03/24/2010 2:47PM

HG178 (Tampa Multi-Race)

Email


Today's HandiGambling 178 exercise is the final four races from Tampa Bay Downs.  Pick 4, Pick 3, and Rolling Double wagering will be allowed.

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the races, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."   Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.  In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. 

Past performances are available on the previous blog entry.

I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place.  The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are.  I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.

The main track is fast and the turf course is firm.  Here are the changes as of this writing:

Race 7:  Scratch #11 CARDIAC CAT, #12 THOR'S EGO, #13 ROBBIE'S EXPRESS, #14 DESENFRENADO.

Race 8:  None

Race 9:  #6 - TERREMOTICO will be ridden by Octavio Bernal.
 Scratch #7 TWO STEP HERO, #12 COUNT CATAMOUNT, #13 BELAFONTE

Race 10:  #8 SMOOTH JAZZABELLE races with Lasix.
 Scratch #11 SECRET OF MARRIAGE, #12 NUFF SAID P Y T

This looks like a fun and tough sequence.

Race 7:
I'm intrigued by #9 INDY LEAGUE, a half-brother to Shooting Party (Grade 1-placed on turf). His sire, Mingun, is a half-brother to top turf sire Kingmambo.  Mark Casse and Willie Martinez have already teamed up for a debut winner at this meet and Casse generally does well with first-time starters.
#6 METEOR STREAK exceeded par (66 for the past five seasons) two starts back at 30-1 odds after being difficult behind the starting stalls.  He seems to have some tactical speed and shouldn't be too far off the projected moderate pace.
#1 GREAT KNOWLEDGE made a premature midrace move in his turf debut and may work out a good pace-tracking, ground-saving trip from his inside post.
#2 IKE'S BOY didn't have an easy trip last time out, but he ran a solid third going slightly longer in his previous turf appearance.  Interesting that he was Juan Leyva's second call behind the now-scratched 20-1 shot #12 THOR'S EGO.
#3 DIXIE LOE took some money for his career debut and may be part of the pace picture stretching out off that effort.  Her dam is a half-sister to Florida Derby and Fountain of Youth winner Vicar so the extra ground should help.
#5 TOUCH THE LIGHT is a firster that attracts leading rider Daniel Centeno.  Touch the Light is out of a multiple stakes-winning dam that won on grass and there is turf in the female family.  Early tote action may tell his story.

Race 8:
Wide, wide open. #6  LON'S HONOR has some early speed, goes turf to dirt, and takes a big drop in class.  It may be now or never time for this gelding. 
#3 STYLISH ACT finished behind #2 SECURITY BREACH in a slow seven-furlong race on March 7.  Both should be rallying from well off the splits.
#5 BAD MEDICINE seeks his fourth straight, but was claimed away from Kathleen O'Connell, and the horse usually doesn't switch leads in the stretch. 
#4 ROMA'S WORLD steps up off a maiden win, but needn't be the next superstar to win this event.
#7 DEBIT CARD repeats the route to sprint, 'n1x' to 16K claimer that resulted in a 10-1 win here on February 19.

Race 9:
#10 SAMMYTHEREDROCKER is a four-year-old gelding with only four lifetime starts so there are worries about his physical condition.  Still, he's fast from the gate and may control things from the outset. 
#5 FLY SO FAST ran well the last time he raced on grass.  The problem is that race was on November 16, 2008, and Fly So Fast was off for a year and a half after that race.  He showed speed on dirt in his comeback and can be tighter returning to his preferred surface.
#9 WINTHROP HOUSE ran well against starter allowance foes three back at Belmont, but bombed as the 8-5 favorite in his seasonal debut.  This was Daniel Centeno's second call behind the now-scratched #12 COUNT CATAMOUNT, a recent $25,000 maiden claiming winner on dirt.
#4 BROAD'S BEWARE goes out for the dangerous Jamie Ness barn.  He hopped at the start last time out and was finishing well despite not switching leads until the final eighth of a mile.
#11 PEACEFUL SLEWTION was making up late ground two back, may have found a mile beyond his scope last time out, and wheels back on only six days rest. 

Race 10:
#6 JANE looks like the one to catch and beat under Centeno. 
#1 BUSH DAISY drops from maiden special weight company after a pair of dull efforts.  Perhaps she'll wake up on dirt. 
#3 SKY ALLEY is a New York-bred debutante with some class on the bottom side of the pedigree.
#4 NOTHING SO RARE took money for both starts in New York, drops in class, and gets a positive rider switch. 
#11 PRIMETTA lost all chance at the start of her career debut when bet down to 5-2 odds.  Responded with a bullet for barn that excels second-out.

Here are my Pick 4 Tickets using Steven Crist's Ticketmaker format in FormulatorWeb.  Note that the brilliant ticket-creation system probably won't make up for my lousy handicapping.

$1 P4 - 6,9 with 3,5,6 with 5,10 with 6 = $12
$1 P4 - 1,2 with 3,5,6 with 5,10 with 6 = $12
$1 P4 - 6,9 with 2 with 5,10 with 6 = $4
$1 P4 - 6,9 with 3,5,6 with 5,10 with 1 = $12
$1 P4 - 6,9 with 3,5,6 with 9 with 6 = $6
$1 P4 - 1,2 with 2 with 5,10 with 6 = $4
$1 P4 - 6,9 with 2 with 9 with 6 = $2
$0.50 P4 - 1,2 with 3,5,6 with 9 with 6 = $3
$0.50 P4 - 1,2 with 3,5,6 with 5,10 with 1 = $6
$0.50 P4 - 6,9 with 2 with 5,10 with 1 = $2
$0.50 P4 - 6,9 with 3,5,6 with 9 with 1 = $3
$0.50 P4 - 3,5 with 3,5,6 with 5,10 with 6 = $6
$0.50 P4 - 6,9 with 4,7 with 5,10 with 6 = $4
$0.50 P4 - 6,9 with 3,5,6 with 4,11 with 6 = $6
$0.50 P4 - 6,9 with 3,5,6 with 5,10 with 3,4,10 = $18

Back to single-race HG next week.

Best of luck to all.