07/16/2010 3:57PM

Jaipur, A Gleam, Del 'Cap, American Derby, Sunset

Email

Let's take a look at some of this weekend's stakes races:

Jaipur - Belmont - Race 9:

STRADIVINSKY's form is eerily reminiscent of Candy Cane, a $50,000 claim by Richard Dutrow Jr. on March 5.  After two months off, Candy Cane returned to score in the Unbridled Sidney Stakes going five furlongs at Churchill Downs.
Stradivinsky was taken for $50,000 by Dutrow on May 27 and will return to the races in the Grade 3 Jaipur going six furlongs on the inner turf.  Once a swift sprinter (Stradivinsky reeled off four consecutive triple-digit Beyers in 2006-2007), Stradivinsky missed all of 2008 with a bone chip in his ankle.  Once returned to the races, he bounced around the claiming ranks before finding good form again earlier this year.  He's now won three in a row and looms the speed of the speed under the hustling Chuck Lopez. 
Stradivinsky may be better at five furlongs at this stage of his career, but he should be prominent when they turn for home, and could have enough to turn back the ralliers in the final eighth.
Selections:  Stradivinsky, Our Friend Harvey, Formidable

A Gleam Handicap - Hollywood - Race 4:

FREE FLYING SOUL easily handled MOON DE FRENCH when they met in the Desert Stormer Stakes at six furlongs on June 12, but I believe that the Bob Baffert-trained Moon de French may turn the tables on Saturday. 
First, that race was Moon de French's initial start of the year following a seven-plus month layoff. 
Second, Moon de French may be better at this elongated sprint distance of seven furlongs. 
Free Flying Soul's record at seven furlongs stands at 3-0-0-2 (albeit in Grade 1 races) and it's possible that Mike Smith will attempt to rate her in order to save something for the stretch.  If that scenario occurs, then Moon de French may be able to scoot away to an easy lead under Martin Garcia. 
It won't be easy, but Moon de French may be a bit sharper in her second race back.
Selections:  Moon de French, Free Flying Soul, Emmy Darling

Delaware Handicap - Delaware - Race 11:

LIFE AT TEN looked tremendous in winning the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps around one turn on June 12.  She stumbled badly at the start, dueled from the get-go with Unrivaled Belle (who had previously unseated Rachel Alexandra at Churchill Downs), and still looked strong at the finish. 
This time, however, I'll take FUNNY MOON, who was beaten 2 3/4 lengths by Life At Ten in the Phipps.  Many handicappers were dismayed with Funny Moon's performance that afternoon, as she sat a great trip behind the two speeds and still couldn't make up much ground in the stretch.  Still, a closer look reveals that the main track was extremely fast and speed-favoring at Belmont that day and Funny Moon may have been compromised by the bias. 
The winner of the 10-furlong Coaching Club American Oaks last year, Funny Moon should save valuable ground after breaking from the inside post, and Alan Garcia may attempt to get her into the race a bit sooner this time around. 
Selections:  Funny Moon, Life At Ten, Milwaukee Appeal

American Derby - Arlington - Race 8:

A contentious bunch so I'm going to go for a big price.  MINT CHIP (20-1 on the morning line) is bred for the turf (by Johar out of a Theatrical mare), so it's interesting that he has yet to crack the trifecta in three grass starts.  His last two races on polytrack show promise, however. 
Two back, he beat entry-level allowance runners at Keeneland with a last eighth of a mile in a shade under 12 seconds.  Last time out, he chased the streaking Todd Pletcher-trained Exhi and the crack Canadian sprinter Essence Hit Man when fourth in the Marine Stakes. 
Mint Chip worked swiftly at Keeneland on July 9 for the underrated Rusty Arnold and it's possible that we've yet to see his best (only six lifetime starts).  At a good price, I'll give him a shot.
Selections:  Mint Chip, Workin for Hops, Asphalt

Sunset Handicap - Hollywood - Race 9 (Sunday):

DYNAMIC RANGE was claimed out of his last race by Mike Mitchell (38%, positive ROI since 1/1/09 off the claim) and he is very comfortable at this marathon distance.  He should show good tactical speed under Rafael Bejarano (sitting behind pacesetting MARLANG and, perhaps, GREAT SIEGE) and has been knocking heads with some tough cookies (Bourbon Bay, Loup Breton, Brushburn). 
The Sunset is filled with unproven runners stepping up in class and distance as well as horses that are off form.  Dynamic Range seems like a decent fit.
Selections:  Dynamic Range, Champ Pegasus, Oil Man

More importantly, who do you like this weekend?  I want to know.

I'll be trying out new blog software early next week so bear with me if there is a glitch or two that needs to be ironed out.

Have a great weekend,

Dan


 

wilson More than 1 year ago
Laura, Thanks again and yes I remember your thorough and impressive pedigree analysis of Paddy O' Prado. I like the pedigree and accept your pedigree analysis as pretty much correct and well informed. However, I choose not to throw out his prior races, especially the Bluegrass, which is pretty much a gateway to the turf season anyway. Look at General Quarters, Cowboy Cal, Hold Me Back, Paddy O' Prado, they all ran well in the Bluegrass Stakes on the Polytrack and pretty much have run the same on the turf. The thing is I must have watched this year's Bluegrass Stakes about 50 times and for me I choose to use the race as a true indicator of turf inclination. I think watching a horse run a few races is just as important as pedigree analysis, but that's just me and I am not attempting to discredit pedigree analysis in general. I have watched enough races now that I am going to trust my eyes and I don't think Paddy O' Prado wants longer distances. He may be classy enough to win a longer race, just as a horse like Kip Deville won the Gulfstream Turf Handicap at 9f in 1:45 and change despite 9f being far outside Kip Deville's best distance and game. As you say Paddy O' Prado may improve throughout the year and wind up a contender in the BC Mile or BC Turf. There is no shame in winning the BC Mile or being a top contender for that. I think his running style and his stride, as seen on multiple surfaces in races and workouts, lends toward shorter distances.
hard spun More than 1 year ago
huh, not quite sure what the hell any of ya are talkin about. I also like Stately victor at a price. General quarters is a lock . Love workin for hops but mint chip is dangerous. Would take the highest price of tuscan evening, rainbow or hot cha cha
Curt A Vassallo More than 1 year ago
BSB, OKAY. Let's get past the 1st one 1st. Later on the Deferred.........? Just in case U were blowing smoke & too embarassed to ask, ? Find UR way to: http://horseplayersassociation.org go to the highlighted Rankings of the tracks & click. go to the right side & find & click on the 2010 speadsheet. WOW !! Lo ! A figure'ers's paradise..LOL..Like U... NOW. Pay attention...... go along the top headings--horizontally{left to right} & click on any FLAVOR of UR desires..ie. field size, take out score, WPS, exotics, etal... It will automatically re-list them in order of ranking...& %'s--all there.. It's sorta like getting a prize in the "Cracker-Jack" Box... test: tell me the 3 Canadian Tracks that are in the bottom 12 of TAKE OUT SCORE & their appropriate ranking & then we can proceed to inform U of the Deferred Prosecution Agreement w/NY & the tracks....LOL....... BTW: U did all that homework & it's all there 4 U....heheheheheh...& C is getting mad at all my abbrev's.....Awaiting, & back to the future.....
Curt A Vassallo More than 1 year ago
SR Vegas, Thinking what to say & how to say it. It aint dirty. It's just stupid. Slewster infected. Horse bleeping story. Not sure it's even funny, anymore. I'm thinking......LOL...Back 2 U..All I can say is: 116 degrees @10:AM for crying out loud, sure as hell is 116 degrees. Don't believe that crap about it being DRY heat.
Pippen0707 More than 1 year ago
Spot Play Our Dear Peggy Stakes @ Calder race 10 #8 Toocleverforwords...... First time Marty Wolfson is lethal @ Calder. Only if race stays on the green.
SR Vegas More than 1 year ago
Curt No hurry, kinda funny that most stories regarding LV (as advertised) "What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas" and you want to share? ...LOL! SR Vegas
SR Vegas More than 1 year ago
vicstu ...nice to see you back, and hope you settle in nicely in your new digs. SR Vegas
SR Vegas More than 1 year ago
Ned Daly "Any Formbloggers going to Saratoga on Sunday for the steeplechase races?" note..A few Blue Thongs will be hanging at the TOGA Track Saturday July 31st if you are around :) ...more details, I'm sure will follow. SR Vegas Posted by: Ned Daly on July 15, 2010 at 03:27 PM
Dan Illman More than 1 year ago
Hey guys, I don't really have a strong opinion in the Virginia Derby. My picks are: 1. Paddy O'Prado 2. Krypton 3. Two Notch Road 4. Interactif Honestly, I don't love any of the four. Paddy's prior race was good, but it didn't knock my socks off. I'm a bit worried about the distance for Krypton and Interactif and I'm worried about the pace scenario for Two Notch Road.
blackseabass More than 1 year ago
Curt V., ARE U COMPUTER LITERATE OR NOT? Well I wouldn't go as far as to call myself computer literate but I did find the stuff you were talking about thanks for the heads-up. What can you tell me about that deferred prosecution agreement ? Or tell me where to go to find what you know. Thanks.