10/11/2011 6:05PM

Keeneland Babies for October 12

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Welcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll analyze every juvenile contest at the meet.

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*Week One Recap:  An embarrassing performance puts me behind the eight-ball after the first week of the Keeneland fall meet.

*Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager, scheduled surface only):  9-1-4 (-$20.00)

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Wednesday, October 12, 2011

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Race 1
1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack)
Maiden Claiming ($50,000)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $20,000

Analysis:
ANGEL LOVE gets a distance and surface test here for trainer Mike Maker.  A daughter of first-crop sire Corinthian (won Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, 10% with juveniles) out of juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Open Story (12-1-1-2, $76K), Angel Love is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Love Buzz (21-1-2-2, 86K, lone win sprinting). A $30,000 claim by super-owners Kenneth and Sarah Ramsey out of the career debut, Angel Love finished ahead of two next-out winners when second going five furlongs at Churchill Downs on July 3.  She raced against the grain of an inside, speed-favoring track at Saratoga on July 29 before bombing very badly in her most recent run at Ellis Park (all three of the horses to come back from the Ellis start returned to hit the board, including next-out 80-Beyer winner Holiday Soiree).  There are some question marks here, but an aggressive ride from the gate could put her all alone on the front end.
Entrymate ON THE SAME PAGE is by Catienus (1-39 with debut runners in 2010, no debut winners in 2011, 7% overall with juvenile debut runners) out of sprint winner Blue Holiday (36-9-9-4, 303K). She is a full sister to stakes-winning sprinter Notonthesamepage (9-3-1-1, 120K) and a half-sister to Grade 2 sprint winner Holiday for Kitten (11-4-2-2, 271K). The dam has foaled three winners from as many runners.  According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 4, On the Same Page was outworked by Ullapool, a Wesley Ward-trained juvenile filly that won her maiden at Belmont in July with a 68 Beyer.  The distance is a question with this half of the entry as well.
WICKED NIGHT, a $30,000 yearling buyback, is by two-time Breeders' Cup Classic winner Tiznow out of a half-sister to Grade 2 winner Ruby's Reception (17-4-3-3, 365K) and is bred for today's additional distance.  She wasn't disgraced in her career debut sprinting on the grass at Belmont and trainer Eddie Kenneally does very well with second-time starters.  Wicked Night finished directly ahead of Certainty, a filly that returned to Beyer 70 in a runner-up performance in a $65,000 maiden claimer on grass in New York. 
LINDYHOP, a $20,000 yearling buyback, was bumped badly leaving the gate in her career debut at Saratoga and then rushed up three wide to stalk the pace from midpack.  She finished up evenly after being under the whip on the turn and acts like she'll handle the extra distance.  The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner My Pal Lana (25-6-6-4, 465K, all wins on turf or in dirt routes). According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 7, Lindyhop was easily outworked by Moojha, an unraced juvenile filly.
NORTH STAR GIRL is by Horse of the Year Holy Bull (21-297, 7%, with all debut runners since 2007, 24-374, 6%, overall with juvenile debut runners) and is the first starter out of sprint winner Glittering Seas (6-1-0-0, 17K), a half-sister to multiple stakes-winning sprinter De La Concorde (43-12-8-5, 245K), stakes-winning sprinter Tango Red (16-4-7-0, 88K), multiple juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Minty Flavors (8-3-1-0, 87K, juvenile debut winner), stakes-winning sprinter Dharma Girl (23-6-3-1, 219K) and juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Cash the Flash (9-3-0-0, 60K). A $13,000 yearling buyback that resold for $25,000 in June, North Star Girl must navigate two turns in her debut with several sprint influences on the bottom of the pedigree.  Trainer Joan Scott is 1-25 (4%, $0.63 ROI) over the past five years with debut runners in routes. The "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 5 noted that North Star Girl "was nicely in hand from the gate." 
JILL GOLDEN, an $18,000 yearling buyback, exits a very live turf race at Arlington on August 5 and should appreciate today's class relief.  Two horses returned from that heat to graduate next-out while the winner, Stephanie's Kitten, came back to finish third in the Grade 3 Natalma Stakes at Woodbine en route to winning the Grade 1 Alcibiades here during opening week.  Jill Golden is a full sister to stakes-winner Famous Patriot (40-6-4-10, 298K, five route wins) and trainer Ken McPeek is 3-8 (38%, $2.47 ROI) over the last year with juveniles dropping out of the special weight ranks.  This one looms a strong contender.
BE QUIET LADY was outsprinted during the early stages of an eight-furlong maiden special weight on turf at Ellis Park on August 13, but rallied mildly through traffic along the rail in the stretch.  She didn't do much running over sloppy going in her most recent appearance, but her good grass form may play nicely over this polytrack surface.  There is plenty of stamina in this pedigree.  Her sire, Quiet American, is a stout influence and the dam is a half-sister to the long-winded hurdler Flat Top.
TIPPIE TAP is by Pleasant Tap (11-229, 5%, with all debut runners since January 1, 2007 and 14-211, 7%, with juvenile debut runners) out of Karsavina, a Theatrical half-sister to Grade 3 turf winner Old Forester that placed in her only career start (finished third in a route).  Karsavina has foaled one other foal that did win going long.  Trainer Leigh Delacour is 1-47 (2%, $0.89 ROI) over the past five years with debut runners in route races.
CHAMAKCHALLO, a $25,000 yearling that resold for $40,000 in May, is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Diski Dance (9-3-5-0, 101K, all wins sprinting).  Legged up with two sprints at Hoosier, Chamakchallo should be ready for her two-turn debut as she drops out of the special weight ranks.  Two horses came out of her most recent race to score with runner-up Charming Vixen taking the $100,000 Kentucky Cup Juvenile Fillies over Turfway's polytrack with a 59 Beyer.
RIGHT SASSY, a half-sister to stakes-placed sprinter Banjammer (10-1-1-0, 26K), was bet down to 5-1 for her career debut going long on the grass at Arlington Park, but she bolted after the first furlong and was taken out of the race.  The dam was a sprint winner (27-1-3-4, 23K), but Right Sassy gets stamina from her sire, Sky Classic.

Selections:
1. Angel Love
2. On the Same Page
3. Wicked Night

The Play:
Ramsey Entry - Wicked Night Exacta
Ramsey Entry - Lindyhop Exacta'

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Race 2
6 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Claiming ($30,000)
2-year-olds
Purse $24,000

Analysis:
MY MAN DAN, an $18,000 yearling buyback, is untested on polytrack, but he seems well-spotted in this claimer after handling entry-level allowance runners around two turns at Timonium on September 3.  The runner-up from that race returned to finish second in a $15,000 'n2L' claimer at Delaware with a 59 Beyer before finishing fourth, with a 54 Beyer, in the Laurel Futurity.  The inside post is worrisome, but My Man Dan won his last race from just off the pace and may allow some of the other speeds to clear away down the backstretch.  According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 4, My Man Dan had a "slight edge on Ten W Forty in a snappy drill."  Ten W Forty is an unraced juvenile.
CONSOLER bombed in his career debut on turf, but returned to upset a field of $16,000 maiden claimers on dirt at Ellis Park on August 12.  He beat a pair of next-out winners in that heat (best Beyer of the two was a 31 earned in a $7,500 maiden seller) while earning a competitive Beyer Speed Figure, but may face a tougher pace scenario here. Consoler is a half-brother to Passa Passa, a stakes-winner in Jamaica.
HUDSON'S CREED makes his first start for a tag after earning a fast pace figure in a six-furlong allowance over the Louisiana Downs dirt on September 22.  A $50,000 weanling that resold for $45,000 last year, Hudson's Creed has strong sprint influences in his female family and looms a pace threat under Shane Sellers.
DOGWOODS BARTO, a $19,000 weanling buyback, was claimed for $20,000 out of a winning career debut at Churchill Downs on June 30.  Making his first start for the new connections, Dogwoods Barto ran an even third in an entry-level allowance at Hoosier on August 31.  Note that none of the four runners to return from that Hoosier race were able to finish higher than fifth next-out (63 best Beyer). 
GIMMEAWISH, an odds-on, gate-to-wire winner on dirt at Churchill Downs two starts back, wasn't able to carry his speed two turns when returning to polytrack at Arlington on August 14.  A son of multiple stakes-winner Wish for Candi (27-7-3-4, 98K), Gimmeawish is a half-brother to multiple stakes-placed sprinter Pete's Wonder (26-9-5-2, 278K). Turning back in distance should help Gimmeawish, a $1,000 weanling buyback, but he may be more effective on dirt than on polytrack. 
LORD CHELSIE went gate-to-wire over two rivals in a maiden special weight at Monmouth on June 3, but tired very badly when sent around two turns in the Seacliff Stakes at Calder last time out.  A son of multiple stakes-winner Chelsie's House (56-7-10-13, 361K), Lord Chelsie is a half-brother to multiple stakes-winning sprinter Coax Liberty (13-4-3-2, 224K). He's another that should do better on the cutback in distance, but the plethora of layoff lines is somewhat concerning.
JONMIL JOHNNY, a half-brother to multiple stakes-placed Jonmil's Edge (14-3-2-5, 103K), won the slower division of five-furlong turf maiden special weights at Churchill Downs on June 25.  He tired badly in both starts against winners, but has good early speed and gets some class relief.  He has some synthetic pedigree and figures to improve, but may be an underlay following two double-digit defeats.

Selections:
1. My Man Dan
2. Consoler
3. Hudson's Creed

The Play:
My Man Dan - Consoler Exacta
My Man Dan - Hudson's Creed Exacta

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Race 5
1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

Analysis:
KARLOVY VARY, a half-sister to Grade 2-placed Rocket Legs (35-5-4-6, 196K, two-time winner on grass), worked out a nice inside-out stalking trip in her career debut on the grass at Saratoga.  That was a salty maiden heat as the winner, Heart of Destiny, returned to finish second in the Grade 1 Alcibiades with an 85 Beyer here on opening week.  The runner-up, Pianist, is a very promising filly from the Chad Brown barn and the ninth-place finisher came back to graduate on grass for a $65,000 tag (60 Beyer).  According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 4, Karlovy Vary worked "heads up with Japanese Garden, both were under control."  Japanese Garden is a three-year-old filly, also trained by Rusty Arnold, with an 81 Beyer top on polytrack. 
BARGAIN BLITZ, a full sister to Grade 2 turf winner T. D. Vance (25-8-4-1, 576K), improved drastically in her first start on the grass.  In that Saratoga heat, Bargain Blitz pressed moderate fractions all the way around the track and tried hard down to the wire.  That race was dominated by front-running types, however, and the winner returned to finish twelfth in the Grade 3 Natalma at Woodbine.  Bargain Blitz shouldn't be too far away when the real running begins and can't be counted out under Edgar Prado.
LADY OF SHAMROCK, a $35,000 weanling buyback that sold for $80,000 as a yearling and $11,000 in May, is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Smooth Jazz (11-5-0-1, 321K, unraced on grass) and multiple stakes-winner She's Sensational (16-6-1-2, 174K, 4-8 on turf).  She finished behind Karlovy Vary in that good Saratoga maiden, but broke slowly from a difficult outside post.  She rallied late and and figures to save valuable ground from the inside draw. 
SISTERHOOD, mired on the also-eligible list, is a full sibling to juvenile Grade 3-placed turf performer Becky's Kitten (28-4-4-4, 243K, 2-10 on turf) and stakes-winning turf runner Cozy Kitten (8-2-3-0, 126K, 2-7 on turf).  She hasn't broken cleanly in either of her two turf sprints, but looms a pace factor if able to get in.  Her last race produced next-out dirt winner Glinda the Good (68 Beyer at Monmouth) and Inny Minnie, who won last week at Keeneland in her second try after that August 5 heat.  According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 6, Sisterhood worked "in company with Gypsy Robin and was a little better at the finish."  Gypsy Robin, a juvenile filly trained by Wesley Ward, won the Sorority Stakes on dirt at Monmouth last month with an 81 Beyer.
DRAMA DRAMA is out of a turf-winning half-sister to stakes-winner Solo Cat (57-6-7-10, 267K). She chased glacial fractions in her turf, and route, debut at Kentucky Downs on September 17, but was outfinished for the place by Harlan Showgirl.  She seems to have some tactical speed and may work out a good ground-saving, pace-tracking trip.
HARLAN SHOWGIRL, stuck on the also-eligible list, is a half-sister to stakes-winner Ballynoe (22-4-2-4, 160K, 3-14 on turf) out of juvenile stakes-winner Dynasharp (15-3-2-0, 80K, 1-9 on grass).  She seemed a bit green when a rallying second in her career debut at Kentucky Downs and must overcome a tough post if she is gets to race.  According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 7, Harlan Showgirl "closed well, under light urging." 
CERCE CAY is a $75,000 yearling buyback by first-crop sire Hard Spun (4-28, 14%, with debut runners, 1-7, 14%, with first-turf runners) out of route winner Timely Legend (19-3-2-3, 51K, 0-5 on turf, unraced at two).  She is a half-sister to Grade 3-placed turf runner Reel Legend (11-2-3-0, 94K, 0-7 on turf, unraced at two), multiple stakes-winning sprinter Celluloid Hero (54-16-8-6, 0-2 on turf, 2-3 at two) and multiple stakes-winner Song of Navarone (21-8-2-6, 757K, 2-3 at two, won debut, unraced on turf).  Trainer Ken McPeek is 1-22 (5%, $0.90 ROI) over the past two years with juvenile debut runners in turf routes.  According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 6, Cerce Cay gave a "good workout, held a slight edge on stablemate Gold Rush Girl."  Goldrush Girl ran fifth in her debut on grass at Saratoga on September 4 with a 68 Beyer. 
BROMELIA is by top sire Unbridled's Song (38-294, 13%, with juvenile debut runners, 49-393, 12%, with first-time turf runners) out of Elle Meme, a multiple winner on grass in France that has foaled six winners from eight runners.  Bromelia is a half-sister to multiple Group 1 turf winner Good Ba Ba (44-16-5-4, 7.4M, unraced at two) and stakes-placed Ruban Bleu (9-2-0-0, 1-2 on turf, unraced at two, first-turf winner).  Trainer Bill Mott is 0-18 over the past two years with juvenile debut runners in turf routes.
BYE LOVE YOU is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Sea the Joy (22-5-4-0, 188K, 3-5 at two, 2-11 on turf, first-turf winner).  Never off the board from three starts, Bye Love You has made up late ground in all of her races, but those were in maiden claimers and she'll face tougher here.
SEAMSTRESS is out of a half-sister to Champagne winner A P Valentine (13-3-2-2, 864K, 2-4 at two, unraced on turf) and a full sister to stakes-winning turf performer Summer Bet (36-10-0-2, 117K, 10-30 on turf, 0-2 at two). She raced evenly in her career debut at Kentucky Downs behind next-out graduate Grace for Grace (61 Beyer). 
CONSTANTINOPLE, out of Grade 2 turf winner Silver Comic (9-4-1-0, 216K, 4-8 on turf), is a half-sister to Grade 3 turf winner Silver Reunion (10-5-1-0, 254K, 1-2 at two, 2-4 on turf). She didn't do much in her debut, but exits a key race (runner-up Inny Minnie graduated on polytrack here last week). 
WENDY AND HER CATS, out of a half-sister to Breeders' Cup Sprint winner Artax (25-7-9-3, 1.6M, 1-3 at two, unraced on turf), has a tendency to lug out during her races.  She has some early speed and can be forwardly placed stretching out in distance, but must improve off her recent starts.
ROYAL DECREE is by Street Cry (11-107, 10%, with juvenile debut runners and 18-133, 14% with first-turf performers) out of multiple Grade 1 turf winner Ticker Tape (31-8-9-5, 1.4M, 2-8 at two, all races on turf).  The dam has foaled three winners from five runners (1-2 with 2yos, 2-3 with turf runners, 2 first-turf winners).  Carroll is only 0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in turf routes.
OAKS LILY is by Badge of Silver (4-41, 10%, with first-turf runners) out of En Silence, a winner of a six-furlong all-weather race in England (0-5 on turf, unraced at two) that has foaled two first-turf winners from three runners.  En Silence is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winning router Sneaky Quiet (25-5-5-6, 290K, 2-6 at two, 0-1 on turf) and multiple stakes-winner Ironman Dehere (36-6-6-6, 158K, 0-1 at two, 1-11 on turf, first-turf winner).  Bought back three times at auction ($19,000 as yearling, $24,000 and $47,000 earlier this year), Oaks Lily didn't do much running in her debut over the Turfway polytrack.

Selections:
1.  Karlovy Vary
2.  Bargain Blitz
3.  Lady of Shamrock

The Play:
Karlovy Vary - Bargain Blitz Exacta
Karlovy Vary - Lady of Shamrock Exacta