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Hymn Book and Richard's Kid Primed for Better
By Dan Illman
GAME ON DUDE and MUCHO MACHO MAN looked good winning the Hollywood Gold Cup and Suburban Handicap, respectively, but handicappers may want to zero in on the runner-up finishers in both races for future consideration.
The Hollywood Gold Cup didn't feature much in the way of quality pace opposition for Game On Dude and the classy runner took over the lead over the speed-friendly cushion track after six furlongs. Meanwhile, his uncoupled stable mate, RICHARD'S KID, was lagging, as usual, near the tail end of the field. It's quite possible that Game On Dude is simply a superior animal and the tactical advantage he owns over Richard's Kid is great, but Richard's Kid ran hard for second money and seems to be returning to his best form for Baffert after a disastrous 14-month trial in Dubai. Richard's Kid looks primed for a good run in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic over the Del Mar polytrack. He won the race in 2009 and 2010 and seems to relish the surface.
Meanwhile, HYMN BOOK was up against it in the Suburban as he attempted to rally from last over a speed-favoring Belmont surface. While Mucho Macho Man enjoyed a comfortable trip up close to pacesetter TRICKMEISTER, Hymn Book broke poorly and had to rally against the grain of the track. Hymn Book has already shown his class in races like the Grade 1 Donn and he looms a strong contender in Saratoga spots such as the Woodward and Whitney.
Richard's Kid and Hymn Book are late-runners that are dependent on race and pace luck, but seem in excellent form for top outfits.
Speaking about pace, BLUESKIESNRAINBOWS was the lone speed in the Grade 2 Swaps on July 4, and he made his six rivals pay after doling out fractions of 24.15, 48.18 and 1:12.88 on the front end.
REDEEMED may be the top "marathoner" in the country after taking the Greenwood Cup at Parx racing at odds of 1-10. Previously, he took the Brooklyn Handicap at 12 furlongs and his combination of speed and stamina is especially potent at these elongated dirt distances. It will be interesting to see if trainer Richard Dutrow Jr. gets a bit more ambitious with this good performer and tests the waters in races like the Jockey Club Gold Cup.
Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures (7/2/12 - 7/8/12):
1. GAME ON DUDE - 108 - Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) - 1 1/4 Miles (Cushion Track) - Betfair Hollywood
1. MUCHO MACHO MAN - 108 - Suburban Handicap (G2) - 1 1/8 Miles - Belmont
3. GANTRY - 104 - Smile Sprint Handicap (G2) - 6 Furlongs - Calder
4. BLUESKIESNRAINBOWS - 103 - Swaps Stakes (G2) - 1 1/8 Miles (Cushion Track) - Betfair Hollywood
4. FORT LOUDON - 103 - Carry Back Stakes (G3) - 6 Furlongs - Calder
6. DON TITO - 101 - OC 62k/N2X - 6 Furlongs (Cushion Track) - Betfair Hollywood
6. GUN BOAT - 101 - Alw 52936N1X - 6 Furlongs (Cushion Track) - Betfair Hollywood
6. RULE - 101 - Monmouth Cup (G2) - 1 Mile - Monmouth
6. TURBO COMPRESSOR - 101 - United Nations Stakes (G1) - 1 3/8 Miles (Turf) - Monmouth
10. COYOTE LEGEND - 99 - Assault Stakes - 1 Mile - Lone Star
10. MUSICAL ROMANCE - 99 - Princess Rooney Handicap (G1) - 6 Furlongs - Calder
10. ROYAL CURRIER - 99 - Mr. Prospector Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Monmouth
13. BAILOUTTHEMINISTER - 98 - Sam J. Whiting Memorial Handicap - 6 Furlongs - Pleasanton
13. FIDDLERS AFLEET - 98 - Chasin' Wimmin Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Belmont
15. SAINT LEON - 97 - Arlington Sprint Stakes - 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - Arlington
16. DOCTOR CHIT - 96 - Western Larla Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Belmont
16. ESPORON - 96 - Alw 42000N1X - 1 Mile - Monmouth
16. SCORPION STRIKE - 96 - Alw 8000s - 1 Mile 70 Yards - Suffolk
16. TOMMY'S MEMORY - 96 - Alw 25000NC - 6 Furlongs - Finger Lakes
20. CLEAR ATTEMPT - 95 - Poker Stakes (G3) - 1 Mile (Turf) - Belmont
20. CREPUSCOLO - 95 - Alw 30000s - 1 Mile - Monmouth
20. DUTY BLUES - 95 - Alw 25000s - 7 Furlongs - Calder
20. PAR0DY - 95 - OC 40k/N3X -N - 1 Mile - Penn National
20. SMART AND SINGLE - 95 - Md Sp Wt 51k - 6 Furlongs (Cushion Track) - Betfair Hollywood
25. AZAFRAN - 94 - Alw 28000N1X - 7 Furlongs - Calder
25. EMMA'S ENCORE - 94 - Victory Ride Stakes (G3) - 6 Furlongs - Belmont
25. GET SERIOUS - 94 - Red Bank Stakes (G3) - 1 Mile (Turf) - Monmouth
25. JIMMY CREED - 94 - Md Sp Wt 51k - 6 Furlongs (Cushion Track) - Betfair Hollywood
25. MARKETING MIX - 94 - Dance Smartly Stakes (G2-C) - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Woodbine
The lifetime past performances of MUCHO MACHO MAN and GAME ON DUDE are available at the bottom of this blog post.
Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures from last week's races (7/9/12 - 7/15/12):
1. GRACE HALL - 103 - Delaware Oaks (G2) - 1 1/16 Miles - Delaware
2. ANGELICA ZAPATA - 101 - Nancy's Glitter Handicap - 1 1/16 Miles - Calder
2. IOYA BIGTIME - 101 - Stars and Stripes Stakes (G3) - 1 1/2 Miles (Turf) - Arlington
4. SECRET COMMANDER - 100 - OC16k/SAL10k - 6 Furlongs - Monmouth
5. REDEEMED - 99 - Greenwood Cup (G3) - 1 1/2 Miles - Parx
6. POINT OF ENTRY - 98 - Man O'War Stakes (G1) - 1 3/8 Miles (Turf) - Belmont
7. RAHYSTRADA - 96 - Arlington Handicap (G3) - 1 1/4 Miles (Turf) - Arlington
8. DHAAMER (Ire) - 95 - Sunset Handicap (G3) - 1 1/2 Miles (Turf) - Betfair Hollywood
8. KIP BERRIES - 95 - OC 80k/N3X -N - 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - Arlington
8. LUCKY PRIMO - 95 - Alw 66240N2X - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Betfair Hollywood
11. DON'T SAY NO - 94 - OC 16k/N1X - 5 Furlongs - Calder
11. IT HAPPENED AGAIN - 94 - Golden Bear Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - Indiana
13. HERBIE D - 93 - OC 40k/N1X -N - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Hastings
14. ROMACACA - 92 - Modesty Handicap (G3) - 1 3/16 Miles (Turf) - Arlington
15. DIXIE STRIKE - 91 - Prince of Wales Stakes - 1 3/16 Miles - Fort Erie
15. ST. MAXIMUS GATO - 91 - Alw 60001NC - 6 Furlongs - Indiana
17. BOBBY HANDY - 90 - Clm 22000(22-20) - 1 Mile - Northlands
17. LADY OF SHAMROCK - 90 - American Oaks (G1) - 1 1/4 Miles (Turf) - Betfair Hollywood
17. MR. VALENTINE - 90 - Alw 40000N1X - 6 Furlongs - Penn National
17. SEQUOIA WARRIOR - 90 - OC 40k/N1X -N - 7 Furlongs (Cushion Track) - Betfair Hollywood
21. BEAR TOUGH TIGER - 89 - Alw 40000s - 6 Furlongs (Polytrack) - Woodbine
21. DONATO - 89 - Clm 22500(25-22.5) - 1 Mile (Turf) - Betfair Hollywood
21. FRANCOIS - 89 - Clm 16000N3L - 6 Furlongs (Polytrack) - Arlington
21. MOONSTRUCK MAYA - 89 - Alw 55000N2X - 6 Furlongs (Cushion Track) - Betfair Hollywood
21. STRING KING - 89 - Alw 29300NC - 1 Mile 70 Yards - Louisiana
21. SWITCH - 89 - A Gleam Handicap (G2) - 7 Furlongs (Cushion Track) - Betfair Hollywood
GRACE HALL'S lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.
Please check out the latest video production from Jessica Pacheco, Racing Analyst at Arlington Park. It's Part 7 and 8 of the "Behind the Silks" video series following jockey Tim Thornton through his ups and downs at this year's Arlington meet.
Part 7 - "Every Morning"
Have you ever wondered what it's like to be a jockey working horses at the track at 5:30 am? In episode 7 of "Behind the Silks," join Tim for the ultimate backside tour as he takes you with him out on the track and into the barns of trainers Mike Reavis and Larry Rivelli.
"Pace Makes the Race"
In episode 8, travel with Tim to Canterbury as he rides the favorite in a Stake and hangs with his best bud, jockey Tanner Riggs. Back at Arlington Park, Tim meets with a group of handicappers from Pace Advantage, and explains how pace affects a race's outcome. Afterwards, 8 year old Luke Johnston joins up with Tim for a visit to the Jock's Room.
Johns Call's career was backward . He was a jumper when he was young and a Gr I flat racer when he was very old. His PPs would probably look pretty cool if you have them LSD ?
John's Call's past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.
Turbo Compressor masterfully handled by Bravo. Pedestrian fractions and this thing was over. 25.14; 24.83, 25.11; 24.31; 22.22; 11.27. Will be fun to see Moss Pace figures on this thing. (Dan ?)
The Moss Pace Figures are not currently computed for turf races, but may be produced sometime in the future.
Hey Dan - have a great vacation. What with Ascot over and Del Mar and Saratoga beyond the horizon, I can't imagine any kind of busman's holiday -- hope it's beaches and rum drinks with paper umbrellas.
When you get back I want to hear your take on the NYRA edict for field size of 2 yr old maiden sprints. I can see that one of the projected benefits -- getting enough entrants for nw1 allowances for 2 year olds-- would also mean that there will be more 2 yr old races to get these graduates into the pipeline.
Since you have so much expertise about these maiden races, I'm curious if you think there will be less trouble with the reduced field size and will the results be more predictable?
The limit for field sizes in juvenile races at Saratoga is a good public relations move to promote "better safety" on the racetrack, although I doubt we'll have enough data at the conclusion of the experiment to prove whether that truly is the case. We should have more baby races due to the limit. On opening day, the juvenile maiden for fillies was split into two divisions. Without the limit, one race for 12 would have been written. Instead, we have two heats with eight apiece (including an also-eligible for each). It helps the racing secretary's job in that there won't be a problem filling cards. If other races look like they're not going to go, we'll see more juvenile maiden races. Theoretically, there should be less traffic trouble in races with fewer horses. Whether the results will be more predictable, time will tell. It gives the big barns a bit of an edge in that they don't have to race two babies against one another (note Pletcher with a runner in each of the divisions on Friday). From a gambler's perspective, I'm not a big fan of the shorter fields. Twelve-horse races are infinitely more interesting to speculate on than eight-horse affairs. It will be interesting to see if handle declines in these races although the addition of another division each day could equal things out.
You and Mike (¿did I see him smirk) dismissed the Italian raced Facoltoso pretty quickly from the Race of the Day, but he is well bred and gets Lasix and Gomez for Callaghan Simon. I know you know (You Know I Know is a scratch) that it's Gomez' 2nd call (and you don't give much *weight* to the jockey when handicapping) but the Oceanside always splits. My question is what did Mr Winner pay for him? Or does one just have to *know*.
How about it 10cent? ;
Facoltoso was a private purchase, but I will go out on a limb and say that Mr. Winner paid considerably more than the $1,335 he brought at the 2010 Tattersalls yearling sale. The first division of today's Oceanside is such a wide-open race that no result would surprise me. My thoughts were that the Italian stakes races are generally considered quite inferior to their British, French and Irish counterparts and that Facultoso seemed like a solid, if not spectacular, runner in Italy. Certainly, he could win. The race is that wide open.
Let's go with Friday's sixth race from Del Mar for this week's HandiGambling event.
REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.
PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.
Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.
Please post your plays and analysis to the blog.
PLEASE GIVE YOUR NAME OR BLOG MONIKER AT THE END OF THE HG PLAY AND/OR ANALYSIS.
Please separate the play from the analysis and label the play "HG" with the program numbers (instead of the horse's name) for easier scoring.
In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per person please.
I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
Best of luck to all.
I'll try my best to participate, but I have an earlier deadline for "Spa Babies" this year as it is moved to DRF GAMEPLAN and DRF PRO.
Ron Z Yes to all of your questions except the red shirt. I was born in Okla., raised in Nebr,, and live in GA. so I do have a lot of red shirts. If my son-in-laws try to give me any crap during the football season I just root for whichever of those teams has the best record at the time. :-) My wife wants me to get a vanity license plate - 'CORNDAWG' because either of those teams can usually beat whoever the son-in-laws are rooting for... I usually try to keep a very low profile at the track. My poker face is always on win or lose. Sometimes I even wait a few races b/4 I cash a winning ticket. When I cash out at the end of the day I leave immediately and haul ass for home. :- ) I am/was not offended by your reply. No appology needed. Okiesharp
Okiesharp , I didn't know you were sans tote either. Somewhere near the range of half the win price is semi accurate. I'd tell you all a story about what Russel BaZe has to say about jockeys choosing horses ,buttZ... I've told the story of Russel & Dutch before . Its in the archives. :-)
Baby filly race at Parx, the 7th at 5f MSW drew my attention, and the well bred #2 Unsighted by Songandaprayer out of a Pulpit mare is sent in by Alan Goldberg as a firster off a series of good works at 8-1ML, and expect she will be bet down. She has been working at Colts Neck Training Center, and she vanned over here 2 works back for a gate drill at 5f in 1:02+, so she should be ready. She gets myserious W/P action, and I'm also taking a three horse boxed exacta here with the #3 My Sonata (PA) making her second start after running 2nd behind the run away winner at 4&1/2 here, and now adding Lasix...Ron Glorioso is the low frequency owner/trainer and solid Mid-Atlantic jockey J.L. Flores rides, at 10-1 she is a cheap W/P/S back up straight wager. Filling the exacta ticket is the 4th place finisher in a 7/3 MSW that drew the 2nd thru 5th place finishers here, #4 Indian Splendor chased the pace setter for the half and tired in her first out. Has worked well for the comeback, and is 4-1 ML. Wager: W/P on #2 Unsighted (ON) off pedigree W/P/S on #3 My Sonata (PA) Exacta Box on #2,#3,#4. Good luck! Keith L. Keith L.
Thank you all for the warm welcome back. I have to admit that I missed you all. :) Van Savant, I absolutely consider the jockey in making my picks. Sometimes it even is "jockey racing", like when Bejarano and Rosario were striving for top honors at the end of the meets. And a top jock taking over for a mediocre jockey on a horse often gets him to the winner's circle. I even use it for first time starters. Well meant firsters usually will have one of the better jockeys or the trainer's go-to jockey on their back. It helps when trying to eliminate maidens in multi-race wagers. Annie
Finally got my house back together. I was out of everything. Plus, there has been tons of stuff to read just to catch up. Now I'm ready to dive back in again. First, Keith, congratulations on your nice hit yesterday, but sheesh, on the way to the emergency room? That is truly hardcore. Although, I must admit that I rode through a 31 foot snowfall blizzard so as not to miss a Breeder's Cup pick 6 one year. (Didn't hit it.) :) Dale, Glad to see you're still with us. Hope you're doing well. And look who else has come back healthy. Why it's your very own MKB, Ever So Lucky, running in the Curlin on Friday. Apparently he had a thyroid problem, but he's looking good now. Good luck! David M, First thing I had to look to see how the DMR Pick5s are going. Some really nice payoffs and a couple of little ones so far: 4,027, 12,766, 2,501, 152, 184 for the first week. But, the Pick 4s have been paying nice too: 647, 2567, 1151, 440, 98. Looks like the week days are better than the weekend. I'm looking at Wednesday now. Annie
Anyone wondering if Silver Max, 7 straight winner after his Virginia Derby score on soft ground might be pointed to the richer of the Arlington races, instead of the Secretariat against the samo samo 3 yr olds? Might be interesting! But sooner or later he will be beat. Looks like it could be a match with Howe Great or even Dullahan (if he doesn't take to the Monmouth dirt in the Haskel well) who meet him later on with the best chance for the upset.. Keith L.
My play today is at Parx (Philly) with an intriquing Trainer/Jockey Combo Daily Double wager in the 1st and 2nd races, both 16K claiming sprints, the 1st Race for 3 and ups open, and the 2nd race for 3 and up fillies. The trainer is Particia Farro, respected 23% strike ratio, and the jockey is her steady rider of late, 5 lb second condition bug boy Armando Ayuso, a 12% rider.in his first year apprenticship. 1st Race, #3 Next May, a 5 yr old gelding claimed from Keith LaBarrons barn in early July for $7,5K. 12/1 ML.. 2nd Race, #4 Stickyourtoungueout by B.L's Appeal, a lesser known but strong sire of sprinters, also claimed from Keith LaBarron's barn in early July, for 10K. 8/1 ML. Both are moving up in class, either being protected til Farro sees what she has, or going in for the price and a tasty Daily Double connections score! I'm gambling on the latter. $3 DD and a $2 W/P/S on both of these today. Miight be back if I see anything else of interest in the card today. It's a fast track, 90 degrees and sunshine promised for the City of Brotherly Love. Keith L.
Okiesharp, Your question on payoffs for 16-1 horses in the place spot was not perceived by me to be a dumb question. My apologies to you if you thought I was demeaning in any way. I usually post with an attempt at some levity in this very serious business of wagering our hard earned money. Since you do not always have access to TV monitors or the tote board, I will stick with my SWAG (had to look that up) answer of: Just bet. You will always at least get your money back which is not a bad thing. That is not much of an answer, but if you can't see numbers then you can't figure any payoffs. Have you noticed lately how many precipitous drops there are in horses odds at the major tracks between the time they are loading and the gates open. This is not past posting, but home computer wagerers waiting until the last second to punch the submit button. Or it could be the sophisticated automatic computer programs that are *looking for value* and dutching at an attempt to make a very small profit for the race and an even larger rebate. Last Saturday and Sunday it was particularly noticeable at Saratoga. Horses at 9/2 would drop to 5/2 to 3-1 in just one flash with a minute or less to go. I watch the place payoffs closely and the horse could be paying $4.00 at the gate and end up paying $3.40 after winning or placing. The last few paragraphs is still part of my answer. Even if you knew the payoff while they were in the gate, it could change significantly before the gate even opened, hence, the just bet advice knowing you will at least get your money back on WP wagers on 16-1 if they only place. Generally, a 16-1 place payoff will go up the last few changes of the tote board. So, why did you ask the question? Is this your wagering strategy? Is this an experiment? Are you better at picking 16-1 shots than 3-1? Are you wearing a red shirt when you go to the races? RonZ
Ron Z; Good reminders contained within your post about the reasons to pay attention. I agree with you. What I find interesting is the folks at DRF who repeatedly make the claim that they don't pay attention to whom the rider is, or they don't even know who is riding a particular horse. I have watched many analyses by Mr. Crist where he states this. Mr. Watchmaker too. And I believe it is Our Own Benevolent Sponsor who says "it's horse racing, not jockey racing". And while I understand these sentiments, I agree with you that there can be advantages to knowing and following the moves of the riders. Perhaps the claims of these fine handicappers are publicly stated as they are so as not to offend or inflame the particular colonies? Probably.
Dan, I have a beef regarding getting the full charts via drf.com. You need a login to view the full charts...what is going on here.
- 1.Posted 06/16/2013 08:05PM
- 2.Posted 06/15/2013 10:42PM
- 3.Posted 06/15/2013 09:20PM
- 4.Posted 06/16/2013 07:34PM
- 5.Posted 06/16/2013 01:25PM