12/11/2009 10:58AM

HG 163 (Calder 2yos)


This week's HandiGambling 163 exercise is the fifth race from Calder Race Course, an entry-level allowance race for juveniles at one mile.    

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."   Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.  In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference.  Past performances are available on the previous blog entry.

I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place.  The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are.  I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.

Let's scratch #7 Sir Bacchi.

I found this race rather challenging, and will warily key my top selection in exactas.

#3 - Peace At Dawn has several angles in his favor.  He'll go two sprints to a route in the third start of the form cycle while adding blinkers, and he may have enough pedigree (broodmare sire won the Breeders' Cup Classic) to handle the added distance.  The son of Peace Rules showed a nice amount of agility when winning his maiden first out at 4 1/2 furlongs at Calder back in June, and he finished well along the rail after a good trip in the Jack Price Juvenile last time out.  He seems to have some tactical speed, and may work out a track and pounce trip under Eibar Coa.

#8 Flatter This ran well last time out as he was asked to go two turns in his first start following a four month rest.  The recent bullet workout allays fears of a regression, and the lightly-raced son of Flatter has some of the better speed figures in the race. 

#5 Shotgun Duty won his maiden at this distance three back by a wide margin, and you can forgive his subsequent defeats.  He had a little bit of trouble on grass two back,  and he just missed last time out despite an awkward beginning.  He'll also add blinkers for this start, and shouldn't be too far off the pace when the real running begins.

#6 Fly by Phil dominated an off-the-turf maiden race back in September, but he didn't return to the worktab until November 8, and he then was off another twenty days before he recorded another published breeze.  It looks like this gelding has some ability, but I'm not sure if I want to take a short price (morning line favorite) on a horse facing winners for the first time after a freshening. 

#1 Barry's Money has yet to finish first in his career, and he tired badly after pressing the pace going 5 1/2 furlongs last time out.  He may try to grab a forward spot heading into the first turn, but there seems to be other speed that would make his task a lot more difficult on the front end.  His Beyers pale in comparison to those of the top contenders.

#2 Our Repent overcame some traffic difficulties in winning his maiden around two turns on October 31, and you can give him a break for not handling grass in the Appleton last month.  He has picked up the pace in his recent training, and a hot pace up front would enhance his closing kick.  He looks like an interesting prospect.

#4 Oyster may wind up the pacesetter after being on or near the lead in his last three starts.  His lone victory came going seven furlongs in the slop against $12,500 maiden claimers, and he might be in a bit steep from a class perspective.

Here's how I'll play it:

$50 Exacta:  Peace At Dawn - Flatter This (3-8)
$25 Exacta:  Peace At Dawn - Shotgun Duty (3-5)
$25 Exacta:  Peace At Dawn - Fly by Phil (3-6)

Best of luck to all:

Will be back tomorrow with a look at some interesting stakes previews as well as some questions and comments.