10/13/2011 8:23PM

Keeneland Babies for October 14

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Welcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll analyze every juvenile contest at the meet.

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Friday, October 14, 2011

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Race 4
6 1/2 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Claiming ($30,000)
2-year-olds
Purse $18,000

Analysis:
CLIFFORD is by Vindication (25-174, 14%, with juvenile debut runners) out of Flager (27-7-5-2, 191K), a Southern Halo mare that won first-out at two by nine lengths in her native Argentina.  Flager, Group 1-placed in South America and a 97-Beyer earner in the United States, has foaled one winner from two previous runners (0-1 with 2yos, 1-1 with main track sprinters) and is a full sister to Group 1 winner Flirteador.  The "Keeneland Clocker Report" for September 30 noted that Clifford worked "in company with Sweet and Lowdown with Clifford being the stronger at the wire."  Sweet and Lowdown is a juvenile filly stablemate that graduated two back in a $40,000 maiden claimer at Arlington with a 50 Beyer. Wesley Ward, a top first-out trainer, is 2-9 (22%, 0.88 ROI) over the past year with juvenile debut runners in maiden sellers.
Trainer Al Stall has sent out several live juveniles at this meet and he has an interesting first-time starter named RAPTITUDE entered for the $30,000 tag.  The sire, Aptitude, does poorly with juvenile debut runners (6-171, 4%), but the dam has foaled two winners from as many starters (0-2 with 2yos, 1-2 with sprinters) and is a half-sister to stakes-winning sprinter Minery (4-3-0-0, 79K, 3-4 sprinting). The second dam is a half-sister to Kentucky Derby and Breeders' Cup Classic hero Unbridled.  The October 8 workout matches up with Stall's three-year-old filly Sharp Tongue Lady, a two-time winner with an 87 Beyer top.  Stall sent out juvenile debut winner Philogyny (9-1 odds) in a $30,000 maiden claimer during the 2010 Keeneland fall meet.
TWO LEFT SHOES, a half-brother to juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Intellect (27-6-2-4, 55K, 2-5 at two, 6-26 sprinting), hasn't been off the board in two dirt starts and exits a key heat at Saratoga (the winner returned to take an entry-level optional claimer with a 70 Beyer while the fifth-place finisher graduated for a $25,000 tag with a 53 Beyer).  Two Left Shoes must prove that he can handle a synthetic surface, but his good tactical speed should have him prominently-placed when the real running begins. 
MARKET TIDE, out of route winner Spring Tide, was a $14,000 buyback as a short yearling.  He raced evenly in his career debut over the European-like turf course at Kentucky Downs on September 12 and was flattered when the fourth-place finisher returned to graduate by nine lengths against special weight company at Mountaineer with a 54 Beyer.  The dam is a half-sister to juvenile graded winners Mr. Sea Sanders and Old Tascosa.  According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 6, Market Tide worked heads-up with Madris in a "spirited finish."  Madris is an unraced juvenile colt.
TOASTMASTER is by first-crop sire Defer (1-4, 25%, with juvenile debut runners) out of an unraced mare that has produced one starter to date (did not win).  The second dam won the Grade 1 Alcibiades here as a juvenile filly in 1989 (debut winner, 3-6 sprinting).  A Ramsey homebred trained by Wayne Catalano (1-19, 5%, $0.29 ROI over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in synthetic maiden claiming sprints), Toastmaster worked "together with Storm On The Loose, easily pulled away the last furlong," according to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 5.  Storm on the Loose is an unraced juvenile.
BUDDY BE GOOD, a half-brother to Grade 2-placed Royal F J (22-1-9-4, 172K, 0-4 at two, 0-1 sprinting), was purchased for $5,000 as a weanling before being sold for $12,000 last September.  He just missed three starts back in a race that produced three next-out winners. One of them, Tequila Factor, took the $50,000 Sunny's Halo Stakes on grass at Louisiana Downs with a 67 Beyer.  Forgiving handicappers will note the excuses for his subsequent outings (grass on August 27, bad start on September 23).  Buddy Be Good has early speed and should be among the pacesetters, but he has yet to gain ground from the stretch call to the wire in his five-start career. 
CAPETOWN DEVIL is by Cape Town (23-162, 14%, with juvenile debut runners) out of the unplaced Nureyev's Angel (3-0-0-0, 0-1 at two, 0-2 sprinting), a mare that has foaled three winners from five runners (0-2 with 2yos, 2-5 with sprinters).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed Trinity River (100-15-13-11, 211K, 1-3 at two, won debut, 7-44 sprinting).  A $7,000 yearling buyback, Capetown Devil debuts for David Carroll, a trainer that sent out juvenile debut winner Fredrik the Great (15-1 odds) in an $80,000 maiden claimer during the Keeneland fall meeting. 
INIS MOR is by the promising first-crop sire English Channel (4-26, 15%, with juvenile debut runners) out of Grade 3 sprint winner Elektraline (44-10-5-7, 466K, 0-4 at two, all races sprinting), a mare that has foaled two winners from as many runners (0-1 with 2yos, 0-2 with sprinters).  Inis Mor has been working at the Highpoint Farm and Training Center for his career debut and the low-profile connections should enhance the price. 
SCOOTA PETE, a half-brother to juvenile stakes-placed router Marksmilk Is White (75-8-7-6, 118K, 0-3 at two, 0-8 sprinting), is out of Sams Tune, a stakes-placed sprinter (15-5-2-1, 138K, 1-2 at two, 3-12 sprinting). Scoota Pete failed to make an impression in his debut at Arlington and that race hasn't produced much to date.
HANDSOME HARBOR adds blinkers and drops in class after running poorly at long odds in his career debut over the Arlington polytrack.  That race produced the one-two finishers in a $25,000 maiden claimer at Hawthorne on Thursday afternoon.  The first starter out of an unraced half-sister to stakes-winning turf performer Tight Spin (16-4-6-1, 137K, 0-2 in main track sprints) and stakes-winner Safe Play (35-11-4-4, 249K, 2-3 in synthetic sprints), Handsome Harbor was bought back for $7,500 as a yearling and for $45,000 in April.  He'll have to break alertly from a tricky inside post.
J G'S JAZZ BAND improved dramatically in his first start on polytrack, but that race was against $15,000 maiden sellers at Turfway Park.  These foes look tougher and J G's Jazz Band, a homebred out of a half-sister to stakes-winning turf performer Southern Region, must improve off that 26 Beyer top.
BATTLEWORTH, like Handsome Harbor, adds blinkers after bombing in his debut against maiden special weights.  The $70,000 weanling buyback had a little bit of trouble over the sloppy Churchill strip, however, and may improve switching to polytrack (he worked in 59 and change out of the gate here on October 4).  That Churchill race produced Sheriff Silverstar (finished seventh, returned to graduate at Ellis Park with a 41 Beyer).  Trainer Chuck Peery is 0-14 over the past five years with horses dropping out of the special weight ranks.

Selections:
1. Clifford
2. Raptitude
3. Two Left Shoes

The Play:
Clifford to Win at 7-2 odds or greater

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Race 5
6 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Claiming ($30,000)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $24,000

Analysis:
In a race seemingly packed with speed, FOREVER NOBLE looks like the type of filly that could work out a nice stalking trip while racing in the clear.  Trained by juvenile guru Wesley Ward, Forever Noble raced three wide over an inside-biased Calder track in her most recent start and was just beaten a dirty nose on the wire before galloping out past the winner.  The only two-time winner in the field, Forever Noble is out of a half-sister to Grade 2 turf winner Mystery Giver (43-13-8-3, 1.2M) and Grade 3 turf winner Ioya Two (32-11-5-4, 460K, 0-1 at two, 0-3 in main track sprints). 
HALF PLEASANT moved way up with the addition of Lasix for trainer Ken McPeek, defeating a solid field of $50,000 maiden claimers at Churchill Downs on June 24 (five of the seven runners to return from that race came back to crack the trifecta next-out).  The gray shows some gaps in the recent work tab, however, and may face more pace pressure as she faces winners for the first time.  McPeek is only 0-4 over the past five years with maiden winners returning in the claiming ranks. 
SLICE improved second-out switching to the Turfway polytrack surface and three of the seven runners from that race returned to crack the trifecta (including next-out $7,500 maiden claiming winner Kirby, 39 Beyer).  Out of a route-winning half-sister to Breeders' Cup Sprint winner Dancing in Silks, Grade 3 winner Gins Majesty and Grade 1-placed sprinter Love At Noon, Slice is being showcased a bit (entered in the upcoming Keeneland auction).  She may have found a home on polytrack. 
QUEEN ANNA pressed the pace in the Kentucky Cup Juvenile Fillies, but was in way over her head and understandably tired late.  The first starter out of a placed half-sister to British Group 3 turf winner Putra and Grade 1-placed router Holiday Lady, Queen Anna has stamina influences on both sides of the pedigree and her lone win came around two turns on Arlington sod (beating next-out 51 Beyer winner Circular Street).  She'll appreciate the class relief, but must work out a trip from the rail post.  Trainer Daniel Sanner is 0-19 over the past five years going route-to-sprint.
PROMISE ME, a $5,000 yearling buyback, is the first starter out of multiple stakes-placed Sea of Promises (26-4-6-0, 127K, 2-5 at two, 4-24 in main track sprints).  Promise Me graduated first-out over the polytrack surface at Woodbine, but hasn't shown stretch stamina in his two subsequent starts against winners.  She does have good early foot and seems well-spotted dropping out of a $50,000 optional claimer at Laurel.  High-percentage trainer Michael Pino excels with horses making their second start following a layoff line and he is 2-2 (100%, $3.45 ROI) over the past year with juveniles making that move. 
SWEET AND LOWDOWN was reportedly outworked by Race 4 selection Clifford here on September 30, so you may want to see how that one does before making a final decision on this Street Sense filly's chances.  A $37,000 yearling buyback that only sold for $1,000 in April, Sweet and Lowdown was an easy winner over Arlington's polytrack surface two starts back (beating next-out 60-Beyer winner Yorona) before being cooked in an early duel on dirt at Monmouth.  Out of a half-sister to Grade 2 sprint winner Funistrada, she should like getting back to a synthetic oval, but must avoid another prolonged pace struggle.
VANITY'S SHOWCASE went gate-to-wire over a sloppy Churchill strip in her career debut on May 26, but was getting very tired in the stretch and could face more early pressure if she decides to utilize similar tactics here.  Three of the five runners to come back from that race were able to crack the trifecta next-out.  A $15,000 yearling buyback, Vanity's Showcase goes out for underrated trainer Brad Cox, who has a 5-12 mark (42%, $4.18 ROI) over the past five years with maiden graduates returning for a tag (all older performers).
RAHY GIRL rated from off the pace to beat $16,000 maiden claimers at Ellis Park on August 13 and the fourth-place finisher from that race returned to score for $7,500 with a 45 Beyer.  The dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 route winner Link River and Rahy Girl wasn't disgraced when a close fourth at 47-1 odds here during the spring.  She may get the right setup, but needs a Beyer boost for trainer-jockey combo that sent out Keeneland winners Larry Zip (30-1 odds) and
Break of Silence (14-1 odds) over the past year.
ACTIN' UGLY scored in front-running fashion on dirt at Hoosier Park on September 16, but will get her first synthetic test this afternoon in a race filled with speed.  The runner-up from her maiden score came back to finish ninth in special weight competition at Keeneland on October 8 with a 30 Beyer.
PAOLI is the first starter out of stakes-placed Picata (34-6-5-6, 153K, 1-3 at two, 6-25 sprinting) and attracts the red-hot Julien Leparoux to the saddle.  She beat a next-out winner when a rallying slop graduate at Hoosier on September 4, but that runner, I'm a Rising Star, only earned a 14 Beyer when taking her maiden special. 
ZARCH needed nine starts to break her maiden and did so for a $10,000 tag at Turfway.  The dam is a half to British Group 2 turf winner Lovers Knot, but Zarch may be in too steep here. 
TOUCHED BY FAITH pulled off a 15-1 upset around two turns on Lone Star sod, but never picked up her feet in her first start against winners on dirt at Ellis.  The runaway winner of that race, Essence of Bubbles, came back to beat males in an entry-level optional claimer at Arlington (84 Beyer) before finishing second in the Grade 3 Arlington-Washington Lassie.  Touched by Faith should appreciate the class drop, but her best Beyer from three starts is only a 25.

Selections:
1. Forever Noble
2. Half Pleasant
3. Slice

The Play:
Forever Noble to Win at 2-1 odds or greater

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Race 6
6 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

Analysis:
FLASHY AMERICAN is by first-crop sire Flashy Bull (4-33, 12%, with juvenile debut runners) out of multiple stakes-placed Inn Between (35-6-5-5, 162K, 1-4 in main track sprints), a dam that has foaled one winner from two previous runners (0-1 with 2yos, 0-1 with main track sprinters).  The second dam is stakes-placed Dintel (17-5-2-3, 52K, 1-6 at two, 0-2 in main track sprints).  Trainer Ken McPeek sent out juvenile debut winner Here Comes Frazier over the Arlington polytrack last month and the September 10 workout matches up with McPeek's juvenile Golden Ticket, the third-place finisher in a polytrack maiden here on October 7 (75 Beyer).  The September 17 workout matches McPeek's juvenile filly Rhonin Victoria, a runner-up in a maiden special weight at Ellis on September 4 with a 60 Beyer.  Flashy American should offer a hint of value in a fun, wide-open race.
SACRISTY was bet to even-money for her career debut, but she broke awkwardly before chasing a runaway winner.  Sacristy was easily second-best that afternoon, but the third- and fourth-place finishers returned to both run fifth in maiden special weights at Remington and Hawthorne, respectively.  Sacristy is the first starter out of stakes-placed turf performer Christies Treasure (9-2-3-0, 113K, 1-2 at two, unraced in main track sprints).  Trainer Wayne Catalano is 4-14 (29%, $1.51 ROI) over the past five years with second-out juveniles in synthetic maiden special weight sprints.  According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 5, Sacristy gave a "sharp effort, better than Brew Blessings (1:01)."  Brew Blessings is an unraced juvenile filly.  With a race under her belt, Sacristy has the look of a top contender.
APPLAUDING "was well under control from the gate, in company with Congenial," according to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 7.  Congenial is an unraced juvenile colt.  Applauding is by Congrats (10-84, 12%, with juvenile debut runners) out of an unraced dam that has foaled one winner from one runner (sprint winner).  The dam is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-winner Carmen's Baby (9-3-0-3, 175K, 3-5 at two, won debut, 2-3 sprinting) and Grade 2 route winner Crafty C. T. (18-4-5-5, 832K, 3-11 sprinting).  A $50,000 yearling that resold for $370,000 earlier this year, Applauding goes out for the hot Al Stall barn. 
INDIAN MISS goes out for trainer James DiVito, a wizard with first-time starters (9-16, 56%, $4.00 ROI over the past year with juvenile debut runners, 5-6, 83%, $6.30 ROI over the same time period with juvenile debut runners in synthetic maiden special weight sprints).  By Indian Charlie (39-251, 16%, with juvenile debut runners), Indian Miss is the first starter out of juvenile stakes-winning Glacken's Gal (2-2-0-0, 90K, all races sprinting at two).  Glacken's Gal is a half-sister to stakes-winning sprinter City Dweller (15-4-3-2, 144K, 1-3 at two, 0-1 in synthetic sprints) and stakes-winner Banker's Buy (24-5-7-1, 276K). 
SPRING STREET reportedly was outworked by Coup on October 9, but the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for that morning noted that it was a "good effort for both."  Coup is an unraced juvenile filly.  The sire, Street Cry, is 11-107 (10%) with juvenile debut runners, but he is 2 for his last 71 with all debut runners.  The dam, a Grade 3 sprint winner (23-6-4-5, 496K, all wins sprinting) has foaled four winners from as many runners (2-3 with 2yos, 4-4 with sprinters).  Trainer Graham Motion sent out juvenile debut winner Lord Tarzan at the Keeneland spring meeting.
COMBAT MISSION gave a "speedy gate effort, by herself," according to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 7.  The sire is only 1-35 (3%) with juvenile debut runners, but the dam, a multiple stakes-placed turf performer (18-2-5-2, 104K), has foaled four winners from six runners (2-4 with 2yos).  Combat Mission is a half-sister to juvenile Grade 2-placed sprinter Dixiewink (4-1-1-2, 77K, 0-3 sprinting, all races at two).  The dam is a full sister to multiple stakes-winner Harlan Honey (7-4-2-1, 103K, 0-2 at two, 0-2 sprinting).  The barn sent out a 13-1 juvenile debut winner on December 31, 2010 at Turfway.
TREE HUGGER is by Forestry (32-243, 13%, with juvenile debut runners) out of route winner My Sweet Heart (8-2-0-1, 42K, 0-1 sprinting), a dam that has foaled two winners from three runners (0-1 with 2yos). The dam is a half-sister to Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner War Emblem and stakes-winner Pretty Gale.  The barn is 1-4 (25%) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners, but that one came via purse redistribution.
COOL IT BOYS is by Sharp Humor (9-73, 12%, with juvenile debut runners) out of a turf winner (10-3-1-2, 115K, 0-2 sprinting) that has foaled three winners from as many runners (0-1 with 2yos, 1-3 with sprinters, an older debut winner).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning router Another Anita (18-5-1-3, 126K, 0-7 sprinting).  A $23,000 yearling buyback, Cool It Boys goes out for a barn that sent out a live longshot firster here yesterday. 
SUMMER TREMOR is a half-sister to Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Stevie Wonderboy (6-3-2-1, 1,0M, 3-5 at two, 2-4 sprinting), stakes-placed turf performer Queen Joanne (16-3-2-1, 161K, 0-3 at two, 0-4 sprinting) and juvenile Group 3 turf winner Theyskens' Theory (10-4-1-1, 195K, 2-5 at two).  The sire is 54-302 (18%) with juvenile debut runners and the placed dam (13-0-1-3, 18K, 0-6 at two) has foaled nine winners from as many runners. 3-5 with 2yos).  According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 6, Summer Tremor "was nicely in hand, out in 1:01."  Trainer Rusty Arnold is 3-10 (30%, $7.35 ROI) over the past year with juvenile debut runners in synthetic maiden special weight sprints.
PATCHEN PRINCESS is a racing rarity as she is one of only a handful of registered white thoroughbreds.  She is by Pioneering (25-187, 13%, with juvenile debut runners), out of Patchen Beauty (23-2-2-2, 54K, 0-2 at two, 0-2 sprinting), a dam that has foaled four winners from five runners (0-3 with 2yos, 1-5 with sprinters).  Patchen Princess is a half-sister to stakes-placed Skip the Hatchet (10-2-0-3, 15K, 0-4 sprinting).  Trainer William Connelly boasts a $2.98 ROI over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in synthetic maiden special weight sprints (2-14, 14%).
O SO BO, a $2,700 juvenile buyback, is out of a half-sister to juvenile Grade 2-placed sprinter Valerie's Dream, multiple Grade 2-placed router Song of the Sword, Grade 2-placed router Mr Sword and juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Permanent Makeup.  Despite top connections, the filly was cold on the board for her debut at Hoosier and only was able to muster up a 10 Beyer. 
MYRIAD, by Horse of the Year Ghostzapper (6-64, 9%, with juvenile debut runners) out of the unplaced mare Christy Love, is a half-sister to Grade 3 winner Atticus Kristy (76-16-19-13, 840K, 0-2 at two, 1-13 in main track sprints, excelled in turf sprints), stakes-winner Fiery Dancer (20-4-2-2, 179K, 0-3 at two, 0-7 in main track sprints) and multiple stakes-winning turf performer Distorted Reality (18-5-4-1, 361K, 0-1 at two, 0-1 in main track sprints).  Trainer Merrill Scherer is 4-24 (17%, $2.04 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in synthetic maiden special weight sprints.

Selections:
1. Flashy American
2. Sacristy
3. Applauding

The Play:
Flashy American to Win and Place at 6-1 odds or greater.