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Jaipur and Brooklyn Thoughts, Top Beyers from Last Week, Etc.
Let's take a look at both graded stakes at Belmont on Friday.
JAIPUR STAKES (RACE 9):
On April 4, 2009, Chad Brown claimed Silver Timber for $25,000 from Linda Rice. Two starts later, Silver Timber won the Grade 3 Jaipur en route to becoming one of the top turf sprinters in the country.
On February 11, 2012, Brown took BERGERAC from trainer James Baker. In his first start for the new barn, Bergerac ran a solid second as the beaten favorite in the Grade 2 Commonwealth Stakes over the Keeneland polytrack.
Will history repeat itself in this year's renewal of the Jaipur?
I hope so.
Bergerac, a full brother to Grade 2 turf winner T. D. Vance (a Saratoga stakes-winner sprinting on the grass), has proven grass form and now gets a chance to switch back to that surface. There doesn't appear to be a ton of speed in the Jaipur and Bergerac may use his excellent tactical foot to get the jump on logical late-kickers like RIGHT ONE.
Selections: BERGERAC, RIGHT ONE, SHINTOH
BROOKLYN HANDICAP (RACE 10):
Unlike the Jaipur, the Brooklyn seems to have a good amount of speed, especially for a 12-furlong jaunt on the main track. In my multi-race wagers, my two key horses are NOT ABROAD and EYE ON JACOB. The former stretches out past nine furlongs for the first time in his career (he hasn't won at that distance), but is in excellent form. He took the $50,000 Joseph French Memorial Stakes over a solid field at Delaware in his seasonal debut, has won three of his last five races with solid numbers and would benefit from a good pace up front.
Eye On Jacob could be compromised by the presence of other speed horses, but the well-bred 6-year-old put together a pair of fast races earlier this year and enters fresh for Todd Pletcher. I wouldn't be surprised if he takes another forward move here.
Selections: EYE ON JACOB, NOT ABROAD, BOXEUR DES RUES
Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures from last week's races (5/28/12 - 6/3/12):
1. SHACKLEFORD - 115 - Metropolitan Handicap (G1) - 1 Mile - Belmont
2. GAME ON DUDE - 114 - Californian Stakes (G2) - 1 1/8 Miles (Cushion Track) - Betfair Hollywood
3. NATES MINESHAFT - 107 - Lone Star Park Handicap (G3) - 1 1/16 Miles - Lone Star
3. ROMAN THREAT - 107 - Los Angeles Handicap (G3) - 6 Furlongs (Cushion Track) - Betfair Hollywood
5. BUFFUM - 105 - OC 50k/N2X -N - 1 Mile - Belmont
6. WHERE'S STERLING - 103 - Memorial Day Handicap - 1 1/16 Miles - Calder
7. CONTESTED - 101 - Acorn Stakes (G1) - 1 Mile - Belmont
8. STREAKIN' MOHICAN - 100 - Arapahoe Sprint Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Arapahoe
9. ROD'S FIVE STAR - 99 - OC 40k/N3X -N - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Parx
10. C C'S PAL - 98 - Vagrancy Handicap (G2) - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Belmont
10. NONIOS - 98 - Affirmed Handicap (G3) - 1 1/16 Miles (Cushion Track) - Betfair Hollywood
10. RAGING SIX - 98 - OC 32k/N2X -N - 6 Furlongs - Monmouth
13. CALLED TO SERVE - 97 - Alw 54350N1X - 1 1/8 Miles (Cushion Track) - Betfair Hollywood
13. ROTHKO - 97 - Aristides Stakes (G3) - 6 Furlongs - Churchill
13. STORMY GOING - 97 - Alw 52735NC - 5 1/2 Furlongs (Tapeta) - Presque Isle
16. GUYS REWARD - 95 - OC 100k/C -N - 1 Mile (Turf) - Churchill
16. IT'S TRICKY - 95 - Ogden Phipps Handicap (G1) - 1 1/16 Miles - Belmont
16. RAUSCHENBERG - 95 - Alw 62000N3X - 6 Furlongs (Turf) - Hollywood
16. TAYLOR SAID - 95 - Winston Churchill Handicap - 1 1/16 Miles - Hastings
20. SOLAR ROCKET - 94 - Clm 25000(25-22.5) - 6 Furlongs (Cushion Track) - Hollywood
20. SURFRIDER (Ire) - 94 - OC 75k/N3X -N - 6 Furlongs (Turf) - Belmont
22. MARKETING MIX - 93 - Nassau Stakes (G2-C) - 1 Mile (Turf) - Woodbine
22. READYTODEFER - 93 - OC50k/SAL50k - 6 Furlongs - Belmont
22. SARATOGA SNACKS - 93 - Alw 57000N1X - 6 Furlongs - Belmont
22. STEALCASE - 93 - OC 75k/N1X -N - 1 Mile - Churchill
22. THE HUNK - 93 - John J. Reilly Handicap - 6 Furlongs - Monmouth
SHACKLEFORD'S lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.
GAME ON DUDE was tremendous in winning the Californian and seems primed for another strong performance in the upcoming Hollywood Gold Cup. Chantal Sutherland took the race right to MORNING LINE and The Dude disdainfully flicked that one away with 5/16ths of a mile to run. It appears as if the ill-fated trip to Dubai took little out of the Bob Baffert-trained runner.
SARATOGA SNACKS looks like an interesting 3-year-old for trainer Gary Sciacca. A $60,000 yearling purchase, Saratoga Snacks is a New York-bred son of Tale of the Cat. After finishing second in his career debut over muddy going at Saratoga, Saratoga Snacks won second-out with a 76 Beyer. He went on the shelf after that promising victory with a fractured right pastern, but returned with a flourish last week, taking an entry-level allowance with a 93 Beyer Speed Figure.
NOTABLES ON THE WORKTAB (5/28/12 - 6/3/12):
*ACCLAMATION (Bruised right front foot + Signs of unsoundness in ankle) - 1M - 1:41.20B - Betfair Hollywood (turf, dogs) - June 1
*ALL STAR HEART (Splint right front leg) - 7F - 1:28.80H - Betfair Hollywood (turf, dogs) - June 3
*BEAR IT'S TIME (undisclosed) - 3F - 38.00B - Woodbine (training) - May 31
*FREEDOMS TRAVELLER (hairline fracture left front ankle) - 5F - 1:03.80H - Northlands - June 2
*EXCAPER (EPM) - 5F - 1:01.80B - Woodbine - June 3
*FORMAGGIO (cut right hind heel) - 5F - 1:03.40B - Churchill - June 3
*ISMENE (ankle chip) - 4F - 52.40H - Betfair Hollywood - May 29
*JOHN JOHNY JAK (colic surgery) - 5F - 58.80H - Betfair Hollywood - June 3
*OPEN WATER (bone crack shin) - 5F - 1:02.40H - Santa Anita - June 2
*RAVELO'S BOY (grabbed heel) - 6F - 1:11.80H - Calder - June 3
*RULE (bruised left hind foot) - 4F - 48.56B - Belmont - June 3
*RULER ON ICE (sore) - 3F - 36.00B - Monmouth - June 3
*STARS TO SHINE (condylar fracture) - 5F - 59.80B - Woodbine - June 2
*SURREY STAR (heat in suspensory ligaments right front leg) - 5F - 1:02.80H - Santa Anita - June 1
*WELL KEPT (chip right front ankle) - 3F - 37.58B - Belmont - June 3
Please check out the latest video production from Jessica Pacheco, Racing Analyst at Arlington Park. It's the "Behind the Silks" video series following jockey Tim Thornton through his ups and downs at this year's Arlington meet.
In episode 2, join Tim as he heads to the Grand Opening of the new OTB, Sam's in Orland Hills. Learn more as Tim looks back on the month of May - explaining how blinkers helped a rank filly to focus and win, and talking about a spooky incident at the starting gate.
A little off topic but can you post the pick 4 payoff for the last four Belmont's where a triple crown was on the line?
2008-- Big Brown's Attempt: $2 Pick 4 1/5/10/6 4 of 4 34287.00
2004-- Smarty Jone's Attempt: $2 Pick 4 1,4/3/5/4 4 of 4 7309.00
2003-- Funny Cide's Attempt: $2 Pick 4 2/5/3,10,12,13,14,15/1 4 of 4 271.00
2002-- War Emblem's Attempt: Didn't offer Pick 4 wagering.
Dan, of the past 11 horses going for the TC and losing the Belmont, how many had run a race over the track?
Only 3 horses had had a previous race on the Belmont track.
Funny Cide, Pleasant Colony, and Spectacuar Bid.
I posted this on a previous thread:
Wednesday, May 23, 2012, 12:14:16 PM
After looking at Whirlaways pps', I REALLY got interested.
So I checked the 11 horses who won the Ky Derby/Preakness and did not win The Belmont, to see if they had a prevous race on the Belmont track.
These from pp's in the 'Champions' book.
-None of the CA horses had a previous run on The Belmont track.
-Some of the other horses did not either.
-Those who had , did not win this third leg.
2008- Big Brown - No prior race at BEL
2004- Smarty Jones - No prior race at BEL
2003- Funny Cide - preps as a 2 yo at BEL
9/8/02 6F 43K MSW -won
9/29/02 7F 75K Bertran S.-won
10/19/02 1M 100K Sleepy Hollow - won
2002- War Emblem - No prior race at BEL
1999 - Charismatic (CA) - No prior race at BEL
1998 - Real Quiet (CA) No prior race at BEL
1997 - Silver Charm (CA) No prior race at BEL
1989 - Sunday Silence (CA) No prior race at BEL
1987 Alysheba (CA) No prior race at BEL
1981 - Pleasant Colony - prep as a 2 yo at BEL
4/1/80 7F MSW - ran 6th
1979 - Spectacular Bid - prep as a 2 yo at BEL
10/8/78 1M Champagne S- won
2009 - I'll Have Another (CA) - No prior race at BEL
I guess we will see if history repeats or not . Hope you find this tid bit' of information interesting, and or useful :)
Any truth to a comment I heard that no horse has ever won the
Belmont Stakes with a Tomlinson rating of less than 300?
In last year's Belmont, RULER ON ICE's listed Tomlinson was 207*
I'm fairly certain that there have been other winners that had Tomlinson Distance Ratings of less than 300.
Bizzy Caroline's time in the ladies turf stake was average. 1:43.3 was only about a click better than $30k claimers a bit earlier. Expecting low Beyer but will see when Dan posts
Bizzy Caroline received an 87 Beyer for her victory in the Grade 3 Mint Julep Handicap at Churchill Downs on June 2.
GR3 Affirmed Stakes:
LAURA'S Liaison - 2nd
HAIRY'S Holy Candy - 3rd
DAN ILLMAN'S Blingo - 5th
I don't know, Dan, Blingo sure hasn't run to expectations has he? You just don't seem to have any luck in the MKB.
Baffert's Gun Boat did his job, but Liaison still couldn't get it done.
Annie, I'm hoping he's a turf horse like Mr. Commons, his stablemate. If not, my record of futility in the MKB continues...
Congrats to BreeAnn Reiner for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling exercise.
Penn National Rick's results spreadsheet is available at the bottom of the blog post.
Let's go with the Belmont Stakes for this week's event. NOTE THERE WILL BE BROOKLYN/BELMONT DAILY DOUBLE "WAGERING" ALLOWED.
REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.
PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.
Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.
Please post your plays and analysis to the blog.
PLEASE GIVE YOUR NAME OR BLOG MONIKER AT THE END OF THE HG PLAY AND/OR ANALYSIS.
Please separate the play from the analysis and label the play "HG" with the program numbers (instead of the horse's name) for easier scoring.
In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per person please.
I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
Best of luck to all.
|Formblog Contest 6-1-2012.xls||28 KB|
Vicstu: great analysis and very informative. Unfortunately, it is why I used IHA sparingly in my KD wagers. Thanks for the info. ST
12 hrs of digging & 6 hrs of hdcpin; . Down & Dirty. I need some Lasix ,Bute & a milkshake,buttZ... I'll have to settle for coffee & a smoke. Down & dirty picks 7th royal currier, caixa hamZing 8thDancing dreams,wallis,tapit 9th isn;t he, hierro, bourbon 10th omayed,brilliant, top surpriZe
Dan, See you @ Belmont if you go. On your current thread on the Belmont Race, you mean trouble w/the site for the last 12 Months, not the last 12 hours. Good luck getting the IT Department to respond. Go Union & your Slewster too Dan. Curt V. Leaving at 9:30AM..........
HG Analysis, the world is a ghetto...especially NY. Need I say more.:-( HG Wagers $1 tri 1,6,9 / 1,4,5,6,9, 12 / 1,4,5,6,9,12 =$60 $1 ex box 1,6,9 =$6 $10 win 1,6,9 = $30 $ 2 win 7,8 =$4 $100 dandy$ Thanks LSD & PNR
BTW, Before everyone strings me up for my conjecture that the tendon could have been an issue on and off for some time now, not unlike Big Brown's hoof issues, consider this: Remember when we were told IHA was getting EST for his stiff back? The practice is most commonly used for leg and tendon issues (and also back pain). What is this EST was actually for IHA's tendon, even back then before the Derby? "Extracorporeal shockwave therapy, first used by equine practitioners in the late 1990s, has been found to be an effective treatment for a wide variety of ailments, including navicular syndrome, tendon injuries, osteoarthritis, ringbone and back pain. It can have a short-term analgesic affect, dulling pain sensors, and is not permitted within a certain of number of days prior to racing, depending on the jurisdiction. For more information on extracorporeal shockwave therapy, click here." http://www.paulickreport.com/index.php/news/triple-crown/i-ll-have-another-on-vet-s-list-after-undergoing-shockwave-therapy-o-neill-says-it-won-t-affect-derby-training/ -vicstu
The conspriracy types are out in full force saying the detenion barn did Doug in and that he cannot run a 100 percent clean horse. I think that is absurd. I do, however, think this issue had been festering for a while. I do not buy the injury happened in the dark this early AM when they were out there avoiding everyone. This makes the two minute licks and the strong gallops (while refusing to do a published work) make much more sense. Someone that I trust told me he thinks they pin-fired a tendon a while back before IHA began his 3 year old season and that IHA came out of the Preakness a little swollen and sore. He looked pretty good on the track but I noticed that Union Rags looked better moving over the track despite being hot on Wednesday than IHA did. Maybe that was just UR's enormous stride. Sure, IHA could still run, but why risk a breakdown. It was clearly swollen today. Trust me, IHA runs to win. You have seen that. He was an amazingly game horse. So, we could have had another Big Brown situation or even a Charismatic (who still hit the board with a career ending injury that did happen during that race)... No one with an ounce of sense is buying this nonsense that it happened early this AM. Baloney! They were out at 5:30 AM before anyone else was on the track in the dark avoiding everyone...so, something was up. Also, I could have swore I read a quote somewhere where Doug said something about the leg being swollen "again." Regardless, sad news. But there are still 11 horses here...I like Union Rags. I also like Dullahan, of course, but I am just a little worried dirt is not his best surface. If they can gallop him around the track, he may be hard to hold off in the stretch. I felt like I was kicked in the gut when my wife work me up with the news....but better now than Saturday afternoon or during the race. This post-parade thing seems to be something that they hope will keep the crowd there. IMO--vicstu And BTW, the reliable source is not the same source I had for other things and my guess is that he was speculating on the pin firing and the tendon anyhow. I will reapeat, however, that like Ray Paulick I found the no breezes for IHA and the daily gallops (some close to 2 minute licks) a bit puzzling. No horse has won a Triple Crown with no published works since before the Derby. This is a different age, but that is still a fact that immediately made me say I was baffled why they were not breezing the horse. I like Union Rags because I am hoping his female tail line and his bottom of the pedigree come through for him. I have been a big advocate for the underside of the pedigree ever since Big Brown, and there IS stamina there underneath and Union Rags is built like a classic distance horse with a classic stride. So, I am hoping Dixie Union has little to say Saturday. Then again, UR's pedigree is just as stout as Dullahan's, so...(I cannot get off those two but will trying to find some bombs like Calvin). So, even that lightly raced horse that is undefeated is looking good to me (U. U.).
HGBELMONT WOW! What a scratch, to bad, but they did what was best for the horse. revised wager: $100.00 trifecta 5/3/9 Pig Bodine
Well... Jeanne, I did not bet an exacta box in the Brooklyn. Nor did I bet Eldaafer across, which I intended to do. I put in a few doubles, but I used the aforementioned gelding, Eye on Jacob, because I listened to people (must remember, never listen), and Birdrun, who stumbled badly, the rider lost his iron, terrible start, etc, but... that middle move I'm not so sure about. I guess he likes the front, but he made his run like they were going a mile. No way that was going to work. Maybe he could have bided his time? Birdrun nearly made the front on that run, perhaps he could've saved it? I missed a 2-1 winner, what can I say? Should've been obvious, as things are in hindsight, because when I looked back at the form after his win, I realized that I'd missed the fact that last year, Redeemed BEAT Alternation at 9f and finished second to Caleb's Posse at 6.5. Lord. Missed both of those. I did a bad job handicapping that horse and the race in general, with the exception of my man Eldaafer's best run in years. Too bad I didn't, you know, bet him...
HGBelmont #1 Street Life never run as a 2 year old and seems to be getting it all together now but is going against some proven campaigners in this race does show some nice finishing efforts was outrun against a speed freak in gemologist so Im thinking a lower spot if any for this colt who will be far back early on. #3 Union Rags on first look he should be the one to beat with a rough trip last being squeezed early then finishing up strong for seventh place given all this bad luck and now gets a new rider in velazquez who has never ridden him and the chance to prove his ability I have to think he is a solid contender to get the money.Im thinking the conections will move him much more closer to the second tier and be in position to fire his best with dullahan right behind. #5 Dullahan the likely favorite with castellano in the irons having finished up a close third in the derby with a solid work last sunday is bred to go this distance and only has to stay out of any trouble to get up for the win. I only wish KD was on him he knows when to push the button but castellano is no slouch for sure. #9 Paynter BB said he is better than bode so if thats true he will be one on the wire with these guys definately the one to beat here with his speed and take a look at his record two wins both going away at odds on first start as a three year old bobbled at the break going four wide against who IHA outfinished by heirro but was in the slop so you can throw that out then jumped all over the field at pimlico pulling away in a hand ride need I say more oh yes the improving beyers with two 100 plus and no one in the race even has a 100 beyerIts like the movie Catch Me if You Can. #10 Optimizer why is lukas putting him in this? remember commendable? lukas is a cagey sort that sometimes comes up with a ringer and he must have his reasons do like nakatani riding and that last work 1.00 B stands out so just maybe he gets a piece of this one with all the angles ive mentioned Ill use him under. #4 Atigun has the look of an improving horse with two solid beyers in last two and if it rains well look at that last race with leparoux wide sweep to get the dough will use under on my supers. The bet: 9 over 1-3-4-5-10 superfecta= $100 good luck all MH01
HDG: Dullahan and UR working well for this. HDG wager: $25 SUP PW: 5 / 3 / 4-9 / 1-4-9 Good luck to all, Dale