06/07/2012 3:40PM

Jaipur and Brooklyn Thoughts, Top Beyers from Last Week, Etc.

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Let's take a look at both graded stakes at Belmont on Friday.

JAIPUR STAKES (RACE 9):

On April 4, 2009, Chad Brown claimed Silver Timber for $25,000 from Linda Rice.  Two starts later, Silver Timber won the Grade 3 Jaipur en route to becoming one of the top turf sprinters in the country.

On February 11, 2012, Brown took BERGERAC from trainer James Baker.  In his first start for the new barn, Bergerac ran a solid second as the beaten favorite in the Grade 2 Commonwealth Stakes over the Keeneland polytrack. 

Will history repeat itself in this year's renewal of the Jaipur? 

I hope so.

Bergerac, a full brother to Grade 2 turf winner T. D. Vance (a Saratoga stakes-winner sprinting on the grass), has proven grass form and now gets a chance to switch back to that surface.  There doesn't appear to be a ton of speed in the Jaipur and Bergerac may use his excellent tactical foot to get the jump on logical late-kickers like RIGHT ONE.

Selections:  BERGERAC, RIGHT ONE, SHINTOH

BROOKLYN HANDICAP (RACE 10):

Unlike the Jaipur, the Brooklyn seems to have a good amount of speed, especially for a 12-furlong jaunt on the main track.  In my multi-race wagers, my two key horses are NOT ABROAD and EYE ON JACOB.  The former stretches out past nine furlongs for the first time in his career (he hasn't won at that distance), but is in excellent form.  He took the $50,000 Joseph French Memorial Stakes over a solid field at Delaware in his seasonal debut, has won three of his last five races with solid numbers and would benefit from a good pace up front. 

Eye On Jacob could be compromised by the presence of other speed horses, but the well-bred 6-year-old put together a pair of fast races earlier this year and enters fresh for Todd Pletcher.  I wouldn't be surprised if he takes another forward move here.

Selections:  EYE ON JACOB, NOT ABROAD, BOXEUR DES RUES

***

Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures from last week's races (5/28/12 - 6/3/12):

1.  SHACKLEFORD - 115 - Metropolitan Handicap (G1) - 1 Mile - Belmont
2.  GAME ON DUDE - 114 - Californian Stakes (G2) - 1 1/8 Miles (Cushion Track) - Betfair Hollywood
3.  NATES MINESHAFT - 107 - Lone Star Park Handicap (G3) - 1 1/16 Miles - Lone Star
3.  ROMAN THREAT - 107 - Los Angeles Handicap (G3) - 6 Furlongs (Cushion Track) - Betfair Hollywood
5.  BUFFUM - 105 - OC 50k/N2X -N - 1 Mile - Belmont
6.  WHERE'S STERLING - 103 - Memorial Day Handicap - 1 1/16 Miles - Calder
7.  CONTESTED - 101 - Acorn Stakes (G1) - 1 Mile - Belmont
8.  STREAKIN' MOHICAN - 100 - Arapahoe Sprint Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Arapahoe
9.  ROD'S FIVE STAR - 99 - OC 40k/N3X -N - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Parx
10. C C'S PAL - 98 - Vagrancy Handicap (G2) - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Belmont
10. NONIOS - 98 - Affirmed Handicap (G3) - 1 1/16 Miles (Cushion Track) - Betfair Hollywood
10. RAGING SIX - 98 - OC 32k/N2X -N - 6 Furlongs - Monmouth
13. CALLED TO SERVE - 97 - Alw 54350N1X - 1 1/8 Miles (Cushion Track) - Betfair Hollywood
13. ROTHKO - 97 - Aristides Stakes (G3) - 6 Furlongs - Churchill
13. STORMY GOING - 97 - Alw 52735NC - 5 1/2 Furlongs (Tapeta) - Presque Isle
16. GUYS REWARD - 95 - OC 100k/C -N - 1 Mile (Turf) - Churchill
16. IT'S TRICKY - 95 - Ogden Phipps Handicap (G1) - 1 1/16 Miles - Belmont
16. RAUSCHENBERG - 95 - Alw 62000N3X - 6 Furlongs (Turf) - Hollywood
16. TAYLOR SAID - 95 - Winston Churchill Handicap - 1 1/16 Miles - Hastings
20. SOLAR ROCKET - 94 - Clm 25000(25-22.5) - 6 Furlongs (Cushion Track) - Hollywood
20. SURFRIDER (Ire) - 94 - OC 75k/N3X -N - 6 Furlongs (Turf) - Belmont
22. MARKETING MIX - 93 - Nassau Stakes (G2-C) - 1 Mile (Turf) - Woodbine
22. READYTODEFER - 93 - OC50k/SAL50k - 6 Furlongs - Belmont
22. SARATOGA SNACKS - 93 - Alw 57000N1X - 6 Furlongs - Belmont
22. STEALCASE - 93 - OC 75k/N1X -N - 1 Mile - Churchill
22. THE HUNK - 93 - John J. Reilly Handicap - 6 Furlongs - Monmouth
 
SHACKLEFORD'S lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.

GAME ON DUDE was tremendous in winning the Californian and seems primed for another strong performance in the upcoming Hollywood Gold Cup.  Chantal Sutherland took the race right to MORNING LINE and The Dude disdainfully flicked that one away with 5/16ths of a mile to run.  It appears as if the ill-fated trip to Dubai took little out of the Bob Baffert-trained runner.

SARATOGA SNACKS looks like an interesting 3-year-old for trainer Gary Sciacca.  A $60,000 yearling purchase, Saratoga Snacks is a New York-bred son of Tale of the Cat.  After finishing second in his career debut over muddy going at Saratoga, Saratoga Snacks won second-out with a 76 Beyer.  He went on the shelf after that promising victory with a fractured right pastern, but returned with a flourish last week, taking an entry-level allowance with a 93 Beyer Speed Figure.

***

NOTABLES ON THE WORKTAB (5/28/12 - 6/3/12):

*ACCLAMATION (Bruised right front foot + Signs of unsoundness in ankle) - 1M - 1:41.20B  - Betfair Hollywood (turf, dogs) - June 1
*ALL STAR HEART (Splint right front leg) - 7F - 1:28.80H - Betfair Hollywood (turf, dogs) - June 3
*BEAR IT'S TIME (undisclosed) - 3F - 38.00B - Woodbine (training) - May 31
*FREEDOMS TRAVELLER (hairline fracture left front ankle) - 5F - 1:03.80H - Northlands - June 2
*EXCAPER (EPM) - 5F - 1:01.80B - Woodbine - June 3
*FORMAGGIO (cut right hind heel) - 5F - 1:03.40B - Churchill - June 3
*ISMENE (ankle chip) - 4F - 52.40H - Betfair Hollywood - May 29
*JOHN JOHNY JAK (colic surgery) - 5F - 58.80H - Betfair Hollywood - June 3
*OPEN WATER (bone crack shin) - 5F - 1:02.40H - Santa Anita - June 2
*RAVELO'S BOY (grabbed heel) - 6F - 1:11.80H - Calder - June 3
*RULE (bruised left hind foot) - 4F - 48.56B - Belmont - June 3
*RULER ON ICE (sore) - 3F - 36.00B - Monmouth - June 3
*STARS TO SHINE (condylar fracture) - 5F - 59.80B - Woodbine - June 2
*SURREY STAR (heat in suspensory ligaments right front leg) - 5F - 1:02.80H - Santa Anita - June 1
*WELL KEPT (chip right front ankle) - 3F - 37.58B - Belmont - June 3

***

Please check out the latest video production from Jessica Pacheco, Racing Analyst at Arlington Park.  It's the "Behind the Silks" video series following jockey Tim Thornton through his ups and downs at this year's Arlington meet.

"Orland Hills"
In episode 2, join Tim as he heads to the Grand Opening of the new OTB, Sam's in Orland Hills. Learn more as Tim looks back on the month of May - explaining how blinkers helped a rank filly to focus and win, and talking about a spooky incident at the starting gate.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZbiBsTYuJrU

http://www.arlingtonpark.com/newsvideosblogs/behind-silks

***

Dan,
A little off topic but can you post the pick 4 payoff for the last four Belmont's where a triple crown was on the line?
Anonymous

2008-- Big Brown's Attempt: $2 Pick 4 1/5/10/6 4 of 4 34287.00
2004-- Smarty Jone's Attempt: $2 Pick 4 1,4/3/5/4 4 of 4 7309.00
2003-- Funny Cide's Attempt: $2 Pick 4 2/5/3,10,12,13,14,15/1 4 of 4 271.00
2002-- War Emblem's Attempt: Didn't offer Pick 4 wagering.
RickMarciniak

***

Dan, of the past 11 horses going for the TC and losing the Belmont, how many had run a race over the track?
Anonymous

"Anonymous"
Only 3 horses had had a previous race on the Belmont track.
Funny Cide, Pleasant Colony, and Spectacuar Bid.
See below
­.--------------------------------------­-----------------
I posted this on a previous thread:
Wednesday, ‎May ‎23, ‎2012, ‏‎12:14:16 PM
freecharm
After looking at Whirlaways pps', I REALLY got interested.
So I checked the 11 horses who won the Ky Derby/Preakness and did not win The Belmont, to see if they had a prevous race on the Belmont track.
These from pp's in the 'Champions' book.
In short:
-None of the CA horses had a previous run on The Belmont track.
-Some of the other horses did not either.
-Those who had , did not win this third leg.
2008- Big Brown - No prior race at BEL
2004- Smarty Jones - No prior race at BEL
2003- Funny Cide - preps as a 2 yo at BEL
9/8/02 6F 43K MSW -won
9/29/02 7F 75K Bertran S.-won
10/19/02 1M 100K Sleepy Hollow - won
2002- War Emblem - No prior race at BEL
1999 - Charismatic (CA) - No prior race at BEL
1998 - Real Quiet (CA) No prior race at BEL
1997 - Silver Charm (CA) No prior race at BEL
1989 - Sunday Silence (CA) No prior race at BEL
1987 Alysheba (CA) No prior race at BEL
1981 - Pleasant Colony - prep as a 2 yo at BEL
4/1/80 7F MSW - ran 6th
1979 - Spectacular Bid - prep as a 2 yo at BEL
10/8/78 1M Champagne S- won
2009 - I'll Have Another (CA) - No prior race at BEL
I guess we will see if history repeats or not . Hope you find this tid bit' of information interesting, and or useful :)
SR Vegas

***

Dan Illman,
Any truth to a comment I heard that no horse has ever won the
Belmont Stakes with a Tomlinson rating of less than 300?
okiesharp

In last year's Belmont, RULER ON ICE's listed Tomlinson was 207*

I'm fairly certain that there have been other winners that had Tomlinson Distance Ratings of less than 300.

***

Bizzy Caroline's time in the ladies turf stake was average. 1:43.3 was only about a click better than $30k claimers a bit earlier. Expecting low Beyer but will see when Dan posts
DavidM

Bizzy Caroline received an 87 Beyer for her victory in the Grade 3 Mint Julep Handicap at Churchill Downs on June 2.

***

MKB UPDATE:
GR3 Affirmed Stakes:
LAURA'S Liaison - 2nd
HAIRY'S Holy Candy - 3rd
DAN ILLMAN'S Blingo - 5th
I don't know, Dan, Blingo sure hasn't run to expectations has he? You just don't seem to have any luck in the MKB.
Baffert's Gun Boat did his job, but Liaison still couldn't get it done.
Annie

Annie, I'm hoping he's a turf horse like Mr. Commons, his stablemate.  If not, my record of futility in the MKB continues...

***

Congrats to BreeAnn Reiner for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling exercise. 

Penn National Rick's results spreadsheet is available at the bottom of the blog post.

Let's go with the Belmont Stakes for this week's event.  NOTE THERE WILL BE BROOKLYN/BELMONT DAILY DOUBLE "WAGERING" ALLOWED.

REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.

PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.
 
Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."
 
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.
 
Please post your plays and analysis to the blog. 

PLEASE GIVE YOUR NAME OR BLOG MONIKER AT THE END OF THE HG PLAY AND/OR ANALYSIS.
 
Please separate the play from the analysis and label the play "HG" with the program numbers (instead of the horse's name) for easier scoring.

In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per person please.
 
I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.
 
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.

Best of luck to all.

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Shackleford.pdf59.6 KB
HGBELMONT.pdf322.7 KB
Formblog Contest 6-1-2012.xls28 KB