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HG 187 Belmont
Today's HandiGambling 187 exercise is the seventh race at Belmont, the $100,000 New York Stallion Stakes for three-year-olds going seven furlongs on the Widener Turf Course.
Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan." Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified. Please post your plays and analysis to the blog. Past performances are available on the previous page. In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per person please. I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
Let's scratch, #1 SEATTLE MISSION, #2 EIRE'S RUN, #4 IN TE DOMINE, and #5 STRATEGIC MISSILE. There is no Superfecta wagering. The turf course is Firm with the portable rails set at 27 feet.
On paper, this race looks like a slam-dunk for #8 FRANNY FREUD, a Grade 2 winner dropping in against statebreds (she is 3-3 against NY-bred only competition in her career). Of course, they don't run on paper, they do it on the track, and no one is unbeatable. Sure, Franny Freud is the horse to beat at 1-5 or so, but the words of the great Harvey Pack keep resonating in my head:
"Never bet A FAVORITE doing something it's never done before."
Franny Freud is a filly facing males this afternoon, but she defeated the boys in her career debut last year. No problem there. But, she has never raced on turf. While some may note her successes on synthetic and believe that she'll automatically transfer that good form to the grass, I'm not sure that's as much a racing absolute as many folks believe.
She's the main speed and is bred for the grass as her sire, Freud, is a Group 2-placed full brother to the top-class turf runner Giant's Causeway. Freud checks in at 14% with first-time turf runners. The dam was unraced on grass and has foaled two turf runners that failed to win on the surface.
Trainer John Terranova II is 0 for his last 23 with first-time turf runners (1-38, 2-45). Franny Freud SHOULD win and it would be folly to toss her in multi-race wagers, but for HandiGambling purposes, I'll take a chance that she stubs her toe on the sod.
I'll go with #3 MAKE NOTE, the winner of a pair of statebred sprint stakes races over sloppy going at two. He made his three-year-old debut 24 days ago, and wasn't disgraced behind a swift runner named General Maximus. He won his second lifetime start and may be a bit sharper for his second race of the form cycle at three.
The sire is 13% from a limited sample of first-time turf runners and the sprint-winning dam was 0-1 on grass. She has foaled 1 turf runner that did not win on the surface. The dam is a half-sister to turf stakes-winner Meadow Pipit.
Make Note may be up against it from a pace standpoint, but he hasn't really run a bad one. Perhaps he can take the measure of Franny Freud in the waning strides.
As for the others:
#10 BELONGS TO SHEILA took to turf like a duck to water as he successfully stepped up from claimers to beat statebred maiden special weights in his first try on grass. He's another that prefers to rally from off the pace and may be in trouble if Franny Freud waltzes on the front end. Adventurous handicappers could play her as a 'C' in their multi-race wagers.
#6 LEATHERHEAD won his maiden in his 11th lifetime outing but his Beyer Speed Figures pale in comparison to those of Franny Freud and Make Note. He'll need continued improvement in order to take these down.
#7 HITTIN THE NOTE, like Make Note, is a first-time turfer by Read the Footnotes. The sprint-winning dam was unraced on turf and has foaled 1 sod starter that did not win. He finished behind Make Note on dirt last time out.
#9 GAME TOKEN is by a stallion that only wins with 4% of his first-time turf runners. The stakes-winning dam went 0-2 on grass and this is her first foal to try the surface. The dam is a half-sister to Justice for Auston (8-49, 368K on grass).
Franny Freud is the horse to beat, but I'll play it like this:
$100 Win - Make Note (3)
Best of luck to all.
Here are the top 25 winning Beyer Speed Figures from last week's racing action:
Here are the lifetime past performances for Enriched:
Saturday there is an interesting one running in the 4th at Hollywood, SARATOGA STEVE (Freud x Frankly Fran). Does that breeding sound familiar to you? Probably, because his full sister FRANNY FREUD ran in our Handigambling race yesterday.
Sorry, chat is TONIGHT at 9:30 PM - dobn't know why my fingers decided to type 26.
Now that work has slown down, great Card at Arlington (haven't been able to say that with a straight face too often this year) and here's who not to bet on (AKA my picks) In the 7th raceWe've got 7-Tatum Girl (7/2 second choice in the wagering) The chalk is 8-Royal Terms who has been off since August, and the price horse is 2-Once is Enough who's form looks terrible at first glance but can wake up in a BIG WAY back on poly. (lifetime record: AP poly-4 starts,2wins, 1 2nd-All other tracks-15 starts, 1 win, 4 thirds) As for the other races: 1st-5-Simply the Fox-first off claim for a trainer who, at this meet has claimed 5 horses first off claim-3 wins, 1 2nd. 2nd-4-Futuristic looks tough here, takes a class drop from starter 16 to 7500. Had a second at keeneland in his past so poly shouldn't be a problem 3rd-Paisano Creek is a STANDOUT here-just won a 25 followed by a nw2 on the poly and now gets back on grass for 25-AND IS A BETTER GRASS HORSE! 4th-4-Proscio eyes his 3rd straight Starter 5 win and no real reason he won't get it. 5th-BOMB #1- 8-VICKY'S BAR!-is an 0 for 18 maiden BUT in her only turf sprint she was beaten a bit over a length with a 73 beyer (better than anyone else in the field sprinting on grass) 15/1 ML and could get more. 6th-9-Stormy Ballad has 3 seconds in 3 AP poly starts-gonna try to beat the 8/5 chalk and this horse is 2nd time Karlson which I REALLY like. 7th-as said above GO TATUM! 8th-3-Bergman is 6/1 ML-Catalano has a horse (leavensworth) who will be bet down but just won nw1-tough to win back to back, and Bergman is 2nd off layoff-last 2 times 2nd off layoff improved 15 and 16 beyers points respectively-half of that will get the job done here! 9th- (Grade 3 Hanshin)BOMB ALERT TWO!-2-McLard is an improving horse, 20-1 and was 3rd on the grass at Keeneland to a couple of nice horses-but the thing I like best (besides the price) is that he's by Slew City Slew and first time poly. 10th- (Matron)BOMB ALERT THREE!-9-Home's The Best is another 20/1 shot. Will be coming at the end and speed hasn't really been holding lately. Nice prep last and this is 3rd off layoff-4th in this race last year with a very respectible 92 beyer. Looking at past record for this horse the 3rd start appears to be the best of his form cycle. (1-Floating Heart is the logical choice but nowhere near the price, and I just have a hunch that Tizaqueena is in a "funk" and won't run well here which should lead to value all around) 11th-10 Triple Check has been competitive with open company at Keeneland, gets IL Bred maidens here, 'nuff said. Here's my early pick 4-(no formulator, no abc,etc.-it's a $40 ticket looking for a bomb in the 5th-4,6 w 1 w 1,4 with ALL.
Amazing, 2 (count 'em TWO) Washington horses on the front page of DRF. Atta Boy Roy and Gallant Son step up to the rest of the world this weekend. Smiling Tiger has been holding his own too.
Good morning, all.... Thanks SR and Annie for kudos on my BEST ACTOR getting into the winner's circle...made the long-suffering spouse hold dinner out on the deck until I'd seen him do it! Dan, do tell Mike that KATY NOW is the winner of the BEL 8 today. End of discussion. Also want to reiterate what another blogger mentioned earlier this week: Maylan on the weeds is rockin'! She brought home the late double for me yesterday on Stormy Success. I think that's the third or fourth mile on the turf longshot she's won in the past week. Keep an eye out for her mounts on Toscano turfers. Good luck today to all ! Katie-giving-Best-Actor-an-extra-carrot
Annie, Thanks for the info. And it's great that Sky is also running on Belmont day. I do think he's a talented horse, but I never thought he was a good fit with the Derby distance, so I hope he's in a sprint, or maybe a mile.
...opps...That work for DELIGHTFUL KISS today was 0:35.20
5/28/10 MKB Workouts Churchill Downs (dirt/fast) Spicer - 4F 0:47.40 Breezing - SR Vegas/IMS Aspire - 5F 1:00.60 Breezing - David W Hollywood Park (all weather/fast) Privilaged - 4F 0:48.00 Handily - vicstu ____________________________ I'll throw out a pick for this weekend. DELIGHTFUL KISS at Golden Gate 100K Berkley Stakes, on Memorial Day. I'll give this PGH a chance here..He's been on my HW and working well. With a 3F 0:35.80 work today, the trainer might be placing him closer to the pace? http://www.drf.com/static/entries/31/eGG31.html#7 We'll see. No odds yet, but will guess with the other entries, Delightful Kiss may be under the radar. Good Luck! _____________________________ And a special Thank You to all our men & women who are serving or served in the various sectors of the Military. You are my American Heros. SR Vegas
Annie Not really 'red boarding' here, But, a silly name I've been watching. TICKET TO VEGAS. LOL! Look how he did today :) http://www.drf.com/drfNCWeeklyHorseDisplay.do?track=LAD&country=USA&raceDate=20100528&raceNo=2 SR Vegas
Hollywood Selections for Friday, as i write these then head out the door to there: :-) Race 1: I like #1 Moonlit Dream in here, but this race will offer no value because of the scratch of the #4. I also like the fact that the #1 has worked further than the scheduled distance. Race 2: #3 DAYLIGHT STORM Speed, but can be just off. (Another low odds choice) Race 3: #4 LOVE THAT MELODY just looks like the best horse. The #2 & #9 are in the fight for the place spot. Race 4: #3 ULTRA AWESOME will sit a perfect trip behind the speed. Race 5: #7 AMINA comes from a barn that is lethal off the layoff and with the 1st time acquisitions. Plus, she has run well off the layoff. Going 7/ALL/1/ ALL in the .10 super Race 6: #5 HOLLADAY ROAD cuts back to a very long sprint, can pass a horse, will be sitting behind the first flight and is in good form. Afraid of the #9 ITSSULTRYINTHECAPE. Race 7: #5 FLEET STREAK has decent form, will improve off the layoff, will be rolling late and will be a square price. Betting the #6 to place to save. Race 8: #15 DANGEROUS CURVES gets one last chance on the re-drop. This race is nearly impossible, but might as well take a shot. Good luck tonight! tencentcielo