01/14/2015 5:22PM

Illman: It all added up

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CALCULATOR grabbed 10 additional Kentucky Derby points, and a long-overdue maiden win, with a visually-impressive victory over seven overmatched rivals in last Saturday's Grade 3 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita.

Second to the promising AMERICAN PHAROAH in both the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity and Grade 1 FrontRunner Stakes last year, Calculator was withdrawn from the Breeders' Cup Juvenile due to a bruised foot. Trainer Peter Miller then wanted to run Calculator in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity, but the gray colt missed that race because of illness.

Although still a maiden entering the Sham, Calculator's company lines and Beyer Speed Figures towered over the field. After all, he finished ahead of eventual Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Texas Red in the FrontRunner.

Sent away the prohibitive 3 to 5 favorite, Calculator broke from post position seven under jockey Elvis Trujillo. Bumped when forced wide entering the first turn, Calculator settled nicely into stalking position while racing in the clear. Trujillo asked for a bit more as the field approached the final bend and Calculator accelerated to the front with two furlongs remaining. After that, it was simply a question of how far and how fast.

The official winning margin was 4 1/4 lengths. Calculator polished off his last quarter in 24.45, and he completed the distance in 1:34.88, a final time good enough for a career-best 97 Beyer.

 


Bred in Florida by Richard C. Pell, Calculator was foaled in Florida on April 5, 2012. He sold for $132,000 at OBS last April after breezing two furlongs in 21.1 seconds.

Calculator is from the first crop of In Summation, a versatile sprinter that notched stakes victories on dirt, turf, Pro-Ride and Polytrack. In Summation won the first five races of his career at two by a combined 25.5 lengths. Among them were tallies in the $40,000 B L's Sweep Stakes (5 1/2 Furlongs, Calder), $75,000 Birdonthewire Stakes (5 1/2 furlongs, Calder), Florida Stallion Stakes - Dr. Fager Division (6 Furlongs, Calder), and Florida Stallion Stakes - Affirmed Division (7 Furlongs, Calder).

Although winless from eight starts at three, In Summation did finish second in the Grade 2 Nearctic Stakes (6 Furlongs, turf, Woodbine) and Grade 3 Hollywood Turf Express Handicap (6 Furlongs, turf, Hollywood).

At four, In Summation won the $60,000 Sneakbox Stakes (5 1/2 Furlongs, turf, Monmouth) before taking his greatest career prize, the Grade 1 Bing Crosby Handicap traveling 6 Furlongs over the Del Mar polytrack. He then dead-heated for first in the $124,000 Arlington Sprint Handicap (6 Furlongs, polytrack, Arlington).

In Summation raced two more seasons for trainer Christophe Clement and picked up four additional stakes victories. He nabbed back-to-back editions of the Grade 3 El Conejo Handicap at 5 1/2 furlongs on polytrack at Del Mar, necked the solid Barbecue Eddie in the Grade 2 Palos Verdes Handicap at 6 furlongs over the Pro-Ride surface at Santa Anita, and finished his career with a nose score in the $60,000 John McSorley Stakes at 5 1/2 Furlongs on turf at Monmouth.

Calculator's dam is the unraced Back to Basics, a daughter of Breeders' Cup Classic winner Alphabet Soup. Back to Basics is a half-sister to Grade 3 turf sprint winner Atticus Kristy, multiple stakes-winning turf router Distorted Reality, stakes-winning turf miler Fiery Dancer, and stakes-placed dirt router Myriad.

The third dam foaled stakes-placed With Every Wish, the granddam of Preakness winner Shackleford.

Although Calculator did look good in the Sham, objective observers must admit that the field he whipped was lackluster, to say the least. Also, while Calculator has some stamina on the bottom of his pedigree (Distorted Reality won at 10 furlongs, the broodmare sire and second damsire both won the Breeders' Cup Classic), there is a major question as to whether In Summation's progeny will be best going a true route of ground.

Calculator is certainly one to watch, but I have serious reservations about his abilities at distances beyond 1 1/16 miles.

***

Here are the top WINNING Beyer Speed Figures from 1/6/15 - 1/12/15:

1. LEA - 106 - Hal's Hope Stakes (G3) - 1 Mile - 10Jan15-7GP
2. BOLD THUNDER - 100 - Turf Dash Stakes - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - 10Jan15-8TAM
2. MSHAWISH - 100 - Ft. Lauderdale Stakes (G2) - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 10Jan15-10GP
4. CALCULATOR - 97 - Sham Stakes (G3) - 1 Mile - 10Jan15-6SA
4. GOOD DEED - 97 - Pan Zareta Stakes - 97 - 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - 10Jan15-4FG
4. KOBEL - 97 - Alw 37000N2R - 1 Mile 70 Yards - 12Jan15-6PRX
4. MORE THAN A PARTY - 97 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 10Jan15-9GP
8. ULANBATOR - 96 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 1/16 Miles - 10Jan15-3GP
9. WIND RACER - 95 - Md Sp Wt 40k - 6 Furlongs - 7Jan15-3GP
10. BLUECAM - 94 - Alw 8000s - 1 Mile 70 Yards - 12Jan15-7PRX
10. HOPPERTUNITY - 94 - San Pasqual Stakes (G2) - 1 1/16 Miles - 10Jan15-8SA
10. POMEROY'S PACKAGE - 94 - OC 12k/N1X -N - 6 Furlongs - 9Jan15-8GP
10. WEDDING TOAST - 94 - Miami Shores Handicap - 7 Furlongs - 7Jan15-9GP
14. PARRANDA - 93 - Marshua's River Stakes (G3) - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 10Jan15-8GP
14. SCAM - 93 - Alw 44646N1X - 6 Furlongs - 10Jan15-8LRL
14. WARREN'S VENEDA - 93 - Paseana Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - 11Jan15-7SA
17. EL NINO TERRIBLE - 92 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 Mile - 11Jan15-8SA
18. M DICATION - 91 - Clm 30000(30-25)B - 6 Furlongs - 9Jan15-9FG
18. POWER FOOT - 91 - OC 80k/C -N - 1 1/2 Miles (Turf) - 8Jan15-2SA
18. SOUPER LUCKY - 91 - OC 40k/N$Y -N - 1 1/16 Miles - 10Jan15-6LRL
21. EAGLE SCREAMS - 90 - OC 62k/N2X - 1 Mile (Tapeta) - 9Jan15-6GG
21. GOT EVEN - 90 - Clm 50000(50-45) - 1 Mile - 11Jan15-2SA
21. SACHEM SPIRIT - 90 - Clm 50000 - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 9Jan15-9GP
21. STREET BULLET - 90 - Alw 35000s - 1 Mile - 8Jan15-2LRL
25. FEISTY ALBERT - 89 - OC 25k/N2X -N - 1 Mile - 8Jan15-8LRL
25. KNIGHTS NATION - 89 - OC 62k/N3X -N - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 9Jan15-6FG

*LEA's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.

***

Eclipse Category
I was thinking there was an award for Broodmare of the Year. However, I cannot find it listed. Am I dreaming Dan?
David M

The "Broodmare of the Year" is selected annually by the Kentucky Thoroughbred Association and Kentucky Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders Association. It is not part of the Eclipse Awards. Each state has their own version of the "Broodmare of the Year." You can find a partial list of Kentucky winners below:

http://www.reines-de-course.com/broodmares_of_the_year.htm

Lisa Danielle was named Kentucky Broodmare of the Year in 2012. Take Charge Lady earned the award in 2013.

***

For those of you beginning to come down with a dose of Kentucky Derby fever, I've posted the lifetime past performances of the last 22 winners at the bottom of this blog. Let me know if you find any interesting patterns.

***

*If you're planning on attending the FormBlog Convention (see below for details), please contact Laura no later than January 12. She will assist with hotel reservations at the Hamption Inn, and we'll get a discounted rate courtesy of Gulfstream Park. Her e-mail is lross@ironmaidensthoroughbreds.com

The annual Gulfstream Formbloggers Convention is tentatively scheduled for Friday, February 27 - Sunday, March 1, 2015. I'll be working on getting hotel discounts at the Hampton Inn, across from the track.
I can pick up/drop off at Ft. Lauderdale airport, as it's about 15 min. away and you don't need to rent a car.
Every year, Dan joins us for handicapping fun, and contests. Gulfstream has provided a private suite and gift bags in the past, plus we have other swag from Breeders' Cup, etc. The "regulars" can attest that a fantastic time is had by all.
If you'd like to be on the mailing list for information as I receive it, please email me at lross@ironmaidensthoroughbreds.com
Laura

I'm really looking forward to it and hope to see as many of you as possible. The Formbloggers Convention is always great fun and Laura does a tremendous job handling all of the arrangements.

***

Annie and SR Vegas have compiled "The 2015 MKB Book of Kentucky Derby Prospects." I have attached it to the bottom of this blog post. Enjoy!

***

You can follow me on Twitter @DRF_DanIllman.

The video previews for the weekend graded stakes races will be available later in the week at the following link:

http://www.drf.com/videos#stakes-previews


***

Congrats to Rodney for finishing first in the most recent HandiGambling tournament.

Rick M's scoresheet is available at the bottom of this blog post.

On tab 2 you will see each HG Race we've held and they are color coded to denote if the race was run on Turf, Dirt or Poly.

Let's go with Saturday's Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds for this week's exercise.


PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.


SR Vegas and Rick M. have graciously decided to streamline all of the HG rules in order to make them an easier read for everyone...

With so many new people attending Dan's Formblog we thought it would be a good time to update the Handigambling Guidelines and Rules as we go forward in 2014.

Let's remember WHY we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses and why we're betting them the way we are. We are not asking for a novel but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.

HANDIGAMBLING:

-  Please start your post with  HG or HANDIGAMBLING to better recognize and find your entry.

-  You have a mythical $100 to wager in whatever format you choose and that is available for that HG race.
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.

- Post your WAGER and ANALYSIS to the blog WITH YOUR NAME/OR MONIKER AT THE END OF THE POST.  Remember that posts may start as 'anonymous' or an 'alternate name'. You MUST sign yourself at the end (even if it is the same) This enables the scorekeeper to recognize you .

- (1) ONE ENTRY per person for the Handigambling contest. If you have multiple email addresses, use just ONE for contest purposes.  Multiple entries will be cause for disqualification.

- Separate your analysis from the wager and use the horses # in your wager. Just like you would do in a real wager. No horse names.

-In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. Dan reserves the right to approve or deny any entries.

- The winner will receive a "60-Card Quarterly Formulator Past Performance Plan"

As an example :

HG 2014
The speed in this race goes to  horses # 1, 4 ,6 ..Ennie , Meenie, and Mo
Since it's a sprint I don't see any closers catching them.. like # 9 Miney.
I think trainer Groucho with the #6 Mo has the best stats in this condition, route to sprint.. just a gut feeling at large odds ML 20-1

HG wager
50$ Ex box 1-6
total $100

Thanks Dan!

Harpo
---------------------------------

A MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS IS ALWAYS APPRECIATED !
 
REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE; PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.

ALSO, IF THE WINNER WOULD LIKE TO SELECT THE FOLLOWING WEEK'S RACE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM NO LATER THAN THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY MORNING (A FRIDAY RACE IS MOST IDEAL)

AttachmentSize
LEA.pdf721.34 KB
DERBYWINNERS.pdf901.9 KB
2015 MKB Bio Document.pdf373.07 KB
Copy of Formblog Jerome Stakes 1-2-15.xls72 KB
HGLECOMTE.pdf160.02 KB
Jeffrey Cobb More than 1 year ago
Mike You are absolutely correct about Turf sprints at GP. They are all about speed. I realized this at some personal expense the last turf sprint Saturday at GP. The Chalk Beating Weasel
mike turfmonstr More than 1 year ago
David, Yes look it up.....there are some helpful text....it will go along way to explaining why turf sprints at Gulf are usually won on the engine.....or close to it......of course the slower the horses go the better chance a closer has.....but you'll see it. The thing about Exodus is he ran against horses that don't have much quality, horses who can't close down after a 44:4 and a last 1/8th in almost 14 aren't very good ones. Now that 14 was run after a 1/4 in 25 and change......which tells me he was slowing down even more.......now add his breeding......Unless this one has an life altering experience I just don't see it happening...and using Hard Spun as one example isn't going to change that.......To me it's chasing shadows. By The way Happy Birthday.... Pat, I hear you...and explaining to me the nuances wasn't necessary.....I offer an alternative......to me picking spots to bet 3-1 is more trouble than it's worth and recognizing false favorites is something I pretty much would have to be able to do betting as I do. Maybe it's the way I explain it......I'm very race and situation specific, I make most of my money watching when it warrants it. I know how Gulf and a few other courses play....I know what to look for and when. When there isn't anything I watch...... Pat.....I don't care what others do......I'm all for listening to anything someone has to say....if I like it I incorporate it, if not I don't. I'm never said it has to be my way.....people read what they want, they see what they want and seem to always forget exactly what I said.....that's fine.....what bugs me is after 6 years of posting horses before the race is run and putting up numbers no one here has ever done....and I mean actually posting and not saying they won....I should be able to tell folks things without hearing BS...especially when I back it up with charts, graphs and dialogue.....you know what I'll say what I always say....look it up...take the time, show me I'm wrong....sure I've posted about races that were run..I'm entitled to...to prove a point or discuss a race why not? I do have the track record you know.....there have been folks here who asked me about a race...I gave my opinion, my horse would win at big odds....you know what I get? More BS...not even a "Hey, your horse won way to go".....because for some unknown reason suddenly everyone has forgotten what I've done....like it never happened, but boy let me forget to dot and I or cross a T....and they come out of the woodwork......Here...I'll show you....Today I got home early. I called Steve because I had sent him info on a broodmare prospect, I wanted his opinion. While we were talking we decided to look at Gulf's races. The 7th was half over watching it live. So we talked about the 8th. I liked Hothersal at the odds, but Sachem Spirit and Dangerous Lad looked tough....so we bet Hothersal ATB and Boxed to the others two. The 5 won, Hothersal ran second Dangerous Lad third......I made a "few" bucks. The 9th I was all over Ginger Goose, but the 3 and the 5 looked tough again so I bet GG ATB with exacta boxes to the 3 and 5....the 3 gets up late beating GG....I collect again. The 10th Steve and I agreed that the race was between the 4-5-6......Steve bet the 6 ATB and I just played the box exacta......The 6 caught the 4 at the wire....at 10-1...the exacta paid 79.50....we won again......3 races 3 wins......all the prices are there I don't have to repeat them here......That was just fooling around......so let the bs start...... I don't care what others do, I don't care if they believe it or not, I don't care if they think it's impossible.....I've backed up what I say many times over...that is something many here have never done in the flesh......after the fact perhaps....and when I say "show me" I here bs and silence.....I gave someone the other day the ultimate show me...I asked them to go ahead and ask mutual acquaintances their opinion...ask them if I'm full of it, because they know more than anyone. Would I do that if I was full of it??....People make money? Show me.....quit trying to disprove things I say and just show me.......But they won't...trust me....they will however call me names and say I'm a liar.....but that's ok, because by answering that way they have shown me.......I'm not including you in that group...unless you wish to be......Mike A
edb More than 1 year ago
David M, Happy B Day. It is a pleasure to share your thoughts. edb
Anonymous More than 1 year ago
Spartan Tom, Your MAWTHOOQ is headed to the Withers on Feb. 7th!!! Your trainer wants to see if he should continue on the Derby Trail. Good luck!!!! Annie
Rodney More than 1 year ago
David M, Hope you have a happy birthday... I enjoy your posts, great insights, mixed with humour too.
Anonymous More than 1 year ago
David M, Well HAPPY BIRTHDAY!!! Hope you have a great day. Annie
Anonymous More than 1 year ago
Whackymacky, Welcome back!!! Oooh, snow. We, on the other hand, are enjoying brown and green grass with patches of snow. Unbelievable temperatures lately, we hit 40 degrees on a couple of days. In Minnesota, you just never know. Sorry you are getting the brunt of it this year. But, we've had our share in years past. Annie
pat gavin More than 1 year ago
DavidM9999 Happy birthday......yes no regrets. I got married late(32, and now not married). I was a crazy playboy, spent money foolishly, made lots, had great times, did what I wanted, but was always decent at budgeting. My father set me down(about a month before getting hitched) and made me join the Knights of Columbus......but I protested "I don't want to hang around and do what you old guys do". He laughed "At your age neither did I, that crap is what you do when you are older...join for the LIFE INSURANCE". No doubt that they are a strong(maybe the best) Life Insurance Company in the country. Every financial planner in the country will tell you that Whole Life Insurance is the WORST INVESTMENT that you can do. It was passive savings as I set it up to be taken out of my bank account.....I never budgeted that amount in my day to day....I considered it a TAX that I was paying to myself. COMPOUND INTEREST(even in this era) is really something over 20 plus years. So the stupidest thing I ever did.....was really SMART. I probably will be eating the Blue Plate Specials as well........and at 4:15 will be talking about what we are eating tomorrow. And after you win the PowerBall you can say..."the dumbest thing I ever did was really smart". It sure doesn't hurt to be frivolous or reckless with money from time to time. If we always did the absolute safest thing....life would be as dull as dishwater.....and we wouldn't have the temerity to think we can beat the game......we go on.
Dick W More than 1 year ago
Van Savant Congrats to your daughter for her fine performance at the recent swim meet ! I can imagine how proud you must be. Dick W
Michael More than 1 year ago
@ David9999....many birthday wishes to you! In this year's Kentucky Derby, maybe you should play a 5/9 exacta, 5/9/all trifecta and 5/9/all/all super :):):):) Eddie Buster Lewis