09/28/2011 5:06PM

HandiGambling 252 - Remington Park turf


Wednesday's HandiGambling 252 exercise is the fourth race at Remington Park, an entry-level allowance race for 3-year-olds at 7 1/2 furlongs on turf.

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."

Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.

Please post your plays and analysis to the blog.

Please separate the play from the analysis and label the play "HG" with the program numbers instead of the names of the horses.

Past performances are available at the previous blog post.

In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference.

One entry per person please.

I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.

I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.


As of this writing, the turf course is listed as FIRM.

Let's scratch #1A - POWERSCOUT


I found this race extremely difficult and came up with a ridiculous longshot in the faint hope of taking down the entire HG prize.

#10 JOE'S BULL is a maiden after 11 starts and will face winners after registering Beyers of 20, 24 and 21 against Oklahoma-bred maiden claimers on the dirt. 

For the vast majority of handicappers, Joe's Bull is an automatic toss but I'm going to give him a second look because of his pedigree and price.  His dam, Sheikh Fortysix, finished third in the Twin Lights Stakes at 1 1/16 miles on turf at Monmouth Park with an 86 Beyer Speed Figure and has foaled two turf winners from five grassy runners. The second dam is a half-sister to Buckhar, the winner of the Grade 1 DC International on turf. 

Joe's Bull is a high-risk, high-reward play and is more likely to finish last than first.  Still, his pedigree intrigues me in a race featuring question mark after question mark.

#2 RED COYOTE is a half-brother to multiple stakes-winner Gold Coyote (12-26, 454K, 1-1 on turf) and multiple stakes-winner Coyote Legend (10-19, 407K, 3-5 on turf) and looms the main speed in his second start following a February layoff.  His sire, Early Flyer, was unraced on grass and is 2-47 (4%) with first-time turf runners.  Red Coyote goes out for a powerful barn, should be tighter for this assignment and could be very dangerous if allowed to waltz on the lead.  The additional distance is a slight concern.

#3 RATTLESNAKE HOLLER is by a sire that is 2-31 (6%) with first-time turf runners.  The dam was a multiple stakes-winner (unraced on turf) and has foaled a turf runner that did not win on the surface.  Like Red Coyote, Rattlesnake Holler is eligible to improve in his second start of the form cycle.  The winner of the Rainbow Stakes for Arkansas-breds as a maiden, Rattlesnake Holler finished ahead of Red Coyote last time out on dirt.

#4 ALL READY sold for only $40,000 as a yearling despite being by More Than Ready out of Grade 3-placed runner Alchemist (the dam of multiple stakes-placed Burj Dubai and Grade 1-placed juvenile sprinter And Why Note).  Twice-claimed in his career, All Ready was the beaten favorite last time out in an 'n3L' claimer on dirt.  These are very strong connections (Moss/Asmussen) and All Ready may offer a bit of value.

#5 KENSETH didn't run badly in his lone turf try two back at this distance (rallying second with 67 Beyer Speed Figure) and the sixth-place finisher returned to win a $12,500 'n2L' claimer on grass at Evangeline with a 61 Beyer.  A full brother to stakes-winning sprinter Dos and Don'ts (4-9, 110K, unraced on turf), Kenseth may get some pace to attack and looms a contender for barn that is winning with 22% of their runners this year.

#6 EIGHTY MILLION finished ahead of several of today's runners when third at this level last time out.  In that race, the winner, Key Largo, stole out to an easy lead through solid fractions and proved impossible to catch.  Eighty Million tried to rally into that slow pace, but was late to change leads and couldn't get there.  He's a logical contender for high-percentage connections, but may not offer a great amount of value.

#7 ONE HELLUVA RIDE upset $12,500 maiden claimers at Lone Star on July 2, but that race was at five furlongs and he hasn't gained ground from the stretch call to the wire in his two subsequent races against winners.  He let Key Largo shake loose in the aforementioned September 10 race and it will be interesting to see if his rider is more aggressive this time around, even with Red Coyote in the field.  The turnback in distance should work to his favor, but he may need a bit weaker.

#8 TEXAS CITIZEN went gate-to-wire last time out against $12,500 'n2L' claimers at Evangeline Downs, but there are other speeds to his inside here and he may have to sit off the pace.  Note that both of his career victories came when on the front and he may not be at his best when he allows others to set the tempo.  The sixth-place finisher from the most recent run returned to take a $12,500 'n2L' race for Louisiana-breds at Evangeline with a 53 Beyer. 

#1 SHARP WAGER is in very good form right now with two wins and three seconds from his last five races.  All of those starts came on dirt, however, and he has a record of 3-0-1-0 on the grass.  Sharp Wager looked good last time out when defeating next-out winner Lee's South (won $10,000 'n3L' claimer on dirt with 66 Beyer), but he took advantage of a hot pace that day.  It's possible he's slightly better on the main track. 

#9 CHARLIE'S PHANTASY hasn't done anything wrong in his short career.  A rallying second in his debut on dirt at Lone Star in June, Charlie's Phantasy didn't disappoint as the betting favorite in his turf debut at Remington on September 8.  It's never easy for a maiden graduate to immediately take down winners, but Charlie's Phantasy seems to have some ability and upside potential.  He can't be counted out.

#11 LANDON PAUL, the uncoupled stablemate of Charlie's Phantasy, is a one-run closer at the mercy of race and pace luck.  Stakes-placed on turf at two, Landon Paul didn't break well in his Remington debut on September 10 and was one of the horses that were forced to rally into Key Largo's slow pace.  He was moving well at the end of that race and may get faster fractions to attack this time around.  It looks as if this horse is slowly rounding back into form and should factor late.

#12 KENTUCKY RATTLER parlayed a perfect ground-saving, pace-tracking trip into a win at Golden Gate in April and he earned a solid 74 Beyer on dirt last time out.  He wheels back in two weeks, but is saddled with a difficult outside post position.  I think Kentucky Riddler will appreciate getting back to grass and isn't the worst stab at a big price.

Bombs away:

$50 Win/Place - #10 JOE'S BULL

Best of luck to all.

MSD More than 1 year ago
Super Stakes weekend this weekend both at Santa Anita and Belmont! I can't wait for the stakes races at Keenland next weekend...but first, this weekend. I am lucky enough to have a free day tomorrow from school and my sport (baseball)...which means time to go up to Santa Anita for the day! My selections for Belmont firstly (just stakes races): Flower Bowl Invitational: I'm really trying to beat Stacelita this race and the only horse I can see doing it is Aruna. Nice ran last time, earned a nice buyer. She always runs well. I'd be willing to put a little money on her. Otherwise it's Stacelita's to loose.... Turf Classic Invitational: No American horse can beat Cape Blonco...and all the other runners he is running against here are American...do I need to say any more? Vosburgh: Love Euroears. He's turning out to be quite the sprinter. The Factor could probably beat him...but he's not in this race. Wire to wire winner! Baffert's looking good for the Breeders Cup Sprint this year! Kelso: Uncle Mo..willing to say he needed a race and see him win this race easy. Not much competition here in my opinion. I'm dissapointed how this race turned out. Beldam Invitational: Royal Delta looked like a monster last race. Havre De Grace is a monster too but if Royal Delta runs like she did last time she's going to give Havre De Grace a scare...and scare which could send her shivering back to her barn without a photo in the winners circle. I am dissapointed how this race turned out as well..... it's a two horse race.. Jockey Club Gold Cup: I believe Flat Out is overrated...I believe Stay Thirsty is the winner. Stay Thirsty will not be my pick for the Breeders Cup Classic, but he ran huge races last time at Saratoga and I think Flat out will have to settle for second....again! Santa Anita (full card): 1st race: Crapshoot..not the best quality of horses. I smell inconsistancy....I won't bother really but if a person held a gun up to my head and said "pick a horse to win or i'll shoot," i'd pick Kvetch because I love Peter Miller maiden claimers and she ran a nice little race at Del Mar her first start. With a little bit of improvement she could be the winner. 2nd race: I hate first time starters going two turns but Battle Force is very intriguing...giants causeway colt, bred to run long on the grass and mike smith rides for john sherrifs, which means they think this horse can run. None of these horses that have run are really anything to write home about so...we could have a nice little win here at hopefully a price! 3rd race: Loved Endless Cruise's last race...HOWEVER, speed was not holding up AT ALL today. With that, I am going to take a shot at Warren's Clyde, a horse who broke his maiden at fairplex in maiden company. He is consistant finishing second his first race at Del Mar. Could pull off a mild upset here at morning line odds of 10-1. 4th Race: None of these horses like to win but Visual Intensity has been running against much better than all of these...this could finally be his right spot today. 5th Race Norfolk Stakes: Still not sold on Drill...gonna try for Creative Cause again. I thought the futurity was a mess and, even though creative cause probably wasn't gonna win anyway, he was right there. He's bred for two turns and i think this will benefit him. I think Drill had his measure at 7 furlongs. The question is: will he like the dirt? I've heard Drill will like it just fine and Baffert is really excited about this guy...but I am still going to play Creative Cause here for the win. 6th Race Ladies Secret: If Blind Luck runs like her connections say she is working out she should win. I am picking her as my top selection but do not count Zazu out. Word on the backside is that Gomez said he was on the best horse in the Clement Hirsch and he told Sadler he screwed up the ride and she should have won....and if she sits a length or two in front of Blind Luck and gets the first jump on her, who knows? Ask the Moon looks like she's getting good and she may be the only speed. 1-7-3. 7th Race Goodwood Stakes: Coil is my pick. Baffert says he screwed up running him in the Travers and if Baffert thinks he is back to his normal self, which I hear he thinks, I am willing to believe it. Has been working out good and if he runs like he did in the Haskell he has a big big chance. I cant help but root for Awesome Gem to be in the mix at the finish..he's such a gutsy horse who tries hard all the time. There is no speed in this race...GAME ON DUDE? If they run 48 and change for the first half and they don't pick up the tempo he could be your winner too...but Coil is my pick. 8th race: Loved Quantity's last race two races back and got no pace to run at last time out.....with lots of horses and what I think will be a good pace to run at, Quantity has a chance to pass them all at the wire. 9th Race: Longshot play: Patriotic Lion. Hoping he needed a race his first race and I love Lion Heart colts. He should be in a good stalking position. 10th Race Yellow Ribbon: Cozi Rosie is 4-1 again...was 4-1 last time. I think she ran huge last race and those blinkers really helped her. She is always consistant and I don't think she will be as far off as people realize if the pace isn't as quick as usual. Dubawi Heights ran a huge race last time also and is consistant as well (it will be intersting to see how the horse who beat her, Stacelita, runs at Belmont) but I think she is vulnerable and could be beaten. I expect Malibu Pier to be right there at the wire as well: she's a nice filly. 11th Race: Sweet Pleasure is the best of the worst here. Enough said. Bonus Picks: Hoosier Park Indiana Derby: WILBURN for the mild upset. I think Shackleford is a tired horse and I think Caleb's Posse is a seven furlong specialist. Philidelphia Park Catillion: It's Tricky ran hard in defeat last time, and there is no Royal Delta in here. I pick her to win over Halo Dolly, who has won 5 in a row, most recently a state bred stakes at Del Mar. Plum Pretty is overrated in my opinion. I very much enjoy reading everybody's picks and opinions on things. We should all be looking forward to hopefully a VERY GOOD day of racing tomorrow. GOOD LUCK TO ALL TOMORROW!
Laura More than 1 year ago
Happy Birthday Whackymacky! Chat WAS interesting tonight. For those of you who were unable to join, I'll have the chat transcript posted on the CHAT PAGE sometime tomorrow around mid-morning. The chat room will be OPEN tomorrow afternoon starting around 2:30 PM EST if you're hanging around at home waching the races and want to discuss the action live. TY everyone who joined chat to make it another successful night! GL tomorrow everyone! Laura
PGM More than 1 year ago
Readers, Some Kwik Picks. Cotillion: LOVE AND PRIDE. Counter-intuitive handicapping seems to work at Parx. Taking LOVE AND PRIDE to upset the favorites. Don't think It's Tricky wants 9F and think Plum Pretty is over the top. IN Derby: DECISIVE MOMENT. Don’t care for Caleb’s Posse (think he’s best at one turn) or for Shackelford (think he may be over the top and why are they doing the Chicken Dance?). I’ll call on my crazy half Dr. Dangerously, and try some DECISIVE MOMENT, who looks better if you toss his two spring races at Churchill and Charles Town. Flower Bowl: STACELITA, DYNASLEW, DELUXE DrD: EMERALD BEECH STACELITA won the Beverly D. on yielding (closer to soft IMO) turf in the paddock last time. She meets a field that is certainly not stronger than last time. Some DYNASLEW on the front end and well-bred DELUXE on the under side to make it worthwhile, since Stacelita will be odds-on. The Dangerous longshot is EMERALD BEECH. Hirsch Turf Classic: CAPE BLANCO, WINCHESTER, GRASSY Another turf race where I won’t be clever. CAPE BLANCO over WINCHESTER, as they defeated similar fields but Cape did it on wet ground. GRASSY clunks up for third. Vosburgh: EUROEARS DrD: FORCE FREEZE If EUROEARS runs back to his works, then he’ll run them off their hooves. I do like what FORCE FREEZE did on Haskell undercard day and he has a puncher’s chance. Kelso: UNCLE MO. He is controlling speed in a short field against questionable foes. This race is brought to you by the letter “Z”. Beldame: HAVRE DE GRACE, ROYAL DELTA. Think it’s a two horse race between the two with an edge to the former. Jockey Club Gold Cup: FLAT OUT, STAY THIRSTY. FLAT OUT returns to Belmont and the scene of his best work. STAY THIRSTY moves up in the mud but I don’t think he gets past the former.
SR Vegas More than 1 year ago
Kelly Belles Yea!!! Score one for the PGH home team! WTG ! Sloppy Saturday? ugggg! Good luck to all. Mike A and Ned Daly, stay dry . MSD- nice to see you again. Have fun at Santa Anita. Uncle Steve- Nice win on the Pick 5 ....have you discovered some 'gold' in them hills? Whackymacky & mpm101 Happy Birthdays to you both . Enjoy ! Whacky, will Chantal be popping out of a cake for you? General stuff ....I'm heading south to Long Beach today for an "Octoberfest" at my Sis in laws- family and friends & kids (last year 140 showed up) Always a good time. Van Savant, you would be drooling over what they grill up and serve, LOL. BUT, I will probably be crying in my large Stein of beer later tonight when Stanford runs up the 'score' up on my Bruins :( Heading back to LV later this weekend. Looking forward to seeing the RAH and Chalky again :) 'nivedec because'
chris More than 1 year ago
Any thoughts on good mud pedigree plays at Belmont today? I was looking at Race #1 ?4-Fr. Peter's Missal ?9-The Tapinator Haven't seen scratch list yet but this one's off turf. I'm kinda new to this. Appreciate your thoughts and ideas. Thanks...Chris
blackseabass More than 1 year ago
Happy Birthday Whacky. Good luck .
blackseabass More than 1 year ago
Hey now girls, you know they don't call me garter snake right ? SSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS Half ?? More like a dang Medusa !!! LOL. Van Savant , you casually mention you were a gigilo and blue thongs come out of the woodwork pinning your shortcoming on me. LOL. Sorry ladies I'm not for hire . I'm all about the love. Curt V, I know of those guys but I don't know them. The Brewers have a few guys that I coached against or scouted.
Laura More than 1 year ago
For those who would like to review last night's chat commentary, it's now available at the IMT website: http://www.ironmaidensthoroughbreds.com/index.html The chat room will be OPEN from 2:30 PM EST onward for those who would like to drop in and comment on the races live. We'll do some physical handicapping, cheer on the winning tickets and listen to (a little ) whine about "damn, I should have boxed that." comments. If you're posting on the blog, why not drop by the chat room for a race or two and share your comments? Laura
blackstone More than 1 year ago
Some Alternative Races What an exciting afternoon of racing this will be (weather permitting). Although I will be unable to see anything live, later this evening I will watch all the big ones from coast to coast with great interest. Back in the day, today’s events would result in my easily (but recklessly) playing twenty-five to thirty races for the cards in one afternoon (my record was 38 races). I would then wonder how I could have lost so much, especially since I had so much confidence at the beginning of the day. It took me years-lots of years-to realize that the problem was me and my complete lack of discipline. So I had to change, and I did. Those days are long gone, and in fact, an almost complete reversal now takes place every weekend. I am ignoring everything east and south of Albany, California, and instead will play either three or four races at GGF only. For anyone interested in a few “alternative” races, here are a couple of plays from GGF: 1st Race-#1-Lady of Fifty-Krigger’s first mount after serving six days and I think he’ll come out like a shot. Probably on the best horse as well. I really wanted to play Oblivion at 4-1 as I won on him last time and he seemed to have a lot left in the tank. I don’t like having only one workout, though, in five weeks. I’ll let him beat me. 3rd-#8-Big Cozz-Seven straight strong races for Josephson, the horse seems to always be there at the end. I’ve said before that Josephson is underrated, but now he’s 7-16 and the whole world is aware of him. The horse might well win for fun. 4th-#2 Victory Trail-Another Josephson horse. This one is making his second start off a seven month layoff, and should improve from his last race, where he had trouble. This is a terrific betting race as all seven horses have a very fair shot at winning: a couple of them at juicy odds. I am looking for someone to break 1:11, and I think Trail has the best chance of doing that. 8th-#10-Grantmartyamiracle-Taking a shot with a William Morey, Jr. debut horse. Going against type by not playing the Sherman debut horse (London Square), or either of the two Hollendorfers. I’ve just had such great success with Morey, Jr lately that I just have to stay with him. It doesn’t hurt that Gryder is riding, nor does it hurt that the biggest single mutual of my life was on a Morey, Jr.debut horse (ten to twelve years ago, though). WP on the 1st race (just five horses), and ATB’s on all the others. Best of luck to all of you in the big ones back east and down south.
Annie More than 1 year ago
Had a great time at the Chat last night! Typed as much as I could even with a sore right shoulder and arm. Where's Dr. Alan when I need him? Mike A, Populist Politics scratched. Annie
Curt V. More than 1 year ago
James Mc, I think maybe you should publish the "JMc Report"...Forget the horse, bet the Jock...We can call them "McJ Figs......">>I never gave it a thought about the JB{Jimmy Boeheimer} line..Good one.. It came as no surprise to Yours truly, that Big Drama got a fever..He's still heated up over the Volcanic Ash he received from the lambastation from the one & only Female Rocketship, Rachel Alexandra......How you like my rear end buddy....? Not much thank you...I couldn't see it from that far back......... I think the placement of Birdrun in the JCGC changes the race scenario substantially...Actually it's the Seattle Slew Invitational, being Birdrun is the only Non-Slewster in the darn race...So, I guess that every betting interest is a Slewster........Until yesterday I didn't know Drosselmeyer was out of Slew O' Gold.........Duh ? 2 Time Champion Eclipse Award winner...... I agree about AU Miner...I think I'm gonna use him w/the two chalks 1-2 Key...pace scenario should help his style. I think the value from Stay Thirsty is about done..I've already milked that to the max............so it'll be a light one..Of course if they decide not to bet him, "Sugar Pie, honey bunch......I'll be there..........">>Is 3 times a charm ? Stay Thirsty & an all..I don't know......... In harness terms>..."Dare dey goe-oooo.........">"Dare off"> & so am I........as Frank Sinatra says, New York, New York...........