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HG 193, Beyers
Today's HandiGambling 193 exercise is the seventh race from Indiana Downs, the Governor's Stakes for three-year-olds bred in Indiana at one mile on the turf.
Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan." Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified. Please post your plays and analysis to the blog. Past performances are available on the previous blog entry. In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per person please. I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
As of this writing, there are no changes and the turf course is listed as FIRM.
There isn't much turf form on display in this race so I'll take a stab with a pedigree play at big odds.
#4 GUNNER is by Mingun, an A.P. Indy half-brother to the good grass sire Kingmambo (Mingun and Kingmambo's dam is the great grass mare Miesque). Mingun is 3-17 (18%) with first-time turf performers.
The unplaced dam (0-3) went 0-1 on turf and has foaled 1 prior turf starter that did not win on the surface. The third dam, Sangue, won three Grade 1 races on grass en route to over a million dollars in earnings.
Gunner finished ahead of Mr Consolidator, the morning line favorite, when winning a 'n2L' allowance to kick off his three-year-old season and was very wide going two turns in his most recent start on dirt.
He has some tactical speed and may find himself stalking the early pace under Rex Stokes.
In multi-race wagers, I'll also use #6 MR CONSOLIDATOR. His sire, a Grade 1 winner around two turns at two, never raced on grass and is 3-20 (15%) with first-time turf performers.
The winning dam compiled a 4-0-0-2 record on grass and this is her first foal to try the surface. The dam is a half-sister to the stakes-winning dirt sprinter Introspect (411K in earnings, 4-0-0-1 on turf). The second dam was a stakes-winning sprinter that never raced on turf. This is the female family of Lucky North as well as Kudz, who finished third in the Melbourne Cup in Australia.
I'd hesitate to take a short price on Mr Consolidator to win as he tries route racing and turf for the first time, but he's bred to handle at least a mile and the broodmare sire, Dynaformer, is a good turf influence.
Mr Consolidator seems in good form and can also stalk the expected solid pace.
As for the others:
#1 SPIRITUAL ORDER is by the unplaced Presidential Order (only raced once), a half-brother to Grade 2 route winner French Deputy that is 5-29 (17%) with first-time turf runners. The stakes-placed dam (70K in earnings) went 4-0-0-0 on turf and this is her first starter. There is not a great amount of grass ability close up in the female family.
Spiritual Order may work out a good pace-tracking, ground-saving trip under Cisco Torres, but must try two turns for the first time.
#2 NORTHERN CANDYRIDE will be appealing to many bettors as he attracts one of the nation's leading riders, Julien Leparoux. The barn is clicking at 40% on the meet and Northern Candyride is the only horse in the race with a route win.
The sire, Candy Ride, was a Group 1 winner on turf in Argentina (3-3 overall on turf) as well as a Grade 1 winner on dirt in the United States. Candy Ride is 9-73 (12%) with first-time turf runners.
The unraced dam has foaled one prior turf runner that did not win on the surface. The dam, a daughter of turf champion Theatrical, is a half-sister to multiple Group 2 turf winner Walzerkoenigin. This is the female family of D. C. International winner Providential and Prix Marcel Boussac winner Play It Safe.
Northern Candyride has appealing connections, is an Indiana-bred in name only, and should receive a strong pace to attack. He figures to run well here.
#3 LUCKY CHUCK was stakes-placed going two turns over polytrack over the winter. He was beaten 18 lengths in his only start on turf, but forgiving handicappers will note that he did not break well on that occasion. He'll go two sprints to a route in the third start of the form cycle and wouldn't be the worst play in the world here.
#5 LONDON TOWN was claimed for $15,000 earlier this year at Philadelphia Park. His sire, Eddington, was a Grade 1 winner going long on dirt and he went 1-1 on the grass. Eddington is 2-24 (8%) with first-time turf runners. The dam won the Grade 1 Oak Leaf Stakes as a two-year-old at Santa Anita (1-0-0-0 on turf) and has foaled one prior turf performer that did not win on the surface.
London Town is a half-brother to juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Foolishly (85K), and stakes-winner Weather Warning (128K). He won around two turns at Charles Town, but has faltered of late in route races.
#7 FLYLIKABIRD is by multiple stakes-winning sprinter Commemorate (2-0-0-1 on turf), a sire that is 6-108 (6%) with first-time turf runners. The winning dam was unraced on turf and this is her first foal to try the surface. The dam is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-winning sprinter No Beans and the second dam was stakes-placed at two.
This one is eligible for a 'N2L' race and there are questions surrounding distance and surface.
#8 MOTOWN BOY is by sprint winner Black Moonshine, a sire that did not run on turf and is 0-17 with first-time grass runners. The sprint-winning dam was unraced on grass and she has foaled one prior turf runner that did not win on the surface. Motown Boy is a full brother to Moonshine Still, a stakes-placed sprinter at two that went 5-0-3-0 on turf. The third dam, Infinidad, was a multiple Group/Grade 1 winner in Chile and the United States.
Motown Boy looms the main speed, but could face some pressure in the early stages and he was no match late for Northern Candyride in his only previous two-turn test.
#9 SIAGON TRAFFIC COP is by Could Be Me, a two-time winner that went 6-0-0-1 on turf and is 0-5 with first-time turf runners. Could Be Me is a half-brother to multiple stakes-winner Awesome Ashley. The placed dam was unraced on turf and has foaled one prior turf runner that failed to win on the surface. The third dam was a multiple stakes-winner, but Siagon Traffic Cop draws poorly and must improve dramatically off his poor dirt form.
I'll take a shot with a price.
$50 Win-Place - Gunner (#4)
Best of luck to all.
Here are the top 25 winning Beyer Speed Figures from last week's racing action:
Here are the lifetime past performances for the week's highest Beyer performer:
Back Friday with some weekend stakes thoughts.
With 3yo's like Trappe Shot, Concord Point and A Little Warm all running big races recently after having skipped the Derby my mind was brought back to the BC Classic in 1994 at Churchill when a "second half" 3yo named Concern managed to grab the spoils over Tabasco Cat and another good "second half" 3yo Dramatic Gold. Any chance of getting the PP's for the 1994 BC Classic?
Dan with the opening of Saratoga 11 days away, could you list the PP's for the ultimate horse for the course Quick Call? thanks
C. , I did a number for gameness on Easy Goer, Sunday Silence and Zenyatta. They all got 100. Its safe to say they could be entered anywhere and be one of the top 4 contenders. Lol.
Sometimes fastest and gamest come in the same package but not always.
Blackstone, I believe DRF just has Closer Look for Mth 6-10 (the Pick 5 races), because I get the same thing. Annie
C. another advantage is that sometimes going through the eliminators/qualifiers it appears no horse can reasonably be expected to win. Everybody knows its good to skip some races. Its even better to have some insight into which ones to skip.
blackstone Hope you and your wife have fun in Reno this weekend, & you both come home winners :) SR Vegas
keithl not sure why ur telling me about these infamous bloggers. i know who bookerT and the mgs r. i listen 2 all kinds of rock&roll. VQ
C, I did an experiment once by making a one page cheat sheet with the 8 eliminators and how to make the 2 numbers and gave it to a reasonably sharp 12 yr. old with no previous racing form knowledge. He applied it to a nine race card and had 4 winners. I'm not sure how long it would take to learn how to physcap 4 winners ?
" looks like i got my math wrong on otbs new boss. he makes 125.000 a month. thats 1.5 million a year or 8 1/2 times what casey made." if casey wanted 2 work 4 chump change thats his business not mine.