06/09/2010 1:55PM

HG 188 (Off The Turf)

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Today's HandiGambling 188 exercise is the ninth race at Belmont, a $25,000 'N2L' claimer for fillies and mares going six furlongs on the main track.  Please note that this race is OFF THE TURF.

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."   Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.  Please post your plays and analysis to the blog.  Past performances are available on the previous blog entry.  In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference.  One entry per person please.  I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.

I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place.  The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are.  I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.

Again, the race will be run on the main track at six furlongs.  Let's scratch #2 CASA DI VINO, #7 Z CATS MEOW, #8 JUSTINLINE, and #10 GHOUL.  The track is fast as of this writing, but there are thunderstorms in the area. 

I'd go three deep in the final leg of the Pick 4 and Pick 6. 

#12 AQUIT, the lone runner entered for "Main Track Only," looms the horse to beat at short odds.  Every single one of her races are faster than the last dirt start of the rest of the field, she's dropping into a claimer for the first time after chasing next-out 80 Beyer winner (Monmouth allowance) City Broad, and she projects for an up-close trip while racing in the clear. 
There are some negatives as she's only worked twice (both at three furlongs) since April 23, but this field just looks so weak that she seems to have them over a barrel.

#3 TREAT HER RIGHT may be the main speed under Jermaine Bridgmohan.  She's riding a 14-race losing streak, however, and failed to ride an inside, speed-favoring track at Finger Lakes two starts back.  She caught a decent group of 'N2L' claimers that afternoon as the winner was odds-on and the race produced two next-out winners.  Please note that she hasn't gained ground from the stretch call to the wire in her last six races.  Still, it's not bad to be the speed in a poor field and she seems the horse most likely to capitalize if the favorite doesn't fire off the bench.

#1 PEA STONE has yet to cross the wire first (lone victory via disqualification), but she goes third off the layoff and has been well-bet in both of her starts this season.  Her main track Beyers put her in the mix and she has enough tactical speed to work out a solid trip from close to the pace. 

As for the rest:

#4 AURIC GIRL pulled off a big upset for this trainer/jockey team nine days ago, but that race was on the grass and her dirt races aren't very inspiring. 

#5 TOMORROWS ROSES wasn't disgraced against statebreds last time out.  Still, she hasn't shown a strong stretch punch in her last three races.  The slight turnback in distance may work to her favor.

#6 POSEY PARK is hard to recommend off her poor recent form.

#9 GREEN ARROWS is somewhat interesting.  She had a difficult trip last time out so it may be wise to simply draw a line through that race.  Her races two and three back weren't bad, but she'll face open company for the first time this afternoon. 

#10 NIGHT SPIRIT was very late to change leads when a maiden special weight winner over the Tapeta surface at Presque Isle Downs two back.  She bombed in her lone race on dirt, but it must be noted that she was facing tougher company in that Laurel start.  The long layoff is somewhat of a concern and this filly may want a bit more ground to work with.

Here's my HG play:

$50 Exacta - Aquit - Treat Her Right (12-3)
$50 Exacta - Aquit - Pea Stone (12-1)

Best of luck to all.


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Here are the top 25 Winning Beyer Speed Figures from last week's races:


xxx

Here are the lifetime past performances for Quality Road:

Download Quality Road

Curt A Vassallo More than 1 year ago
Fisherman, Where the heck have you been hiding ? I see you posted this morning on a topic from 6 days ago on the June 7th link. Too much fishing on the brain ? Or, were you just trying to ruffle the feathers, thinking nobody would see ? I told you numerous times, I don't miss a trick....LOL...That campaign & this one you alluded, is still the same ole, same ole, same ole... I see you decided to compliment C, reluctantly...You meant MOI, right ? I begin w/ C.....hehehe....Disguises only work around here on Halloween........Then again, I should have figured you couldn't take all the pressure w/UR 2 favorite girls running this weekend...Aren't you going to tout that Make Magic or something like that, horse ? That's right up your alley....
SR Vegas More than 1 year ago
Thanks blackseabass! SR Vegas
Caseyjeaux More than 1 year ago
Annie, Curlin sent me a text message.
Curt A Vassallo More than 1 year ago
oops sry missed 1 curt A vassallo thats what booze will do 2 u Virgin Queen...>>>reported here on June 10, 2010 @ 5:44 PM. Sorry, VG., good try. But, I don't drink... & C, doesn't sound like a country bumpkin either..w/his DRF rolled up in his back pocket, to boot... I think both of us, are calling it what it is. Somethings are what they are.
blackseabass More than 1 year ago
Regarding bouncing, In the case of monster beyers regression toward the mean should be expected at some point. In the lower echolons of the beyer scale it is not unusual to see a horse run 68,77,85,92,100 while Ripping off wins and exacta finishes all the while off a previous beyer top. I used that example purposly to illustrate another point. The average winner of all races in aggregate improves 8 beyer points off his previous race. So if your looking at a horse that you don't think can do that or have that number suffice to win the race then he might be a line out. If winners generally improve and horses that finished 1st 2nd or 3rd last out win most of the races then it logically follows that good efforts produce another good effort more often than they produce a poor one. As much as I dislike agreeing with C, I'd have to say that so-called bounces more accurately termed regression in speed figures resulting in loses or poor efforts are generally accompanied by other factors such as pace or lack there of etc. etc. Guessing on bounces is a long run loser.
blackseabass More than 1 year ago
Van Savant 6/10 10:23 very well put and interesting thoughts.
blackseabass More than 1 year ago
Same old tomato cannetes ? St. Trinians has never faced Zenyatta. She has beaten Zardana though who in turn is 50/50 vs TOFEE. St. Trinians would likely go favored vs. TOFEE tomorrow. SR Vegas the answer to the 3 time Vanity ? is nobody.Lets hope Zenyatta can change that. Its more likely you'll see QR in the BC Sprint than the Classic!
blackseabass More than 1 year ago
Kip DeVille was a personal favorite of mine I never lost a race with him and he delivered me $20 mutuels several times. As a guess I'd say he made me more ROI than any other multiple winners I've ever had with the possible exception of Da'Hoss.Kippy was a Runner.RIP
SR Vegas More than 1 year ago
Whackymacky "It is so nice to get down on your knee's and plant 24 tomato plants." LOL! I hear you...I'm happy to have potted plants on my patio of rosemary, and a couple nice green perennials to look at! Nice job with your girfriend Chantal over the last couple days :) SR Vegas
SR Vegas More than 1 year ago
C "I'd like to officially bash the Breeders Cup for choosing Churchill again in 2011, just as I did when they went to SA 2 years in a row." LOL! The first thought when I read that in DRF is what?? Are they trying to overcompensate for running two years on the "Synthetic" (un-popular) tracks...so now they commit to two years on "dirt" (the favored track of Handicappers, and long time horse enthusiasts) In general, Joe public doesn't know the difference between any of them :) & that is the audience I think the BC connections is trying to reach. SO, I HAVE to relate a short story - Read at your own risk... Being from So Cal & NOT learning the art of Handicapping until a few years ago, I naturally watched the West Coast tracks for convenience ( a 3 hour time difference in my favor) and a bit of social knowledege when I was in my 30's or so.. At this point I had no choice but to handicapped ONLY on the Synthetic surfaces out here (CHRB Directive)...so go figure, and I will bet alot of newcomers to this sport may be in my shoes. Multi Synthetic surfaces...didn't matter to me, I took what was given me. But I DO appreciate the finer nuances of the HG races, as it does put me out there to handicap whatever the surface 'du jour is. Dirt, slop, or all weather :) SR Vegas