03/24/2010 1:47PM

HG178 (Tampa Multi-Race)


Today's HandiGambling 178 exercise is the final four races from Tampa Bay Downs.  Pick 4, Pick 3, and Rolling Double wagering will be allowed.

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the races, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."   Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.  In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. 

Past performances are available on the previous blog entry.

I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place.  The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are.  I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.

The main track is fast and the turf course is firm.  Here are the changes as of this writing:


Race 8:  None

Race 9:  #6 - TERREMOTICO will be ridden by Octavio Bernal.

Race 10:  #8 SMOOTH JAZZABELLE races with Lasix.

This looks like a fun and tough sequence.

Race 7:
I'm intrigued by #9 INDY LEAGUE, a half-brother to Shooting Party (Grade 1-placed on turf). His sire, Mingun, is a half-brother to top turf sire Kingmambo.  Mark Casse and Willie Martinez have already teamed up for a debut winner at this meet and Casse generally does well with first-time starters.
#6 METEOR STREAK exceeded par (66 for the past five seasons) two starts back at 30-1 odds after being difficult behind the starting stalls.  He seems to have some tactical speed and shouldn't be too far off the projected moderate pace.
#1 GREAT KNOWLEDGE made a premature midrace move in his turf debut and may work out a good pace-tracking, ground-saving trip from his inside post.
#2 IKE'S BOY didn't have an easy trip last time out, but he ran a solid third going slightly longer in his previous turf appearance.  Interesting that he was Juan Leyva's second call behind the now-scratched 20-1 shot #12 THOR'S EGO.
#3 DIXIE LOE took some money for his career debut and may be part of the pace picture stretching out off that effort.  Her dam is a half-sister to Florida Derby and Fountain of Youth winner Vicar so the extra ground should help.
#5 TOUCH THE LIGHT is a firster that attracts leading rider Daniel Centeno.  Touch the Light is out of a multiple stakes-winning dam that won on grass and there is turf in the female family.  Early tote action may tell his story.

Race 8:
Wide, wide open. #6  LON'S HONOR has some early speed, goes turf to dirt, and takes a big drop in class.  It may be now or never time for this gelding. 
#3 STYLISH ACT finished behind #2 SECURITY BREACH in a slow seven-furlong race on March 7.  Both should be rallying from well off the splits.
#5 BAD MEDICINE seeks his fourth straight, but was claimed away from Kathleen O'Connell, and the horse usually doesn't switch leads in the stretch. 
#4 ROMA'S WORLD steps up off a maiden win, but needn't be the next superstar to win this event.
#7 DEBIT CARD repeats the route to sprint, 'n1x' to 16K claimer that resulted in a 10-1 win here on February 19.

Race 9:
#10 SAMMYTHEREDROCKER is a four-year-old gelding with only four lifetime starts so there are worries about his physical condition.  Still, he's fast from the gate and may control things from the outset. 
#5 FLY SO FAST ran well the last time he raced on grass.  The problem is that race was on November 16, 2008, and Fly So Fast was off for a year and a half after that race.  He showed speed on dirt in his comeback and can be tighter returning to his preferred surface.
#9 WINTHROP HOUSE ran well against starter allowance foes three back at Belmont, but bombed as the 8-5 favorite in his seasonal debut.  This was Daniel Centeno's second call behind the now-scratched #12 COUNT CATAMOUNT, a recent $25,000 maiden claiming winner on dirt.
#4 BROAD'S BEWARE goes out for the dangerous Jamie Ness barn.  He hopped at the start last time out and was finishing well despite not switching leads until the final eighth of a mile.
#11 PEACEFUL SLEWTION was making up late ground two back, may have found a mile beyond his scope last time out, and wheels back on only six days rest. 

Race 10:
#6 JANE looks like the one to catch and beat under Centeno. 
#1 BUSH DAISY drops from maiden special weight company after a pair of dull efforts.  Perhaps she'll wake up on dirt. 
#3 SKY ALLEY is a New York-bred debutante with some class on the bottom side of the pedigree.
#4 NOTHING SO RARE took money for both starts in New York, drops in class, and gets a positive rider switch. 
#11 PRIMETTA lost all chance at the start of her career debut when bet down to 5-2 odds.  Responded with a bullet for barn that excels second-out.

Here are my Pick 4 Tickets using Steven Crist's Ticketmaker format in FormulatorWeb.  Note that the brilliant ticket-creation system probably won't make up for my lousy handicapping.

$1 P4 - 6,9 with 3,5,6 with 5,10 with 6 = $12
$1 P4 - 1,2 with 3,5,6 with 5,10 with 6 = $12
$1 P4 - 6,9 with 2 with 5,10 with 6 = $4
$1 P4 - 6,9 with 3,5,6 with 5,10 with 1 = $12
$1 P4 - 6,9 with 3,5,6 with 9 with 6 = $6
$1 P4 - 1,2 with 2 with 5,10 with 6 = $4
$1 P4 - 6,9 with 2 with 9 with 6 = $2
$0.50 P4 - 1,2 with 3,5,6 with 9 with 6 = $3
$0.50 P4 - 1,2 with 3,5,6 with 5,10 with 1 = $6
$0.50 P4 - 6,9 with 2 with 5,10 with 1 = $2
$0.50 P4 - 6,9 with 3,5,6 with 9 with 1 = $3
$0.50 P4 - 3,5 with 3,5,6 with 5,10 with 6 = $6
$0.50 P4 - 6,9 with 4,7 with 5,10 with 6 = $4
$0.50 P4 - 6,9 with 3,5,6 with 4,11 with 6 = $6
$0.50 P4 - 6,9 with 3,5,6 with 5,10 with 3,4,10 = $18

Back to single-race HG next week.

Best of luck to all.

Sam M More than 1 year ago
Dan, If its not too much trouble can you please post the pp's for the 1990 kentucky derby. It was my fav derby ever. Also a 5k claimer I made a ton of money on in my youth named traveling tyler . I even became pals with his trainer for a few years Thank You !
Bernie More than 1 year ago
Dan Thanks for your recent post of the PP's for the 2001 & 2002 Ky Derby. Any chance of providing the PP's of the Derby field for the following years 2003 2004 2005 2006 Even if you can do 1 or 2 years at a time it would be great. Keep up the good work. Bernie
blackseabass More than 1 year ago
Zan, are you brigadier girard?
blackseabass More than 1 year ago
Cayman, sorry to here of your family health trouble it must seem very daunting. Let God be your strength and trust in him. I'm sorry for the part I played in the controversial bloging spat of the last week. Like C I'm a bit of a contrarian which isn't really bad from a handicapping standpoint but from the communication standpoint not so good. Best wishes
Zan the Man More than 1 year ago
blackseabass and jeff: Yes, Native Dancer is the answer. Mathieu: So I get all the beer I can drink in the Pimlico infield? Might improve my handicapping. Cayman: I support your thoughts on "playing nice". All of us should keep in mind that blogs (and this blog in particular) are "play", not work. Let's lighten up and fly right. MYSTERY HORSE II: The Sequel I'm also a retired race horse. Native Dancer and Secretariat were OK, but I was pretty good,too. I also lost just one race in my career. Of course, I'm not Ruffian - she didn't really "lose" her last race. Who am I?
Annie More than 1 year ago
Ziva, None of those four is taken, so you and OTP can each pick one, if you like, and let me know. Also, hope you join in Laura's Chat tonight. It's always informative and fun. :) Annie
blackstone More than 1 year ago
Laura Thank you for the offer re GP tomorrow. I am playing the 8th, 10th, and 11th, but I have a plan and am pretty well set. Whether the plan works, of course, is a far different matter. I'm hoping to get to the Chat tonight, but to do so I'm trying to weasel out of a conflictiing grandson commitment. So, I'm not sure.
C More than 1 year ago
cayman, Sorry to hear about your current situation. blackstone, No need for apologies... honestly, I can't think of which comment you're even talking about. Trust me, I don't take anything written here personally, so there's no need to clarify and certainly no need to feel bad about anything. I'm not always Mr Congeniality anyway, so I'm also sorry if anything I wrote was harsh. Dan, Why did DRF stop offering the unlimited replay option with Formulator? It was nice being able to click on any replay right there in the program... now we have to purchase them separately. I would've paid even more than the $10 for the convenience of having everything in 1 place.
blackstone More than 1 year ago
Whacky-Angles Document This doesn't really matter as it's not central to anything going on, but the Angles Document, Whacky, has forty-seven angles provided by twenty-one different bloggers. I'm only saying all this as I still think there is some very powerfull stuff there. Also, I still have it available and could easily cut and paste it back here (since my eight year old grandson taught me how) should anyone want it.
Laura More than 1 year ago
Emirates Racing offers a Form Guide to the horses and World Cup races - FREE! I'm still figuring it out, but it appears to give more info than the BRIS PPs (which are also free). http://emiratesracing.com/racing-information/form-guide Timeform offers it's verion too: http://www.timeform.com/free/ As does TVG: http://www.tvg.com/forms/MeydanPPs032710.pdf Hope this helps! Laura