10/25/2011 1:07PM

HG 256 PP's (Hawthorne)


Hey guys,

I'm currently swamped with Breeders' Cup work, but want to give you the past performances for Wednesday's HandiGambling exercise. 

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.
Please post your plays and analysis to the blog.
Please separate the play from the analysis and label the play "HG" with the program numbers (instead of the horse's name) for easier scoring.
In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per person please.
I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.


Will try to be back for the race, but will more likely talk to you later in the week when things settle down a bit.

HG256.pdf180.38 KB
Bernard Downes More than 1 year ago
knm, I will also be looking at possible value bets with the UK Bookies over the M/L favourites. I will post if I spot anything. Regards - Bernard Downes
meathead01 More than 1 year ago
Breeders Cup Friday a first look R5 BC Juvinile Sprint #6 Secret Circle no works yet on the track but BB knows best I think a single is in order here #7 Holdin Bullets nice front running win at keenland in fast time worked three of 62 breezing R6 BC Juvinile Fillies Turf #9 Pure Gossip first turf dominated going longer than today should turn in a super effort with curatola trainer 40% with Gr. Stks #14 Somali Lemonade whats to be said two for two both strong finishes and solis has the keys worked yet another bullet at keenland for this R7 BC Fillies and Mares Sprint #3 Turbulent Descent lost in the mud at belmont and returned to dominate in the Test with flores is three for three at this distance for puype #12 Pomeroys Pistol second back after rest and last was getting it done for sure will be pushing TD all the way R8 BC Juvinile Fillies #2 Candrea has done little wrong in her career just missed in last will be an early factor #5 Grace Hall three for three is hard to overlook and today gets tested longer look what dominguez did last time he rode #9 My Miss Aurelia another with three wins all in front and that last with nakatani was the best of all romping in the mile #13 Say a Novena was in hand last and pulled away from group by six and change should stretch out just fine at a price R9 BC Filly and Mare Turf #2 Stacelita (FR) dominguez takes over and promply wins two tough ones in a row for brown returned from last with bullet at belmont with the dogs #10 Distorted Legacy lost all chance to catch Stacelita by losing whip in last but was making a run after being passed by her in the stretch R10 BC Ladies Classic #7 Ultra Blend flores has been the runner up in all his races but think today he finally gets it right has the style to win this one for sherman #8 Plum Pretty awesome win in last with bejarano up and think she repeats that effort here is one for one at this track some longshots I will be using R5 #8 Jake Mo R6 #8 Hard Not to Like R7#5 Musical Romance R8#13 Say a Novena R9#3 Harmonious R10#1 Miss Match (ARG) will post final picks thursday am looking forward to all other picks here on the blog good luck all MH01
Dick W More than 1 year ago
Some random ramblings: Bernard and C Thanks to both of you for your thoughtful analyses of some of the Euros. Good stuff , Re Jackson Bend I see they have decided to go in the sprint. While I know there are some on the blog who feel he is better suited to the dirt mile, it is my opinion that they have made the correct decision and I will be giving him strong consideration to take down the sprint. The decision did surprise me a bit. BSB (PH results) Since I have not been posting my PH picks on the blog (because they have been pretty pathetic until recent weeks) and since you are generally the only one to notice when I have some success, I have been patiently waiting for a post from you congratulating me on having that $47.20 winner from the Turf Paradise race. LOL...That was by far my biggest score since entering the PH contest. The bad news was I had no real $$$ on the race :(. I attribute that pick to my horse racing roots from the old Longacres/Emerald Downs days. I used to watch Vicki Baze when she was Vicki Aragon and her husband Gary Baze ride back in those days with a great deal of success. She still knows how to ride a horse. I seem to remember someone on the blog quite some time ago telling a story about how tough she was. Was that you, Keith L ??? Anyway, even though that hit moved me up about 500 places in the standings, I am still mired down towards the bottom of the pack. Only Saturdays Breeders cup races (all 9 !) to go in the contest. SA feature Sunday How in the world did Times Gone By get off at 12 to 1 yesterday ? I admit I did not look at the PP's, but I am familiar with the horse's record and at 7 to 2 on the ML seemed like a gift. And no, I did not bet the race. Only saw the results. Any form bloggers have that one ? Life Yesterday was my birthday...69th ! Had a wonderful family gathering with all the folks I care most about. My Sis, 2 daughters and 3 grandchildren. I try to treat each day as a gift because that is exactly what it is. Be kind to one another. Dick W
Van Savant More than 1 year ago
Dick W.; Right you are on the subject "Life". Thanks for the friendly reminder. And happy belated birthday, young man.
meathead01 More than 1 year ago
Dick W happy birthday to you I thought I was the oldest here on the formblog but I guess not well anyway Happy Birthday and congrats on that Tur P hit my home track for sure MH01 that scains sounds like something good to eat
Molesap More than 1 year ago
C, GREAT run down of the foreign contingent coming to the Breeder's Cup. Can I look forward to any more? Perhaps the juvenile turfers from overseas?
Mike A More than 1 year ago
BSB Ahhh, you weren't here for the spirited back and forth between me and C (imagine that) about who was better Rachel or the Z'ster......I loved that horse....she reminded me of yesteryear. Zenyatta that is....RA didn't impress me as much....though she was good. 9 and change you say on the turf? well there was one thing about Z I always knew.......however fast she needed to go to get there, was as fast as she went..........an absolute "killer" racehorse.....I think her only loss really tells the story......that was an awesome race considering how the track was playing and she hopelessly lagging.......Just one more jump......Oh well, that's horse racing.......Mike A
Mike A More than 1 year ago
MH01 Well if you ever wondered whether I read your post's all the time now you know I do, since you didn't write my name and I figured you were speaking to me...........To be honest, I don't know, he never said whether he did or not. I know he did bet along with some of the bets he "ran", but that was ancient history.....he only talked about specific "hits" when trying to explain something to me or when he told a story. Of course being my uncle and understanding his penchant for showing me the "big picture" I never thought him bragging. Sometimes I wish some folks on here would give me the same courtesy.......oh well....."Contre ma volonte oncles, c'est le chemin que j'ai choisi".......I'll deal with it. Maybe I should pay attention to the french Fillies running this weekend? Even if statistically The Americans fillies and mares have won more of the F&M turf races......nice odds to boot. Before a few of you lose your minds however.....I know some of those "Americans" started their careers overseas and raced in England and France before coming here.......technically though we're up 7-5. Is Stacelita a US horse?......She was bred in Germany, by a German Sire and dam.....has raced here 3x's American? Hardly, but I reckon if she wins we'll take it.......At least Intercontinental raced here for a while before beating Ouija Board. Back to my uncle.......you have to realize he was privy to lots of info, so when he taught me his way was to lean heavy on the horses themselves, not so much what was on paper. The way he explained was "there would be very few longshots if the pp's showed you everything there is to know, I'm going to teach you the things that the paper doesn't show you". In think he did well in explaining...he must have, I've been accused of having a crystal ball......My new Dan Illman blog name is Swami Mike A.......picture it............ I sit in a darkened room.....Swami hat in place, flowing robes, (u get the picture) A round table before me, just a foot off the floor.......the racing form laid out on the table......of course there's candles.....incense burning.......pentagrams carved into the table......drums beating......(the usual stuff) I mix into a pestal......a piece of a horses hoof, some tail and mane hair....... .and one pound of Quaker oats, of which I only use 1/2...the other half is for my breakfast........ I wave a jockey's whip over it and it Alights!!! I pass my outstretched hands over the table in a circular motion.......I chant "ennie meenie, chilly beenie.......spirits tell me the winner of the 10th at CD's.......... There's a reply...........oooooooohhhhhh.......aaaaaaaaaaahhhhhh.....is that today or wednesday......oooooooowwww........ Today oh most benevolent spirits.......there is a stir...the table starts to shake........The winner of the race they'll be no maybe.......she'll win alright it's "On Fire Baby"........... Thank you oh spirits.....and by the way, keep it down the neighbors are complaining...... True story......Jonah was on the phone with me when I "picked" her, of course the hardest part was keeping him from hearing the spirits speak.......The spirits also put me onto Starforce in the 7th......so if you wish to blame someone for redboarding blame the spirits,,,,though I'd be real careful, they are most powerful and do not take abuse well.......Funny part? no emails there.....just Jonah, the Swami's apprentice....hahahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!........Mike A
meathead01 More than 1 year ago
mike a all that Italian you wrote means only "Ill deal with it" ? I figured the spirits might say whats the conditions mike? great post MH01
Annie More than 1 year ago
Swami Mike A, Well, it wasn't just the 46.50, but also the 59.02 and out in 1:12.51 running strong. "a manner somewhat reminiscent of Street Sense's final prep prior to his victory in the 2007 Derby." He also has worked a bullet 59.4 and breezed a mile in 1:43 at CD. The point being that he is obviously fit and healthy and is liking that CD track. And he certainly is at the top of his game right now. And that 2:03 1-1/4 win at BP was on a muddy track. OK, Swami, who do you think will win the Classic? :) Annie
Annie More than 1 year ago
Ron Zuercher, Luckily I don't have to make that decision, since it's only about 38 degrees here. :) I am getting really impatient with Captcha! He isn't giving me any dumb word games, but he refuses to recognize me. And I am getting tired of having to enter my name and e-mail every time. Luckily I picked a short user name. Annie
Annie More than 1 year ago
Oh goody, DRF is showing the draw. Well, I'll just watch it right here. :) Annie
Annie More than 1 year ago
VQ, I see you're shootin high with PRAYER FOR RELIEF. Going to run him in the Classic, huh? Well, good luck! :) Who knew? Annie
Curt V. More than 1 year ago
I think Byron King has Slewster on the brain.....I also think he's out-thinking himself..He has evoked the name Slewster[which means Speed & Stamina]all enrapted into one package, too, too much..What's he scared of ? That's because the Slewster always out-did the pundits.. He says, even if Uncle MoMo had the Slewster, he wouldn't bet him..I say watch Urself big boy..Speed kills... He says, he wouldn't bet the Worlds' fastest man, Usain Bolt, if he ran in the 400..I say watch URself big boy....Speed kills.....That's 2 out 3 mistakes{3 is next}.. Then in the next sentence he goes on to contradict himself..He likes Grace Hall. Why big boy ? Because she has a stamina-laden pedigree. I wonder who that is big boy ? It aint A.P. Indy..So, who is it big boy ? Why it is none other than the Slewster of doom..Himself, Seattle Slew. Well she's out of Mr. Prospector & a Seattle Slew mare..Now, which one of those 2 has the Stamina ? & C, It's because Uncle MoMo & Stay Thirsty haven't said they are greatest horses ever. Or at least greatest horses of the month club..Of ChorZe over there the greatest horses ever, come along about every time the Santa Ana winds change. Over here we use the term Greatest w/respect & we throw the term around like when we throw nickels around...You know, like "Nickels are manhole covers...."..The point is if Goldikova was the greatest as they led us to believe, she had 3 years to put her money where mouth is..Zenyatta would have put an end to that trash talk, on any surface, any condtion, any length, any state, any country, any continent, any age, ad nauseum..That's why ZZZ ran in the Classic 2 times. Not in the minor leagues..And as far as Zenyatta going 12 furlongs..Thats' a no brainer..She just gets started after 1 1/4..Seriously, Zenyatta was in an entirely different league than Goldikova..Z is the NFL, G is the Canadian Football League......
David M More than 1 year ago
You have to love the Superstars of Tomorrow days at CD. So many MSW mixed with some stakes. I enjoy betting maidens particularly on turf because it seems to offer so much value. Many wide open events with exciting breeding. As cold as I was at KEE (cold is an understatement) I was on fire yesterday. Earlier in October I mentioned the most impressive MSW winner at Ellis Park in 2011 was On Fire Baby. Whispers out of the Hartlage barn was this was his most talented horse he ever saddled. That kind of talk I usually dismiss but she can run. I defensively played her in the Alchibades at KEE when she was marooned in the 13 hole that simply is unwinnable from. Yesterday she drew well and ran back to the Ellis form winning at 9-1. I was expecting 20-1 with Hartlage/Johnson but $20 was solid mutuel. I missed a nice Pick 4 when I could not find graded event dropper $17 Lauries Rocket. It paid $6,100 and it was infinitely haveable since I singled On Fire Baby. One of my favorite turf under the radar turf sires, Horse Chestnut. provided a nice ticket earlier on the grass. The DRF listed him as 12% first turf but I swear he wins at twice that when I play that sire. As a Larry Jones fan, I have also had my issues with Gabriel Saez's rides but he put Starforce on the lead, clicked off 24's and held her together late. WP, very generous trifecta and pick 3 with Starforce got me out for the whole KEE meeting. Shout out to the form bloggers on Seve. Some folks were commenting on him earlier at SAR. I used him and he ran a strong second behind Starforce. I like MSW and MSW turf events in paticular. The fewer running lines the more I feel at home. That sounds counter intuitive and crazy so bloggers feel free to hammer me on that but it works for me. Where else can you get 50-1 on a Hard Spun baby trained by CD kingpin Dale Romans? Hopefully this post is not considered redboarding as folks get annoyed with that. I don't, I just like to hear folks making money and sharing how they do it. I had been so cold at KEE I was relectant to to post picks. The last post I had from KEE the CAPTCHA line was "DO US A FAVOR AND HIT DELETE BEFORE SENDING DAVID". It feels good to go into BC off a very nice day.
David M More than 1 year ago
Bernard Downes: Keep coming with the Euro analysis. The DRF is exceptionally weak in its coverage of overseas racing. we hear from Alan Shuback about once a month. I follow your posts closely Bernard. With the BC coming expertise on Euro shippers is valuable. Like Steve mentioned Zenyatta talk is like politics, it simply stokes the fires. Z was simply a magnificent aniimal. Imposing, charimastic, and superbly talented. Her running style also contributed to her lore. Sea the Stars, Zarvarka, and Frankel also are/were all super stars to the highest order. Just me but personally I frankly avoid comparisons because they give me headaches and no answers. Comparing turf and dirt is like apples and oranges. I must say I do enjoy the respectful arguments other form bloggers bring though. I wish American owners would take their horses overseas more regularly. Ward and Pletcher have tried it. Ward mostly in sprints. Results have been mixed but mostly negative. I suspect we are not good enough to ship, acclimate, run without medication, and beat the best on unforgiving ground. I would love to see an American complete in the Arc but what American could stay 12F on that ground against the world's best. Maybe someday the U.S. breeding focus will change a bit and we will breed some top quality grass stayers. I can dream can't I.
Mike A More than 1 year ago
Annie.......sweet, lovely Annie......... Baffert would win every race if they ran at 6:00 AM, or anytime before the renovation break.....he has 10 entered.....hmmmm. I've been watching him, you see one of my handicapping angles, (though I hate the word angle in this sense) is to watch how a trainer enters his horses during the year, in relation to the BC. It tells me if a horse is pointed here all along or if it's a "lets take a shot". As an example it was obvious Fawkes had the BC in mind when he kept BD out all year then planned two races going in. The rule here and it was sound judgement, that no matter what anyone did during the year, BD won the year before......he wins again he's sprinter of the year. Of course he could have gotten jipped if there was a killer sprinter during the year that didn't run in the BC, but was so dominant he got the award.....sort of what happened to Midnite Lute. The consolation prize? a 2 million purse....keep the award. These are the things most folks don't think about......some horses are that good, they are pointing to one race. With the money and the title on the line it's easy to see why. Oh it seems they are doing the same thing with Shared Account......now there's a horse some would never pick......Most will look at her and say "2 races, both losses, why are they bothering"!! Oh yea of little faith......The PP's do not tell the whole story unless you know what to look for.......... You almost ask who I like in the Classic like a challenge.....one would think I never post who I like....you mistake me for someone else I fear..... Hmmm the Classic....I'm not ready to say yet......perhaps Friday. This is what I can say so far. It isn't Flat Out, Drosselmeyer, So You Think (yes I decided he has to beat me), Prayer For Relief, Stay Thirsty, Rattlesnake Bridge or Ice Box......more than half the field so far.......I do believe going in that Harve DE Grace......oh and before I go further.....HEY FOLKS..I'VE BEEN AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO KNOW ABOUT THE OLD RACETRACK HARVE DE GRACE.......MY UNCLE SPOKE OF IT OFTEN, IT'S PRONOUNCED HARVE DE GRAR....NOT "HAVE A DE GRACE"....THE HORSE IS PRONOUNCED THE SAME WAY......Ok back to Harve De GRAR..........French you know? I think she's the best going in. If you put a gun to my head and said pick 1-2 I'd say her. The Filly...that's right. Even though I know it's really not her best distance......but then again, who in this race (other than the aforementioned So You Think) can say 1 1/4m is their optimal distance?......Hmm, Ruler On Ice maybe? No.....I have till Friday, Saturday Morning....it's too early to pick, PP's and all (post positions that is) I haven't gone through a month of facts, figures, trainers and horses to throw it out there now, When I put it out there it will be definitive, not some good things, some bad things, just enough things that should one of them win I can say "told you so".......I take my time, it's one of the things the ladies always liked about me, I say liked because only one does now, OK more later.....the Swami has to lay waste to the Persian Empire.........Mike A
SR Vegas More than 1 year ago
Dick W Happy Birthday! Mike A Will the Swami be making all his Breeders' Cup selections the same way? oohhhh, ahhhh :) Blackseabass ..Sorry about your Trojans, but on a good note my Bruins won...lol! 'tstrep and'