06/29/2011 4:00PM

HG 240 (Indiana Downs Stake)

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Tonight's HandiGambling 240 exercise is the sixth race from Indiana Downs, The Girls, Incorporated, of Shelbyville, Shelby County Stakes for fillies and mares at one mile on the grass. 
 
Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."
 
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.
 
Please post your plays and analysis to the blog.
 
Please separate the play from the analysis and label the play "HG" with the program numbers instead of the names of the horses. 
 
Past performances are available at the previous blog post.
 
In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference.
 
One entry per person please.
 
I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.
 
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.

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The turf course is listed as FIRM with the portable rail out at 24 feet.  Let's scratch #3 LADY'S LAUGHTER, #6 ROMIN ROBIN, #9 SILENT CANDY, #10 TAPTAM and #11 LA GRAN BAILADORA.

I'm going to lean on two horses in the multi-race wagers. 

#5 KISS MINE is a notch below graded quality, but she makes hay in these listed events with stakes victories at Mountaineer (three times), Turfway and Ellis.  While she is quick from the gate, she may be even better when she has a target and she may find one in the form of #2 SHEER BEAUTY, the pacesetter in the Grade 3 Ouija Board Stakes on May 30.
Kiss Mine's most recent start, the Decoration Day Handicap at Mountaineer on May 30, was a quick victory.  It graded out two-fifths faster than the stake for older male turf milers a race before.  Kiss Mine tracked the pacesetters from the outside, geared up down the backstretch to take on the leader and held sway in the final furlong. 
She should be right there when the field swings into the stretch and could get the jump on the closers.

#1 CATEGORY SEVEN, a reformed $15,000 maiden claimer, has built quite the career for herself with earnings of almost $500,000 and a record of 17-11-4-0 at this distance.  She'll make her first start for high-percentage trainer Richard Kohnhorst and figures to save valuable ground from her inside post position.
She's faced some solid company in her last few races.  Three and four starts back, she finished second to Upperline, a Grade 3 winner that took the Trillium Stakes over the Woodbine polytrack last Saturday.  Two back, she was favored against males, but didn't run her best.  Last time out, Category Seven chased heavily-favored speedster Wasted Tears in the Grade 3 Ouija Board.  A four-time stakes-winner (once against the boys), Category Seven looms a dangerous late threat. 

As for the others:

After finishing third in the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks on dirt last year, #2 SHEER BEAUTY had surgery to remove an ankle chip and was on the shelf for almost 10 months.  It took her a couple of races to get back to her best form, but she went gate-to-wire two back at Lone Star before getting caught up in an early tussle with the aforementioned Wasted Tears in the Ouija Board.  Sheer Beauty won't have to worry about that foe tonight and she may be on the front end under Jon Court.  She's an improving filly, but the top choice may not let her steal away on a lonely lead.

#4 SNOW TOP MOUNTAIN looms the one to beat after finishing a close fourth in the Grade 3 Mint Julep Handicap at Churchill Downs 18 days ago.  Grade 1-placed in New York last year, Snow Top Mountain seeks her first stakes victory this evening and her recent numbers are very competitive.  She beat Persuading (next-out winner of 'n3x' optional claimer on dirt at Churchill with 85 Beyer) two starts back at Churchill, but her lead changes were a bit sloppy.  Snow Top Mountain is a dangerous adversary, but she owns more second-place finishes than wins and spots weight to most. Still, she should be charging in the lane.

#7 SENIGA loves this turf course with three wins from four races.  She rallied from off the pace to defeat War Tigress (returned to finish sixth, beaten three lengths by Kiss Mine at Mountaineer) in her local prep and has the tactical speed to find a nice spot in midpack.  While one should respect the horse for course angle, she'll need to improve a bit against this tougher competition. 

#8 INSTANT STYLE stretches out three furlongs following a fourth-place finish in an optional claiming dash at Arlington.  That race looks like a prep for this longer stakes opportunity and she is a two-time winner at one mile on grass.  Please note that her trainer, Frank Springer, used the sprint to route move (also in second off layoff) successfully with Instant Style when they won a maiden contest at Arlington on September 5, 2009.  Instant Style was no match for Category Seven two back and likely needs a career-best number to beat these.

#12 DISTORTED LOVE seeks her third straight, but those last two wins came in off the turf heats and she has never succeeded on the grass.  A late-runner with a solid closing kick, Distorted Love may be gathered back in the early portion of the race by Miguel Mena in the hope of rallying into a contested pace. 

Here's how I'll play HandiGambling:

$50 Exacta:  Kiss Mine - Category Seven (5-1)
$30 Exacta:  Kiss Mine - Sheer Beauty (5-2)
$20 Exacta:  Kiss Mine - Snow Top Mountain (5-4)

Best of luck to all

Dick W More than 1 year ago
Meathead01 Nice job on R8 at Belmont today. With the ML at 5 to 1, I thought she (Distorted Legacy) would probably go off at something slightly less than that and was both surprised and pleased that she returned $16.80 ! Hope you made some $$$ on her. Dick W
meathead01 More than 1 year ago
Dick W thank you dick I often wonder if anyone is reading my posts or just scrolling down like some suggest yes I did make some $$$$$ on the 8th and 9th races yesterday 8th exacta $93 and played the #1-5 to the #s 57 in the ninth for a nice hit also missed the 9th exacta though did not like #10 Saints Alive thought he was to short ok enough with the past lets look at Hollywood for today and a few at Belmont. good luck to you Dick today mh01
blackseabass More than 1 year ago
Its doin' it again . I can go anywhere on Drf EXCEPT to look at my PPs . This is getting to be ridiculous. When I want to see the pps I get a blank screen with
meathead01 More than 1 year ago
BSB same here Im trying to download Belmont PPs but get blank screen whats up drf? mh01
Penn National Rick More than 1 year ago
Race of the Day(at least on the East Coast). United Nations Handicap Monmouth Park Race 11. Starting from the Rail. #2. Bourbon Bay. Does well in Cali, but any race he has run outside of Cali has not faired well. Like Garcia can be a factor if he handles the course, but im a bit nervous of his record outside Cali. #3. Teaks North. Won the MonmouthG3 last time out. He was sitting behind Stormy and Serious and clobbered them. I think he will get the same setup here, but adding some distance here for the drive, but is 3 for 3 on this course. Horse for Course? #4. Eldaafer. The speed figs aren't there for this horse. He did win going away 2 out in Atlantic City, but that was a confidence building race and Brooklyn didn't fair to well. I see him fading away from the rest when coming down. #1 Pulsion. Looking 2 back he was the pace and went wire to wire in a OC race. Around the turn and half mile he may be running with his stablemate. Doubt he will factor in stretch. #5 Sleepless Knight. Could spring an upset here. Like Lezcano. He came wide down the stretch and appeared to be the only one gaining on Teaks North. You will get your odds on this one and Breen isn't too shabby these days. #6 Bold Hawk. Tough Call here. Race only 4 times since '07. Twice in '10 and Twice in '11. Seems like over his head in the Manhattan. Seems to be constantly on Yielding courses. Can be a factor if he repeats some of his '07 numbers. Flip a coin on this one. #7 Stacelita. Interesting Euro running in this event. Running back in short time after running 3rd in a group 3 in france. Bravo on board and his timeform ratings shows perhaps he can be a factor down the lane. #1A Belle Watling. Was the pace last out in Sheapshead Bay G2. He set slow fractions and fought to be a tough 4th by 2 1/2 lengths. #8 General Perfect. No thanks. #9. Chinchon. Last years winner of this event. Got the pace and closed from well off the pace and made a furious stretch drive to the wire. Gomez takes the call. The Picks: #9. Chinchon. follow it up with 3,5,7. Box it up. Longshot to hit the board: #6. Good Luck to all.
SR Vegas More than 1 year ago
knm ...LOL! Okay. But one never knows when PETA will show up!
Jonah More than 1 year ago
Laura, Thanks again for hosting the best chat room in North American racing. It's always a joy. Ron Zuercher, Thank you for another excellent post on betting value. I forgot to ask you about something you posted some time ago about calculating odds for second- and third-place. I hope you won't mind repeating how you do it. I was once told a way to estimate it by subtracting the odds of the hypothetical winner from the field, so that the odds of the other horses to "win" the remaining race are their odds to place behind that one, but if I remember right you prefer another method. Also, I'm curious if you ever play in handicapping tournaments. Good luck and good fun to all, Jonah
SR Vegas More than 1 year ago
knm ... What? looking a bit dumb founded... It was my first and only time there. The Calgary Stampede was a combination of excellent "big name" concert headliners at night, The Beer Garden ( my favorite mid day stop ) the kiosks, and exibitions, daily shows & carnival rides, and at night the Celebrations in the main arena. Ok, I did see a ChuckWagon qualifier one night, it was exciting...kinda like a Nascar race, but with lower horse powered wagons.. BUT they were one part of a show that over all was SPECTACULAR! PETA , what? I'm sure they have their reasons, but I didn't see them.
knm More than 1 year ago
SR Vegas, Hey, in case I forgot, that was a LOL remark! Dan wouldn't pass my opinion of PETA, I don't think. And I'm jealous, I've always wanted to go to the Calgary Stampede.
SR Vegas More than 1 year ago
VQ "the over/under on how many times " born in the USA" by bruce springsteen is heard across the airwaves of america this 4th of july weekend is 714." ME? ...I'll take the over. ---------------------------- How about the over/under for " God Bless the USA" by Lee Greenwood. Respectively I say 1900 ...and counting ------------------------- On that note, and in the spirit of this weekend ...here are some 4th of July 'name picks' . Sat - HollyWd #7 STARSPANGLED HEAT Sun -HollyWd #2 YANKEE DAN ....... HollyWd #8 CALIFORNIA FLAG Mon -HollyWd #7 WEEKEND PARTY Sat - Arlington #3 CAPTAIN AMERICAN Sun - Arlington #6 DOODLE DANDY Sat - Belmont #6 FLAG HANDLER ........Belmont #9 COOL BLUE RED HOT ...a MKB! Sat- Monmouth #7 CRIMSON GLORY Mon- Monmouth #1 SPANGLED STAR Mon - Calder #9 FORALLTHEGLORY ..add to the silly factor, look for jockeys who are wearing silks in Red, White or Blue, with Stripes , stars , or combinations. It worked very well $$ for me many years ago :) Good luck! ------------------------------------------------ side note: BigEasyBigChok & Lil Chock ...good luck with your GOODIFITGOES Sat at LA Downs. --------------------------------------------- Laura I had a great time at chat tonight, thank you for opening the chat room. Some nice handicapping going on, and a great way to connect with formblog friends. BTW, your site is looking ' marvelous', darling... :) tantilla ichkeyo'
Curt V. More than 1 year ago
Tencent, Imploring those who do not separate the bet from the analysis, is a waste of time. Unless there is a disclaimer which invalidates the offender, they won't do it. They aren't insulting you or us. The plain & simple of it is::::::::: THEY DON'T READ.............They're just flappin' their gums, so to speak........Invalidate one person, & you won't ever have that problem again.........
Virgin Queen More than 1 year ago
the over/under on how many times " born in the USA" by bruce springsteen is heard across the airwaves of america this 4th of july weekend is 714. BSB..if u don't know about gambler's book club google them and then have them send u a catalouge. they had some great stuff in the past. btw, that nut that paid $80 4 phils 'maxims" has a GREAT and KIND HEARTED SISTER who lets her no good unemployed brother free load off her. she should tell that lazy bum 2 get out and get a job peace VQ
SR Vegas More than 1 year ago
Dan I really enjoyed yours and Mikes video on the Hollywood Park races Saturday - The Shoemaker Mile, and the Triple Bend. You two really play well off each other. Good Luck! 'plex kedgent'