07/28/2010 11:53AM

HG 196 (Lake George)


 Today's HandiGambling 196 exercise is the eighth race from Saratoga, the Grade 2 Lake George Stakes for three-year-old fillies at 1 1/16 miles on the inner turf course.

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."   Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.  Please post your plays and analysis to the blog.  Past performances are available on the previous blog entry.  In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference.  One entry per person please.  I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.

I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place.  The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are.  I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.

Let's scratch the also-eligibles (#13 AMBITONESS, #14 KITTYLICIOUS, #15 QUEEN HAZEL). 

The inner turf course is listed as FIRM with the rail out at 9 feet.

I'm going to go three deep in my multi-race wagers.

#4 NEON LIGHT won a productive Group 3 race in Germany two starts back (the runner-up, third-, and ninth-place finishers would go on to win listed races while the fourth-, and sixth-place finishers earned Group 3 success in 2010).  
Neon Light finished third in her only start this year (German 1000 Guineas on May 1).  You can watch the race by clicking on the link below. 


She goes out for Andreas Wohler, a trainer that sent out Lauro to a couple of productive seasons in North America in 2008-2009.  It looks like Neon Light has some tactical speed and she may work out a good trip behind what projects to be a solid pace.

I'm a big fan of #12 BAY TO BAY, but she drew another tough outside post position for trainer Brian Lynch.  Last time, she drew the far outside in the Grade 3 Boiling Springs Handicap and was hindered by a lack of pace up front.  She still rallied nicely to finish second and may be the most explosive horse in the race.  She should get faster fractions to rally into this afternoon, but Robby Albarado must work out a good trip from the widest stall. 

#8 STRIKE IT RICH wired the Boiling Springs under a heady ride by Garrett Gomez.  The Unbridled's Song filly made an unchallenged lead, backed down the fractions just a bit, then accelerated through a third quarter in 23 3/5 to break the hearts of the chasers.  She had enough left to hold off Bay to Bay in the stretch and has really come to hand during this form cycle for Christophe Clement.  She has won from off the pace in the past and may sit just off #7 GO ASK ALEX in the opening portion of the Lake George. 

As for the rest:

#1 HOUSE OF GRACE was the beaten favorite when trailing a three-horse field throughout on July 1 at Belmont, but that was against older horses and it was her first race since the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Filly Turf.  That start should have her legged up nicely for the second try of the form cycle and she should save valuable ground going into the first turn under the crafty Ramon Dominguez.  House of Grace shows a pair of five-furlong breezes leading up to this race and can't be counted out for Team Godolphin. 

#2 CRESCENDA, a former maiden claimer, has done nothing wrong in her short career for trainer Michael McDonald.  She finished a rallying second in the Grade 2 Sands Point at Belmont behind a sharp runner in Check the Label (that one took her third straight in the Virginia Oaks on July 17 with an 89 Beyer) and she may work out a nice inside-out journey under Cornelio Velasquez. 

#3 KHANCORD KID finished behind Crescenda in the Sands Point after a poor break.  She has good early speed and should be among the leaders as the field makes their way into the backstretch.  She has won from off the pace in the past so it will be interesting to see how Rajiv Maragh wants to play it.

#5 PERFECT SHIRL, a nicely-bred bay, has won her last two at Woodbine for the excellent horseman, Roger Attfield.  A versatile sort, Perfect Shirl earned a competitive Beyer Speed Figure two starts back but gets a class test today.

#6 NO EXPLAINING also ships down from Canada for Attfield.  She's won three of her last four races and was flattered when the runner-up from the July 10 race returned to win an entry-level allowance race on grass with an 80 Beyer.  Note that she has yet to race around two turns.

#7 GO ASK ALEX set a new course record in winning the Indiana Distaff three back, but she's faltered in her last two tries and may face heavy pace pressure in this spot.  She's won at this distance, but that was when on a lonely lead against maidens. 

#9 DYNAZAPER can be a bit of a handful as she flashed her tail noticeably while switching leads several times during the stretch run of the Edgewood two back at Churchill Downs.  It looked like she was on her way to a win in the Grade 3 Regret last time out only to be swallowed up by closers in the final quarter-mile.  Dynazaper should offer value for a dangerous trainer-jockey combination, but must be on her best behavior in order to upset these.

#10 EXCLUSIVE LOVE is a bit light on speed figures, but it's quite possible that we have yet to see the best from this lightly-raced filly.  She won an entry-level allowance race at Woodbine in her turf debut, and was flattered when three of the beaten rivals returned to win. 

#11 CAMINADOR ran down Dynazaper and company at big odds in the Regret and picks up the hot-riding Javier Castellano for the always-dangerous Todd Pletcher barn.  She has a big kick and should get a good pace to attack, but one must note that her winning races have come when there is some give to the ground.

Tough race and a good one for HG purposes.

I'll play it this way.

$100 Win - Neon Light (4)

Best of luck to all.

Here are the top 25 Winning Beyer Speed Figures from last week's racing action: 

Here are the lifetime past performances for the top Beyer performer:

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Mr. B-52 More than 1 year ago
Curt A Vassallo: Yeah, it can take quite a few tries with reCAPTCHA. I just got a good one, "the forms." I work for a company that had a big problem with form spam on our sales leads form. We didn't want to create any barriers with anything like reCAPTCHA but it was getting tiresome sifting through all the garbage submissions. We solved probably 99% of the form spam by creating a script that generates a submit button rather than having it coded as a part of the form. But DRF appears to be using a CMS for this site so they may not be able to do what we did. If they have a choice between reCAPTCHA and the math question though I'd say go with the math question. KYL Syndicate: I didn't understand all the space being consumed by the "Play the Races" section either. It seems designed more like a wagering site, for impulse wagering ... player logs in and sees a race going off in 2 minutes and then fires in a few bucks. I was wondering where the profit motive was for DRF as this is not linked to a wagering site. Then I read the "Welcome to the new DRF.com" page and found the paragraph below. If you're logged in and have a PP subscription and curiosity gets the better of you and you click the "Get PPs" button for one of the races, your account will be debited for that card. And these buttons are everywhere on the site now. I have a hunch they're going to be issuing a lot of credits for single cards because how many people are going to read that welcome page in its entirety? Suggestion to DRF: Change that button from "Get PPs" to "Buy PPs" and post an explanation in the same space. ***From Welcome to the new DRF.com*** You’ll notice these “Get PPs” quick links throughout the site (in news articles, blog posts, etc), and here’s how they work: If you are logged into DRF.com and have a current PP subscription, you will immediately be brought to the past performances of the race you’re looking at. Not just the raceday – the race. If you’re reading a Brad Free preview of the 8th race from Del Mar, clicking “Get PPs” will immediately open up those past performances and debit your account.
TurfRuler More than 1 year ago
Dan: Thanks for keeping the Top Winning Beyers as a document in your blog. What happened to the Injured List and will it be available in the future?
chicago gerry More than 1 year ago
10:05 AM AP Race 7 Mr. Alanzo M-L 12-1 Saratoga Phola Stienbeck Sunday Monmouth Ice Box
Calvin L. Carter More than 1 year ago
Dan, Looks like some progress is being made with the new website. I can actually see some comments and they previously were not appearing. Alan, Thanks for the link to the old page - I didn't know it was still up and running.
Bochalls More than 1 year ago
Nothing new here, just searching for someone at DRF to defend the timing of this website overhaul. Yet to find anyone who can defend the decision to re-arrange everything during Sar and Dmr. Sorry, but to me this is indicative of a higher stupidity that most of us can only dream of attaining. Just another horseracing entity with absolutely no clue of how to treat its customers. I have cancelled my DRF subscription and BRIS is my new home...they have free pps. Why would anyone pay for DRF, especially when you cant get them for a few days during a big time meet like the Spa because of, well, you know.... PS-the stadium construction was done PRIOR to the World Cup, not during it.
blackseabass More than 1 year ago
Dan , they have an add for twinspires over your name . That add should be over Crist's face. The old way at least looked something like the form. Looks like the same old story "New and Improved" means shoddy and of lesser quality. I flipped over the new drf site and sure enough there it was "MADE IN CHINA".
Curt A Vassallo More than 1 year ago
Van Savant, I'm here & been here, even if U can call it "Here". I called DRF, & they were as clueless as a blind squirrel. It seems trying to negotiate these sites: I may have to get hit in the head afterall w/a baseball bat, in order to know that it hurts..Even the chief honcho e-mailed me & told me didn't I read, it was posted yesterday..That was like "Duh ? No...Not exactly..Where may this be I might ask ?.......... Hehn ?..." Now I know how Helen Keller felt, U know, after they re-arranged her furniture ? Yeah ! & that Captcha ? I could view everyone of those 2 words & still can't comprehend any of those masterpiece hieroglyphic dead-sea scrolled pre-nursery school combos........ Does anybody want to employ about 9 {10 year old} nephews ? They'd have this site up in no time..........LMAO....They work cheap too......when & if they want......
Anonymous More than 1 year ago
Commenting not working...hard to read anything on my blackberry. Was during the Del Mar and Saratoga meets the best time to do this? Hoping it all gets sorted out.
Van Savant More than 1 year ago
I see no comments from either curt a vasallo or blackseabass...and that tells me that neither of them has figured out the answer to the question (3+1=4). I love math problems. p.s. How does CAPTCHA "know" what you are going to submit? I mean, the challenge words for this post are "ignorant" and "Jared". I can't help wonder who is it that can't learn, and who is it that used to be fat? I dunno. Curt v. seabass. A battle for the ages I suppose...
TejanoRun More than 1 year ago
Ignorant vs. Jared LMAO! Just trying the "reply" here to see whether it goes onto the general blog or is a subset of what is now your thread. This could be cumbersome. Free Equibase contest for Eddie Haskell day. See you there VS.
Van Savant More than 1 year ago
Just kidding you guys (curt and blackseabass). Me luvs ya'll, and I was just trying to see if anything would be posted... Good luck to all...