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HG 201 pp's, SoCal injuries, Auteuil, Top Kentucky Beyers
Let's get to your questions and comments.
Hi Dan I enjoy your blog very much. Would you please try to find the pps of grey papa who raced at longacres in 1970 and westbury road who raced at exhibition park in the 1960s.
Unfortunately, my past performance system only goes back so far. I've included what I have (two races for Grey Papa and none for Westbury Road) at the bottom ot this blog post.
Good AM Dan...sad movies..only a few more days left at The Spa.....Do you know why the Beyer par figures for each race are not consistenly available?
I'm guessing that there isn't enough data for certain race conditions for a true par to be calculated.
This is the first time that I've opted to take advantage of your gracious willingness to provide freebies versus spending the $5 to get the requested PPs...
Would you mind posting the past performances of the greatest racehorse of all time, Secretariat?
Perhaps there is another one around the corner...
The past performances for Secretariat are available at the bottom of this blog post.
Can you please post the number of 100+ Beyers, 110+ Beyers, and 120+ Beyers for Churchill, Ellis, Keeneland, and Turfway for the periods of 2003-2006 and 2007-present? I wonder if you could run Steve T.'s search criteria on the Kentucky circuit.
Thanks in advance
Churchill Main Track (2003-2006):
234 Beyers of 100 and over; 20 Beyers of 110 and over; 0 Beyers of 120 and over
Churchill Main Track (2007-2010):
93 Beyers of 100 and over; 10 Beyers of 110 and over; 0 Beyers of 120 and over
Ellis Main Track (2003-2006):
22 Beyers of 100 and over; 0 Beyers of 110 and over; 0 Beyers of 120 and over
Ellis Main Track (2007-2010):
2 Beyers of 100 and over; 0 Beyers of 110 and over; 0 Beyers of 120 and over
Keeneland Main Track (2003-2006):
123 Beyers of 100 and over; 27 Beyers of 110 and over; 1 Beyer of 120 and over
Keeneland Main Track (2007-2010):
35 Beyers of 100 and over; 0 Beyers of 110 and over; 0 Beyers of 120 and over
Just double-checking re the Sire Debut Report. If a Sire is not included in the report it means that it has had no debut winners for whatever year I'm looking at. Correct? Thank you again.
Hi Dan..Love all your good insight for weekend feature racing...Wondered if you had any idea of what ever happened to a nice graded stakes horse called "Dynever" he bucked heades with some good ones ,including in Dubai..Havn'y heard a word about him ever...Iam assuming he was probably a gelding..Help me out !!!!! What the heck ever happened to him ?
Dynever was purchased privately and sent to the Middle East for racing. His lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post. He stands stud in Saudi Arabia
Dan and all
I have posed this before, but I thought I might give it one more whack.
Anybody out there know anything about steeplechase racing in France? I am going to Paris, and to the Auteuil meet on September 25. Any guidance would be gleefully accepted. Have fun in Chicago.
From Alan Shuback's "Global Racing," (a book I whole-heartedly endorse):
"Auteuil is not only France's major jumps course, it is also one of the most beautiful racecourses in the world. As a city course that abuts the cosmopolitan Parisian neighborhoods of Auteuil and Passy, it provides nearby residents the luxury of walking to the track for the high-class jump racing that takes place there.
Opened in 1873, Auteuil is the site of France's two championship jump races, the 3 5/8 miles Grand Steeple-Chase de Paris, run on the last Sunday in May, and the 3 3/16 miles Grande Course de Haies d'Auteuil (French Champion Hurdle), un on the fourth Sunday in June...)"
"Auteuil Racecourse is neat as a pin, its hedges and jumps always kept in a pristine state. And it is those jumps that set teh track apart from its British counterparts. Fences with names such as bullfinch, double barriere, oxer, rail-ditch et fence, and gros open-ditch need no translation. The different tests they provide the French jumper have let to an admission by many leading British trainers that French jumpers are the best-schooled in the world."
"With three large 1920s-era grandstands that were renovated in 1967, plus the exclusive president's stand, Auteuil still presents a Belle Epoque aura. The track holds 41 days of racing per year, 21 between late February and late June, 20 between early September and early December. An American racing fan in Paris could not enjoy himself more than by spending a day at Auteuil, preceded by lunch at Le Congres in the Porte d'Auteuil on the Boulevard Exelmans, one of the best brasseries in Paris..."
I have a question regarding Racing Post Ratings. I was handicapping the 7th race at Del Mar on August 8th - and I noticed two of the horses had faced each other in England on July 24 2009. In that race in England, Keen Bidder beat Couloursoftheglen by two lengths - but Keen Bidder received a rating of 65 while Coloursoftheglen got an 83. Is this simply a mistake? I know the ratings take other factors into account - but to rate the clear winner substantially lower than the loser seems ridiculous. What is the deal with these ratings?
The Racingpost ratings are theoretical handicaps. Those numbers are supposed to represent the weights carried in a theoretical race which would produce a dead heat. In the race in question, Coloursoftheglen carried 23 pounds MORE than Keen Bidder, who only beat him by 2 lengths. That is the reason the runner-up was rated 18 pounds higher. The handicapper who assigned those ratings decided that the 2 length margin equaled about 5 pounds. At even weights, I have to assume the handicapper felt as if Coloursoftheglen was 3-4 lengths better than Keen Bidder.
Any idea what is going on with Misremembered? I saw they worked him on August 6th and nothing since then.
Another I haven't seen anything on is Speighstown daughter Mona de Momma, the last I saw of her was at Churchill in the Humana,
From Steve Andersen's article posted on September 3:
There are no plans for Misremembered, who won the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap in March, his last start.
“He was training but he had a little setback,” Baffert said. “He’ll be all right. He needs a few weeks off. He had a foot issue.”
From Steve Andersen's article posted on July 17:
Mona de Momma out with injury
Mona de Momma, winner of the Grade 1 Humana Distaff at Churchill Downs on May 1, has been turned out with a cannon bone injury, trainer John Sadler said.
The injury may prevent Mona de Momma from making any further starts, depending on how she trains in late summer and early fall, when she is expected to return.
“She’s on the farm for a little while,” Sadler said.
Sadler would like to have Mona de Momma ready for the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint at Churchill Downs in November.
“A lot will do with how she’s training and how she looks,” he said.
Sadler described Mona de Momma’s chances of reaching the Breeders’ Cup as “borderline.”
Unfortunately, my Saratoga duties have kept me from updating the Disabled List. I'll be working on that for the next month or so before I link a current version to the blog. Until then, if you have a question concerning a certain horse, let me know and I'll do my best to find out any information.
First off, let me apologize to everyone for not having any results for HG 200. I'm afraid I've got too much stuff on my plate and I just have not been able to get back here. This is my first return to the blog since last Friday. I got an e-mail from Dan that ALAN won for last week and i'll go with that.
I'd like to see somebody else take up the HG spreadsheet. My participation is going to be very limited for the forseeable future and i will not be able to give it the attention it deserves. If anybody would like to take up the mantle just drop an e-mail to Dan and he can pass it on to me.
again I'm sorry, but i just do not have the time to do this anymore. I'll try and keep playing HG but there are too many other things in my life that take precedent.
I'd like to thank cayman01 for his amazing job in calculating our HandiGambling scores since the beginning of the contest. He's done yeoman's work and deserves a break. I'd also like to thank so many of you for volunteering their services to take up the scorekeeping duties. I put all of your names in a hat and the "lucky" winner is tencentcielo. I've notified tencentcielo and asked him to get in touch with cayman to discuss the transition.
Congrats to Alan for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling exercise. This week's HandiGambling will be the Del Mar Futurity on Wednesday afternoon.
PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.
Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan." Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified. Please post your plays and analysis to the blog. In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per person please. I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
Best of luck to all.
Back tomorrow with the HG analysis and the top Beyers from last week's races.
Mike A, You're no dummy! You probably had reams of notes on P. Johnson and knew exactly what that wiley fox was doing! C, How did you pick Volponi? :) Suzanne, Presious Passion was back on today's worktab at Monmouth. Five furlongs in 1:04, breezing.
Blackstone We won't be getting any 20 to 1 on Bonifacio today. That is a tough group. I may not bet the race as I think any one of the 6 could take it. I might try an exacta box with Bonifacio and Fund Raiser ? In the 3rd, I like Call Me Honcho with Rosario up. Think he might like the distance. Good luck to you. Dick W
are california horses that bad imagine the first 8 monthes of the year and less than 10 percent of the top numbers were accomplished in california, imagine a 106 for a 1 minute 50 second mile and an eighth big deal he would have only lost by 20 lengths to secretariats woodward not bad, come now he obviously can't figure synthetics out and after being blown out of calif, years ago he has a problem with racing here, one last question should zenyatta even show up to race these superstars in november she can't seem to get out of the 90's. by the way can someone find a comefrombehinder like Z who ever won 4 races in a row in california
HG 201 $50 tri 7/8/6,10
VERY interesting DMR card today as there will be multiple vulnerable heavy favorites today. Who? Mother Ruth, Dancing in Silks, Always a Princess, and J P's Gusto. Mother Ruth fit's the condition to a T but her surface is dirt and she won't get the soft lead here she had in her SA win. The higher priced, nicely drawn Baffert looks good to me. Dancing in Silks won last year's BC sprint, he loves this surface, and he's been working great but this isn't his goal. Truest Legend has changed barns, his works have taken a quantum leap since his comeback, and he gets Patrick. He opened up very soft on the board last out and ran like it, lugging out badly on the backstretch and fading at the top of the stretch. Koriner could've put him in a much softer spot two days ago (NW2) but the fact he opts to knock heads with the reigning BC champ with his talented but raw colt is a very confident sign. Always a Princess was favored against Blind Luck in last years Oak Leaf and will be odds on today. She did rally impressively on this track to break her maiden and her works are good. But she's coming off a ten month layoff, has to prove she has progressed, and Baffert said he was "giving her a race". Mitchell has two in here moving up in class, including a Monmouth claim who already has passed this condition. J P's Gusto is the deserving favorite but has had two perfect trips in row and it's unlikely that will happen today. Patrick controlled a soft pace from the rail last out and in the Hollywood Juvy Talamo sat 2nd in a comfy 23 flat ignoring a 25/1 speedball. Western Mood was beaten both times in bad setups for him but today should be different. Winter Camp with Bejarano will be coming as well. * The last two days have been unseasonably cool and overcast here in southern California and there was a light rain when I woke up. Why is this noteworthy? Without sunlight the polytrack retains moisture, stays compacted, and should favor speed, that is if they don't do extra maintenance. Something to consider. * TBTA- Neither one was me. The guy I was referring to was in the tank top. I have to go now but I'll explain later.
HG201 I'm not sure that anyone can run down J.P.'s GUSTO here. But, we're playing with fake money, so I'll venture a guess that since Hollendorfer is bringing a pair to tackle this race, he has the confidence that one of them will do it. I'll weight the play towards INDIAN WINTER over WESTERN MOOD. I have a hunch the extra panel will set up better for him. Bet: $70 exacta 8-4 $30 exacta 7-4
HandyG 121 The Del Mar Futurity is always a challenging race. I will play the chalk #4 J P Gusto on top. His towers above the field with his 92 Beyer. He runs forwardly so hopefully he avoids trouble. He is not a need to lead type and I can see him going off at 9/5 instead of the ML of 5/2 #8 Indian Warrior ran very well in his debut. Hollendorfer gives his money rider, Bejarano, a leg up. #2 Riveting Reason gets a significant jockey switch from Quinonez to Solis. Trainer Cho has lots of plus ROI figs with 2YOs, sprinters and over synth #6 Major Art is a Euro that could move up as he get lasix. Also note that he showed a preference to displaying his speed in Britain and France. Seems to run like a precocious American juvenile. Hard to make a big wad of cash when the favorite wins. I will divide my $100 stake into four trifecta tickets and hope for the #2 to be on a winning stub since he is 12/1. $25 Trifectas 4/ 8/ 2,6 4/ 2,6/ 8
Steve T, Of course, Dan knows more about MISREMEMBERED than I do. I didn't know about any foot issue. Oh well, that doesn't sound good for my contest stable. :( ................................................................................................................................................ Alan, CONGRATULATIONS on winning the HG. Poor JP. Everyone will be gunning for him. Annie
Tencentcielo Congratulations, (I think) on being plucked from Dan's hat. You have some mighty big shoes to fill but I have no doubt you will do a spectacular job. Although "Da Man" will always be CayMAN to me, I believe you are a "Gem of a Man" therefore I will consider you ............."Dime(MANd).
Hoping I can fire fresh off the layoff, as I've been seriously "off form" with my handigambling plays. $10 ex box 6-8-10 $10 ex 10 - 7,8 $10 ex 7,8 - 10 Hoping a battle on the front end helps cook JP's Gusto. Jeff Bonde must be high on Road Ready to debut him in a stake (that he won as the favorite), and that's good enough for me. Keying that one with the english import and Hollendorfer's runners who look to improve with the distance. Good luck all !!!