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HG 163 (Calder 2yos)
This week's HandiGambling 163 exercise is the fifth race from Calder Race Course, an entry-level allowance race for juveniles at one mile.
Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan." Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified. In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. Past performances are available on the previous blog entry.
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
Let's scratch #7 Sir Bacchi.
I found this race rather challenging, and will warily key my top selection in exactas.
#3 - Peace At Dawn has several angles in his favor. He'll go two sprints to a route in the third start of the form cycle while adding blinkers, and he may have enough pedigree (broodmare sire won the Breeders' Cup Classic) to handle the added distance. The son of Peace Rules showed a nice amount of agility when winning his maiden first out at 4 1/2 furlongs at Calder back in June, and he finished well along the rail after a good trip in the Jack Price Juvenile last time out. He seems to have some tactical speed, and may work out a track and pounce trip under Eibar Coa.
#8 Flatter This ran well last time out as he was asked to go two turns in his first start following a four month rest. The recent bullet workout allays fears of a regression, and the lightly-raced son of Flatter has some of the better speed figures in the race.
#5 Shotgun Duty won his maiden at this distance three back by a wide margin, and you can forgive his subsequent defeats. He had a little bit of trouble on grass two back, and he just missed last time out despite an awkward beginning. He'll also add blinkers for this start, and shouldn't be too far off the pace when the real running begins.
#6 Fly by Phil dominated an off-the-turf maiden race back in September, but he didn't return to the worktab until November 8, and he then was off another twenty days before he recorded another published breeze. It looks like this gelding has some ability, but I'm not sure if I want to take a short price (morning line favorite) on a horse facing winners for the first time after a freshening.
#1 Barry's Money has yet to finish first in his career, and he tired badly after pressing the pace going 5 1/2 furlongs last time out. He may try to grab a forward spot heading into the first turn, but there seems to be other speed that would make his task a lot more difficult on the front end. His Beyers pale in comparison to those of the top contenders.
#2 Our Repent overcame some traffic difficulties in winning his maiden around two turns on October 31, and you can give him a break for not handling grass in the Appleton last month. He has picked up the pace in his recent training, and a hot pace up front would enhance his closing kick. He looks like an interesting prospect.
#4 Oyster may wind up the pacesetter after being on or near the lead in his last three starts. His lone victory came going seven furlongs in the slop against $12,500 maiden claimers, and he might be in a bit steep from a class perspective.
Here's how I'll play it:
$50 Exacta: Peace At Dawn - Flatter This (3-8)
$25 Exacta: Peace At Dawn - Shotgun Duty (3-5)
$25 Exacta: Peace At Dawn - Fly by Phil (3-6)
Best of luck to all:
Will be back tomorrow with a look at some interesting stakes previews as well as some questions and comments.
thanks to cayman and tencentcielo for the kind words and suggestions. i originally wanted tencentcielo to pick my race for me since he said he wanted to head to tampa bay downs with hg 164 but i guess my message was not relayed in time. here's wishing everyone good luck!
Steve T, What do you think of Square Eddie in the Native Diver? I'm wavering between him and Mast Track. I started looking at him because he was an uncoupled entry with Lava Man. I figured Lava Man might not be ready after he was off for so long, but he sure could keep Mast Track and Tres Borrachos honest, which could help Eddie. But, now Lava Man probably won't run. I know Square Eddie hasn't run the distance. He didn't get a chance to last year when he had a setback in Jan. and couldn't properly prep for the Derby, but he seems to be bred for it. Third start of the form cycle, bullet works and gets Gomez. He shouldn't be too short a price even if Lava Man scratches. How is the rain affecting the winning running styles out there? Annie
Cayman Thanks for constantly updating the HG events....and also for next year (2010) can you also do a top ten every week? as for tonight...I am sure one of the online sites must have it...I haven't tried but how about this website...: http://www.hkjc.com/english/index.asp
HG 163 Recap: Our results resemble this week's cards at HOL. Terrible, although I must admit hitting the pick 6 today on a $8 ticket and then laughing at myself for playing it when I saw the payout. I digress.......... We sucked completely as a group. FRANKIE M @ TOYOTA is our winner with a $100 WIN bet. That's right, not an exacta in the house, and we don't need to discuss the TRI or SU either.slewpi also had $100W on the 6 but Frankie M was first in line. So, Frankie give us a race for Wednesday and let's get this ship back on course. HG results can be found here: http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Al3a-2Lsqg-udDBCZlg4eTlVSW5FeWE4cUJpRHhnR1E&hl=en maybe....... HG Top 10: Van Savant $10,112.59 billg 8,465.00 Mathieu 7,198.00 dale 7,023.35 wilson 6,721.00 zan the man 6,033.20 bobc 5,747.00 ray gordon 4,844.60 jim peregoy 4,791.90 Steve T 4,770.00
Steve, Did you forget it rained about an inch on Monday too? That course cannot take any rain at all. There might not be any turf racing the rest of the meet at this rate. Whacky, That Pick Six payout is an all-time low in Southern California. I should know. This time last year, the previous low was set when it paid $123. (which i hit on a $4 ticket) The cards are just pitiful. Ugh. tencentcielo
Is there ANY freaking way i can watch the Hong Kong races today/tonight!?!?!?!?!??!?!
Van Savant Great consistency and great job in the HG's. I assume you're matching the paper picks with real money, no? Just think, if you were betting at ten times the HG amount, you would have 100 dimes (I think, but am not certain, that a dime in gambling terms means $1,000). Anyway, really-terrific job! alanh In my post about the Delta race I was not criticising the track-merely that the assigned BSF's always seemed unusually high, and virtually never repeated. I'm quite certain Delta Downs is far better, and more fun to go to, than my "home" track-GG Fields.
Frankie M @ Toyota, Congrats on winning the HG. It would be okay to wait until Thursday for the HG if you desire. Especially if you want to pick a race from the Fair Grounds. :-) Just to remind everyone, NYRA will not be running after this weekend until the 26th. Hollywood Park and Golden Gate are closed Wednesday as well. Annie, I love SQUARE EDDIE in the Native Diver. I think he sits the trip behind TRES BARRACHOS and MAST TRACK. He makes his move as they turn for home and pulls away late. I don't like NEKO BAY at all in this spot. I think there is value in the late pick four today at Hollywood. It looks rather easy to me: 5 / 3 / 6 / 3,4,7 and here are a couple of spot plays at Aqueduct today: Race 4: #12 MANETI Race 6: #7 BACKCOUNTRY BOY (BOTH parents won on the inner and he should love the stretchout.) Good Luck everybody from a soggy Southern California! tencentcielo
Oh, Frankie M., If you're looking for a full field race for HG 164 I see the entries are up for TB Downs for Wednesdays card.How about a fourteen horse AOC on the grass? Or a full field 2YO MSW on the grass? Or maybe a 12 horse Farm Pet race? Gotta love Tampa Bay Downs. Alot of tracks in this country could take a lesson from them on how to run a track.
Okay people enough moaning about short fields. You want full fields? I got your full fields right here! Step right up to Tampa Bay Downs Opening Day: Race 1: 12 entries 2: 9 3: 12 4: 9 5: 10 with 4 AE's 6: 10 7: 10 with 1 AE 8: 9 9: 10 with 4 AE's 10: 7 (?) 11: 12 We got your .50 Pick 4's and .50 trifectas. We got your dime supers and your rolling pick 3's. And for you complete degenerates we have TWO High 5's and a Pick 6! Have a blast!