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Friday's HandiGambling 267 exercise is the eighth race at Santa Anita, a $32,000 maiden claimer for 3-year-olds at one mile.
Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.
Please post your plays and analysis to the blog.
Please separate the play from the analysis and label the play "HG" with the program numbers instead of the names of the horses.
Past performances are available at the previous blog post.
In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference.
One entry per person please.
I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
***
Let's scratch #9 I FEEL FREE, #11 FLYING MARINE, #12 TEANCUM, #13 CHEEZY BREEZY and #14 MR. PADRE.
The main track is FAST.
***
I'll take my chances by going two deep in multiple-race wagers, but I do realize there are several logical contenders in this heat.
#6 MIDNIGHT CON, a $65,000 buyback as a juvenile, has never raced on dirt and has never raced this cheaply. He may have hung just a bit after chasing an odds-on pacesetting winner in a three-horse race contested over a speed-favoring cushion track surface on December 4. That runner, stakes-placed Call Me Kelly, returned to finish third in an open $40,000 claimer with a 65 Beyer Speed Figure while last-place finisher Tale Be Told came back to place third at this level with a 55 Beyer. This will be Midnight Con's third start as a gelding and he could work out a solid trip tracking from close range. I don't think the additional distance will post a problem as the dam scored four route victories in her career and trainer Jeff Mullins has been hot at this meet.
Trainer Doug O'Neill saw enough in #8 WAR POLITICS ($15,000 yearling, $37,000 juvenile) to claim the son of War Front for $30,000 two starts back at Hollywood. In his first start for these connections, War Politics was confidently hiked up out of the selling ranks and he finished evenly in the slower division of maiden special weights going a mile on December 30. The fourth-place finisher in that race returned to graduate on grass with an 80 Beyer Speed Figure. War Politics drops back down, switches to top jockey Rafael Bejarano and adds blinkers for this start. He hasn't shown much early speed in his career, but projects to be rallying in the late stages. The distance should be fine as both of the dam's wins came routing and she is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Awesome Lady (310K).
As for the others:
#4 JUAN'S TWIN is an intriguing longshot. The Cal-bred made a premature midrace bid two starts back against fellow statebreds and did not have the easiest of trips when returned to the races on December 17. He'll stretch out around two turns for the first time with a pair of stamina-building workouts on display and could be forwardly-placed going into the first turn. Only two of the seven runners to come back from that December 17 heat returned to crack the trifecta, however (best Beyer of 59). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winner Super Avie, who placed in the Grade 1 Hollywood Oaks in 1988.
#3 TAKE NO PRISONERS is an obvious contender dropping in class for Bob Baffert. An $85,000 weanling that resold for $75,000 as a yearling, Take No Prisoners is dangled for $30,000 after showing brief speed against the promising Empire Way (only beaten 2 3/4 lengths in the Grade 1 CashCall Futurity) in his career debut over the Hollywood cushion track. By Giant's Causeway, he should appreciate today's added distance and he looms a threat to wire this field under Corey Nakatani. The turf-winning dam is a full sister to stakes-winner Lucky Pulpit (209K) and is a three-quarter sister to multiple stakes-placed router Drewman.
#2 AT LAST A WILDCAT's best effort came as a first-time gelding on November 12, but one has to wonder if he is simply a better performer on synthetic surfaces. In two dirt races (both as an intact colt), he didn't finish ahead of another horse. He blew out a bullet three furlongs in preparation for his route debut and exits a key sprint at Hollywood (the winner returned to take a $40,000 claimer on grass with a 65 Beyer while the eighth-finisher graduated for $30,000 on dirt with a 66 Beyer). The dam is a half-sister to multiple graded-winning router Truly a Judge. I'm expecting slight improvement here, but he might be best played on the bottom of exotic wagers.
#10 STORMY BOB didn't do much in his career debut going long on December 30. Over the past five years, however, trainer Mike Mitchell is 23-57 (40%, $2.58 ROI) with second-time maiden claimers. The second dam was a stakes-winner, but Stormy Bob must avoid a wide trip from the far outside post position.
#7 ALREADY THERE is a Cal-bred making his third start as a gelding, his first start for a tag and his first race on dirt. Over the past five years, trainer Peter Miller is 15-46 (33%, $2.04 ROI) with runners dropping from maiden special weight competition and Already There chased a runaway most recently over the Hollywood cushion track (Spirit Rules returned to finish third in an entry-level allowance race with a 64 Beyer). A $7,500 short yearling that resold for $45,000 last April, Already There is by long-winded Quiet American out of stakes-placed sprinter Charming Gal. He fits at this level.
#5 VICTORIASUGRDADDY, out of stakes-placed Shanade, finished a well-beaten third in his only previous run on dirt and he disappointed in his most recent outing at this level over the cushion track (none of the five performers to return from that race managed to crack the board next-out). The rider switch to Rosario is interesting, but Victoriasugrdaddy doesn't seem to have much early speed and could need a pace meltdown in order to reel these in late.
#1 SKIP TONY removes blinkers after being pulled up over the cushion track on December 10. This will be his second start as a gelding and the seven-pound bug rider may send and hope for the best from the inside post. He must improve greatly off his first two appearances.
Here's how I'll play HG:
$50 Exacta - 8-6 (Midnight Con - War Politics)
$20 Exacta - 8-4 (Midnight Con - Juan's Twin)
$10 Exacta - 8-3 (Midnight Con - Take No Prisoners)
$10 Exacta - 8-2 (Midnight Con - At Last a Wildcat)
$10 Exacta - 8-10 (Midnight Con - Stormy Bob)
Best of luck to all
you might consider putting up the 2007 Southwest Stks pps where Teuflesberg got out early at a big price.
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I was just thinking that when you get the 35 to 40 shots in, it is not so much handicapping, but just luck. Have a lucky day all.
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HGSA
Congrats to all who had Skipping Tony. Predictably I had that one listed as a CAN'T WIN. Note to Form Bloggers when I break a race into three categories, Can't Win, Pretenders, and Contenders pay special attention to the Can't Win category. They usually air and pay a fortune. After Alan posted his win wager and reasoning since I respect his thoughts I went back to review this horse again. Per my caluclations he was a not projecting a clear lead and the rail draw was a negative. However, Tony did have enough speed, weight off, hood change and some gameness to boot while winning it. It was a perfect call by Alan and a few others. Again, great work! I humbly bow.
A few horses I played previously that may offer prices are cycling back today. Take cover, here they come along with some others worth noting:
GP
Race 6 Turf only -
XMas Sky #1 is bred top and bottom for major turf improvement. The first race was the classic public workout on dirt. The next start a first turf outing was a disaster. Horse was unruly and hit gate, then a steady and it was game/set/match. So I now have two line outs and major overlaid odds for today. Borel on the rail, pedigree, and a barn that can win although sporadically at this venue. I still don't know if this horse can break into a swift gallop but trainer Bradley keeps at MSW level. That tells me there is some talent. 40-1 today so give me one more piece. Will know the story at about 2:54:49 EST.
Will use XMas Sky top/bottom with Roman's heavy trouble horse (LIVE!!) and 8-10-11.
Late Pick 4 - GP
Race 8 1-3-9
Race 9 - 1-2-3-8
Race 10 - 7
Race 11 - 4-5-8-11-12
In race 9 you have some nice babies. My favorite debut sire Wildcat Heir has one. Connections assure price. Should be in front early but not sure for whole 6F. One of my favorite old Larry Jones over- achievers, Hello Liberty, gives us her first foal. HL could run a hole in the wind up to a mile but her career was cut short due to injuries. Hopefully she throws some runners. Have to use 1-2 also. McLaughlin can win anytime-anywhere so the rail and debut is a non-factor at 6-1.
In race 10 I will take a shot against one of the day's biggest favorites Lucky Chappy. Now Lucky and I have history. I bet him at KEE,then felt the need to triple up in the BC at 14-1. Now at low odds and no speed figure edge I can pass comfortably. Potential second choice Cozzetti has shipped across country couple times and is not that faster than the field either. I will try to beat their apparent class edge with Empire Builder #7. Simply a new animal on turf, he reeled off two straight at CRC. The last start was a very tough race. The top three are all graded types. Now on the outside maybe Empire Builder can run them down. His BSF are upward trending and 80-83 BSF probably is good enough. At 8-1 I will single. $30 to make $1,000 maks sense if right. If Chappy does win it, the Pick 4 probably does not pay with my other horses anyway.
FG
It is raining so not sure if turf is a go. In race 3 I loved first turf #8 Ho Ho Got U out of Cactus Ridge. This sire has 16% turf strike rate but is simply not backed appropriately at windows. I have made a mint on him especially short sprints. Unfortunately, he is a vet scratch. Watch for his next start on turf only. In Race 10 I may go to Mullins Beach if this stays on grass. Enough back class and will be better odds than Wild About Marie. The latter is on two race turf win streak. I was lucky to key her at my annual KEE trip. She did her part at 12-1 although that trip end with the infamous En Fuego debacle on Sunday. May be my FG turf exacta.
Good luck to all.
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Bernard Downes,
The old bitty doesn't need to bet. She has a license to steal !! (4% of the federal reserve profit) Read The Bankers. You can bet your tailess ape butt that she was working credit default swap scams !!! LOL.
Religious fundamentalist ? Not in the way you imply.(non-denominational) I'm not afraid to let the satanists have their say. I enjoy hearing them stutter & stammer when confronted. The exact opposite can be said of them however.
Creationist ? By all means.
Believer ? Without a doubt .
Worshiping that severly inbred old bitty LiZZy really cracks me up though. LOL.
Punching "festering" holes through stumble bums like Darwin or Christopher Hitchins isn't very hard. (did hitchens have festering boils ? LOL)
All those years at sea and you never found time to educate yourself ? Too much grog I guess ? You've never even read Utopia ! LOL. It was written by one of your beloved countrymen Bernard ! WTF were you doing lollygagging around in your bunk all those years on the US taxpayer subsidiZed dime ? Put down the bottle and pick up a book sometime Bernard.
I don't suppose you've read much Darwin because even a monkey brain would be able to recogniZe it as pure bull sheet and "outrageous guesswork". Ancient & Royal Academy endorsment or not !! LOL. Do you still believe in Piltdown Man Bernard ? LOL. Do you believe in the Chinese Chicken Dinosaur ? Do you know anything about sharks Bernard ? When was the last time you saw a Sea Gull evolve into an Eagle ? What about that missing link fossil fish that went extinct 3 million years ago when it crawled on land and evolved into ??? Oops somebody netted one a few years back in the Indian ocean and it was still exactly the same. Do you know anything about the aboriginal campfire sites with the cooked dinosaur eggs in them Bernard ?
Formblog probably isn't the place for this discussion ,buttZ... Annie accidently opened it up . LOL. No worries on my end Annie :-) Don't jump in halfway and start blaming me Jonah. LOL.
The day I let someone with Bernards admitted limited scope of knowledge challenge me on something I'm well versed in without teaching them a lesson is never. No thats not a joke Bernard. If you want to teach me some lessons on nautical knots I'm all ears , buttZ... on this subject I'm all aligator mouth. LOL.
regards
BSB aka The Chupacobra.
Capthca --- tetsro branches--- Are those the kind of branches that Bernards ancestors were swinging from captcha ? I think captcha is just joking around with you Bernard. He drinks like Carlton the doorman.
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Capt. Ron
With that misspent youth, it's a wonder I turned out the way I did!!
Capt. Ron, I'm pretty sure that guys like you & me have been
watched over by a higher power our whole lives. I told my brother
that the whole town raised me and those people at your bowling
alley probably fall into that group as well.
I remember the $100 windows at Aksarben had a wall in front of
them. You couldn't see who was betting at those windows until
they came out the other side.
I would get so ticked off with some guy in front of me at the $10
window who told the teller to just keep punching the tickets until
he told them to stop. I don't know how many times i got shut out
because some stronach wouldn't go to the $50 or $100 window
instead.
I remember one of my mentors at Aksarben (Harry W) told me
about one of his favorite angles one day. He said Sharpie, do you
know why I love this horse today? I said no because the horse
was beaten 5 lengths in it's last race. Harry said that's true, but
if you look closely you will see that he trailed the winner all the way
around. Know what else? Harry then says that the horse that beat
him last time ain't in this race today!
Exactas were $3 back then and Vale of Tears was the big horse at Aksarben.
Kathyrns Doll and Bold Accent were two of the best sprinters on the grounds.
It was the same Kathyrns Doll of Turf Paradise fame.
Alas, the good ole days are today and yesterday.
Yesterday, seems so far away....
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Curt V
My Bad! Bad Math ...I was calculating a $2 Ex payout , not $1 = $4820 !! Well done.
Hope you had it for real :)
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I posted on Facebook 1 hour before the last race and I played a $1 super hi 5 box, 1-3-6-8-10, cost me $120, finished 1-6-8-3-10 $17,238 so that was my play
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blackseabass and Ronald H,
Thank you! You know what they say about those blind squirrels finding those nuts!
Before I get sent to the Isolation Barn prepping for tomorrow's Ravens game, I wanted to link to a couple of Dabirsim's stakes wins. Just listen to one of the worst race calls ever! They forget to call Dabirsim's name, but watch his come from behind victory in the G-1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J1crlha5rCo
And check out his G-1 victory in the Prix Morny!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i5_-Nrj_mUg
Dabirsim is being targeted for the French 2000 guineas and hopefully later this year we will see him in the...Breeders Cup Mile!
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Alan,
I'm interested to see how well Howe Great runs too. Good luck!
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Alan,
Nice job & good luck in the tournament. When I said it wasn't close, it was because it was a 2 horse race as I watched it live. I had it boxed, so it didn't matter. Actually you took my bet 1st, as I was going to play the same $50 WP. So, you forced my hand to play the exacta. I couldn't believe somebody stole my thunder w/Skip Tony. It was like WOW..How the hell did he see the same thing that I saw ? I knew after coming up to the far turn he wasn't giving it up w/o a fight. Speed kills & when they get the right post, they are downright dangerous......My problem was deciding to bet $100 to Win or not...If he ran 2nd under that scenario & w/your bet, I would have 2nd guessed myself all week. So, I opted for some cover..That's horse racing....
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Keith –
Union Rags is, based on pedigree, quite unlikely to stay 10 furlongs. However, in sharp contrast to Hansen, his chances in the Derby cannot be discounted with high confidence.
On paper, a horse by Dixie Union out of a Gone West mare might be expected to find nine furlongs – let alone 10 – out of reach. However, UR has plenty of stamina in his tail-female line, and is a very good example of the importance of assessing physical type in order to refine one's expectations. He is a good-sized colt with scope to develop further, and is neither typical of his sire's nor his broodmare sire's offspring. Furthermore, there is nothing about either his running style or his past performances that suggests severe distance limitations. He is also a high-class horse, obviously, and that will enhance his chances of outrunning his pedigree.
As Laura and I have pointed out in the past, the relatives that are close up in the pedigree are the most influential. But in a case like this, in which the individual is not physically typical of either of his closest ancestors, it is reasonable to infer that he may – just may – benefit inordinately from some of his more distant relatives' genes (e.g. Terpsichorist, which won up to 12f., Nijinsky? High Hat?).
Having said all of that, while he certainly wouldn't be the first Derby winner to fall into this category, I think it most likely that he will prove best up to around nine furlongs, and that he will prove vulnerable to any true staying type of similar quality over Classic distances.
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Alan,
Great call in the HG. Keep pickin them like that and you''ll be posing with that million dollar check next week. Best of luck at the NHC.
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Annie
...you know Chalky so well :)
Thanks for keeping up with the MKB horses this weekend ...I've been a bit busy with HOA stuff running my life lately & hosting Poker + Dinner tonight. FUN!
Sooo, MKB workouts will go up tomorrow.
I know, I know , everyone here will be sooo disappointed ...LOL!
Alan
..and Chalky says "bring money...LOTS of money" !!
'buit es feret' ... ferrets ? weasels ? oh boy!
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Annie,
I meant no offence to anyone with strong religious beliefs, but this is NOT an apology. Evolution is science, not religion.
blackseabass,
I hope you feel better for getting all that off your chest.
We call it bluster - spouting a host of assertions / assumptions without any evidence whatsoever. You have absolutely no idea of the quantity or subject matter of my reading. And where did that bit about my "admitted limited scope of knowledge" come from? I HAVE admitted on here that my IT skills are rubbish (non-existent?) but, while self praise is no recommendation, I do have a reasonable knowledge of the old sciences (certainly enough to know that man didn't suddenly arrive on Earth).
I do agree with you that this is not the platform for a serious debate on the matter, but it is not me you are challenging, nor even Darwin (he simply did his best with the knowledge and research of his time). No, you are challenging an overwhelming number of scientists and academics from all around the World and, wait for it, some are even practising Christians.
I sincerely hope your analytical skills are better honed in looking at the weekend's racing. As someone once said, LOL.
Best Regards - Bernard Downes
P.S. You seem to have a bee in your bonnet about our "LIZZY". I am not about to leap too hard to her defence (and the only thing I worship is my faltering football team) but, in a corrupt World, she just about earns her corn. Keep those tourist dollars coming.
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Alan Poe, any winner is a little lucky. LSD , CurtV , MikeA and others here hit bombs often enough that it can't be all lucky IMO.
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Alan , it was truly a fine pick. Speaking of the Ravens ,I'm in line to make a big score if they beat the Pats & Frisco wins. My little brother put me in a pool & nobody has Frisco,so I just need 1 more win if the Giants lose. Good luck to us. :-) Good luck to you in Vegas . You can do it !!
_________________________________________________________________________________
Formblog is loaded with interesting characters. :-) The first time I ever drove I was 13 and my friends (they were 15) and I "borrowed" my sister Smarty Jones's car and hauled a$$ to SA in a pouring rainstorm. The tickets were of the colored variety in those days. I can't remember if we won or lost ,buttZ... we had a blast and returned home in time so that Smarty who worked graveyard shift in a market was none the wiser. :-)
Speaking of colored tickets. One of my friends father had the most costly wallpaper on earth in one of their bathrooms . It was made of losing tickets of all denominations. Totally psychadelic . :-)
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meathead01 & SR Vegas,
I would love to tell you a story about how I hit it for real....Butts:Nope.....
I told youse the story about my buddy from Philly, the Chickster...Our inside joke is:
When someone asks "How do you hit a 40-1 shot ?" Our canned answer is: "You play them..."
MH>aint looking today at the race charts..I'll be watching them & taking notes......
Captain Ron & Okie,
I must have been one of those Stronach's.....Lmao...I would always go to the $2 Window & tell the teller to keep punching 'til I tell you to stop...Tax purposes my man, tax purposes.....$10 cashed here, $10 cashed there, $40 cashed there....Ad nauseum.....& if I'm not mistaken the Exacta bet was novel, as it was in it's infancy..Furthermore, only a dunce would go to the $100 window & let the world know you were a high roller. Ever hear of getting shaken down ? Like Armed Robbery ? I knew guys who did it for a living, living off the big shots at the track...Better safe than sorry....or stupid.....
Edgar Allen Poe{ROFLMAO},
Thank Heaven for people like you......We need your kind at the track all day long...You keep betting the chalks...& up go the odds on the winners.......Just because you can't handicap, doesn't make you right....It seems I've been doing this quite a bit..It aint amateur night for me Sherlock..Say goodnight Gracie...ask meathead, or better yet, read his comments......Thanx meathead01.....
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KeithL ,
you are confusing animal husbandry with the Theory of evolution & or natural selection big fella. Thoroughbred racehorses did not evolve they were manufactured and it wasn't from horse like creatures with 3 toes. Stop by Santa YneZ sometime and take a look at those teeny tiny mini horses they have there. They're cute little tikes, pulling their mini covered wagons and such,buttZ... they don't have 3 toes either. I do imagine you as something of a 3 toed sloth though . :-) HaHaHa. Watch out you don't get festering boils on your forskin ! LOL.
CurtV, WTG again my man. I wasn't interested today ,buttZ ... I'm sure not going to pull a Keith L and say I wouda had it if I was ;-) Well done.
Same to you Alan. Well done.
MMMMM 16 dead cows . Delicious. Me and Curt prefer little tender baby veal though, right goatman ? :-)
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ALLEN POE
Couldn't agree less!!! Alan and Curt V. (and others?) handicapped that horse perfectly. Timing is key, the proper application of the proper angles at the proper time. If anyone tries to "hatpin" those $78 horses, then sure, they'll be broke in a hurry and feel very unlucky.
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SR Vegas, gerry v. and Dick W,
Thanks! My WP wager would have been a "double capper" in the NHC - may I be so lucky next week! However, Curt V (and congratulations Curt!) won HG with his $25 exacta.
I'm handicapping tomorrow's Beat the Host races and was reminded of an under-the-radar sire I keep forgetting to mention here = HAT TRICK. This multiple black type winner, including the G-1 Hong Kong Mile and the G-1 Mile Championship (Jpn), only has 22 listed starters (8 winners) so far. His star babe is undefeated 2yo EURO champ (5 for 5, including two G-1s) Dabirsim. Hat Trick is still IMO an amazing bargain, now standing at Gainesway for a listed fee of $15k. If Hat Trick has the opportunity to cover some more high-quality broodmares, I think the sky may be the limit.
The Hat Trick babe running tomorrow is #4 Howe Great in the Kitten's Joy stakes at Gulfstream Park. Watch his 1st-turf/1st-route race last month! Although I also like Cozzetti tomorrow, Howe Great is my Beat the Host pick.
Another Beat the Host pick tomorrow is a pedigree-play, this time at Santa Anita:
SA6 (msw 8.5f 3yo): #7 Unmarked Bills (ML:6/1) -> 3rdTS and 1st at 2-turns for this son of Posse who happens to be the HB to Regal Ransom and Devil May Care; both of his starts are much better than on paper; ignore Mandella's work times - the 3yo is primed for a big effort tomorrow. You won't however get the 6/1 morning line...
Good luck!
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"There's always hope his connections will realize Hanson's shortcomings and point him towards the top sprint/miler contests."
... I'm thinking that's not going to happen.
Keith,
IMO, Union Rags needs to show more professionalism this year to be taken seriously.
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BSB,
Yeah! That was a big one allright..Butts:remember what I said last week ? & you too ? The Exacta Tango ? Can't get one w/o the other Ed McMahon ??.......I actually had the three finishers..
1-2-3-------#1, #6, #8....Rofl.......I'm gonna ask Dan to give you my e-mail..So, if you are so inclined to accept it, I promise I won't self-destruct......LoL......I think Bernie is taking lessons from the C-reature.........LoL........Ape-isms all over the place..You're funny my man........
Like I said in my write up....I thought the #1 was sitting on a front running ExtravaganZZZZZA..
ButtZ:needed the Slewster to do the Tango.......
Dick W.,
Thanx my man..It must be the sobriety, right ? I knew I had Alan beat. That wasn't even close. I had the 1-6 boxed. What scared me was the guy who had a $1.00 Super w/the 1st 3 finishers..& I had to check who ran 4th..Had the 10 run 4th, he mighta had me.........
SR Vegas,
Thanx my Darling....My Darling Clementine......Heehee...Better get a better calculator though...
It's $4,820.00.......$192.80 for $1.00 Exacta X 25........
Jimi,
Well, there's the bomber I promised you.......LoL.....Tomorrow is out for me..We're expecting a major storm as I write..10-12 inches & all turning into Sleet....I only call the man when it's an emergency..So, no go, no betting for me.........Now, if the Weatherman does a booboo ? Eh ?
Keith L.,
I can't really argue w/you about the question of my sanity.....I know I'm nuts.......I've seen you've putting up some scores yourself........
TTY's all L.........
Tencentcielo,
That's $4,820.00...I'll help you out.....Here it is::::From the prior thread........
"January 20, 2012
11:26 AM
Posted by Curt V.
HG267 ?>I think..@SA,
Me believem' the #1, Skip Tony is sitting on a front running extravaganZa........just in case I'm using him w/the #6, Midnight Con, the drop down Slewster & the #8, War Politics, another dropper.......
$25 Exacta Box> #1 with/#6 & #8=$100.00.........
It's a pleasure doing business w/a reputable firm....Signore' Dan Illman........"
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Annie, no sweat kid. I'm not mad at you in any way. No Ape-ology necessary :-) :-)
SRVegas , no worries. :-)
__________________________________________________________________________________ Curt V , evidently you nailed a big one today ? Good for you my man. You're a champ not a chimp. :-) LOL.
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Dan
As you noted, it was Skip Tony's 2nd start as a gelding. Maybe a spot in the PP's could be found for each colt/horse to list the date a gelded notification (mandatory under current rules, I think; and if not, why not) is submitted. Knowledge is power--Francis Bacon
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Alan
In my post to Curt V, I mentioned that there were a few others who had the 1. Thanks to SR Vegas, I now remember your post. Great call ! Curt V's exacta might have got you though.
Dick W
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Curt V
I just caught your SR Budda post at the start of this thread (lol! , thanks that you still remember all my 'multi tasking' in Lauras chat room) I guess since I LOVE this blog so much , I really don't test the waters anywhere else.
...and get curious & interested when others make thoughts and comments . It's all good.
I'll continue to watch the Bernardinis...Martinis , Bikinis, ...sorry , it's a Vegas thing :)
and yes, I got your The Best ( Queen Z) to the Best ( Bernardini) thoughts you made.
I may be a Valley Girl ...Butts , I'm not Blon...oh never mind. There are enough jokes about Blondes out there. No offense Annie :)
Thanks Curt V
BTW, looks like you may be a player in HG this week. your $25 Ex Box 1-6 gets you $ 2410 !!
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C-urt V. >>>>WAYTOGO
Looks like you're ready to be pickin' and grinnin'. As for tomorrow, guess it is a lateral move, but at least she isn't the 21-1 Highweight. The Brazilian coming out of the same prep looks very interesting
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HG Results
Looks like Alan wins with a $50 w/p on #1.
This guy must be a freakin' genius! Read his reasons for the bet on the 1/19 blog.
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Alan ...
if I may repost your thoughts from the previous thread :
--------
"HG SA MAIDEN CLAIMER
If I was handicapping this race next week for the NHC, my focus would start with #1 Skip Tony.
This 2nd-start-since-gelded 3yo has flashed early speed in both of his prior race from the far outside and then faded in the first and folded in the last. On Friday, Skip Tony moves inside, loses the blinkers and gets bug-boy Eswan Flores. The son of Mizzen Mast should have the pedigree to handle two-turns. Could Flores get Skip Tony to the front on the rail and steal the race? At near his 20/1 ML odds, I'd take the chance he could...
WAGER:
$50WP #1
Good luck
-------------------------------------
Now, I do not know if this will win you HG of the week and the 'prize'.
$50 WP #1 ( = $ 2565 for your wager)
But it sure as hell tells me that you are looking & ready for the NHC next week !
Chalky is So Proud ! Squea
See you soon.
....
Skip Tony skipped along at 38-1 odds paid 78.00 /24.60/ 11.40
the rules for the NHC for a $2 Win / Place wager, 'caps' at = $42.00 win , $22.00 place.
but, that would be a great start!
WTG Sage :)
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Man, that apprentice is killing it the last few weeks. Glad he didn't get seriously injured in that nasy looking spill last week so that he could show up and throw two bombs into the late double. Never underestimate apprentice jockeys getting their weight breaks and taking horses to the lead when speed is holding...shoulda, coulda. The way he got that horse to fight back on the rail, though...pretty impressive. To those who had it...good call.
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Curt V
Nice job on the HG race ! I think just a few folks had the 1, but not many. Congrats to those who did. I have no idea who won.
Dick W
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"January 20, 2012
06:03 PM
Posted by Keith L.
Is anyone else experiencing lost posts? "
The curt answer is NO.........You may want to think about your content though......Lmao.......
Actually, if it happened like you said when Dan was updating the blog, they will magically appear at a later time, w/o any warning....If that doesn't happen, then may I suggest you refer to my 1st comment above......Heeheeheehee...............no warning there either........
Am I right Annie ? He might have mentioned Evolution, ala BSB & Bernardo.......Speaking of Bernardo ? Maybe your ancestors were'nt human..........Butts:mine ???????????? I'm sure damn hoping they're human..Hey, if some here don't like us going back 5 generations for horses, then WT Hell, I aint going back 5 + either........Lmao.....Don't be like the C-reature....It's a joke my man..
Do I always have to put out a disclaimer ? A 2nd time, it's a joke..........
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HG-267
$16 Tri Key 6/4-5-8/4-5-8
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I like Mitchell 2nd start maidens and I find it intriguing that Garcia hopped off an obvious contender to ride him. Even though he's marooned outside, I'll hope Martin findss something reasonable into the first turn. Behind him, it's kind of a crapshoot for me between the 3, 6, 7, and 8. I think it's entirely possible that the 3 gets a lead here, but I'm hoping that one of the more hopeless horses pushes him for pace the entire way because man is speed ever holding on the main at the great race place these days. Hunch the 6 in the second slot? Hmm.....
$25 Super 10/6/3/7,8
$25 Super 10/6/7,8/3
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Handi revised with the scratch of
the 9
.20 superfecta 4-5-6-7-8-10
$1 triple box 6-7-8-10
$2 exacta box 1-2
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HGSA: $2 superfecta 2 7 8 with 3 5 7 10 with 7 8 10 with 3 5 6 for $98.
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maidens, bla
$1hi-5
6,10/6,10/3/All/All
3,6/10/3,6/1,2,5,7/1,2,5,7
$8 super
10/6/5,7/3
bla
scoven espousals.
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Tinky,
Thanks for the comments on running style and the photo. I agree that Hanson appears to have more of a sprinter/miler build. Hanson's gray coat and the angle of the photo makes it hard to make a true determination of conformation. Either way, we're both in agreement about his Derby chances.
There's always hope his connections will realize Hanson's shortcomings and point him towards the top sprint/miler contests. If not, he might wind up as one of those horses rarely heard from again after the TC.
Laura
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HG 267
This seems like a two horse race between the 3 and 6. The 3 drops for Baffert and will be overbet. 6 has the best BSF's. They should run around 1-2 the whole way! Everyone else seems too slow!
The Play:
$2 Tri Part Wheel 3,6/ALL/3,6 = $28
$36 EX Box 3-6 = $72
Good luck to all!
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Ronald H.,
*From last blog post*
The precedent for Ms. Patton's request is Tina's Law, better known as the Roadside Memorial Act. Here's the full text: http://www.ilga.gov/legislation/publicacts/fulltext.asp?Name=095-0398
What this law allows is for any surviving relative to place a roadside memorial at the scene of any vehicular fatality caused by drugs/alcohol.
Ms. Patton submitted her request after a June accident in southwest suburban Hazel Crest where a tractor-trailer carrying cows flipped over, and sixteen cows were killed.
Now, the Illinois Department Of Transportation (IDOT), using the letter of the law, turned down Ms. Patton's application. More or less, IDOT, feels that because the cows don't have any living relatives that can represent them (as the law states is a necessary condition), that the application isn't valid. This feeds Ms. Patton's argument: since the cows are unable to speak we should give them a voice. IDOT would cite the letter of the law. A settlement Coming Soon to a court near you.
Ms. Patton has made rounds throughout the Midwest, protesting to anything involving animal abuse from Ringling Bros. Circus to McDonalds. She's been at Occupy Chicago riots in Grant Park, as well. She's well educated on paper (six years at University of Chicago) and well funded (UofC is not cheap, and Arlington Heights is one of Chicago's wealthier suburbs).
I've got nothing against her using her funding and resources for not-for-profit causes. My issue with PETA is more to the extreme, at times militant tone. Or for protesting without suggesting a better (or equally viable) solution.
Strangely, as someone who "resides" in Arlington Heights (the municipality that contains Arlington Park), she hasn't ever (to my knowledge) protested her village's racetrack. I have a gut feeling Ms. Patton and Mr. Duchossois are not BFFs.
I would be interested in taking an acid test on her reaction to race tracks. I know of PETA's usually-negative stance, but considering that Arlington Park is the largest employer in the Village of Arlington Heights, I think there's just enough contradictions to make her uncomfortable.
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HG
after submitting selection got both notices one saying my post was received and another saying reuse detected
so
the pick again
5 ex box 3,7,10
3 tri box 3,7,10
5 tri key 7/3,5,10
4 ex 7,10/3,5,10
......
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HG MD clmrs
......
think the 6 will be overbet, couldnt win in a three horse race now has to deal with baffert inside of him. also feel that one may not want the full mile here either. will go with the 7 first time for a tag. and the 10 with the 55% 2nd time start trainer stat
.................
5 ex box 3,7,10 ......30
3 tri box 3,7,10 .......18
5 tri key 7/ 3,5,10......30
4 ex 7,10/3,5,10 .....20
total 98
good luck
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The LeComte at the Fair Grounds should have been the Race of the Day because it is a Derby prep and people care about Derby preps. No one cares about the Palos Verdes.
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BSB,
Sorry about that. I guess evolution IS a category under the taboo religion topic, although I really didn't even think about it like that. See how easy it is to make a booboo? That's why we forgive and forget here on Formblog. :)
Annie
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Is anyone else experiencing lost posts?
I posted my selections for the 10th Race at GP sometime after 12N today on the prior thread, but got the dreaded "Captcha reuse attact" thing, even though I had submitted under the new captcha. Earlier, I had my post disappear in front of my eyes before I was done, and when I looked back I saw Dn had refreshed while I was typing.
Anyhow: a little redboarding here: I had selected the 2nd and 3rd finishers, #11 Didn't Take It and #1 Starship Song, respectively as my exacta play there, and had included the entered in #13
Jonathan C. in my boxed tri. Had the W/P/S wager on the Didn't He Take It, a 3 yr old colt by the good sprinter Put It Back out of an unraced daughter of Bahri (think Riverman and Nijinski II mare in the 2nd generation as turf credentials here). This Londgren homebred had made a nice run finishing 4th just over 1 length behind the winner in a mile dirt MdnClmr $25K on 12/31 at GP, was coming off a near bullet work on the deep Caldar track 1/12 in :49.40, and was making the jump up one class with the bug boy Calderon up in this 1&1/16th turf event at $35K for Maiden 3 yr olds.
I played against the Mott horses here, and got beat by one of them...but the nearly $20 Place and the #over $10 Show return made up for it. Haven't seen the chart yet, so I don't know where 20-1 ML Jonathan C. finished, but he was by English Channel and worth the inclusion in the tri therefore.
Laura and Tinky:
Nice to see you two in agreement re: Hansen's probable inability to get 10f. If either the KY Derby or the Preakness comes up as a sloppy track (always a good probability), if he gets loose on the lead, his wet track pedigree does lend itself to a case of being able to go the distance of ground over the others I would think. But I wouldn't buy a Futures Pool ticket on that factor....not at 12-1.
I see Watchmaker has both Union Rags and Hansen as his two leading contenders (at this point) for the KY Derby...kind of a conventional approach seeing they ran one-two in the BC Juvie.
What say you two as to the likelihood of Union Rags getting the distance?
Keith L.
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HG REVISION:
Well, since my $50 exacta box has been trumped by Hialeah and Dale Tillotson, I will have to go all out with a Super.
$2.40 Super: 3,6/3,6/2,5,7,8,10/2,5,7,8,10 = $100
Annie
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HG267
tom bets
$4 superfecta box 3, 6, 8, 10
$2 super HI-five straight 6, 8, 10, 3, 5
$2 super HI-five straight 3, 6, 8, 10, 5
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HG267
$20 exacta box 6/8=$40
$20 exacta box 6/10=$40
$5 trifecta 10/8/3,6=$10
$5 trifecta 8/10/3,6 =$10
#6 Midnight Con- ran a game 2nd at this level last month. Tries dirt for the first time but has worked solidly at SA for the return. #8 War Politics-blinks on, gets major jock switch and back in for a tag; all systems go! #10-Garcia stays aboard, but draws the outside. Trainer has good numbers with maiden claimers and 2nd time starters, #3- Take No Prisoners-gets class drop, must handle dirt and two turns for the first time. Encouraging work 1/15.
Good Luck!!
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HGSA-$30 exacta 5/ 3-8-10--- $10 to win #8 good luck to all
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HG267
Cindy bets
$8 win 6
$10 exacta box 6,8
$1 superfecta box 3, 4, 6, 10
$1 superfecta box 2, 6, 8, 10
$1 superfecta box 3, 5, 6, 8
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SR Vega Buddha,
I didn't get back to you earlier about BSB & my cryptic exchange because #1..I knew you'd figure it out subsequently w/all the appendages you utilize...Heehee & #2.. I figgered I'd let the Fisherman respond 1st, as he was about to understand that I knew, he wasn't getting his post in, on Hovdey's blog..We've been doing this for years over there. Jay is a funny character. He knows I know BSB & vice/versa..I already had tried to respond to BSB & Jay Round filed it..So, there was no way he was gonna let BSB fire away again at those other bloggers..Jay practices Nepotism over there. If you say something C-ontrarian he only allows it ONE time..No follow ups allowed. Of cHorse if it's something he's partonizing, the sky is the limit.....He's a real pick & chooser..You know the kind ? It's my ball & I'm going home if..........Blah, blah, blah.........At least Jay & Steve usually e-mail you & tell you what's up & let you explain & then they usually relent, albeit they edit it to smitherines......Now, that Frankenstein look alike, he's a piece of work..He writes a column about indefensible votes in the Awards, & he's the worst offender.....I told him about his Animal Kingdom pick & others & if he looks in the mirror, the mirror would be ROFL-it's-AO........Of course I already know I aint getting on anyway, so I just decided that I would break his ballini's at every chance I get. I really don't give a flying F about that creep......He's got a face for radio anyway..Lmao.......TTYL......
Did you find that post on Bernardini/Z ? I'll paraphrase my cogent point...."If Zenyatta is the best, then Moss will want the best......".. Seattle Slew is the best, & since he's been dead since 2002, Bernardini is the closest thing to the Slewster there is........>>Book it Danno......."
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#3 Prisoners of War will probably run away and hide from this group, but I don't like Baffert in claimers. Let's try $10.00 trifectas 3-6-8 , 3-8-6 , 8-6-3, $20.00 trifectas 6-8-3 , 6-8-5 , and a $30.00 trifecta 6-8-7 .
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HG Likely contenders seem to be:
Take No Prisoners(3): Have to consider anything Baffert runs, but troubling that MG not here.
Midnight Con(6): Nice figs in routes, bullet work. Coming off layoff, but trainer has some success with that.
War Politics(8): Adds blinks, decent fig at distance, nice work, dropping.
Stormy Bob(10): Didn't look like much in debut, but trainer does way better with them in their second start and MG lands here.
Will be playing a superfecta(and a trifecta) and will be adding some of the longer shots to the bottom of that.
50 cent superfecta: 8,10/3,5,6,7,8,10/3,5,6,7,8,10/3,5,6,7,8,10=$60
$20 tri: 8/3,10/3,10
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HG (revised)
with the late scratch of #9
$1.10 superfecta's 6,8 / 6,8 / all / all
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hg SA
$10 tri 3 / 8 / 4, 5, 6, 10
$10 tri 3 / 10 / 4, 5, 6, 8
$10 tri 3 / 8 / 10
$10 tri 3 / 10 / 8
Thank you
Peter Monte
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HG 267
$20 Tri 6 / 5,10 / 5,10
$20 Tri 5,10 / 6 / 5,10
$10 Ex Box 5-10
Midnight Con (6) has been facing better and may end up on the lead or will certainly be tracking at worst. Good start to meet for Mullins. Hess has good numbers in this type situation, I expect his Victoriasugrdaddy (5) to improve. Have to assume Garcia had his choice of Stormy Bob (10) and Take No Prisoners (3) and he ends up on the former and Mitchell going gangbusters 2nd time out, though it's a small sample. As for Take No Prisoners, would like to see him run on turf with that breeding.
Good luck to all.
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Don't bother looking at my Pick 5 ticket. I went out in the 2nd race. I threw SPICY BEAU out, so of course he won. :(
Not only that, but I see Dale Tillotson trumped my 3/6 exacta in the HG, and since Hialeah had already trumped my 6/3 exacta, I am now stuck with a worthless ticket.
Only one thing to do, I have to find a big super wager. :)
Annie
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HG 267
I heard somewhere that the highest last race Beyer is sometimes relevent:) I am, therefore, going with the #6 Midnight Con on top.
$60 Tri 6-3-10
$40 Tri 6-10-3
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HGSA Revise
With the scratch of the 9 I'll just play the 6 and 10 and add the 8.
$45 Ex Box 6/10
$5 Tri 6,10/6,10/8
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HGSA Revise
With the scratch of the 9 I'll just play the 6 and 10 and add the 8.
$45 Ex Box 6/10
$5 Tri 6,10/6,10/8
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Midnite Con isn't the 8. I think you have the names and numbers mixed up.
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OK, Baffert/Garcia came through for me in the first. Good thing, because I singled BLUESKIESANDRAINBOWS.
The rest of my ticket:
Race 2: Clearlyalucky (something), McCarroll and Sidepocket Kid
Race 3: Five Silver Stars, Picture (something), Ayomlove, Sleep Tight and All the Love
Race 4: Corner Office
Race 5: Clear to Canada, High Success, Brady Blue Eyes, Spectacular Slew and Thrice the Vice
1x3x5x1x5 = $37.50
Annie
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Since the 8, 3 and 6 look like they'll be there, I'll take a shot
with a bomber or 2 finishing 3rd and 4th.
HG
8/3,6 $1 exactas = $2
8/3,6/All triples, $1, = $14
8/3,6/All/All SF's, $1 = $84
Thanks as usual
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handi 267 Picks'
.20 superfecta box 5-6-7-8-9-10 =$72
$1.00 triple box 6-8-9-10 = $24
$2.00 exacta box 1-2
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Dan,
Are your program numbers wrong or are mine? I think #8 is War Politics and #6 is Midnight Con.
Here is the Bloodhorse link for whoever was interested. Sorry I forgot to note who asked.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/66960/case-made-for-high-volume-betting-services
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$100 straight exacta....8/10
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After the scratch announced by our fearless leader, please adjust my bets as follows:
$1 SPR
1/5,6,7,8/5,6,7,8/2,7,8,10 $24
5,6,7,8/1/5,6,7,8/2,7,8,10 $24
5,6,7,8/5,6,7,8/1/2,7,8,10 $24
2,7,8,10/5,6,7,8/5,6,7,8/1 $24
$4 Win on #1
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Best Bets
MUTINY was claimed from seventh straight loss, and returned eight weeks later to beat a dozen rivals in best effort since last July; back to dirt and back with Rosie Napravnik after turf try on short rest. RUFFINO probably won't match 92 Beyer earned last time on this track last fall, but grizzled old pro got back in win column recently, when claimed by savvy owner-trainer; second in '09 Empire Classic over sloppy going here. HILL CROSSING has been freshened since Mar. 18 score second off the claim that earned best figure since daylight win here last summer; needs fast footing.
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