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HandiGambling 274 (Santa Anita Turf)
Friday's HandiGambling 274 exercise is the seventh race at Santa Anita, a $40,000 starter allowance for 3-year-olds at one mile on turf.
REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE, PLEASE CONTACT CSERVICE2@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE AND THEN POST THE NEXT WEEK'S RACE SELECTION DIRECTLY TO THE BLOG.
PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.
Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.
Please post your plays and analysis to the blog.
PLEASE GIVE YOUR NAME OR BLOG MONIKER AT THE END OF THE HG PLAY AND/OR ANALYSIS.
Please separate the play from the analysis and label the play "HG" with the program numbers (instead of the horse's name) for easier scoring.
In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per person please.
I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
Best of luck to all.
As of this writing, the turf condition is FIRM.
It's a competitive race and I would have to go five deep in multi-race wagers. Instead, I'll merely watch with interest.
#7 QUALITY ELUSION adds blinkers for his second start of the year and didn't have an easy trip when fifth in his turf debut at Golden Gate on November 27. That race was run over yielding ground and Quality Elusion broke a step slow from the gate. He was three wide at the back of the pack going into the turn and was bumped repeatedly while racing on the far outside in the stretch. He finished ahead of #4 DANGER RANGER twice on polytrack at Del Mar last year and may be a better price than that rival. Trainer Terry Knight scored with Cut Fastball, a colt wearing blinkers for the first time at 21-1 odds, at Santa Anita during the fall. Quality Elusion is worth a small HandiGambling stab. Knight has some interesting Formulator Stats (18-63, 29%, $1.90 ROI over the past five years going sprint to route and 5-40, 13%, $2.07 ROI with runners wearing blinkers for the first time).
#10 BABY BLAKE goes two turns this afternoon as he makes his second start following a three-month freshening. In his most recent outing, a starter allowance on dirt at six furlongs, Baby Blake dueled several pace rivals into the ground, emerged with the lead in the stretch and faltered in the final furlong to the late-running favorite. It was a good effort for Baby Blake, who may have things easier on the lead this time. Baby Blake handled grass just fine when a narrowly-beaten second two back and should be prominent when the field swings into the stretch.
#1 SHOWMETHEMONEYJIM whipped Cal-bred maiden claimers when allowed to coast on the lead in his two-turn debut, but he may have to go faster chasing Baby Blake early in this spot. Both the second- and third-place finishers from that February 9 race returned to finish second on dirt and Showmethemoneyjim has some grass in his pedigree. The sire, Ministers Wild Cat, is 6-37 (16%) with first-turf performers and the broodmare sire does well with grass horses. Showmethemoneyjim figures to be on the chase from his inside post and a repeat of that 65 Beyer Speed Figure he earned on dirt last time would make him a contender here.
#5 TRUETAP makes his third start of the form cycle while adding blinkers for high-percentage trainer Steve Asmussen. The barn does very well with the equipment change and Truetap may get into the race a little quicker with the new blinkers. Still, he figures to rate in midpack during the backstretch scrimmage and may need pace and race luck to adequately setup his late kick. He acted like he wanted more distance when a rallying second going six furlongs over the Woodbine polytrack on September 17.
#9 TIO VIC wasn't disgraced when second for a $40,000 tag over "good" going at Hollywood three starts back. Most recently, over the Tapeta surface at Golden Gate, Tio Vic finished behind next-out winner Next Light, a gelding that earned a 76 Beyer in taking a $40,000 starter allowance on the main track at Golden Gate on March 11. Tio Vic goes out for the very dangerous trainer/jockey combination of Jerry Hollendorfer and Rafael Bejarano and could work out a good stalking trip while racing in the clear. The gray colt shouldn't be taken lightly.
As for the others,
#2 GO TO THE PULPIT makes his turf debut for Mike Pupye, a trainer that is 15-75 (20%, $2.02 ROI) over the past five years with first-time grass performers. Go to the Pulpit's sire is 2-10 (20%) with first-time turf runners and the dam has foaled one grass winner. Go to the Pulpit is slowly improving for Puype and the route distance will not be a problem. He finished ahead of two of today's runners when second in his first start against winners and wouldn't be a surprise.
#3 WAR POLITICS needed seven starts to break his maiden and he did so when entered for $28,000 sprinting on February 25. He didn't do much running in his only prior turf start to date and will take a big step in class as he faces winners for the first time. The runner-up behind War Politics on February 25 returned to finish a close third on grass with a 71 Beyer.
#4 DANGER RANGER showed improved speed on December 31, his first start as a gelding, before faltering in the stretch. Claimed from that race by Bill Spawr (23-95, 24%, $2.55 ROI off 61-180 day layoffs), Danger Ranger will try grass (sire 4-45, 9% with first-turf runners) and two turns for the first time. He's lost ground from the stretch call to the wire in all three starts versus winners, but is a half to a turf winner and could improve on the surface switch. He shouldn't be too far off the early leaders under Joel Rosario.
#6 THE BIEN'S GIFT, is by Domestic Dispute (4-71, 6% with first-turf runners) from the female family of Houston. He goes third off the bench for Paddy Gallahger, a trainer that shows good recent numbers with first-time grass performers. The Bien's Gift has stamina in his pedigree and may attempt to come from out of it this time around.
#8 ELLO GUV has good turf form and we can excuse his most recent defeat over the Tapeta surface at Golden Gate. He finished ahead of next-out Tapeta winner Red Danger (74 Beyer in $40,000 starter allowance) when second at this level two back at Golden Gate, but needs a slight Beyer boost to make his presence truly felt.
#11 TIZPAT rallied from well off the pace to defeat $30,000 maiden claimers on dirt (defeated War Politics) and now tries grass for trainer Jerry Fanning. The sire is 2-12 (17%) with first-turf runners and the stakes-placed dam is from the female family of French Group 2 winner Soft Machine. Tizpat could be outrun early and may be left with too much to do when the real racing begins.
1. Quality Elusion
2. Baby Blake
For HandiGambling purposes only, I'll play this ticket:
$50 Win/Place - #7 Quality Elusion
Best of luck to all.
Annie, No I didn't & I'll give it go this week if I can make it there.. "If you make it there, you can make it anywhere, SA, SA, SA, SA......" Curt V.
Curt V, Hope you didn't try the system at SA today. Unless you got it of course. It was a very nice payoff, but I should have mentioned it's best not to play it on their rare rainy days. The resulting scratches, particularly in the turf race, threw everything out of whack. I stayed away from it today for that reason. When both As (Unzip Me and Halo Dolly) scratched and also one of the two Bs (Bench something) there was no semblence of an oddsline left. This allowed for a D horse to dash out there and win wire to wire on the wet main track. It probably would have required taking all 5 that were left. Anyway, much more chaotic results than usual. :) Annie
Rebel MKB placings: 1st- ALEX F'S Secret Circle 2nd-PATRICK S' Optimizer 3rd-BYANOSE'S Scatman 6th-KEITH L'S Najjaar 7th-ALYDARANDEASY'S Adirondack King 8th-CAPT. RON'S Sabercat 10th-MOLESAP'S Reckless Jerry 12th-BIGEASY BIGCHOK'S Unbridled's Note Special congratulations to ALEX, Too bad you tried to beat your own horse. :) Hope you didn't lose too much. Annie
Big MKB exacta and trifecta in the Rebel!!! ALEX F'S Secret Circle WON PATRICK S' Optimizer - 2nd BYANOSE'S Scatman - 3rd That's 2 first round MKBs in 1st and 2nd, and a 2nd round MKB in 3rd. :) Rest to follow. Annie
That makes it 3 for 3 in the MKB races today! JEANNE'S Raconteur WINS the Private Terms Stakes. Jeanne, I know you're happy about that. :) Yes, those poor other horses just don't have a chance if there is an MKB horse in the race. I have no doubt that we will make it 4 for 4 in the Rebel today. :) Annie
Curtis V Slewster, I read on the previous thread that you are thinking of trying the famous Annie Pick 5 Method. LOL! A couple of notes for you if you are brave enough to jump in: You can pretty much ignore the Ds. They almost always LOOK like Ds. Ones you wouldn't want to be supporting with oats and hay, but it does happen, although very very rarely. You need to be careful of the Cs though, one of them pops up every now and then. But, the vast majority of the races will be won by the As and Bs. Its been like this ever since I started playing the Pick 5 in So. Cal. It's just the way it is. It would work for the Pick 6 too, but with that $2.00 minimum it is much harder to take enough As and sometimes Bs, and to spread deeply enough in the spread races, so I've been concentrating on the Pick 5. Well, as long as Jon White doesn't read this blog and start making D horses low odds, we'll be OK. LOL! Good luck! Annie
I'm putting this out there for the Fisherman, because he keeps telling us on PH he reads the blog. Now go read my analyses. Every one of them is for you. ButtZ:This one is especially for you. R9 @ Laurel..#1 Romp City, isn't a Slewster on the Looster, buttZ: I hope she runs like one. Has Housebuster & UR old time fave Ta Wee, who is a 1/2 to the Doctor..Ta Wee was a champion in '69 & '70 & the Doctor is bang up to only the SLEWSTER himself..Oh my God, what I would pay to see thoes 2 square off. Name that Tune, NO!! Name your track record..That's enough already BSB... Get your rump back in the hump, & start blogging again........Okay.. I miss you Blackseabass...Can't you see I'm crying ? Heeheehee...Seriously..Get your BUTTz back....... Curt V.
Another MKB winner! BLACKSEABASS' Stat wins at GP! This was in spite of the fact that his owner is lost at sea. BSB loved his name and had said he didn't care if he never won a race, he loved him anyway. Well, turns out he can run. :) BSB, don't be afraid of this e-mail/social networking thing. I know it's scary. There are more strange people...er, strangers on these things than there are fish in the sea, but it's not too bad. It's only a little different from the old Formblog. :) I'm sure that BSB bet his boy, STAT, even though he won't talk to us anymore. Annie
10 cent O for me in the HG. again thanks MH01
YAY, ALAN! I see Alan hammered his STREET LIFE to make him 9-5 and he won the Broad Brush Stakes! WTG, Alan! SR VEGAS' stakes/claimer/stakes horse finished somewhere, but alas it was worse than 4th. She may want to distance herself from this MKB, as technically he was claimed away from her. :) Annie