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Bob Baffert can do no wrong.
The white-haired Hall of Famer has won with 8 of his last 10 starters. Since February 5, Baffert's record stands at 19-12-0-3. That's good enough for 63% winners and $878,550 in earnings. Bettors playing blindly on Baffert-trained runners during that stretch were rewarded with a $4.16 ROI.
*Baffert isn't winning with any old ham-and-eggers, by the way. He swept both divisions of the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn on Presidents' Day with CASTAWAY and SECRET CIRCLE (for the record, Baffert is 9-12, 75%, $4.91 ROI over the past five years at Oaklawn) and DRILL rebounded from five straight losses (three as the favorite) to post a nose victory in the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita.
*ELLAFITZ, a five-year-old mare by Tiznow, fought off all challenges in taking the Grade 2 Santa Maria Stakes in gate-to-wire fashion and has now won four of her last five races dating back to July.
*The Baffert roll began with GAME ON DUDE's popular score in the Grade 2 San Antonio Stakes, a win that cemented his status as one of the best older males in the country.
*BODEMEISTER moved onto the Triple Crown trail with a dominating 9 1/4 length maiden win at one mile on February 11. Bodemeister earned a 99 Beyer Speed Figure.
Here's my "Under the Radar" column on Bodemeister from February 13:
http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-2012-under-radar-bodemeister
*FED BIZ, a $950,000 yearling purchase by Giant's Causeway, made it two in a row for Baffert with a 97-Beyer victory in an entry-level optional claimer going a mile on February 9. Fed Biz is a half-brother to stakes-winning router Spun Silk out of a stakes-winning half-sister to Grade/Group 1 winners Tale of the Cat and Minardi. He seems destined for graded stakes and is on many Kentucky Derby "short lists."
*Making his first start following a 199-day layoff, AWESOMEMUNDO, a 4-year-old filly by Awesome Again, whipped 'n2x' optional claimers by 7 1/2 lengths with a career-best 93 Beyer. Awesomemundo won twice on synthetics in 2011, but the most recent race was her first outing on dirt and she may have found her niche.
*PAYNTER, a $325,000 yearling purchase at the 2010 Keeneland September auction, made a winning career debut at the 2-5 favorite in a four-horse maiden affair on February 18. Paynter trailed early, but rallied to win by 4 1/4 lengths with a 79 Beyer. He is by Awesome Again out of an unplaced full sister to two-time Breeders' Cup Classic hero Tiznow. Paynter is a half-brother to Grade 3 turf winner Tiz West, stakes-winning sprinter Tizakitty and stakes-placed Tizalovelylady.
*MIDNIGHT CROONER, a full brother to 2011 Santa Anita Derby winner MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE, won his maiden in his third lifetime attempt on February 18. After failing twice on dirt at Santa Anita, Baffert sent Midnight Crooner north to Golden Gate and the colt responded with a 7 1/2-length win in a maiden special weight over Tapeta (88 Beyer). Midnight Crooner may get another opportunity to shine on dirt, but may be best suited to grass down the road.
*MAMMA KIMBO, a first-time starter by Discreet Cat out of multiple stakes-winner Bag Lady Jane (10-4-0-3, 233K in earnings), scorched six furlongs in 1:07.94 en route to a 101-Beyer win on February 18. A $120,000 yearling purchase, Mamma Kimbo went off a tepid 6-1, surprising considering Baffert's hot few weeks.
*PRINCESS ARABELLA, a 3-year-old filly by Any Given Saturday, made it 2 for 2 for Baffert with an entry-level allowance win at seven furlongs on February 12. Princess Arabella equaled the 85 Beyer from her winning debut and seems destined to stretch out in stakes. A $47,000 yearling buyback, Princess Arabella is a half-sister to stakes-winning turfer Dyna's Lassie out of a full sister to Kentucky Derby runner-up Invisible Ink.
*Looking for a horse for course? Try ABSINTHE MINDED, the recent winner of the Bayakoa Stakes at Oaklawn Park. Trained by Wayne Lukas, Absinthe Minded boasts a record of 9-5-2-1 at Oaklawn. At other venues, the 5-year-old mare is 19-1-3-2. Third behind eventual Horse of the Year Havre de Grace in both the 2011 Azeri and Apple Blossom at Oaklawn, Absinthe Minded may attempt to break a long streak of futility for Lukas-trained runners in graded stakes races (0-79 over the past two years).
*SENIORS PRIDE's triple-digit Beyer score in a $25,000 starter handicap at Aqueduct on February 10 may have trainer Todd Pletcher looking for bigger and better down the road. Claimed for $50,000 from David Jacobson in October, Seniors Pride will attempt to emulate CALIBRACHOA and CAIXA ELETRONICA as horses claimed by Pletcher and owner Mike Repole that went on to win graded stakes.
Here is this week's "Under the Radar" column featuring MY ADONIS:
http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-2012-under-radar-my-adonis
*Nice to see Kentucky Derby winner ANIMAL KINGDOM get back on the beam in his first start since suffering a hind leg injury in the 2011 Belmont Stakes. Animal Kingdom chalked up a victory on grass and the race looked like a good prep for a run in the Dubai World Cup. Although Animal Kingdom simply outclassed his opposition at Gulfstream, he was asked to do some running by John Velazquez, racing wide off moderate splits. Animal Kingdom got a good blow out of this race and it's quite possible he wasn't at 100% peak fitness for his first start back.
***
Here are the top 25 Winning Beyer Speed Figures from the week of 2/6/12 - 2/12/12:
1. HYMN BOOK - 106 - Donn Handicap (Grade 1) - 1 1/8 Miles - Gulfstream
2. WILL'S WILDCAT - 105 - OC 80k/C -N - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Gulfstream
3. SENIORS PRIDE - 100 - Hcp 25000s - 1 Mile 70 Yards (inner dirt) - Aqueduct
4. BODEMEISTER - 99 - Md Sp Wt 57k - 1 Mile - Santa Anita
4. FLAT BOLD - 99 - Alw 55350N$Y - 6 Furlongs - Parx
6. FED BIZ - 97 - OC 80k/N1X -N - 1 Mile - Gulfstream
6. GET STORMY - 97 - Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap (G1) - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Gulfstream
6. MAJESTIC EXPRESS - 97 - Alw 50000s - 1 Mile - Gulfstream
9. JOYFUL VICTORY - 95 - Tiffany Lass Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - Fair Grounds
9. STORMY'S MAJESTY - 95 - Mr. G.J.G. Stakes - 1 Mile 70 Yards (inner dirt) - Aqueduct
11. SLIM SHADEY (GB) - 94 - San Marcos Stakes (G2) - 1 1/4 Miles (Turf) - Santa Anita
12. FEDERATION (GB) - 93 - OC 32k/N2X -N - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Tampa Bay
12. OUTTA TUNE - 93 - Alw 5000s - 6 Furlongs - Oaklawn
12. SILVER MAGNUS - 93 - OC 35k/N2X -N - 6 Furlongs - Oaklawn
12. THUNDER MOCCASIN - 93 - Hutcheson Stakes (G2) - 7 Furlongs - Gulfstream
16. CYCLOMETER - 92 - Md Sp Wt 67k - 6 Furlongs - Santa Anita
16. GREAT MILLS - 92 - Champion Energy Services Stakes - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - Sam Houston
16. SPECTACULAR SKY - 92 - OC 40k/N1X -N - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Santa Anita
19. CASH FOR CLUNKERS - 91 - OC 25k/N1X -N - 1 Mile 70 Yards (inner dirt) - Aqueduct
19. CONCORDE'S FLIGHT - 91 - OC 25k/N1X -N - 5 Furlongs - Gulfstream
19. JOINEM - 91 - OC 80k/N3X -N - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Gulfstream
19. OUR CHOICE - 91 - Soc 34000(15-12.5) - 5 1/2 Furlongs - Sunland
19. SNOW TOP MOUNTAIN - 91 - Suwannee River Stakes (G3) - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Gulfstream
24. CARBONITE - 90 - Alw 64050C - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - Santa Anita
24. CITY SAGE - 90 - Alw 42000NC - 6 Furlongs - Sunland
24. EL VINO - 90 - Clm 40000(40-35) - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - Santa Anita
24. MALIBU KID - 90 - Hcp 35000 - 7 Furlongs - Charles Town
24. WRITINGONTHEWALL - 90 - Clm 30000(30-25)B - 1 Mile (inner dirt) - Aqueduct
*HYMN BOOK's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.
***
Here are the top 25 Winning Beyer Speed Figures from the week of 2/13/12 - 2/19/12:
1. FORCE FREEZE - 108 - Gulfstream Park Sprint Championship (G2) - 7 Furlongs - Gulfstream
2. MAMMA KIMBO - 101 - Md Sp Wt 57k - 6 Furlongs - Santa Anita
3. MARILYN'S GUY - 99 - As Indicated Stakes - 1 Mile (inner dirt) - Aqueduct
4. JIMANATOR - 98 - John B. Campbell Handicap - 1 1/8 Miles - Laurel
4. THIS ONES FOR PHIL - 98 - Clm 100000(100-75) - 6 Furlongs (inner dirt) - Aqueduct
6. ABSINTHE MINDED - 97 - Bayakoa Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - Oaklawn
6. MAGICAL FEELING - 97 - Barbara Fritchie Handicap (G2) - 7 Furlongs - Laurel
8. PLUTONIUM - 96 - Dust Commander Stakes - 1 Mile (polytrack) - Turfway
8. QUICK MONEY - 96 - Alw 60760N1X - 6 Furlongs (inner dirt) - Aqueduct
10. CORPORATE JUNGLE - 95 - Alw 42500N1X - 1 Mile (Turf) - Gulfstream
10. KOAST - 95 - Md Sp Wt 57k - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - Santa Anita
10. QUICK ENOUGH - 95 - Clm c-(32-30) - 6 Furlongs (Tapeta) - Golden Gate
10. TERODA - 95 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - Santa Anita
14. CATINATREE - 94 - OC 35k/N2X - 6 Furlongs - Hawthorne
14. DRILL - 94 - San Vicente Stakes (G2) - 7 Furlongs - Santa Anita
14. ITALIAN RULES - OC 62k/N2X -N - 6 Furlongs (Tapeta) - Golden Gate
14. STRONG STAR - 94 - Clm c-(12.5-10.5) - 1 Mile (Tapeta) - Golden Gate
18. AWESOMEMUNDO - 93 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 1/16 Miles - Santa Anita
18. FUTURE GENERATION (Ire) - 93 - OC 100k/C -N - 1 Mile (Turf) - Gulfstream
18. R HOLIDAY MOOD - 93 - Hurricane Bertie Stakes (G3) - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Gulfstream
18. TAWAARED - 93 - Clm c-(25-20) - 7 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - Gulfstream
22. ANIMAL KINGDOM - 92 - OC 80k/N3X -N - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Gulfstream
22. CHOSEN MIRACLE - 92 - OC 62k/N2X -Nc - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - Santa Anita
22. DADDY NOSE BEST - 92 - El Camino Real Derby (G3) - 1 1/8 Miles (Tapeta) - Golden Gate
25. NIGHT VISION - 91 - Alw 42000N1X - 6 Furlongs - Oaklawn
25. ROMAN INVASION - 91 - Clm 25000(25-22.5)N3L - 7 1/2 Furlongs - Gulfstream
25. SIGNSEALNDELIVER - 91 - OC 35k/N2X -N - 6 Furlongs - Hawthorne
25. SIR BOND - 91 - Md Sp Wt 38k - 1 1/16 Miles - Fair Grounds
*FORCE FREEZE's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.
*QUICK ENOUGH was claimed for $32,000 by trainer Ed Moger Jr. from John Martin
*STRONG STAR was claimed for $12,500 by trainer William Morey from Martin.
*TAWAARED was claimed for $20,000 by trainer Julio Cartagena from Edward Coletti.
***
Congrats to Randy for finishing first in the most recent HandiGambling exercise. Let's go with Friday's ninth race at Tampa Bay Downs for our next contest. Please note that our official scorekeeper, tencentcielo, is dealing with some personal matters and may not be able to tabulate this week's results. If you'd like to fill in and give me a hand with this week's scoring, please post to the blog.
PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.
Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.
Please post your plays and analysis to the blog.
PLEASE GIVE YOUR NAME OR BLOG MONIKER AT THE END OF THE HG PLAY AND/OR ANALYSIS.
Please separate the play from the analysis and label the play "HG" with the program numbers (instead of the horse's name) for easier scoring.
In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per person please.
I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
ONCE THE RESULTS ARE DECLARED OFFICIAL, WINNERS WILL BE ASKED TO CONTACT CSERVICE2@DRF.COM FOR INFORMATION ON HOW TO RECEIVE THEIR PRIZE PACKAGE.
Best of luck to all.
| Attachment | Size |
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| ForceFreeze.pdf | 68.21 KB |
| HymnBook.pdf | 61.53 KB |
| HG271.pdf | 190.84 KB |
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heylaserbeam/PGM,
Hahahaha............I caught your stealth reference to our favorite "bet against"!
To Everyone,
In the interest of continuity, if your new sign in name for the new blog format is different from your old moniker from the previous format, would you please let us know? There are some people I am missing and hoping to see. Two off the top of my head, where are you Ron Z and C??????
GertyGolittle, You are KNM, right?
TBTA
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BTW
I just copied and pasted from the comments box with no problem. Maybe you folks need to get a Mac?
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PH thoughts for Saturday
I will wait a few hours to post this in case there are scratches, but here is where I stand now
Tampa Bay Stakes
Lentenor - fast, won last, won 2/4, 3/4 ITM
Successful Mission - Late, backspeed, won a G3 on turf
C - Moryba - 2nd and 3rd in G2's, won two back
The Very One
Perfect Shirl - won G1 last out, ITM last four, late
Keertana - has won at GP, won three G3 turf routes, holder
Casablanca Smile - last six ITM, won a G3, game
Mineshaft
Pants on Fire - class edge, won a G3 two back, good works
Thiskyhasnolimit - Fast, won this here last out, W/P in G3s, beat foes
Tres Borrachos - fast, won a G2, 4X ITM in graded
Risen Star
ZDager - Just missed vs Mr. Bowling last, steady improvement
Mark Valeski - won last 2 vs. lower, steady improvement, though no routes
Mr. Bowling - won a G3 route here last out to beat foes
Good luck to all!
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10 cent
good morning put me down for a fat O in the HG
thanks dan
MH01
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Anonymous
*******ANNIE*******
Do you prefer Anonymous *******ANNIE******** or *******ANNIE******* Anonymous? Although the latter does sound like a support group for "ANNIES" :)
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General question
Can someone explain what these thumbs up / thumbs down icon/symbols are for ?
and if they can be removed?
Thanks
SR Vegas
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Annie
..Please check your EMAIl, thank you!
SR Vegas
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Bernard Downes,
My next project is to document the sire lines of the German Derby winners - I started on it a while back and need to finish it.
One sire line I know that dwarfs Mr. Prospector and, perhaps, is on par with Northern Dancer is Dark Ronald which has produced 25 German Derby winners including Acatenango - the damsire of Animal Kingdom. There may also be some other outstanding lines - Monsun, Ticino.
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Dan Higdon
I'm reposting this from Laura ...who sets up a RTTR League for the Blue Boxers and Thongs.
--------------------------------------------------------------
February 15, 2012
01:00 PM
Posted by Laura
Fellow Thongs & Boxers,
It's that time of year again. The annual Road To The Roses Contest (a/k/a RTTR). As I have for the last four years, I've set up the DRF BLUE BOXERS AND THONGS League. Here's how to enter.
Go to http://www.roadtotheroses.com and sign up. If you've signed up in previous years, you don't need to sign up again, just enter your stable name and password.
2. Create your stable. Select 15 horses, 2 jockeys & 2 trainers, name and verify your stable, then pick 2 power horse.
3. Once your stable is created, you can join a league. On the left side of the webpage, you will see your stable name. Under your stable name you will find the titles in light gray "Power Horses "Remaining Stable" and "Stable name Leagues" Under "Leagues" you will find a link to join or manage a league.
4. The "Create or Join a League page will appear. Click on Join A League. Enter the following:
League Identifier: 647939968
Activation Code: 2173828917
You can create up to three stables.
5. Here are the rules of the game: http://www.roadtotheroses.com/G=98/official_rules.phtml
Every week, you will pick 3 horses from your stable as power horses for the upcoming stakes races. You can add horses during the two supplemental draft periods (March 19 & April 16). I'll post when the drafts are open, plus you'll receive a reminder email from RTTR.
Every week, I'll post the leaders in the game. If you have any questions, please email me at: lross@ironmaidensthoroughbreds.com
Laura
Uh oh, here we go again with blog changes. Hope it goes more smoothly than last time. Remember, if we have problems posting, it isn't Dan's fault, so don't shoot the sheriff!
-------------------------
AND the HG results look like a runaway this week, But we'll wait for Dan to make the final call. Ed Kay ...a job well done! WOW!
Thanks Jeanne ...I did manage to get a piece of this HG with $870.50 :)
SR Vegas
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Van Savant:
"Actually, they (DRF) do give you a break, I signed up for the $100 plan and they only charged me $130" to P_Ensign.
That's close enough to come just about to Damon Runyon's dictum that "In Life, it's 6 to 5 against you." By which he meant, you just can't beat the house!
Keith L.
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SR Vegas,
Nice $5 ex box of 3/10!!!
Jeanne
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HG Redboard!
I complete forgot about the HG today, as I was having much to much fun this morning looking for name plays, then had to go shopping for a grandson's birthday present, and get it in the mail.
My strategy for this race was gooing to be simply to take the three horses NOT entered for a price in a $15 boxed trifecta...#1 Charging World, #3 Crimson Knight, and #10 Waitin' on Somethin' , and bet $10 to win on the latter.
Better late than never, SR Vegas?
Keith L.
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Annie,
Please add me to the list for derby horses. Yes, I know I have Liaison, but the KY Jockey Club has ruled against rockets up the posterior of horses running in the KY Derby. My Input is too busy mounting ponies and trailblazing through the Payson Park shrubbery. Maybe now we know why his name is "Input." Wednesday morning he looked positively hungover, probably from being up late partying with the stable pony. Of course, my whispering "snip, snip" under my breath may have contributed.
Calvin,
Nice work on the TC sire lines, but you do this every year. I hope you have the info saved so you can re-post annually, lol.
Everyone,
CHAT IS AT 9:00 PM at the IMT CHAT ROOM.
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Whacky,
Nice to see you posting. I didn't see that Slewster you mentioned @Aqu. Just like your bridge jumping plays, they are there if you look for them. I can't see them all. I need some help along the way........Good job noticing though....I especially like the way you described it. A wire to wire winner. Right up my alley...Speed kills..
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BlackSeaBaZZ........are you lurking and not posting?
Where is the BSB ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ?
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Calvin,
Thanks for the Derby info. Game, set and match to Canada I suggest.
Keith,
My Italian travels never took me to Vicenza. I have been to football in Milan, Turin, Genoa. Bologna, Naples, Sardinia and Rome; and once to the trotting races in Milan.
Best Regards - Bernard Downes
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Friends;
Okay…let’s see…the Girl’s High School Swim season is over…the Short Course
Yards Swimming Season is over…and it will be a month or so before the Long
Course Meters Swim Season begins, so I can get back into the swing of
things with my other passion…
I have been handicapping races since opening day of Santa Anita, but I
have only played twice this year, and the last time was early January. I
have been following Gulfstream a bit, and I intend to get out tomorrow and
see the boys, have a beer, and play a few races.
Here are my early thoughts on tomorrow’s Gulfstream Park card;
5th - WARM HUGS (#7) looks pretty good in here, but the layoff is a bit of
a concern. She is working smartly, however. AFFAIR DABBLER (#5) has some
recency and was somewhat competitive in her last two. FAMOUS (#1) owns a
win over this strip has some recency, and the trainer/jockey combination
here is too good to ignore.
6th – HOT ROOTS (#6) is one that I will be paying attention to. I like
the slight turnback, close to the pace style, worktab, and connections.
10/1? Really?
7th – ARGENTINE TANGO (#2) warrants a look in here based on his last two
turf efforts at Gulfstream. Blinkers On seems to suit him and he is
working well coming into this. OUR ENTOURAGE (#9) is logical based on the
connections and the “class drop”, although this is a pretty evenly matched
bunch. EASY CROSSING (#8) looked okay in his debut for Trainer Clement
and may have a forward leap based on that. GODARD (#7) has shown a
deftness for closing strongly and should be in the mix. FILM SHOT (#12)
is another to keep an eye on, although the likelihood for being used in
the pace is a strong possibility.
10th – CASABLANCA SMILE (#5) is one I will be be watching closely, and if
the odds are good (>7/1), she may be worth a stab. This is a tough race
for me to find an alternative to the top one…
11th – THE CAT’S ALL THAT (#4) is a usable longshot in here based on her
running style, breeding and connections. She is working well and just may
upend the top two in here…
Let me know your thoughts, good people. I feel like the Tin Man and I may
need you all to apply a little oil…it’s been awhile…
vs
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Bernard Downes,
The Northern Dancer sire line has dominated worldwide – especially in Europe. Epsom Derby descendants of Northern Dancer include:
2011 - Pour Moi
2009 – Sea The Stars
2008 – New Approach
2007 – Authorized
2005 – Motivator
2004 – North Light
2002 – High Chaparral
2001 – Galileo
2000 – Sinndar
1999 – Oath
1995 – Lammtarra
1994 - Erhaab
1993 – Commander in Chief
1991 – Generous
1988 – Kahyasi
1986 – Shahrastani
1984 – Secreto
1982 – Golden Fleece
1977 – The Minstrel
1970 – Nijinsky (English Triple Crown winner)
In the Irish Derby, there have only been 4 Derby winners since 1982 that were not Northern Dancer sire line descendants:
1985 – Law Society, Ribot sire line
1987 – Sir Harry Lewis, Ribot sire line
1992 – St. Jovite, Ribot sire line
2004 – Grey Swallow, Nasrullah sire line
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SRVegas
Put me down for $765.60 for a $33 ATB on #10 Waitin' On Somethin
Good luck to all this weekend (except those running against Discreet Dancer on Sunday).
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HG 271
Speed wins
Results 10-3-1-9
Looks like Ed Kay crushed it with a $100 straight ex 10-3 !!
Ex paid $348.00 Tri paid $1,585.40 Super Paid $6,76520 for a $1
Winner wired the field and paid $28.40
Hope some had it 4 real...
Whackymacky Out!!!
PS My #3 never went past the #10....
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From my calculations, here is the scoreboard. I, by no means, am official, but I figure I would help Dan out.
Joe L. $230.90
J. Ryan $980.00
T. Thumb $870.50
E. Kay $17,410.00
N. Daly $765.60
M. Ryan $28.40
T. Kopietz $1,392.80
K. Ille $348.20
Spafan1
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Really nice call Mr. Kay! I hope you had real money on that too.
Spafan1
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Annie:
I see you included me in the list of 2nd draw candidates for my mis-fire in self pick of A Single Man who became a claimer, and wasn't nominated (yet!..he he he) Thank you very much....however, I do feel sorry for mpm101 who spoke up and claimed my original Genie drawnb MKB, discarded Handsome Mike. As you might suspect, I am reserving the right to "donate" my 2nd draw to mpm101 if he really want's a horse that has a snowballs chance in hell of going on to the Derby.
I do have a line on a couple of 3 yr olds I think you might not have included...and if VQ wants to jettison Drill, I might be interested in taking him for the IMT Stable just to "p o" Laura (and TBTA)....ha ha ha! Of course, SR Vegas, adoptor of the unloved and untalented, just might want him too!
Keith L.
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HG
$32 Tri 1/7/8
$24 Tri 1/7/36
$20 Tri 1/7/9
jimi
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HG 271
#1 Charging Home had a nice win coming back from a 3 month layoff and could improve. I’m going to play him over the outside horses in a super.
$4 Superfecta 1 over 7,8,9,10 = $96
$4 Win 1
2 Minutes to Post
4:23 p.m. EST
Bear
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HG 271
Looks like #3 has the speed and the class. Let's play the following:
$1 Tri Wheel #3 / all / all = $72
$28 to win #3
= $100
Good Luck all.
Thanks Dan...
Whackymacky Out!!!
PS No Chantal today. Keep an eye on Kayla Stra..She has a couple of live one's today.
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I 2 have settled on the thrice aforementioned cold deck 1/7 exacta >>there's the quick and the hungry>3-6-8-9
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Mile races seem to be a distinct specialty and I'm going to go with those that have already shown a preference. I've only been to Tampa Bay Downs a few times, but if memory serves, the turns on the turf course are relatively sharp so I'm going to look for the handier type of horses.
#3 Crimson Knight -- has been in the $ all 3 of his mile starts and ran against some salty characters last year
#1 Charging Home --Already won on this course and seemed to be speedy enough to be in contention for the last half
#6Vanquisher -- good mile stats and maybe the one most likely to take advantage of brisk pace that might develop and like to see Jr. back in action
#7 Beckham Bend -- well-traveled turfer obviously in over his head in last, seems reliable to at least minor spot
#5 Terrifico --the angle horse -- This jockey trainer combo hot in the last 2 months
$1 Tri 1,3,6-1,3,6,7-1,3,5,6,7 =$27
$5 Exacta 1,3,6 box =$30
$10 WPS #3 =$30
$6 P#1 =$6
$6 S #6=$6
$1 to Old Friends
Best of luck all,
nancyb
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Calvin,
Because You Feel Lucky was commenting on a bunch of Euro horses, I rather took the subject to be wider than the US Triple Crown.
As I keep saying on here, pedigree analysis is not my strong point, but I did come across an undated article in the Thoroughbred Times which said that Bold Ruler and Nasrullah had similar % stakes winners as Northern Dancer, but that "their male lines had been overshadowed in the last 25 years by Northern Dancer's line".
I could not begin to vouch for that assessment, I will leave that to the experts, but what I do know is that Northern Dancer had the most profound beneficial influence on Euro racing since I have been following the sport.
Best Regards - Bernard Downes
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Curt V
I hope that you had that 7th race winner at Aqueduct today...
A nice Seattle Slew bloodline play that only went wire to wire and paid: #8 Fiddlers Diva
$21.20 to Win and $7.40 to Place. Some nice doubles onto 4 into the 8th..
Only 1 bridge Jumper play so far today.... Race 1 at Aqueduct
#6 had $14,156 out of $20,699 bet into the show pool......won the race
Good Luck today....Pick 6 play at SA. Should be $800K in the pool on a Friday carryover day...Somebody hit it....please...
Whackymacky Out!!!
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HG 271
$.90 superfecta 2-5-10 // 2-5-10 // 1-3-8 // 6-7-9 = $48.60
$.90 superfecta 6-7-9 // 1-3-8 // 2-5-10 // 2-5-10 = $48.60
Total $97.20
Ten cent superfecta multiple times. I never thought I'd see the day.
TurfRuler
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HG 271
#8 My Charming Clyde
Not going to try and beat Ness. Horse has also run well here in the past.
#6 Vanquisher
Lots of back class. Aging warrior must be respected.
#3 Crimson Knight
Throw out last. Bullet work and fondness for the track makes him very dangerous.
#1 Charging Home
Came back running. Like the Jockey/trainer combo.
Wager:
$50 tri: 8/ 6/ 3 $50
$25 Superfecta: 8/ 6/ 1,3/ 1,3 $50
bobc
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#1 Charging Home & #7 Beckham Bend are both in fine form. I'll put them over #4 Lengendary King. A longshot that has shown some affinty for the turf and as a 4YO third off a layoff will at his best.
Hey I'm taking a shot.....
HG 271
$50 Exactas
1,7/ 4
Alfredo
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HG 271 $11 EX BX 7-8 ($22)
$5 TRI BX 7-8-10 ($30)
$2 SUPER BX 6-7-8-10 ($48)
#7 BECKHAM BEND appears to be the class of the race. Throw out last where he was obviously overmatched and he stands out among these.
#8 MY CHARMING CLYDE has a few things going for him, for one, he is 2 for 5 on the turf. and seems to have a chance here. Really liked the article by Andy Beyer on the trainer Jamie Ness a few days ago. Wins half his races so far this season, and he has sent 96 to post and you just can't pass that up. Beyer offered up that trainer wins races in spots where his horse is unlikely, so in a spot where his horse looks competitive, he should do well.
#10 WAITIN ON SOMTHIN looks as though he has found his element on grass, finishing in the money in both he's run. Should continue his good fortune with Beyer numbers that match up well with these.
#6 VANQUISHER only gets in with these for a claiming price, having won a N3X three races back. I also like horses coming out of no-condition allowance races where anybody could have put a runner in, particularly if they did well in finishing.
Good luck to all.
Esquire Ray
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As I'm posting late. I will go with Yankee connection. It's been working okay, gets blinkers and this would be a race I'd normally look for a price. Unless the ML turns out to be true I'm thinking I will get alot better than 7/2.
HG play
50 WP 2
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Are you going to be running a Road the Roses league this year?
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*******ANNIE********
OK good. My list of MKB eligibles did show up now. It's already back on page 2.
I'll be having a hectic weekend, so I will do the draw early next week.
Annie
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HG 271
$4 Super Box 1-4-7-9 for $96
$4 Win on 4
1--Charging Home is consistent and fits well with this level.He is familiar with the distance and has a top trainer and proficient pilot in Guidry.
4--Legendary King is my longshot for the big payoff. He has been in the money nearly 50 percent of his races.
Beckham Bend -- Likely favorite but I think it would be foolish to leave him out of any exotic wager. New jockey is question mark.
9--Blazen has good speed has faced some of these without good result. But this will be his day with a new rider. He has a good turf record as well.
Those I left out and why:
2--Yankee Connection. Low class ranking.
3--Crimson Knight--STOPPED in last. What is ailing him. I don't want to bet and find out later.
5--Terriffico-- Lacks speed and has not won on the grass.
6--Vanquisher Came to life in last outing but bid was mild and not enough to beat some of these in today's heat.
8--My Charming Clyde--Trainer will get lots of action but the horse has to do the running. I don't like established sprinters running a mile.
10-Wait'nOnSumthin--Could be a tough customer but I see him fading in the stretch and closers passing him.
stuckinarizona (my blog moniker)
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Dan
I have a question that most likely will get lost in the hg mess, but if you don't see or respond I'll simply ask again later -
I'm curious why it's not possible to buy the local/regional edition of the Form on line. It would be ever so kind of the DRF to move into the 21st century and give online buyers a BREAK for not making you print up and distribute paper copies of the form.
At this point in time, with a new price hike for the hard copy, I wonder why you don't just offer a daily online version that would include the races I can bet at my simulcasting facility, but not include all the others from the various tracks that I can't. (To purchase the pps for 6 or 8 complete cards when I'm offered wagering on as little as two races from some tracks seems pretty wasteful.)
In almost all other realms, buying online/soft versions of printed matter costs less - with DRF it costs an arm, a leg, and a body part to be named later, MORE - the height of customer abuse, IMHO.
Also, a final little question - why on the west coast do I get Los Alamitos pps in the hard version of DRF. I'm pretty sure that most horseplayers couldn't care less about them, and every time you hike the price, and I see stuff I don't need, much less want, it just pisses me off that much more.
Of course, I ask these questions respectfully, as I am quite confident that none of the annoying things that your bosses do would be okayed if they had to pass through your veto...
pe
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HG271
tom bets
$2 superfecta box 1,3,8,10
$26 superfecta straight 3,8,10,1
$26 superfecta straight 1,10,8,3
tom dabom
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HG271
Cindy bets
$1 trifecta 5,8w1,3w4,7
$2 trifecta 1,2,10w3,4,9w7,8
$1 superfecta 1,8,10w4,8,9w4,7w3,4
$10 win 8
$10 win 5
Cindy
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Off topic:
VQ:
I'm pretty sure you are a American Idol fan, and most certainly a Stephen Tyler fan.
I think he is much more entertaining than was Simon Crowell myself.
I especially enjoyed his antics stripping down for a dive in the pool (moat) this week, but the freight into J-Lo, but perhaps his best moment to date was when addressing the question put to him by the 16 yr old contestant's father who had escorted her to her audition, responding to "How are you finding Savanah" with a smiling..,"It's Hot, Humid, and Happening, just like your daughter"! LOL!
Keith L.
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hg 271.
$60.00 win #1.
$2.00 tri box 1-7-3.
$2.00 exacta box, 1-7-3.
$16.00 exacta 1-7.
good luck to all.
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*****ANNIE********
Oh oh, two of my recent posts are missing. I posted them before my HG post. Both had come up with the waiting for moderation tag, so I did push post.
One was about when the MKB draw would be, and the other one was a complete list of those eligible for the draw. I sure hope I won't have to re-type that one. I'll wait a bit and see if they show up.
Annie
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Handi 271 picks:
20c superfecta box 2,3,5,8,10 = 72
$1 exacta box 3,5,8,10 = 24
$4 win 10
Joe L.
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HG
Liking the 9 here two back chased two that went around the track in lentenor and the 7 then last time chased what appeared to b another slow pace from a poor post
Should get pace today.
...........
10 tri key 9 w 1,5,6
4tri box 5,6,9
2 tri key 6 w 1,5,9
2 tri key 1 w 6,9
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$100 exacta 1/7
Bryant S.
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HG271
$ 3 Trifecta 8 / 1, 3, 6, 7, 9, 10 / 1, 3, 6, 7, 9, 10
$ 10 straight Exacta 8 over 3
Okiesharp
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Yuwipi,
I can well understand your hope to one day visit Anfield for a big football match. When we had large standing terraces in our football grounds, the 20,000 strong Kop singing "You'll Never Walk Alone" was one of the most spine tingling moments in sport.. It certainly affected some opposition players and helped to make Liverpool near invincible in their big European matches at Anfield.
Unfortunately, now that our stadiums have been modernised and become all-seater, the general atmosphere and the singing have been diluted. Its still okay at Anfield, but it will never be the same again.
Re your mention of "Scouser", don't worry its nothing rude. The people in many of the big English cities are tagged with a nickname (don't ask me why), its not just football fans. For instance, someone coming from Birmingham is called a "Brummie". From Newcastle, a "Geordie". From London a "Cockney" although it should more accurately be applied to a part of London only (i.e. within the sound of the Bow Church bells). So "Scousers" are simply people from Liverpool, nothing more than that. Is it derogatory? It can be, but some people wear their nickname with pride. I suppose it depends on context.
Best Regards - Bernard Downes
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HG271
6- Vanquisher is best at this distance on this course.
1- Charging Home won last start and goes for new barn.
3- Crimson Knight may like a little give to the ground.
9- Blazen has finished behind a few of these, might lead the way.
7- Beckham Bend looks good on paper but has had gaps in career, wants more distance?
HG wager:
$50 EX #7 with #1 & #3
Anderson
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Don't worry, folks, I've got this race in the bag.
El Padrino
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One for the Blue Thongs to back today at Guylfstream.
In the 2nd, a 1 mile Starter Allowance for 3 yr olds having gone for $50K Claiming price or under, the #2 JOY OF THE TOY, a Happy Altar homebred, comes in with Paco Lopez up for Spatz, While racingly greenly under pressure, this amusingly named guy won his maiden debut at 1 mile in a $50K Maiden Claimer here, and has worked nicely for this at Caldar...5-1 ML. Win/Place for me here.
Aqueduct's 4th Race is a $35K Maiden Claimer 6f for 3 yr olds, and while #6 Mr. Beer Goggles is the prohibitive fav off his early pace figs, the #7 horse Indian Pow Wow by a Utah bred (don't see that much) son of Indian Charlie out of a durable useful claiming mare by Island Whirl ran well enough in this class at Caldar before shiping up north for Jason Servis stable. Has a race on the circuit,, decent works at Belmont Training Track, and has journeyman Mike Luzzi. Oh, his daddy almost beat Buddy Gil for the 2003 Santa Anita Derby, and raced forwardly in the KY Derby although rank, but faded to 12th. He was obviously a hurt horse coming out of that as he was off until Dec of the next year when he showed up as the winner of an Allowance race at Sunland Park. So, the pedigree is there, although this one might be better going longer. He's 12-1 here and I'll take him across the board and in a Quinella with Mr. Beer Goggles.
Also a Win/Place for me on Najjaar in the 8th at Oaklawn, see post below.
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******ANNIE******
HG 271:
Well, I don't play Tampa Bay, but I'll give it a shot. I'll take the following 4 horses and box them in a Superfecta.
#1 - CHARGING HOME - Hoping he will come charging home as part of my Super. He has a good trainer and jockey, and has finished in the money in 63% of his 11 turf races, while winning 4 of them. He'll be making his 2nd start of the year, and his trainer is very good with that move (33%). Won his debut race in good time and is cutting back to a mile.
#3 - CRIMSON KNIGHT - He also is making his 2nd start of the year after stopping in his debut, but has been successful in the past. What I like about him is that his favorite jockey, Ronnie Allen Jr. (know him from when he used to ride at Canterbury) is back on for his 2nd start. I'm thinking the other jockey in his first start was told not to push him if he tired. He has two works since that debacle, including a bullet, so may run better now. Besides, I need a longshot in my Super. :)
#6 - VANQUISHER - (Neat name) This guy is getting a bit long in the tooth, but has still been competitive against better. The drop to claiming doesn't concern me because who is going to claim an 8-year-old for 32K. Besides, having won 10 races, I'm sure he would not be able to get in to this race except under the claim option. Has had very good come home times as well.
#7 - BECKHAM BEND - This one is getting older too and also in for the claiming price. Faced much tougher last time, and has finished first or second in 11 of his 16 starts. (Actually, that's not many starts for a 7-year-old, so he apparently has had his problems along the way.) However, he has achieved some good numbers and warrants inclusion in the Super, although I don't trust him for the win.
$4 Super Box: 1,3,6,7 = $96
$4 Win #6
Annie
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Curt V Slewster,
I hate to rain on your parade,but you are totally, completely and without a doubt 100% wrong about Mr.Prospector. A cursory glance at Pedigreequery.com will show that Mr. Prospector never ever had a crop of more than 50 live foals, and by the way, he did not have any fertility problems.
In 1976, his first year at stud, which was in Florida, there 25 live foals. In 1979, after he'd proven his success, 36. Around this time, he relocated to KY where Slew was just beginning his career. By the mid 1980's, the biggest year I could find for Mr. Prospector,was 49 live foals. I would hardly classify this as doing "anyone and anything" considering that 1986 was one of the all time highest years ever of total foal production, in excess of 36,000.
Also, the $1M club is not an exclusive membership of one. Northern Dancer, Mr Prospector and Storm Cat are all members too. Of that group, Storm Cat is the only stallion that ever saw a book over 100 mares. There is a reason that Mr. Reynolds, the owner of Overbrook Farm, built Storm Cat his very own special shelter designed to withstand an F-5 tornado. To this day, through artificial insemination, Storm Cat continues to provide an income stream to his owners due to the desire of quarter horse mare owners who consider his semen valuable.
In case you are not aware, Mr. Prospector stood at Claiborne, who to this day is still one of the most conservative farms when it comes to stallion management. Coolmore was the "pioneer" when it comes to huge books. Giant's Causeway could be the poster boy for "doing anyone and anything" as he averages more than 200 live foals and depending on how you count southern hemisphere, the number could be higher.
Check out the website, it's an eyeopener.
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Keith L,
RE: DRILL
You mention that Lawyer Ron was a good 9F horse and his sire got 9F horses. You also mention that Storm Cat speed stretches out to 9F. That's all well and good, but the last time I checked, the Kentucky Derby was held at 10 furlongs.
Drill has a pedigree that, at best, could be considered borderline for 10F. Running style, conformation and mental fortitude all play a part in how far a horse is willing to run. Some horses, such as Smarty Jones, Lookin At Lucky, Shackleford and Ruler On Ice either had borderline pedigrees or unsuitable pedigrees for classic distances, yet these aforementioned factors helped the horses win. Shackleford and Lookin At Lucky only made it 9 1/2F (Preakness). Unfortunately, the stress of competing at distances beyond their comfort range can take a huge toll on horses. I don't expect Shackelford or Ruler On Ice to run back to their three year old class level, and so far, they haven't. Granted, Shack had only one race so far this year, but from what I saw (I was up close and personal), Shack came back a very tired, sore horse who bled thru his lasix. That explains his quitting after the first half of the race.
Drill has shown by his performance that 1 1/16 miles and farther are not what he can handle at the moment. That can change with age and maybe he'll want two turns down the road as a 4 or 5 year old. However, at present, unless Baffert is totally desperate, he won't be forcing Drill to go a distance for which he's not suited any time soon.
As for Liaison, his sire Indian Charlie is still 1 for 450+ runners at 1 1/4 miles, despite having been bred to mares by A.P. Indy, Alydar, Arch (Uncle Mo, we saw how that turned out), Awesome Again, Black Tie Affair, Broad Brush, Caerleon, Colonial Affair, Conquestidor Cielo, Danzig, Deputy Minster, Dynaformer, Halo, His Majesty, Key To The Mint, Kingmambo, Kris S., Lemon Drop Kid, Nureyev, Pleasant Colony, Quiet American, Saint Ballado, Seattle Slew, Secretariat, Smart Strike, St. Jovite, Strawberry Road, Thunder Gulch, Turkoman, Unbridled, Unbridled's Song, Victory Gallop, Wild Again and (deep breath) Woodman.
Indian Charlie's 1 winner at 1/14 miles was by Afleet. Indian Princess beat weak fields in average/slow final times. Indian Charlie sired four other runners out of Afleet mares, none won at 9F, let alone 10.
Laura
*****************
Everyone, Don't forget CHAT tonight in the IMT CHAT ROOM 9:00 PM EST. http://www.ironmaidensthoroughbreds.com/
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Bernard Downes,
Of the 30 Triple Crown races in the decade of the 1970’s the Bold Ruler sire line produced 14 winners of Triple Crown races – including the Triple Crown winners Seattle Slew and Secretariat – for 47%.
Kentucky Derby – Spectacular Bid (1979), Seattle Slew (1977), Bold Forbes (1976), Foolish Pleasure (1975), Cannonade (1974), Secretariat (1973) and Dust Commander (1970).
Preakness - Spectacular Bid (1979), Seattle Slew (1977), Master Derby (1975) and Secretariat (1973).
Belmont - Seattle Slew (1977), Bold Forbes (1976) and Secretariat (1973).
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HG $100 WIN #4 Legendary King. A little bit of back class, they liked him as a 3 yo, should get some pace to close into this time. By Brahms out of Dance Skirt with Popov V in the irons. Sounds like a weird wild time.
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HG271
#3 Crimson Knight goes back to allen for this one has ridden him very good in past against some pretty good company and ran well. that last race was a tightner after four months on shelf returned and showed speed early on then dropped out of the race and stopped came back and worked a fast 4 furlongs for bennett and cuts back today to a mile his favorite distance.
#7 Beckham Bend speed didnt hold for him in last against better than these Little Mike anyone that race sets him up for this one as he worked a bullet 2-10 for this race. this guy has speed to burn but does not need the lead to win as he can staulk and pounce on the front runner as he has done many times in the past. loves this distance being 11 for 15 in the exacta I think that spells the one to beat in this race today.
#9 Blazen this hard hitting gelding on first look looks to be a hanger when push comes to shove down the lane is five for six in the money at this track and and has won the majority of his money at this distance of a mile. he cant be overlooked here as he may fire with spieth up today.
the bet:
$50 to win #3 = $50
$25 exacta key #3/79= $50
total $100 thanks dan
good luck all MH01
total $100 thanks dan
good luck to all MH01
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Correction to HG
Not 100 WP on 10, I mean $50 WP on 10. Sorry for the mistake
Jason
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Bernard Downes,
Northern Dancer and Mr. Prospector both have influenced the Thoroughbred breed. However, Northern Dancer has had a worldwide influence while Mr. Prospector has dominated the American Classics. Of the 66 Triple Crown races run since 1990, descendants of the Mr. Prospector sire line have won 35 of those races for 53%.
Kentucky Derby - Mine That Bird (2009), Street Sense (2007), Smarty Jones (2004), Funny Cide (2003), War Emblem (2002), Fusaichi Pegasus (2000), Real Quiet (1998), Grindstone (1996), Thunder Gulch (1995) and Unbridled (1990).
Preakness – Lookin At Lucky (2010), Curlin (2007), Afleet Alex (2005), Smarty Jones (2004), Funny Cide (2003), War Emblem (2002), Point Given (2001), Red Bullet (2000), Real Quiet (1998), Timber Country (1995) and Hansel (1991).
Belmont – Ruler On Ice (2011), Drosselmeyer (2010), Summer Bird (2009), Jazil (2006), Afleet Alex (2005), Birdstone (2004), Empire Maker (2003), Point Given (2001), Commendable (2000), Lemon Drop Kid (1999), Victory Gallop (1998), Editor’s Note (1996), Thunder Gulch (1995) and Hansel (1991).
The line of Fappiano as the damsire line produced Shackleford (2011 Preakness) and Bernardini (2006 Preakness).
The sire line of Northern Dancer has produced a total of 17 winners that have won Triple Crown races for 28%.
Kentucky Derby – Big Brown (2008), Charismatic (1999), Sea Hero (1993) and Ferdinand (1986).
Preakness – Rachel Alexandra (2009), Big Brown (2008), Charismatic (1999), Louis Quatorze (1996), Tabasco Cat (1994), Pine Bluff (1992), Summer Squall (1990) and Gate Dancer (1984).
Belmont – Touch Gold (1997), Tabasco Cat (1994), Go And Go (1990), Bet Twice (1987) and Danzig Connection (1986).
The sire line of Seattle Slew has produced a total of 5 winners that have won Triple Crown races for 8%.
Kentucky Derby – Swale (1984).
Preakness – Bernardini (2006).
Belmont – Rags To Riches (2007), A. P. Indy (1992) and Swale (1984).
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JAMIE NESS IS A JOKE
I'm sure many players will use the 8 horse in here strictly because of Ness. I used to have Ness train horses for me. That was back in 2008 and prior to him finding whatever magic pill he now uses. Please read Andy Beyer's column from Wed about Tampa and I will provide an example that further supports what andy is talking about. Jamie claimed a horse in 2007 for me by the name of Renee's Regent for $25,000. I ended up needing to drop the horse in for a $5k tag to finally win a race at Canterbury. Now compare that to the situation you see with Jamie every week. Instead of taking a horse for $25k and having it drop the ladder it now happens the other way.....he takes the horses for $5k and they end up winning for $25k because of his magic blood circulation milkshake. And it's not like his stock has improved, he claims horses now at the same level he did back then. Does anyone think he because that much better of a trainer in a couple years on hard work??? So long story short....I am not drinking the Ness kool-aid and I am not betting him in this race.
HG
100 WP on 10
Jason
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******ANNIE********
Good morning!
As I told SR Vegas in a previous post, the 2nd MKB draw will be held next week. It turns out this will be a pretty hectic weekend for me, so Sunday, as originally planned, will not work out.
Below are the names of Formbloggers who will be included in the draw because their original horse was not nominated to the Triple Crown or was unfortunately injured. Also, there are 5 more who expressed the desire to be included in the second round.
KNM
MOLESAP
SR VEGAS
CURT V
BYANOSE
ANNE M
ALAN
DYLBERT
GIL
RANDO
DAVID H
PASEANA
RICK'S NATURAL STAR
KELLEY BELLES
CASEYJEAUX
KEITH L
BARBARA P
STELLA
ALYDARANDEASY
JIMI
TMONTY
THE VAN GOGH
ALFREDO
YUWIPI
SALUKI TOM
JEFF
I'll leave it up to VIRGIN QUEEN to decide if she would like to replace DRILL or not. Baffert has said he will not be going to the Derby, but what Baffert says is not always what he does. Up to you VQ.
I'm a bit worried that everyone is not even here anymore, but I will draw a horse for each one and hope that they will acknowledge the receipt of their horse.
I think we are going to need a rollcall one of these days, just to see who made it across the seas to the New World and who did not.
BTW, this time of year do you know how hard it is to find 26 non-MKB horses that even have a snowball's chance in hell of going to the Derby. LOL I'll do the best I can.
Annie
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Interesting Oaklawn Allowance for nw1x as the 8th Race going 1 mile on the Main today.
This is carded for 3 and ups, and Dan Peilz sends in 3 yr old gelding Najjaar (by Jazil, out of a Irish bred mare), and he just won a MSW here at 1&1/16th in Jan.. Borel takes the ride, and he is the 3rd choice on the morning line at 4-1 facing a field of 4, 5, and 6 yr olds. Gets the 3 lb weight for age break, and comes from the rail post. His MO is coming from the clouds late in wide sweeping moves that put him in the hunt in one turf, and three MSWs at Churchill, Keeneland, and the victory here at Oaklawn, registering a 5: 1-2-1 record to date, with his last four all itm at 1&1/16th. His late pace Bris fig is pretty enticing, and leads this group.
Keith L.
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HG271
7 Beckham Bend and 9 Blazen look best to me. Finished 2-3 in a simlar spot back in December.
1 Charging Home, 3 Crimson Knight and 6 Vanquisher look to fight it out for the minor placings
20 Tri 9-7-1
20 Tri 9-7-3
20 Tri 9-7-6
14 Tri 7-9-1
13 Tri 7-9-3
13 Tri 7-9-6
AllanW
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This is somewhat misleading... for Baffert has simply won 'the last ten (completed) races he's entered". (which doesn't count "The Factor" and others - who have, of course, already been 'entered' for races not yet completed).
Give the guy full credit!
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HG
$50 exacta box 8-3.
Reason: 3 is 2/3 at Tampa. 8 has ran well on Tampa turf.
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You Feel Lucky,
Mr Prospector??? Surely Northern Dancer was the most influential North American bloodline?
Best Regards - Bernard Downes
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hg excercise tampa 2 24 2012
3/all /10 10/all /3
$5 TRI WHEEL EACH WAY , 5$ EX BOX 10/1 3
3 LEROIDS BREEDING TURF LOVES DISTANCE BUT SUPRISINGLY MILE LOVER NOT LONGER
10 RISING IMPROVING ALL DAY LONG
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HG271
$100 Exacta 1 - 7
#1 stalked a fairly quick pace comfortably before coming home strongly.
#7 - 1st or 2nd 11- 15 times on turf, drops in class, figues to get a good stalking trip
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HG
$4 Tribx 1,6,7,9
$2 Tri 7/1,6/1,6
Wide open race has been looking for some consistency on turf at the dist.
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HG: one way $100 exacta: 10 with 3
I understand why the 1) Charging Home is so popular with the players here. And of course in real life, you can never leave out Jamie Ness. Still, the morning line exacta is right on , despite those powerful contrary indicators. But that exacta won't win this contest. And I don't know who would complete the trifecta or superfecta. Thus the longshots in a one way exacta for this HG.
Thanks, Ed Kay
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HG271:
$5 triple part wheel 1,8 with 1,8,9 with 3,4,6,7,9 = $90
$1 triple part wheel 4 with 1,8 with 2,3,6,7,9 = $10
Yuwipi
Idle thoughts:
Using the 4 (by Brahms) as bomb insurance. Love him as a turf sire and I can see the connections are 0 for life. Burning $10 just for giggles. I'm not wild about the holes in the 7's race record, especially at his age. Although his 11 for 15 first or second on grass and the gaudy Beyers are there on the paper. Trying to beat him. Also not thrilled with the 6 being one for his last twelve at age eight. Try to get past him too. Came down on the two I'm using as the best of the rest. Confidence is not high.
Bernard Downes,
Enjoyed your football information. Has been an ambition of mine for some years now to be at Anfield for a big match and hear the Liverpool fans put up a chorus of "You'll Never Walk Alone." Maybe someday. Hoping you might know what it means to call a Liverpool backer a "scouser." I assume it's derogatory and if too off color don't trouble yourself.
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HG 271
#8... Ness and 3rd off layoff.
#10 Has turned his form around since switch to turf.
$12.. tri 8 / 10 / all = $96
$1.. tri 1,3,4,5 / 8 / 10 = $4
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It pays to wait around, they say...
If you waited around until the 7th at SA, you saw the Asmussen trained Matto Mondo get bet down to 3/5. Our friend Cory Nakatani was on board to ride this champ. It was a field of 8, but they came in heavy in the show pool to my surprise.... The horse didn't look so hot in the post parade in my eyes...maybe it was just me. This chump ran up the track and the bridge jumpers were all in to say the least...Never understand why with 7 others against this one..
Show prices:
$20.60 / $14.00 / $17.40
Better luck next time folks...I will be watching...
Whackymacky out!!!
PS. That Dubai is a tough place to play...missed that longshot with Frankie....
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Handigambling
$25 Super
7-10/7-10/1-9/1-9
Dizzy
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trakfst
HG:
$20 EX,
1 w/7,9,10
$20 EX
7,9 w/1
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Bernard Downes, Will let CVS answer about the Slews......butt....I bet Mr. Prospector has his genes all over this group. U.S.A. horse's best bloodlines in the world.
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Keith,
I have not read Finished Last At Folkstone. It is an interesting project, and having read some reviews, it sounds a good read.
I have to say that John Norbury wouldn't be unique in his sporting travels. Its one of the advantages of living in a small country, with a comprehensive rail system.
I am nowhere near visiting 61 racetracks myself, not more than 35 I suppose. You can't beat a day at the races for entertainment value, but betting has always been easier, and more profitable, from the comfort of my home.
However, when I was much younger I used to travel EVERY fortnight to watch football. I have been to all 92 professional football grounds in England, as well as games in Scotland, Wales, Ireland, Italy, France, Holland, Belgium, Germany, Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Yugoslavia, East Germany, Russia, Austria, Czechoslovakia and South Africa.
If I could remember the details through an alcoholic haze, perhaps I could write a book.
Best Regards - Bernard Downes
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Annie
When is MKB draw #2 ?
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HG
There appears to be enough speed to set up some closers. Wager: $100 Exacta 1-6
Thanks Dan!
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HG
56 W #7
$2 ex's 7/1,6,8,9 = $8
$1 Tri's 7/1,6,8,9/1,6,8,9= $12
$1 SF's7/1,6,89/1,6,8,9/1,6,8,9= $24
Belvedere
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Whackymacky,
I also bet Dubai today, including 2 the same as you, Factory Time and Secrecy (but for a lot less than $200 a horse). Not a great day.
Best Regards - Bernard Downes
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Laura and You Feel Lucky:
Three things we know about Bob Baffert;
1) He likes quick horses that can either be on the pace or attending it,
2) He wants a foundation in his horses on the Triple Crown Trail,
3) If he doesn't have a horse like that in his stable, he'll find an owner that will buy one!
(ala War Emblem)
Secret Circle: now he is certainly quick...and has now gone in two routes well enough, and is piling up the graded earnings. But Baffert is suspect of his distance credentials at this point, as he entered him back at 1 mile, which is a tough step forward. He will undoubtedly need to show more at 8.5 and/or 9f to get a trip to Churchill, I would suspect. And well enough to garner another $100K or so in graded earnings at that.
Fed Biz looks like he could be a serious runner, but again, he wil have to do a lot more to have the foundation in him to go on the Triple Crown Trail...and get some graded earnings. He may have to ship if Liaison and/or Sky Kingdom come back into form to go on locally at Sana Anita.
His late starter Bodemeister has excellent speedt, but not the foundation, so I wouldn't count on him going to the Derby, Preakness, or Belmont,,,,maybe the Haskel (think Coil), or the Fall Classic Travers Stakes.
Sky Kingdom almost has the foundation, however after his mis-fire in the Robert Lewis, he hasn't made the work tabs since...so something might be amiss with him. Too bad because he certainly has a 10f pedigree, and had four straight 1&1/16ths races under his belt, including an Allowance and a Stake's race before the Robert Lewis. In a head to head as a Maiden, he also bettered Castaway going short.
Liaison is back to the work tabs, and he's Baffert's best hope for the Santa Anita Derby.
If he turns it around, and runs well at 9f, Baffert will send him to Churchill. Yeah, there is the indian Charlie sire thing...but the Victory Gallop-Cryptoclearance-Fappiano-Mr. Prospector on the dam's sire line compensates for that. He's got the graded earnings already, and the foundation is in.
Castaway has a foundation of sorts, if you count the long string of losing MSW 2 yr old races (sorry Chalky)and continuing into 2012...but Baffert needed to send him into a mile race as a shipper, and will have to decide if he goes back to Oaklawn with him, or doubles up into the Santa Anita Derby.
That leaves us with Drill.
Now his sire, Lawyer Ron, wasn't much in the two BC Classic runs, or the KY Derby effort, but he was a solid 9f horse, and damn near beat Curlin in their Jockey Gold Cup at 10f, losing by a neck. Lawyer Ron's sire Langfur's get also have their share of 8f to 9f victories, and Drill's dam sire Storm Cat lends good speed that carries out to 9f. So I don't see that Drill is necessarily pedigree compromised at the 9f distance.
Drill has run well and badly at 8.5f, his last two efforts in the Breeder's Cup Juvie and the Delta Jackpot soured Baffert and Pegrahm and company on pursuing the Derby Trail. But, depending on what occurs with Liaison and Sky Kingdom, he may be the best fallback option. He has the earningsand the foundation is in...and if Baffert is left with just Castaway, Secret Circle, and Drill as being his only shots at the Derby, he may just decide to plot a backup plan with Drill, and send him to the Jerome Stakes at 1 mile or the Lexington Stakes at 1&1/16th as a Derby prep...he wont need further graded earnings.
Or, maybe he and Pegrahm and company go shopping? LOL!
Keith L.
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Curtis V Slewster,
Even more apologies, my last post should have been to you, not Keith. I really am cracking up.
Bernard Downes
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Keith,
Apologies for the somewhat throwaway answer about Slewsters racing in the UK. In truth I should have said that my betting style does not involve much analysis of the horse's pedigree. I look at the Sire, glance at the Dam and thats it.
So if we are going to find some Slewsters over here I will rely on your analysis. Lets take the first big grass race in Europe as the example. The 2000 Gns for 3 yr olds is run in the Spring over a straight mile at Newmarket and the top entries are,
Camelot
Nephrite
Harbour Watch
Born To Sea
Power
Top Offer
Parish Hall
Akeed Mofeed
Bronterre
Fencing
Tales of Grimm
They are some well bred colts, but is there any Slewster blood in there?
Best Regards - Bernard Downes
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*****ANNIE******
MKB UPDATE:
Well, the four expected MKBs are entered in the FOY on Sunday. No doubt there will be an MKB winner in that one, most likely exacta, trifecta and super too. :)
BERNARD DOWNES' Algorithms
LAURA LAWDUCK'S Union Rags
NED DALY'S Discreet Dancer
KNM'S Casual Trick
Good luck all!
KNM,
Our CHARLY is also entered in an allowance/opt.cl at GP on Sunday in addition to the Stakes race at FG on Sat. I suppose this one would be easier for him. :)
Annie
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HG v 3.0
Waitin' on Sumthin is W/P in his last two, both on turf and both at Tampa. Late starting 5yo shows a general pattern of improvement - longer races and better Beyers. Not outclassed by the competition.
HG WAGER
$33 W/P/S #10
$1 to the Permanently Disabled Jockeys Fund
Good luck to all
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#7 Up and down
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HG271
#6, Fits well here, ready to win
#5, could wake up here and run a big race
#8, J. N ess
So in the hg lets go $50 ex 6 over 5,8.
You Feel Lucky
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**********ANNIE***********
SR Vegas,
I see that you and BYANOSE are planning to gang up on the field in the race at AQU on Sat. Running as a 4-5 entry! Doesn't give the others much of a chance, does it. :)
Too bad they are both for sale for 50K. :( But, they can't all be major stakes winners. I know you will miss him if FESTIVE gets claimed, but that is the claiming game. You could buy yourself lots of bling with 50K. :)
Annie
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HG 271:
$100 exacta 1 / 6
#1has good tactical speed and finished well last time.
#6 is consistent and should be closing into a decent pace.
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HG 271
$100 Exacta 1/8
#1 has the inside post on a mile race with a quality horse of this sort should make for a good win play. The horse shows some closing speed and should be able to use it sooner in this race.
#8 just looks like a quality play for second, as it has been doing sprints and should be able to have this speed carry over in a route.
Tim H.
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*******ANNIE******
OK, I give up. AOL refuses to let me have my name. I have put my chosen name as Screen name, Display name, Signature, Greeting name and it still won't come up here. Blah!
KNM,
Two of our older boys are running at FG on Saturday!
CHARLY runs in the GR3 Fair Grounds Handicap at 1-1/8 miles on Turf. He carries a feathery 113 lbs. and P. Lopez. He's 12-1.
SKY runs in the GR3 Mineshaft Handicap at 1-1/16 miles on dirt. He carries 118 lbs and Shane Sellers. He's 5-1.
There is a horse in Sky's race named NATES MINESHAFT. Don't know if he will have an advantage being named for Mineshaft and all. :) However, he's 20-1, so probably don't have to worry about him.
Of course, the big race is the GR2 Risen Star.
CHAAZZ' El Padrino 2-1 Favorite
PATRICK S' Optimizer 6-1
Good luck guys!
The Fountain of Youth runs on Sun., but even more important news was given to me by LAURA. My PRECIOUS (Forward March) is slated to make his debut in an allowance race that same day at GP. Needs a prep race before taking down the Florida Derby, etc. :).
Annie
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Everyone,
Tomorrow night is CHAT NIGHT! We'll review the Risen Star, FOY and other graded stakes. Same Bat Time And Channel - IMT@ 9:00 PM: http://www.ironmaidensthoroughbreds.com/
**************************************
Keith,
Sorry to break it to you, but Drill will be hard pressed to get 1 1/8 miles, let alone 1 1/4 miles. Baffert's late-developing Castaway has a better pedigree for the distance, but the concern there is doing too much too soon. He has a chance of becoming a Derby burn-out if they push him.
Despite all of Bafferts TC nominees, he really doesn't have a legitimate stand out. Sky Kingdom MIGHT defelop into a decent Derby horse. He has a fantastic distance pedigree, but might wind up as a grass runner when he grows up and figures things out. Maybe someday the recent maiden to stakes to derby winner scenerio will happen with the right horse, but recent history (200 +) shows that the majority of these horsesb burn out and have a host of problems after the Triple Crown. Curlin is one of the few exceptions
Laura
I MISS CAPCHA!
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HG
#10 Waitin' On Sumthin has finally found surface and company he likes
#8 My Charming Clyde. Jamie Ness/Midwest T'breds. 3rd off layoff. Dirt to turf
#7 Beckham Bend. 3rd off layoff. Probably bounced in last.
$50 Tri
10/7,8/7,8
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Dubai Carnival Spot Plays for Thursday....
Race #1 #3 Sarrsar
Race #2 #5 Jardim
Race #3 #5 Factory Time
Race #4 #6 Pimpernal
Race #5 Inxile
Race #6 #10 Secrecy
Place these to Win / Place. $200 each.
Let's get this day off with some winners!!! Need a comeback folks. Some money earners here with some class plays...
Good Luck to all today and everyday...
Whackymacky Out!!!
PS: No Baffert to worry about at Dubai.....
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Bernard Downes:
Have you run across the book "Finished Last at Folkeston: One Man's Ambition to Visit All 60 UK Racecourses"? Published by Troubedor Press Ltd. in Nov, 2011 and by new author John Norbury, this is advertised as one man's travel diary of his journey to visit all 61 active racecourses in the United Kingdom as a racing fan/horse owner.,,and he also recounts following his own horse as it is entered in several races.
From the review that i read, it seems it would be an interesting read...there is the humanity element of the author's beginning this undertaking in the company of his father, who takes ill and dies after the 12th race course visited, which seems to serve as a crossroad for the undertaking, and for a tournaround in the fortunes of the author's horse.
Because he doesn't drive, this isn't a travel guide to the race courses, although for the tourist visiting England it does apparently impart some knowledge of the train routes to the many racing destinations, and a pub or two between the train stations and the race courses, where a pint (or two) and chatting with fellow "punters" garners some hot tips for the day/
I've only read the review...apparently its in paperback, maybe available thru Amazon over here. If you know about it, perhaps you could share your impressions with us here...is it a usefullread for us States Side racing fans?
Keith L.
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HG 271
Don't likes:
Yankee Connection - Yankee Gentleman is not a major move turf sire IMO.
Legendary King - never heard of jockeyPopov. SOunds more like fine Russian Vodka. 0-16 in 2011-12.
Terrifico - 0-13 turf; no for win honors
Others:
#1 Charging Home - beat Motion trainee Under Control last out. Should be in top 4.
#3 Crimson Knigh - almost stunned world in Tampa Derby at 86-1. Talk about a reverse key race. Like sire, horse not sure. Last off layoff was atrocious. Good 4F work. Under if at all.
#6 Vanquisher - drops in for tag, knows how to win 10-44. 23-44 ITM. In my top 3.
#7 Beckham Road - runs in tough spots. This is not tough spot. Maybe class but at 7 years old and 16 starts you would be way under water owning Beckham. Claiming spot is realistic. At 3-1 seems like underlay on tote value.
#8 Ness - yes, I just list the trainer rather than the horse. Take the trainers name off the horse and you have 8-1 shot, with Ness listed it is 3-1 or lower. 5F on grass, 1M &40 on dirt, now turf mile. Seems like logical progression. Next up cut back on dirt in the 2F Rocket Man Stakes at CRC. I try to beat this guy Ness so often that my head hurts. He is 46% overall at Tampa, but ONLY 29% on turf. So I will try to beat him on grass spots only.
#9 Blazen - seems like decent value if ML holds. More of an under type but maybe a little more pace in this one. Like claiming spot. I could do worse at 7-1.
#10 Wait'n on Sunshine - that name fits perfectly for a guy living in Indiana in the winter. 3 months of solid clouds it seems. Will try to gas them from outer post. Ascending BSF and turf affinity noted. Thinking someone comes and gets him plus he is facing seasoned multiple winners now.
DAVIDM 9999
$60W #9; $40P on #9
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is it my imagination or does Cool Blue Red Hot scratch out of every race...really looked forward to playing him in the Mineshaft Sat...now he's out...no reason given..
On a non-related topic, (I'm sure this has been discussed)...but how do you change from"Anonymous" to a name when you post?
Brutus4633
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HG271
...and I'm spoiled for choice.
1 CHARGING HOME won a 25k open claimer at Arlington last summer earning a field-best 94 figure for it & looks to be a logical fit here. He's won all 3 claiming races shown here & comes off a score over the surface for a trainer doing well 2 off of a layoff. He's posted good times has a nice, bettable M/L price at 5-1.
3 CRIMSON KNIGHT has had his form darkened a bit by a brief foray into dirt sprints and synth miles & his return to turf this year didn't help either, but he strung together some consistent performances last summer under conditions more akin to today's & at various tracks to boot. Assuming last out was an aberration 10-1 is quite enticing.
7 BECKHAM BEND is the class horse in a turf race coming out of the Sunshine Millions Turf & it's refreshing to look at a turf horse and see all T's in the form. He has been filling out exactas like it's his job (which, I guess, it is) at this level and will take some serious beating here. Logical favorite & legitimate contender.
8 is trained by JAMIE NESS, er, is MY CHARMING CLYDE. Not a horse I would necessarily want to bet under different circumstances, but Ness' numbers are absurd. However, this horse shares a field-best BSF (albeit in a 5f sprint), & did I mention who his trainer is and how well he's doing?
The presence of the 8 annoys me in here, because I don't like an angle so trainer-dependent (or, more accurately, horse-independent) & I'd like to wheel the 1 over the 3 & 7, but Ness is an absolute must-use right now. Regardless, I like the 1 most here & with the presence of the 8 the 3 least, albeit a thin line. I'm not going to force a silly trifecta out of these, so I'll chalk out a bit and cut ties with the 3 (& hope it don't bite me, but it ain't real money anyhow)...
$50 - EX. WHEEL - 1 / 7, 8
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HG 271
$100Tri 6/8/1
The old timer #6 is at the right level
#8 I like the 2 race return. now should be ready
#1 Jockey Trainer combo very good
Ron B
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Turnback,
The Google email account that I opened to use on the Blog has received three Spam messages.
One titled Blog Advertising.
One titled Feed Advertising. (Feed is the infamous orange box)
One titled Cash Creation.
Coincidence? Not likely.
In addition, when I checked my account settings, one of the rights that DRF had acquired was the right to access my non-existent contact list. Even though I don't intend to ever have a contact list in this account, that right no longer exists.
Please everyone; protect your information. Especially if you have financial information on your computer.
Yogi
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Ray Manely . Calvin Carte ..and those in KY
I read this recently at TDN and DRF has an article on it's home page.
How does this affect racing, overall is this good or bad ?
I see where they took out a provision to have some casinos located at race tracks.
Thoughts?
State Senate Committee Approves Casino Bill Amendment
Posted: 3:51 PM ET
"The Kentucky State Senate's Committee on State and Local Government Wednesday approved a bill that would place before voters a constitutional amendment to allow casino gaming in the state. The bill, which was approved on a vote of 7-4, will now head to the full Senate for consideration. Before voting, the committee listened to two hours of testimony on both sides of the issue, with Governor Steve Beshear speaking on behalf of the measure and representatives from The Family Foundation among those speaking against the bill. During the hearing, the bill was amended to remove a provision that five of the seven casinos would be required to be located at racetracks. Voting for the bill were: Senators Walter Blevins, Jimmy Higdon, Gerald Neal, R J Palmer, Johnny Ray Turner, John Schickel, and senate chairman Damon Thayer. Voting against the bill were: Senators Tom Jensen, Alice Forgy Kerr, Dan Seum and Robert Stivers."
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KeithL
u can't b serious about Drill running in the Derby
c TBTA's post
unless a course he has a thing about looking at other horse's arses
cuz thats all he'll b seeing
Drill going a mile and a quarter=Uncle Mo Redux
there's Uncle Mo he's running kind of slow at the junction,Petticoaaaaat Junction, choo choo
do yourself a favor and stick 2 playing the races at Parx&Laurel
lmao
VQ
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"As far as I am aware we might be a little short of slewsters. Best Regards -
Bernard Downes"
That's Classic funny........
Dig deep Bernard...You'll never know 'til you look.....Or, you can always ask me...Send me the entry's when they're up, & I'll give you a thorough{sp} report........Laura mentioned back in day, the Slew is like 32 % on grass in Europe w/his progeny.......That certainly aint Chopped Liver, my man........
Curt V.
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HG BRAVE NEW DRF BLOG WORLD
#3 Crimson Knight is 2nd-off layoff and returns to Allen. Sharp Valentine's Day workout. WIN
#8 My Charming Clyde stretches out after two good races off a 6+month layoff. PLACE
MY WAGER:
Straight exacta of ny two selections.
$100EX #3/8
Alan(Chalky's ex)
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HG
$10 tri 10/7/all
$20 exacta 10/7
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TBTA:
Here is a thought on the privacy issue of protecting your e-mail contacts.
I've discovered when checking my Yahoo account that because I've never designated a saved contact, i have zero contacts listed!
I don't know how deeply the DRF IT boys can mine an e-mail account, but because i only reply to group mail and don't generate it regularly, I apparently don't have a contact list to be made available to them. I don't believe they can access your Inbox, Send files, or any other stored e-mail addresses other than a designated saved Contacts listing.
Perhaps this is true for other e-mail providers? I used to have earthling.net for e-mail as a 2nd account (actually still do) but have never designated saved contact e-mail addresses there either.
Now as to your questioning my intentions as to Drill (as VQ did in an earlier post), should I just get an advil (or Aspirin tablet) and hold it between my knees? LOL!
(I do realize it seems that he has become my "crush horse" of late...but I'm really just trying to figure out Baffert's next moves in case i want to purchase a Futures ticket on one or two of his charges!) in Pool 2).
Keith L.
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VQ: (and Curt V. & TBTA):
Nice article on Bloodhorse.com website on Drill:
Focus is on Meg Levy oi Bluewater Sales first impressions of Drill as a yearling, and also her recollections of Bob Bafferts hooking early at the yearling sales on Drill's presence and confirmtion, and his observations when he purchased for Pegrahm and company the Lawyer Ron colt for $300K.
Keith L.
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$0.50 Super 1/3-8-9/ALL/ALL,
$3.50 Tri 1/3-8-9/3-8-9.
$2 Win 10
1 is 5-15 lifetime, win on this course, wins at the distance, second of the layoff where the trainer hits at 33%. Should improve. Value play would be the 10
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Can you post the PP's for Jimanator made top beyers this past week and I believe was a recent claim? Also there were three horses that made the list that were claimed out of there races any way you could post them as well, always interesting to see the progression from claimer to faster horses running out there, Thanks!
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Curtis,
Thanks for the info about Black Caviar.
I must not have understood the earlier post because I always expected her to come to Royal Ascot in June (I believe the owners are into that royalty / dressing up thing). However, you have amazed me by the news she is not going to Dubai for the Golden Shaheen - very valuable race and a shorter trip from Australia.
So you think she might run at Goodwood before Ascot? Goodwood is a beautiful racecourse, but the track itself is very undulating. It could be quite a challenge to adjust to those undulations, some horses don't, but the UK sprinters are not particularly inspiring.
As far as I am aware we might be a little short of slewsters.
Best Regards - Bernard Downes
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Not Handigambling related!
For what it is worth to those who are concerned about DRF and your personal information......hasn't it been about a week now since we were ambushed with the change? Well, I opened a new AOL account just in case DRF had some nefarious ideas about selling my info to advertisers, etc.....
Well, the new account has not received even ONE email yet. So, maybe giving up the personal information really isn't that bad.
Keith L.,
All your points are well put about Drill and indeed the owners do have all those options. But, if I owned a hot headed horse that was not a good shipper and who was all out to win at 7 furlongs, I would take a couple of advils and try to cure myself of Derby fever.
VQ,
Kinky? Drill????????? Keith L???????????????????????????
TBTA (currently email-less)
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MKB workouts :
----------
2/21/12
Oaklawn Park - Dirt/fast
Optimizer - 3F 0:36.20 Breezing
Hollywood Park - All Weather/fast
Rousing Sermon - 5F 1:01.80 Handily - Anderson
Gulfstream Park - dirt/fast
Ever So Lucky - 5F 1:00.65 Handily - Dale
------------
2/22/12
Fair Grounds - dirt/fast
Animal Spirits - 3F 0:38.00 Breezing - Dylbert
Santa Anita - Dirt/fast
Brother Francis - 1:00.60 Handily - TurnBackTheAlarm
Fed Biz - 6F 1:16.00 Handily - David W
Liaison - 1 Mile - 1:43.00 Handily - Laura / IMS
------------------
MKB Entries:
Festive Spirit - SR Vegas
Da Vinci - Byanose
1M 70 yds 50K opt clm at Aqueduct Saturday...Both MKB in for a claim, oh no !
http://www.drf.com/race-entries/AQU/USA/2012-02-25/D/2
Optimizer - Partick S
El Padrino - CHAAZZ
in the 1 1/16M 300K Risen Star GR II at Fair Grounds on Saturday
http://www.drf.com/race-entries/FG/USA/2012-02-25/D/11
Good Luck !
SR Vegas
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HG271@Tampa,
I usually wait til later...Butts:This bet isn't gonna be around long....So, whatever the track condition it is on the turf..Here it is..
#7>Beckham Road....I have no idea what he's doing in here. His class is overwhelming this bunch, jimo.......
#1>Charging Home..This up & coming sole Slewster seems in shape & has the rail & A-one trainer & Jockey.....There's more, butts:I aint revealing my secret info....I'll never tell..Oh Maybe, after the race.........LoL.......Let's just say I had a discussion of sorts........You know.."Saw a man about a horse.....">Kinda thing..........
$100.00 Straight Exacta>>#7 over/ #1..=$100.00
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Keith L.
Instead of making you go back in the reply section, I'll just put it here..That Anonymous you replied, "Who are you ?}; who didn't post her name..That's right, I said her..LoL..
Who else spells it MONIKOR ? & goes back & forth between her name & Anonymous ? >>>>>>>>>>>>>>Only kiddin' girl.......Hey, as far as I know, maybe she's trying to throw us for a loop............
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HG271
$4 tri box: 1-6-7-8 = $96
$4 exacta: 1/6 = $4
Proctor's #1 horse sitting on a big one second start off layoff
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HG #271
When I selected this race, I felt it would be a very wide open affair, with #7 Beckham Bend the horse to beat. I still like Beckham Bend, but since he seems to be the consensus horse, I'm going an entirely different way.
#3 Crimson Knight looked like he was going to be a special horse for Bennett after his 2nd place finish in last year's Tampa Bay Derby. I don't know what went wrong in his last race, but I'm willing to toss it out and hope for the best.
The play $5 trifecta key
#3 Crimson Knight/ on top of #1 Charging Home, # 6 Vanquisher, #7 Beckham Bend, #8 My Charming Clyde, and #9 Blazen for total of 100.
HG 271 Randy
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Hg 271
First time starter with new format. A short and sweet bet. #8 My Charming Clyde has a Trainer who is hitting at an insane 47% at this meet. Its like taking the Red over Black in Roulette. Can"t buck those odds.
Hg wager $100 win #8. good luck all.
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Bernard D.,
Black Caviar ?? I posted last month to you about her coming to England, & you asked me where I read it. I said I wasn't sure, butts: I did read it. Well, it's here now @the DRF.
1}Dubai is OUT.....
2}She's coming to England in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes @Royal Ascot..June 23rd.
3}Maybe even a prep for above @the Goodwood Meeting in April, 2012.......
Okay..my man..Hope you can make it there live, & give us Bird's Eye report............
Curt V.>>Make sure England has some Slewsters..This way you can give her a fight for her money.....Euro dollars or American $$$$$...It's all Cash........
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Curt V.: (VQ and TBTA):
I am not a proponent of sending Drill into the KY Derby, even if he has $290K in graded earnings to his credit already...Baffert said BEFORE the comeback to form victory in the San Vicente that he intended to keep him to one turn. However, I'm wondring who Bafferts top three horses are now, especially after the disappointments of Liaison and Sky Kingdom in the Robert Lewis.
Recall that after The Factor blew away the San Vicente field off his Maiden Win, folks said that speed demon couldn't go long. Well, he went long in the Rebel, and only when he couldn't handle the hold tactics in the Arkansas Derby, and fought the jock early did Baffert decide against continuing on with him to the Derby gates.
Will Baffert and the owners reverse course now? Well, he surely has a couple that he can send to Arkansas for their Derby...he also has shipped to Sunland Park before for their 9f Derby. I'd be more suspecting that if he wanted to test Drill again at a distance of ground, he might ship to Belmont for the Jerome at 1 mile, or he may fall back to the Drill's former success on synthetics and ship to a race like the Lexington at 8.5f at Keeneland.
I agree that if he goes to Churchill, it's most likely to be for the 1 mile Derby Trial. However, Baffert is also not above sending a horse out as a rabbit...and if it so proves that Liaison or Sky Kingdom reassert themselves in the San Phillipe and/or Santa Anita Derby, he'll send his best pace runner for that role, I believe
So don't give up hope VQ that you could be raising a Mint Julip on May 5th when seeing your MKB in going in the Derby starting gate.
ps: Curt V.: for some reason I was trying to give Secret Circle graded earnings for his Breeder's Cup Juvenile Sprint win...you are correct sir, both Secret Circle and Castaway will have to do more. But Liaison and Drill are holding the minimum needed to get in the gate now if they continue to show any promise.
Keith L.
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Fonner Park is in Grand Island, NE. About 100 miles west of Lincoln.
I went to school with Clark Washburn (a trainer) and several of his brothers.
The older brother Warren wrote a book (The Wann Gambler) about growing
up in a small town. Not as dramatic as 'Luck' but an interesting read and
many of you will think he was writing about you and your family.
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While all eyes this weekend will be turned to Gulfstream for the Fountain of Youth, and Fair Grounds for the Risen Star, don't overlook Saturday's prep race at Sunland Park, the Borderland Derby(ungraded stakes $150K) at 8.5f, and the local route to the rich Sunland Park Derby (graded $800K). While we can expect trainers like Asmussen and Baffert will be looking to showcase one (or two) of their 3 yos in the graded Derby, Saturday's favorite for the prep race at 2-1 ML is ISN'T HE CLEVER, a Smarty Jones gelding out of a non-descript Deputy Minister mare.
This guy is nothing if not quick...he won his Maiden at Zia Park by nearly 10 lengths at 5&1/2, came right back there to take on winners in a N1X Allowance at the same distance (won by 3&1/2). Dominguiz then took him to Remingon Park where he lit them up early in a small $100K Stakes at 7f, finishing 2nd, then came into Sunland Park for the Riley Allison $100K stakes at 6&1/2f, which he won in fine fashion. Trainer Henry Dominguiz (20% guy) thought he had a shot, so he entered him in the Robert Lewis at Santa Anita, where his gelding set the pace for 6f, dueling with eventual winner I Want Another thru the final turn and in the early stretch, then weakend to 5th (4th after the DQ of Groovin' Solo), getting passed by Empire Way and Rousing Sermon before the wire.
Is this a picture of an under the radar Derby horse? Last year Smarty Jones from his third crop gave us Concealed Identity and Rogue Romance, winners at 8.5 (although Concealed Identity came back in Nov to win the Find Handicap at Laurel at 9f on the turf. Overseas, Smarty Jones progeny have won listed Maiden Stakes and Listed Stakes from 10f (Derby distance) to 11&1/2f (Preakness distance), two distances that he did win at himself. Scratch his sire's pedigree a bit (Elusive Quality), and we find both Mr. Prospector and Boldnesian-Bold Ruler.
Albeit he has done his best running at distances under 1 mile, his Robert Lewis wasn't a bad effort at all..,..and Saturday will tell us if this one looks like he might be able to challenge the shippers for all the marbles in the Grade 3 9f Sunland Park Derby and become another of those upstart Southwest runners getting to the Derby starting gate from relative obsecurity.
Keith L.
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HG271
1$ trifecta box
4-5-6-8-9 = $60
1$ trifecta box
5-6-8-9 = $24
2$ trifecta box
6-8-9 = 12
$2 exacta box 8-9 = $4
Seems like such a wide open affair with any number of possible winners.
Another dart board HG for me.
Capt. Ron
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Gee,
This new blog format is really great! I especially like the part where I get to
share all my email contact information with DRF. The price of admission I guess.
I'm sure that DRF would never use this information in the wrong way.
I do like the way the blog is organized, though. My only complaint is how they
chose to handle the credentialing. Losing the captchas is a definite plus, too.
In fairness to our leader, I know for a fact that he was not consulted on this and
that he does what we all do ... what our boss tells us to do.
Capt. Ron
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HG-271--Looks like a bunch of horses want the lead in this one so I'll take one that can sit right behind them in 8-My Charming Clyde w/ 2 frontrunners.
$60 Exacta 8/10
$20 Exacta Box 8/4
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Can I offer my sincere thanks for the kind thoughts expressed in response to my failed love story.
Someone mentioned this blog as a family. I think that is most apt. In the last few months I certainly feel I have been made very welcome into something rather special.
Just to lighten the mood a fraction I need to make it clear that I have not spent the last 40 years moping about what might have been. It was a very important aspect of that part of my life, but that is what it was, part not the whole of my life.
Thanks again and good luck with your betting.
Best Regards - Bernard Downes
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HG271 If he wasn't too discouraged racing over his head in last, I think Beckham Bend runs away and hides from these. Crimson Knight needed the tightener, returns to his regular rider and offers some value in the exacta. I love the Leroidesanimauxs on the turf.
$100 exacta 7-3
Ponzie
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#8.....3rd start off the layoff.....trainer batting about .500
$50.00 Exactas.....8-(5-6)
GL
Ronald H
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Dang!
Already so many entries for HG , and some of them, there is NO way to track 'em.
And this is day 1/2 !!
HG Participants - Don't forget to put your NAME or MONIKOR at the end of the HG Play/and or Analysis.... as Dan requested.
This is the first time we are doing this in the new format 3.0 so take care, and check your posts and adding a short explanation is asked for.
You snooze , you can lose !!.
End your HG comments with your name/ Formblog name at the end of your post, as we have seen that the 'upfront' monikors do NOT always follow the software rules between all the 'options' that DRF have given us to use....Bummer. Anonymous will not win this.. And if you have to 'double' type your name in the post, then so be it! No harm ,no foul.
Okay, done with the HG tip of the night.
Keith L said :
..."72 straight hours of posting on subjects of fancy, besides the HG analysis" ...
Since there is no longer any TIME STAMPS on the posts that are here, and no way to know if we are posting EST or PST am/pm or what '3 hours or 30 hours' ago is in the scheme of things, it could mean nothing, complete chaos.
(one will have to go to the RSS page to decipher all the posts ) So IT IS important to get your name in there.
I'll guess that since it is (2/21 approx 11:00 pm PST now, and HG271 race time is 2/24 approx 4:07 pm EST ( would be 7:07 pm PST) this weeks HG 271 is 68 hours to post time :)
So , we have time to get this right, eh?... That's the game plan :)
Good Luck !
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Dan, you are one hard-working dude. Thanks for the column.
Don Reed
02/22/12
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#10 Looks good since switch to Turf. #s 8,9 ,6&1 have the speed to compete.
Wager
$10 Trifecta 10/8-9-6/8-9-6-1 = $90. $10 Win on 10.
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Van Savant
Nice article on Janet Evans in the NY Times online today.I think the whole family might enjoy it.
Bernard Downes
Experiences like the one you related are the beauty of life, the feelings inside the joy. Thank you for sharing. Don't remember you in the HG too much, but you really should check out # 7 Beckham Bend this week, and not for the obvious reason. It's not too often you get to see a 126 speed rating reflecting his breaking the track record by more than 5 seconds, (albeit at the seldom run distance of 1 7/16 mile over here).
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Did I see a past performance in a HG contest from Fonner Park. How many people had no idea what track Fon was or where it is? I'm sure Randy picked this race because of the Fonner horse.
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HG
$50 trifecta's 6-3-7 ; 6-7-3
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wager:
$100 to win number 1
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HG-271- $50 trifecta 10/ 1-7-1-7 good luck to all
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Bernard Downes
I liked your walk down memory lane. A lot of us have 2nd guessed ourselves many
times about our pasts. I for one, believe we are where we are suppose to be and
with the ones we were meant to be with.
I haven't always gotten what I wanted, buttZ.....I've always received what I needed....
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HG-271 $50 TRIFECTA -10/1-7- 1-7 good luck to all
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Well, there it goes again SR Vegas - Anonymous - SR Vegas...what's a girl to do ? LOL!
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i like a cold exacta today. My Charming Clude, stretching out on grass will put this runner in the winners circle today. Vanquster, classy gelding who is better than the rest ,will complete a nice exacta.
HG
100 ex 8/6
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Dan, if you think the following post on an HG scoring system has merit, you can delete this first paragraph and post my comments to see what others may have to say about it. If you don’t think this is a good idea (and I will not be offended if you don’t) just ignore all of this and you don’t need to post anything. Thanks--Mike
Dan--HG is a very popular segment of formblog and it gets many people involved and I hope it continues for a long time. Determining the weekly winner, however, appears to be very time consuming for the scorekeeper who has to go through all of the posts to find who won the most money. I have a suggestion on determining the winner (of future HGs) that, I believe, would make it a very simple process. Make the contest self-scoring. Here is how it would work:
First, state in the rules, that to be eligible to win the prize the contestant must post to the blog, by a deadline, the following information: The bet and amount won and the approximate time the bet was submitted.
After the deadlne (for example, 6 p.m. Eastern on the Monday following the contest), the scorekeeper would then only need to find the winning post, verify the results, and scan to make sure the contestant had no revisions after the reported winning bet was posted.
I know there are some drawbacks with this system. For instance, there will probably be times when a contestant would have won but did not report it or, did not report it by the deadline. There could also be a situation where a contestant reports incorrect winnings and the true winner did not report their winnings because they thought their winnings were not enough. These situations, and maybe others, would be unfortunate but, I think to win a contest like this, the contestant should have to do more than just post a bet. Comments anyone?
Bear
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Wynns Futures on Monday showed Secret Circle at 22 to 1, and Castaway at 33 to 1. of course ,the former is in the Derby starting gate based on graded earnings if Baffert wants to put him there. Castaway has to do more in earnings to be safe to consider in the gate,
Surprisingly, American Act, who ran a very good 2nd in the San Vicente didn't get a good number, over 150-1+ I believe.
Respecting Bafferts comments (and TBTAs) Futures bettors didn't give Drill any relief for his back in form victory....he's pretty far up there in nose bleed territory (no pun intended), even given his respectable total of graded earnings!
Keith L.
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When tyring to post this earlier I got a 'red' comment ...'an error has occurred , please try again later 500001' .. So I apologize if this is a duplicate.
___________________________________________________
HG271
Thanks for the selection Randy !
#2 Yankee Connection ...comming off a 10 month layoff, 1st time turf, and new trainer. Works ok, but too many unknowns. ML 7-2 seems low.
#3 Crimson Knight ...not sure what happened in his last race, but 5-2-1-1 at Tampa. Horse for course? Bullet in last work. ML 10-1
#6 Vanquisher..8yo Gelding is like the Energizer Bunny...keeps going, and going and... Must like his job, as he's throwing workout bullets every month ML 7-2
#7 Beckham Bend - is back where he should be with his buddies and not a 150K stakes race. ML 3-1
#9 Blazen - PGH could improve for a piece. ML 5-1
#10 Wait'n on Sumthin ..Turns around in 10 days, and looks to be 'racing' into shape .. no published works ML 8-1...hmmmm?
I will hope for no scratches, as I will be pretty busy the next couple days. I hope to get a longer shot upfront in my wager.
Good Luck !
Wager:
$5 TRI 3- 7- 10 / 3-7- 10 / 3-7-10-9-6 = $90
$5 EX Box 3-10 = $10
SR Vegas
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TBTA
Drill is my mkb horse
and yes Baffert needs 2 keep him in 1 turn races
no more than 7f
KeithL has nothing 2 do with the horse
as a matter of fact security has been alerted 2 look out 4 him and 2 keep him away from Drill.
we don't want anything Kinky going on
at least not until we retire him
VQ
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Well, here is the acid test on whether or not the HG is going to be doable...or at least scorable.
Seems it has a good chance to stay on Turf, although the weather forecast calls for 30% chance of showers Wed and Wed Eve, clear to partly cloudy on Thursdat, and again 40% chance of showers on Friday.
Still, I'll await scratches abd changes Fri morning before posting myself.
72 straight hours of posting on subjects of fancy, besides the HG analysis should produce a fair test of the possibility of handling HG under this format I would guess.
Good luck, folks.
Keith L.
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HG271
#10 Wait'n On Sumthin - speed
#8 My Charming Clyde - 2 nice wins on the Tampa Turf, one short and one long
#7 Beckham Bend - class
#1 Charging Home - nice win at TB in last
$10 tri 8,10 with 7,8,10 with 1,7,8,10. ($80)
$10 ex box 8,10 ($20)
Good luck to all !
Dick W
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Dan
I would like to help with the HG scoring. Hopefully we can keep all the posts to this thread :) I don't know if 10c still manages the 'spreadsheet' or if we will just be looking for the winning wagers to sort through. But I will have some time this weekend to 'read' through and be happy to help.
I've noticed that the past week or so, your last few threads have all had more that 200+ posts/replys... with the last being over 300+
Hang in there Dan !
-----------------------------------------------------
Now wth that said :
HG
I'm going to highlight a new instruction that Dan has HIGHLIGHTED in his HG instructions in the thread above...
I quote:
"PLEASE GIVE YOUR NAME OR BLOG MONIKOR AT THE END OF THE HG PLAY/AND OR ANALYSIS."
This is in addition to the normal, horses #'s and seperate the analysis from the wager format We don't want anyone to be disqualified now, do we ?
SR Vegas
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HG 271
$50 Tri key 8 with 7,9.
fijiking
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Bombs Away!
$2 Tri #3 w 6,7,8,9,10 w 1,2,6,7,8,9,10
$8 per 6,7,8,9,10 w 3
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HG271
$50.00 Exacta 6/9,10
aka Pig Bodine
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HG271
$100 exacta 1/7
Charging Home fits well with these
Becklam Bend should break on top
thx
Dan
10c or whoever
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HG 271
#7 Beckham Bend drops out of stakes, should take this
$50 Ex 7/1-5 Mike O
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Can you please post the Jimanators PP's who was a recent claim a few starts back along with the three that were claimed this past week that went on to post top 25 beyers? Thanks
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Testing
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HG 271 Picks:
$20 WPS 7
$2 EXBX 1,3,4,7,10
Good luck to all!
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Best Bets
MUTINY was claimed from seventh straight loss, and returned eight weeks later to beat a dozen rivals in best effort since last July; back to dirt and back with Rosie Napravnik after turf try on short rest. RUFFINO probably won't match 92 Beyer earned last time on this track last fall, but grizzled old pro got back in win column recently, when claimed by savvy owner-trainer; second in '09 Empire Classic over sloppy going here. HILL CROSSING has been freshened since Mar. 18 score second off the claim that earned best figure since daylight win here last summer; needs fast footing.
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