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How He Did It
The winner of the $3.1 million pick six payoff at Santa Anita Monday invested $4,320 on a single 8x1x6x5x1x9 caveman ticket he purchased at The Meadowlands, according to this release from the track's media department:
The lone winner of Santa Anita’s $3.1 million Pick 6 on Monday purchased his ticket at the Meadowlands Racetrack. The $4,320 ticket yielded a $3,120,256 payout, a Santa Anita record.
The winner netted $2,381,423 after federal and state taxes. He also cashed the $7,786 five-of-six consolation payout 24 times, for another $186,878.
A three-day carryover of $1,269,223 heading into the Monday Pick 6, combined with the $3,337,881 that was bet during the card, resulted in a total pool of $4,607,104. Santa Anita’s Pick 6 requires players to pick the winners of the final six races on the card.
The winner is a New York City resident and entrepreneur who wished to remain known only as “D.”
He was, however, willing to discuss how he approached Santa Anita’s record Pick 6. His ticket was the following: (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9, 10) with (1) with (4, 6, 7, 8, 11, 12) with (1, 4, 5, 7, 9) with (3) with (1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 13).
D singled the favorites in two races, Norway House ($4.40) in the sixth and Medjool ($8.20) in the ninth.
“I thought the No. 1 was the standout in the second leg,” he said.
“Normally, I only single one horse on the ticket. [Race nine] was an open race. [Medjool] was the favorite and was 5-1, then went off at 3-1. I didn’t feel totally confident that he would win, but I felt he had shown the most ability at the distance. If I didn’t single another horse I would not have had an affordable ticket.
“In the first leg, I really liked the No. 4 horse,” he added. “If he went with shorter odds, I might have singled him, but he went off at 13-1 and I didn’t want to be dead in the first leg.”
The biggest upsets in the sequence were Mymomawzafandancer, a first-time starter who paid $47 in race seven, and Paparazzi Charm, who paid $69.60 in race 10.
“In the maiden race (race 7), I had a lot of negatives against a lot of the ones that had run before,” he said. “These were low profile connections, but the filly showed good works at Hollywood. Then I just hoped for the longest shot in the last race.
D’s prayers were answered when jockey Saul Arias and Paparazzi Charm, a 33-1 shot who had not raced since June, came flying from between rivals to win the last leg.
“Many horseplayers would not play a horse off a layoff like that,” he noted.
“The jockey [Arias] does not win that much because he does not get that many live horses, but when he does, they are longshots. I try to put in horses that have some remote possibilities. Otherwise, it’s not going to pay anything.”
Luck certainly appears to be on D’s side.
He purchased a $4000 betting voucher when he arrived Monday afternoon at the Meadowlands. However, when he went to make his Pick 6 bet, he realized it totaled $4,320. He searched his pockets and came up with an additional $331 – giving him just enough to make the bet and buy a couple of hot dogs for lunch.
D is a regular horseplayer who has had several significant scores in the past. He hit a $500,000 Pick 6 at Del Mar, along with one of the largest in Churchill Downs’ history.
“I’ve been playing horses for a long time, so it does not really change anything for me,” he said.
“I’m getting married in three weeks, so it is great timing. I am still in shock. There are large syndicates playing the Pick 6 and I am sure there were syndicates who put in $40,000 or $50,000 into the pool. The Pick 6 has been very tough lately. All the canceled dates because of the weather have produced huge fields at Santa Anita. There are a lot of longshots, horses coming off different racing surfaces, layoffs. It becomes a lot trickier. I play the Pick 6 when there are large carryovers. I focus a few hours on handicapping and only focus on the Pick 6 races.”
Tomorrow I'll explain how I cleverly used all six winners without managing to put more than four of them on the same ticket, and belatedly get to some of your many other recent questions.
$4,320 into a Pick 6 using 2 stand alones ? Such a wager requires intestinal fortitude the likes of which I do not have. The man earned that money.
Talk about ending on a high note re the big Pik 6. I and a convenience store owner invested $13.00 each on the Pik 6. We had 3 winners--leg one, and legs 5 and 6. I check the tickets for us. I fell through the floor when I saw the longshot winner in the last race, paying $69.60. I had him pegged as the best bet for the Pik 6. He was not a surprise, and I contemplated betting him to win, but no, one must be frugal when betting. When I go over a exotic wager, I look for reasons not to bet any given nag. Then, whatever is left becomes my play. In Canada, we have a distinct advantage re the Pik 6. We'll leave it now for another time. The longshot in leg 6 was available in the DRF. All one had to do was read. Gone for a while--am playing the High Five today. My total bet is 5 lines at a dollar each. I may get mocked, but going to an outlet with over 6 grand in my pocket, and playing 5 dollars is good for becoming a patient punter. The DRF has many "filters" that are not in the PP's.The info is there. The best rule is to play either the Pik 6, Magna 5, or a large exotic that has carried over. Low wagers work for me, and also the past trainer Horatio Luro, who was very tight with the late Frank Merrill Jr. Horatio always was telling us to "not squeeze zee lemon too many times or the juice, eet will be gone." Wish those two were in my life now.
This illustrates the one benefit of the caveman ticket – it is far more likely to cover combinations that include two, three or, in the case of a pick-6, even four longshots. Thus, while a more refined betting strategy will cover combinations the bettor thinks are more likely to occur, the caveman ticket will sweep in some combinations that the bettor thinks are less likely to occur but that are guaranteed to produce massive returns. This will be true to some extent even when the bettor considers a horse’s odds or “value” when classifying horses as A’s, B’s, C’s or X’s because “liking” a 25-1 horse typically means you think his fair odds are maybe 10-1, usually making him a C horse. For example, if a bettor is investing $3,000 in a pick-6, he could cover the 1,500 combinations he concludes are most likely to occur, taking a refined betting strategy to the extreme. On the other hand, he could put in a caveman ticket that might only cover half of the 1,500 combinations he considers most likely. The majority of the other 750 combinations covered by the caveman ticket, however, will usually be combinations that include multiple price horses and that pay more than nearly all of the 1,500 combinations the bettor finds most likely to occur. This is almost certainly what happened with Mr. D. I highly doubt the winning combination would have been among the 2,160 combinations he considered most likely to occur (if he had been forced to make a list of those combinations before the sequence started). Thus, not only did he use a caveman ticket, he would almost certainly have missed 6 of 6 if he had used a more refined betting strategy. Steve, do you agree with the analysis? If so, does that mean that while a caveman bettor will hit fewer Pick-6's, he will in the long run come out nearly the same as the more refined bettor because the ones he hits will pay more?
The benefits of the non caveman ticket has been well documented on this blog, but I've always preferred to stick with the caveman ticket for the reasons that Elsie from Chelsea illustrated. I'm guessing that this guy "D" plays caveman tickets exclusively. It can't be that bad seeing that this guy has won some big bucks in the pick 6, even prior to his $3 mil score.
Congrats to D, I hope his new bride won't restrict his horseplayin'
I love the color on the hot dog lunch (Big M frankfurters, yecch) before winning $3 mil...did "D." load up on free mustard and relish being there was only lint in his pockets at the time?
“Normally, I only single one horse on the ticket. [Race nine] was an open race. [Medjool] was the favorite and was 5-1, then went off at 3-1. I didn’t feel totally confident that he would win, but I felt he had shown the most ability at the distance. If I didn’t single another horse I would not have had an affordable ticket. Yeah, $4k+ is "affordable"? Now it is!
It was nice to see that a syndicate didn’t hit this “record breaking” Pick Six, plus the winning ticket was sold in my home state. I personally am not in the realm of investing $4,000 but if I previously had some fantastic hits like this gentleman has had before I sure would be. What I marveled at was his discipline. In Mr. Crist’s blog he says about “D” “He purchased a $4000 betting voucher when he arrived Monday afternoon at the Meadowlands. However, when he went to make his Pick 6 bet, he realized it totaled $4,320. He searched his pockets and came up with an additional $331 – giving him just enough to make the bet and buy a couple of hot dogs for lunch.” That takes a lot of restraint not to hit the ATM to play exotic wagers through out the Santa Anita card or simulcast. I have never hit a pick six but if I had (9) horses in the last leg I would feel very confident as I am sure “D” was. The only problem he was thinking of before the last leg was getting through to his accountant about a future W2G.