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HG 192 (Belmont turf), Top Beyers
Today's HandiGambling 192 exercise is the sixth race from Belmont Park, a $60,000 maiden claimer for three-year-old fillies at 1 1/16 miles on the inner turf course.
Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan." Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified. Please post your plays and analysis to the blog. Past performances are available on the previous blog entry. In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per person please. I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
The turf course is listed as "Firm" and the portable rail is out 18 feet.
Let's scratch #8 CURLINA and #9 CAT BE NIMBLE.
Please note that #3 CHARMED will race with Blinkers On.
I like #5 THE WEST RIM, a half-sister to Ainamaa (4-20 for 219K, multiple stakes-placed on turf) out of a dam that won a stakes on turf in Ireland. Last time out, The West Rim showed speed, but was pressured by a 63-1 shot up front. She put away that foe as well as another pace challenger before ultimately being passed by a rail-skimming rallier. The sixth-place finisher from that race came back to win a $35,000 maiden claimer on the turf.
The West Rim figures to be close to another moderate pace in this spot and could sit just off SMARTIE BOBBI's flank going into the turn. This could be a now-or-never race for The West Rim, a seven-time loser that has gone down to defeat at 7-2 or less in her last five races. Although perhaps not the most reliable sort in the world, I'll give her the nod.
#4 WON HOT KITTY may be the horse to beat. She adds blinkers while dropping into a maiden claimer for the first time and she is bred to appreciate the added distance (by Kitten's Joy out of a half-sister to multiple Grade 3 turf winner Sharp Performance). She exits a key race (second-finisher returned to beat special weights on turf with an 82 Beyer, fourth-finisher beat special weights on grass with an 80), switches to Ramon Dominguez, and looks like she's ideally-spotted here.
#2 SMARTIE BOBBI improved by leaps and bounds in her first race in blinkers. The dam was a stakes-placed router and Smartie Bobbie could have things her own way on the front end this afternoon. She finished ahead of The West Rim when just missing in her most recent appearance, and shows five workouts in preparation for this start for high-percentage trainer Angel Penna Jr.
#3 CHARMED goes two sprints to a route and may show improved speed with today's addition of blinkers. She found a key race for her debut (winner came back to score an entry-level allowance on grass at Philadelphia Park with 74 Beyer while third-finisher graduated on grass in a $25,000 maiden claimer with 65) and didn't have a smooth start last time. Improvement is expected.
#1 OLIVE EYE, a half-sister to stakes-placed turf performer Now More Than Ever (5-13, 175K on turf) finished ahead of Charmed last time out in her first start for trainer Joe Lostritto. She should save valuable ground from the inside post and could work out a nice pace-tracking trip under hot-riding Javier Castellano.
#7 CHANTILLY G. is out of a half-sister to turf stakes-winner Fiddle and she rallied into a slow pace last time out to finish a neck behind next-out graduate Jazzy Moves (won $35,000 maiden claimer on grass with 75 Beyer). The pace may not be much hotter today, but she seems to be on the improve for Linda Rice.
#8 GLORY WIT A STORY is a half to stakes-winning router Bully for You (2-7 on turf, 304K earnings overall). She didn't do much in her career debut, but was probably in over her head in that fast-paced maiden special weight. Two horses came out of that race to graduate (fourth-finisher returned to win a special weight on grass with a 70 while fifth-finisher won a special weight on grass at Indiana Downs with a 72).
I'll play it this way:
$50 Exacta - The West Rim - Won Hot Kitty (5-4)
$50 Exacta - The West Rim - Smartie Bobbi (5-2)
Best of luck to all.
Here are the top 25 winning Beyers from last week's racing action:
Here are the lifetime past performances for the week's highest Beyer earner:
Back tomorrow with questions, comments, pp requests and some weekend stakes selections.
..okay...a note before I get off my original point regarding The Ladys Secret. The change in purse from 150K, to 400K (if Rachel shows up) the added length to 1 1/8 mile ...WHY change it from Aug 1....to July 24 ? I guess THAT is my question. THAT does not make sense to me. unless MTH wants to boost an already weak card on the 24th, and hope that the "Rachel" factor that day will pack them in? ....just some musings. SR Vegas
Congrat's to Primo $2875.00 I have gone thru the posts for that past 2 topics and cannot find info. on Nancy B. I would like to give her a "shout out" but I don't know (can't find her post) what she proclaimed for HG.
Hey Blackstone ...Nice to see you back.Good luck this weekend! SR Vegas
Dan, I really enjoy your blog, you do great work.. Any chance you can post the PPs for.. Theatrical and Paradise Creek?
TBTA I Know, I Know...Wahhh! That is why I'm a bit peeved over moving the date from Aug 1...It would have been a perfect Blue Thong Day if Rachel was there ..Wahhh! Ok, enough whine...back to our regular programming :) SR Vegas
"when I can't get any of the lady Formbloggers to remember Paul Newman in the movie, 'Nobody's Fool'" Chicago Gerry ...being curious..I had to Google this film... Me being of the "I love to read a newspaper from cover to cover" ilk, and have the luxury to do this :) Nobody's Fool / Paul Newman 1996..Well THAT explains it! The last theatre movie I went to see was in 2000. American Beauty (1999) with Kevin Spacey. The weekend before the Oscars awards. After that it has been DVD's for the big screen tv, or the ever convenient DVR :) ...and then a few years later, I found Handicapping the horses & racing...LOL! SR Vegas
longwaytomay Oh, Ouch.. That is what I was afraid of. (Even though not disclosed in the article this time) The last time Jess Jackson asked a Venue to change it's dates, & add more $$$, Rachel Alexandra didn't show.(was the 2010 Apple Blossom) That, dispite the fact that Zenyatta had committed to the race. http://www.drf.com/news/article/110719.html Now, I would also love to see the Zenyatta camp change an already on going training /potential race schedule & show up in 4 weeks for the Ladys Secret. If Zenyatta would show, I would hope they would increase the purse to $1 Mil. Regardless of the level of the race. But I think THAT won't happen. Now, if they kept it at Monmouth on Aug 1...and If Zenyatta's & Rachel's connections would consider a ship and race schedule...Hmmm? Interesting? THAT would be a day of races to remember... But we can hypothesise (sp)all we want...it isn't going to happen :) Still, I enjoyed your take on this . SR Vegas
Stephen Taylor, Will try to meet up with you at 12:00 noon Saturday straight up at the horseman's observation area above the winners circle. If something comes up for you and you can't make it, don;t worry about it and PGM and I will communicate with you later. Thanks. P. ensign, Precisely, that's just who I am talking about. You hit the nail on the head. The Joe Btfsplk type, with a rain cloud over their head all the time. These guys are real irrigating, if you ask me.
Calvin, El Morro does have an unusual sire line. Unfortunately, it hasn't done well. It's a pity since we need more variety soundness and stamina in the current US breed. The fact that tracks are shortening historical races with no explanation is very disturbing. In the last 20 years, the Euros have exported many well-bred US horses with stamina oriented pedigrees and sire lines other than the top 3. Let's go raid England, Ireland and France to get them back. While we're at it, we'll stop off in Germany and pick up a few of their horses. In exchange we'll offer them a copy of Alan's masterpiece, "Hitler Does Handigambling." That should net us some very good racing stock.
With Chicago not having their big Fireworks display, Arlington is advertising the "guaranteed biggest firework display in Chicagoland" tomorrow and has already sold out every seat (and may sell out General Admission as well) While many of the people who attend will bet nothing or next to nothing, there will still, imho, be quite a bit of "Derby Day" like money (people who know nothing about horseracing) so it's a great day to make money (and remember, I said earlier to lay off Calabrese unless the horse looks best on it's own-3 beaten favs yesterday) Here are my picks for AP tomorrow: 1st-4-Breezing Rain (may be chalk) but ships in from CD and cuts price in half. Like to cash a ticket that first race so I don't have to worry about an "ofer" day. 2nd-3-Tanks Letter-private purchase (I like those because they've been checked by a vet so I know they're sound) and ships up from CD. 3rd-5-Double Jump-Canadian Lynx will be the favorite, but "Double" takes a realistic drop and there should be enough speed for him to run at (speed hasn't been holding at AP very much on the poly) 4th-2-Margo's Delight will be forwardly placed which is a good thing going long on AP grass. 5th-3-Stresskiller-drops from MSW to MC and has a huge turf tomlinson. 12/1 ML adds to the appeal 6th-4-Miles and Miles-faced Helicopter (can't remember the last time he lost) going 1 1/8 last out, drops to logical spot and cuts back in distance. 7th-5-Sicomoro-in solid form now and barn 40% off claims at the meet. 10/1 ML 8th-4-Beautiful Bliss-could pull a wire job at 8/1 9th-ARLINGTON OAKS-2-Chantilly Oaks is the ML fav but off the race against Frannie Freud 2 back she's still my pick here. 10th-9-Oh Gee She's Gold-claimed by sharp barn, rested, two quick "handily" works and will be closer to the lead-12/1 price doesn't hurt either. If you're "track hopping" tomorrow, with all the "once a year money" if you're right at Arlington you'll probably be well rewarded.