10/12/2011 5:36PM

Keeneland Babies for October 13

Email

Welcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll analyze every juvenile contest at the meet.

***

Thursday, October 13, 2011

***

Race 3
6 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

Analysis:
TAKE HEART worked "together with Willcox Inn and was the stronger at the finish," according to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 1.  Willcox Inn is a three-year-old stablemate that won the Grade 2 American Derby earlier this year on grass and has a 99 Beyer top on the sod.  A $32,000 yearling buyback, Take Heart was also bought back for $27,000 in March.  He is by Lion Heart (28-202, 14%, with juvenile debut runners) out of a sprint winner (6-1-2-0, 59K, unraced at two) that has foaled one prior runner that failed to succeed.  The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Mr. Routine (43-7-2-4, 149K, unraced at two).  Trainer Michael Stidham is only 1-22 (5%, $0.33 ROI) over the past year with juvenile debut runners, but that victory came last fall at Keeneland. 
CASA DE CAMBIO's most recent workout matches up with trainer Steve Asmussen's juvenile colt Seeker, a 95-Beyer maiden winner at Belmont that went on to finish third in the Grade 2 Nashua Stakes.  His sire, Exchange Rate, is 31-204 (15%) with juvenile debut runners.  The dam was a multiple stakes-winner on turf (29-6-5-2, 196K, 1-5 at two, 0-2 in main track sprints) that has foaled one winner from two previous runners (juvenile winner).  The second dam is Grade 3-placed Twilight Encounter (19-5-5-1, 125K, 0-1 at two, 1-3 in main track sprints).  A $45,000 weanling that resold for $80,000 last September, Casa de Cambio has a strong grass pedigree and that may translate nicely to polytrack.  Asmussen is a great trainer, but it must be noted that he is 1-30 (3%) over the past two years with juvenile debut runners in synthetic maiden special weight sprints. 
SCATMAN, a $14,000 yearling buyback, chased gate-to-wire winner Here Comes Frazier over a speed-favoring Arlington polytrack on September 5 before tiring in the stretch.  The son of Scat Daddy has yet to gain ground from the stretch call to the wire in either of his starts, but could work out a nice pace-tracking trip while in the clear.  The dam is a half-sister to 14-time stakes-winner Strawberry Morn (27-15-7-1, 501K, 3-4 at two, 9-13 in main track sprints). "The Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 8 reported that Scatman worked "easily in company with Lily Olay," an unraced juvenile filly.
SILVER WINGS took a ton of money for his career debut over sloppy dirt at Ellis Park and battled gamely all the way around the track to just miss by a neck.  While two of the six horses to return from that race came back to crack the exacta, the winner (beaten 45 lengths in the Kentucky Cup Juvenile) and third-finisher (40 Beyer when 11th of 12 here on October 7) didn't run well next time out.  A half-brother to multiple stakes-placed Promise One (23-2-5-4, 62K, 0-4 at two, 1-12 in main track sprints), Silver Wings looms a strong pace factor from the inside post.  He "was not under any pressure," according to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 7.
Over the past year, trainer Ken McPeek is 5-16 (31%, $2.90 ROI) with second-time juveniles adding Lasix for the first time.  He'll try to add to those numbers with YES HE'S TROUBLE, a colt that exits the slower division of six-furlong maiden special weights at Churchill Downs on July 3.  Two of the eight runners to return from that race were able to crack the exacta in Saratoga maiden special weights next-out.  The dam is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-winner Tiger Hunt (7-2-1-0, 319K, 2-4 at two, 1-1 in main track sprints) and Grade 3-placed turf performer Tiger Trap (8-3-3-1, 146K).
HALON is expected to improve as his trainer, Ian Wilkes, does better with second-time juveniles than with debuting babies (3-89 first-out over the past five years as compared to 8-64 second-out).  A $6,000 yearling buyback, Halon is out of a half-sister to Grade 2-placed router Mister Triester (42-7-8-5, 418K, all wins routing).  The winner of Halon's debut race at Churchill has come back to run third twice (best Beyer of 56).  Halon gave a "sharp work, good double out in 58/4 and 1:13," according to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 10.
LET'S GO BEN is a half-brother to Grade 1 sprint winner Here Comes Ben (17-7-1-3, 410K, unraced at two, 5-10 in main track sprints) by Songandaprayer (36-280, 13%, with juvenile debut runners).  The dam, a winner on turf (12-1-1-4, 54K, unraced at two, 0-2 in main track sprints) has foaled two winners from three runners (1-1 with juvenile runners).  The dam is a half-sister to French Group 1 winner King Charlemagne and British Group 3 winner Meshasheer.  Trainer Charles Lopresti is 1-5 (20%, $10.60 ROI) over the past three years with juvenile debut runners and Let's Go Ben has been working quickly over the Keeneland polytrack. The "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 8 noted that Let's Go Ben worked "together with First Minister, neither was extended."  First Minister is an unraced juvenile.  On September 30, he worked "together with First Minister from the gate, good energetic finish for both, Ben holding the edge at the finish."
SUNS OUT GUNS OUT, a $75,000 yearling that resold for $325,000 in March, is by Empire Maker (10-104, 10%, with juvenile runners) and is the first starter out of a mare that was placed (4-0-1-1, 12K, unraced at two, unraced in main track sprints).  The dam is a full sister to Grade 2 route winner Tenpins (17-9-3-2, 1.1M, 2-4 in main track sprints) and is a half-sister to stakes-winner Dust Around (10-6-3-1, 101K, juvenile debut winner, 5-5 in main track sprints), multiple stakes-winner Override Battle (36-12-6-2, 222K, juvenile debut winner, 4-14 in main track sprints) and multiple stakes-winner It's a Sweep (63-13-6-8, 196K, 2-15 in main track sprints). Trainer Dale Romans is 1-27 (3%, $1.42 ROI) over the past four years with juvenile debut runners on synthetics.
GODARD and PURINCAT are both sons of Purim (0-12 with debut runners from his first crop of 2011).  Both are trained by Tom Proctor and both have been keeping company with each other in the morning.  The former is a half-brother to stakes-placed sprinter Jasmine's Melody (37-9-9-6, 79K, 1-3 at two, all wins sprinting) out of an unraced half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Beg Borrow N Steal (31-7-11-3, 246K, 1-3 sprinting), multiple stakes-winner Reno Rumble (56-13-8-11, 510K, 0-3 at two, all wins on turf) and juvenile stakes-winner Rodman (3-2-0-0, 34K, debut winner).  Purincat is a homebred half-brother to stakes-placed turf performer Omega Code (22-5-2-3, 146K, 0-1 in main track sprints) out of stakes-placed Herecomesacat (18-5-2-3, 69K, 1-4 at two, 0-6 in main track sprints), a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Therecomesatiger (29-8-4-5, 434K) and Grade 3-placed Tight Precision (12-3-3-2, 136K). Purincat "went nicely, the better of Godard," according to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 8.  On October 2, Purincat gave a "useful effort, held the edge on stablemate Oak Harbor."  Oak Harbor is an unraced juvenile entered in the fifth race.
SLAMIT is by Grand Slam (47-391, 12% with juvenile debut runners) out of route winner Excedius (8-1-0-0, 14K, 0-1 in main track sprints), a mare that has foaled stakes-placed Seven Grand (8-2-2-1, 53K, 2-4 in main track sprints).  The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Seahawk Gold (45-13-8-8, 523K, juvenile debut winner, 4-9 in main track sprints) and French stakes-winning turf runner Beyond the Waves.  Trainer Eoin Harty is 0-29 over the past three years with juvenile debut runners on synthetic surfaces.
BOLD FRONT is by a sire that is 2-49 (4%) with juvenile debut runners.  The unplaced dam (2-0-0-0) has foaled two runners that did not win.  A $55,000 yearling that resold for $145,000 last year, Bold Front is out of a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Dancing Crozier (72-24-22-7, 388K, 23 sprint wins) and Grade 3 sprint winner Knight Prospector (22-8-1-3, 236K, all wins sprinting).  Trainer Paul McGee is 0-26 over the past three years with juvenile debut runners.

Selections:
1. Take Heart
2. Casa de Cambio
3. Scatman

The Play:
Take Heart to Win and Place at 9-2 odds or greater

***

Race 5
6 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

Analysis:
Let's take a stab with HILARIUM, a son of Sharp Humor (9-72, 13%, with juvenile debut runners) out of an unplaced mare (1-0-0-0, sprinted in the slop) that has foaled five winners from as many runners (2-3 with juveniles, both debut winners).  Hilarium is a half-brother to Grade 3 winner Queen Ofthe Catsle (19-7-7-0, 410K, 0-1 at two, 1-5 in main track sprints).  According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 7, Hilarium gave a "good gate work, head and head with Duke of del Rey."  That one is a winning three-year-old stablemate with a 79 Beyer top on polytrack.  Note that trainer Phil Sims is 0-24 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in synthetic maiden special weight sprints. 
FIFTY FIVE SOUTH, a half-brother to Grade 1 sprint winner The Factor (7-4-0-0, 472K, 1-2 at two, 3-5 in main track sprints) removed blinkers for his second start and gave a much-improved performance, pressing the favored winner's pace throughout.  Speed seemed to do well at Turfway on September 24, however, so Fifty Five South may have been carried along by a bias and the two horses to return from that race failed to make a next-out impact.  Fifty Five South shouldn't be too far away when the field turns for home, however, and seems to be moving in the right direction.
FULL tracked a three-ply pace battle in his career debut on dirt at Saratoga, but failed to gain late ground in the stretch.  His uncoupled stablemate that day, Seven Lively Sins, returned to graduate here last week on polytrack with an 82 Beyer Speed Figure.  That win made trainer Al Stall Jr. 2-4 (50%, $2.65 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles going from dirt to synthetic in a maiden special weight sprint.  Full is the first starter out of stakes-winning sprinter Total (8-3-2-0, 155K, 2-3 at two, 3-6 sprinting), a half-sister to graded-placed router Cease and juvenile Grade 3-placed sprinter Barrier.  According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 7, Full was outworked slightly by Object in a "good work for both."  Object is an unraced juvenile filly.
BLUEGRASS SHOES is a half-brother to multiple stakes-winning sprinter Wildcat Shoes (20-8-3-1, 352K, 3-4 at two, 8-17 in main track sprints), stakes-winning router Isabell's Shoes (10-2-4-2, 94K, 0-5 at two, 0-5 in main track sprints), and multiple stakes-winner Prom Shoes (38-7-6-3, 484K, 1-2 at two, 2-8 in main track sprints). The dam was a multiple stakes-winning sprinter (7-4-1-1, 121K, 3-4 at two, 4-5 in main track sprints).  Bluegrass Shoes exits a live heat at Churchill Downs on July 3.  That race was the faster division of two six-furlong maiden special weights on the card and Bluegrass Shoes faced Big Blue Nation (winner, returned to finish third in the Grade 1 Hopeful), Lockout (second, finished second in the Grade 3 Grey Stakes at Woodbine on October 9), Sabercat (third, won the Garden State Stakes at Monmouth on October 2), Dullahan (fifth, won the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity here last week), Daddy Nose Best (seventh, finished third in the Grade 3 Summer Stakes on September 17), Tiz Sardonic Joe (tenth, next-out maiden winner on grass at Saratoga), and Saturday Launch (eleventh, next-out maiden winner on grass at Ellis Park).  Bluegrass Shoes broke well that day and prompted the pace three wide before faltering in upper stretch.  He looms a strong factor with a recent bullet work under his girth.
BRAVO HABIBI, an $85,000 weanling that resold for $140,000 last year, is by a sire that is 50-448 (11%) with juvenile debut runners.  The dam was a route winner (7-1-0-2, 40K, 0-3 in main track sprints) and has foaled one winner from one prior starter (sprint winner, 0-5 at two). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 winner Meter Maid (24-11-2-5, 557K, 8-18 in main track sprints), multiple Grade 3-placed Haus of Dehere (26-5-4-4, 174K, 2-3 at two, won debut, 2-4 in main track sprints) and multiple stakes-winning juvenile Barilko (4-4-0-0, 205K, 4-4 at two, 3-3 in main track sprints).  Trainer Steve Asmussen is 1-30 (3%) over the past two years with juvenile debut runners in synthetic maiden special weight sprints. 
CYTHEREAN is by first-crop sire Street Sense (3-19, 16%, with firsters) out of Group 1 winner Venusberg (14-3-1-1, 187K, big win came going a mile on turf in Argentina), the dam of two winners from three runners including stakes-placed turf performer Noble Deeds (17-2-2-3, 98K, 0-3 at two, 0-1 in main track sprints).  Trainer Michael Trombetta won the 2009 Commonwealth Stakes here with Eternal Star.
SPINTASTIC raced evenly in the slop for his career debut at Ellis Park and now adds Lasix for Ian Wilkes, a trainer that does better with second-time starters than with firsters.  By Bernardini out of juvenile Grade 3 route winner Original Spin (8-2-1-1, 273K, 2-3 at two, 1-4 in main track sprints), a full sister to multiple stakes-winner Humor At Last (46-8-9-6, 259K, 2-3 at two, 2-11 in synthetic sprints), Spintastic has the pedigree to do some good things. 
SANTONIO D'ORO went "easily better than First Shadow and Big Happy Blur," according to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 8.  The former is an unraced juvenile while Big Happy Blur, a three-year-old filly last trained by Pat Biancone, has a Beyer top of 54.  On October 1, Santonio d'Oro "was pulling away from Harmony Hills at the finish."  That one finished seventh here last week with a 48 Beyer.  By Medaglia d'Oro (15-122, 12%, with juvenile debut runners) out of turf winner Murky Waters (10-2-1-2, 45K, 0-3 at two, 0-2 in main track sprints), Santonio d'Oro is kin to one other runner that did not win. The dam is a half-sister to multiple Grade 3 winner Fort Prado (59-18-10-8, 1.2M, 0-2 at two, 0-1 in synthetic sprints).
SPEIGHTFUL WAYS has lots of pedigree as a half to multiple Grade 3 winner Worldly Ways (27-6-2-9, 503K, 0-1 in main track sprints), Grade 3 winner Trial by Jury (38-6-5-4, 352K, 1-4 in main track sprints) and Grade 3 winner Miss Fortunate (26-7-5-5, 545K, 1-4 in main track sprints).  The dam was also a stakes-winner (14-4-2-4, 168K, 0-1 at two, 0-2 in main track sprints).  An $85,000 yearling that resold for $150,000 in March, Speightful Ways passed some tired horses in his debut on grass at Ellis Park.
ICON IKE showed high speed in his career debut on dirt at Delaware before tiring badly.  The winner of that race returned to finish third in the Maryland Million Nursery with a 65 Beyer while the runner-up came back to graduate at Belmont with a 62 Beyer.  A $65,000 RNA as a weanling that was bought back for $39,500 in May, Icon Ike is the first starter out of juvenile stakes-winner Robbie's Gal (12-2-5-2, 195K, 2-7 at two, 1-6 in main track sprints).  Trainer Larry Jones is only 0-4 over the past five years with juveniles on synthetic surfaces.
OAK HARBOR is by Bernstein (24-198, 12%, with juvenile debut runners) out of the winning Manila mare Orient Pearl (14-2-1-2, 14K, 1-3 in main track sprints), a dam that has produced seven winners from as many starters (0-1 with 2yos).  One of Oak Harbor's half-sisters, Iridescence, produced Grade 1 winner Flashy Bull.  A $32,000 yearling buyback that sold for $160,000 in April, Oak Harbor attracted Garrett Gomez.  His workmate from October 2, Purincat, runs in the first division. 
AL MUSADDAD, also by Medaglia d'Oro, is the first foal out of Jawaaneb, a winner on grass at 11 furlongs in England.  He is bred to appreciate a bit more ground.

Selections:
1. Hilarium
2. Fifty Five South
3. Full

The Play: 
Hilarium to Win and Place at 10-1 odds or greater

***

Race 8
1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
J P Morgan Chase Jessamine (Grade 3)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $150,000

Analysis:
The final time of SOMALI LEMONADE's winning debut at Belmont was over one second faster than the male division of maiden special weights at seven furlongs on the Widener course on the same card.  Forced to rally from far off the pace after an awkward beginning Somali Lemonade blitzed her final eighth in 11.64 to win going away.  She has the pedigree to move forward as a half-sister to stakes-winner Kris's Dancer (61-14-5-5, 215K, 5-14 on turf), Grade 3-placed Chic Joy (16-1-5-0, 95K, 1-12 on turf) and stakes-winner Rasta Farian (23-4-5-2, 238K, 3-18 on turf).  Trainer Michael Matz is having a banner year with his juvenile performers (8-25, 32%, $6.68 ROI over the past six months).  Somali Lemonade must stretch out and face winners from the first time, but should get sufficient pace to attack late under Alex Solis.
SOONERETTE wired her rivals in the $100,000 Happy Ticket Stakes at Louisiana Downs on September 10 and the runner-up from that race returned to finish fourth in the Grade 1 Oak Leaf Stakes on dirt at Santa Anita with a 79 Beyer.  Undefeated on turf, she is out of stakes-winner Gigi's Skyflyer (25-6-2-5, 118K, 2-3 on turf) and should be a solid pace factor once again. 
SLIP ALONG BAND rallied from just off the pace to win her career debut over the Tapeta surface at Presque Isle Downs and she showed some moxie by successfully stretching out three furlongs to take a grassy stakes race at Monmouth on September 4.  Slip Along Band set legitimate fractions in that gate-to-wire score and was flattered when the runner-up returned to finish second in the Grade 3 Miss Grillo at Belmont with a 70 Beyer (the fifth-finisher came back to graduate on grass at Santa Anita with a 69 Beyer).  Slip Along Band was getting a bit tired at the end of her last race, hopping back to her left lead in deep stretch.   She may face pace pressure here.
SWEET CAT gave a professional effort in winning her turf debut at Saratoga on September 1 for trainer Todd Pletcher.  She broke very well from the gate before settling into a good spot tracking the pace from the outside.  Sweet Cat, a half-sister to stakes-winner Loose Leaf (18-5-1-3, 231K, 0-3 on turf), gave a three-wide bid turning for home and was best under the line.  By turf champion Kitten's Joy, she has enough pedigree to handle this added distance, but she must stretch out three furlongs while facing winners for the first time.  She shouldn't be too far off the pace.
EMERALD GOLD is by the good young sire War Front (7-33, 21%, with first-time turf runners) out of a dam that was placed sprinting on the main track (14-0-1-1, 10K, 0-1 on turf).  Emerald Gold is a half-sister to multiple juvenile stakes-placed performer Blading Gold (10-3-1-3, 80K, 2-4 on turf, first-turf winner) and juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Golden Dina (7-2-2-1, 52K, unraced on turf).  Emerald Gold rallied for third behind the West Coast's leading juvenile filly, Weemissfrankie, in the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante and was flattered when that one returned to win the Grade 1 Oak Leaf with an 86 Beyer (the Debutante's last-place finisher, Coup de Coeur, came back to win the Soviet Problem Stakes at Fresno with a 68 Beyer).  Emerald Gold "went easily," according to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 7 and "finished on even terms with Snow Top Mountain" on October 1.  Snow Top Mountain is a 4-year-old filly stablemate with a 96 Beyer top on grass.  Emerald Gold looks to be coming into this race in fine fettle and should get the right pace scenario up front.
FALCONESS chased Soonerette in vain in the Happy Ticket, but that was her first race off a short layoff and she was stretching out three furlongs from her maiden win at Indiana Downs.  She is bred to be a factor on the grass as a half-sister to Grade 2 winner Spice Island (28-7-8-3, 487K, 4-16 on turf).
HONEY TALK got up to win her fourth lifetime start for trainer Neil Howard and also has a strong turf pedigree.  The dam is Grade 1 winner Sweet Talker (18-9-4-1, 1.0M, 7-12 on turf) and Honey Talk is a full sister to Grade 2-placed turf performer Perregaux (10-2-2-3, 118K, 1-9 on turf).  The fourth-place finisher from Honey Talk's maiden-breaker returned to graduate on grass with a 72 Beyer.
DREAM PEGASUS goes out for a barn that excels with first-time Lasix users.  More specifically, trainer Ken McPeek is 1-5 (20%, $3.76 ROI) over the past year with juveniles adding Lasix for the turf debut.  By Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus (16-274, 6%, with first-time turfers) out of turf-placed Miss Fanny (2-0-1-1, 8K, all races on grass), Dream Pegasus is kin to two turf runners that failed to win on the surface.  The dam is a full sister to Grade 3 winner Drama Critic (23-5-2-2, 261K, 4-18 on turf, first-turf winner). Dream Pegasus was a facile winner of her lone two-turn start (on dirt), but only could pass tired rivals in the Grade 3 Arlington-Washington Lassie on polytrack.  She might get a good setup from off the pace.
QUICK SILVER SONG, stuck on the also-eligible list, pressed the pace en route to a debut victory over a speed-favoring Turfway strip.  She boasts a strong pedigree as her sire, Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Unbridled's Song (49-393, 12%, with first-turfers) is usually among the leading stallions and the dam, Saudi Poetry, was a Grade 2 winner going long (15-5-4-1, 596K, 0-2 on turf).  Quick Silver Song is kin to three turf runners that did not win on the surface and could face a wide trip if she draws into the body of the race.
BLESS MY HALO, also on the also-eligible list, ran away and hid by over ten lengths in a grassy maiden special weight at Louisiana Downs on September 24.  She was able to dictate moderate fractions that time, however, and would face other speeds entered to her inside if she does break into the Jessamine.  She's improving, but this would be her toughest test to date by far.
GRACE FOR GRACE won her maiden over the tricky European-like course at Kentucky Downs.  The runner-up from that race was coming off a 31-length drubbing on dirt in her debut so Grace for Grace is taking a big step up in class here.  Still, she has good tactical speed and her barn is having a great year (23% YTD).  Grace for Grace gave a "solid work in even splits," according to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 1. 
CHARMING VIXEN may have been aided by a speed-favoring polytrack when a pace-pressing winner of the $100,000 Kentucky Cup Juvenile Fillies on September 24.  Never off the board from four starts, she is by Bernstein (33-223, 15%, with first-turf runners) and is the first turf runner out of the unplaced Honour and Glory mare Sadler's Charm (0-4, all races on turf), a half-sister to stakes-placed router Sadler's Trick (16-3-0-2, 101K, 1-5 on turf, first-turf winner). Charming Vixen may work out a good ground-saving pace-tracking trip under Calvin Borel.
While Charming Vixen may have been helped by that speed-favoring polytrack on September 24, SPRING ECLIPSE had to rally from next-to-last.  She still was able to get third money, however, and can move forward in her second start of the form cycle.  Like Quick Silver Song, she is a first-time turf performer by Unbridled's Song.  Spring Eclipse is out of the stakes-placed Coragil (22-3-1-5, 120K, 2-10 on turf, first-turf winner) and is a half-sister to Grade 2 route winner Softly (16-6-1-4, 373K, unraced on turf) and Grade 3 route winner Coragil Cat (41-5-4-6, 239K, 0-1 on turf).  Spring Eclipse looks like an interesting longshot that may be best played on the bottom of exotic wagers. 
PISKACHA was well-beaten in her only prior start on grass, but she may have moved prematurely in that Mountaineer Park heat.  She scored at odds-on in the slop in her most recent outing, but draws poorly for this assignment.  Out of the juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Trick Question (12-3-2-3, 24K, unraced on turf), Piskacha may be more effective at shorter distances.

Selections:
1. Somali Lemonade
2. Soonerette
3. Slip Along Band

The Play:
Somali Lemonade - Soonerette Exacta
Somali Lemonade - Slip Along Band Exacta