01/01/2011 1:40PM

Happy New Year!


Happy New Year!

Let's take a look at a few of today's stakes races from around the country:

Tropical Park Derby (Grade 3 - Calder - Race 11  - Turf Condition GOOD)

Newly-turned three-year-olds get an opportunity to go long on the grass in South Florida.  Because the race is graded, it wouldn't be surprising if the winner tries/returns to dirt in the near future ("Derby Fever" sometimes is too much to resist).

SWIFT WARRIOR looked very, very good in winning an entry-level allowance race at Calder on December 10.  Racing at the tail end of the field going into the first turn, Swift Warrior steadily crept up on his opponents, made a smart four-wide bid on the far bend, and inhaled the leader in upper stretch.  Stakes-placed on dirt, this will be his acid test on the grass, but he's improved significantly ever since his connections stretched him out in distance, and the feeling here is that nine furlongs won't pose a problem.  He will need some pace to attack, however.  Aside from PRIVATE PRIZE and HALO'S THUNDER, there doesn't appear to be a great amount of speed in the race. 
RACING APTITUDE has won two straight over "Good" going, and it looks like he'll get some cut in the ground once again.  The hero of the $100,000 Appleton Juvenile Turf for Florida-breds in November, Racing Aptitude seems a bit more tactical than Swift Warrior, and could get the jump on the top pick turning for home.  Note that the runner-up from the Appleton returned to graduate (via disqualification) yesterday on turf at Calder with a 72 Beyer. 
I LOVE IT may have been compromised by a lack of pace last time out at Belmont, but he did make up some late ground to finish fourth, and the connections of that day's winner thought enough of the horse to ship him out for the CashCall Futurity (Rustler Hustler finished sixth). 
KING CONGIE moved forward after stretching out on turf while Private Prize may control things up front.
Selections:  Swift Warrior, Racing Aptitude, I Love It

Daytona (Grade 3 - Santa Anita - Race 8 - Scratches and Track Condition N/A):

I guess we'll see if REGALLY READY is a "new" horse on the turf.  Trained by Steve Asmussen, Regally Ready blitzed a field of allowance horses in his grass debut at Churchill Downs, and could be the main speed in the Daytona.  While he looms the horse to beat, the downhill turf course has a unique layout, and Regally Ready will really have to be on his game in order to not only defeat some solid turf sprinters, but to handle the course. 
I prefer QUICK ENOUGH, a rejuvenated former claimer that took the Grade 3 Monrovia Handicap at Hollywood back in October.  He owns a previous win going down the hill (back in 2008), and we can make excuses for his two recent setbacks.  Two starts ago, he competed in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint, and may have been in a bit steep.  Last time out, he chased the talented Cost of Freedom over cushion track, and simply couldn't overcome that one's tactical advantage (in Track Record time, no less) in a short field.  Quick Enough has the speed to shadow Regally Ready.  I think he can outkick that one in the lane.
Selections:  Quick Enough, Regally Ready, Dance With Gable

Interborough (Aqueduct - Race 3 - Track Condition FAST):

It's probably folly to try and beat odds-on favorite NICOLE H, and it's probably even more ridiculous to attempt to do so by also playing against second-choice MEESE ROCKS, but I'll take a very small stab in the Interborough with a longshot.
Nicole H has been good in her last two races in New York, but I thought she had things pretty much her own way last time out while Meese Rocks stumbled at the start and was far back on the turn.  She might simply be too fast for these horses and obviously must be used heavily in multiple-race wagers 
Meese Rocks rarely, if ever, changes leads in the stretch, and that simply aggravates me.  It hasn't seemed to bother her, however, as she's compiled a 12-7-3-0 record on the main track.  She must break alertly from the inside post today, and she got off to an awkward beginning in her most recent start.
It's quite possible that BOB'S DYLAN is overmatched here as she's been beating up on inferior competition at Finger Lakes, but she has some good early speed, and I'd like to see her rider place her aggressively out of the gate.  Last time out, she was involved in a three-ply pace skirmish while down on the rail, and was pocketed on the turn before splitting horses with a winning bid at the quarter pole.  She's won four of her last five races at Finger Lakes while beating past stakes-horses (perhaps over the hill?) like Weathered, Gold for the Queen, and Lisa's Booby Trap. 
Selections:  Bob's Dylan, Nicole H, Meese Rocks

Enjoy the weekend!

mattcoll More than 1 year ago
Dan, The Sunshine Millions is inscrutable to me every year. can you post the pp's of the winners over the last couple years and let me know if you see an angle? I think it has something to do with trainers pointing to the race for a while, and has less to do with form, class, track preference (the three factors that have done zero for my handicapping). Matt
Annie More than 1 year ago
Yeah, that's a surprise. ALAN SHUBACK is voting for Goldikova for HOY. LOL Shoot, they've figured out that if we click on "Reply" to anyone, our name and e-mail would automatically be filled in and we had no captchas. So, now, still no captchas but name and e-mail address have to be typed in. :( Annie
Laura More than 1 year ago
Pippin, Please email me at lross@ironmaidensthoroughbreds.com with your email address. Our IM Syndicate accountant, Blackstone skillfully keeps a spreadsheet of our horse's and how they are doing. Also, I'll be putting together pedigree profiles on each horse and sending them out in the next week, once we know everyone whose involved. I'll also have photos of the horses that are at Payson or possibly racing at Gulfstream in the stakes races. Laura No CAPTCHA. I feel slighted.
Annie More than 1 year ago
Blackseabass, Yes, the MKB horses have, indeed, been en fuego. I ascribe it to their great pride in having been chosen for the MKB out of so many many horses. :) And, as SR Vegas has alerted us, it looks like LAURA LAWDUCK'S Shadow Warrior is next up, on Friday at GP. Once again, he's the only MKB in the field so that should be easy, right? Come on SHADOW! Make it 6 for 6. :) Annie
Annie More than 1 year ago
Of all things, last night I had a dream that #26 from the MKB list was going to win the Derby. Of course, this morning I was anxious to look at the list and see who is #26. LOL! It turns out to be SR VEGAS. However the winner was still not revealed, because SR has acquired THREE horses: Dominus, Cal Nation and Razmataz. Do you people think I may be spending too much time on the MKB? It's even invading my dreams. LOL! Annie
Annie More than 1 year ago
Kyri, That's funny, because both ADULARE and STORMBERG almost made the cut for the MKB. When it got down to the maidens, it was a very close call. :) Annie
SR Vegas More than 1 year ago
Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow...Yes Folks , in Las Vegas! I'm looking out over the golf course behind us and it is now a White Christmas :) ..of course, nothing compared to you all in the East/ Northeast ..Stay safe.
SpartanTom More than 1 year ago
Pippen, very sorry to hear about your dog; it is truly like losing a member of the family. I also enjoyed the story about how you acquired the dog. good luck with PH. Laura, sorry I missed the chat; I was home but od'ing on football. Happy New Year everyone. ST
Curt V. More than 1 year ago
Laura, Boy, I sure am tempted to be @Gulfstream this year, along w/Tampa & the associated Dog Tracks, & Harness, that I always am able to locate, even if they aint publicized{they simulcast, & I find them}, to the chagrin of my company. "Where you going...?" "Ah !! I found a Dog Track about 70 miles....." It seems I'm goona miss that Clam Bar....Circumstances beyond my control will preclude my trip this year unfortunately, {as I told Mike A.}{& he was getting an invite}, that this is goona be my 1st missed trip in 25 years.....Blame it on Rio.........If things happen to change, I'll let you know..........& the Cherrystone Clams are on me.......& don't forget to see & take a picture of Cigar & the Slewster himself.........{Statues}...........
SR Vegas More than 1 year ago
Cynical Sidney I LOVED Snakes on a Plane, BUT Snakes in The Lane is just PRICELESS, LOL! You go Girl ! ummm, I hope I'm not jumping to a conclusion, just an elimination? 50/50 chance I may be right? ....Besides, we LIKE more Blue Thongs here :) captcha free!
blackseabass More than 1 year ago
Curt V , I don't know about the sunshine millions numbers you posted . They might be close ? However I can tell you for sure that Georgie Boy wasn't the only Cal-bred winner the last 2 years. Bold Chieftain won the sunshine classic last year. I had him,I think he paid about $11.80 He's the Guy that wins about 60% on Dirt & about 50 something % on Turf or Synthetic. Other than that I couldn't say for sure. I'm pretty sure they run 8 races per year so 7x8 = 56 I think you're missing 14 races in there somewhere babalouie. Laura, I wish I could but I can't right now . I guess I'll have to settle for virtual Florida. My trip last year went awry when my Sis' kept finding more & more to do on her house remodel & ate up the 2 weeks I had allocated for fishing in Florida. Someday . MikeA, When My eyes went on me 5 years ago I got headaches from looking at the form with glasses on . I decided to find some ways to play with less reading. one way was to follow along with certain trainers another was to learn to REALLY be able to read the board. Your recent post made me go back to my list and see how those guys were doing lately . Some were flying under the radar back then but have become more well known since then . Jamie Ness(he just flat wins a lot and has for awhile now, His horses used to pay $12 now they pay $6) ,Ralph MartineZ , Blackstone's Devito (3 for his last 8), Shireffs . Some others I liked were Hushion, Miyadi, Adam Kitchingman ( especially with babies ). Aggie OrdoneZ (she's hit with 2 of her last 4 $18.60 , $10.60).With the right grouping of trainers a person can make money. The trick is like you say, to know the M.O. of the trainers winners. Trainers do go through ups & downs so you have to stay on top of that. A lot of trainers are like deer , they always get a drink in the same spot.If you know the spot you can drink with them. All barns have to make money to stay around & some of them do it by betting. BTW your not full of sheets except when you downgrade the possibility that someone could learn something valuable from a book. I mentioned a checklist of factors that indicate live horses about a month back. Since then I've mentioned about 6 or 8 horses that were "CLEAN", all but one ran 1st or 2nd. The one that ran 3rd missed by a long nose in a 3 way photo at 10-1. That cuts across every track. Any Trainer. Any Distance. Any Surface. Any Level. Any Jockey. Any Day. Its UNIVERSAL. If a "clean" horse is spotted it doesn't matter if you've ever made a bet on that circuit, don't know the horses on the circuit or any track biases, etc. It doesn't matter if the trainer is 1 for 34 in some category that applies to the race. That horse is LIVE and no they aren't always the favorite. Twilight Meteor $32. The reason I repeat this is because if I was cryogenically frozen for 20 years (it snowed all day and night yesterday lol ) when I thawed out I could go to the nearest track and win even if every trainer,jockey or horse I ever knew of was dead and gone. 80 % of that checklist has been studied and booked to death. Its in books & its not wrong ! Its misused or misunderstood. The 20% thats not in books is an improvment on the thoughts of Robert Saunders Dowst,the only Public Handicapper to ever show a meet long profit selecting from every race in a paper.(public handicappers are good.selecting every race is asking a bit much, I have no doubt that LSD is good) So the factors are all known. They can't stand on their own and be profitable, but when combined in a cocktail of factors they are formidable. I can teach any 10 yr old kid or novice of any age thats never been to the races ,but can do basic math, to do pretty good in less than 1 hour. I've done it . I've tested it with relatives kids and friends that were neophytes many times. Will they have the overall knowledge of some of us around here ? NO,but they'll beat the pants off most of the people at the track in 1 hr of learning. Not from a book but from 50 books combined & digested down to one page. There is more than one way to win at the races.
Curt V. More than 1 year ago
Update revision on Sunshine Millions:{Sorry, Me bad...} My last post included up to & thru 2009..In 2010, it was Florida 4 & Cali. 2> -So the all time total is Florida 33 & Cali. 15..= 48 races -Last 3 years total is Florida 15 out of 18........or Florida 15 & Cali. 3.... -Same Bat results>same Bat station>same Bat channel>same Bat advice...
Curt V. More than 1 year ago
Mattcoll, Re: go to www.sunshinemillions.com Here's an undisputable angle, that can' be topped, unless you are a deep "Blackseabass" Fisherman.>>Trust me... The last 42 races or 7 years, Florida Breds number of wins is 29..... Cali breds are 13................ However, over the last 2 years of 12 races>>It's Florida 11 out of 12 wins..........The sole Cali winner was Georgie Boy @ a whopping $6.60 for a deuce............ ***** That speaks volumes about Elimination>>Throw out the whole bunch of Cali's & narrow your search.........***Florida breds are in a different league...........****** the Major League....
Annie More than 1 year ago
Cynical Sidney, LOL!!! ...................................................................... MKB UPDATE: ANNEM'S Archarcharch is scheduled for the 100K Smarty Jones Stakes on 1/17 at OP. Good luck, Anne! Annie
cynical sidney More than 1 year ago
Snakes In The Lane? Dutrow horse tests positive for undisclosed medication..... Perchance a bite from one of those pesky cobras, so prevalent at Aquaduct this time of year?