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HG 173, Derby Futures, Work Tab
Today's HandiGambling 173 exercise is the eighth race from Santa Anita, a $32,000 maiden claimer for 3-year-old fillies at one mile on the Pro-Ride racing surface.
Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan." Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified. In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference.
Past performances are available on the previous blog entry.
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated,
As of this writing, there are no scratches.
Not much form in this bottom-level maiden claimer and it's not a race I'm planning on playing very seriously. In my multi-race wagers, I'm going to focus on three contenders.
PRESS THE POINT (#1) makes the two sprints to a route move in the third start of the form cycle and the addition of blinkers may get her into the race a bit quicker. By the long-winded dual classic winner Point Given, Press the Point is a half-sister to Appearance Fee, a multiple stakes-winner at 1 1/16 miles at Hastings Park. This pedigree indicates that Press the Point will appreciate the added distance, and she may work out a nice trip saving valuable ground behind a solid pace. The main negative is that trainer Paul Aguirre is 1-30 over the past year with synthetic starters.
LED ADVANTAGE (#9) is very logical off two close in-the-money finishes going a route of ground. She has a bad habit of breaking poorly, and that always puts her behind the eight ball, but the presence of several stretch out sprinters should set the race up for a stalker or closer. Led Advantage finished three lengths ahead of Moonskipper on December 18, and that one beat Press the Point by three and one-half lengths on January 31. She looks like the horse to beat as of the seven runners to run after the December 18 race, one finished first (in a $20,000 maiden claimer) while four others hit the board. Still, she's going to be bet (she's the morning line favorite) and will have to go long off a two-month freshening.
Bruno De Julio, the workout maestro for Today's Racing Digest (available on drf.com) noted that Led Advantage "finished in hand here with company" on January 24.
THIS TIME BABY (#4) stretches out for the first time and may work out a pace-pressing trip outside possible pacesetter NOTWITHSTANDING (#3). This pedigree seems geared more to speed than true stamina, but This Time Baby should be legged up after starting the form cycle with three sprints.
As for the others:
DIAMONDS WILD (#2) could certainly win this. She has plenty of angles in her favor as she stretches out off two sprints while dropping into a maiden claimer for the first time. She also switches to Garrett Gomez. This is the biggest drop in the game so expect improvement from this daughter of Grade 3 route winner Keys to the Heart.
LISA LULU (#6) makes her ninth start in the maiden ranks, but she's run consistent Beyers in her last few races, chased a heavily-favored winner eight days ago, and wouldn't be the most shocking upsetter in the world. She hasn't shown much of a stretch punch in her career and may be best played on the bottom of exotic wagers.
MIMI'S COMMAND (#10) shook loose going 1 1/16 miles against similar company last time out, but came up empty when the real running began. With stretch out sprinters drawn to her inside, she may have to rate while wide. This is the third start of the form cycle with a bullet workout and improving Beyers on display, but she has yet to gain ground from the stretch call to the wire.
POCATELLO WILD CAT (#7) has hit the board in three straight races so it's interesting that the barn decides to remove the blinkers for this assignment. She finished ahead of two of the rivals she'll meet again this afternoon, and should be running late under Mike Smith.
Notwithstanding may be the speed after pressing solid fractions in her three sprint starts to date. The dam's only win came going long, but the feeling is that Notwithstanding will face some pressure down the backstretch that could compromise her finishing kick.
XINA (#8) is out of a dam that ran third in the nine-furlong San Gorgonio Handicap on the main track so there is some hope that this lightly-raced filly can get the additional distance. She just hasn't shown much to date and needs to improve.
HARVEY'SHALLOFSHAME (#5) has been sent off at odds between 48-1 and 170-1 in all five starts to date and her Beyers pale in comparison to those of the top contenders.
I'll play it like this for the HG:
$100 Win - Press the Point (1)
Best of luck to all.
Rachel Alexandra worked five furlongs in 1:00.20 this morning at Fair Grounds under exercise rider Dominic Terry. The defending Horse of the Year worked through fractions of 12, 23.80, 35.60, and 47.60, and galloped out six furlongs in 1:14.40. It was the second-fastest of nineteen workouts at the five-furlong distance this morning.
"The racetrack was wet last week, and a little slow, and we were being careful," trainer Steve Asmussen told the Fair Grounds Publicity Department. "I thought she was overly aggressive today, a little quick, so hopefully we'll level off. I think with not letting her do too much last week made her very keen. I think she wants to be in a rhythm. Hopefully the weather will be as good as it was this morning and fairly consistent, and then I think we'll be exactly where we want to be."
Here are the latest Kentucky Derby Future Odds from Lucky's Las Vegas:
On the work tab:
*Alpha Kitten - 2/14/10 - HOL - 6F - 1:11.20
Last race a win in the Santa Ynez Stakes on January 17, 2009, she has missed time with a non-displaced condylar fracture in the cannon bone of the right foreleg (surgery to insert screws)
*Believe in Hope - 2/18/10 - HOL - 4F - 47.60H
Last race a third in the Norfolk Stakes on September 28, 2008. He originally missed time with a virus.
*Bob Black Jack - 2/14/10 - HOL - 6F - 1:11.40H
Last race a win in the Malibu on December 26, 2008. He was sidelined with a leg injury and is entered in Saturday's San Carlos at Santa Anita.
*Bold Hawk - 2/12/10 - PMM turf (dogs) - 3F - 40.00B
Last race a third in the Hollywood Derby on November 25, 2007. He missed time after undergoing surgery on a suspensory ligament.
*Brass Hat - 2/16/10 - GP - 4F - 49.75B
Last race a second in the Stars N Stripes on September 7, 2009. He's returning from a splint injury.
*Bulldogger - 2/15/10 - SA - 6F - 1:11.00HG
Last race a debut win in a maiden special weight on August 29, 2009. He's recovered from sore shins.
*Bulls and Bears - 2/12/10 - PMM - 5F - 1:02.00B
Last race a fifth in the Sanford Stakes on July 30, 2009. He got sick after that race.
*Comedero - 2/16/10 - FG - 4F - 47.80B
Last race an eleventh in the Springboard Mile on December 13, 2009. He was injured in the starting gate earlier in the Fair Grounds meet.
*Compari - 2/17/10 - SA turf (dogs) - 6F - 1:16.00H
Last race a win in the Sensational Star on January 1, 2010. He's missed time with an upper respiratory infection.
*Dame Ellen - 2/15/10 - PMM - 4F - 49.90B
Last race a win in the Perfect Sting on June 26, 2009. She's returning from a bruised left foot.
*Danger to Society - 2/14/10 - GP - 5F - 1:03.60B
Last race a ninth in the Arkansas Derby on April 11, 2009, he suffered bruised cannon bones, and finished fifth in an allowance race this afternoon at Gulfstream Park.
*Dublin - 2/17/10 - OP - 4F - 48.20B
Last race a seventh in the Iroquois on November 1, 2009, he had surgery to repair an entrapped epiglottis, and will return in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn on February 20.
*Fitz Just Right - 2/17/10 - PMM - 4F - 51.90B
Last race a second in the Bourbonette Oaks at Turfway on March 21, 2009. She had surgery to remove chips from her right front ankle.
*Galayo - 2/17/10 - HOL - 3F - 37.00H
Last race a third in a maiden special weight on December 14, 2008, he was sidelined due to what trainer John Shirreffs termed "a minor thing."
*Heartless Vixen - 2/18/10 - HOL - 5F - 1;01.20H
Last race a win in an entry-level allowance on March 5, 2009, she suffered from blood clotting in a bone.
*Hold Me Back - 2/14/10 - PAY - 7F - 1:29.80B
Last race a sixth in the Kentucky Cup Classic on September 26, 2009, he is returning from a lung infection.
*Hull - 2/14/10 - FG - 4F - 49.40B
Last race a fourth in the Woody Stephens on June 6, 2009, he is returning from bone bruising.
*Kelly Leak - 2/18/10 - SA - 5F - 1:00.60H
Last race a sixth in the Oklahoma Derby on October 11, 2009, he is coming back from a bleeding incident and an illness.
*Life at Ten - 2/12/10 - BEL training - 5F - 1:01.62B
Last race a win in the Snit on December 12, 2010, she is scheduled to return from a quarter crack issue in Saturday's Rare Treat at Aqueduct.
*Lookin At Lucky - 2/14/10 - SA - 4F - 48.20H
Last race a win in the CashCall Futurity on December 19, 2009, he has suffered from a skin disease and a temperature, but will likely return in the San Felipe on March 13.
*Loup Breton - 2/15/10 - SA - 5F - 1:01.80H
Last race a win in the San Marcos on January 24, 2010, he came back stiff with cuts on his legs.
*Maximus Ruler - 2/14/10 - FG - 5F - 1:02.60B
Last race a second in the LeComte on January 23, he suffered a bruised right hind foot.
*Miss Charm City - 2/15/10 - LRL - 5F - 1:01.20H
Last race a win in the Maryland Million Lassie, she missed time with a suspensory injury to her right front foot.
*Monterey Jazz - 2/14/10 - HOL - 3F - 35.20B
Last race a seventh in the Oak Tree Mile on October 10, 2009, he is returning from an undisclosed injury.
*Mr. Fantasy - 2/18/10 - PMM - 5F - 1:02.80B
Last race a win in the Withers on April 25, 2009, he was originally diagnosed with a temperature.
*Nicanor - 2/15/10 - PMM - 5F - 1:01.20H
Last race an entry-level allowance win on June 17, 2009, he is returning from a hind end injury as well as bruised fetlocks.
*Our Dark Knight - 2/13/10 - PMM - 4F - 47.30H
Last race a second in a maiden special weight on August 29, 2009, he is returning from a hind end issue.
*Palanka City - 2/11/10 - OP - 5F - 59.80B
Last race a win in the Carousel on March 28, 2009, she is returning from a career-threatening cannon bone fracture, and is expected to compete in the Spring Fever Stakes at Oaklawn on February 20.
*Pulsion - 2/16/10 - GP - 5F - 59.75H
Last race an eleventh in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile on November 7, 2009, he missed time after being cut up in behind and suffering from mucus in his lungs. He is expected to start in Saturday's Fountain of Youth.
*Roaring Lion - 2/18/10 - BEL training - 4F - 49.99B
Last race a third in the Valley Forge on December 8, 2009, he is recovering from a stone bruise.
*Rush With Thunder - 2/18/10 - SA - 3F - 37.60B
Last race a second in the Triple Bend on July 5, 2009, he missed time with an undisclosed injury.
*She'll Be Doggone - 2/13/10 - AQU inner - 5F - 1:03.21B
Last race a win in a maiden special weight on November 15, 2009, she is likely to return from a left foreleg injury tomorrow afternoon at Aqueduct.
*Silver City - 2/18/10 - FG - 5F - 58.80B
Last race a fifth in the Derby Trial on April 25, 2009, he is recovering from a suspensory injury.
*Smokey Lonesome - 2/16/10 - HOL - 4F - 48.00H
Last race a second in the La Puente on April 11, 2009, she suffered from a hind-end injury.
*Smooth Air - 2/14/10 - CRC - 4F - 50.00B
Last race a sixth in the Whitney on August 8, 2009, he suffered a bruised left front foot, and a hairline fracture to his pelvis.
*Soaring Empire - 2/14/10 - PMM - 5F - 1:01.80H
Last race a third in the Iroquois on November 1, 2009, he suffered from body soreness.
*The Usual Q. T. - 2/17/10 - SA turf (dogs) - 6F - 1:18.40H
Last race at ninth in the Sunshine Millions Classic on January 30, 2010, he bled in that race and will be re-routed to the Frank Kilroe Mile on March 6.
*Thomas Got Even - 2/13/10 - PMM - 5F - 1:01.00H
Last race a win in a maiden special weight on September 11, 2009, he is recovering from sore shins and a temperature.
*Utterly Cool - 2/15/10 - FG - 4F - 48.80B
Last race a win in the Cup and Saucer on October 26, 2008, he underwent surgery to insert two screws in an ankle.
*Well Monied - 2/16/10 - SA - 4F - 47.80H
Last race a third in the Del Mar Oaks on August 22, 2009, she has missed time with a lung infection.
*Witty - 2/14/10 - SA - 4F - 49.20H
Last race a first in the Railbird on May 10, 2009, she is expected to return this afternoon at Santa Anita following a sickness and surgery to remove bone chips from an ankle.
More next time.
If you don't think post position and jockey assignments mean much to racing secretaries, take a look at the slight changes in ML odds assigned in the redrawn Southwest. Both Dryfly and Cool Bullet received a bump up as they drew much better posts, and in the latter's new ML of 6-1, his rider change to Jon Court also figured in I believe. (Cool Bullet was listed at 10-1 from the 8th post in the original cast, with Hernandez named to ride.). I like these two for the track and race configuration. I like that they are proved dirt performers, and are getting 5 pounds from Conveyance and Dublin here. Mission Impazible seems to have drawn out of contention here, and Conveyance will have to spend a lot of energy also from the 10th gate going for the front, carrying 122 lbs. I'll play Cool Bullet and Dryfly both Win and Place, and play Dublin, Dryfly, and Cool Bullet as a three horse exacta and trifecta wager.
Was thinking about Rockamundo (sp) the other day. My recollection is, he had surgery similar to Dublin's, and came out running big first race after the surgury. This is anedotal, but it shows the surjury can be effective. Lucas has to be happy about moving inside. With Gomez gone, I am wondering if Dublin, in fact, might go off as the betting favorite. Downey has the pre-race betting for the Southwest from last Monday, but I have not seen it. Thanks,
KNM, Read the article on the DRF homepage about the FOY. Our boy, Prince Will, is mentioned in the very last breath, er paragraph. :) Although he is dismissed at 30-1, don't forget that he ran 2nd to the hallowed Drosselmeyer. And at 42-1. :) Of course, even Drosselmeyer didn't want to take on the group in the FOY. WILL is gutty, if nothing else. LOL Annie
Wow! What a Saturday we are going to have. FIVE 3-year-old Stakes races with 25 MKB horses running. We should have fun tomorrow! Here's the odds for the MKB horses in the Southwest: EMILY'S Dryfly 3-1 Fav. DANNY B'S Conveyance 7-2 DAVE K'S Dublin 5-1 (I WISH!) DAVID W'S Domonation 6-1 JEANNE'S Pleasant Storm 8-1 ALAN H'S Mission Impazible 15-1 And, let's not forget - El Camino Real Derby: CHAAZZ' Connemara Good luck all with your horses! Annie
Dan, Was thinking about your passionate essay on promoting horse racing. Have loved the contribution of people like Walt P. and really several other Formbloggers who seem to know something about it. Some have already intimated at this, but it would be great to locate big time players who win and who use there own money in a format like a Poker Tournament and focus on their wagering and winning, how they handicap and how they construct their wagers. It could be edited so as to not have dead air time. I would like to see what these guys look like. For example on of the Poker guys working his craft wearing a long leather coat and cowboy boots. They told about his experience and background. Surely, some of these guys would do this, perhaps for money, but what the heck, its promoting the sport. It would be a situation where some really big money was put out there, and would show some big payoffs. Perhaps one could include some syndicate groups pooling there money on a big pick 6 payout. Maybe do it on the big racing days of the calendar. The idea is to show big time players and big time winners. The heck with small potatoes types. Maybe some other program for the small potato player. Thanks,
Caseyjeaux: I saw the work on Bird Empire, Irish Emperor came back with a work today also. Not as quick as "the Birds", but both are doing well. The new Lukas runner to watch going in the recarded MSW at 1&1/16ths tomorrow at Oaklawn is Delong Road, a Storm Cat colt out of class turf mare Tates Creek. Lukas is a little slower bringing his stable along than is Baffert, but he has some well bred stock indeed.
KYL Syndicate "Wagers for Sunday, Feb 21" Short prices expected at Aqueduct and will go with cold exactas with plans of getting 8-1 on return. Aqueduct Race 1: TAR BEACH -> Broke a little slow last out and did not flash the early speed that was expected and as a result had to sit the trip and by the time the winner made his move, the race was already over. Faces a much weaker field today and with the rail draw, should have a perfect trip sitting off the 2, 4 and 7, need for the lead types and Rosie should have no trouble going by them on a turn for a facile win. Cold exacta using the 6 who always goes by the tiring runners to fill out the exacta. Wagers: Win and cold exacta over 6 Aqueduct Race 3: DAILY STAR -> 'Purrfect Bluff' will likely go off around 8/5 in this spot but after winning impressively three back, his last two races have been a disappointment. Received good trips in both recent starts but flattened out in the stretch, and with Dominguez jumping off and no recent workouts, time for me to abandon ship as well. Will go with DAILY STAR who has early speed in a race short of it to pull clear late for the win, either by going wire to wire or sitting off 'Purrfect Bluff' Wagers: Win and cold exacta over 1A Aqueduct Race 5: VOLOS -> 'Independence War' will be odds on in here with 'Missile Motor' the second choice, but hoping 'Mitchell Park' will scratch to increase the odds on the selection VOLOS. 3,4,6 are speed horses who have fared well against cheaper but will knock each other out. 'Independence War' makes his move and hoping the step up off a claim for VOLOS catches him late. Wagers: Win and exacta box with 'Independence War' Aqueduct Rave 8: RICORIAOTA -> Speed of the race amplified by swith to speed rider in Lopez. Should have no problems controlling the race from start to finish without having to be asked for his best in winning this. Wagers: Win and cold exacta over 1,4 Good luck...
has there been any word on williams kitten's next race? i thought he was going to be entered in the risen star because they didnt want to stay at gulfstream...any help???
Mickey, Thanks, and I really like your approach and advice. Alan, I think you have posted one of the classic Formblog posts of all time. Really made my day. Thanks,
Thats great to hear that Bob Black Jack is training so well for his return to the races. He has the class and talent to run big first time back, and I'll support him with that fast work heading into a 7f race which is his best distance. Aplha Kitten was looking like a reallly special talent last year, and I remember looking forward to betting her to beat Stardom Bound, only to learn of the injury. That work time is pretty quick and I can't wait to see this one return. The 1:18 and change work for The Ususal QT has to cause concern if the March 6 Kilroe Mile is really the target. As with Kip Deville sometimes when a miler is pushed beyond his limits it takes a lot longer to recover. While The Usual QT can get longer distances I think he is a turf miler and should stick to that game. There's nothing wrong with being a miler, is there?