12/29/2017 1:02PM

Happy New Year!


Here's hoping everyone has a safe, happy and profitable New Year's weekend!

There are some fantastic races on Saturday. Here are a few opinions:

Laurel - Race 5 - #2 - Bioterp (10 to 1 Morning Line)
Bioterp has mostly competed on turf over the past two years, but she has hit the board in her last three dirt races, including a good runner-up effort behind the undefeated Angel At War in her most recent effort (see below).

Bioterp's best asset might be her good tactical speed. Renaissance Rosie and She Rolls project as the pacesetters with Bioterp tracking nicely in the second flight. Here's hoping for a similar trip as her last run.

I'll bet her to Win at 6 to 1 odds or greater and will use in multiple-race exotics with the in-form She Rolls.

Gulfstream - Race 5 - #5 - Honovi (15 to 1 Morning Line)
DRF Handicapper Mike Beer disagrees with my selection of Honovi in the H. Allen Jerkens Stakes.

I state my case in our video preview:

I'll bet Honovi to win at 10 to 1 odds or greater.

Laurel - Race 7 - #2 - Vertrazzo (8 to 1 Morning Line)

Vertrazzo ran surprisingly well at a big price last time in the Smart Halo Stakes.

The speedy juvenile filly was engaged in a three-ply speed duel and held on quite well for third behind Take Charge Paula, a filly that returned to win the $75,000 House Party Stakes at Gulfstream with a 76 Beyer Speed Figure. One of the horses that finished behind Vertrazzo, fifth-finisher Almond Roca, came back to grab the $50,000 Sandpiper Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs by 9 1/4 lengths with an 82 Beyer. 

Here are the concerns. Vertrazzo may have to duel with other speeds on Saturday and it remains to be seen whether she'll be as effective at seven furlongs as she's been at shorter distances.

I won't take any less than 8 to 1 in the win pool and will use her in exotics with horses like Enrage, Gibby and Limited View.

Gulfstream - Race 7 - #5 - Momentiempo (15 to 1 Morning Line)

I made Momentiempo my best bet in this week's episode of "Out of the Gate." You can find the "Best Bets" segment, including my analysis of this division of the Tropical Park Oaks at the 34:48 mark.

I'll play Momentiempo to Win at 8 to 1 odds or greater. Storm the Hill is another that is worth consideration in single and multi-race exotic bets.

Gulfstream - Race 10 - #11 - Promotional (5 to 1 Morning Line)

Two thoughts on the Via Borghese Stakes.

First, I do not like logical contenders like Beauly (made her reputation when fourth at 54 to 1 in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl) and Galileo's Song (hasn't won since 7/2/16 and has burned tons of money in the interim).

Second, I thought Promotional ran quite well last time out when second to the talented Apple Betty in the Grade 3 Dowager Stakes at Keeneland.

Promotional is a late-runner that needs some pace, but I'm guessing the fractions should be honest enough for her at this 9 1/2 furlong distance. The main concern is that she doesn't show a published work in the last three week and that is just unlike trainer Tom Proctor.

I'll play her to win only if she drifts from her 5 to 1 morning line odds.

Best of luck this holiday weekend!



Is the top 25 Beyers of the week coming back?
Robert Hosier
Here are the top 25 winning Beyer Speed Figures (12/23/17 - 12/28/17):
1. Giant Expectations - 106 - Grade 2 San Antonio Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - 26Dec17-3SA
2. City of Light - 102 - Grade 1 Malibu Stakes - 7 Furlongs - 26Dec17-8SA
2. Strike Power - 102 - Md Sp Wt 42k - 5 1/2 Furlongs - 23Dec17-7GP
4. Bowies Hero - 101 - Grade 2 Mathis Brothers Mile - 1 Mile (Turf) - 26Dec17-6SA
4. Tapa Tapa Tapa - 101 - OC 100k/NC -N - 1 Mile 40 Yards - 23Dec17-3TAM
6. Harlan Punch - 99 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 Mile - 23Dec17-5AQU
7. Unique Bella - 98 - Grade 1 La Brea Stakes - 7 Furlongs - 26Dec17-7SA
7. X Y Jet - 98 - Grade 3 Mr. Prospector Stakes - 6 Furlongs - 23Dec17-10GP
9. Zanotti - 97 - Queens County Stakes - 1 1/8 Miles - 23Dec17-8AQU - 
10. Do Share - 96 - Gravesend Stakes - 6 Furlongs - 23Dec17-7AQU
11. Jay's Way - 95 - OC 50k/N2X - 1 1/16 Miles - 26Dec17-4GP
12. Arizona Moon - 93 - Cave Creek Stakes - 1 Mile - 26Dec17-7TUP
13. Behavioral Bias - 91 - OC 40k/N2X -N - 6 Furlongs - 23Dec17-9FG
13. Scholar Athlete - 91 - OC 100k/C -N - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - 23Dec17-4TAM
13. Wynn Time - 91 - Alw 43120N1X - 6 Furlongs - 23Dec17-7FG
16. Avanzare - 89 - Clm c-(17.5-15) - 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - 28Dec17-2FG
16. Clutch Cargo - 89 - Alw 57000N1X - 1 Mile - 23Dec17-4AQU
16. Susie Bee - 89 - OC 75k/C -N - 1 Mile (Turf) - 26Dec17-10GP
19. He's Got Talent - 88 - Clm 30000(30-25)B - 7 Furlongs - 26Dec17-2GP
19. Red Lightning - 88 - OC 40k/N1X -N - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 26Dec17-5SA
19. Sir Navigator - 88 - OC25k/SAL25k - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - 23Dec17-5GP
19. Valadorna - 88 - Tiffany Lass Stakes - 1 Mile 70 Yards - 26Dec17-9FG
23. Five Palms/Forest Mouse (dead-heat) - 87 - Alw 35800NC - 1 Mile - 24Dec17-5SUN
23. No Distortion - 87 - OC c-40k/N2X - 1 1/16 Miles - 26Dec17-10FG
23. Social Roy - 87 - OC10k/SAL8k - 6 Furlongs - 28Dec17-8GP
*Avanzare was claimed for $16,000 by trainer Karl Broberg from Tom Proctor.

*No Distortion was claimed for $40,000 by trainer Eddie Kenneally from Larry Jones.
Here's the replay of Giant Expectations taking down favored Collected in a curious edition of the San Antonio Stakes:
Here are the past performances for Giant Expectations:

AdamB from Twitter requested the lifetime past performances of Greinton. Daily Racing Form doesn't have the entire past performance collection archived. Here's what I have:
Congrats to Annie and Gerry V for winning the last two HandiGambling exercises. 
The weekly scoreboards are available for download at bottom of this blog post:
This week's HandiGambling exercise is Sunday's Blue Norther Stakes at Santa Anita.
Free Past Performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.
Here are the rules:
HANDIGAMBLING version 2017:
Let's remember WHY we began the HandiGambling races in the first place.
The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses and why we're betting them the way we are. We are not asking for a novel but SPARE A SENTENCE OR TWO outlining your HANDICAPPING ANGLES and/or THOUGHT PROCESSES about WAGERING.
1. Start your post with HG or HANDIGAMBLING to find your entry in a thread.
2. You have a mythical $100 to wager in whatever format you choose that is available for that HG race. Anyone going over the $100 limit will be DISQUALIFIED.
3. Post your WAGER and ANALYSIS to the blog prior to the start of the designated race. SIGN OFF WITH YOUR NAME/OR MONIKER AT THE END OF YOUR POST. Remember that posts may start as 'anonymous' or an 'alternate name'. You MUST SIGN YOURSELF AT THE END (even if it is the same) This enables the scorekeeper to identify who you are.
4. (1) ONE ENTRY per person for the Handigambling contest. If you have multiple email addresses, use just ONE for contest purposes. Multiple entries will be cause for disqualification.
5. Separate your analysis from the wager and use the PROGRAM # in your wager. Just like you would do in a real wager. No horse names.
6. If any of the rules listed above aren't met, the wager is subject to review which can lead to disqualification of your entry.
In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. Dan reserves the right to approve or deny any entries.
The winner will receive a "60-Card Quarterly Formulator Past Performance Plan"
As an example :
HG 2017
The speed in this race are #1 Alpha, #2 Beta, and #8 Ocho. I like the works for layoff horse #5 Cinco who can sit off the pace. Lots of speed in here, so this could set up for a closer like  #6 Six Flags and I like the trainer's stats in these conditions. I’ll put the closer over the speed.
HG wager:
$10 EX   6 /   1,2,5, 8  = $40
$5 TRI   6 /   1,2,5,8  /  1,2,5,8  =  $60
Total $100
Thanks Dan!
Good luck!
Copy of HG 12 10 17 Valedictory.xls52.5 KB
Copy of HG 12 26 17 The Malibu.xls52.5 KB
HGBlueNorther.pdf178.25 KB