10/19/2011 1:15PM

HG 255 - Belmont Slop

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Wednesday's HandiGambling 255 exercise is the eighth race at Belmont, a $35,000 "beaten" claimer at six furlongs.

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."

Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.

Please post your plays and analysis to the blog.

Please separate the play from the analysis and label the play "HG" with the program numbers instead of the names of the horses.

Past performances are available at the previous blog post.

In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference.

One entry per person please.

I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.

I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.

***

As of this writing, the track condition is SLOPPY.

Let's scratch #8 RUNNING TAP and #9 AWESOME ARCENO.

#1 EXPECTING CASH is one lb. overweight

#5 ORSONIAN removes one aluminum pad.

#6 BLACK N BEAUTY will be ridden by Joe Bravo

***

#7 DAVID THE GREAT was a bit eager in his first start with blinkers while racing down on the rail in his initial appearance for trainer David Jacobson.  The gelding altered course three wide on the far turn, but failed to muster a late rally in that $50,000 starter allowance at Belmont on September 25.  The "good" main track at Belmont seemed to favor speed that afternoon, however, and David the Great chased the 1-2 finishers all the way around the track (Lubango, the winner, was a 15-1 rank outsider in the field of six).  Although that race has yet to produce a next-out winner, Lubango returned to finish second in an entry-level allowance race with an 85 Beyer while fifth-finisher Game Token came back to place third in a statebred 'n2x' optional claimer with an 88 Beyer. A two-time winner with proven wet track experience, David the Great projects for a good stalking trip while racing on the outside and in the clear. 

#5 ORSONIAN's career has been plagued by foot problems and he raced with aluminum pads in his last two races.  It's a good sign that the pad comes off this afternoon and that Orsonian wheels back on only 10 days rest.  He should also appreciate dropping out of the entry-level allowance ranks.  Orsonian has good tactical speed and may have a pair of nice pace targets to his inside.  He's run well on wet tracks in the past, but seems to have a small case of second-itis (7-1-4-0 lifetime record).  Also, I thought he ran on the best part of an outside-friendly track on October 9.

#2 WAR COLONY has been limited to only four career starts, but the son of Not For Love has potent early speed and could be the main pacemaker under Javier Castellano.  He may have been aided slightly by a speed-favoring track when a pace-pressing winner of a $20,000 maiden claimer at Saratoga two back and he failed to finish with David the Great in his initial start against winners.  Trainer Carl Domino has been sending out live horses at this meet, but War Colony shows lots of gaps in his work tab.  Know him early.

#6 BLACK N BEAUTY ran well to finish second in the six-furlong Woodstock Stakes over polytrack on April 16, but hasn't to run back to those efforts in subsequent outings, failing to gain ground from the stretch call to the wire in any of his last four races.  There are some angles as he drops to his lowest level for the third start of the form cycle, but he couldn't parlay a pace-pressing trip into a top-three placing over a speed-friendly surface on September 23.

#1 EXPECTING CASH would likely benefit from a fast pace up front as he drops in class for the third start following a layoff line.  He enjoyed a perfect inside trip in winning for $50,000 two back at Saratoga, but was compromised by a speed-favoring track when the beaten favorite at Belmont on September 23. The horse that finished directly in front of Expecting Cash on September 23, Truelee Scrappin, returned to finish third in an entry-level allowance on October 2 with an 87 Beyer.  Most recently, Truelee Scrappin passed that condition with a 105 Beyer.  Expecting Cash has won on wet going and should be charging hard in the stretch.

#3 ULTIMO PRINCIPE may be the one to keep War Colony honest on the early lead.  He took advantage of an inside, speed-favoring track when winning a $25,000 'beaten' claimer on July 29, but hasn't shown much stretch stamina since being claimed by Bruce Brown.  He finished ahead of next-out winner Indianski in his most recent start at Parx Racing (that one returned to take a $15,000 'n1y' claimer at Penn National with a 79 Beyer. 

#4 SENSATIONAL SLAM was a three-time stakes-winner when trained by Todd Pletcher, but he tired terribly in his first try for Charlton Baker on September 23.  That was his first race over a wet track and it's possible that he hated the going.  If that's the case, then he's in big trouble this afternoon.  The "good" Sensational Slam has run races that compete with these, however, and he may drift in the wagering based on that one bad race.

Here's how I'll HandiGamble.

$100 Win - David the Great (#7)

Best of luck to all.

Dick W More than 1 year ago
Alan Congratulations...very impressive !!! Dick W
blackstone More than 1 year ago
TBTA The document is on its way. You'll have it, of course, before you see this post. It's a good one. bsb You have that exactly right (re the sharks), as you well know. I'll stay with it until, and unless, it stops working. The project is over one hundred races old, and not only showing a profit, but it's getting better as I boot the lunkheads out. Thank you for the comment. meathead01 Thank you for the shout out. As I said earlier, kind of a bizarre gift (the $37 payoff), but I'm not throwing it back (bsb-I should have sent that line to you). Keith L I think you have the right attitude about the whole process. I'm afraid I am not as calm about things as you are, but I hope to get there once I am no longer a youngster.
Yogi More than 1 year ago
YAY! They got the blog drop down menu working again. For anyone who wants to sort through them, the all possible entry free pp's are available.
Curt V. More than 1 year ago
Annie, I'll give you that bottle of wine, if you give me Valediction{the 09' foal of Vindication} in the up & coming, long awaited MKB draw......Bring on the Dirt tracks...& I'll throw in a wine dispenser........I'd give you some DRF PP's, buttZ it seems Keith L. took care of that.......$16 HG ? Ugh......
Curt V. More than 1 year ago
Keith L., Thanx for the info on Grigio. I don't like him a bit for next yrs. TC races.{He's 3 yrs. old, not 2}. LoL.. Forgive me Slewster anyway !! So, Annie will have to get her vino from someone else... He took too, too many races to break his maiden, & doesn't run a lick on Dirt. Tapizar{another Slewster} is out of Tapit. I don't put much faith in a Tapit going past 9F's. Up to fine, past that, not fine. Me thinkem' Tapizar folds w/pressure. Not his fault, buttZ, he doesn't seem to have the distance capabilities. I also am now tempering my enthusiasm w/all the broken track records of late @Keeneland. I know Applauding is a 2yr. old filly Slewster & all & 1:07+ is totally awesome for anybody of any age, let alone a 2 yr. old little girl, buttZ I'm taking a wait & see attitude to see what these horses do outside of Keeneland next out. Sounds to me like "Too many fish in the Sea..">Who sung that C.......? Now onto Uncle MoMo, I think people ought to stop worrying about MoMo's sire Indian Charlie. Look at the dam side, & you'll see all kinds of distance influences. He has a mother & a father you know. Better one should decide if Uncle MoMo was injured and/or sick, and/or vice/versa. Either way, if he's neither one of them NOW, there's gonna be a whole lot of catching needed to catch the Uncle. They all can run 10F's. It's only a matter of who can run it faster. His 118 says nobody is in Smelling Range. & I'll leave you w/the words of the great Allen Jerkens..... "I can train any horse, to get the 1 1/4 one time...."...>> This his his one time....Uncle Mo is in a league that the others haven't seen yet........I see a race w/Uncle Mo hitting the stretch like all his other races w/the lead opening up, & quite frankly, I don't see him stopping any time soon........ Show him your ass Mo.............
meathead01 More than 1 year ago
curt v in a way I hope you are right about mo but I will bet against him in the exactas and put him in the tris. I think with UM out of the exacta it will pay huge. good luck to you and UM MH01
SR Vegas More than 1 year ago
Annie ...in part "ALAN!!!!! You made it AGAIN? Wow, you definitely are Formblog's NHC Champion. No one else on here has that distinction. Congratulations!" --------------------------------- Kudos indeed for Alan ( as being a FormBlogger Four Bagger Qualifier) but also to "Lil Chok" who has made it three times, and most recently was in the money this last 2011 NHC tournament. Add in 'BigEasyBigChok' as a wonderful chaparone, whenever they come to town, it's all good :) Michael and Ben , I hope to see you here in January. BTW, is GoodifitGoes having a bit of a rest? Just waiting for his next start.
Jonah More than 1 year ago
Correction to my last post: there's a missing comma. My parents weren't actually married by the drunkard. :) Jonah
Jonah More than 1 year ago
Alan, I know you're cheating. It's the computer, I know. You wrote a program that picks the right horses, and sends them little shocks that make them run faster so you can keep getting into this big contest. I know you won't be able to admit it, though, so I'll just play along: ALAN! ALAN! ALAN! Really, it's just impressive and inspiring, especially the way you did it, two wins and two places laying waste to all but one. Blackstone may think it'd be fun to go up against you in the NHC, and I thought he was nuts, but then I thought it could be fun if we could sit next to you. We might even land on some of the same horses. A new home, too. Good times. Keith L, The system you described, as I'm sure you know, makes use of the same idea as the Kelly Criterion, that is, that bet size is relative to the bankroll at a given time (though Kelly argues the bet should vary with the difference between perceived probability and odds (percent overlay), rather than be a flat percentage), which is the opposite of Martingale, doubling after losses, or any form of risking more as the bankroll dwindles. This idea also addresses the concept of using winnings to "play with house money," which isn't ever true in a literal sense, but from the perspective of a daily bankroll, winnings justify larger bets. That, and a little help, is how I turned $6 into over $3k earlier in the year. It can be argued that dividing a bankroll by a day is arbitrary, that a bankroll is a lifelong figure, and that a good bet at the end of a winning or losing day is no different than the same bet at the beginning of a new day, but having a daily budget and goal makes sense to me, since our lives are organized into days. VQ, I thought that was for "very qute." Underfish Blackseabass, Your advice is prudent. Do I get unstuck the same way I got stuck will definitely stick, I like it. Good coachin'. Your post made me think of a yogic platitude, "You are both this, and that," and a statement of F. Scott Fitzgerald's: "The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function." When I went to find that one, I found a few more attributed to him I thought we might find entertaining: Action is character. --- Either you think, or else others have to think for you and take power from you, pervert and discipline your natural tastes, civilize and sterilize you. --- Family quarrels are bitter things. They don't go according to any rules. They're not like aches or wounds, they're more like splits in the skin that won't heal because there's not enough material. --- Genius goes around the world in its youth incessantly apologizing for having large feet. What wonder that later in life it should be inclined to raise those feet too swiftly to fools and bores. --- Genius is the ability to put into effect what is on your mind. --- When people are taken out of their depths they lose their heads, no matter how charming a bluff they may put up. --- It's not a slam at you when people are rude, it's a slam at the people they've met before. --- Nothing is as obnoxious as other people's luck. --- The victor belongs to the spoils. ------------- Phrases like these remind me of one I grew up with, told to my parents soon after they were married by a drunkard in a park in the Village, a real Fitzgerald character who slurred, "You live and you learn, and you die a fool." Jonah CAPTCHA: "irecoll Seven." Yeah, I seem to recall that, too. Go seven!
Molesap More than 1 year ago
Musings on Uncle Mo Mike A brought up a good point regarding the similarities between Uncle Mo and Conquistador Cielo. I hate to disagree, but Uncle Mo reminds me much more of Quality Road - brilliant, fast but a tad distance challenged. Based off that huge 118 Beyer which he earned by breeezing on an easy lead in short field on a sealed, muddy track, he will likely go off as the favorite never having won beyond 1 1/16 miles. Ghostzapper had not raced at more than 1 1/8 miles going into the BC Classic and in fact, had only two route races under his belt prior to that start. Uncle Mo could be that special, but that was the same thing I thought about Quality Road last year. As Mike A stated, it's early yet, but I tend to fall on the other side - I'm no lining up to beat him, but I'm more than skeptical regarding his ability to get the distance likening him more Quality Road at this point rather than Ghostzapper.
blackstone More than 1 year ago
Debut Horse Project Passes the Test I mentioned on Friday that this weekend would be a good test for the Debut Horse project. Six starters-no Form or handicapping-just press the Submit Button on the screen. Things started slowly as the first two on Saturday ran out, then the first two on Sunday had only a third between them(although Molesap had a $46 winner on Saturday on a trainer I don't use-way to go, my man!). Things changed. Sadler brought home Almost a Lady in the 9th at SA at 9-5. Then Sherman brought home Victoriously Jewel at GGF. She romped and paid----$37! How could this happen? Darned if I know. Sherman's debut horses always go off at 3-1 or 7-2. Maybe it was because he used a little known Jock-Jesus Velazquez. The thing about Velazquez, though, is that he brought home at least two, and it might have been three, high-priced debut winners for Miyadi earlier this year. So the kid can ride some. So who knows? But the Project just keeps rolling along. Amazing stuff, at least to me. This Thursday Molesap and I get our first crack at a Brian House debut horse-Geaux Cat Geaux. I am hoping that House becomes a, uh, household name on this Blog over the next few months.
meathead01 More than 1 year ago
blackstone $37 and change and no handicapping? thats knowing your debut trainers for sure nice hit my man MH01
Annie More than 1 year ago
ALAN!!!!! You made it AGAIN? Wow, you definitely are Formblog's NHC Champion. No one else on here has that distinction. Congratulations! I'm sure Chalky will be happy to see you. As long as you don't try to rein her in too much. :) Annie
Annie More than 1 year ago
Of course MO is good. He's an MKB. In fact, he was the very first horse selected for the MKB last December. :) Annie