HandiGambling The Preakness

vicstu, Ok, he was about a neck behind... he was also going wider on that turn, lol. It makes no difference to me. If Nehro was in the race, I'm not sure that he would've won, but I guarantee he would've galloped out several lengths past everyone afterwards. PS: I said Animal Kingdom was spent.

BSB, Yogi, Sorry, I have to question these numbers and, more importantly, the ultimate interpretation. 1- BSB, fyi, both Last Tycoon and Six Perfections were French. 2- Yogi, I found some errors in your spreadsheet... Silic and Val Royal were both French horses. Just eyeballing the winners, I come up with a tally of 14-13 for the Euros in the Mile and have them winning 7 of the last 12 runnings. 3- In the Turf, I have it 10-3 in favor of Europe since 1999 (1 extra for the dead-heat, which was a split). Yogi, how do you count Conduit as an American? 4- Yogi, there are some more questionable designations in your Filly/Mare Turf column. It's a little dicey to really label Starine, Lahudood, and Intercontinental as Americans. They all have European roots, having first raced in Europe and were sent to American barns at various times. The same could be said for many of the "Americans" on the various lists, including Kotashaan in the Turf. 5- Interpretation: this is the main thing. Do the Europeans make up the majority of runners in any of these races in any given year? That's an important consideration. You can say that the Americans are about "even" with the Euros, but the Euros are only sending a handful of horses here each year. Also, if you look at the last 10-12 years, the Europeans have been sending their "C" team... maybe even their "D" team... and still winning our important grass races. This extends beyond the Breeders Cup too. Look at last year's Arlington Million... Debussy? He's nobody. D-team at best. Imagine if they still actually sent their best runners? Sea The Stars could've won that year's Turf running backwards. Sorry, I'm with Shuback on this one.

Yogi, I hear ya. If he was mine he'd be running every 3 weeks. Shamrock Bend , sorry I misunderstood what you were looking at. For your next step Lemon Drop Kid & Birdstone come to mind. Editors Note ? I think he may belong in the unsuccessful in the 1st 2 legs category but maybe he skipped the preakness ?

Vicstu/TBTA: Sorry, but I'm still puzzled. The point of my earlier post was the Shack got a break because he ran a very slow 3/4s, after a quick first quarter. IMO he did that because Castanon was satisfied with his position, and he wanted to go as slowly as possible to save as much as he could for the finish. It was the jockey's doing. He conserved the horse's speed and energy, and this time it worked. I believed that was contrary to Vicstu's theory of letting the speed horses run. Yet TBTA wrote: "He came out of the gate motoring and at no time did the jock slap a rating hold on the horse. That is what is meant when a person says a horse was "throttled down". "Just because the horses ran the next quarters slower than the first does not mean they were throttled down. If you look at Shack, he's on a nice rein, not fighting the jock and cruising along at his natural speed. The jock is not only not rating him, he's also not encouraging to go any quicker. He was letting the horse put himself exactly where he wanted to be at exactly his chosen speed." Are you saying the the horse himself decided (a) what speed to go and (b) where he wanted to be? Of course Castanon "rated" Shack after Castanon achieved the position he wanted. I agree the key was he was able to do it without fighting him, so Shack had energy left and he was able to win. That won the race for him. But it seems to me you are giving all the credit for slowing the pace down to the horse, and I can't agree with that.

C, Sorry for the Conduit mistakes. Believe it or not, I did actually know that he was a Euro. Rectumitis I guess. Actually, I did too much of a rush job as I tried to get the post made last night. As for Silic, she came to the states 12 months before the BC Mile that she won. That should have been plenty of time for her to be corrupted by NA methods. I guess you would call Canani's methods NA. Val Royal came to the states in 1999. She won her BC race in 2001. That's 25 months. She was also trained by Canani. Starine was here for 17 months and 11 races before her win. Frankel was the trainer. Lahudood only 4 months and 5 races before the BC. McLaughlin was the trainer. Intercontinental was here 19 months and 12 races before her BC. Frankel was the trainer. I guess this too is a matter of interpretation. My own is that with that much time and that many races with a NA trainer makes them NA horses. None of these went back to race across the pond. If it waddles like a duck and quacks like a duck, it's probably a duck.

Hey Dan, Could you post the lifetime PPs for Morine's Victory? I read on a blog how he was rescued from a kill pen. That was one helluva hard-knocker. Thanks. http://www.brooklynbackstretch.com/2011/05/12/victory-indeed-morines-victorys-narrow-escape/#comments

Interesting rundown on Shackleford's pedigree: Cut and paste this link into you browser and hit enter- http://www.paulickreport.com/features/the-lane-s-end-weekender-pedigree/the-lane-s-end-weekender-pedigree-shackleford/

P Ensign, others, and all Yes, I paid for dinner. I always feel bad about betting horses someone else has picked. I don’t know. I feel like I don’t deserve to win money if it’s not the result of my own reasoning or judgment. I could make a lot of money off the horses Mike A tells me about but I rarely bet them. I guess it would kind of feel like cheating on a test to me. I didn’t even buy the Form on Saturday (Sorry, Dan!). I didn’t intend to bet much if at all on Saturday, and I didn’t need the Form to bet the Preakness. I knew I wouldn’t be in an environment in which I could concentrate, and at this point in my handicapping studies, I need to concentration plenty when looking at the Form. However, I played Chinglish; first, because Mike liked him; second because I occasionally play hunches based on silly names. (I lived in China for ten weeks one summer teaching U.S. law to Chinese law students and the term/ concept of “Chinglish” provided much entertainment during that time.); third, I remember watching Chinglish run at Gulfstream this winter (Again, because of the name I distinctly remember paying attention to him during that race.) while watching turf races with Mike. I played Chinglish to win and in some exactas. I won on the win bet. However, I hardly feel as if it was the result of any ability on my part so I figured out to dinner on Chinglish we would go. No worries. Mike has provided me with plenty of nice breakfasts, lunches, and dinners. (He’s an exceptional cook, too.) I hope everyone enjoyed Mike’s story. I know Mike and therefore I know some of his sarcasm didn’t come through on the blog as would have if you listened to him telling it. I would add my own version but he pretty much covered it. I have much more affinity for Pimlico, however, than he does so my version is a bit different in that regard. Yes, it might be run down but it’s kind of like part of home to me so I like it nonetheless and I am thankful it exists at that location in Baltimore rather than another commercial center, industrial complex, etc.. I just wished that the majority of the folks at Pimlico on Preakness day would think about Maryland racing for even just one more day during the year. That’s wishful thinking. I am an optimist though. Ask Mike A. That’s probably one of the reasons I’m “easy.” LOL.

Yogi, Big Drama has made me money about 9 out of 10 times I bet him. Only failing to cash me in the Preakness. I'll pin my hopes on Big Drama. When is he running !!??!! He's been something of a Sandy Koufax for me. Regarding Euro superiority. Its pretty much a wives tale or urban legend. I showed Shuback that the BC GRASS races were fairly well evenly divided overall with American trained horses having an edge in wins. He didn't like that because it didn't fit the wives tale he was spreading so he round filed it. They are really quite comparable on American grass. We don't really have much gauge on Euro grass because our trainers don't usually bother to go there. The few that do have had a little success with horses that were not exactly household names over here. That is not saying that there aren't good euro grass runners . They just don't have an intrinsic edge like many believe . At least at the highest level in the BC . The quality of American bred racehorses is fine. Its kind of a red herring to deflect attention from the real problem . To much take out to cover the to much purses to cover the to much money that babies cost at auction and the to much money for dayrates for public trainers. 50% reduction in all of the above would save the game, solve the horse shortage and cure the common cold. If anything has declined its the quality of the trainers . Back in the day when the good horses pulled their owners buggies all week and on saturday raced a sulky or on the flat or both the average trainer was probably a better horsemen. Your horse was your car back then . Everybody knew something about horses.

Dan, Can you post the career PP's of Brass Hat? I'll put them right next to perfect drift and lava man in my gelding hall of fame. Thanks, Matt

Curt V - thanks - I'll do some searching.

MikeA , great story about your trip to Pimlico. A good friend of mine went several years ago . He came back and told me never to do it and he's an Irishman that can drink with the best of them. He brought me back a T-shirt and some Preakness / Pimlico history booklets. In one it says that they just threw the track down over the natural topography just like all those Euro tracks. They don't call it OLD hilltop for nothing !! LOL. Maybe the reason the track is so narrow is because they used to run 2 & 3 horse fields in 4 mile heats back when they built it. LOL. Great story and nice pick with Chinglish . I wish MD would have came up and got me a fishcake back out of that! LOL. Shamrock Bend , What Tencent wants is for people to write their bets the way you would call them at the window. With numbers. Additionally he would like the wagers labeled HG wagers and seperated from the text of your analysis if you make one. In regards to Stranger Danger in the Belmont. I believe about 10 of the last 41 fit that description. Some happened in years without one or both the Derby or Preakness winners competing. Something like Van Savant said about The Preak Freaks with their unusual circumstances. Drosselmeyer > no derby or preakness winner in field Da' Tara > Big Brown incident Rags to riches > Ky Oaks winner Filly No derby winner in field Sarava > Commendable ?? not sure if he was new to TC trail ? Colonial Affair > Preak winner broke down Derby winner failed AP Indy > Morning line Derby favorite (scratched) Not sure if D or P winner competed ? Go and Go > euro shipper Not sure about D&P winners ? Danzig Connection > No Preakness winner Derby winner 3rd ? Creme Fraiche > No Derby winner (spend a buck) not sure about tanks prospect Conquistador cielo > I know this is shoddy work by my standards. Maybe some of the other formbloggers can fill in some blanks or make corrections ? I'm going off the top of my head. C'mon CurtV "I don't feel like looking it up right now" LOL. Its the Dentist today for me.

Curt, wilson, I guess it is a loaded question... I just want to make it clear that I wasn't comparing campaigns or anything beyond the single race in isolation. Shackleford is receiving a ton of "props" for his Preakness, which I think is getting to be a little overboard. He really wasn't that great. At the same time, Rachel Alexandra was criticized much too harshly for running at least as good, if not stronger, than Shackleford. PS, wilson: I'm not convinced that this year's group, including Animal Kingdom, is much better than the 2009 crop. Although he didn't run in the aforementioned Preakness, I'd have to guess that Summer Bird was at least as good as Animal Kingdom is at this point. Mine That Bird as well. What has Animal Kingdom done thus far that is so great? I'm not convinced that he's that good. Maybe down the road, but he still has more to prove to me.

Mike A, Pimlico is a nightmare, now only used ~6 weeks a year.  The entire place needed to be rebuilt when I moved to Baltimore almost 25 years ago...and they have made no improvements since then.  I went to Pimlico once last year to watch a friend run his horse in a race and once this year, just to the ticket office to buy Infield tickets for my son.  And I only live about 2 miles north of the track.   As for the Preakness...it is an event that brings money to our economy and puts Baltimore in the news, but a day at the track is only for kids to party in the infield.  I'm very happy just dropping off people in the morning and picking them up after the races/party, but otherwise...please let me watch it at home.  And please don't make me go to a neighbor's Preakness party either!  The only time you'll ever get me into Pimlico on Preakness Day is to watch my future Derby winner run in the race. This is Steve Haskin's excellent recap of the Preakness - it includes Dale Romans describing his eventual race winning strategy: http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse-racing-steve-haskin/archive/2011/05/23/haskin-s-preakness-recap-shack-and-awe.aspx “You go slow and you let them in the game,” Romans said the day before the Preakness. “When I had Roses in May, I always told the jock to let him roll and kill off everyone behind him. He had speed and wanted to go on, just like Shackleford. When I sat down with (jockey) John Velazquez before the Dubai World Cup (UAE-I), the natural inclination was for Johnny to slow the pace down. I said ‘Bull; this horse is fast and could keep going and they can’t keep up with him.’ He just gunned him out of there and let him go fast the whole way. It looked like Choctaw Nation (a powerful closer) was going to blow right by him in the stretch, but he hit a wall, because he had worked so hard just to get up to him.” I also found this article thru the wonderful Equidaily website: http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20110521/BUSINESS/305220047/Troubles-tarnish-IEAH-s-big-plans This news is no surprise to those Formblog regulars who remember the discussions we had here regarding IEAH and TAG Virgin Islands Inc. at Triple Crown time 3 years ago.  Still, it is very sad.  The Equine Hospital across the street from Belmont closed on March 1st.

vicstu I feel that everyone will fall into that trap of Zito selling his horse as the one to beat... just like Ice Box yes, but look at what Dialed In has done. He looks good on paper. He looks good in the charts. He looks good to the average player. Dialed In will be the betting choice in the Belmont. The Shack vs Ak will not happen. IMO Yes, it is the sales pitch already on VS and NBC. I just don't think that it is worth the risk to run the Shack!! Dale is a smart trainer. Money is to be made down the road. Rest the colt... I am leaning towards others in the Belmont. It is early and we all shall see who will show up. Yes, I think that AK will be tough, but he might be a little bit tired. I also like Astrology. Lightly raced and with the right trip, he can get it all. MMM is also a ??? We are a long way off from June 11th. Time will tell us many thing's. Whackymacky Out!!!

C, I too had my doubts, but the Fisherman's assessment is correct. The Euros have dominated in the Big Turf since 1999, but overall it's a push. https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnX0bPBysI-LdDBnUnlQMnM3ajFPajF6ODBNRHRUNXc&hl=en_US&authkey=CM2N45cJ

BSB, A big YES on Big Drama. C, I am not debating that Shack was spent. That fist pump you are referring to was when Jesus turned back and to his side and pumped fists with Johnny V. AK was 1/2 length behind at that time, and never was on even turns. What gallop out are you watching? Either way, he never got past Shack. It was a comment on the horse's resolve...not which horse would be better at 12f. I think you know I like AK in the Belmont Stakes.

Alan, Great picture! Your son is your spitting image. Mike A, I'm going to make a copy of your post and just hand it to people who constantly ask if I love horseracing so much, why don't I go to the KY Derby. The only way I would ever go to either the Derby or the Preakness is IF AND ONLY IF, I had primo seats that would isolate me from the drunken idiots who could care less about the horses. That is one reason that the Breeder's Cup is so awesome. For the most part, the attendees are there for the racing and not for the "spectacle". Good thing the Den Mother wasn't around when those people tried to hijack your seats, you know how much trouble she can cause. :)

CM, TBTA explained what I meant perfectly... I am not for letting a horse run like a damn fool for the entire race... I simply want them to let the damn horse run to use their high cruising speed to spread the field out , then relax, then ask the horse for their run. The key is settling down between the 4f call and the 6f call IMHO. I have posted about it often. Of course, sometimes you have a horse that can just take off and keep going, but they all eventually tire and eventually reach their limit. Every once in a while we get a Precious Passion. The thing is, they don't try to make one run closers speed horses, so why try to make a horse that runs best on a light rein something he or she is not. As exhibit A I submit Rachel A as a 3 year old and Rachel A after they tried to make her something she was not...namely, a stalker with a late kick. Way to go again, Steve A. At least they let her do it her way in the Preakness...and I am not injecting myself into the Rachel A vs. Shack Preakness debate.

Whackymacky, “No need the run "The Shack" in the Belmont. ...He has earned a break and should rest up for some racing down the road.” Dale Roman’s is a hard working trainer and deserves a lot of credit for finally getting a win the classics. But I would be surprised if they passed on the Belmont. Roman’s used the same tactic in this year’s Preakness that almost worked for him last year when he sent First Dude to the lead in Preakness 135 and he came home in second place, three-quarters of a length behind Lookin At Lucky. Romans wheeled First Dude back in the Belmont where went to the lead but came home in third-place, three-quarters of a length shy of winner Drosselmeyer. Dan Illman in his Preakness 136 analysis nailed it on the head: “(Flashpoint looms the pacesetter). With Flashpoint not expected to stay the entire journey, Shackleford may inherit the lead at some point and he has enough pedigree to last this distance. Perhaps he'll improve by sitting just off the early leader.” And that’s exactly what happened. Shackleford ran a gutsy race to capture the second leg of the Triple Crown but, based upon his run in the Kentucky Derby, I don’t believe that he will have the same level of success in the Belmont and the distance of the Preakness may be the optimum limit of his competitiveness. “Thanks for the update on MMM. I did see the article and was just flat out amazed!!! Have you ever seen this problem with shoes on a horse in such a short time in such big races?? MMM might need to skip the Belmont...” I don’t recall a horse having this much problem with losing his shoe and it may have had an impact on the race as Mucho Macho Man was not up close, like he was in the Derby, to apply pressure to Shackleford. Also if Nehro had been in the race to apply pressure to Shackleford in the stretch I believe the race outcome would have been different. Astrology ran a good race but he was no threat to Shackleford who had an uncontested lead for most of the stretch. “Shack really ran big, with AK really having no excuse in my mind on winning. JV needs to answer that question.” It was disappointing to see them come up short. With the Preakness a sixteenth of a mile shorter than the Derby, Johnny Velazquez should have made his move sooner but that was only the second time he had ridden Animal Kingdom and he is still learning how to best to ride him. I don’t believe that we have seen the best of Animal Kingdom yet and he’ll get better and better the more he races. Having a regular jockey will be a big plus and that is why I hope Velazquez retains the mount for the rest of the season. “Do you think that some people were rooting against the Owner of AK?? He didn't make too many friend's after the KY Derby, and some wished he would faulter because of being such an ass... JMO” Not only were people rooting against Barry Irwin but some of the stories I read were rooting against Animal Kingdom too. Jerry Brown of Thorograph was livid that Animal Kingdom won the Derby. http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/horse_racing/one_expert_bet_against_kingdom_WSRX5UNsKfNEB0njJebZVJ?fb_comment_id=fbc_10150196625612248_16537725_10150197026022248#fbb11ef8090134 However, most of the stories I read were positive and wanted Animal Kingdom to win. Calibob had a nice post on the blog before the Preakness and I used portions of it in my Preakness write up. Dan Illman had an excellent post about Animal Kingdom’s pedigree: http://www.drf.com/blogs/animal-kingdoms-pedigree-throwback I don’t see anything positive for the sport in rooting for the Kentucky Derby winner to not win the Preakness.

I just looked at Watchmaker's rankings..... We are going into our 6th month of racing and these are the best that we have? Ouch. Crown of Thorns; Sidney's Candy; First Dude (Pitiful) Havre de Grace; Switch; Blind Luck (These are pretty good) Animal Kingdom; Shackleford; Nehro (These MIGHT develop) Royal Delta; Plum Pretty; St John's River (These too MIGHT develop) Gio Ponti; Winchester; Get Stormy (Probably won't even test the Euros) Aviate; Aruna; Shared Account (Probably shouldn't re-test the Euros) Big Drama; Aikenite; Morning Line See anyone there that you want to pin your hopes on?

Where are they? Hold Me Back - retired to stud at WinStar, stands for $6,000. Imperial Council was sixth in an optional claimer at Gulfstream on Jan. 22. He worked once after that on Feb. 9 at Payson, and so far that's the last I can find on him. Piscitelli ran for s $20K Claimer tag at Gulfstream on April 24. He wasn't claimed and is currently trained by Lisa Lewis. He hasn't worked since the race nor is he entered anywhere. Wynning Ride was fifth in the Bayakoa last December. She raced for 3 years, maybe she's retired. ***** Everyone: I've had a couple of requests to review the upcoming weekend's stakes races for Memorial Day weekend. I don't mid doing the work of handicapping and typing up the horse commentary if y'all show up. Please let me know if there's an interest in a handicapping chat for Friday Night starting at 9:00 PM. Laura CAPTCHA: Theicea L-Terms - well, yes, it's on my terms, lol

BSB, I agree that Big Drama would be the only choice for grabbing by the tail. Now if we only knew what their plans are for him. No activity makes me wonder............. Why bring him back for only one race then back to the farm?

CurtV , I knew you'd say that. LOL. C , here it is . BC mile A 15 > E 10 Not sure about six perfections (i think invader) or last tycoon. BC turf E 15 > A 13 Johar deadheat makes extra winner BC F&M turf A 7 > E 5 BC turf sprint A 3 > E 0 BC juv F turf A 3 > E 0 BC juv turf E 3 > A 1 Totals A 42 E 33 Unknown to me 2 Not exactly domination by either locals or invaders but American trained horses have more wins. Since we know that we can take advantage of the percieved Euro bias on occasion. Especially the Euro Hype. Don't get me wrong I've had plenty of Euro winners and have nothing against them. I just like to play myth buster sometimes.

Formbloggers, thanks for the congratulations on the HG win. Feels great to win one. Romans views on pace and shape of race are interesting. It goes against many 'cappers basic axioms, but makes total sense. I have seen many of his charges over the years employ the same tactics as Shack and win at decent mutuels. Dan, I would like to select the Met Mile for the next HG race. But if the rules suggest that the race must fall during this calendar week, then I would nominate Race 6 at CD. 2 year old MSW. Baby races! Whatever you decide, works for me! Laura, thanks again for hosting the Preakness chat. Was great fun. Learned there about Jonah's huge weekend score. He has been very modest about not sharing with the rest of the blog. SR Vegas and Alanimal, thank you for your kindness. Owenized

You gotta have heart all you really need is heart When the odds are sayin' you'll never win thats when the grin should start You gotta have hope mustn't sit around and mope nothin's half as bad as it may appear wait till next year and hope You gotta have heart miles and miles and miles of heart Oh yeah its fine to be a genius of course but keep that ol' horse before the cart 'cause first you gotta have HEART Win or lose . Just a little something for the formbloggers to keep in mind.

Wilson, I think Big Drama would have put some much distance between himself & the '11 version of the Preakness, that they would have needed Binoculars to find him..& then of course he couldn't even out break Rachel for the lead, & proceeded to to get buried. Of course 1:55 flat to a 1:56.2 means nothing either. Are you still moaning about Rachel's HOY award ? As far as this years version..At best mediocre..as it was one of the SLOWEST in history...Get over it.

C , I looked up the results for the BC grass races sometime last year. I just scribbled it down on a scrap of paper which later got tossed. The Baby races & turf sprint of course haven't been around long and the F&M turf not much longer than those. Off my memory it was pretty even in the mile & turf. You can see them if you search the BC race names. So Commendable wasn't a stranger. Thanks Scianc , my sister had Shack so she was quite happy with the result as well. Nice pick from both of you. I scored good in the derby and at least got a few fishcakes in the preakness. I can take being a little bit wrong. Congrats again.

BSB, If you're talking about the Preakness, I got a semi-fishcake. No surf & turf. Maybe some imitation crabmeat. Did have a $42.00 horse @Calder early, which won by 13 lengths. Came away w/ a no win/lose day..BUTTS: Thanx 4 asking........Lol.>Now if Astrology runs 2nd, I get some shrimp...........I had him wheeled front & back, WPS & several tri's w/him 1-2..What's a player to do ? Next week ? Very close, BUTTS:no cigar..... Felton, We hear this every week about Beyer figs. The Figs are more than the final time. Maybe "C" will re-post his explanation for the 1000th time, or better yet, Google Andy Beyer Figs.. Edward & some C, Maybe the track crew snuck out in the middle of the night, & moved the finish line back 100 yards......Lmao.....& I look at every race differently...& according to Motion, his horse was one tired equine after the Preakness. They could have gone around the track 2 more times, & AK wasn't catching Shack. So, I'm not sure what race you watched.......Of course, not so, if Motion is a liar.......As far as the Belmont, I'll wait & see who actually enters..Edward.. I had Shack in the Derby, not in the Preakness, who knows who I'll bet in the Belmont........Oh wait..I did say Alternation........as long as I get permission from the pedigree experts, as to who can make 1 1/2 miles..........There is a book, right ? Tencent, Once Dan post the rules, it's all systems go, just as the Fisherman proclaimed...No excuses then..Only those who make a habit of not reading the posts, & only write posts themselves, will be penalized.......

C, Now you know that's a loaded question..I'm totally w/you about the Female Rocketship..Rachel's campaign in 2009 was second to none, & that includes the greatest of all-time, the Slewster, within parameters I suppose..Okay make it second for Rachel...Still, one great horse accomplishment..male or female..of c-Horse some resident experts disagree, BUTTS: who cares ? OK..#1 for a female..& top 5 for all horses...Her HOY speaks for itself..& the bottom line is they pay the Big $$$$$$$$$$$$$$ for crossing the line 1st{First} & all those come from behind "All-mosters", can kiss her A**.......Take all those -24 seconds final quarters & stuff 'em where the sun don't shine. Not you, butts: you in general....If she ran a 22+ opener, they'd need a 23 final just to get in the same area code..........Of course it's Rachel..I'm prejudiced..LMAO... Help out Felton will ya'.........You're the best explaining Beyer Figs.......You're like the E.F. Hutton of Beyer Quandary's............LOL>> BSB, Sorry Charlie !!! This is my busy time of year for work & relaxation& ZZZZZZZZZ...It's all yours...As much as I would like to help you out, & I also don't want to do the labor..You started it..You finish it........Heeheehee.............Sorry Charlie !!!!!!!!! I'm into just reading you buddy..Keep up the excellent work..You are the best..If I were to critique the Fisherman, I would have to expend numerous laborious hours, & for what ? To find out you were right anyway.......rofl..

..re The Rapture Since The Rapture has been rescheduled to October 21, 2011...there will be no interfering on Breeders Cup weekend Nov 4th-5th .. either we will or will not be here, eh?

".....oh which reminds me the 8th at Belmont......doesn't matter.....you wouldn't believe me anyway. Mike A " That's ok Uncle Mike, in Laura's chat room someone else believed in you and now he's laughing all the way to the bank :) I totally enjoyed your recap of Preakness Day with Laura Lawduck .

owensized ..great job on HG this week, winner-winner-chicken dinner! Laura's chat room WAS alot of FUN! Jonah, I look forward to when you next post :) How's that Alcatraz swim shaping up?

TBTA ...LOL! I almost spit the Diet Pepsi across the keyboard with your Den Mother remark !

This from Keith L: Where are they? ...could you inquire of Dan on formblog for me, I'd be greatly obliged to learn the status of Hold Me Back, Imperial Council, Piscitelli, and Wynning Ride. 'bymess evol'

Ive got so much things to say right now ive got so much things to say.......Robert Nesta Marley...1980 first of all, this is the only blog I follow "consistently" I dont post often, but I read regularly many topics are far beyond my realm and some even prompt me to research and deeper analysis. many incite laughter, some disdain,..... some revive memories.. and many times , I have benefitted from information learnt here. sometimes what to do.....sometimes what NOT to do which brings me to HG Etiquette and rules What are they ? where are they posted officially? Are you saying if I violate these written and unwritten/understood rules , then I face sanction? Like a Death penalty ? DQ'D ? how does this encourage newbies ? I have noticed the broad spectrum and diversity here It is one of the strongest assets IMO solution : The HG Template..idunno fill in the blaks....add your comment.. a typical wagering ticket design may be utilised...Im sure some lawyer engineer designer can help out the blog if they care and know how. at least you'll be helping to speed up the lines at the track on any major day , now that they know how to form/phrase a wager thus .helping to bring fresh blood into the pool betting the latest incarnation of ...fill in the blanks driving UP the odds on....fill in the blanks Thats why I love This place Thats why I love this Game cant lose ...no chance...sure thing... a throwout... didnt handle the going didnt handle the track the slowest since... the fa..2nd fastest since... look, teach the children the truth how to win whats the MKB stable ...How do I join? what ? Cant I make a buck too? you guys are cleaning up...clue me in then again, maybe not me but someone else is it a private joke? continuing slewster......I have a champion in you...in that you feel make that , you know your slew....keep it up the Belmont stakes is the test of champions It is ,has been and always will be a matter of conditioning both of the victor and of the also rans... that said, betting the Belmont is not a test of champions but it still is a matter of conditioning.... do you want to root for .... can you put real cash into ....... thats why we sometimes vote against our own best interests its a tough race to win...to predict the outcome or even the unfolding.... bragging rights or bejamins....two different horses thats why I tried to research historical belmont stakes records..... with limited resources, I found that in the modern era of triple crown competition there is ample reason to be skeptical of the derby winner, rebounding from a preakness loss. (Thunder Gulch) would be more favorable if he had lost the derby and won the P. (Risen Star) think its like 2x in favor of the latter profile quick....name the last horse that ran in all three legs of the triple crown winning only the belmont....not many ,eh? Belmont has always been for fresh faces,...old tired ,fatigued, battle weary hors de la guerre or something like that ....show me the fresh blood ... the classy ones will look beaten but not disgraced... the wounded and the unmasked will be blowin in the wind at Big Sandy that said there was a typo on my previous which someone was kind enough to point out . thank you that should have been The Most High Sir Shackleford, Lord of Belmont Big Dawg, ( Ask Soldat and Flashpoint- 2x ea) (Ask Dialed In, ex-Big Dawg , 2x) wait Ask the whole Animal kingdom.,they know themselves... Big Dawg for now.........

Dan Can you pass this on to someone in the News department of DRF? http://www.paulickreport.com/news/the-biz/suffolk-downs-can-t-fill-third-card-of-live-meeting/ I know it is a minor track, but isn't DRF supposed to be the "paper of record" for the industry. I found nothing about this on the website.

When you compare what Shackleford did in the Preakness to what Rachel did you need to consider the competition faced. I think its clear that Shackleford beat a better Derby winner and likely beat a better field. It should be noted also that Shackleford ran in the Kentucky Derby, while Rachel ran in the Oaks. There is a big difference and no one can tell me that had Rachel run in the Derby that year that she would have 1)won the Derby, 2)run in the Preakness, or 3)won the Preakness. She did win the Oaks and then beat Mine That Bird in the Preakness, which is something to be proud of, but she did not endure the rigors of running both the Derby and Preakness, much less the Belmont. On the other hand she was a filly. But it looks like both Animal Kingdom and Shackleford will be running all 3 Triple Crown races and that takes something special. I'm sure both of them would enjoy being freshened and run in the Haskell or Travers on perfect rest, but these colts are apparently running the entire Triple Crown series and if so then Horse of the Year will likely be decided in The Belmont Stakes on the racetrack. I'm all for it and its good for the sport for these now nationally known colts to square off in the rubber match in a couple weeks on national TV. I'm sure a lot of people will tune in to see which horse proves to be the better, head to head on the racetrack. "Can't Wait!", as Bart Scott would say.

CM, Not that Vicstu needs me to explain his posts, but I think you either read the post wrong or didn't see what we did in the race. The key to understanding the post is a favorite maxim, "let the damn horse run fool", which is exactly what the jock on Shackleford did. He came out of the gate motoring and at no time did the jock slap a rating hold on the horse. That is what is meant when a person says a horse was "throttled down". Just because the horses ran the next quarters slower than the first does not mean they were throttled down. If you look at Shack, he's on a nice rein, not fighting the jock and cruising along at his natural speed. The jock is not only not rating him, he's also not encouraging to go any quicker. He was letting the horse put himself exactly where he wanted to be at exactly his chosen speed. IMHO, you can't ride a horse like Shack (or Presious Passion, Hard Spun, Rachel Alexandra, or any other free front running type) any smarter than that. So, it really is no contradiction to complain that the horse ran a fast first quarter, relaxed on the lead and then lost. Because if that had been the case, it would have been that the horse simply couldn't get the distance when facing a superior animal with a great turn of foot coming into the final quarter mile, NOT that the horse didn't use his speed to distance himself from the pack. Although it is two different horses, watch Presious Passion's races. The jock lets the horse break and then run however he wants too. A couple of years ago, this style provided many wins for the horse. As he stepped up in company, he started to lose. Then, age caught up to him. But the rider still knows well enough to let the horse put himself where the horse pleases.

BSB, I believe Commendable had run in the Derby. Could you show me, in some detail, your study concerning American versus European grass horses in the Breeders Cup races?

Calvin, The funniest and most ironic part of your link to Jerry Brown being all bent out of shape about Animal Kingdom is that he picked 4 other horses that he liked (out of a 14 horse field) and only one of them, Astrology even hit the board. I especially got a chuckle out of his pick of Sway Away. Re Mucho Macho Man's shoe problem Horses with thin walled hoofs often have a hard time keeping their shoes on. Couple that with a large striding horse with a big overreach and the situation is ripe for MMM to grab the back of his shoe and pull it off. I don't remember if it was MMM pictured on the front page of DRF with bell boots on, but that is a common protection for a horse with a tendency to overreach. Instead of the back hoof hitting the shoe, it hits the bell boot when the horse reachs forward with its back hoof. All my horses were turned out with bell boots to prevent that problem. For the $30 a set of boots cost, they pay for themselves when they cut down on extra "farm call" farrier costs. Heaven forbid the horse actually pulls a sensitive part of the hoof off in the process, then you have to pay for healing down time and a vet call. Again, disclaimer, I have no idea of the actual condition of MMM's feet, but in my experience, thin walled hoofs are harder to keep shoes on. But, if I were Kathy Ritvo, it would be in my best interest to protect the stud value of my client's horse, and I sure as heck would NOT say in public that my horse had thin walled feet. So, unless someone has first hand knowlege of the situation, we will probably just hear that MMM has bad luck with shoes, a nail came loose, he stepped on himself, etc.......and it could very well be that the horse just has bad luck.

Vicstu: You wrote: "How refreshing in 2011 to watch a two turn race where the speed was not throttled down in the early stages." I have to strongly disagree with you (and a few others) about this. Unless you consider only the first quarter of the race the early stages, how can anyone say that the speed was not throttled down? Check the fractions - after the first quarter, Shack ran the following quarters: 24.1 25.1 25.1 If that's not throttled down, I don't know what is. You then wrote: "And, of course, there are those complaining that the pace slowed down on the second turn. Guess what? The horse(s) on the lead can do whatever they feel comfortable with and can get away with." Correct me if I am wrong, and maybe I have misunderstood your previous posts, but haven't you been complaining about speed horses not using their speed? If Shack had lost we would have heard that rated when he should have gone on with it, or he let the closers back in the race by goig to slow, etc. I'm just trying to understand what you have been saying, because IMO you are contradicting yourself here. Mike A: I went to Pimlico once, 10 years ago, when Point Given won. We had seats near the finish line, upstairs, so I did not have to deal with much of what you referred to, but I remember saying to myself i felt like I was at Yonkers Raceway...........before the renovations for the VLT's. No trees, no grass, no outdoor saddling area. it's not a pretty place. New Yorkers are spoiled by Belmont and Saratoga. Other than Santa Anita and the old Gulfstream I haven't been to any track that compares to them.

"laura treated me to a seafood dinner at a favorite place of hers from het college days......as a thank you for Chinglish.....oh which reminds me the 8th at Belmont......doesn't matter.....you wouldn't believe me anyway. Mike A " you hit a 50-1 shot and let her take you to dinner?

Thanks guys. BSB, Half way through the stretch I thought he was going to get 2nd again too. At least you still caught something. It would have ruined my day had he gotten nipped at the wire.

vicstu, AK eventually pulled even with Shackleford on the gallop-out. Even enough for JV and Castanon to exchange a fist pump, anyway. It doesn't really matter, as AK was spent after the race. Curt, As I said, horses can occasionally win a race beyond their comfort zone. Rachel Alexandra was probably not at her best running beyond 9 furlongs, but she was able to win the Preakness. It's funny how so many people ragged on RA because Mine That Bird was gaining on her late, yet those same people are praising Shackleford like he's the second coming. Which Preakness front-running winner looked better to you?

Edward, My numerous posts now are simply a response to an ongoing bromide I have been posting for some time here about letting a horse with speed run. Like you, I like a fast horse. He need not be speedy, or a frontrunner, but I like a nice turn of foot and heart. I liked Musket Man a good deal. Hardly a speed ball. I have hit a few of these T/C tris and missed a few. Either way I come back swinging... I find your analysis refreshing. Keep posting. C, Shackleford won the race. AK never got past him in the gallop out. You are correct after a fast 4f he slowed it down, much like the Florida Derby (as you also pointed out). The horse has a funny way of going when he is put down to run, he keeps extending and getting lower...but he is all heart. He was drifting out, but once he switched back to his left lead he surged ahead. The bottom line is no one was getting past that horse last Saturday. CD was a different story. Maybe Belmont as well. What everyone is talking about is how Shack was not spitting the bit after pressing the pace at 4f in 46 and change. That is supposed to do many horses in. They are surprised how fast Jesus let him run early, they thought for sure he would get caught. That is what all the hand-wringing is over. Horse racing is full of dogma. One is that a horse like Shack never should win at over 9 furlongs, and that slowing the pace down is his best shot. However, slowing the pace down only works (IMO) for horses that are short for a particular distance. If he can get 9.5 furlongs, you let the horse use his speed. They did...but many are overlooking how he slowed things down before being asked for his run. This is a case of letting a horse string the field out, slow it down and then get the jump on the closers. Of course AK had too much to do. That is why you let the speed go and string out the field and force those horse to the back. He wasn't going to be up on 22 and change and 46 and change. Romans knew Johnny V would back his horse up off of the pace.

There were only two runs at 9F and none beyond, so here is the last main track stats: 8 ½ Furlongs (34) Record – 1:40.34 (Slew’s Tiznow, 11-27-2008) Fast – 1:42.73 Slow – 1:49.54 Average – 1:45.37 Average Deviance – 5.09 seconds Average Field Spread – 8.40 lengths Average Fractions – 24.06, 48.15, 1:13.08, 1:38.75 Running Style - F-11, S-11, C-12

No need the run "The Shack" in the Belmont... He has earned a break and should rest up for some racing down the road. AK and Dialed In will be 5/2 co-favorites in the Belmont. Zito will be high on his home turf. Calvin Thanks for the update on MMM. I did see the article and was just flat out amazed!!! Have you ever seen this problem with shoes on a horse in such a short time in such big races?? MMM might need to skip the Belmont... Shack really ran big, with AK really having no excuse in my mind on winning. JV needs to answer that question.. Do you think that some people were rooting against the Owner of AK?? He didn't make too many friend's after the KY Derby, and some wished he would faulter because of being such an ass... JMO Whackymacky Out!!!

30 DAY HOLLYWOOD PARK STATISTICS – MAIN TRACK SPRINTS Main Track Sprints - Overall 47% Frontrunners 24% Stalkers 29% Closers 4 ½ Furlongs (11) Record – 50.78 (Cosmic Queen, 6-15-2008) Fast – 51.27 Slow – 53.73 Average – 52.54 Average Deviance – 1.94 seconds Average Field Spread – 7.66 lengths Average Fractions – 22.59, 46.24 Running Style – F-9, S-2, C-0 5 Furlongs (3) Record – 55.98 (M One Rifle, 5-7-2011) Fast – 55.98 Slow – 57.92 Average – 57.00 Average Deviance – 1.20 seconds Average Field Spread – 6.67 lengths Average Fractions – 22.05, 44.88 Running Style – F-1, S-1, C-1 5 ½ Furlongs (10) Record – 1:02.09 (Gray Black N White, 12-5-2007) Fast – 1:03.35 Slow – 1:05.81 Average – 1:04.53 Average Deviance – 2.54 seconds Average Field Spread – 7.93 lengths Average Fractions – 22.28, 45.75, 58.12 Running Style – F-4, S-3, C-3 6 Furlongs (27) Record – 1:07.55 (Street Boss, 5-10-2008) Fast – 1:09.16 Slow – 1:11.91 Average – 1:10.86 Average Deviance – 3.46 seconds Average Field Spread – 7.40 lengths Average Fractions – 22.45, 45.84, 58.09 Running Style – F-16, S-5, C-6 6 ½ Furlongs (24) Record – 1:13.37 (Gayego, 11-30-2008) Fast – 1:15.75 Slow – 1:18.79 Average – 1:17.20 Average Deviance – 3.99 seconds Average Field Spread – 6.91 lengths Average Fractions – 22.41, 45.59, 1:10.60 Running Style – F-10, S-6, C-8 7 Furlongs (11) Record – 1:20.46 (Tribal Chief, 11-27-2008) Fast – 1:22.26 Slow – 1:25.33 Average – 1:23.71 Average Deviance – 3.31 seconds Average Field Spread – 8.98 lengths Average Fractions – 22.71, 45.27, 1:10.88 Running Style – F-2, S-3, C-6 7 ½ Furlongs (3) Record – 1:26.78 (Greg’s Gold, 12-22-2007) Fast – 1:29.06 Slow – 1:32.39 Average – 1:30.62 Average Deviance – 4.02 seconds Average Field Spread – 4.92 lengths Average Fractions – 23.35, 46.40, 1:11.40, 1:24.07 Running Style - F-1, S-0, C-2

To Taz and any other Crown the Cat owners on here. What a race yesterday! Bringing my 5 week old baby into the winner's circle was just fantastic. Hopefully she handles winners as well as she did maidens.

Just what I'm sure every Formbloggers has been waiting for... A picture of my son and his friends meeting Kegasus in his tent "home/stall" on the Preakness infield - my son is on the far right: http://www.flickr.com/photos/formblog/5752924521/sizes/l/ (Annie, just copy an...uh, never mind....listen to SR de Vegas's instructions...)

Hope everyone enjoyed their weekend......I've been absent for a few, let me catch up.... 1) Scianc 22.............Mario, your boy did it.......congratulations.....I didn't bet the race, didn't like it....which leads me to....... Vicstu Let me explain something.....First, Curt sometimes is more enthusiastic than he should be. I liked MMM in the Derby, thought he had a shot in the Preakness, but didn't bet the race. When I pick a horse I love them the day they run....I've had some favorites over the years....i.e. DR. Fager, but as a rule I like horses to win, so I make money. I do not fall in love with a horse and will never bet them for "old Times Sake". I passed on the Preakness......the race just didn't "sit right" with me, however try as I might I couldn't get Laura Lawduck to pass......she had money burning a hole in her pocket from an earlier race I did talk her into betting (Chinglish). So always remember....I take every horse on a race by race basis......the Derby this year set time honored tradition on it's ear......There was no way I was betting the Preakness......MMM at 5-1 didn't thrill me. Which leads me to........Pimlico To Alan and anyone else who lives or works in the great state of Maryland do not take what I'm going to say to heart......it's just an observation and the truth....... If they ever want to bring the Preakness back in line with it's glorious past I have a suggestion......bulldoze the grandstands and start over. It was my first trip to Pimlico......I had wanted to go many years ago, but my uncle kept talking me out of it......I think I know why. Maybe I'm spoiled......Belmont, Saratoga ( even as much as I loathe Aqueduct it's nicer than Pimlico) maybe I expected too much......there is a part of the outside grandstand......something it appears they added on at one time that reminded me of a bush track in Texas called Manor Downs....rusted steel, corrugated decking......not something you'd expect at a venue like that, hell not something I'd expect anywhere. The track is too narrow.......it needs a re-haul. Who designed that track???? They literally built it on the "Old Hilltop"......you walk up from the fence at trackside, then depending on where you are, you either walk down steps to the betting area, or walk down a hill......no that isn't a typo, it's a concrete hill, handicapped folks enter at your own risk!!! It's almost as if they tried to save money and rather than do the proper excavation, (leveling and filling) they just built the track to the grade that was there. I have never in my life seen a more poorly designed racecourse, wait......I've never seen a more poorly designed anything. I've been in the building trades with concrete placement as my main focus for over 40 years and I've never seen anything like it. OK that's all about that......now lets get to the "day".... Laura Lawduck sprung for the seats and parking....it wasn't cheap.....She bought the tickets not knowing if I could go, but was determined to go anyway, with me , without me or with a friend. She went to college in Baltimore, worked near the track while going to school. She always wanted to go to Pimlico. I knew what to expect, she didn't, but there was noway I was going to rain on her parade........I would let the chips fall where they may and let her see for herself......The good folks at Pimlico didn't disappoint. First she paid for parking.....45.00, parking lot 4, the only game in town and a good 1/2 mile from the grandstand......no bus service like at Belmont......you have to "hoof it". Well we're two in shape folks, so we smiled and walked. When we got to the entrance......which is near the head of the stretch, we were greeted by a throng of beer/black eyed Susan vender's. Now for those of you that don't know what goes into a BES.....let me say bourbon and vodka are he two main ingredients. I was thirsty......They come in a "souvenir" 136th Preakness glass, 8.00 bucks a pop, not too bad, so I told the guy to give me two, gave him a twenty and told him to keep the change. Laura and I took our drinks and proceeded to enter the track, but were told we couldn't bring the drinks in with us. I said "your kidding right, there selling them on your side too. NO No NO.....you bought it before you walked in, and even though we're selling them 5 feet away, you can't bring that one in. I said OOOOOKKKKKKK.....so I chugged it down. Laura isn't the Bourbon type....she likes her beer. So I chugged hers down, looked at the guard and said.....OK, can I bring the glass in? She said sure.....as long as they're empty. Who thinks this stuff up? Now all you hear all day is "Beer Here!! Get your Bud Light and Bud Lime!!!!! screaming at the top of there lungs. Then there's The Black eyed Susans...."GET YOU BLACK EYED SUSANS HERE!!!!!!!!!! which by the 6th race was BLACK EYED SUZIE'S, then by the Preakness was GET YOUR Suesssssss!!!!!! They weren't Black eyed any more, they were just SUESSSSSSSS. Laura kept looking at me and smiling......she said she thought the infield was like this, not the concourse. I said Honey......Your only shot was to go to the Clubhouse on "special" race days, because NO ONE in the concoures IS A HORSEPLAYER.......I told her to watch, I'd make her laugh...... not to worry, we were here to enjoy the day, I only liked three races and one was at Belmont....we had time. I pointed out to her that most folks were there to drink....horses second. Then there was the quasi horse player......very loud, doesn't really know much, but he sounds knowledgeable to anyone who doesn't know. You"ll see them all today....just sit back and enjoy the fun, let me know when the 7th at Pimlico and 8th at Belmont are 20 minutes out......(I have a terrible habit of getting shut out). Well as i said earlier, by the 6th race things started getting interesting......No one paid attention to the horses...except when they past by our section of the stretch.... We were sitting right where they set up the gate for 1 1/16th races. So when the gate sprung open everyone would Cheer .......THEY"RE OFF!!!!!!, then they'd sit back down, take a few more chugs till they hit the top of the stretch......then they'd all start yelling.........the horses would pass and they'd sit back down, no one caring who won.....after all, that was all the way down there at the finish line......"hey babe, pass me a cold one"......by now I'm pointing this stuff out and laura's starting to laugh....she's getting into the spirit of it. When it came time to bet the 7th @ Pimlico we went inside to the windows......that's when I got the eyefull of the serious design flaws of the place. I looked at laura and said if anyone came in here with a wheelchair she wouldn't have to "Chase the ambulance" (she's a lawyer) she could "Chase the wheelchair", because it would be passing us at about 80 mph.....We bet the 7th (Chinglish) and went back to our seats.......which were taken over by some folks who decided they needed alittle more space for the cooler. After much apologies on their part we sat down and watched the 7th. Laura's enthusiastic......a great person to do things with.....she's "easy".....oh Jesus, get your head out of the gutter....you know what I mean. I confuse her at times though......she's starting to learn that when I really like a horse, just bet, forget what they look like in the paper, forget the odds, just bet. So she wants to know what I see in Chinglish......I said it doesn't matter.....the horse should be 15-1 and someones betting him pretty good, I can tell you it isn't anyone from Pimlico. They come to the head of the stretch and I turn away and say "come on lets go collect"....But she says "they haven't finished yet". I said "he'll win for fun come on"......We walked inside as they crossed the line, Chinglish won easy......she just looked at me, I said "40 years told me so." I expected better, but I'll take 19.60 all day long. I was disappointed that Master Dunker didn't get second though. We had plenty of time till the 8th from Belmont so we decided to eat...Pulled Pork sandwiches....very tasty, if I do say so myself. When we sat back down......watched a few races and just took it all in, the beer, the Suzie's.....and the drunks, it was like being at then carnival.....hey I'm no prude, in the day I drank as much as anyone with a drinking problem, but I'm past that.......it is fun to watch though. So they're saddling the horses for the Preakness, we're sitting, talking, Laura and I....when this sweet angelic voice touches our ears........" This is what it's' all about man......getting f'd up". We turned around and there was two 18-19 yr.old girls.....half dressed, eyes bloodshot.......holding their beers like it was manna from heaven. They tilted their tall necks towards us...as if to say "here's looking at you"......and walked away. I looked at Laura and smiled.......all these years I never knew what it was I was doing here....and now...because of those two sweet girls I know". About this time the vender's decided to empty the melted ice water out of their huge coolers.......it was like a Tsunami..........women's feet were soaked......hero sandwiches floated away......Laura and I were thoroughly enjoying the show. The consensus of the "know it all" horsemen was that Nehro was gonna win...."Don't ask"......as soon as they crossed the line we darted out of the track.......got to the parking lot in time to be stuck in traffic for 45 minutes.....that was just to get out of parking lot 4. While we were stuck we were treated to a "show"......it was called "Drunken girl gets out of family SUV crying and refuses to get back in, only to have drunken boy's come to her rescue" Laura thought a fight would ensue, but I explained when men and boys "posture", talk trash and used the f word no punches will be thrown.......they're all chicken S..T. Nothing did happen and we were extremely entertained. When we finally made it to the gates, we were greeted by a wwoman cop on her cell phone....telling her "BABY, she was working, directing traffic and had to go" I'm sure "baby" was disappointed. We made it to the street...almost out, when a white kid comes running btetween the cars chased by 5 of Baltimore's finest....after about 100 yards the kid decides to stop and throws up his hands.....surrendering....oh but the cops would have none of it......they were not going to be denied a "takedown". That poor kid, 4 cops on top of him, giving him hell and adding insult to injury a short pudgy woman cop drops on his back, calls him scumbag and bends his arm up to the back of his head........There was a dodge pickup next to us with a couple sitting watching.....the female passenger noticed me looking, I looked at her and said "Welcome to the great state of Maryland....I'm from NY.......I could have stayed home and watched this".....she and her husband laughed. We finally got out....laura treated me to a seafood dinner at a favorite place of hers from het college days......as a thank you for Chinglish.....oh which reminds me the 8th at Belmont......doesn't matter.....you wouldn't believe me anyway. Mike A

Just my opinion... I found it amusing shortly after the Preakness telecast that a commercial ran advertising the matchup of the Derby winner against the Preakness winner in the Belmont Stakes. Its amusing because except for us regular gamblers, why would the general public care about Animal Kingdom vs Shackleford in a rubber match if there is no Triple Crown on the line? If anyone has the figures, I would be interested in knowing how the handle in NY on the Derby and Preakness race itself compared to the past years. With the closure of NYC OTB, there was no place for the general public in NY to make a wager on these races unless they went to the track or if they had opened up a NYRA account, both of which I find unlikely. On Derby days, NYCOTB would be crowded with casual fans making wagers as you saw a high number of women turn out to make wagers (usually a lady or two would turn out at the classier OTBs but frequently its a stretch to see one). The casual fans would make wagers based on the horse name (Lot of people used UPS and wagered on Big Brown for that reason) or birthdays, etc. The political correct thing to say is that they were likely to run in the Belmont Stakes, but realistically why burn out the horse when a few weeks of rest to bring them back in a prep in late July/early August, followed by the Haskell on a speed favoring track for Shackleford and Animal Kingdom in the Travers, with the Breeders Cup being the big picture. Besides which, there are 21 wagering days before the Belmont Stakes, and same as the Derby, I'll take the side of being quiet until the entries are out. I guess I'm just fascinated to see how much press has been on the potential rematch as something that would be good for racing and how it would draw more fans. I just doubt the general public will rearrange their day to watch a rematch of Shackleford and Animal Kingdom. Anyway, as a New Yorker, the hope is we get some consistent sun as it is once again gloomy outside and rain is on its way. BBQ weekend is coming up and one of the better race cards is on Monday for the Met Mile... shortly thereafter the better two year olds will start making their appearances and perhaps the superstar we are waiting for will appear and be healthy for a few years of racing... Continue success to everyone...

PGM, bummer... At least he retired a winner.

can i get the pp of forestry and kitten's joy? great memories for my friend, thanks!

Dan, I can accept when my handicapping is wrong as it was on the Preakness, etc BUT twice this year, the jockey has caused me money. The first time was in one of the early turf races at Aqueduct this season when the jockey appeared to have misjudged the finish line which even prompted Tom Durkin to be shocked at how the horse lost the race and then this past Saturday with Unbridled Danger who was ridden by Julio Pezua. Any ideas if any measures were taken by the Stewards? Pezua did not persevere with his mount for some reason until the last couple of strides when he went to the whip and wound up losing by a neck. The race cost me in essence of 2k. Even the charts indicated the lack of try by Pezua. ...in addition, as I assume you have a NYRA Account, any ideas how we can reach out to management and figure out why the phone betting system and internet always has issues on the weekends. Two weeks ago, the phone was down and the excuse was a cable was cut by the construction underway. Last Friday, the phone was down and on Saturday, we were told that it was due to a service upgrade done on Friday (why wouldn't they upgrade on Monday and Tuesday). And frequently on Saturday, there is problems connecting to the internet. I'll post the same blog message to Steve to get his thoughts...but something needs to be done to better equip the NYRA Account Wagering system... thanks KYL Syndicate

"If a horse is not good enough to win a race in their natural running style, they are just not good enough to win. Many more horses lose a race by not being allowed to be themselves than win a race by being "changed" through human intervention. "We hear this nonsense of "making the horse relax", "teaching the horse to rate" every year, especially in Derby prep season. Whenever you hear this from a trainer, that horse is a big UNDERLAY in the race." - Alan Amen to that. Can I get a witness?

Wow, victsu, that is a lot of posting for not getting it right. Are you the moderator? I don't ever handicap off of a horse being "lathered up". When I played ball i didn't sweat hard until 10 minutes in, my buddy, he looked like he took a shower before we even left the locker room. He was an all-american. I also don't mess with the whole track bias BS especially when guys are trying to call it day to day. I have seen one true track bias that could be played with confidence, Old Keeneland, the #1 Post. I like horses that are fast. i don't care if they are fast upfront(Shackleford) or have a nice turn of foot(AK) in the stretch. At some point though, they must run fast. It was easy to relegate one pace types like MMM and Astrology(who on another note got the dreamiest trip ever in the Preakness and still plodded home) leaving only three horses to consider for the win and one of them ran fast in KD only because of how slow he ran to start(DialedIn) Forget about Shack popping 1:13 in the Derby, just think that means Dialed in Ran the first 6F in like 1:16 and change. Does his running :47 for the last 4f look impressive after that?(Note:Animal Kingdom was just a few lengths back in 5th for most of the Derby) Allowance horses warm up with that and then workout in :46 and change on a Monday. Note that the winners were well clear of the third place horse who also happened to get the best(Perfect?) trip, super ground saving along the rail, not boxed, no horse in front of him kicking dirt laying 4th so you better believe that Shack and AK are head and shoulders above the rest. Throw in Nehro and u only need to figure the 3rd and 4th place finishers in the Belmont and the Super is yours.

"No need the run "The Shack" in the Belmont... He has earned a break and should rest up for some racing down the road. AK and Dialed In will be 5/2 co-favorites in the Belmont. Zito will be high on his home turf." -Whacky Whacky, I normally agree with 99 percent of what you post--I must take exception here. High? Yeah, just like he was high on Ice Box. Both horses are not ideal to run in the Belmont Stakes. Like Woody Stevens said, it is a race for speed horses and gallopers. One run closers need not apply. While Shack may have earned some rest, he is peaking now, and the public wants to see The Derby winner vs. The Preakness winner. No one cares about Dialed In. I was dumb enough to go against my own better judgement and leave that one on my Preakness exotics over and under because of the pace factor. A true classic horse would have hit the board there. DI had no excuses. In fact, DI finished 8th in the Derby and 4th in the Preakness. What makes you think another 2.5 furlongs will be helping that horse? There will be some nice candidates running in the Belmont Stakes, but DI the miler has little shot to finish in front of them or Shack at 12f IMHO...AK is an ideal candidate for the Belmont Stakes. I think Alternation may be tough as well if they let the horse run. Astrology is a nice fit, not sure he is good enough, but he is a nice fit. Shack obviously gets his stamina underneath. He may not win, but he will factor. He is a horse with tactical speed and stamina that does not like to be passed. He may not get 12f, but his running style is a plus at the Belmont Stakes. DI is at a disadvantage. I hope the Derby and Preakness winner go to the Belmont Stakes. It would be good for that venue. Good for business and good for the game. Let Zito show up. His horse will be up against it with his running style. Remember that big move Mine that Bird made on the second turn only to hang badly in the Belmont stretch. If DI runs his race, he will do that all over again and will be lucky to finish 3rd.

"Does anyone here think Shackleford would have been better off Saturday if he tried to relax, change his style from a presser to a stalker, rate several lengths off the lead, etc, etc?" - Alan. NO! Romans knew better than to pull a Soldat with the horse. Shack would have been collared well before the wire and may have even tired since he would not have been allowed to blow off all of his steam and high strung pre-race indicators that Donna Brothers freaked out about. Note the horse relaxed after the second call and just got into a nice cadence. Romans knew this horse ran best on or near the pace. They were not the least bit concerned about a speed duel because that would benefit Shack, not Flashpoint. From there, he was just waiting for Jesus to ask for his run. And the jockey said when he asked he could feel his horse getting bigger and stronger. Romans said his horse loves to look other horses in the eye. So, no. Like James Mc and I have said, let the dam horse run and if he is good enough and classy enough he will make his own race. Romans figured his horses was the stayer of all of the speed, as he was right. I watched the dynamic in racing greyhounds at the track with the longest stretch in the industry (Derby Lane). Some runners just thrive on the lead (or right up on it). If they do not run their race, they lose interest and tire. They are not tiring because they are tired, they simply frazzle out being behind and between runners. Some speed horses can rate off the pace, most are better near the lead. If they get cooked, they get cooked...at least they run their race. If they cannot get the distance, at least they ran their race. Hasn't anyone noticed that I have not taken up any space moaning about Flashpoint? Its because he ran his race but proved to be a sprinter-miler. They gave him his best shot and he was short and distance challenged. But, he ran his race. He was beat by longer winded runners. Regroup and go to the Kings Bishop (where Flashpoint will be dangerous). Soldat is another story. They never gave him a chance to show his speed on the front end in the Derby. He beat Shack in the FOY going wire to wire, Shack basically threw in the towel in that race. My entire point with Soldat is that we have no idea how fast he could run because they never let him run that fast, or go to the lead and control the pace after his FOY tour de force. Slow fractions in the FOY? Not given this year's bunch. Those fractions were solid. The horse was obviously far more comfortable on the lead. Some horses are. You don't screw with the horse trying to make him what he is not IMO. Soldat is probably not the best example because like Mike A said he probably was not good enough at 10f anyhow. But, that is surmise, because we do not know what he could have done on the lead at 10f. We do know that many horses do great on the lead and run like garbage rated off of the lead. Shackleford is a good example of that. What to do? Its not rocket science, let the damn horse go to the lead and if they burn out they burn out. Better yet, see if he can rate just off the shoulder of the leader. Speed horses love this because they can eyeball the leader and when they pass that horse they get confidence and become very dangerous and hard to catch. Romans looks like a genius for merely knowing his horse and letting his horse run his race (and handicapping the other speed). And he is right that a FASTER early pace gives the advantage to the speed horses. It strings the field out and takes advantage of their best asset. It forces the closers to either spend energy running or take back and lose valuable ground. AK and JV chose the latter. Either way, it affects their closing kick by either blunting it if the closers run early, or leaving them with more to do. Fast pace benefits a true speed horse and the stalkers if the field falls apart. Of course, there is that rare pace meltdown like in the Derby in 2005 or the Preakness in 2007. But note that the class horse up on that pace in both races still hit the board. How refreshing in 2011 to watch a two turn race where the speed was not throttled down in the early stages. And, of course, there are those complaining that the pace slowed down on the second turn. Guess what? The horse(s) on the lead can do whatever they feel comfortable with and can get away with. If they are slowing down too much, move your damn horse and press them! See how the real slave to the pace is the closers if the speed horses just do their thing and are not forced to be stalkers choked off the pace? AK ran a good race and gave his all but had too much to do. DI, according to Zito, ran the best 4th place finish in Preakness history. Maybe he can go on to the Belmont Stakes on run the best 3rd in BS history? Hopefully DI stays at 9f and under where he can thrive... Good post, Alan.

Alan and Ten Cent, Completely agree that improper, and not just repeat, entries should be grounds for a disqualification. Alan, Turns out Paddy's foot was more than bruised, as per J. Privman's most recent article.

Overall, I think people are severly overrating, and overreacting to, Shackleford's effort. He ran hard and was game. Great. He also inherited the lead and wasn't seriously challenged until Animal Kingdom appeared in deep stretch. Shackleford held on and won a race that was too far for him. That's right. Watch the final eighth. He's all over the place, switching back to his wrong lead, then back again, and hung on for dear life, being saved by the wire. The 1 3/16 was beyond his comfort zone. Doesn't mean he can't win the race... he did. Also doesn't mean he loved the distance... he doesn't. I disagree with Beyer on 1 point... Animal Kingdom, while not that great himself, does have a legitimate excuse here: he was left with far too much to do. He ran Dialed In's race from Kentucky... it's hard to run down a tough horse like Shackleford, even if he's racing beyond his limitations, when he's catching a breather and you're over 15 lengths behind. Line of David anyone? Shackleford's win underscores what can happen when bad horses contest ugly races. Both apply here. TBTA, I'm not so sure about that. Norman Asbjornson was already done at that point and gasping to the wire, while Dialed In was just getting into gear. For such an alpha horse, Dialed In got bounced around like a pinball at the start.

tencent, Regarding the HG scoring - I agree with Alan. If the wagers are not properly entered, it should be DQ'd. Dennis of Moline had a great suggestion to include the posting rules on Dan's "I know time is an issue..." statement. Perhaps including things like it should be noted as HG at the top, use program numbers and be separated from the analysis would be a good start. I don't envy your job and I think it is incumbent upon all the participants to make your job as easy as possible.

I think it's fair to say Shackleford did relax on Saturday, based on his two :25+ middle quarters... I doubt he hangs on if his 6F split is 1:11 instead of 1:12... But he also seemed to do it on his own without needing to be held back...

Hi Dan, wondering if you could post lifetimes for one of my favourite horses...Planets Aligned...who turned into a pretty good hurdler after racing in New York. Also if you could post Paddy O Prado's lifetimes in honour of this great turf horse. such a shame that his career has ended. Much appreciated, thanks Greg

Vicstu , I didn't mean to insinuate that you thought Animal was a plodder. Many people seem to speak of him as a deep onr run closer devoid of speed. He in fact is the grandest type of Animal. A horse with more than one move. Only the very BEST have more than one move. Animal has multiple races in his short career that display that two move capability. I was throwing it in because it illustrated the ridiculous ride he got . With stupid quotes from JV like "AK found himself 13 th of 14 yadayada" Like the horse was back there by himself and the little pinhead wasn't on his back ! AK has proven in his short career to be a horse that does what he's asked to do by the rider when the rider asks him to do it. That little midget blaming the horse in a roundabout way is truly @#$#@#$ denial of the pitiful ride that he gave the horse. ValasqueZ SWALLOWED THE OLIVE . He didn't have to make a Nakatani/Nehro move all he needed was to inch closer during the 4f that was slowed to a walk. He could have done that without expending any energy to speak of. That lawyer crack was just for funnin'. I don't really think you're evil. Well on second thought... LOL. Stringmail , The horse I'm thinking of had a 2 word name & the second word began with a D. I've been trying to remember his name for a couple years periodically . I think it was mid '90s . After reading Steve Ts post on Citation it made me think of that horse . I asked Jay Hovdey if he remembered him and he remembered it happening but couldn't remember the name either. With Steve Ts excellent memory and familiarity with the So Cal circuit I thought if anyone could remember him it would be him. Abrams probably wasn't joking about that BC. It wouldn't have been a first for him to run one back to back days. Steve T , no that wasn't the one but thanks for the effort. Scianc 22 , Nice job sticking with Shack . Congrats to you . He was knocking on the door for you and this time he kicked it in. Nice courage of your convictions. You deserve a nice payday for your efforts and so does Shack & his connections. I wish I was congratulating you & Shack on another fine 2nd though. LOL. Curt V , did you get a fishcake or the Surf & Turf ? Tencent, You patiently ask the same thing every week. You should just DQ anybody that doesn't know how to call out a bet. The pari mutuel clerks would look at these shmos and tell them to come back when they know what numbers they want to bet on . Any argument and they'd just ring the bell. Really . These people are like little kids. They don't listen . When little kids don't listen to the boss they have to be punished until they get the concept .DQ them all with extreme prejudice. People that are regulars are really being inconsiderate and I believe they are trying to test your resolve while getting some perverse enjoyment out of your weekly appeals to seperate your bet from analysis and use numbers not names. People that don't know procedure should not be at the track or even playing a free online contest. They should go play lotto scratchers and give you a break . I'm hoping the next two weeks the winning wager is someone that doesn't follow instructions and that you DQ them. Maybe that will get their attention. Thanks for your efforts. You don't deserve the blatant disregard displayed by these horses backsides to your reasonable request.

Does anyone have any idea how the DuPont (run at 12:18pm in 1:42.85) and the Schaefer (run at 4:17pm in 1:43.70) both received 100 Beyers?

tencent, As I suggested back when cayman had the same problem, HandiGambling entries improperly written SHOULD BE DISQUALIFIED! vicstu, Shackleford's Preakness win basically came down to what you have been preaching on this blog since the days of Hard Spun. You have finally converted me! Other than for a few modifications (blinkers, surface change, good vet and farrier care), in the end you have to let the horse do what they do best. Some horses change their styles successfully (usually from being a presser to either a stalker or closer) as they get older, but I seriously wonder how much of that is due to trainer or jockey skill. Don't get me wrong. Trainers and jockeys are both incredibly important in the success of any horse, just not in general to their running style. If a horse is not good enough to win a race in their natural running style, they are just not good enough to win. Many more horses lose a race by not being allowed to be themselves than win a race by being "changed" through human intervention. We hear this nonsense of "making the horse relax", "teaching the horse to rate" every year, especially in Derby prep season. Whenever you hear this from a trainer, that horse is a big UNDERLAY in the race. You couldn't have looked worse prior to the gates opening than Shackleford on Saturday. They were even talking about it on TV. Then Shackleford goes out, presses the leader, gets the lead at the top of stretch, fights off the closing challenge of the Derby winner, wins and gets his best Beyer ever = 104. Does anyone here think Shackleford would have been better off Saturday if he tried to relax, change his style from a presser to a stalker, rate several lengths off the lead, etc, etc?

tencent, As I suggested back when cayman had the same problem, HandiGambling entries improperly written SHOULD BE DISQUALIFIED! vicstu, Shackleford's Preakness win basically came down to what you have been preaching on this blog since the days of Hard Spun. You have finally converted me! Other than for a few modifications (blinkers, surface change, good vet and farrier care), in the end you have to let the horse do what they do best. Some horses change their styles successfully (usually from being a presser to either a stalker or closer) as they get older, but I seriously wonder how much of that is due to trainer or jockey skill. Don't get me wrong. Trainers and jockeys are both incredibly important in the success of any horse, just not in general to their running style. If a horse is not good enough to win a race in their natural running style, they are just not good enough to win. Many more horses lose a race by not being allowed to be themselves than win a race by being "changed" through human intervention. We hear this nonsense of "making the horse relax", "teaching the horse to rate" every year, especially in Derby prep season. Whenever you hear this from a trainer, that horse is a big UNDERLAY in the race. You couldn't have looked worse prior to the gates opening than Shackleford on Saturday. They were even talking about it on TV. Then Shackleford goes out, presses the leader, gets the lead at the top of stretch, fights off the closing challenge of the Derby winner, wins and gets his best Beyer ever = 104. Does anyone here think Shackleford would have been better off Saturday if he tried to relax, change his style from a presser to a stalker, rate several lengths off the lead, etc, etc?

Annie, Yeah ! That's it. My wife has it set up to delete automatically each & every time I exit the computer. BUTTS:a big BUTTS:>>>>>>>That automatic business doesn't cut the mustard, not one iota. It takes & deletes in a fashion I aint sure of. 'Cause when I check the stuff, it's always still there. It picks & chooses at a whim & a lark..Now, there's nothing like the old tried & true method..I manually, at least once per/week, or more depending on any funny stuff I detect, or when Norton intercepts something, I immediately go in & DELETE EVERYTHING I can..Some stuff always stays, BUTTS:It's minimal.. You would be surprised at the amount of junk that's in there, doing nothing but "Clogation"..& you have to set it up so you don't delete your internal passwords.. That would be sacrilegious..DRF ? etal..It'll still remember passwords & highlight stuff, just you'll have an extra step on certain pre-sites..>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>BUTTS: It'll keep you from an unwarranted Fix @the computer shop guy store & keep your computer running on premium{fast & furious>>Pepper like}.. Hey, why do I know this stuff ? My buddy is the repair guy..& he's tired of doing me a freebie..so he told me & I listened like E.F.Hutton......He said next time it's gonna cost you.......After my 3rd freebie, I sort of like, didn't like the look{sneer} he gave me.........roflmao.........

Rudy Joe, Thank you for the praise. It is def. appreciated. I acutally had the same bets as my HG bets so I did well. I did however screw up the tri and super because I got nervous about AK and MMM so I stupidly keyed Dialed In for 2nd and 3rd in my saver tris and supers. Monmouth didnt allow .10 for some reason so I had DI keyed underneath Shack with AK-MMM-Astrology-DC and Mr C. Oh well it happens to all of us. It is nice though to pick out a horse well in advance and have him come through for you. It is a great confiedence booster. I know how humbling this game is so I wont be breaking my arm patting myself on the back. I have learned to not get to high or too low and to just let my handicapping do the talking. It did feel pretty cool though:). Thanks again.

tencentcielo Perhaps you could ask Dan to list the rules for posting along with his "I know time is an issue" paragraph that he does every week:-) DOM

" Vicstu..some of us feel the need to say I TOLD YOU SO." go ahead and take your victory lap my question is, will it b a mile and three sixteenths or 6 furlongs? " all hail the most high (lord) (sir) shackleford" glad 2 c u got the common sense not 2 capitalze the L in lord shackleford. peace VQ

BSB Lethal Heat or Bel Air Sizzle are two that come to mind when thinking about Abrams running on back to back days. I know that Abrams was talking about running in the BC sprint with Lethal Heat and then coming back the next day in the mile as he was cross entered. I'm sure no one but Barry thought he was serious. Maybe this will jog Steve's memory about those hard trying Unusual Heat's

Check out the ride that Pezua gave Unbridled Danger in the 5th at Belmont on Sat.,May21,2011.The stewards hould call him in on that ride.Look at a relay or just read the chart notes.

A shout out to Scianc 22, who thought a lot of this horse for a while he posted the following. Ok, I tried really really hard this week to throw Shackleford out but I just dont see what so many others do. The slow pace in the derby aside, he still ran a great race considering only 1 horse all weekend went gate to wire and he was life and death to do so. Shack finished a length away from 2nd. All of the other "speed" in the derby ran up the track. Sure he doesnt have the breeding for the distance but he is a very game animal. As long as he breaks well he will be there IMO. I also dont believe he needs to be out front to run his best. The pace will be faster tommorow but that doesnt neccessarily mean he will be hurt by it. If he can lay up close without being too rank He might really surprise. As long as the track is playing fair and he doesnt look bothered like he did in the fountain of youth he should be fine. Well done! hope you nailed the ex big time.

Congratulations to all who had Shackleford and to all who cashed tickets. I did neither. I used AK over a few longshots and failed to cash a ticket. BSB...I see smarty jones had Shack in the PH contest. Good for her ! Did you ? (I don't know what tag you use in PH, so I was unable to see who your picks were. And I have had limited use of a computer lately, so have not been keeping up with the blog very well ). I went 0 for 4 in PH this week. On to the Belmont. Dick W

Ron Zuercher Thanks for the kind words. Will send you the odds line. Vicstu You have captured my TC experience precisely. Right horses, wrong tickets. Suffolk looked like a real racecourse yesterday. Guys in suits, women with big hats, lots of college kids, families with toddlers. Everyone looked like they were having fun. Not so much after the fog rolled in, but that's New England. Congratulations to all of yesterday's winners. Nothing for me, but my "A" horses in PH went win/win/place/place and positive ROI. Some consolation.

A dismal Saturday wagering wise and will turn the page once I post this and start focusing on today: (1) One of the beauty of horse racing is not knowing what can happen from one race to another. Considering Shackleford who was on the lead in both the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby, setting average fractions could not hold on but yet pressing a speed horse in Flashpoint in much faster splits and still going on for the win, who could have figured. Congrats on a great performance (2) Animal Kingdom will always be known as the Kentucky Derby winner but had no excuse for not winning yesterday. There's a reason why its hard to win the Triple Crown and like it or not, the only horse who had that 'wow' factor from this year group is the medically injured Uncle Mo. Yes, it would be nice to see a Triple Crown winner in my lifetime but I would not mind waiting for that until a superstar comes along, one that captivates the public. Barbaro was the closest in mind in the past twenty years and in an article from Friday's drf, another brother of Barbaro was just born and they are hoping a sister will come along in the future. (3) My weekly NYRA Account complaint. Tried for a few hours Friday afternoon to call and make wagers with their live operators but of course the phone account system was down. Here's the brilliance of NYRA Management, the reason the phone system was down was they decided to upgrade the system on Friday. Are you kidding me? Wouldn't it make sense to make the upgrade on Monday or Tuesday, their dark days whereby I doubt there is much in simulcast wagering. Why would you do it the day before the Preakness? Or is this just another absurd reason provided considering the week before it was construction severing the cables. (4) I was at the Trustee Room at Belmont yesterday and originally had plans of going to the Belmont Stakes, figuring we would have the same spot in the Trustee Room. But the room is reserved only for the owners that day. They offered the dining room instead and how much do you think it cost? 275 dollars per person. Thanks but no thanks, as even the best restaurants in NY doesn't cost 275 per person. (5) I'm down big the last few days and would have cut my losses in half if Julio Pezua actually tried to win with Unbridled Danger in race 5 at Belmont yesterday. Pezua did not bother to ask his horse or whip his horse until a couple of strides from the wire and fail short by a neck. I was closing the pick 3 for 40 dollars, had another 40 pick 3 closing to the winner of the next and triple and super in the race. The horse is 0 for 35 at Belmont but was the speed of the race and should have won his first at Belmont. I was steaming and of course at night time, I check the charts and this is what it reads... UNBRIDLED DANGER broke alertly, sparred intensely with the winner, from the two path, with the rider applying a strong grip on the reins, continued along on the same scenario for nearly a half, lost contact with the actively-handled top one in upper stretch, contrasting the winners riding tactics by remaining chilly in the saddle, staged a comeback departing the furlough grounds, gained ground rapidly despite basically unasked, was let out belatedly in the last seventy yards and just missed by a neck. thanks for, well thanks for not trying Pezua... If I have to start handicapping based on jockeys intent, I will give up this game. http://theobjectiveistowin.blogspot.com/

"Vicstu- I agree with you about the running of the Preakness. I watched Shackleford (who I once again dismissed in this race = "me is stupid") not just hold on to win the race but fight off AK in the deep stretch. Perhaps I should reassess Shackleford's stretch runnings in the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby. And I wouldn't discount Shackleford's chances in the Belmont - as Dan notes in his excellent pedigree analysis, Shackleford get stamina from his dam's side." Alan, I really like the horse, Alan. I had him underneath on my exotics, Certainly could not toss. I thought he would tire. I was wrong. I am kicking myself for not listening to my gut instinct and kicking DI off of the top of my exotics. That would have moved Shack up...even I was drinking the kool aid that the race set up for closers. In retrospect (which is always 20-20) read my previous post where I broke down the track conditions in the Derby and the FL Derby and how that may have affected how Shack finished. He got a track and rail that were favorable to speed Saturday, and the horse is all heart. The rest is history. And I agree with you (and Dan) about Shack getting stamina from his dam's side. I think that is where a good number of champions get their stamina...and Shack has the running style. He is a pace setting galloper. However, I do think AK may be a little better at 12f if they get him closer and just let him run like Summer Bird. He's not a plodder, he is another galloper. Just no big moves on that second turn before the stretch...

Shamrock Bend, You nailed it on Shack. Look forward to your Belmont picks. And you are right, the horse obviously does not like to be passed.

"Animal is not a plodder, check out his Keeneland win on or near the lead all the way in fast time for a 2yr old. In fact a better 9f than any of these have ever ran." BSB When did I ever call that one a plodder? I have always said he was a stalker with tactical speed and a good turn of foot (and closing kick). He simply ran into a dirt race that was truly run for 4f and then slowed down. He is a nice horse that had a bit too much to do against a dead game speed horse who could get 9.5f. BTW, touche on the lawyer-rapture thing. But I consider myself a good candidate to be the "Un Lawyer". Speaking of lawyers, lets hope things have remained dry for Big Easy and Lil' Chock...

Let's give Romans credit for letting Shack run his race in every race. Many trainers (and jocks) would have been terrified of a speed duel and would have been wrestling with Shack to rate well behind FP. But Shack had other ideas and wanted to run. Once he had clicked off 4f both frontrunners began to relax but they had already strung the field out and made them run a little. Then they slowed it down... Bottom line--they stayed true to the horse's form a let him run his race. And he rewarded them by winning the Preakness. And all the so-called pace experts are scratching their heads. What happened? You are not supposed to win after going 4f in 46 and change, they said. If you have a speed horse with stamina and heart that is EXACTLY what you do. You have to let the horse get early separation and then relax. I have been pounding on that drum for years here (as has James Mc). Shackleford turned out to be the ANTI-Soldat (racing strategy-wise). Once Shack's connections figured out his best chance was at or on the lead after he threw a clunker in the FOY, they never tried to rate him back again. The same CANNOT be said of the other trainers. And Shack proved a speed horse will go as fast or slow as you want him to go. Just because a horse like Shack did not set fast fractions in the Derby does not mean he could not do so in the Preakness. They let the horse run his race instead of throttling him down early. Let the speed run and they will RELAX once they get a good cadence going and control the pace. Where is the statistic that shows a speed horse that is questionable to get a distance does better by staying off of the pace? I keep waiting for someone to break out the stats to back that "axiom" of horse racing but it never appears because the stats would likely show that this adage is an URBAN MYTH. Yet everyone repeats it like it is gospel. I will break out evidence to show the contrary but have taken up enough space on the subject... BSB, "RACING IS LIKE SHAVING, YOU HAVE TO DO IT FREQUENTLY OR YOU LOOK LIKE A BUM." Classic! Curt V. and Ron Z, Good posts and I agree with what you are saying. KYL Syndicate, You just had the wrong speed horse (like me and a few others) but the right idea. Shack overcame odds Saturday to win yet had things his way and could not get it done Sat. It happens and it is very frustrating to handicap around... Whacky, Gomez is a good example of a strong handler. Terrible for speed horses unless they are insanely unhinged...but he may be good for MMM. He does seem to be a huge, leggy colt (kind of like Uptowncharliebrown was) and like UCB always seems to be somewhere where he could not stretch those legs. I think MMM has more upside at this point, but I did hear that UCB is returning to the work tab soon. That horse could not catch a break. He had that debacle at the Belmont Stakes and still finished within a couple of lengths of the winner. Meathead, Thanks. You are welcome. Frustrating day for many of us...I cannot believe I put DI on top of my exotics because I kept listening to how the pace set up well for him. I am convinced that horse belongs back at 8 to 9 furlongs with Sway Away. I went AGAINST my better judgement. That shows we all can be swayed. SA needs a nice allowance race that he can win. He is a nice closing miler who really needs to get his confidence back. He ran a damn good race against The Factor at 7f. Ned D.,, Right horses, wrong order. Story of 2011 for me. All, One angle (20-20 hindsight) that I did not consider when handicapping the Preakness was that the GP track that Shack was nailed at the wire on is a very tiring track. Sure, it has a speed bias but speed still comes home slow and in order--like a Merry Go Round. Horses routinely come home in 13 and change there. And that race showed the distance limit for DI's late kick. He just got up. In the Derby, the track was playing against speed all day, and the inside was DEAD. Yet, Shack was set down on the inside and fought on bravely, but was passed with 1/16 to go. At Pimlico he got a track that was playing fair to speed and a live rail...the rest is history. Perhaps that explains some of it. BTW, this year they went 1:12 flat at 6f and the top 3 finished in 1:56.47, 1;56.63 and 1:57.25. In 2007, they went 1:09.80 at 6f, and the top 3 finished in 1:53.46, 1:52.47 and 1:54.15. How is that for contrast? Similar track conditions as well. I hate comparing years like that but you have to admit this crop would have been hard pressed to hit the board in any race against that crop. Still, I remain a big fan of Shack and AK, and hope they try Astrology in the Belmont Stakes. Those horses do give their all and are entertaining. Maybe Johnny V was too far back, but they were going pretty fast early. If he was closer then AK may have had little left and everyone would be screaming he was too close. The BSFs for the top 3 in 2007's Preakness were 112, 112 and 105. Wonder what it will be this year? BTW, TBTA, Yes, I did see that...and DI is not a big colt, either. If he would have tried that against Shack he would have likely bounced off of him!

Sunday note... Congrat's to all of the people that had "The Shack". Game win from a grinder of a horse!!! I think that it is time to YANK Rajiv Maragh off of Mucho Macho Man!!! From what I have seen in the past 2 races, this Jock has done a terrible job with this colt. He likes to sit with the others and just cruise along. This horse is BIG and LONG!!! He needs to be outside and closer to the lead!!! Let him run!! Seems that MMM was just running behind and into others. Just like walking down the sidewalk and the people in front of you will not move. You are like, "get the hell out of the way". Why not get Joel, Raphy from the west coast!! Make a move and give yourself a shot at some big races down the road!! Not happy at all with what I saw yesterday with the MMM camp!!! AK ride was suspect. JV was too far back, and with the short stretch, he was not going to get there. Dialed In, Zito will say that he will be the top choice in the Belmont!!! What a Horse!!! Whackymacky Out!!!!

Whakymacky, Here's what happened to Mucho Macho Man: http://www.thedowneyprofile.com/More_Racing_News/2011/05/22/daily-preakness-update-for-sunday-may-22-2011.185786 MUCHO MACHO MAN – Reeves Thoroughbred Racing and Dream Team Racing’s Mucho Macho Man came out of his sixth-place Preakness finish missing a shoe. “He caught his left front shoe. I’m going to watch the replay over and over and over again; I need to find out what happened with it,” said trainer Kathy Ritvo, whose colt lost his right front shoe in a third-place finish in the Louisiana Derby. “He’s got to be doing something. I haven’t had a horse pull a shoe for three or four years and now I’ve got two in three races,” she added. “I think he’s snatching himself coming out of the gate. I think he’s so excited to get out of the gate that he’s springing before his front feet are gone. He’s not a nervous horse. It’s got to be something. I’ve got to figure out what happened and when he lost it.” Mucho Macho Man, who finished third in the Kentucky Derby, had some early traffic problems before racing four and five-wide under jockey Rajiv Maragh. Rajiv said he wasn’t handling the track. When he got to the quarter-pole, he was just jumping up and down,” Ritvo said. “He’s got little cuts all over him, but no big deal.” Mucho Macho Man vanned to Belmont Park Sunday morning with the Belmont Stakes a goal. “We’re on. I think it’s his kind of track and his kind of race,” she said. “We just have to see how he comes out of this race.”

Vicstu, You & me had the same idea..We needed to find a horse who was willing to run early. We just both picked the wrong horse. Astrology ran big. Not big enough. AK had no excuses. He is so far away from TC status, that the Euro stock bus. is preposterous. That was the slowest Preakness in my memory. They would have needed binoculars to find Rachel....Lmao....1:55 Flat. A sorry bunch of colts, if I may say so myself.. You tried..This AK premature talk was enough to gag me w/ a spoon......Even if he won, I would vomit......1:56.2 & he never passed Shack on the entire gallop out. Here's the worst part. I had Shack in the Derby on many combo's & WP & I listened to all the know-its & bit myself..I kept saying the Preakness was shorter & bought the anti-hype.. I got a call from my father right after the race. He was all excited.."I know you had him", he yelled. "What ? Curt, how in the hell did you not bet him, after watching how he ran in the Derby.......?" Too much information is overkill......... Alternation in the Belmont....After watching that sad bunch yesterday, he blows them away.....

BSB, I don't really remember - could it be Nutzapper (name was changed to Guts)?

Things are getting back to normal after a wild weekend hosting my son and his friends. One of his friends has a picture of them with Kegasus which he will hopefully remember to send me...I'll post it to Flickr if/when I get it. I had a losing PIM weekend both days, albeit it barely ($63 total). Shackleford sure looked washed out at post-time - shows you what I know! Similar to most of the horseplaying universe, I was alive to AK (as well as MI and Astrology) in the P4 and P5 to ridiculously low WillPays if AK won. I actually couldn't find the P5 WillPays in real-time, but I think the P4 AK WillPay was ~$38! How embarrassing if you lost money while winning a P4 or in my case, won a whopping net of $20 on my P4 wager! And that's even with singling my Paddy O' BruisedFoot...and BTW how about his effort in the Dixie! So my 2007 blog study on The Performance of Derby Winners in the Preakness (http://retiredandroasting.blogspot.com/2007/05/from-derby-to-preakness-i-hope-you.html) once again held true this year. FWIW, no Derby winner from the back half of the field at 4f has come back to win the Preakness since Alysheba in 1987. It makes sense to me - it is harder for closers to repeat successful pace scenarios and trips race-to-race. Annie, Paddie is apparently OK. The Dixie was on live race feed from Pimlico - if your state allows online betting, you can get the feed from your internet service provider. I had nothing on Shackleford, and ruined an otherwise good day to a small loss. vicstu, I agree with you about the running of the Preakness. I watched Shackleford (who I once again dismissed in this race = "me is stupid") not just hold on to win the race but fight off AK in the deep stretch. Perhaps I should reassess Shackleford's stretch runnings in the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby. And I wouldn't discount Shackleford's chances in the Belmont - as Dan notes in his excellent pedigree analysis, Shackleford get stamina from his dam's side. And BTW, Uncle Steve... I need to partially amend one of my Derby Dogmas from Laura's Pre-Derby CHAT: Although no foal from Oatsee has won the Derby, a son of hers has now won a Triple Crown race. And finally, much as we deservedly gave Calvin credit for discovering Animal Kingdom, we should give credit to one Dan Illman for discovering Shackleford: http://www.drf.com/news/2011-kentucky-derby-under-radar-shackleford

To all who had Shackleton, congratulations. I believe the credit goes to Castenon who gave him a masterful ride. In this case the early fractions are deceiving as the 1st quarter was honest, but the next 3/4 went in 1:15;certainly not fractions to write home about, and again, I believe it was the ride by Castenon that gave Shackleton the victory. Shackleton is a courageous horse, but without Castenon's rides he would not have hit the board in either the KD or the P. I am very disappointed in the performance of the other jockeys, as I thought they would have sensed the slowing of the pace; Motion certainly did, and mentioned it in his post-race comments. This is the beautiful aspect of horse racing as there are so many factors which can affect the outcome of a race. I should also give credit to Dale Romans who has now had 5 straight TC races with a horse in the top 4.

Mike A Any thoughts/comments on two turf races today (Sunday) at Belmont? I did a paper exercise on the 5th and the 9th. I would love to hear your thoughts. Thanks.

Annie, It's nice to hear you have found a new love in your computer........BUTTS: If you don't learn how to clean out that "Cookie Clogation" on a regular basis or manually..it aint gonna be new much longer..You'll be back at square one in no time......A new computer is a beautiful thing, BUTTS: I submit your on going problem was CLOGATION{sic}.......If my computer gets any faster, I'm gonna have to kiss myself{James Brown}.....& it aint new.....BUTTS: It runs like new...Of c-horse, if you know all of the previous, then forget my opinion... "Groovin', on a Sunday afternoon............." The Rascals.........

BTW, Spin this any way you like, but I just watched the Preakness for the 3rd time, including the gallop out. If Shack "just held off AK", and AK needed the extra distance, why didn't AK gallop out past Shack after the wire? They went way around the bend and still Shack was in front. Jesus said he knew they would not catch his horse once he re-broke mid stretch. I think Jesus still had some horse, and he did switch leads a little awkwardly, but once he switched leads he re-broke and I don't think anyone was going past him at that point. I think the horse is very gutsy and has a ton of heart. Spin it any way you like, but on THAT track, THAT day, Shack was the best. I still think AK is likely the top 3 year old classic dirt horse, BUT...Shack was best today. Give the horse his freakin' due! If he was all out to hold off AK, AK would have blasted by in the gallop out. It did not play out that way. The closers simply could not catch Shack today. Not surprising that Pletcher's fresh horse would garner more attention and money than Shack...I could just kick myself for putting Dance City and FP in the same league as Shack at this distance. Stupid, Stupid, Stupid! Then again, when you have a weak 3 year old crop, you reach at times...

Andy Beyer just posted an article here at DRF and for the Wash Post Sunday in which he basically states that Shackleford is a gutsy horse that beat far more talented horses in a mediocre crop. He basically rips the horse before the dust has even settles. I thought it was in poor taste, and I have been one of the loudest here pounding the drum about how uninspiring this bunch of 3 year olds is. Beyer derides Animal Kingdom for not running down Shack, but does not explain how what Shack did is somehow done by a colt with less talent than his rivals. He ran the other speed into the ground, slowed down the pace, and even rebroke in the stretch once he switched leads. It certainly was not the prettiest sight, and the final time was luke warm at best, but the horse deserved to win and what he did took talent. It is not Shack's fault that the other jockeys could not sense he slowed the pace dramatically by 6f, or that AK could not make up 3 lengths in the stretch. I have been the first to admit that this crop has been mediocre at best. Yet, here we are basically a few hours from Shack's gutsy victory and Beyer pots this article which is basically saying Shack is a gutsy horse who has less talent than Animal Kingdom. Yet Beyer himself picked Shack to win the Derby! Does Beyer think this kind of article makes him look less WRONG with his poor T/C handicapping skills? Why can't he just admit this crop makes the best of us look mediocre as handicappers? Why not admit what Shack did took talent? How about being happy for J.C. or Romans? He had Paddy O Prado and Shack ready to go today...and so what if Stevens and Brothers went on and on about how washed out Shack looked? Romans said it happens in most every race and I do recall seeing Shack like that before the FL Derby... Beyer did have a nice snippet in his article, which is on the DRF homepage: "Romans had a theory. “I’m a firm believer,” he said, “that when the pace is slow you keep the closers in the race. The closers flew home in the Derby. But [in the Preakness] they didn’t have the same kick.” Graham Motion and John Velazquez, the trainer and jockey of Animal Kingdom, agreed that the faster pace put their colt in a less comfortable position than he had enjoyed in the Derby. At Churchilll Downs, Velazquez said, “I was right behind the other horses” in clear striking position. But after the first quarter-mile at Pimlico the whole field was strung out, and Animal Kingdom found himself 13th in the field of 14, with dirt flying in his face and 18 lengths to make up. This was going to be a test..." First, Beyer said before the Preakness that a faster early pace would benefit AK. Now, we get excuses the other way? BTW, James Mc and I have been stressing Roman's theory for years now. Let the horse run early and use his speed to spread the field out. Rest on the turn, and re-break when turning for home. Shack did just that and won. Regardless of what you think of this field or the Preakness, what Shack did after 46 and change for the half (and the fastest 1/4 mile in decades in the Preakness) was just as impressive as what AK did at CD. He overcame what should have done him in (a fast early pace) exactly like AK overcame what should have undone him in the Derby (a slow pace). Why is AK's Derby so praise-worthy but Shack's Preakness is not? And why is AK suddenly not a worthy T/C candidate? The horse was left with much to do and Shack was placed on the dead rail at Churchill Downs on Derby Day while the closers were flying at the garden spot mid track... All of this is lost on Beyer (and Crist), both are lamenting that Shack won the Preakness. How dare a speed horse set fast fractions and then slow the field down and then kick away from horses who didn't even lift a foot to run until after 6 furlongs. Boy, that sure takes a ton of talent to sit there in the back of the field and let Shack do all the work with FP and then come with a late run. It takes no talent to do what Shack did...(what a complete load of garbage). The best horse won the Derby. And, given his race and ride, the best horse won the Preakness. AK was simply not good enough for whatever reason. I do think he proved he is the best 3 year old at 10f and better. Here, he came up a little short. Why knock Shack, Andy? I think Belmont would be tailor made for AK, Hope they strike while the horse is still in top form. But, he lost today...Beyer's article is sour grapes and he could have at least waited a few days to start tearing down Shack as some overachieving miler that got lucky.

Dan can you please post canadian hof horse Wake at Noon, please and thank you for your time

Dan can you please post canadian hof horse Wake at Noon, please and thank you for your time

Thanks to those who shared their kind thoughts on my reflection of (personal) feelings regarding recent events surrounding gays in sports -- and how (in a small way) it related to my life. I found the following few minutes shared by ESPN Sports Radio Host Jared Max quite enlightening -- I think it's worth a listen. http://espn.go.com/espnradio/player?rd=1#/podcenter/?id=6567207&autoplay=1&callsign=KSPNAM - robertSD

Dick W , Yes Smarty Jones had Shack . My moniker is MRBOOTS on PH. I'm in about 250th . I had Animal. If he gets up I make about 500 bucks more than the $130 I ended up with. All in all its still nice to make something when you are a little bit wrong. (I prefer to do my bitching after counting my money LOL) I don't like to cry to much about rides but JV needs to learn to read the form. His ride was stupid like Mike Smith at CD with Zenyatta. He gave away 10 lengths needlessly in the 1st 1/4 then sat there doing nothing for more than the next 1/4. Gave away another 5-7 lengths on the turn because he didn't get position earlier. Then he never did get HAND BOOT & WHIP on him EVER. AK was clearly the best horse with a pitiful pilot. That being said SHACK is a BSBFFF 2 . He had a right to win the race off that alone. BSB 2s have taken 10 of the last 41 Preaknesses. BSB 1s have 9 of the last 41. A QUESTION for STEVE T . Steve do you remember who the horse was that Barry Abrams ran in a grass sprint on friday night then 8.5 f on dirt on Saturday afternoon and then a turf marathon on monday hitting the board in all three and winning 1 of them ? I remember the incident but can't recall the horses name. It kind of makes these guys that think horses need several years between races look a little silly. RACING IS LIKE SHAVING, YOU HAVE TO DO IT FREQUENTLY OR YOU LOOK LIKE A BUM. Vicstu , Andy Cryer and the Dog Racer are excuse makers from way back. Nothing that either of those maroons says should surprise you. They are strictly for entertainment purposes. Like Howard Cosell ! They have no insight to speak of and are making money off racing the only way they know how ( spewing literary sewage) Don't take them too seriously kid its just their shtick. Regarding the Rapture . How would an evil doing race tracking lawyer know if it came and went without him ? You could be just left behind kid !! LOL. Animal is not a plodder, check out his Keeneland win on or near the lead all the way in fast time for a 2yr old. In fact a better 9f than any of these have ever ran. Annie , Peppers Pride is a fine name for your new computer ! Whacky , I talked with Smarty Jones about MMM needing a rider that can give him STRONG handling. He's like Baby Huey. He's goofy. I'm not sure he's ever run a straight line more than about a 100 yds. Pat V , Russel or GomeZ might be able to straighten him out some. Or not. LOL. That horse is not for the limp wristed. Weak crop / strong crop . A crop is a crop is a crop. Like Reagan said " if you've seen one giant tree you've seen them all" cutt'em down !!! LOL. How does anybody know how strong the crop is until they are ALL done running ? They don't and never will . Does anybody ever think of something NEW to say ? Scratch that last question. LOL. Don't ask, DON'T TELL seems a reasonable policy to me.

Question for those who make paddock/post parade watching a big part of handicapping...given Shackleford's state of agitation prior to the Preakness and the that he was starting to look washed out...would you have left him off your tickets if you planned to use him? Doesn't conventional horse watching wisdom say to stay away from a horse who looked way too worked up prior to the race?

HG Preakness Didn't see my HG post in last blog so will try again. $1 tri box 1 7 9 10 11 for $60.00 20 cent super 9 10 11/ 7 9 10 11/ 1 6 7 9 10 11/ 1 5 6 7 9 10 11 13 for $36.00 $4 exacta 9 11 I will stick with my derby picks less Soldat and replace him with Dialed In. I am not sure why Baffert would enter Midnight Interlude off of his derby run. I have watched it several times and he didn't run like a horse that can be competitive in this race but Baffert obviously sees something he likes.

$5 Trifecta Animal Kingdom Dance City, Sway Away, Mucho Macho Man, Mr. Commons Dance City, Sway Away, Mucho Macho Man, Mr. Commons, Astrology, Dialed In Rationale: Because of the distance, Animal Kingdom should win. Maybe he won't, but I can't really guess on who would beat him down the stretch. The rest of the picks are the horses I see with potential to run a 95 or better Beyers and be a part of the trifecta. Horses that I considered, but am leaving out are Shackleford, Midnight Interlude, King Congi.

HG Preakness $10 Superfecta 11 / 9,10 / 3,5,6,7, 8 / 9,10 =$100 Thanks Dan

I'm going to step out on a limb and bet Baltimore Belle WP today . She might be a little stretch but I've been pretty hot lately so I guess I'll see if I'm walking around Lucky . Because I like UNDERDOG I'll be rooting for Nathan's HQ to win his connections the probable race of their lifetimes. Since I'm rooting I'll put a few bucks into it & a few in exs . Apart looks best in the shaeffer him & ColiZeo look like a short but likely ex. I went with Slews Answer in a stab against Paddy for PH purposes. This might become a super bomber profile so I might be betting something at a higher price level. In the interest of full disclosure I must confess to a blunder . I had it in my head that MMM was a BSBFFF 4 . When I was looking up the Preakness Players in my stuff I didn't find MMM so I looked him up and he was a BSBFFF 1 . I have to count myself lucky because I didn't have anything on him in the top slot in the Derby ! He might have won that and then I would have been really DUMB. MikeA you were right. I was LUCKY. I spent so much time flapping my jaws that I missed (to me) one of the most important details. 1s & 2s like the Preakness. Shack is a 2 . Midniight is a 2 . Concealed ID is heavy on the 1-x . Sway Away is a 5 /1/8 . Big Brown ,Afleet Alex, Loius Q & Pleasant Colony were 5s . Swayer seems to sway a little after he goes about a mile though. I'll pass on him.

In Preakness $10 exacta box 6-7-14 $10 exacta 7/6-1-9-14

HG Preakness As this race usually runs true to form. This more than any other year should prove interesting, as the last thing most of these horses have run is true to form. #11 Animal Kingdom I do believe, as do many others he is the horse to beat. However I have no true convictions on who else will hit the board so I will use several beneath him in a Super High-Five. #1 Astrology Might be in the stars for him today. Should not have a problem with the distance and may be ready for a big effort. #4 Flashpoint Tossing his Fla. Derby effort. He needs to be on or fighting for the lead. I believe he gets the lead and takes them farther than most expect, but perhaps not quite far enough. #6 Sway Away Think he has the biggest shot to upset the field. Should sit mid-pack and make a huge move at the top of the stretch. Just not sure if he can sustain it. # 9 Mucho Macho Man Probably the most consistent of these. Always gives a big effort. May not be in the winners circle but will definitely make his presence known. #10 Dialed In Will make a huge late run, but will be too far back to finish any closer than third. Wager: $1 Super High Five 11/ 1,4,6,9/ 1,4,6,9,10/ 1,4,6,9,10 / 1,4,6,9,10/ 1,4,6,9,10 $96 $4 tri 4/11/9 $4

BSB, just heading out the door 2 the track when i saw the 2 queen qoute. as the Sperminnator said..."i'll b back" does any 1 know if the maid was an illegal alien? cus if she's here legally whats all the fuss arnold is a true kenndy VQ

$15 trifecta Box. Animal Kingdom/Dialed In/Mucho Macho Man. $10 Animal Kingdom

Play it so,$5 exacta box,11-14-6,$5 exacta box,6-9-14,$1 tri,11w6,9,14,w 6,9,10,14.$1 tri,14w6,9,11,w6,9,10,11 and $22 to win on 14.Victorize the Preakness.

$10 trifecta 9/11/18 $14 trifecta 11/9/1,8 $6 TRIFECTA 9,11/9,11/6 $3trifecta 9,11/9,11/3,7,13,14 $16 trifecta 9/11/10

$50 tri key... dialed in on top of astrology & dance city.

Hi Dan, Thanks for all you do. Five days ago I asked this question in my notes: "On 14 days rest, why should I expect a jump in Dialed In's Beyers?" I did not have a good answer. Now I have 5.5 million. With the rapture coming on later, I'm playing a conspiracy theory: Zito used the Derby as a prep for the Preakness and this big bonus. $20 trifecta 10,9,11 $20 trifecta 10,8,11 $20 trifecta 10,6,11 $20 trifecta 10,1,11

$50 tri key... dialed in on top of astrology & dance city.

HG Preakness $50 Tri 10,11/14/10,11 I still think Dialed In is the best horse of this generation and will hope he proves so today. Animal Kingdom ran a great Derby and is a very talented colt, and I think he's likely second best. I liken the two to Street Sense and Curlin or Summer Bird and Quality Road in that I think these two are head and shoulders above the rest of this field and likely pretty close to one another in talent and ability. I think one of these two will win the race but surely the Derby took something out of at least one of them. I'm hoping Mr. Commons can wedge himself between these two as he has trained very well and if it is to be believed that he displaced in the SA Derby then he has even more of a right to improve. And why wouldn't you believe that he displaced if Shirreffs said so? I love watching Shackleford run but Romans had him cranked for the Derby and so I expect less from him today. I like Paddy O' Prado off the layoff and won't be trying to beat him in the pick 4. I'll try to catch prices in the first couple legs of the pick 4.

HG $50 tri:11/9,10/9,10

HG.. PREAKNESS .. $2.00 Hi-five part wheel: 1+10 w/ 3-8-9-11 w/ 3-8-9-11 w/ 3-8-9-11 w/ 3-8-9-11 = $96.00 .. $2.00 ex/box: 1-10 = $4.00 .. Total = $100 ... CHAAZZ

HG--- $100 tri--- Animal Kingdom/Sway Away/Mucho Macho

I had Animal Kingdom in the Derby and like him even better today. Pace should be quick but not suicidal and he figures to get a good trip again. AK was much the best May 7th. Of the Derby runners in here only Mucho Macho Man may improve. Check out his form cycle and recent work; he runs closer to the pace and finishes stronger today. The bets: $60 exacta: 11-9 $30 exacta: 9-11 $10 exacta: 11-13

Congratulations to Shackleford. He deserved to win the race it was a great performance. It reminded me of Rachel Alexandra holding off Mine That Bird in several ways and it would have been a shame to see Shackleford lose after running such a great race. I did worry for a second that Shackleford had hurt himself or something when he switched leads so dramatically in deep stretch. And while it slowed him down it seemed to also make Animal Kingdom hesitate just slightly, similar to what Blame did in the BC Classic with his drifting, and then as soon as I was worried something had gone wrong Shackleford re-broke and put it away. I had thought it would be a photo finish at one juncture in deep stretch and I'm sure plenty of others did as well. This year I wrote off Nehro in the Derby due to it being 3 starts in 6 weeks and then I wrote off Shackleford in The Preakness because of the short rest when both horses looked good to me otherwise. I guess the good ones can overcome the difficulty of running on a compromised schedule and you are rewarded when your horse can overcome obstacles and you stick with him. Congratulations to the connections and the players who got it right.

Dan, Did you box that AK-Shack exacta? Any tri's? Or, like me, did you have the right horses but just in the wrong order? You were spot-on about Flashpoint wanting nothing to do with this distance. I took a flyer on that one when he was 20-1. Less than 1 hour later, the damn horse is 14-1. That is a big move in the hour before post. Finally he floated back up to 15-1 or 16-1 before the entered the post. Liked that one a lot better at 20-1 than at 15-1. Lessons learned from the Preakness? Yeah, this is certainly the year of isolating the best half dozen horses and just boxing them. I keep putting the right horses on exotic wheels in the wrong order. All AK had to do was just get up there and MMM certainly hung for eternity in that stretch. What can you do, except regroup? On the positive side, the world did not end, no rapture, and a speed horse won the Preakness after setting off of a half mile in 46 and change. All is good in my world even if I am out about $75 bucks at the window.

Everyone, Thanks for joining chat last night. Lots of good insight into today's races and a few interesting longshots were given out. Had to leave early or missed chat? Not to worry, the transcript is available on the IMT website. Note: The transcript is in PDF format. and each race is bookmarked, like the PP's. You may have to click on the bookmark link to view. Also, join the fun this afternoon in the IMT CHAT ROOM starting at 2:00 PM. Laura

"Goin' up the country, don't you wanna go..........">>>Catchin' some Canned Heat>>>It's all in the stars.....LOL........Show 'em your Slewster A**........

100$ trifecta 10w11w9

$2 Exacta Box: 5, 7, 9, 10 and 11 $1 Tri Box: 5, 7, 9, 10 and 11

Despite the fact he did nothing on dirt in his 2 NY starts I can't get past 20-1 on King Congie. Keying he ,Mucho and Animal Kindom and hoping Dance City and/or Flashpoint can hang around for part. $1 Trifecta part wheel 3,9,11 / 3,4,8,9,11/3,4,8,9,10,11 $15 to win on Dance City, Flashpoint $20 to win King Congie

My play is $50 tri 9 w 6,11

Sway Away reminds my a bit of Street Sense. Take me to the river! $50 win on Sway Away $25 exacta Sway Away-Dialed In $15 exacta Sway Away Animal Kingdom $Ex exacta Sway Away Astrology See you all at the windows!!

Well, Congrats to Shack. Great race, great ride. Very nice horse. I thought under 47 was supposed to set things up for all the closers? 2 of the first 4 horses were up pretty close. And Shack certainly draws his stamina from his damsire Unbridled (once again stamina is found UNDERNEATH). Yet another classic winner that has a miler as a sire and a stout damsire (like AK). I guess it shows it does not matter how fast a speed horse goes early as long as he can get into a cadence and control the pace. Once Shack ran the first 4f in racehorse time-he slowed it down very well. Still, that early pace was key to utilize Shack's high cruising speed and make the field run a little faster and spread out. I believe Michael did play Shack and Animal Kingdom. Flashpoint showed he is best at 1 mile and under, but at least he helped shape an honest pace. I took a chance at 20-1, and then suddenly the horse is down to 14-1. I don't think MI or Sway Away really had any excuses. They did not even run early or late. I thought MI had a garden spot from what I was hearing on the radio. He stopped about as hard as Flashpoint with a quarter mile to go and bumped into Isn't he Perfect mid-stretch. Kind of sad about AK, too little too late and too far back. But he came with his run. Belmont is tailor made for that horse... Astrology ran well and at least I had him and AK on my tickets. The Slew angle had its merits there, Curt V. I had Shack underneath but not winning. Astrology is not as talented at 2 turns as the winner or runner up IMO, but he ran big and well develop. I had to listen to it on the radio while working. I was surprised Shack did not come back. In fact, Shack pulled away when Astrology tried to collar him and left that one behind. Big, big race by Shack. As for Dialed In? He is a closing miler IMO. Gotta love Nick Zito: It may have been "the best" 4th place in Preakness history!– “He got a little cut behind, but not bad. The 22-and-change was great and then they went in 1:12. They went fast enough early but then they slowed out. It didn’t work out. He still came with his run, like he always does. He’s a gallant horse.” Downey Profile Can we give up the ghost on Sway Away after several races at 2 turns. He is a miler with a good closing kick. IMO. I am willing to throw back Flashpoint in the sprinter's bin. Can we please toss Sway Away back to 7-8 furlongs while we are at it? The horse may win a couple at that distance. Just because a horse can close strong at 7 or 8 f does not mean he is suited for classic distances or even 2 turns.

$100 exact #6 over #7, sticking with Cali horses who have show some value this year in a race that sets up nicely for both.

HG Keganess, Going with 1s & 2s $3 exacta box 11,9,10,13,7,5 =$90 $1 tri 11 / 9,10 / 5,7,9,10,13 =$8 $1 tri 9,10 / 11 / 9,10 = $2 Thats the full hondo as Van Savant likes to say. I think AK will win but wouldn't be entirely shocked by any of the others on my ticket. I'll probably have to figure a better way to bet in real life. Thanks LSD & $.10

What the hay! Its only play money! $25 exacta 6,8 with 11 $20 exacta 3,4 with 11 $10 exacta 14/11

Lets make this short and sweet. $100 to Win on #6 Sway Away. Gomez is overdue and the way the pace will play out, sitting back seems smart.

There are only TWO Real Queens in my opinion. One is a "California Girl" that lives in Kentucky and drinks Guiness Stout Malt Liqour. The other is an "East Coast Girl thats Hip", hangs out at Harvard Yard and drinks anything with a PROOF on the label. LOL.

Due to my good fortune of winning HG for the Kentucky Derby, I'll try to win the Triple Crown. Unfortunately, Animal Kingdom won't be 20-1 in the Preakness, but I'm still on board. We will try the same $5 tri key that was successful for us in the Derby. The Preakness play #11 Animal Kingdom/#4 Flashpoint, #6 Sway Away, #8 Dance City, #9 Mucho Macho Man, and #10 Dialed In. Good luck to all.

HG Preakness $50 Ex Box 1-8 Crab Cakes, Beer, and Horseracing.....Doesn't get much better than that.....Enjoy!!!

I"ll bet the race this way $1 tri key 9/1,6,8,10,11/1,6,8,10,11 $1 tri 9/10/ 1,4,5,6,8,11,14 $1 tri 9,10/9,10/1,6,8,11 $5 ex bx 9&10 $3 ex 9/1,6,8,10,11 $40 win 9

50 dollar exacta Dance City- Astrology 25 dollar exacta Dance City- Midnight interlude 25 Dollar exacta Dance City- Shackleford

Should be a better race with 6 slugs out. Flasshpoint should tire Shackleford a bit and closers will be coming. This time Dialed goes by, Mucho does his usual in the money and Animal drifts to 3rd or 4th. $12 partwheeel Dialed over Mucho and Animal over Mucho, Animal, Shackleford, Astrology and Dance City and $4 super Dialed over Mucho over Animal over Shackleford.. Good racing luck to all today.

Preakness HG The bet: $50 Exacta Box-#1 to #11(Astrology to Animal Kingdom) Can't see all the horses running to form-that has not happened this year in the last six or seven preps. Think Astrology still has upside-3rd start in the form cycle and strong connections. Will not leave the Animal out of the mix as I am playing on his house money from the Derby. Very much rooting for a chance at a TC winner. Good luck to all.

Handigamble Only with the sheriff's money $4 Tri Box 1/2/6/13

Mucho Macho Man is always close good work on 17 says all systems go. no thanks on ANIMAL Kingdom at 3-1 or less Dialed in still a sucker bet. Astrology and Sway Away round it out for me. $50 Win MMM (9) $20 Exacta MMM- Astrology (9-1) $5 tri key MMM/ Astrology Sway Away Animal Kingdom (9 / 1 ,6,11) Hoping Paddy O'Prado needs one going with Brayshnikov in the dixie.

Love that Mr Commons drew the outside post ! He has positional speed and i envision him getting a perfect stalking position sitting between 3rd and 6th, and then pounce home around the turn fending off the deep closers. Love his recent 7 furlong works and expect him to run a huge race. the bets $ 1 tri : #14 Mr Commons /All/ #1 astrology,#6 sway away, #10 dialed in $ 1 tri: #14 Mr Commons /#1 astrology,#6 sway away, #10 dialed in/ All $ 14 : exacta box #14 Mr commons / #11 Animal kingdom good luck to all

HG Preakness: While I liked Dialed In in the KD, expecting a fast pace and could excuse his performance because of the pedestrian pace, I too am waiting for him to run a fast race. I am also concerned that he has a spotty workout pattern with no works since the KD. I further believe that if it were not for the ridiculous bonus, Dialed In would not be running in the race. I think Shackleford will not receive an uncontested lead and the toll of his last two races will finally be realized. I believe AK is the horse to beat and his competition will come from Midnight Interlude, Sway Away, and Mucho Macho Man. Thus, I will play the race as follows: $3 Tri Key: 11/ 6,7,9; $3 Super Key: 11/ 6,7,9; $3 Tri PW: 6,7,9/11/6,7,9; $3 Super PW: 6,7,9/11/6,7,9/6,7,9; $3 Tri PW: 6,7,9/6,7,9/11; $5 Ex Box 6,11. I will be rooting for AK as it is always exciting to have a TC opportunity even if it is not realized. Good Luck to everyone.

I'm going back to the well one more time as I really like Mucho Macho Man for the win today. He is getting better every race and is due to have a breakthrough performance. I think his grinding running style is actually better suited for the Belmont (and I think distance will help not hurt) but if Animal Kingdom bounces at all and Dialed In encounters any traffic trouble I think Mucho Macho Man is your winner. The others I will be using are: Dance City - I like him the most of the pacesetters as I'm thinking Shackleford could be due a regression and Flashpoint is a horse I consider a sprinter. Sway Away - I expect him to be sitting farther back than in the Arkansas Derby and coming with one late run. The jockey switch is a plus and he has shown talent before. Mr. Commons - A really talented horse with lots of potential upside but is probably going to be better on turf in the long run. I'm a big fan of Artie Schiller as a sire and El Prado as a sire of sires. Dialed In - He could very easily win this but Pimlico has a short stretch and I could see someone getting the jump on him and pulling away before he shakes clear of traffic. Animal Kingdom - I think he will win but I'm not betting him as there is no value in it and there is always the possibility he bounces off that terrific race in the Derby. My play: $20 WPS Mucho Macho Man, $2 trifecta 9 / 6,8,10,11,14 / 6,8,10,11,14

$50 exacta box Animal Kingdom and Sway Away

Vicstu, I saw the humor in your last few posts. I really was tongue-in-cheek in my responses. I can't help it if my picks in the Preakness turn out to be Slewsters. I had Soldat & Shack in the Derby as my 2 top horses{No Slew there}. Right after the Derby I posted a little tidbit....I asked if anybody saw Animal Kingdom & MMM both bearing out or drifting, 'cause I noticed it ? I got nary a response.. Lo & behold, our venerable Sheriff just posted the same item in his breakdown.. Wow ! How good am I to have noticed & posted it 2 weeks ago ? Therefore, I'm throwing them both out.. Now, since I'm no fan of a horse running a circa 1:53 in a 1 1/8{AK}, I'm looking new shooter. If Slew & Big Red did 1:45's {approx 40+ lengths diif.}, then I'm gonna go Slewster..I upgraded any horse who matched strides w/Adios Charlie...Since I think Alternation{Slewster}-{149.2} is your next Belmont champ, who outdueled AC to the wire, & Astrology who came on again vs. AC, I'm putting Astrology as my key horse...Slewster or no Slewster..And, at 13-1, I'll take my chances there. I told you once before I don't discuss TC talk 'til after the Preakness{Uncle Mo}. Remember that ? So all this preliminary TC talk about AK is preposterous. Every single year after the obvious Derby winner we have this perfunctory inane speech. AK might get hit by a bus crossing the street...LOL..Dialed In{Slewster} running for $6 MILLION ? If he aint keyed up your name is Stuvic.......Lmao.......Good luck. How does Stevie A. do in the Preakness ? Very well thank you....

The chat room is OPEN for after Preakness fun! Even Kegasus showed up!! http://www.ironmaidensthoroughbreds.com/Chatpg5.html

100 exacta mucho macho man to animal kingdom (9-11) I like the chalk and I am pulling for Motion but I am going for Ritvo to pull the upset - maybe mucho gets a better trip and outduels the favorite in the lane . . . plus from a wagering standpoint i dont like selecting chalk . . .

Animal Kingdom was 5th only 3 legnths back most of the Kentucky Derby. He didn't exactly "close". It will be interesting to see if he has his late run when the pace is faster. He ran the last 4f in :47 at the Derby but even decent horses should do that when running as slow as he did for the first 6f. Mucho is a one pace type with no kick late. I'll take a shot with some of the horses up front. $25 Exacta box Shackleford-Animal Kingdom $25 Exacta Box Dance City-Animal kingdom

trifecta (6,10,11),(6,9,10,11),(6,8,9,10,11) 3x4x5=60 exacta (6,10,11) boxed $6x6=36 total 60+36=96

TAZ ...nice win today with your QUEEN'SPLATEKITTEN at Woodbine in the 150K Marine Stakes. MKB ownership can be so much fun! HGPreakness Tencentcielo.....Give me a ZERO ...Thank you!

. . . .. Well as we like almost the same runners in almost the same order .. I make a moon shot .. with a $2 Tri ($40) and a $1 Super ($60) .. with the mythical $100 Tri ... Animal Kingdom (over) Mucho Macho Man, Shackleford, Midnight Interlude, Dance City, Dialed In (over) Mucho Macho Man, Shackleford, Midnight Interlude, Dance City, Dialed In Super ... Animal Kingdom (over) Mucho Macho Man, Shackleford, Midnight Interlude, Dance City, Dialed In (over) Mucho Macho Man, Shackleford, Midnight Interlude, Dance City, Dialed In (over) Mucho Macho Man, Shackleford, Midnight Interlude, Dance City, Dialed In ... I can't leave Dialed In out .. as I think he was "dogged" in the Derby preping for the the 6+ mil ..?

robertSD, Life always gets better when you live your own truth. Well said. i don't know enough about the sexual preferences of racehorse industry insiders, but in the showhorse world, the top male riders and trainers were about 50% gay in my experience.

This rendition of "the people's race" offers a variety of story lines and betting angles. In the interest of brevity, I'll stick to the latter. The most bedeviling of questions regarding big races is what to make of the past patterns, to wit, do you take a horse coming out of the Derby (7 out of last 10 Preakness winners)? Do you hone in on the failed Derby betting favorite rebounding for a score? How about them home dogs (Dan referred to Magic Weisner--there are numerous others who ran well on their home track, the most successful of which was Deputed Testimony)? And we haven't mentioned post position, hot horses, trainer trends, pace scenarios, or genetic predisposition...with the sheer density of data, one must call on an oracle, a seer with the clarity of vision to cut through the fog of doubt...Kegasus, O' divine ruler of the infield, what is in store for us this fine afternoon? $5 exacta 6/1,2,3,8,9 $2 exacta 1/2,3,6,8,9 $2 exacta box 1,2,3,6 $20 W 6 $10 PS 2 $1 tribute to Kegasus

I do think Dialed in will be over bet, but he has shown that he may be better than Shackleford. I don't think you can dismiss the fast second half of the derby that he threw down after the bizarre slow first half. AK was my derby pick, I'm sticking with him to win. My Dad always said it's better to cash a short ticket than to throw out a long loser. 50$ trifecta 11-9-10 50$ trifecta 11-10-9

I'm counting on Pimilico going to past form and being a speed favoring track. And also going with the horse for course theory. Actually none of the horses in the Derby or Preakness have ran the kind of Beyers numbers that would normally win any of the triple crown races. Conclusion a mediocre group of horses, meaning anything could happen. So my wagers would be: $35.00 exacta box #5 Shackleford and #13 Concealed Identity total $70.00 $5.00 trifecta box #5 Shackleford, #11 Animal Kingdom and #13 Concealed Identy total $30.00

i am planning on wagering the following: $20.00 exacta 11-1/ $10.00 exacta box 11-1/ $20 tri key 11/1-8-9 i am banking on a big effort from steve asmussen's astrology. mike smith has won at pimlico and the fact that pimlico played fair yesterday should build into a "third in cycle" huge effort from astrology. give him a pass at sunland, his first race of the season, and a pass at aqueduct in the jerome as that was only at a mile. mucho macho man is a hard knocker and cannot be left out, so i included him in my tri and dance city will also run well, with local jockey ramon dominguez in the saddle. animal kingdom will win. he is the best horse.

I have this race being a speed duel. I can't see the closer like Animal Kingdom making it. I'm playing a $2tri 8-1-5,$25ex 8/1-5,$1super 1,5,8/ 1,5,8/ 1,5,8/ all. That's just my input. Eric Archer

The pace will be quicker. The front runners will tire badly. Mucho Macho Man and Sway Away will be leading at the top of the stretch Animal Kingdom and Dialed In will try to run them down. The finish: Dialed In (10) Mucho Macho Man (9) and a dead heat Animal Kingdom (11) and Sway Away (6). My wagers: $5 tri box 9/10/11 $30 $3 tri box 6/9/10 18 $2 super 10 /9/6-11/6-11 4 $30 Ex 10/9 30 $18 Ex 9/10 18

HG another scramble...who is at the top of their game today. I am betting this race with a different mindset. I am looking for that dark horse who can make a nice payoff by running the race of their life. That horse i am leaning on is Norman Asbjornson. The trainer doesnt run many horses in graded stakes but when he does they seem to run big races. So with a little history of the race were a runner up horse helps for a hefty payoff, this is the strategy i am using for the Preakness.. .50 super 5,8,9,10,11/ 2 / 5,8,9,10,11/ 5,8,9,10,11 .50 super 5,8,9,10,11/ 5,8,9,10,11/ 2 / 5,8,9,10,11 .50 super 5,8,9,10,11/ 5,8,9,10,11/ 5,8,9,10,11/ 2 10 win 2

Better late than never. $2 Tri 4,11/6,7,9,10,11,14/6,7,9,10,11,14 Think Flashpoint either freaks or runs off the board. Animal Kingdom's Derby is good enough to win this.

I know many here, including Dan, want to toss MI's Derby and like him in the Preakness. I think he could bounce back, but I do not like him to win. Evidently, neither does Baffert. Baffert on Midnight Interlude: "“I’ve always won it (The Preakness) with the best horse of the crop,” he said. “I think I would feel better having The Factor in here.” http://www.paulickreport.com/news/triple-crown/preakness-notes-may-20-final-preparations/

hg 100 super 11-10-9-7

HDG: Animal Kingdom was clearly best on Derby Day and IMO he is eligible to further improve today. MMM ran well to get third and should contend again. If Shackleford could not hold on after a 1:13.4, don't see how he can today. Of the new shooter's, Mr Commons may have the most improvement potential (especially if you think the palate issue gives him a legitimate excuse in the Santa Anita) and he has been training very well for a trainer who (in my opinion) would not be here with him if he had no chance. HDG PLAYS: $7 SUP PW: 11 / 9-14 / 9-10-14 / 1-9-10-13-14........$84 $1.30 SUP PW: 9-11 / 9-11 / 10-14 / 1-10-13-14......$15.60 $0.10 SUP PW: 11 / 9 / 14 / 1-3-10-13.....................$0.40 Good luck to all, Dale

Preakness Day 2011: After much hemming and hawing, I am betting the deep closer Dialed In. The paces so far on the Pimlico dirt today suggest an honest pace that sets up for the closers. I like the way that Sheriffs is bringing Mr. Commons into this. I like the maturing Mucho Macho, and I think that Dance City may hang on for a piece. Astrology also looks like he should be very competitive; the Smith/Assmussen team has been good. $.20 supers: # 1,10,11 WT # 1,9,10,11,14 WT # 1,2,9,10,11,14 WT # 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,14 $4 to win on the longshot Mr. Commons. Good luck all!

Handi picks for the Preakness Stake" $5.00 exacta box 2-3-53-8-10

HG I have to go with My. Commons, my MKB horse. $40 win - 14 $30 exacta box - 11, 14

Annie ..I see that you are alive in the first 4 legs of that P5, and 3 in your P4 ...are your ears burning as we are talking about you in the Chat Room :) Good luck in The Preakness! estopo access

VQ, I have no idea of her immigration status or even if it matters..BUTTS: I'll give you my first impression. Arnoldo must have a substance abuse problem..Eeech.......

$50 exacta box of Animal Kingdom and Mr. Commons. Think the Sheriffs trainee is going to run by, as will the Derby champ

HG Preakness and My picks for the Preakness: $1 tri wheel (partial) 4,9,10,11 w/ 4,9,10,11 w/ 1,4,5,7,8,9,10,11 $72 $3 Super-4,9,11,10 $15 win on (4) FP. I like him as a longshot. My actual supers have AK on top as well. $100 Total I like FP of all the new shooters for the reasons that 'Syndicate stated...Do not believe he will win, but at around 20-1, why not? We really do not know how good this horse is.

My pic for the Preakness is as follows: $ 50 triactor key box: #11 Animal Kingdom with #9 MuchoMachoMan and #14 Mr. Commons Total wagered is $100. I think Animal Kingdom is the best horse and is impoving, MuchoMachoMan does not run a bad race and is working well enough to make the board again. I like the fact John Sherriffs is shipping Mr. Commons , he has better then average Shirreffs works in him. I think he thinks Mr.Commens can run. I do not like the fact that Smitty took Astrology,but Victor rides for Mr. Shirreffs. So bad post and all , he will still be in the second tier of the race,I hope he does not get used too much early. I still think the pace will be slow unless Flashpoint gets sent. Otherwise I expect a similar race to the Derby, 13 horses who can not get the distance and one that can...... Animal Kingdom. If I was to play the Superfecta I would use the horse for course Concealed Identity. As always I hope for a safely run race for all involved. Thanks Dan.

We're having fun in the Chat Room, come join us!! http://www.ironmaidensthoroughbreds.com/Chatpg5.html

$1 Tri box: Dialed In, Dance City, Mr Commons & Animal Kingdom (10,8,14 & 11) $4 Exactor Box: Dialed In, Dance City & Mr Commons (10,8 & 14) $22 to Show: Mr. Commons (14) $1 Super ( 8 & 14 with 10,8,14, & 11 with 10,8,14 & 11 with 9 & 6 )

HG Preakness! I had a scratched AE last week and caught 3rd in the Derby.. Need better this week. I'll take a stab with some chalk. HG 234: $100 11-9 Not much to say, 1-3 finishers of the Derby with the 2nd finisher out of this race. I don't like the new shooters, don't like Dialed In. Not a handicapping angle, I didn't look to hard at this race..

Chinglish???? Bleeh! Here's my crack at the P4 at PIM 9th-Taking the 2 (No Explaining) to win...2nd off the layoff...can sit close...but doesn't need the lead...JV and Attfield are lethal...will also include the 6 (Shared Acct) in case he is ready to roll off the layoff...and the 7 (Desert Sage)...Chad Brown seems to have this horse ready 10th Taking a flyer of the 6 (Our Dark Knight) Hoping JL gets him right behind the 8 (Colizeo) who is also on the ticker, along with class of field 2 (Apart) 11th (5) Baryshnikov in an upset of (4) Paddy O Prado, who I am hoping needs a race. Bary seems to be on the improve...close to pace (Lep and Maker do well together) Using both 12 Need a single. Going back to Animal Kingdom. Seems to coming in the right way. Proven going long. Lightly raced-on the improve. Good luck to all.

Dan, I am throwing out Flashpoint's Florida Derby. I am probably going to end up playing him underneath and maybe under... If FP got away with a speed favoring track in his Huchensen Stakes at GP, explain Little Drama going from last to 3rd and why didn't Travelin Man put up more of a fight in the stretch since he was the pacesetter? Those two events go counter to your conclusion. Just asking, because I am trying to make heads and tails of all of this...

HG Peakness It seems like I'm married to Sway Away. I also thought that Dialed In will run much better this time, but Mucho Macho Man and Flashpoiint scare me a bit. I think Mr. Commons has a chance for the exotics. Make it simple. $100 EX 6/10

Preakness Picks: $1 Super: 9,11/8,9,11/8,9,10,11/1,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,13 - ($48) $10 Ex: 9-8,11 11-8,9 ($40) $2 Tri: 11/8,9,10/8,9,10

Dan, HGPreakness $25 Tri: 11/9/1,5,8,10 Sometimes when we analyze a race it becomes ridiculously humorous. We're looking at pace, breeding, connections, times, surfaces, etc. The list goes on and on. I see something so simple here, so I'm going to keep it simple. Animal Kingdom is the only horse in the race who is undefeated at distances of 1 1/8 or more. In fact, if one looks closely at his form, not only is he undefeated at the "classic" distances, but he seems to win them with ease. I called Daily Dub 5 minutes before the Derby and told him that there was one horse who looked particularly like a monster in the post parade. That horse was Animal Kingdom. We had watched all the Derby Preps, and the Spiral was the one I thought was the most visually impressive. It was the turn of foot. The greatest horses I have ever seen, (Zenyatta and Goldikova come to mind), have that ability to turn it on late. Is Animal Kingdom as good as the aforementioned greats. I don't know, but I hope that we get a chance to find out on June 11th. As for now, I'll look forward to his turn of foot turning for home on 5-21-2011.

If speed holds as it has been the past few days, then maybe Flashpoint can sneak away on the front and steal it, but if not then I expect Dance City to continue to improve in his third start off the layoff for the formidable Pletcher/Dominguez duo, and that nice 5 furlong bullet a few days ago seems to show that he is primed and ready. $1 Trifecta: 4-8 with 1-4-7-8-11 with 1-4-7-8-11 $5 Exacta: 4 with 1-7-8-11 $14 Exacta: 8 with 1-4-7-11

HG: Ok, I tried really really hard this week to throw Shackleford out but I just dont see what so many others do. The slow pace in the derby aside, he still ran a great race considering only 1 horse all weekend went gate to wire and he was life and death to do so. Shack finished a length away from 2nd. All of the other "speed" in the derby ran up the track. Sure he doesnt have the breeding for the distance but he is a very game animal. As long as he breaks well he will be there IMO. I also dont believe he needs to be out front to run his best. The pace will be faster tommorow but that doesnt neccessarily mean he will be hurt by it. If he can lay up close without being too rank He might really surprise. As long as the track is playing fair and he doesnt look bothered like he did in the fountain of youth he should be fine. $40 win #5 $ 20 exacta box 5-11 $10 tri 5/ 9-11/9-11

robertSD ...it's a pleasure to meet you. And I'm glad you are back posting again. I have always enjoyed your take on the horses. Del Mar, I have been only once ...but it was a memorable weekend. Hopefully I can get back in your neck of the woods again :) 'onersu from'

While ANIMAL KINGDOM was a deserving winner in the Derby, I don't think he is worthy of Triple Crown immortality. TC winners, for me, are the hallowed titans of the sport. I don't need to list the names. Can AK win it? Of course. This is a weak lot. But something tells me he's not going to get it done. That aside, AK is an obvious favorite in the Preakness Stakes, and the expected hot pace should only reinforce his kick. I will use him on top with SHACKLEFORD. Shack did not get the job done at CD despite the pedestrian fractions, but we all saw where the other speed ended up. I actually give him extra points for lasting as long as he did. In the Preakness, I will hope he sits the trip behind dueling FP and DC and gets first run at the top of the stretch. MUCHO MACHO MAN is always in the money so I will use him underneath. I like MMM's win chances more in the Belmont because of his galloping style, despite the light stamina breeding on his mum's side. HG Preakness $40 Exacta Box 5/11 $10 Exacta Key 5,11 over 9 Good luck everyone!

HG Preakness. $76.00 win #9. $2.00 exacta box 9-10-7. $2.00 trifecta box 9-10-7. Good luck to all.

$60 exacta with animal kingdom over mucho macho man. $20 tri key with animal kingdom over mucho macho man and dialed in.

HG 234 1) Should get good trip, not sure he wants 1 3/16. 2) Should fade in stretch. 3) Poor dirt form. 4) Adds pace, should fade we real running starts. 5) Doesn't get easy lead, not as good without it. 6) Looks like closing sprinter, maybe for 3rd. 7) Poor KD, I'll toss again. 8) Speed player doesn't want distance. 9) Always fires, due for bounce? 10) More pace, but not sure how good he is? 11) Loved in KD, still love! 12) Doesn't belong here. 13) 2/2 Pim, but MUCH tougher here! 14) No real excuse for loss in SA Derby. $50 exacta 11-9 $25 tris 11 w 9 w 6,10 Good luck to all!

$60 exacta of animal kingdom over mucho macho man $20 tri key with animal kingdom over mucho macho man and dialed in Animal kingdom is a champion and he will prove it today; he is a powerful finisher. mucho macho man is always in the money. fast pace will help dialed in close and get up for 3rd.

It all comes down to the track and the earlier races... Does speed hold up and finishes or is the track favoring deep closers... If speed holds up then it's Astrology with Schackleford and 3M... If its a closing track today, then its Animal Kingdom with Dialed In with 3M... If stalkers are finishing and holding form then its 3M with Sway Away with Dance City... HG234 Preakness: $5 Exacta Box: Mucho Macho Man, Dance City, Astrology ($30) $5 Exacta Box: Animal Kingdom, Dialed In, Mucho Macho Man ($30) $5 Exacta Box: Sway Away, Dance City, Animal Kingdom ($30) $10 Triple: Dance City, Mucho Macho Man, Astrology ($10) Wishing for luck again and good luck to all.......

I like animal kingdom to run good again and win it over mucho macho man....I think dance city can get 3rd of his good 3rd in arkansas derby and he should be improving. Sway away may stay on for 4th over dialed in. $60 exacta with animal kingdom over mucho macho man. $20 partial wheel trifecta with animal kingdom over mucho macho man over Dance City & Dialed In.

HG $100 tri 11/9/14 Animal Kingdom - Repeat of Derby Mucho Macho Man - the Danger Mr Commons _ Improving Colt flattenned after good middle move on dead rail in SA Derby

Dan, here's my picks. 20win-#9 MMM; 10exbx-6,9; 5tribx-6,9,11; 2supbx6,9,10,11; 2sup HI-5-9,6,11,10,13 I like MMM because he is still not 3 yrs. old yet,(june); I think sway away is sitting on a big race; Animal kingdom is not triple crown material, but he should be in the money;Dialed in suffers from having Leparoux on his back; and Concealed Identity has two wins on this track. When all is said and done, I think Mucho Macho Man will end up being the best of this years' 3 yr. old crop! .

$1 Tri AK-Dialed In/AK-Dialed In-Dance City-MMM/Mr. Commons/AK-Dialed In-Dance City-MMM-Mr. Commons - $24 $1 SF AK-Dialed In/AK-Dialed In-Dance City-MMM/Mr. Commons/AK-Dialed In-Dance City-MMM-Mr. Commons/AK-Dialed In-Dance City-MMM-Mr. Commons - $48 $28 Win - Dialed In I'm predicting fast fractions set by Shackleford and Flashpoint with both giving way at the top of the stretch. That will leave MMM and Dance City to move forward from just off the pace with AK and Dialed In closing fast from the back. Not worried about any of the other new shooters, but Shirreffs isn't going to fly a horse from California to Maryland unless he thinks he has a chance to win.

I like Astrology , AK and DI exacta and tris Supers add ALL

$100 Win - Sway Away (last two trouble trips)

History suggest Derby horses do very well in the Preakness. Especially the winner. $50 exacta 11-9 $50 exacta 11-10

100 Triactor Straight-1-Animal Kingdom -2-Dialed In -3-Mucho Macho Man

Saturday May 21 Good luck to everyone today...I'll be at Belmont Park in what is suppose to be sunny skies and 80 degrees, much needed after a week of grey skies and rain. Full card selections and my key wagers as I notice I had listed the wrong program numbers on some of my wagers thus the double post: Belmont Race 3: DIGGER KARAKORUM If both parts of the 1 entry is running, will void the wager as I'm against betting entries in NY. If the 1A is scratched, then Digger Karakorum is the selection as he ran against the red hot Katskill Bay last out and is in better form than his main competition. The 4 is the morning line favorite and beat him on April 16 but that was at Aqueduct and more importantly was when he was with Jacobson. Form has tailed off in two starts for Terracciano but let's hope he is made the favorite. Digger Karakorum has run 4 times at Belmont with 4 seconds and expect with the inside draw to be on the lead from the start and into the winner circle. 20 Exacta 1/3-6-7 ; 5 Triple 1/3-6-7 ; 10 Triple 1/7/3-5-6 ; From Race 2 5 Pick 4 2-6/1/3/2-3-5-6-9 ; 10 Pick 4 2-6/1/3/5-6 Belmont Race 4: SEATTLE LOUIE Ran a game race last out when going mile distance as he was involved in a speed duel early and had the misfortune of being in between horses for the run down the backstretch. He is drawn outside the morning line favorite who has shown speed but is making his first start off a 9 month layoff having drawn the rail. Let Seattle Louie do what he does best, run on the lead from the start, cross over on the rail which forces Castellano's hand and take this field wire to wire. 5 Super 3/1-2-4 ; 5 Super 3/2-4/1-2-4 ; 5 Super 3/2-4/2-4/ALL Belmont Race 9: ABSINTHE MINDED A small upset expected in here as Absinthe Minded will find herself loose on the lead early and perhaps when pressure is applied by the heavy favorite, Garcia will have something in the tank and spurt clear for the win. No doubt Awesome Maria has looked awesome in her two wins, but those were both at Gulfstream and she is also giving away 7lbs to a filly who is loose early. 50 Double 2/12 ; 20 Triple 2/3-4 ; 20 Triple 2/3-4/3-4-5 Other Belmont Races 1: TOCCO D'ORO with Victorious Leader underneath for exotics (turf only) 2: AUGUST OSAGE over Bold Warrior 5: UNBRIDLED DANGER / 2-3-5-8-9 6: 1-3-4-7-8 7: CENTRIPITAL / 1-2-6-7-12 8: 2-4-5-10-12 10: MORE THAN LADY / 3-5-6-10-11 Pimlico Race 4: PAYTON D'ORO I am surprised to see Life At Ten listed at morning line odds of 4/5 as her return race this year was quite disappointing and with the chaos from Breeders Cup to the return race, hard to endorse. Her best races come when she runs near the lead but with expected speed shown from the 1 and 3, the pace appears to favor Payton D'Oro who ran the best race in her career at this very track. 1 Super 2/3-4-5-6 ; 5 Super 2/6/3-4-5 ; 5 Super 2/3-4-5/6/3-4-5 Pimlico Race 6: DISKI DANCE May pull off a slight upset in here as the race has some speed horses but only one of them, Diski Dance likes to run on the front end. The addition of blinkers should ensure a catch me if you can effort and if no one presses in the first quarter, let's hope Arroyo tries to blow the race wide open during the middle stages as that is when he runs his fastest splits. 1 Super 7/3-4-5-8-9 ; 1 Super 7/3-5/3-4-5-6-8-9 ; 10 Exacta Box 7/3-5 ; 30 Win 7 Pimlico Race 10: EIGHTTOFASTTOCATCH His two recent victories reminds me a lot of the Zito runner, S. S. Stone who is now on the sidelines after winning the Grade 3 Skipaway in that they both have the same running style and ironically two of the contenders in here exit the aforementioned race. Eighttofasttocatch used to be speed crazy, running off early and trying to take the fields wire to wire. But in his recent two races, Sheldon Russell has had to rate the horse as there were others faster early and this has transformed the horse into a different level. By being able to rate early, he now makes his move when they round the far turn and has been able to maintain that move to the wire. There is some speed but not the need for the lead type that has drawn on the outside in the 6, 8 and 9. If no one wants the lead, Sheldon can be alone in front but on the lead or slightly off the lead, can Eighttofasttocatch be rated as he did in those two starts and then put away the field with his middle move. If he can rate again, he can make it three straight. 1 Super 3/1-2-4-5-8 ; 1 Super 3/2-5/1-2-4-5-7-8 ; 10 Exacta Box 3/2-5 ; 30 Win 3 Pimlico Race 12: FLASHPOINT The premise for FLASHPOINT winning the Preakness is the belief that he will speed pop this field. Having drawn inside Shackleford and Dance City, FLASHPOINT will use his sprint speed to get over to the rail and lead the pack and force both Shackleford and Dance City to take back as they won't risk getting into a protracted speed duel. The change of trainer from Dutrow to Ward is actually taken as a positive, as Ward who is known for being one of the best two year old trainers and now has slowly making a name for himself in Europe, still does his best with horses who like to run on the front end and this is what FLASHPOINT does best. No doubt something was amiss in the Florida Derby as he broke slow, then took a few steps to his right and was hung three wide for most of the race. Speed horses, especially sprinter types, they have to be in the race from the get go and not be asked to rate when they have always been asked to run as fast as they can from start to finish. Drawing inside the other speed, the connections have no choice but to send or risk being pushed back and thus that's the gamble. 1 Super 4/2-9-10-11-13 ; 5 Super 4/9/10-11/2-10-11-13 ; 5 Super 4/9/10-11 Other Pimlico Races 5: PRINCESS MALKA 7: JOES BLAZING AARON 8: NATHAN'S HQ / 7-9-5-8 9: DESERT SAGE over Shared Account 11: BARYSHNIKOV over Paddy O'Prado Monmouth Race 10: JUST SAY GOODBYE As her name states, Just Say Goodbye as she leads this field wire to wire. Both the 1 and 3 have some early speed but both have been asked to stalk in their races and this provides Paco Lopez on board the selection the ability to clear early and without much pace pressure early, enough to take them all the way. 1 Super 5/1-2-3-7 ; 5 Super 5/3/1/ALL ; 5 Super 5/3/ALL/1 ; 5 Super 5/3/1-2-7 ; 50 Double 5/3 Monmouth Race 11: SUCCESSFUL MISSION Horse for course Get Serious returns to the races having won 10 of 13 starts at Monmouth but this is a tough field he faces which isn't help by having drawn the outside post. The selection is Successful Mission who has won 2 of 3 starts this year with the lone loss when chasing the fleet Little Mike, but having drawn inside of Get Serious, let's hope Chucky allows Successful Mission to run on the lead rather than concede to Get Serious. 1 Super 3/1-2-6-7-8 ; 1 Super 3/7-8/1-2-6-7-8-9

I haven't played handi-gambling in a long time! I really like sway away and was disappointed when he did not make the derby field. Too bad Pat V. Moved on him too soon in the Ark. Derby. All he would have needed was a third place finish, and he could only manage 4th. Give me the following: $40.00 exacts 6-10 $40.00 exacts 6-11 $10.00 exacts 6/8-9 Good luck everyone tomorrow!!

All - Stay with me here for a bit as it will take a moment to understand how this post reflects on horse racing. Momentarily off topic (kinda) it's been quite a few weeks in the sports world when it comes to players, executives, sports talk show hosts and allies standing up for gay equality -- with a few of those actually coming out of proverbial closet -- then again it's 2011 so you would think it shouldn't even matter but it does. You had allies such as Brendan Ayanbadego (NFL), Sean Avery (NHL), Charles Barkley (NBA), Grant Hill (NBA) all providing public support for the gay community. You had Phoenix Suns CEO & President (NBA) Rick Welts, Former Villanova basketball star Will Sheridan, recent PBA (bowling) Rookie of the Year Scott Norton and NYC ESPN sports radio personality Jared Max all come out as gay in a matter of weeks. How does this relate to our amazing horse racing blog? Well for three plus years (beginning in 2007) I was a public handicapper with his own website -- equiedge.com. I had been following the thoroughbreds since I was a fresh faced teenager (16) whose first trip to the races (Del Mar) hooked me for life. Later in life I wanted to try and make a living doing what I love -- handicapping the thoroughbreds -- so I created my website after being laid off from my media advertising executive career. In the time I had the website there came occasion to be asked personal questions -- such as, "What does your wife think about you spending so much time on the races?" -- seems I never quite answered but deflected. Why deflect? Well because I didn't have a wife, but rather had a boyfriend -- at least in the beginning -- seems I'm single again! Yup I am gay. And I worried (rightly or wrongly) that if my customers knew this simple (though personal) fact that it might well impact my business -- in a negative way, of course. It's not as if such a personal question came up often but I prided myself on having a personal connection with my customers when appropriate so it definitely came up in those three plus years. While I might have been (mostly) out in my personal life I was surely not out in my professional life during the website. I understand the struggle many have with this conflicting fact. To be honest I have been out in my work place (at least to co-workers) most all of my adult life but a few times (like the website) I have not. I can't say I am terribly proud of that fact. It's important to have visibility. Really important. Who knows how those even on this blog will now interact with me on those occasions I do post? There were a few times previously (usually following some off-color remark that I felt was tinged with something not quite gay friendly) when I considered sharing this fact with everyone but in the end I stayed quiet. Interestingly I have also known that more than a few of those involved in horse racing were (are) gay. Maybe it's more prevalent than even I know. Who's to say for sure. That said, I was always curious as to what other trainers, executives, etc. were also gay. What is important, however, is that we all live authentic lives as that will not only help us but also those gay youngsters growing up feeling alone as if no one understands. Living in families and communities who shun them just for being who they are. I suppose this is my little (I'm no public figure) way of saying "It Gets Better" and that it's important to be honest with not only yourself but those whom you deem friends. Sorry for the long (somewhat off-topic) post but you never know who might be gay and out here on the world wide web reading a horse racing blog in need of a little encouragement. Thanks for listening. - robertSD (mail@equiedge.com)