06/08/2011 6:14PM

Hot Sprint Division, Top Beyers

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After a few days of reflection, here are some thoughts on last week's racing action:

*TWIRLING CANDY may be the most naturally talented horse in a handicap division that is begging for a leader.  Although he fought his rider for over half the Grade 2 Californian Stakes at Hollywood, Twirling Candy still came with an eye-opening late run to win with something in reserve.  True, he didn't face the strongest field in the Californian, but one must wonder how good Twirling Candy could be if he learned to harness his energy in the early portion of his races. 
The Hollywood Gold Cup may be next on his dance card, but handicappers searching for value may do well to look elsewhere.  Twirling Candy can be his own worst enemy.  If he starts sparring with his rider going into the first turn of the 10-furlong Gold Cup against, possibly, better competition, he may be winded in the stretch.   

*I'm not sure if we learned anything new about HILDA'S PASSION after she dominated a weak group in the Grade 2 Vagrancy Handicap at Belmont Park.  We already figured out that she's quick from the gate and can put up fast numbers when loose on the lead.  She's a talented and speedy distaff sprinter, but what will happen when someone inevitably looks her in the eye after two furlongs?  Stay tuned.

*Last week, I mentioned several Bob Baffert-trained 3-year-olds that had done some nice things in Southern California.  Add ALIENATION to the list after the filly dusted off entry-level allowance runners by open lengths with a 101 Beyer.  A runner-up in the Grade 2 Adirondack in her second start at two, Alienation was making her three-year-old debut last week and looks like a sprinter/miler with some ability. 

*Although it wasn't Sunday Silence against the big chestnut in the Preakness, FRIEND OR FOE and RAIL TRIP put on quite a show in the Easy Goer Stakes going a one-turn route at Belmont.  A strapping New York-bred, Friend Or Foe looks and acts like he can successfully stretch out against better competition. 
As for Rail Trip, it was good to see the 2009 Hollywood Gold Cup winner back on his best game.  Plagued by foot problems for most of his career, Rail Trip, making his first start since last fall's Jockey Club Gold Cup, cut out solid fractions only to be headed on the wire.  If, and that's a big if considering his medical history, Rail Trip stays in one piece, he can make his presence felt in the handicap ranks.

*I don't know where it came from, but SEAN AVERY ran a hole in the wind in the Longfellow Stakes at Monmouth.  Rated off the speed and taken to the outside on the backstretch by Joe Bravo, Sean Avery assumed the lead with total command turning for home and drew away en route to a 112 Beyer Speed Figure.  Sean Avery has missed a ton of time throughout his career with injuries, but he's now raced three times in a row without a layoff line.  Perhaps we've found another top sprinter in a deep division. 

Consider these high-octane Beyer Speed Figures from the following sprinters in 2011 (6-7.5 furlongs):

Big Drama - 120
Maclean's Music - 114
Apriorty - 113
Sean Avery - 112
Custom for Carlos - 109
Hilda's Passion - 109, 108
Amazombie - 108, 108
Calibrachoa - 107
Euroears - 107
Camp Victory - 107

Sprinkle in a little Aikenite, Noble's Promise, Morning Line, Smiling Tiger, and This Ones for Phil and it should be a very hot summer among the shorter-distance runners.

***

Here are the top 25 winning Beyer Speed Figures from last week's races (5/30 - 6/5):

1.  TIZWAY - 113 - Metropolitan Handicap (G1) - 1 Mile - Belmont
2.  SEAN AVERY - 112 - Longfellow Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Monmouth
3.  HUMBLE SMARTY - 110 - Honor the Hero Turf Express Stakes - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - Canterbury
4.  HILDA'S PASSION - 108 - Vagrancy Handicap (G2) - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Belmont
5.  CAMP VICTORY - 107 - Los Angeles Handicap (G3) - 6 Furlongs (Cushion Track) - Hollywood
6.  WIREDFORTWOTWENTY - 106 - Prairie Express Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Prairie Meadows
7.  FRIEND OR FOE - 104 - Easy Goer Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - Belmont
8.  PONZI SCHEME - 103 - Skip Away Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - Monmouth
9.  MOTOVATO - 102 - Memorial Day Handicap - 1 1/16 Miles - Calder
10. ALIENATION - 101 - Alw 54584N1X - 6 Furlongs (Cushion Track) - Hollywood
10. AWESOME GEM - 101 - Lone Star Park Handicap (G3) - 1 1/16 Miles - Lone Star
10. NOBLE'S PROMISE - 101 - Aristides Stakes (G3) - 6 Furlongs - Churchill Downs
13. TWIRLING CANDY - 100 - Californian Stakes (G2) - 1 1/8 Miles (Cushion Track) - Hollywood
14. WASTED TEARS - 99 - Ouija Board Stakes (G3) - 1 Mile (Turf) - Lone Star
15. DAHOUD (NZ) - 97 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Hollywood
15. PARENT'S HONOR - 97 - OC 50k/N1X - 6 Furlongs - Delaware
15. SASSY IMAGE - 97 - Winning Colors Stakes (G3) - 6 Furlongs - Churchill Downs
18. DIVINE MUSIC - 96 - Alw 16320N3L - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Fort Erie
18. QUIET AGAIN - 96 - Free Spirit Handicap - 6 Furlongs - Ruidoso
18. RAHY'S ATTORNEY - 96 - Alw 86726NC - 1 3/8 Miles (Turf) - Woodbine
21. ABDEL'S GHOST - 95 - Alw 10000s - 6 Furlongs - Calder
21. ACHAK (Ire) - 95 - Clm 32000(32-28) - 1 1/16 Miles (Cushion Track) - Hollywood
21. CREW LEADER - 95 - OC 50k/N$Y -N - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Hastings
21. SMOKEY LONESOME - 95 - OC 80k/C -N - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Hollywood
21. WARNING SONG - 95 - Alw 53200N1X - 7 1/2 Furlongs (Cushion Track) - Hollywood

Tizway's past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.

For a closer look at some of last week's major stakes races, please click on the following link:

http://www.drf.com/events/stakes-horse-races-video-replays

***

Great discussion involving favorite races. Probably because I attended it, the 1976 Marlboro (the good old days when races were sponsored by cigarettes) was my favorite. Those who haven't seen it, do yourself a favor and YouTube it. Big Joe, to those who followed him was Forego's nickname and as usual he close like a freight train wide with a lot of weight on him. Dan would you please provide Forego's PPs? It's great to see what real handicap racing was by viewing the weight he always was asked to carry.
Thanks
Bill M

Forego's past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.  Forego won the Brooklyn Handicap three consecutive years.  This year's Brooklyn will take place on Friday afternoon at Belmont.  There are no Foregos entered.

***

Dan-
What happened to Fusao Sekiguchi? Did he just leave the horse racing business after Fusaichi Pegasus?
Brandon

I believe that Mr. Sekiguchi is still a player on the Japanese racing scene.  He hasn't started a runner in the United States since 2007.

***

Hi Dan,
When you have a chance could you tell me a little about an unraced 2yo colt named Prince Liam who is working out at CRC ? I saw that he is sired by After Market who is one of the sires that you are watching.
Thanks for all your hard work.
Don

Prince Liam, foaled on April 1, 2009, was bred by Donald Dizney in Florida.  The gray was withdrawn from last year's Keeneland September yearling auction. 

The dam, Good Intentions (by Anet), won the Franks Juvenile Fillies Turf going 1 1/16 miles on grass.  She also won at 5 1/2 furlongs on the dirt.  This is the female family of Wekiva Springs, who won the Grade 1 Suburban Handicap and Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Handicap.

I'm not 100% sure, but I believe Prince Liam is trained by David Fawkes.  A couple of his workouts match up with a Fawkes-trained juvenile named Flying Aptitude, a colt that finished third in his debut at Calder on June 5 with a 34 Beyer. 

Prince Liam may be best-suited to grass racing down the road. 

***

LSD can we see the PPs for King Glorious ? The greatest horse nobody ever heard of. I think Vicstu will like them
blackseabass

His past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.

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Dan, can u help me find out the average beyer for a 25000 Claimer, allowance, graded stakes and so on? thanks
chendrick

I'll refer you to the Simulcast Daily section of our homepage. 

http://www1.drf.com/misc/drf_simo/drf_simo_daily.html

Here's a sample of what you would receive with a subscription.

http://www1.drf.com/misc/drf_simo/tour/beyer_pars2.pdf

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Hildas paternal grandma{Borodislew-Daughter of Slew}{who dropped a Smarty Jones Colt}, I unfortunately came upon the fact that Borodislew was euthanized in 2008 @18, for you guessed it.....Colic.........For all the speed & stamina he produced, he sure did pass on the big bad Colic disease often......This comment was in conjunction w/my last question about the same........
Curt V.

I don't know if Seattle Slew passed on a "colic" gene, but I do know that his sire also died from colic.  It could simply be coincidence that some of his progeny have died from colic-related illnesses.  I really don't know for sure.

***

Dan
Some questions.
1. Today, Saturday, Hollywood 5th race, #2, Rock Solid Charm, +clm$25,000. What is the plus sign in front of the claiming price? I saw a plus mdn race at Monmouth also.
2. Is there a mark for the horses that are exempt from claiming in California first race back after a 6 month layoff?
3. My HG horse scratched today and got me to thinking. Let's assume the race had stayed on the grass. My horse was a first time starter, the 10, Astro Ruler. If this was a circuit you followed, and you liked this horse, would you put that horse on your watch list? Would you try to find out why he scratched? What might you think of him when he is reentered?
Thanks
RonZ

1.  I believe the plus sign refers to the turf chute.

2.  The sign for a waiver claimer would be listed like this in the past performance (i.e. Clm 20000 (20-18) - W).  The W for "waiver" would show up after the claiming price.

3.  If you like the horse, I would definitely put him on your watch list.  When he is entered again, check the scratch board for details on the scratch (vet, steward, trainer, off-turf, etc.).  It would really depend on the competition he's facing in that specific situation before I make a strong stand for or against.

***

HG 236:
Love 9-Elusive and here. Loved Touch Dial in that one's heydey. Not excited about H.Bull but loike other things about this one too much.
Improving beyers on 7 looks good to me
Easy play here:
$50 EX BOX 7-9
Michael D.

Congrats to Michael D. for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling exercise.  This week's race will be Saturday's Belmont Stakes. 

PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."

Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.

Please post your plays and analysis to the blog.

Please separate the play from the analysis and label the play "HG" with the program numbers (instead of the horse's name) for easier scoring. 

In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per person please.

I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.

I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.

Best of luck to all.

AttachmentSize
Tizway.pdf64.43 KB
Forego.pdf74.07 KB
King Glorious.pdf38.43 KB
HG237 (Belmont Stakes).pdf331.73 KB
nicole rosenthal More than 1 year ago
Dan, outside of Hilda's Passion is there any fillies out there that have caught your eye in the filly and mare sprint division?
zarpo More than 1 year ago
HG It is AK's race to lose. My next 3 choices are Brilliant Speed, Santiva and MOH but I knocked MOH down a notch due to travel and hitting NY heat. Supers $4 9/4,5/4,5/1,6,12=$24 $4 9/4,5/1,6,12/4,5=$24 $4 4,5/9/4,5/1,6,12=$24 $4 4,5/9/1,6,12/4,5=$24 $1 9/1/4,5/4,5.6=$4
DailyDub More than 1 year ago
HG237 $2 Tri Wheel 6,9/6,9/1,2,3,5,10,12 $2 Tri Wheel 6,9/1,2,3,5,10,12/6,9 $2 Tri Wheel 1,2,3,5,10,12/6,9/6,9 $2 Ex Wheel 2/1,3,5,6,9,10,12 $2 Ex Wheel 1,3,5,6,9,10,12/2 Leaning on Animal Kingdom, Nehro and Pletcher to finally show up for a big one. Shackleford may not get this distance but still figures in the tri. Nehro keeps coming close and figures to do so again. Although it looks like a case of lone speed, doubt it will actually play out that way so I look for the good closers like Rosario on BS and Gomez on MOH to come flying with AK, Nehro and maybe this time Stay Thirsty. After having Nehro and AK as my second and third choice in the derby, I will put Dan's money back on them and hope Pletcher, Joel or Gomez run in here and make the tri pay.
Dave K. More than 1 year ago
HG Belmont $1 tri box 1 4 5 9 12 $60.00 $1 super 5 9/ 4 5 9 / 1 4 5 9/ 1 2 4 5 6 9 10 12 $40.00 Animal Kingdom looks like the winner as favorite and will play him over Brilliant Speed and Santiva as horses who closed in the Derby. Concerned about no ITM finishes on dirt for Brilliant Speed but like the fact he has three works at Belmont and Santiva is getting his third start in a form cycle for the first time. Will ride the Goldwing to Grand Forks, ND to bet at OTB since I cannot get to Canterbury this weekend and the high takeout at Assiniboia Downs turned me off when I collected winnings on the Kentucky Derby. Good Luck to all.
Brandon More than 1 year ago
Just when you think a race like this Belmont looks so easy on paper something unusual happens and everything gets thrown up in the air. I recently said in my last handigambling analysis that James Bond doesn’t win grade 1’s anymore. I bet horses not people and I went against my first rule. I’m gonna play a ridiculous fun dime super here… $.10 super - 2,4,6,9/1,2,4,6,9/ALL/3,4,5,7,12 = $80.30 $4 exacta 7-9 $5 exacta 9-7 $10 trifecta 12-9-4
Joe L. More than 1 year ago
Handi 237 picks" Don't think the track will be speed favoring Belmont day. 20c superfecta box 1,4,6,8,9,10=$72 $3 triple 9/6,10/4,6,8,9,10=$24 $2 exacta box 3/7
KYL Syndicate More than 1 year ago
Saturday June 11 Belmont Race 1: SEAL COVE McGaughey has done well in the past few years with turf runners and particularly so when Castellano is named to ride. I failed to take advantage when they teamed up at Gulfstream first out on the turf at 20-1 as SEAL COVER was off a step slow, stayed on the rail in a good hold, moved off the rail to find room when they turned for home and they ran past the field in impressive fashion. Came back to run a good fourth on synthetics and now is back on turf reunited with Castellano in a race where there figures to be a good pace set up front with sprint speed from the 7 and others who like to run near the lead. Wagers: Exacta Box 5-3 and lightly on 5-4 ; Will box 3-4-5 with two others for 1 dollar triple and press with 5/3-4/ a few times as well. Race 2: CRUSHING August Osage has the best figure of those who ran after running a game second to BOLD WARRIOR who I like in the Woody Stephens. But I will go against him, primarily due to the 2 who will help ensure a fast pace upfront and will battle the 3 early, and then expect pressure applied by the 7. As I envision a contested pace, this sets it up for CRUSHING, who if he can replicate his race two back whereby he was forced to steadied which was probably in his best interest as he learned to sit back off the duel and in the stretch was given his cue, closing gamely for second. Wagers: Exacta Box 4-5, pressing the 4-5 exacta and a 4/ALL/5 tri. Race 3: EASY GALLOP Disappointed effort last out, a race I wagered on him, and although the drop in class is usually a concern, I'm not worried since it is Belmont Stakes Day with owners wanting to have their picture taken in the winners circle. EASY GALLOP has Curatolo aboard who has done well riding for R Rod and there isn't much speed in here, so expect to be on the lead from start to finish. The 13 is a must use if he draws in, but I really like the EASY GALLOP - Dixie Nite Out exacta. Wagers: 100 Exacta 4-6 Race 4: JOHANNESBURG SMILE - ELTISH STAR 11 horse field and the two horses who like to run on the lead drew the insider and outside post, but the preference is the outside speed in JOHANNESBURG SMILE. I had bet Glickman last out and he ran gamely for second behind Arch Traveler who figures to be second choice in the Woody Stephens, but Glickman has the misfortune of drawing the rail which means he has to be sent from the start and if he breaks slow, he risks being shuffled out of the race early. As opposed to JOHANNESBURG SMILE who has the outside post and will be sent from the outside but if others are sent early, expect Castellano to rein him in to stalk. The other horse to use in here is Eltish Star, who is 10 for 13 in the money at Belmont and although his last race was a win with a slow beyer, he closed into a slow pace and with a quicker pace upfront, he has a good shot to hit the board although I doubt he will be anywhere near the 15-1 in here. Wagers: Exacta Box 11-9 ; Win on 11 Race 5: No strong feelings on the race but will likely do a 5 horse triple using at least the 7-9-10 Race 6: TURBULENT DESCENT Deserving favorite winning 5 of 6 lifetime starts and unfortunately looks difficult to beat with others in the field having question marks. Rail draw and figures are one of the slowest in the field eliminates the 1, the 3 did not look too good winning last out and expect her to run with the 4 and both to tire on the turn. Wagers: Exacta 2/5-6 Race 7: THIS ONES FOR PHIL If it wasn't for the fact the 5 Calibrachoa comes off a layoff, was scratched last time out and did his best running on the inner track, he would have added intrigue to the race but can't endorse in here. Unfortunately this makes the race not as interesting as it looks like a battle between the 1 entry and 3. The selection is THIS ONES FOR PHIL who has the fortune of landing the outside post as the race did not come up loaded with speed and I expect Javier to be stalking right off the 6 for the first quarter before being let loose. Wagers: 100 Exacta 1A-3 Race 8: BOLD WARRIOR If Travelin Man did not draw post 1, he would have been my selection as he is likely the speed of the race. But as he has drawn the rail, this means he must be sent from the start so will side with BOLD WARRIOR to pull off a mild upset taking an ambition jump from a maiden win to the grade 2 Woody Stephens. This is a big move by Jerkens which is a positive and last out, he improved his gate habits by breaking on top and put into the race from the start. I expect Cornelio to actually try and clear Travelin Man early and take this field wire to wire. Wagers: 20 Exacta Box 4-5 ; 10 Triple 4/ALL/5 ; 5 Super 4/5/1-6-7 Race 9: No strong feelings on the race but will likely do a 5 horse triple using at least the 8-5-2 Race 10: STRAIGHT STORY Always been a fan of STRAIGHT STORY and if he runs, he will likely sit off the early pace set by the 1 entry, and will take over as they start the move on the far turn and hopefully can open up some distance and have enough to hold on for the win. Wagers: Exacta Box 9/3-4-6-7 Race 11: No strong feelings on the race but likely do a 5 horse triple using at least the 4-6-9 Delaware Park Race 9: 25 Exacta Box 1-3 ; 50 Exacta 3-1 HAVRE DE GRACE is one of the best older filly and will be tough to beat in here, but as this race is being used as a prep and also with SARAH'S SONG being lone speed, perhaps a mild upset or even if it comes in 3-1, may get 5-1 on the exacta. Monmouth Park Race 1: IL DIVO Tactical edge in this race as he will be on or near a soft pace upfront. Wagers: 25 Exacta Box 8-1 ; 50 Exacta 8-1 ; 5 Triple 8/ALL/1 Finger Lakes Race 8: BOB'S DYLAN A feel good story in Lisa's Booby Trap but the race is set up tactically for BOB'S DYLAN as she draws outside and is the speed of the race. Wagers: 20 Triple 6/2-3/2-3-5 TheObjectiveIsToWin Good Luck
Dale More than 1 year ago
HDG Belmont: I think this race is animal Kingdom's to lose. I do not like that he did not eat up completely after the Preakness, but he has looked great since and is certainly bred to like the distance, which is more than you can say for most here. I do not like MOH here...too much travel. MMM and Nehro scare me, but breeding on MMM does not scream 1.5 miles and Nehro seems to be the type that likes to run 2nd. Longshot pick is Brilliant Speed who may have the next best distance pedigree. HDG WAGERS: $6 TRI PW: 9 / 5-6-10 / 5-6-10......................$36 $3 TRI PW: 9 / 5-6-10 / 4-5-6-10-12...............$36 $2 TRI PW: 5-6-10 / 9 / 5-6-10.......................$12 $0.20 SP PW: 9 / 5-6-10 ALL / 4-5-6-10-12.....$10.80 $5 EX 9-5.....................................................$5 Good Luck to all, Dale
chendrick More than 1 year ago
Trifecta: 1>9>4,6,7,8,12 $40 9>1>4,6,7,8,12 $20 Exacta: 1 - 9 $30 Superfecta: 1>9>8>12 $6 1>9>12>8 $4 MOH is good, AK have the stamina, fair exacta
ole bob bowers More than 1 year ago
Anderson, Check the math on your HG play