
7 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Allowance (N2L)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $52,000

Analysis:
BET TO WIN ran away from the field in his career debut at Arlington Park, not surprising considering his trainer James DiVito, is one of the best in the business with first-out runners.  DiVito is no slouch with second-time juveniles, however, with a 9-16 record (57%, Positive ROI) over the past five years with second-time babies in their first start against winners.  The runner-up from Bet to Win's debut, Sacristy, returned to finish second on Friday with a 67 Beyer.  According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 9, Bet to Win "went well under light urging," but it must be noted that he was listed as a vet scratch on October 7. 
TESSIE FLIP has high early speed and improved dramatically second-time out over the Tapeta surface at Presque Isle Downs.  The fifth-place finisher from that race returned to graduate with a 58 Beyer in a $30,000 maiden claimer at Turfway while the sixth-runner came back to take a maiden special weight against males at Thistledown with a 53 Beyer.  Tessie Flip has the pedigree to improve as she's a half-sister to stakes-winning sprinter Keystone Gulch (7-4-0-0, 81K, 1-2 at two, all races sprinting) and multiple Grade 1 sprint winner Switch (17-5-6-4, 1.0M, 1-1 at two, 3-7 sprinting) out of Grade 3 winner Antoniette (19-9-0-2, 399K, 4-11 sprinting).  Trainer Glenn Wismer sent out a winner here on October 12, but Tessie Flip doesn't show a published workout in the last 22 days.
RUSTICANA looked good winning her maiden over sloppy dirt at Ellis Park two starts back.  She prompted the pace from the two-path, took over with ease with three furlongs to run and never looked back.  She may have been in a bit steep when placed in the Kentucky Cup Juvenile Fillies for her first start on synthetic, but she looks well-spotted in this entry-allowance heat. Rusticana is a full sister to multiple stakes-placed Kansas Pioneer (47-5-7-7, 45K, 1-2 at two, 5-38 sprinting) and Group 1 winner Canoa (raced in Mexico and Venezuela).  According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 7, Rusticana gave a "good sharp workout."  Trainer Jeffrey Thornbury is 0-35 over the past three years with horses cutting back from routes to sprints.
EXTREMIST faced a runaway winner in her debut at Presque Isle Downs on August 9, but came back to graduate nicely for a $32,000 tag over the Woodbine polytrack.  Extremist may get a nice pace setup in this spot, but it's worth noting that only one of the five performers to return from the maiden win came back to crack the exacta (41 Beyer top).  Extremist is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Startjumpin Marnie (19-8-3-4, 218K, 4-11 sprinting) and stakes-winner Uptowncharlybrown (7-2-1-2, 110K, 1-1 at two, 2-3 sprinting).  Trainer Michael Pino is 2-10 (20%, $1.56 ROI) over the past year with juvenile maiden graduates facing winners for the first time.
HEATED DEBATE overcame an awkward start from the rail to post a come-from-behind victory over two next-out winners in a $40,000 maiden claimer at Arlington.  Hiked up to the Kentucky Cup Juvenile Fillies for her second start, she rallied against the grain of a speed-favoring track to finish a solid second.  She seems well-placed in this entry-level allowance and should get some pace to attack come crunch time.  The main concern is that she is saddled with that inside post once again.
STRUCK IT LUCKY looked good winning her debut over Arlington's polytrack, but only one of the nine also-rans to return from that race came back to crack the trifecta (60 Beyer top).  Likely overmatched in the Grade 3 Arlington-Washington Lassie in her second start, the expensive daughter of Smart Strike takes the proper drop in class.  A half-sister to Grade 3-placed turf performer Scarlet Butterfly (18-4-2-2, 241K, 0-2 at two), she is a full sister to stakes-placed router Red Strike (4-2-0-1, 92K) out of a multiple stakes-placed dam (12-2-3-4, 120K, 1-2 at two, 0-3 sprinting). According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 13, Struck It Lucky gave a "good workout, hard held."  On September 30, it was reported that she "finished well, last 1/8 in 11/3."  Strike It Lucky looms a dangerous late threat here.
KIRBY whipped $7,500 maiden claimers at Turfway on September 18, her first start with Lasix, but she may have taken advantage of a speed-favoring track and will be facing much-tougher opposition here.  The third-finisher from her last race returned to win, but only with a 33 Beyer. 

Selections:
1. Bet to Win
2. Tessie Flip
3. Rusticana

The Play:
Bet to Win - Tessie Flip Exacta
Bet to Win - Rusticana Exacta

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Race 4
1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

Analysis:
SWEET AND LOVELY is a half-sister to Skittle Queen (multiple stakes-placed in Jamaica) out of a juvenile sprint-placed half-sister to Grade 1 route winner Nobiz Like Shobiz (13-7-2-1, 1.5M) and Grade 2-placed Hello Broadway (9-2-2-0, 149K).  The daughter of Street Cry has gradually stepped up in distance and looks well-prepared for her first start around two turns.  In her most recent effort, the faster division of seven-furlong maiden special weights on grass at Belmont, Sweet and Lovely finished behind the impressive Somali Lemonade, a filly that returned to take the Grade 3 Jessamine Stakes with a 90 Beyer.  Note that trainer Ian Wilkes is 0-26 over the past two years with runners moving from turf to synthetic.
GOLDRUSH GIRL was slightly outworked by Cerce Cay, according to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 6.  Cerce Cay, a juvenile filly, made her career debut on turf here on October 12 and finished eleventh with a 47 Beyer.  Goldrush Girl is out of Grade 3-placed Chasethegold (16-3-3-2, 154K, 0-2 at two, 0-2 routing).  She was a bit of a handful before the start of her career debut at Saratoga, but she ran a solid fifth after encountering some traffic trouble. The winner of that race, Heart of Destiny, returned to finish second in the Grade 1 Alcibiades Stakes on polytrack with an 85 Beyer while the third-finisher came back to graduate on turf here with a 77 Beyer.  Trainer Ken McPeek is 5-15 (33%, $3.09 ROI) over the past six months with second-time juveniles adding Lasix.  Goldrush Girl looms the horse to beat under Manny Cruz.
ANNIE RUSSELL could be the controlling speed under James Graham.  In her most recent start at Arlington, Annie Russell had the early lead, but rated to the pocket position for the backstretch run.  Annie Russell eased out three deep in upper stretch and finished evenly for third behind odds-on winner Rainbow Blossom and next-out winner Songs and Sonnets (58 Beyer in Arlington turf maiden).  The ninth-place finisher from that race also came back to graduate.  Annie Russell is out of juvenile stakes-winner Fircroft (19-3-4-2, 318K, 2-5 at two, 2-17 in main track routes) and could be tough if allowed to race close to soft fractions.
UPTOWN BERTIE, out of Grade 2 route winner De Bertie (24-9-3-5, 485K, 8-20 routing), is a full sister to stakes-winning router Get Ready Bertie (13-4-2-2, 222K, 2-7 at two, 4-8 routing) and is a half-sister to Grade 3 router Whirlie Bertie (10-4-1-2, 205K, 4-7 routing).  It's possible she was a bit "short" for her one-mile debut at Ellis on September 4, but only two of the six runners to return from that race came back to crack the trifecta (50 Beyer top).  Trainer Steve Margolis is 10-57 (18%, $1.70 ROI) over the past five years with second-out juveniles.
KRISTA attempted to rally over a speed-favoring polytrack surface in her six-furlong debut and is eligible to show more speed stretching out in distance.  She finished directly behind Biogio's Gift, a juvenile filly that graduated for a $30,000 tag here yesterday.  A half-sister to stakes-placed sprinter Water Walker (9-2-0-3, 36K) and multiple stakes-winner Peppi Knows (16-7-3-1, 290K, 3-5 at two, 1-5 routing), Krista goes out for trainer Victoria Oliver (2-6, 33%, $2.36 ROI over the past five years with second-out juvenile maidens going from sprints to routes).
Considering the connections (Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez) and pedigree (by Giant's Causeway out of an unraced half-sister to multiple Grade 1 turf winner Voodoo Dancer), Dancing Solo was rather cold on the board at 7-1 for her career debut on Saratoga sod.  She raced wide, but finished well behind Goldrush Girl and will have to deal with rival once again today.  Pletcher is only 0-1 over the past five years with second-time juveniles going turf to synthetic.
QUINTE WEST was reportedly outworked by Arabian Spirit, "according to the Keeneland Clocker Report on October 9."  Arabian Spirit finished tenth in a maiden special weight here on yesterday's card.  Quinte West certainly has the pedigree.  She is a three-quarter sister to Grade 1 router Eskendereya (6-4-1-0, 725K, 1-3 at two, 4-5 in main track routes) and a half-sister to juvenile Group 1 turf winner Balmont.  Quinte West was cold on the board for her debut, but she got loose before the start and sprinting may not be her forte.  Expect a better showing for red-hot trainer Michael Matz.
TERRINE is by Consolidator (9-120, 8%, with juvenile debut runners) out of route winner Delicacy (15-3-4-2, 47K, 3-8 routing) and is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winning turf performer Majestic Dy (39-9-4-2, 285K, 1-4 at two, 0-4 in main track routes), Grade 3-placed router Skip a Grade (75-13-16-14, 377K, 0-1 at two, 6-49 routing), juvenile Grade 3 sprint winner Boston Bull (38-11-4-5, 218K, 2-4 at two, 4-17 routing), multiple stakes-winning sprinter Forest Park (36-13-8-2, 486K, 0-2 routing) and stakes-winner Sky Mystic (8-3-0-1, 112K, 2-4 at two, 2-4 routing).  The $19,000 yearling buyback doesn't show a published workout in 19 days and trainer Ronny Werner is 0-10 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in routes.
BERYOZKA, a nine-time maiden, sheds blinkers after tiring badly for a $25,000 tag at seven furlongs over the Arlington polytrack.  She lost ground from the stretch call to the wire in both route starts to date.

Selections:
1. Sweet and Lovely
2. Goldrush Girl
3. Annie Russell

The Play:
Sweet and Lovely - Goldrush Girl Exacta
Sweet and Lovely - Annie Russell Exacta

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Race 6
7 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Claiming ($80,000)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $28,000

Analysis:
WOODFORD LADY, a $240,000 yearling buyback, was bought back for $70,000 in April.  She broke on top, but was soon caught pressing the pace while in between horses in her grass debut at Belmont on September 11.  She raced in behind runners turning for home, steadied a bit and finished evenly behind Somali Lemonade (returned to win the Grade 3 Jessamine Stakes with a 90 Beyer).  Woodford Lady should appreciate the class relief.  She is a half-sister to Grade 2 sprint winner Sara Louise (11-4-2-1, 400K, 2-4 at two, 2-7 sprinting), juvenile Grade 3 sprint winner Just Louise (4-2-0-0, 97K, 2-2 at two, 2-4 sprinting) and Mexican Grade 1 winner Jacobino.  Expect her on or near the lead.
WILDCAT AT DAWN "was not asked for effort," according to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 5.  She adds Lasix for her first start in the claiming ranks and is out of the stakes-placed turf performer Haylie's Dawn (16-3-2-3, 87K, 2-4 at two, 0-1 in main track sprints).  Wildcat At Dawn finished second in the slower division of maiden special weights at Hoosier on August 31 and then tackled a runaway winner in her most recent outing on September 23 (she was over 15 lengths clear of the third-finisher). That third-finisher came back to finish third, beaten 24 lengths with a 14 Beyer in a $15,000 maiden claimer.
DANGEROUS DREAM is by Grand Slam (47-392, 12%, with juvenile debut runners) out of unplaced Madi's Jul (1-0-0-0, raced on turf, foaled one prior runner that did not win).  The dam is a half-sister to Grade 2 route winner Forty One Carats (22-7-3-1, 828K). A $9,500 yearling RNA that resold for $40,000 in April, Dangerous Dream goes out for trainer Steve Margolis (3-80, 4%, $0.27 ROI over the past five years with juvenile debut runners).  According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 8, Dangerous Dream went "head and head with Water of life for 5/8, went on out well, Graham up."  Water of Life is a winning 4-year-old filly with an 81 Beyer top.
Trainer Ian Wilkes sent out juvenile winner Timely Tally ($23.40) here yesterday and his Sweets Galore drops into a claimer for the first time after finishing third going two turns on grass at Ellis Park.  The winner of that race returned to finish second in a $32,000 starter handicap with a 53 Beyer while the sixth-finisher came back to win two in a row (80, 69 Beyers). 
FLAT OUT FOXY is by Flatter (15-136, 11%, with juvenile debut runners) out of stakes-placed sprinter Foxcroft Sister (11-5-0-1, 62K, 5-9 sprinting, has foaled six winners from seven runners).  Flat Out Foxy is a half-sister to stakes-placed sprinter Wild R. N. (10-1-2-1, 51K, 1-3 at two, 1-9 sprinting).  Trainer Al Stall Jr. is having a very nice meet with juvenile performers.
AMERICAN DARLING, a $47,000 juvenile buyback, didn't do much running in her career debut at Churchill Downs and now must stretch out a quarter-mile in her first race since June.  The winner of her debut returned to finish fourth in the Ontario Debutante at Woodbine with a 57 Beyer while the seventh-place finisher came back to win a maiden at Ellis by 7 3/4 lengths with a 68 Beyer. 
OUTBREAK's lone in-the-money finish from six starts came in a $25,000 maiden claimer at Arlington On July 30.  She turns back from a two-turn turf route, but may need a bit weaker.
CANADIAN QUEEN is by Rock Hard Ten (7-59, 12%, with juvenile debut runners) out of stakes-winning router Royal Fair (22-4-11-3, 395K, 0-2 at two, 0-2 sprinting, foaled two winners from three runners).  The dam is kin to Grade 3 winner Native Regent and multiple stakes-winner Morriston Belle. 
DYNAVIXEN made her debut in a stakes race on turf at Colonial Downs and trailed throughout after a poor break.  This is a more reasonable spot for the daughter of multiple juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Shirley Temper (16-3-4-1, 114K, 2-5 at two, 3-13 sprinting and she'll add Lasix for the first time.
RIBBON TAFFY drops after a wide debut run at Turfway Park on September 11, but doesn't show a published workout in three weeks.  A half-sister to stakes-placed Artic Party (48-19-6-9, 323K, 2-9 at two, 19-43 sprinting), juvenile stakes-placed Kissin Party (17-3-1-4, 87K, 1-8 at two, 3-13 sprinting) and multiple stakes-winning router Barrier Reef (22-5-0-3, 250K, 1-2 at two, 0-2 sprinting), Ribbon Taffy was bought back for $115,000 as a weanling and for $70,000 as a yearling.  The winner of her debut heat returned to finish fifth in a $30,000 claimer here on October 14 with a 49 Beyer.
SATURDAY ROMP is by Any Given Saturday (1-18, 6%, with juvenile debut runners from his first crop) out of juvenile stakes-winner Showmetothevilla (20-4-2-2, 126K, 1-2 at two, 0-7 sprinting, has foaled two winners from two runners).  The dam is related to multiple stakes-winner Show Me Genius (22-6-5-5, 201K).  A $30,000 yearling that resold for $25,000 in March, Saturday Romp "went nicely in hand, Borel up," according to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 13.

Selections:
1. Woodford Lady
2. Wildcat At Dawn
3. Dangerous Dream

The Play:
Woodford Lady - Wildcat At Dawn Exacta
Woodford Lady - Dangerous Dream Exacta