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HandiGambling Test, Some Questions
Just a random question...does anyone know the Beyer pars for a 35KN2L ckaimer at Belmont on the main track for 3+? :) I don't think my DMR numbers will transfer. :0
Since January 1, 2003, there have only been two races at six furlongs for three-year-olds and up with a 'n2L' tag between $35,000 and $50,000. The average winning Beyer for those races was an 85, but that's just too small a sample to draw conclusions.
I was looking at the sales results from Keeneland and noticed a few hips that had incredibly low prices, an El Prado, an Awesome Again and an Afleet Alex. As this is a select session, it is my understanding that these horses are chosen for a high level of pedigree and conformation when being placed here. So, please if someone here knows the answer, How could these horses sell in the $10-15,000 range? There were a few other hips under $100,000 but those 3 were the lowest.
Turn Back the Alarm
There is one crucial variable which you are failing to consider: soundness. When you see incongruously low prices for yearlings with attractive pedigrees, especially in the first book, you can bet that they failed to vet out. The (remarkable) truth is that many expensive yearlings have questionable vet outs (chips, iffy throats, etc.), so, needless to say, the truly inexpensive ones are very dicey propositions.
I agree with Tinky. The first day of the Keeneland September meet is a boutique sale, and it's all or nothing. The athletic, good-looking, pedigreed yearlings that pass all the vet tests will go for seven-figures. Nobody wants to spend that kind of money on a horse with a perceived flaw.
My filly R Betty Graybull won at Belmont in Sunday's 5th race. I thought the victory was rather impressive and the time wasn't too shabby for NYB MSW. Any chance you could post her Beyer for that race?
Thanks, and I really love reading this blog!
Your filly ran a 73 bsf.
After a very tough trip in her well-bet debut, R Betty Graybull had a much easier journey en route to the impressive maiden score. It looks like she has talent, and she may be able to factor in some statebred stakes races down the line. Congrats!
Dan! April Frost had a workout @ Keeneland! She was working steady in March and April but never raced. I almost deleted her from the watch list. Any info on what injury she may have had?
It's good to see her back on the tab, but she's probably a long way from racing. Considering her layoff, she may be worth watching for the first race or two before you bet her.
I haven't heard anything specific concerning an injury, but I'll let you know if I find out more information.
Do you have any information on Hi Flyin Indy (A.P. Indy-Go For It Lady by Mr. Prospector) and American Dance (A.P. Indy-Quiet Dance by Quiet American). Who is their trainer; breeder; when will they make their debut? Any information is appreciated.
Hi Flyin Indy (A.P. Indy - Go For It Lady, by Mr. Prospector) was bred by Dumar Horses, LLC and was foaled in Kentucky on March 14, 2006. He sold for $725,000 to Sheikh Mohammed at last year's Keeneland September yearling sale. He is a half-brother to Grade 3 sprint winner Spring Meadow. I believe he is trained by Kiaran McLaughin, but am not 100% sure. Hi Flyin Indy is a product of the A.P. Indy - Mr. Prospector 'nick,' one of the most potent crosses in the game, and it looks like he has been working in company with Keep Thinking (A.P. Indy - Denebola, by Storm Cat), an unraced juvenile that Darley purchased for $2.4M last September.
American Dance (A.P. Indy - Quiet Dance, by Quiet American) was bred in Virginia by Edward P. Evans, and was foaled on April 15, 2006. He was withdrawn from last year's September sale.
Again, I'm not 100% certain, but I believe Todd Pletcher is the trainer. American Dance is a half-brother to multiple Grade 1 route winner Saint Liam, and Grade 3 winner Congressionalhonor.
Both horses should be set to debut in New York in the next few weeks.
Some homework for you, or others if you know. Whatever happened to a couple good turf milers from last year: Remarkable News and Trippi's Storm?
Remarkable News was retired following last year's Breeders' Cup, and was slated to enter stud at Ilala Stud in Australia. He injured a stifle, however, and was forced to miss the entire 2008 breeding season. If he recovers in time, he should be ready for the 2009 Southern Hemisphere season.
Trippi's Storm hasn't worked or raced since the Breeders' Cup. A gelding, it's possible that he'll return to the races, but I don't have any further information on his status.
Hi Dan, love the blog.
I'm a huge Kodiak Kowboy fan since way back to last years Juvi. Have not seen any works for him since the Kings Bishop. Do you know if he is ok? Are they trying for the BC Sprint with him? Prep in the Phoenix maybe?
Larry Jones told Jack Ireland of The News Journal that Kodiak Kowboy is still on tap for a run in the Breeders' Cup Sprint. Jones is looking at either a prep race at Belmont, Philadelphia Park, or Turfway.
Talk to you tomorrow.
Hi Dan: can you please post the past performance beyer Figure for Major Malone at penn national on September 6, 2008. Thanks. Seeram
And speaking of The Monmouth, I will not be wagering on this race, because my local simulcast place does not carry this track, but if it did, I would have to go with Big Brown in the top spot. I will freely admit that I am lost when it comes to Stakes-class racing on the turf. It is almost beyond me. I have my days (luck) when I cash, but for the most part, I am blind to this type of racing. But with that said, I do believe Big Brown to have an edge here. He appears to be within the parameters of class for this field. Shakis (Ire) fits this also. Proudinsky (Ger) and Drum Major can figure here too. My picks are as follows: 1st - Big Brown 2nd - Shakis (Ire) 3rd - Proudinsky (ger) 4th - Drum Major If I were betting this race, I would use all four in an Exacta and Superfecta Box. I would also put a small Win bet on Drum Major (in case he decides to finally put it all together). That's it. Tread lightly with these picks.
john r; I catch your drift, and I agree with some of your assessment, but I don't believe this FormBlog has been around for that long (maybe 18 months, or so). As for posting picks, I love to. It keeps me on my toes. And those who don't, well, I understand that too. We wouldn't want to be too homogeneous, now would we? Vitriol, snide remarks, and argumentative tendencies are what makes The United States of America a great place. Yeah, it can become boorish and tiresome, but it ultimately makes us better and stronger. I suggest the same formula, when applied to FormBlog, is applicable. Good night, good man.
I wanted to remind people that the Arlington Futurity is tomorrow and Capt. Candyman Can is running. He was an impressive winner first-out at Saratoga, trained by Ian Wilkes (former assistant to Street Sense's trainer - memory, sorry). Tomorrow being a prep, and Wilkes coming from the old school (not a bettor's friend), can't recommend a bet on him (but you might want to try and beat him on the win end, maybe key him in 2nd or 3rd?), but with what he showed in his debut, winning may come anyway. Must-see TV, in any case. I hit the late p-4 at stockton, after losing the first leg. 3 of 4 paid $200+ I wonder how many on-track tickets, which would have cashed, got discarded after the longshot winner in the 1st leg? I never would have known, but it just appeared in my account. Good luck tomorrow, everyone.
Terry F, I just remembered your comment about Joe Bravo the jockey being put on Joe Bravo the horse. When I first saw the horse entered, I did immediately think that would be funny. It reminded me of when Lafitte Pincay rode the horse Pincay a couple of times. Annie
vicstu, It's funny that we were both writing at the exact same time. Posted one minute apart. I have nothing, whatsoever, against vigorous debate. It is often the only way to change things and certainly was a big part of the formation of our country. I just feel it needs to be done without vitriol (I guess that was the word that set me off in the first place) and I just couldn't see vitriol being held up as an example of a great American virtue. If that's all we have to offer as a people, the world is in serious trouble. Which it is, by the way. Anyway, I admit that I often view the world through rose colored glasses, but sometimes it's just too horrifying to see it the way it really is. I'm a bit under the weather this morning which probably explains why I'm a little more sensitive than usual. So, as you said, Let's get back to the races. Annie
Cayman, Thank you! That's right, I didn't see a play from you. Well, if you would have seen the races, you would have seen why there was so much chalk. Nothing else looked very good. Btw, I saw a comment from you awhile back, where you said, "It's very hard to win at this game playing $10 per race." If I may make a suggestion - you are a very good handicapper and maybe if you limit the number of races you play and concentrate your disposable resources on just a few races, you'll be able to get some larger returns. The races you really feel confident about are the ones where you should put the majority of your money. Good luck, as always. Annie
The Monmouth Big Brown IEAH Stakes: I'm going to try to beat BB in this spot. Don't know how he'll like the off going. He'll have plenty of company on the front end and he'll face real closers for the first time. 1: NIGHTSCAPE, he's in this race why? Tranier dropped entry ticket in wrong box? Pass. 2:HOTSTUFANTHENSOME,Loves Monmouth and gives his best every time out, only best is not quite good enough here. Underneath only. 3:SHAKIS, Spa horse doesn't care for the soft going and I expect to scratch.J/T are a cash machine. Underneath only if he goes. 4:BIG BROWN,Will KD hold him back again with the speed to his outside? He shouldn't but who knows with KD.Lots of other ?'s here too. Big step up in class going against elders. Soft going and plenty of speed signed on. Can't take the 6/5 odds. 5:KISS THE KID, been keeping some good company the last couple of years and will be pressing BB all the way around.Look for him to try and press KD against the hedge while they track Get Serious. Can't see him lasting til the end. 6:PROUDINSKY,is his own worst enemy in the paddock and has had hoof problems.Frankel says he's right now.LOVES the off going and will stalk a hot pace.Solid record at the distance.Major contender. 7:DRUM MAJOR, strong closer here if he goes. Not afraid of a little give in the ground.Comeback race was better than finish positon as he had plenty of trouble. Lots of pace to chase and should be right there at the end with a good trip. 8:GET SERIOUS, reborn on the weeds and the jockey change.Got the mile and a sixteenth easy last time. Can he do the extra hald furlong with the pressure behind him? iffy at best, but for a dime super........ 9:FAGEDABOUDIT SAL, won't get an easy pace and won't make my tickets. 10:BALLONENOSTRIKES, gives you an honest effort every time and could light up the tri or super on the bottom. Never wins, but always manages a check. 11:SILVER TREE, wily vet gets stuck with an awful post. He'll have to really work to get postion. Castro is really going to have to work out a trip here. Soft ground and distance are no problem. Using dan's magic $100: $10 WP 6 $20 $5 WP 7 $10 $1 EX box 6,7,8 $6 $1 TRI 6,7/4,5,6,7,8/4,5,6,7,8,10,11 $40 .10 super 4,6,7,8/4,6,7,8/4,5,6,7,8,10,11/4,5,6,7,8,10,11 $24
g or g Are the "sheets" difficult to put into use or do you just prefer the 'thorograph' better. How about ROI comparing the two. Frankel lives by the 'sheets' I am told....He loves his horse today against the" IEAH 'wonder horse:" We'll see !!! ds
Van Savant, I was re-reading my post to you from early this morning, and I realized that it was a bit harsh. It's just that in my eyes, vitriol inspires anger, anger inspires hatred, and hatred inspires--well, war, road rage and lack of compassion for other people. Your comment obviously hit a real sore spot with me, but I apologize for ranting on you like that. It's really not my style, and I probably read more into the comment then you even meant. You really do seem like a nice person. Please accept my apology. Annie