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Today's HandiGambling 233 exercise is the ninth race at Arlington Park, a statebred maiden special weight for three-year-olds and upward at six furlongs on the polytrack.
Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan." Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified. Please post your plays and analysis to the blog. Past performances are available at the previous blog post. In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per person please. I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
The first few weeks at Arlington are usually very interesting as we find out if the horses that ran well on dirt at Hawthorne can successfully transfer that form to the all-weather.
Let's scratch #13 BOXEO and #14 TOP NOTCH BUDDY.
#10 COUGAR'S SHADOW ran faster than par for this class level (par is 68) when an even third at Hawthorne last month and tuned up for this with a bullet five furlongs over the polytrack eight days ago.
He was bet hard in his career debut back in March, but didn't run very well against a solid field (the second- and third-place finishers both came back to win).
Last time, he prompted a quick pace and dug in gamely for third money.
He draws a good attack post position outside of the other speeds and should be prominent when the field swings into the stretch.
If you believe in "synthetic" breeding, a half-sister, One Perfect Day, won over the Tapeta at Presque Isle Downs while another half-sister, Princess Ally Rose, won twice over the Arlington polytrack last season.
Over the past five years, trainer Christine Janks is 3-7 (42%, $4.00 ROI) at Arlington with older statebred maiden sprinters going dirt to synthetic following a 31-60 day layoff.
Another sign of intent may be the rider switch to Junior Alvarado. Over the past two years, the Janks-Alvarado trainer-jockey combination is 4-8 (50%) with an $8.52 ROI.
#4 OFFICER NINO is a half-brother to Jaguar City, the winner of the Isaac Murphy Handicap going six furlongs over the old dirt course at Arlington back in 2005.
The Officer homebred showed good speed when bet down to 5-1 for his career debut and could be the main pacesetter in his first start on synthetics.
#2 PANAMA HAT has yet to hit the board from seven lifetime starts, but he put up consistent figures at Hawthorne over the winter and may improve with the switch to polytrack. He came with a late run for fourth when finishing only a half-length behind Officer Nino on April 27 and could get some pace to attack here.
#6 GRUDGE MATCH has some pedigree appeal as a half-brother to Striking Hight, a stakes-placed turf performer that won sprinting over the Arlington polytrack in 2009. His dam, Highfalutin, was multiple Grade 3-placed going long, but did win three sprint races.
The gelding was bet to favoritism in his career debut and showed good speed before faltering to second in the stretch at Hawthorne. He wouldn't be a surprise from close to the pace for high-profile connections.
#1 ANY GIVEN TIME was virtually ignored at the windows for his career debut and didn't do much running over the sloppy track. He'll have to really hustle breaking from the inside post.
#8 WILD COMMAND didn't fare very well over sloppy going in his debut after breaking poorly from the inside post. It's probably too early to give up on him completely, but he's hard to confidently endorse.
#11 IN ALL DIRECTIONS has not finished ahead of another runner since February 27, 2010, and has simply been dull since returning from a long, long layoff.
#3 SUNSHINE EXPRESS is by Explicit, a Grade 2-winning sprinter that is 13-100 (13%) with debut runners. The dam went 8-35 for $115,175 in earnings (2-7 in sprints) and has foaled a winner from three prior starters. Trainer James DeVito is 7-15 (47%, $6.01 ROI) over the past year with debut runners and is 13-39 (33%, $6.12 ROI) over the past five years with debut runners at Arlington.
He doesn't have to be the next Secretariat to win this so check the tote for early action to see if he's live.
#12 NAGYS PIGGY BANK is a son of Cherokee Rap, a stakes-placed earner of $186,240 that is 0-11 with debut runners. The dam was multiple stakes-placed (4-19, $133,286, 3-14 in sprints) and has foaled three winners from three previous runners. Trainer Scott Becker is 0-15 over the past five years with debut runners at Arlington.
#5 HEY NEIGHBOR has some bloodlines as his sire was a multiple Grade 2 sprint winner that is 23-344 (7%) with debut runners. The dam was a multiple stakes-winning sprinter (11-41, $373,667, 11-40 in sprints) and has foaled three winners from three starters including stakes-winner Home's The Best (9-31, $392,265, 1-2 in sprints). Trainer Brian Williamson is 1-55 (2%, $0.32 ROI) over the past five years with debut runners at Arlington.
#7 C. C. BANJO is by Bowman's Band, a Grade 2 route winner that is 12-100 (12%) with debut runners. This is the first starter from the sprint-winning dam (26-5-2-6, $82,280, 5-21 in sprints). Trainer Percy Scherbenske is 3-17 (18%, $2.31 ROI) over the past five years with debut runners at Arlington.
#9 LAKE POSSE, a $20,000 yearling buy, is by Grade 2 sprint winner Posse (23-252, 9% with debut runners). This is the first starter from a route-winning mare (2-16, $50,591, 0-5 in sprints). The trainer is 1-20 (5%, $3.22 ROI) over the past five years with debut runners at Arlington, scoring with 31-1 firster Adam N Tony last year.
I'll hope that Cougar's Shadow can retain his form on synthetic.
$100 Win - Cougar's Shadow (#10)
Best of luck to all.
Back next week as we gear up for the Preakness.
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#2-@4-#7-@12 $5.00 per box=$60.00----------$1tri box=$24.00 $16.00 to win #7
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oops...last post.....I meant 77 Preakness.......Mike A
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Before I say what it is I'm going to say....To Dosselmeyer?? No offense, I'm saying this with 40+ years of watching horses run, of being able to share the same "air" with Kelso, Dr. Fager, Damascus, Ruffian, Ta Wee and Desert Vixen......Of seeing horses run 1 1/4's in 1:59-2:00 as a matter of course, of seeing Secretariat run 1 1/2 in 2:24 flat......turf races at 1 1/2 run in 2:23........and the special treat of seeing Dr. Fager set track records while carrying 132-139lbs......I said this last year before the Belmont and will repeat it again, Drosselmeyer is one of the slowest horses I've ever seen compete in the stakes ranks and should be the poster boy for the saying "Everyone can get he distance, it's whether they can do it in racehorse time that matters".......2:06+ ......GOOD GRIEF.
Van Savant
When Calvin and I started discussing Animal Kingdom last November he wasn't the stone closer you see today......he was a stalker, a close stalker. I wouldn't expect him to be too far back in the Preakness, he's shown that same tenacity running either way......As to the newcomers.......it's been my experience that while a few closers have faired well, it's the speed that will upset if at all. I'm with C......I'll wait and see what's what.
Never being a fan of Dutrow's I was happy to see Flashpoint now being trained by Wesley Ward........
Usually I keep track of how Pimlico is playing (especially on an off track) the week leading up to the Derby........for my own handicapping......not because A. Beyer perpetuated the myth that Pimlico favors inside speed the first two weeks of the meet leading to the Preakness........It hasn't really been a factor ever since Seattle Slew cooked Cormorant in 78' from the outside......watch the replay......I swear I can still hear Beyer screaming from the press box...hahahahahaha!!!!!!!Mike A
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Tuesday's Preakness Musings From My Deck:
Alanimal Kingdom = what was enticing at 20/1 gets less so at 5/2. Still the horse to beat and likely to get an even better pace scenario to close into, but 5/2? Include, but no single.
Astrology = nice pedigree (ApIndy-Quiet American); Jerome performance somewhat flattered by Adios Charrlie's effort in the Peter Pan; Still not on top...perhaps under.
Concealed Identity = Tesio winner; won last two at PIM, but not with lengthening leads. Off.
Dance City = looks best as a one-turn miler; don't see lasting to remain on the board. Off.
Dialed In = this may be his chance; potential for "wise guy" money, but if can stay 6-7/1, I'll include over and under.
Flashpoint = looks best at 6-8f; new to Ward; another likely fading in the stretch. Off.
Isn't He Perfect = broke his maiden in 5th attempt (and 3rd mc try!); 127/1 in the Gotham; 65/1 in the Wood; 39/1 in the Jerome. Off
King Congie = somewhat interesting at 20/1; won at 9f but has drifted in stretch of his route wins. Under.
Midnight Interlude = interesting rider switch (although I would have preferred Rosario) and longshot; think Louis Quatorze... On top and also under.
Mr. Commons = another 3yo sired by a former turf stakes winner; mixed feelings, but wonder if distance in perhaps a furlong too long? Off or a little under.
Mucho Macho Man = matches best 2yo Beyer in the Derby, which may be a sign of further improvement next-out; he's a gamer, but perhaps not a winner; Some on top, but definitely under.
Norman Asbjornson = the CEO of AAON; Has little chance here against the others. Off.
Shackleford = deserves more credit than I've given him in his races so far; still, suspect subpar performance this time...I never learn! Off or a little under.
Sway Away = a repeat of the San Vincente puts him right in the mix, but is he a two-turn horse? A little under.
Right now, I see it as:
A = Alanimal Kingdom
A/B = Dialed In, Midnight Interlude
C = Mucho Macho Man
Unders (3rds, 4ths) = Astrology, Mr Commons, Shackleford, Sway Away
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Vicstu,
I can think of 5.5 million reasons to run Dialed In.................
Gerry from Miami,
MKB stands for Magic Kleenex Box horses. Annie is kind enough to identify many two year olds who may make a run at the KY Derby. Any blogger interested is "given" a horse to "own, train and love" on the road to the Derby. It gives us a rooting interest and some measure of what it may really feel like to be an OWNER.
If you stick around the blog for awhile (welcome by the way), you will be eligible to play along with us. It is fun and we have been doing this for at least three years.......I know someone will correct me if I am wrong!!!
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VQ..........
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Curt V wrote:
"I guessem' you'll love the comment from the trainer of King Congie...He really worked FAST the other day.....duh ? hehn ? >>104.60.>>>>>>>phew !! Blow me down.....heeheehee........That blistering speed might put him in the lead on Saturday........roflmao......" (to vicstu)
Curt:
Yes. That is rich stuff, is it not? I remember when Billy Turner used to work The Slew 1:02 for 6 and everyone would say, C'mon Billy, you are just training Slew too slow. Who do you think you are sandbagging?
The thing was, 1:02 was slow for Slew, but Turner knew come race day Slew would be kicking down the barn and raring to go. He bent for that lead and pity the horse that goes with him.
And now we are told Congie worked really fast at 1:04.60. Fast indeed!
The clockers would not even have caught that as a breeze in the 1970s or 80s, Curt V. You know it, and I know it...we have come a long way!
Kind of like Adios Charlie's trainer saying they were going pretty fast in the Peter Pan the other day. Say what? That was the slowest PP since 2000. And I like the winner and runner up in that race a good deal. They simply worked with what they were given.
BSB,
I understand. And I pretty much agree.
BTW, anyone who was in on that moon landing stage is okay in my book!
TBTA,
Thanks. I am watching the comments of the speed closely. How can this not be an angle? Glad it makes sense to you as well.
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vicstu,
Here's what Tinky thinks about Animal Kingdom:
http://fmitchell07.wordpress.com/2011/05/16/pace-in-the-kentucky-derby/#comments
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The Preakness
As bad as I am in the Stakes field I believe that I am going to stick with the horse I thought would win the derby if he had gotten in and that is "Sway Away" I will wait for the official draw before settling on my actual wager both live and on HG if Dan ok's that choice for the HG this week
Ron B
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Annie,
Copy and paste???
My 2007 blog findings suggest that my namesake will have a hard time repeating his Derby win in the Preakness. Over the past 20 years, whereas frontrunning Derby winners (those close to the lead or on the lead 4f into the race) were likely to repeat their victory in the Preakness, Derby closers (such as Giacomo, Street Sense, MTB) didn't. Now don't throw them out of your exotics completely as they are almost always in the money, but just not on top.
It can be done (Alysheba, Pleasant Colony and Canonero II come to mind) and although AK was in the back half of the field at 4f (12th/19) in the Derby, he was only 6.25L out of the lead. However, since the Derby winner is often the Preakness favorite, beware of singling him in your multi-race wagers or singling him on top of your exotics.
On the other hand, Derby losing closers such as Dialed In should not be ignored. You need to only look to last year's Preakness winner Lookin at Lucky, 18th (out of 20) at 4f in last year's Derby.
More Preakness thoughts hopefully later today or tomorrow.
BTW, it is wet here...and likely to stay wet here thru Saturday...
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For those of you who believe in magic, I think you will like the 8th race on Thursday at Hollywood. Here is how I actually handicapped them...
Race 8 – Magic Spirit, Magic Beam, Magical Instinct DD: Warrens Wild Thing
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Gerry from Miami
Some of your posters are getting really hard to understand with their use of acronyms. It's getting like code deciphering. What does MKB stand for anyway?Woric
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As long as we are on blue babies - how about EVITA'S SISTER (Candy Ride x Jealous Wildcat, Forest Wildcat) in the 2nd at Hollywood on Thursday. Is she Evita Argentina's sister? Indeed she is. Jealous Wildcat has five foals total including this one; 2004 colt Jealously (Marquetry) $39K, 2005 colt Wild and Ready (More Than Ready) $158K, 2006 filly Evita Argentina (Candy Ride) $611K, and 2007 filly Candy's Affair (Candy Ride) $15K.
FYI - Evita Argentina was sold in 2010 and is now a brood mare in Japan.
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Here is an interesting one in the 3rd at Hollywood on Thursday, five year old maiden BELLINGHAM (Empire Maker x Belleski, Polish Numbers). His dam, Belleski, was one of my favorites and was a turf sprinter extraordinaire, winning the G-3 Ken Maddy on the downhill in 2003 and 2004 She was one tough filly and ended her career at 15-8-2-1 with earnings of $347K. She was owned by Jerry Moss, who also owns Bellingham. He obviously had some issues and didn’t debut until December, missing in a turf sprint by a length. He showed up for his second start on the hill in April and was flying in the lane and missed by ½ length. Now they are trying her in a turf route, works are excellent, Sadler trains, Rosario rides. Probably won’t get squat for odds, but he could be one of those Johnny-come-lately types that blossom big time once they are straight.
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whackymacky
Couldn't agree with you more about MMM's ride in the Derby. Think a jockey switch could get this horse to finish stronger. I liked MMM in the Derby but will tread with caution in Baltimore, especially if the rains materialize. Be interested in anyone's thoughts on the race if the track is off as predicted.
HO
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Alanimal Kingdom,
I like that Preakness wager too.
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Scian
Am thinking of going to Meadowlands for the Preakness. Any idea if it is expected to be as crowded as the Derby and do I need to get a reservation for the teletheater? Let me know if you will be there Saturday and maybe we can meet up.
mpm101
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Tuesday notes...
Weather will be cold and wet here in the Northeast over the next 3 day's. Belmont will be off the grass. Baltimore is wet. Where is the warm weather??
The Macho Man will be my Pick in the Preakness!!!
Training well, getting bigger every day. Looks like this big kid is learning about this thing called racing!!! With the shorter distance, he will be in cruising speed right off the pace. I think that they will be going Fast, but not very Fast. The weather might be a factor!!! We will wait and see. I think that Shack will be on top and will control thing's just like he did in the Derby. Animal Kingdom will also be in cruise control. The finish.
MMM // First
Animal Kingdom // Second
Shack // Third
Just looks that way to me. The new kid's on the block show me nothing.
Just picture this in my mind.
vicstu
Dialed In did come home fast, but so what. That Derby was run in some funky splits!!! It looked like they were all in cruise control down the backside. Nick Zito has been quiet, no? I don't think that they will be running 45 and change for the half. This will be run just like the Derby. Dialed In is still learning, and from what I was told, the Horse Might Not Make It To The Starting Gate!!!
Derby
I wanted MMM to make his move before AK. The Jockey on MMM waited to long!!! He had some gas in the tank and just flat out waited too long in my eyes. If you watch MMM on the far turn, he was being steadied and swayed back and forth. RM needed to pick his hole and move MMM on thru!!! JV got to his spot and made the winning move. I wonder what would happen if you put Mike Smith on MMM??? I know that MMM is a big goofy kid, but looked like he was back running late into the race.
We shall see. Hope for good weather on Friday and Saturday.
Anybody playing the Fri/Sat Double??? All // MMM ???
Whackymacky Out!!!
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Van Savant:
Here is a quick rundown of recent Derby winners who were not post time favorites in the Preakness:
2009-Mine That Bird (Yay! Rachel Alexandra)
2005-Giacomo
1999-Charismatic
1998-Real Quiet
1997-Silver Charm
1995-Thunder Gulch
It is so rare that I hit anything at big odds, unless it is a silly name bet, that I still remember the few there were, very well. I don't think Animal Kingdom is going to go off anywhere near 20-1 in the Preakness.
I do think Vicstu makes a great point that an important Preakness angle will be to listen to how the trainers train and talk about the few speed horses in this race. I am with him on the rant that the jocks do not have clocks in their heads anymore and with the lack of real stamina breeding, so many are afraid to let their horse open up a huge lead and then just hope the rest of the field never catches up.
Mike A is a sweet teddy bear! Anyone who joins him and Laura Lawduck is in for a wonderful day filled with fun handicapping, lots of great horse talk and most likely some big odds winners.
Disclaimer: He is sending me all his best picks privately in return for me posting that......:)
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Dan or anyone else,
As I was looking through the entries friday for Pimlico, I noticed a jockey H Turner in the 8th with no rides in the US this year. Is this Hayley Turner, the female jock from the UK, or someone else?
Assuming it is her, in what class would she fit on the American "totem pole" of riders?
As always, great blog
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Vicstu, I don't disagree with you that these guys tend to give away their best weapon. I expected something in the 47 3/5- 48 range and said so in Lauras chat when asked by someone. My point was that considering the only 2 speed horses in the race were both suspect at 10 f that it was just about certain that it wasn't going to be a hot pace. Often times when people see several horses with 11111 in the pps they assume duel. Those duels never happen because most of the horses that show those running lines are not fast. I posted that right after reading the Dog Racers piece. The Dog Man likes to make snide references to ZENYATTA. As if she is a plodder. Check out her MDN win at 6.5 f and tell me she's slow. The Dog Man is making excuses for why he had it wrong like a lot of LOSERS tend to do. The jockey did it !! The trainer did it !! If they would have run the race the way I envisioned it my horse would have won yadayadayada. Maybe they should have visualiZed the race the way it would be run as opposed to the way they wanted it to be run. The Derby rarely has a hot pace although the same guys predict one year after year. Comma probably had that chip BEFORE the start and it showed in his not making the lead.You haven't heard me lamenting Comma's injury or claiming it cost him the race. Why? Because I had the winner anyway . Just like I said I would umpteen times before the Derby. " I can afford to talk boldly about commanomaly because if he loses I'm going to make money anyway" Anyway I wasn't pointing the finger at you and should have made clear that I wasn't. If I was I would have said your name. I'm not shy. Just ask anybody. Good luck with the Preakness and keep up the good posts, you make things interesting around here. I'll get around to informing you on my derby betting device soon .Its very simple and effective.Most people would say too simple to be real because they want to make things more difficult than need be.
MikeA , LOL. now thats the Mike I'm used to. Have fun at the Preakness.
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"We move onto Baltimore. You can TOSS Dialed In for the Preakness!! Horse is not 100%
Remember, Whackymacky told you so, right here on Monday..."
Whacky,
My source has told me the same thing. He said DI was not 100 percent for the Derby as well. The thing is, he did not tell me that until a few minutes before post after I had already bought a ticket. So, I was ticked off because I bought my tickets from the OTB at the greyhound track, and not online through XpressBet or where ever.
In any event, I have heard nothing different since then. There were rumblings before the Derby, but nothing from my source until recently.
The thing I am struggling with is the fastest come home time since Big Red. I guess if the horse is not 100 percent they could still lope in the back and make a 3 furlongs sprint. Still, it appears to defy reason.
If there is a speed duel and DI comes home like that in the Preakness he may well win or hit the board regardless of if he is not 100 percent...
Although it is asking a lot from such a lightly raced colt.
Any thoughts?
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KYL Syndicate,
Your pick of Flashpoint for the Preakness intrigues me.
Not sure if I agree 100 percent, but if they let the horse run his race he could be dangerous...and if they lope he could be gone. Or, he could fade at 9f...
If they try and run him like he is Bernardini he is going to get caught before they ask for his run. He and Dance City and Shack need some separation from the field before the real running begins. Not the dreaded speed duel (which is apparently almost as bad as a natural disaster as far as being feared), but simply a nice pace that utilizes their best asset.
The horse has been training lights out. He is a big, powerfully built horse with the build of a sprinter but he has the back and action of a miler (IMO). For an off race, his FL Derby was nothing to be ashamed of. He did better than Soldat and a few others who were supposed to pass him. Ward is a very underrated trainer...
Either way, am looking forward to your follow up comments on the race. The way the Derby set up pace wise makes me think things could be different in the Preakness. Although I kind of agree with C about the 3 shooters from the Derby and Nehro if he goes...
But none of them will be at a price, except maybe Dialed In. Although many believe Zito had him pointed here all along. Not me, but there have been comments to that effect.
In any event, hope you post more about that pick.
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Vicstu,
I guessem' you'll love the comment from the trainer of King Congie...He really worked FAST the other day.....duh ? hehn ? >>104.60.>>>>>>>phew !! Blow me down.....heeheehee........That blistering speed might put him in the lead on Saturday........roflmao.........
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Alanimal Kingdom wrote:
"As for me, I will be at home watching my namesake on TV trying to win again..."
What, no running across the port-a-pots for you this year?
This is Bawlmer and the Preakness, hon! Someone will find a way to line those toilets all up and run across the roof drunk as a skunk no matter what the infield crew do there. And a few Maryland girls will get drunk and flash everyone and about 100 or so patrons will not see a single horse, get completely trashed, and vomit all over the infield while muttering nonsense and crying that they are going blind! And someone will film it and put it on Youtube for the world to see...And everyone will post comments about how juvenile and unsophisticated the Preakness infield is compared to the K. Derby.
And, that is what makes the Preakness the Preakness.
Can't believe you are missing all of that fun and a great race!
On second thought, yes I can...
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Interesting story about how avid a horse person the Queen of England is. Scoff if you want, but the Queen is an enormous fan of racing and has her own stable. She made it a point back in the early 1980s to visit the American turf champion Round Table when she cam to the States.
Even a couple of top trainers in Great Britain say what a natural the Queen is with horses. She has ridden and trained for years, and is now on the brink of finally winning a Derby if her horse can finish first. There is some good pictures of the Queen on her pony as a child and at the track. I could care less if this is the Queen, but as a person that obviously loves horses, I wish the Queen the best of luck:
"When her father died in 1952, she (the Queen) inherited the racing colours of the monarch — the purple jacket and scarlet sleeves worn by the royal jockeys — and the royal racing empire, which at the time consisted of 20 brood mares, seven yearlings and three two-year-old fillies at Sandringham. She also had seven horses in training, the best of which would turn out to be a colt called Aureole.
Just five days after her coronation in June 1953, the Queen had to hide her disappointment when Aureole was beaten into second place in the Derby — and 58 years later, she’s still waiting for a winner.
But now, she might just be on the brink of achieving that ambition. On June 4, her three-year-old colt Carlton House — named after a former royal residence in Pall Mall — is strongly fancied to win the Derby."
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-1387761/Queen-brink-fulfilling-lifelong-ambition-winning-Derby.html#ixzz1MZoAE3Yw
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If they decide to run Alternation in the Belmont, I hope all of the big names show up. I really think that he has as much upside as any of the "stars."
It's his third start off a 90 day layoff. (He freaked out and was scratched out of Rebel)
He is a galloper. Made for the Belmont.
He has a current victory over the track. His Peter Pan looks better than Fly Down's Dwyer from last year.
And more than likely, he has Ramon Dominguez on his back.
Oh yeah. There's something familiar about his damsire. ;-)
All I can do is hope that he sneaks off >10/1.
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Steve T,
Thanks for the thoughts. We are and will stay dry in Baton Rouge and New Orleans. Flooding from the river has never been a huge concern so ignore all that garbage from the 24 hour news networks. Both spillways have been opened and Morganza spillway will flood about 10,000 people out f their homes and Bonnet Carre spillway problems are usually limited to allowing fresh water into Lake Ponchartrain which will further damage our oyster production so instead of filtering and upchucking tar balls from BP now the oysters just drink fresh water and die.
Lil Chok put me on a bet that looks pretty good. The Wynn has Animal Kingdom 6-1 to win the triple crown. Think Im all in. ANyone have some thoughts on that? After explaining the math to me if you parlayed animal kingdom in next 2 races, Lil Chok makes it seem as if you are getting the best of it with 6-1.
BEBC
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The Derby is a prep for the Preakness? Are you suggesting that trainers use the Derby to prep for their ultimate goal, the Preakness? I don't think so. There may be several reasons why most Preakness winners come out of the Derby, but trainer intent is not one of them.
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Ron B
Congrats on HG 'maiden' this week.
& MH01 I'll also include you in my comment regarding maidens. I like the maiden races/ runners, usually the 2nd, maybe 3rd time starters. I like to use Uncle Steve's "maiden progression" angle. You can find it over at Thoroughbredink. But, I'll keep and add your other points to my notes.
Also, Thanks for breaking down your race thoughts, & as you point out, how a horse works into a race is important to see. A nice work 2nd or third back, which is another angle my 'Uncle' points out .. I like that.
'agreand cement'
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a couple of more items...
Congrats to BLACK CAVIAR on making it 13 straight. The race hasn't been posted to Youtube yet but to win these races with absolutely authority while being geared down late is amazing..
Good article on BBC website on FRANKEL http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/other_sports/horse_racing/9472939.stm
Doubtful we will ever see BLACK CAVIAR or FRANKEL run in the US but continue success to them...
Finally, GOLDIKOVA is nearing a race...
In an age where most of the good horses don't run either in enough races or retire way too soon (ZENYATTA is an exception as Moss was nice enough to have her run one more year), its good to see superstars in BLACK CAVIAR, FRANKEL and GOLDIKOVA bring chills to us...
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Van Savant,
Interesting data on the Preakness, I'm not sure if this holds water, but I've always been under the same impression with the Derby being a prep for the Preakness. In addition, I've always thought that the winning horse more often than not was either the favorite in the Derby or won the Derby. I have not looked closely enough at the data to see if that is actually true or that I'm just selectively remembering a few instances where that was true. I know a few instances where that was not quite true as Curlin was not the favorite (I think he was second choice just behind Street Sense) and I also think Afleet Alex was second choice to Bellamy Road (who was 5-2 of that 120 Beyer Wood romp). Obviously the ones you mentioned already that were not in the Derby apply here as well. I think most of the rest from recent years were winners of the Derby that also won the second leg of the Triple Crown or were favored in the Derby like Point Given. I guess that bodes well for DIaled In and Animal Kingdom, but there is always the exception.
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I'm back and don't you forget it!
Dosselmeyer
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Early look at card for rest of week...rain in forecast till Thursday in NY thus grass races are likely all off turf until Saturday and rain is unfortunately also expected in Pimlico...will expand more on Wednesday or Thursday after the programs, odds and weather become clearer...
Wednesday May 18
...Nothing stands out at Belmont today thus no wagers will be made
Thursday May 19
...Nothing stands out at Belmont today thus no wagers will be made
Friday May 20
Belmont Race 3: DEPUTY MAJOR
Belmont Race 4: CHAIRMAN NOW / 1-8-9-5-6
Belmont Race 6: BAIL OUT THE BANKS / 1-2-3-6-7
Pimlico Race 10: HOT SUMMER / 1-4
Pimlico Race 11: ROSE CATHERINE / 3-4
Saturday May 21
Pimlico Race: FLASHPOINT
tommytwotone, Mike A and Mickey...thanks...
Good luck to everyone this week...
http://www.theobjectiveistowin.blogspot.com/
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Bummer
...created a lenghty post-LV post , and lost it all when the DRF website 'no longer was available'?
oh well, in short:
Mike A
...would the Den Mother tell a lie? You and Laura Lawduck are wonderful persons, and I hope you have fun at Pimlico Saturday. Laura, I'm soooo glad you are FINALLY going to the Preakness.
Blackseabass
Red Board Alert (...is it a Redboarding if you DON'T wager?)
ahh, SANQUINE...as only a couple of names I checked off yesterday while Katie & I were at a 'locals' casino. I considered a "Katie angle" an exacta with the overwhelming fav over a few longshots, with a small wps on SANQUINE...did I wager? of course not.
Ex paid 26.00 and as you said 10.60 for the place.
Katie did hit a small super in the next race, and the exacta....but cleaned up winner-winner-chicken-dinner style at the slots and the roulette wheel.
We had fun seeing alot of the OLD and NEW LV ( Big Elvis, Zip line anyone? ) but Katie's highlight was a 5K run at sunset outside Red Rock Canyon , and she finished it 'Zenyatta' strong!
Just breezing thru the posts, but as usual, some really good stuff!
Jeanne BENCHPONINT and vicstu RUNFLATOUT was a gret race! Well done you two MKB owners.
...yesterday race highlight , was Belmont's announcer's call of Drosselmeyer's race. His excitement and hoarse voice, with his final ending "now, That was FUN" says it all!
Annie
...have fun with the new computer :)
I'm looking forward to The Preakness and Blackeye Susan. I will be entertaining a brother who will be in town, but will be watching it. ummm, may take him downtown for a Zip line ride with ME!
'vent xpeakes'
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Here's a shocker - Calhoun is running Grind in a 15k MC @Indiana Downs tomorrow (race 2).
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... and in an era of lightly-raced horses and in a year where there still isn't a 3yo who really stands out above the rest, I wouldn't downgrade the new shooters one bit. That said, the Derby runners (Animal Kingdom, Nehro if he goes, Dialed In, Mucho Macho Man) are still better than Norman Asbjornson, Concealed Identity, etc. I'll handicap the race first, and then worry about which side of history I'm on.
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Van Savant,
The new shooters are often not quite as good as the horses who run well enough before the Derby to qualify under the current system... and then show enough in the race to encourage their connections to try the Preakness. It's probably not that surprising and I wouldn't get too carried away with it. There were 3 new shooters in the early 80s and 3 during the 2000s. If it weren't for a long gap between 1984-1999, it wouldn't seem all that compelling.
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Dan:
Your blog is always informative. I'm seeking ANY info on the freak Maclean's Music. Works and news were plentiful until the unfortunate passing of Mr. Jackson in mid-April. Reading between the lines it seems at least possible a horse of this caliber may be being shopped. Any idea whether it was an injury, potential sale or some other factor?
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BSB...looking at the result charts of yesterday's races at HP i noticed "sanquine". i didn't have a form in front of me but i saw the horse was claimed out of its last race at a lower level. so they move the horse up to 32k, move him over 2 the turf and a turnback in distance. i c how u got 20-1 on him. i checked out his pedigree...bred 4 the turf... i made a note on the trainer.
"mikeA is a sweet teddy bear"
i wonder how many eyebrows u raised with that qoute.
my best guess is 15%
VQ
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vicstu,
My 25-year old son is coming down for the "race" this year (he's really coming down to party on the infield) with three of his buddies specifically because of the Kegasus ad. The last time he went three years ago, one of his friends was kicked out and had to wait outside until the race was over because he was caught running on top of the Porta-Potties. They changed the layout of the Potties last year to keep that from ever happening again. As for me, I will be at home watching my namesake on TV trying to win again...
bsb,
Thanks! I hope the contest winner was also playing "on the side", because he could have made an enormous amount of money on Saturday.
Molesap and Van Savant,
You may find this of interest. Back when my father was alive, I used to send out emails to my friends and family about picks for the big races (Triple Crown, Travers and Breeders' Cup) - my dad always wanted a $20 bet to make at the local OTB. I then started a blog for a couple of years to make it easier for me to disseminate the information to the group. This is old (2007 Triple Crown season) from that blog, but it is regarding looking at how Derby horses fare in the Preakness:
http://retiredandroasting.blogspot.com/2007/05/from-derby-to-preakness-i-hope-you.html#links
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Monday notes...
This game can really pi** you off...
In the Peter Pan, I get caught at the wire with $400 to win on #8 Adios Charlie!! At 3.00-1 odds, I would be happy with the $1600 bucks added back into my Twinspires account. AAARRRGGGHHH!!!
In the Laz Barrera, I get bumped on the turn and get outrun to the wire. I get beat by a nose!!! With $800 to win on #1 Runflatout at 2.10-1 odds, I would be happy with the $2,480 bucks added into my Twinspires account. DOUBLE AAARRRGGGHHH!!!
What is the moral of the story???
I did get the place $$, but I lost $$ for the weekend. If those 2 wagers come in, I make $$ for the weekend. Tough game. This is how it goes. Just really pi**ed off. These were my 2 Best Play's!!!
A NOSE and a HEAD!!!!! Adios Charlie was in the slop and had the lead in deep...
Bruins lost in game 1, Celtic's are done. Oh, the Red Sox SWEPT the pathetic Yankees in New York.
So it wasn't a total loss for the weekend.
We move onto Baltimore. You can TOSS Dialed In for the Preakness!! Horse is not 100%
Remember, Whackymacky told you so, right here on Monday...
Good luck to all this week. Dan, I hope that you make it to Baltimore. Catch a ride with Mike A.!!!
That would be one heck of a ride!!!
Whackymacky Out!!!
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Speaking of 3x3 RFers, I forgot to mention Theyskens' Theory (remember her from last year's Juvie fillies?) returned to racing with an easy victory in a listed stakes at York on Friday. Her next start is likely next month in the Coronation stakes at Royal Ascot.
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Watched Secretariat last night. Thats the 2nd worst movie ever made. Closely rivaling Birth of a Nation for all-time worst. Complete with a cast of stumblebums that made a grammer school production look like Broadway. Yuck. Anybody involved with that piece of trash should be horse whipped and I don't mean with a PETA whip.
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Dan
If I did win the HG can we use the Preakness for this weeks HG?? I know I am really bad in stakes races but I still keep trying.
Ron B
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Muddled through yesterday with 3 winners from 4 wagers. $37 ,$20 & $6. All at GG. Just lucky I guess.I better enjoy it now. I never know when it might happen again ! LOL.
Beaten derby favorites or near favorites & horses that didn't run their race in the Derby for one reason or another return to win the Preakness sometimes. Lucky , Timber Country, Prairie Bayou and others . Non- derby runners rarely win the Preakness, Alomas Ruler, Bernardini & RA come to mind. They do hit the board sometimes at good numbers. Olivers Twist ,Magic Wiesner etc.
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Alanimaking,
To say that I was skeptical when I saw the totals would be an understatement.
My theory is: No evil captcha; no evil security. A nice little "Bot" can do a lot of efficient work.
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Regarding the slow derby pace. Why would anybody think it was going to be a fast or moderate pace ? There was EXACTLY one horse in the field that EVER ran the first 4 f in less than 45 even in a sprint. If you were expecting Soldat or any of the other plodders that were suppossed to be SPEED horses to crack 48 you weren't reading the form very closely.
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BTW,
There is an interesting FTS running at MTH today that I have been following for almost a year - his name is Brooklyn Legend. This 3yo is by Congrats out of the Holy Bull mare, Amber Myth. Amber Myth is out of Ap Indy's HS Amirati...this makes Brooklyn Legend a 3x3 RFer. He is inbred to Weekend Surprise thru Ap Indy and Amirati. Despite her pedigree, this was Amber Myth's first cross with an Ap Indy horse (2yo FS Conzig was her 2nd...she's yet to race).
Brooklyn Legend was a Gr1 OBSAPR10 Breeze Fig, 7-over-PAR with a stride length >1.5 ft above average! You could have bought him for just $102K at the OBSAPR10 sale.
Brooklyn Legend is 7/2 on the morning line. No matter what, I'll be playing Brooklyn Legend today because I've waited long enough for him to start! Hopefully he'll be as good as I've hoped he would be...
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Alananimal,
The chalks hurt me early, but I managed Alternation $9.40/4.40 and Korban $17.40/5.40 with a couple of other place horses.
It was fun, can't wait until another comes along.
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Dan (or any other Formbloggers),
Is anyone able to send a comment to Formblog on an IPad? Every time I try, including for the message below, I get stopped by CAPTCHA! It won't accept my CAPTCHA answer from the IPad! I have to email the message to my laptop to then get it on Formblog. I'm waiting for Uncle Steve to get his IPad, as I'm sure he'll find a fix to the problem...but Dan, is DRF aware of this issue?
Yogi,
This was the Top 10 Leaderboard from yesterday's TVG Online Challenge - top 3 go to NHC (out of 3306 entered...less than 1 in a 1000...YIKES!!). You needed to average a $14+ per race payout to make the NHC yesterday!:
Rank Player Payout
1 hardhead1 $184.20
2 NIX MCTWIMKLE $143.80
3 awooju $142.30
4 JAN'SNIV $126.50
5 GOLDFINISH $125.70
6 PEDIGREE ANN $125.60
7 BMALLOY $125.50
8 SCOOTERBROWN $123.90
9 SpringBabe $122.60
10 TIMQUINN14@GMAILCOM $122.50
Here were the results from each contest race:
R1 MTH6
1st Turbo Compressor (Bravo) $4.40 + $3.40 = $7.80
2nd Federal Exchange (Marquez, Jr.) $9.80
R2 MTH7
1st All of the Above (Bravo) $4.20 + $2.80 = $7.00
2nd The Hunk (Marquez, Jr.) $3.20
R3 MTH8
1st Dueling Alex (Luzzi) $5.80 + $3.20 = $9.00
2nd Nacho Friend (Valdivia, Jr.) $5.40
R4 BEL8
1st Gimme Credit (Castellano) $5.20 + $3.20 = $8.40
2nd Mr. Vegas (Curatolo) $6.50
R5 BEL9 (Peter Pan S.)
1st Alternation (Dominguez) $9.40 + $4.40 = $13.80
2nd Adios Charlie (Maragh) $4.40
R6 BEL10
1st Sam Hillic (Lezcano) $20.80 + $9.50 = $30.30
2nd Annawon (Prado) $4.50
R7 HOL5
1st Every Ego (Bejarano) $42.00 + $16.60 = $58.60
2nd Uncle Greg (Rosario) $4.60
R8 HOL6
1st Chokecherymary (Sutherland) $13.20 + $6.40 = $19.60
2nd Hey I'm Sobaa (Valenzuela) $12.20
R9 HOL7
1st Smug (Talamo) $13.60 + $7.00 = $20.60
2nd Lemou (Rosario) $6.00
R10 HOL8
1st Korban (Valenzuela) $17.40 + $5.40 = $22.80
2nd Legal Separation (Rosario) $3.00
So all of your good handicapping in correctly picking the chalk in the first 5 contest races (and winning them all) was negated yesterday by picking just one or two of the longer shots on the rest of the contest card.
And get this! From my quick calculations (please check my math to make sure I'm correct), the maximum you could get in the contest yesterday by picking all the highest WP totals from each contest race was $199.90 (or from picking each race winner was $197.90), and the contest winner got just $15.70 less than the maximum? Was he related to Jay Trotter? Yesterday's contest winner likely picked the four HOL races straight! A straight $1 P3 of HOL races 5-7 yesterday paid $4572.50. A straight $1 P3 of HOL races 6-8 "only" paid $471.50. 4 out of 6 of the HOL P6 yesterday paid out to $2,286.20...and the contest winner likely got the 4 HOL contest races of that P6 sequence right without even playing the other two races of the Pick6! Simply amazing!! The last time something this amazing happened was the P6 payout for the 2002 Breeders' Cup..... :-)
Only kidding about the last line...but pretty amazing contest horseplaying, huh?
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"Regarding the slow derby pace. Why would anybody think it was going to be a fast or moderate pace ? There was EXACTLY one horse in the field that EVER ran the first 4 f in less than 45 even in a sprint. If you were expecting Soldat or any of the other plodders that were suppossed to be SPEED horses to crack 48 you weren't reading the form very closely." -BSB
So, why wasn't that single
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Monzon ran like a horse who needed a race and some class relief.....or turf?
Alternation......nice race...I was surprised Adios Charlie got caught....they ran those quicker fractions, preferring not to rate, opened a big lead at the head of the lane, but was caught anyway.....go figure. While I'll take nothing away from the winner, who may actually improve as he stretches out, Adios Charlie was at his absolute limit. Which, around 1 turn isn't flattering......The time, while comparable to other 3 yr.olds in numbers, wasn't in reality.....one turn races at Belmont are usually faster, especially with the track being as quick as it has been. So while Alternation may improve, I'm not seeing the horses that ran behind the top two as next out bets, of course depending on where they enter.......I miss the old days......Mike A
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I'm en fuego right now. I've made one bet today and got nailed on the line with Sanquine at 20-1 the longest shot on the board. Paid $10 to place. Would have paid $20 if anybody but the odds on favorite had nailed him.
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P Ensign
Thanks....Danny Kaye huh......sounds familiar.....I agree he's really good.....I've never seen so much info put into a chart before.....it was almost as good as watching the replay......
MH01........No, my bad.....Luigi P was a first round pic.....but after further deliberation I left him out of the top two spots. If we had only spoke....I was keen on Holy Ego as post neared, especially after seeing the track was playing towards speed/pace. My only key play yesterday was the first....after that I was stabbing......that race with Holy Ego/Luigi P was one I should have put a knife through......No bets today......the only horses I really liked were the two Toner fillies who ran 1-2 in the 3rd. I was on the phone talking about the race with a blogger and called it.....just didn't play it. Did the same yesterday in the 10th with Sam Hillic......oh well......If I had a nickel for every time that happened.......Keep it up......
KYL........things are looking up!!
Ron B........nice HG score......
BSB........ditto the pace of the Derby.....hey by the way.....don't use up all this years wins so early....there's alot of racing left.....LOL!!..........
Hello Mr and Mrs America and all the ships at sea.......flash......Laura Lawduck and I are going to be at Pimlico Saturday.......anyone that is planning a trip and would like to say hello....let us know.......Don't fret.....Laura is a sweetheart and believe it or not I'm not as bad as you may think.....ask TBTA and SR Vegas, would they lie??.......Mike A
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LIL CHOK, you certainly sound as if you know what you're doing. Keep it up. BTW thats the MorganZa spillway with a capital Z. LOL. I hope everything is alright for you down there.
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Meathead01 , LOL. I did help set up the asteroid landing in Armageddon though . I'm enjoying a rack of PETA member short ribs at the moment. Its PETA freak season here on the mountain.LOL. That gal with the malarkey on the abuse of Shack crawls out of the woodwork on big race weekends to claim abuse of the horses. I've read her shtick in the past . She's a PETA plant.
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Van Savant , nice work . A PENSIVE and AGILE mind should be able to remember back a couple of years. Maybe DavidowitZ has Rockamundos in his cabeZa. Heres something to PONDER, maybe DavidowitZ was abducted by a LIL E. T. and had his memory erased. Because I'm feeling laZy I won't look it up butts... I think it was '82-83 that Gato del Sol won the Derby and didn't contest the Preakness. More unusual circumstances. Every race is a prep for the horses next race unless followed by a long lay off. Recency (read Derby) trumps the idea of fresh as it does in almost all races. Most modern trainers are inbred 3x4x5 to lemmings. LOL. How ignorant must they be to think NFL football players can play once a week but racehorses can barely race every 5 weeks. Kind of goes against the old saying "strong as a horse" no?
Alanimal Kingdom , loved the references to Jay Trotter & the BC Fix-Six. LOL. Yes I would say amaZing.
I have an UNBRIDLED love for the TC trail. Always on the LOOKOUT for that next classic winner. From OMAHA to KINGMAN to JOHNSTOWN to SPOKANE to NEEDLES. In the spring I feel like a LUCKY DEBONAIR MAJESTIC PRINCE living a life of RILEY like a fat GATO DEL SOL BUBBLING OVER with BROKERS TIPs.Standing on the MERIDIAN of the MIDDLEGROUND repelling the ASSUALTs of El Bakans of speed & pace & making a SPECTACULAR BID to decipher the mysteries of classic pedigree. Hold the mint julips, keggersuses and white carnations. I'd rather GO FOR GIN
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Sunday....
Spot play
Hollywood
Race #3 #1 Runflatout
Class / Jockey / Price / Will close and get up at the wire!!!
$800 Win / Place
Tough beat in the Peter Pan yesterday. Adios Charlie is a nice horse and I was surprised that he got caught!!! The price was right and he just couldn't get his nose down in front first...
Good luck... nice work yesterday MH01, Mike A. and others who cashed. Nice to go on a shopping spree Annie!!!!! You Da Blue Thong!!!
Hollywood Race #1. What a MESS!!!! #1 declared a non starter!!! NO SHOW WAGERING!!! How many ticket's have been tossed into the trash or onto the ground??? Sprung the #1 early. What the heck??
Whackymacky Out!!!
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They are down to 352 in the Show Me the Money contest at Hollywood (3800 started) and guess who is #352? That's right, with a record of 0 wins, 3 places and 4 shows... I am just playing possum and will sneak up on them, really. So anybody planning on playing Miss Georgie Girl today, I would suggest a show bet.
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Alanimal Kingdom,
I had to ask:
Since you are obviously a hybrid combination of our own Rev. Alan the retired MD turned handicapper and the Kentucky Derby winner, what are the chances that you will be putting in an appearance or cameo at the Preakness with another Maryland hybrid?
Kegasus and Alanimal Kingdom track side at Pimlico next Saturday?!!! Give us all first heads up here!
If the world does not end on the 21st, of course. Those billboards are everywhere : P
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OK, one more...
I'm playing the MTH P5 with a minnow ticket today, with my msw RF 2yo in th e2nd leg and a single in the first:
MTH6
#1 Brother in Arms (ML:3/1) - last seen at MTH in July when 2nd in the Tyro stakes; if that May4 work is legit, watch out. (P5 single #1; WP #1)
My $36 P5 ticket:
#1/4,6,9/1,7,8/1,3,4,6/4,5
Good luck today!!
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Curt V,
A length or two at the top of the stretch was not enough for AC, especially after splitting horses...he is very game, but Alternation was just too much horse in deep stretch (this race, anyhow).
Alternation certainly showed his damsire's stamina and heart out there. That was not a fast pace and he had a nice turn of foot and he nailed a very game horse with tactical speed at the wire.
Which goes to my point that I love to make over and over again: a horse gets as much (if not more) stamina and class from underneath (as the horse does from his sire). He is a big, long striding horse. That was every bit of Seattle Slew in that stretch. Were you thinking of Distorted Humor?
Slew could have easily passed on his LH-X large heart gene to his daughter Alternate, who in turn gave it to Alternation. I would like to see this horse given a Summer Bird like trip galloping around Big Sandy for the Belmont Stakes. Stranger things have happened, right?
As for Adios Charlie, he is the type of racehorse you would just love to own or train. He looks like he is dead game and has tactical speed and will be in every race 9 furlongs and under for the WPS. And, yes it was the slowest Peter Pan in the past several years, and one of the 3 slowest in the past 20 years, but you can blame the pace and the jocks for that---Alternation came home A-OK. And yes, this is no AP Indy line here--it is The Slew underneath, large and in charge.
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"Vic
whether the typo was intentional or un - "jokey" is very funy.... (p ensign)"
It was unintentional, p ensign, but what can I say? It speaks for itself! (LOL).
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Mike,
if Dan doesn't catch your question about the NY Chartcaller, it's Danny Kay - don't know when he started on the gig, but I noticed him earlier this year with his exhaustive recounts of the premiere NYRA meet, the Inner Track at the big A...glad to see he's still got the job
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Annie -
Very nice recap of the MKB performance list! I want to thank you again for my boy Decisive Moment. I will continue to follow his career (if anyone cares to write about him). Jeremy Plonk @ESPN did have this to say in his Derby wrap-up: "DECISIVE MOMENT: He ran as well as expected, pressing the early pace, but simply faded from the steep rise in competition and quality of the front-end opposition. Few horses trained as strongly as this one Derby Week and he's got a real shot to be a player on the lower-end of the 3-year-old stakes around the country later this year. Don't sleep on him in Derbies in places like West Virginia, Iowa, Oklahoma and the like. " I'd sure like to know if he came out of the race ok and where he goes from here.
Seems like you're enjoying the fruits of your handicapping coup! :-)
Kudos to Ron B on the amazing HG 233 triumph!
sherpa
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"If you thought the Peter Pan’s 57th running took a while to unfold, that is an accurate assessment. The Peter Pan’s final time of 1:49.53 for 1 1/8 miles was the slowest since Postponed registered a 1:49.71 clocking to win in 2000. Beyond that, you have to go back to Lost Mountain (149.40 in 1991), Back Bay Barrister (1:50 in 1984) and Keenation (1:50 in 1960) to find comparably pedestrian times."
David Grenig, DRF.com article.
So, what's new? Luke warm fractions and a tepid final time. This happens in almost every race over 1 mile these days. Even in a single turn 9 furlongs race on Big Sandy, which used to favor horses that could show speed or press speed.
I thought Adios Charlie did OK to hang on as long as he did, considering he moved when he did and got ever the small jump on the closer Alternation. Still, you could tell that Alternation would eventually get that head up. Ramon rode him well, especially considering the pace. These days everyone kinds of lopes along up front and then the real running starts with about 2 furlongs to go.
Which will always favor the closers and stalkers with that extra gear.
Like C has said, you don't have to condone it; merely acknowledge it and bet around it.
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Annie
" so no MKB exacta today"
Aha! But I hope someone caught the MKB exacta of Derivative (Keith L) and City Cool ( Calvin Carter) 5/14 CD #9 ..the Ex paid 37.20 :)
I'll be back later, Hopelessly behind on posting anything MKB, but Katie and I are having fun.
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Sunday May 15
Cloudy skies on the East Coast and rain is in the forecast thus will tread lightly today.
Belmont Race 3: SUNLIGHT SONATA
In her first career start, she was tipped off but ran abysmally on the mud. The rumor was then that she was meant for the turf and once again the money came in making her the favorite and even after setting soft splits, she folded. Makes her first start as a 3 year old and I have seen several Toner runners get touted early, do horrible and then a year later they come back to break their maiden at a price. Let's see if she fits the bill.
1 Super 10/3-4-6-8-9 ; 1 Super 10/3-9/3-4-6-8-9-7 ; 5 Pick 4 from Race 2 3-4/10/6/3-9-10-11 ; 5 Pick 4 4/10/6/3-9-11
Belmont Race 4: FRAZIL
Morning line favorite at 2/5 and little to say as he should dominate this field. The question is identifying the cold exacta horse thus changing a 2/5 win wager into perhaps a 3/2 exacta wager. The 1, 2, 3 and 5 like to come from behind while the 4 and 7 both have some speed which allows them to have a tactical advantage.
10 Super 6/4-7/2-4-7/ALL
Belmont Race 6: GENTLE RIDE
Was 1 for 10 in 2010 but that one win was at 50-1 and in all her turf starts she has always shown good early speed and with an outside draw today, she can clear early and take this field wire to wire.
1 Super 10/2-3-7-8-9 ; 2 Super 10/2-9/2-3-8-9 ; 10 Pick 3 10/1-3-5-6-10/1
Monmouth Park Race 3: WESTERN FLYER
The two favorites are vulnerable as the last effort on the 3 who I wagered on at Aqueduct was very poor and a sprint distance is too short for the 6. The 2 has speed and will see how he is bet early but the selection is Western Flyer who has the ability to lead if needed, but will likely stalk the 2 and with a recency edge may have enough to take over approaching the stretch.
5 Super 5/2-3-6 ; 5 Super 5/6/1-2-3
Monmouth Park Race 10: SUCCESSFUL SONG
Morning line odds of 9/2 but realistically she'll probably go off at 2-1 or less and deservingly so. Not only has Prado shown up for the ride but her two races this year, the two horses she lost to would be prohibitive favorites in here. The 2 and 8 are outclass, the 6 has speed but is questionable at the distance while the 3 is coming off a layoff. The 4 and 7 are the logical horses to use underneath Successful Song who will stalk the 6 early before taking over as much the best.
5 Super 5/4-6-7 ; 5 Super 5/4-7/3-4-6-7 ; 5 Super 5/7/ALL/4 ; 5 Super 5/7/4/ALL
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Once again speaking of 3x3 Rasmussen Factor horses, Stevie Wonderboy, who was inbred 3x3 to Weekend Surprise thru her sons ApIndy and Summer Squall, just had his 1st babe run at WO1. I think the 2yo FTS, The Mighty Sparrow, may have come in last...
OK, I'm done for today - I've reached the 4 post/day Formblog limit!
Good luck today!! BEL P6 carryover...
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Saturday May 14
Belmont Race 2: KATSKILL BAY
I bet against this horse last week as it was a major drop by Dutrow but the horse ran a lifetime best whereby Lezcano decided with the rail draw to put the horse in the race early, took the lead, set solid splits, allowed horses to range up to him on the turn and just simply ran away from them winning as much the best. Was claimed by a barn who has not won first time off the claim the 15 times they tried this move, but the wheelback in one week is a positive sign. In addition, they also got Castellano named on the horse so another good sign. I actually wouldn't mind seeing them scratch the horse and take a double bump up in class as the odds would be better then. But if he does run, he'll make it two straight and will make some barn happy who claims him.
10 Triple 8/ALL/1 ; 5 Super 8/1/4-5-6-7 ; 1 Super 8/1-4-5/1-4-5-6-7 ; 2 Pick 4 8 / 1-3-4-5 / 5 / 1-4-8 ; 5 Pick 4 8 / 1-4 / 5 / 4-8 ; 50 Win 8
Belmont Race 4: STRATEGIC MOVE
Two races this year have resulted in impressive wins and off those wins was given some time off. Had a solid workout on Wednesday which is a positive sign and with an outside draw in this small field of 6, Dominguez will have the luxury of seeing how the field breaks as Strategic Move can run on the lead if no one wants it or sit off the duel that may result with the 1, 4 and 6. Horse is in sharp form and taken to win his third straight.
10 Triple 5/ALL/3 ; 5 Triple 5/2-3-6 ; 10 Triple 5/3/ALL ; 10 Triple 5/3/2-6
Belmont Race 9: BOLD DEED
Although the strong fractions set last out was in a one turn mile race at Aqueduct, he faces the same configuration at Belmont. This is an ambitious step up in class but I take this as a positive as I don't believe Hushion makes these type of moves unless he was confident in his colt's ability. Bold Deed will likely have the early lead but hopefully has learned how to rate a bit and conserve something for the stretch. Will try and bottom out this field at a price.
1 Super 7/2-3-6-8-11 ; 30 Grand Slam from Race 1/1/3/7 ; 30 Win 7
Monmouth Park
Opening day at Monmouth Park and its interesting to see Mike Luzzi is riding at the Jersey Shore and if he winds up riding there on a daily basis, he has a chance to win the jockey race. With Levine always having a presence in NJ and now with Dutrow sending runners there too, Luzzi should have first call for them and that's a major plus.
Monmouth Park Race 1: NIKOSI REIGNS
The scratch of the morning line favorite is significant as this now allows Nikosi Reigns who has two wins and three placings from five starts at Monmouth Park as the lone speed in here. Blinkers are removed which is find considering his last three starts with them were off the board finishes. Depending on how much play is taken by the 3 will dictate whether Nikosi Reigns is a strong favorite, but will wager against the 3 as his last two efforts after being claimed has been horrendous.
25 Exacta 8/2-4 ; 5 Super 8/2-4/2-3-4/1-2-3-4 ; 5 Super 8/4/2/1-3-6
Monmouth Park Race 3: CINNAMON ROAD
Has faced better and also has a recency edge over his main competitors. Inside draw will allow Cotto to go out for the early lead and may get away with setting some soft splits. Likely be in the 8/5 range thus will look to the exotic.
5 Super 2/3-5-6 ; 5 Super 2/5-6/3-5-6/1-3-4-5-6
Monmouth Park Race 10: MOVIN' OUT
A healthy This Ones For Phil would easily handle this field but comes off a small layoff after running horrible and has the dreaded rail draw so will try and beat him. Bravo will likely send from the rail but expect to see pace pressure applied by the 4 who has sharp speed but comes off a layoff so may need the race. The 5 also has some speed but isn't as quick early. The selection is MOVIN' OUT who has run well this year but more importantly an outside draw from the speed is to his advantage as Vaz can judge whether to go early or if there is a pace battle as expected, he can tuck right behind and swing out for the drive.
10 Triple 6/7/ALL ; 5 Triple 6/ALL/7 ; 10 Triple 6/1-7 ; 20 Triple 6-7-1 ; 50 Cent Pick 5 from Race 6 2-5/2/1-2-3-4-6/4-5-7/6
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Yogi,
I initially try to find horses 5-15/1 that are overlays in the race. My later picks depend on my contest position. I tend to panic too early and go for ~20/1 bombs when I'm behind, rather than stay disciplined in keeping to the 5-15/1 strategy. When I'm ahead, I'll tend sometimes toward more likely, lower odds horses down to 3/1, but not lower. If I like a longer shot, I'll stick with my original selection. At an average of once per contest, I unfortunately switch out of a winner...I can't help it...
I rarely take the chalk (and BTW when I do, they usually lose!) You won't win these mega contests (3 spots for 1000+ entrants) by playing chalk. You should figure that you'll need to average ~$9-10 of WP winnings a race to qualify in a mega contest. For example, these were the Top10 finishers in last year's 10 race Kentucky Derby/Oaks Challenge (I was 2nd in that one, but had already qualified in a previous contest):
1 DFLANZBAUM $116.60
2 RETIREDANDROASTING (NHC Qualified) $100.40
3 MICHAEL JOHN HARRINGTON $98.60
4T DBUCHOLTZ $97.00
4T FLORIDAGMAN $97.00
6 rbauder@telusplanet.net $94.60
7 jamiept $91.40
8 JLOCKHART JR $89.80
9 DLISENBERG $88.40
10 ALIXSAGAMEZ $87.00
Ron,
There were 12 tickets in the Players' Pool - I just didn't cut and paste the losing ones. They use all the money and even had $20 and $3 Super Hi5 tickets this time. I don't have the ROI stats...I guess I could go back and check each W2G I've gotten from them but that's too much work. Instead, this is from the Pool's Homepage:
"The Players' Pool has had good fortune over the years including a score last September taking one of only 5 tickets at Saratoga worth $408,356. Also, last June we also had one of only 5 tickets in the Belmont Stakes Day Carryover Pick 6 ($3.3 Million Pool). The net return was $437,386. The Players’ Pool also hit the 2007 Kentucky Derby Pick Six twice, taking two of the four winning tickets in the entire country. The gross return was over $500,000."
They have three experts on the Players Pool panel - they are all excellent handicappers (as is Bryan Wagner's wife BTW, Judy, who won the NHC 10 years ago). This is again from the website:
Rich Nilsen - Is a founding member of the Players' Pool panel and has lead the group to several large scores over the years. A five-time contest winner, Rich served as Director of Marketing for Brisnet.com for 17 years and Tournament Director for TwinSpires.com since 2007.
Bryan Wagner - The 2009 NHC Tour champion comes off an incredible year on the handicapping tournament trail. Bryan is a racehorse owner from New Orleans who brings over 30 years of handicapping experience to the panel.
Tim Holland - Tim Holland finished 3rd in the 2003 NHC, one of five times he has qualified for the National Handicapping Championship. He has worked for Brisnet.com for over five years and is currently part of the team creating the Daily Selection Sheets.
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Saturday Spot Plays...
Let's make some $$$:
Belmont Race #9 The Peter Pan
#8 Adios Charlie $400 Win / Place
Coming right back with this one.
CD Race #10 Unbridled Sidney S.
#2 Wild About Marie $400 Win / Place
Inside Post / Jockey / Price. Wire to wire.
Hollywood Park Race #3 Jim Murray H.
#1 Falcon Rock (IRE) $400 Win / Place
Will be coming / Jockey / Price / Loves distance.
Woodbine Race #8 Hendrie S.
#7 Dr. Zic $400 Win / Place
Jockey up / Class / Price.
Golfing, then a few cold drinks, then back to watch the racing.
Good Luck To All Punters Today!!!
Thanks Dan.
Whackymacky Out!!!
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C,
Re: the "creative" Shack bonus.
I guess Frank S and co. are flying high with Kegasus and are throwing the money around...
What do they care if they end up in Chapter 11 Bankruptcy?
Wait, weren't they just there or real close to it?
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"That is why when a trainer told a jockey he was looking for around 1:00 and out in 1:13 the jockey knew what to ask of the horse. If you ask C (and he may be right) the modern jockey has NO CLUE how fast 1:13 is, or how to click off 12's around the track. Which is a shame."
I was talking about what a trainer asks of a jockey when breezing a horse. Simply a hypo, and I know most here that read that knew what I meant (especially Mike A). Just wanted to clarify...
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$50 exacta box 5-8
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I'm a little disappointed that a great feature in Formulator 4 is not present in Formulator Web. I used to check all races on a particular date and track a horse has run but I could not find such as info on the web.
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Sorry this is a little late. Special Mention to Patrick S. who not only won, but finished third as well. He was at the top of the leaderboard for most of the game. Well done.
ROAD TO THE ROSES RESULTS:
#1 Winner Winner Chicken Dinner (well named) 292 points - WTG Patrick S.
#2 Bourbon Bliss Barn 287 points - Gary S.
#3 Uncle Mo's Derby Experience 281 - Patrick S.
#4 Splinter Cell 270 - Danny K.
#5 Rusty Maidens 264 - Laura R (the alter ego to IM, lol).
#6 Kelso's Kennel 263 - Gary S. (the same as #2, good job)
#7 Lotto Gold 261 - Trevor L.
#8 Uncle Mo's Derby Tour 256 - Patrick S. (again!)
#9 SR Stables 254 - Sharon R (go blue thongs!)
#10 Somario Derby 251 - Alex R.
The entire standings are here: http://www.roadtotheroses.com/G=94/game/league_standings.phtml?league_id=200071
Unfortunately, the IMS stables didn't fare so well this year despite the desperate animal hording by one of our members (SR Vegas).
One of our MKB horses was so dsitraught at our Bookie..er..Treasurer Blackstone's suggestion of dropping the horse from the stable, that the poor horse is in therapy and the Syndicate will be stuck with hefty bills for the next 20 years.
Thanks everyone for playing this year and a special thanks to Annie and Sharon who worked tirelessly on Annie's MKB contest.
Laura
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Has no one mentioned the NHC online qualifier today? Or did I just over look it?
Just in case, it is being sponsored by TVG/NTRA.
Alan,
When you are choosing horses for this type of event, do you sometimes have to bite the bullet and take chalk?
I guess what I'm really asking is what is the lowest odds you feel you can accept in a tournament?
Thanks,
Yogi
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Well after starting the day well and except for a couple of exacta horses winning I was blanked the rest of the way, of course except for having Sam Hillic and Departure in the 10th, but they don't pay for 1-3. Luckily that was a race I was talking to someone about over the phone and never played. The track split the days winnings with me....I'll take it.
MH01......If we had conferred on our selections for the day we'd have done well. Nice picking today by the way........
Horses I'd give a long look to next time at Belmont.....Hear The Footsteps (excellent race first time back) , Midnight Billy ( a better post than today....wide throughout)......Lakeside Chapel.....widener course......better post.....Mike A
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My hats off to Tyler Baze for keeping his head into the game at such a trying time in his life. He won 3 races last night at Hollywood Park. I cannot believe what he must be going through.
Hang in their Tyler, and take it one day at a time.
Whackymacky Out!!!
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Peter Pan @Belmont,
I take back every single thing I said about Jeff Siegel on HRTV...After one announcer said it was gonna be tough to catch Adios Charlie as they were coming down the stretch, it was none other than that Jeff guy, who blurted out....>>"Don't look now, BUTTS: here comes that horse w/the dam sire of SEATTLE SLEW....& man he's coming.......">>then went on to make the point his next start would be June 11th @ Belmont..........Look out field>>A true Slewster coming your way...
BTW:If the Big SS is the dam sire......Then there aint no "A. P. Indy" in there either....Roflmao.......
Like I said, he made his own line........& did it in horse race time..1:49+.........
Mama come here quick.....& bring me that Lickin' Stick.........'hause, sister's out in the backyard, doing her outside dance, I'm tellin me the other day, she didn't wanna be a drag, me thinkem' girls got a brand new bag...........JB.......>
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From Bloodhorse last Saturday. HS had his first winner on turf in Haydock Park in England. As is noted in video below, the 2 year old actually looks like he would be more effective at 1 mile or over.
"The most important event for Maiden Watch on Derby Day, was the first winner for Hard Spun, as Mabroor (colt; Hard Spun - Mayfield by Exploit) won his first start at Haydock Park in England. The 6 furlong Try Totequickpick If Youre Feeling Lucky Maiden Stakes was run over good turf. Mabroor was off well, and was in a good position early, just off the leaders. The speed seemed to get away from him a bit at the halfway point, but he reeled them in, and came through on the inside for the victory. He looked a little green out there, but got the job done. Watch Replay. Mabroor sold for $150,000 as a weanling, and for $300,000 as a yearling. He is out of the winning mare Mayfield, who has now produced 3 winners from 3 to run. Mayfield's offspring include stakes-placed Angels in Arms. Mayfield is a full sister to one winner, and a half sister to 10 winners, including stakes winners Daimon, Jack Wilson, Twin Propeller, and Hope Rises; and grade II winner Penny's Reshoot. "
Cut and paste this link if you want to see a video and breakdown of the race from Haydock Park. Mabroor was bred to a classy mare, and the price tag is indicative of that. When the horse finally finds a hole at the end he shows a nice, long stride while racing greenly:
http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Racing/0,27770,431201_3,00.html
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For those who will probably never see such bold and great horses on the track, and think that taking back and running behind slow fractions are the "fashionable" and "smart" thing to do, cut and paste this YouTube link to Affirmed winning the Hollywood Gold Cup in 1:58-2/5 with Pincay up. That is only a tick off the world's record held by Quack and (later) The Bid. Affirmed ran every step of this race, as did Sir Lad and Text. No slow fractions, no cautious holds. Hell no. When they were OFF, they were OFF!
Notice how Affirmed, Sir Lad and Text are all at each other's throats the entire race? No one is worrying about a speed duel here. Affirmed was going and they knew they had to go with him. 23 flat, 46 and change, 1:11 flat, the mile in 1:34-2/5. Affirmed came home in 23 and change after running through those fast fractions in almost world record time. The damn horse was carrying 132 lbs!! Cut and paste the link below and watch:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=014qkekTM2w
Hollywood's track had a rep for being speed favoring, but carrying 132 and going 1:58-2/5, never further than a half a length from the lead at any time and actually on the lead at the 2nd and 3rd calls. C'mon! Strap today's modern jokey on the back of Affirmed or Sir Lad and go this fast around the track from start to finish at 10 furlongs and they would need oxygen and nitro after the race to catch their breath and to stop the heart attack from happening! The only way you will EVER see those fractions again go wire to wire at 10 furlongs is when these jocks are on some long shot, and even then they would need no pressure. It gives me the creeps to think what they would have done to Affirmed or Seattle Slew if they raced today :(
In today's version of the Hollywood Gold Cup, 2011Affirmed would have rated behind 2011Sir Lad and inside of 2011Text, behind crawling fractions. When they finally asked Affirmed he came up but was caught to the inside of 2011 Text, who won by a head over a tiring 2011Sir Lad. 2011Affirmed jockey said he would have went after 2011Sir Lad but was afraid of a speed duel. The time would be 2:03 flat.
THANK GOD this great horse ran in the late 1970s with Laz Barrera, the trainer of the front running classic winners like Bold Forbes and Affirmed, where it was fashionable to just let the damn horse run! I shudder to think what might have happened if a horse with a questionable pedigree came up from Florida like Affirmed did in the late 1970s. They would be rating the horse to death and everyone would be screaming to put the horse at 1 mile where he was bred to run.
They once asked Laz if he worked a lot on rating Affirmed. He asked why he would want to do that and slow the horse down and make it easier for Alydar to catch up to him! Affirmed relaxed just fine at or near the lead. Why mess with what worked?
Horse racing today is flat out boring compared to races like the 1979 Hollywood Gold Cup Classic. And, believe it or not, I am in my forties, not sixties. But I know greatness when I see it. And I ain't seeing it these days...bunch of cowards, cheap speed...or both.
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Recap......6th and 7th @ Belmont.....Both races my key horses didn't fire.....my exacta horses won Pure Amour and Holy Ego respectively..........so both races losers, but encouraging anyway. Still using their money so the sting isn't so bad......
Since a watch horse of mine is running in the Peter Pan and I believed he'd turn out to be a decent horse back in the fall, some of you may remember.....Monzon I'll play him 20.00 ATB.....tough spot for his return to the races, but it's worth 60.00 to find out........Mike A
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I believe I'll try to beat Compliance Officer today.....he's an old favorite. Gimme Credit hasn't won over this course having tried about 6 times. There are also a few I had last year, which I know Mickey will remember, Hear The Footsteps and Sky Blue Pink, because to win, I had to beat him. However I'll take a shot with Midnight Billy.....after a 6f prep on the main...he seems well meant here coming in off the AE's. Mike A
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Here's hoping all of our Formbloggers in Louisiana stay safe (and dry)!
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Belmont 7th......staying on the turf....it's less embarrassing.... Not a particularly good field, but I see potential. The AE horse who got in Logical Order has run well over this course before......7f sgould be within his scope....Sweat Shop....seems to be going up in class, but that's an illusion, has performed admirably over the Widener before and made a nice Middle move in last......Holy Ego should show the way, didn't run bad after a similar layoff and brokje his maiden this course and distance. I believe I'll play it this was key to logical Order 1-2 w/ Holy Ego, sweat Shop and Saratoga Steve.....Mike A
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God was I mistaken in the 5th......dirt races....I suck.....occasionally.....lol!! Mike A
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Quick Belmont attack:
8th: Hear the Footsteps (pace), Preachin' to the Devil (class) and Sky Blue Pink (closes).
Peter Pan: UNCLE BRENT (best speed), BEER MEISTER (rolling late), ALTERNATION (class relief).
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Belmont 7th.....,br>
Some Gulf returnees here...In this statebred alw race. I'm usually not a fan of 3yr.olds racing against older, unless i see upside for the Soph's and when the older horses I deem beatable. With that said I approached this race strictly on who I believe ran against the better competition in their last few. I like a longshot in here.....Lakeside Chapel, running against older and arguably harder hitters this horse has shown she can show up with a big one now and again. Her trainer Frank Alexander follows a similar pattern with her before her last score and unless one of the three year olds decides to step it up I believe she has a good shot. I will play here 1-2 w/ Makeminechocolate, Pure Amour and Floating Alone.....also W-P......The favorite Victoryat last........doesn't thrill me....Mike A
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Ray Manley
" If you have not visited Monmouth, do yourself a favor and plan a weekend trip to the Jersey Shore Track"
Thanks for your comment.
My one and only trip was last summer for the Haskell stakes... with TBTA, and meeting some wonderful Blue Boxers/Thongs.. (YOU know who you were!) I loved the atmospshere and surroundings and it is soooo memorable to me...That it will continue is just wonderful.
Mr. Morris Bailey , Thank You and Good Luck!
______________________________
Looks like a big winner in HG ...Ron B ! CONGRATS!
_________________________________
I'm thinking no one wants to see MKB workouts and entries as we go through the Triple crown races? ...no response to an earlier post. That's ok..
_____________________________________
This, reporting from Katieattherail.in LV
Look!! Up in the Sky! it's a bird, it' a plane, NOOO! it's a Blue Thong on a Zip Line over Fremont Street in Las Vegas...Wahoo!!!
..Opps, what happens in Vegas is suppose to Stay in Vegas?
..ummm, never mind :)
As Cindy Lauper says..."oh girls just wanna' have fun, they wanna' have fun .."
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Decathlon: AWESOME SON starts his 4yo campaign here, blisteringly fast, think he has a shot to be a graded stakes runner. Today though he has to deal with another burner in Movin' Out, should be 21/44 type fractions. This One's for Phil will take money based on his name recognition and past success, but he's been off over a year. Wildcat Brief probably goes favored, off his performances in the Vosburgh and Bold Ruler last fall. One would think he might get a perfect setup today, but I think he may be about 13 lengths back at the quarter pole and left with too much to do. This isn't Belmont. I think stalkers ON THE VINEYARD and SUPER ROBUSTO are appealing here, OTV has a strong recency edge and SR has a positive works pattern. Those two will get first jump and try to run down AS, who I think will finally put away Movin' Out in the last furlong. My three picks in all exotics at what should be decent prices.
Vicstu: Looks like Steve Crist heartily endorses your well stated points about the surpassing weirdness of this year's Derby pace:
"Animal Kingdom was a thoroughly deserving and admirable winner of the 137th Kentucky Derby, but the race was one of the most strangely run Triple Crown races in the modern era. The opening six furlongs in 1:13.40 were the slowest on a fast Derby track in 64 years. The race unfolded so slowly that Zenyatta could have been on the lead. Seriously."
Still awhile away, but I may end up totally ditching the top 3 Derby finishers from my Preakness plays this year. Just looking like it will be a drastically different race.
Gun Bow: Good post, when I was reading it I thought of the way Naki used to ride Sharp Cat, hellbent for the lead from the sound of the bell. Also was a big fan of Beautiful Pleasure.
One of my favorite races of all time, that also illustrates the power of sending a horse and blowing the race open, is the 1995 BC Distaff.
Serena's Song and Lakeway break in front, Durkin talks about "testing early fractions", Mike Smith has Inside Information a few lengths back for the first furlong or so, then you can just almost see Smith saying "F this" to himself, and he actually starts getting active on II after a quarter mile. First TD calls it "nudging along", but within a few seconds it's obvious we are dealing with a real, spectacularly rare, firebreathing dragon of a racehorse, the thoroughbred equivalent of a Ferrari, and she is just starting to get in gear.
Asking her for run, as the big favorite, in a 9 furlong race, moving up to take it to the faces of a couple of formidable burners when the race isn't even a quarter over? Can you imagine any modern jockey doing that with a 1/5 favorite in a Grade 1 race? Of course, we know the result, II runs off and absolutely dominates really good mares like SS and Heavenly Prize, and TD sums it all up beautifully with the classic "Mike Smith asked her to run, and the response was devastating!"
My view: all of the top tier jockeys today would've tucked in behind the leaders, wrangled her 6 off the (gasp) "hot" pace, (god forbid we "burn her out" "battling" with a sprinter like Lakeway), fought her for a mile, finally let her run at the furlong pole, and she would've maybe held off Heavenly Prize by a diminishing length. And we would never have gotten to see the true greatness of this magnificent thoroughbred.
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Preliminary picks for the TVG contest
M6-2
M7-1
M8-2
B8-13
B9-9
B10-2
H5-7
H6-8
H7-10
H8-2
All,especially later races are sbject to change depending on performance. Good luck to all in the contest
mpm101
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PH for Saturday
Only playing three today. Could not find any free PPs for Calder.
Peter Pan -
A- Adios Charlie
B- Newsdad
C- Joe Vann
Unbridled Sidney
A- Celadon
B- Wild About Marie
C- Well Deserved
Alcatraz
A- Life is a Rock
B- Offllee Wild Boys
C- Cody Peak
God luck to all.
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Getting back into the swing of things.....BELMONT....as i mentioned last week and showed an example of with 2 horses Typhoon Tycoon and Pat and Pending Tom, horses for courses is especially true on the two turf courses at Belmont. I loathe to give examples with races that are over, but if anyone cares to ask, I'm sure laura lawduck will confirm the validity of what I'm about to say, since she was privy to it before hand.
In todays first race at Belmont a 6f sprint on the Inner turf course for Alw 50,000's there were 7 entered, with one scratch (Midnite Mass) 6 ran. Linda Rice had 2 entered, City Sneakers and Quick Money.......Quick Money figured to be the favorite......I had no problem tossing them both. You see neither horse had shown an affinity to win on the inner course. If you looked at their individual records on the turf at Belmont you would have seen a decent wps record.....but, if you actually looked you would have noticed that all of their respective winning races were on the widener course. They'd NEVER won on the inner against horses no better than they ran against today. the race had plenty pf speed signed on, with only 3 pace/closers Go Ritchie Go, Don't Fooli Houli and Midnite Mass. with the scratch of MM that left only two.
Go Ritchie Go ( my win pick) had run two very good races in 25 clm company at GP, in a alw NW1 finale before shipping up he ran a creditable 5th only beaten 4, by some hard hitting NY'ers Pretty Boy Frued and New Yawker. Trained by a real favorite of mine Patricia Farro, he was shipped up here for this......the horse showed well enough on the turf and a win at 5f (58:4) on the lint @ Woodbine to beat horses I considered less "classy" and off their favorite course.
Don't Fooli Houli I had second all the way....I remembered this horse from previous years, not the most sound animal as witnessed by his running lines he none the less had always run well off the break and had shown an affinity on the inner course winning a 6f sprint there previously. The horse was working well and I reasoned his pluses outweighed the others negatives over the Inner Course.......the results?
Go Ritchie GO won....ML odds of 12-1 was bet down to 7-2......Don't Fooli Houli ran second, Quick Money did what he always does on the Inner.....hit the board. The best part? in a 7 horse field and because the public felt Quick Money and the 2 Strong Impact could be less than 1-2 ( By the way Strong Impact was another who had never won on the Inner course and hadn't run since OCT of 2010) the exacta paid 65.50......Christmas in May........
So always check an individuals record on the course they are running on, be it the Inner Or the Widener......many times it makes a significant difference and will put you onto some decent price horses. At the very least it will help you decide if that 6-5 shot (as was Quick Money) is a toss......so you don't lose your money QUICK.....get it Quick Money.... Money Quick??
I'm going to be looking at the later turf races.....but there was a dirt race that I like a 10,000 NW2L The 5th......the distance id 6 1/2f i like Wolf Moon over Swinging At Siros........Wolf Moon seems a decnt sort at the distance and should be closing.....Swinging at Siros has an affinity for the main strip at Belmont. I will probably include Payout and Ritchie's Rocket underneath.....Mike A
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Yogi,
In an excellent example of, "Do as I say, not as I do", as of now I am going to play #2 Marquet Rebel (ML:3/1) in MTH6, the 1st NHC contest race today! :-)
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Vic
whether the typo was intentional or un - "jokey" is very funy....
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Dan and all,
Is there anyone we can contact at NYRA to find out why every weekend, there are issues with wagering on line? Thankfully I made my wagers at noon, but for the past hour, I can't connect.
I just called and they told me it was a power outage but yet on the nyra website, there is no mention on this.
All I know is every weekend, in particular on Saturday, this same problem continues to happen.
With an increase of accounts and people wagering on-line with the shutdown of NYCOTB, you would think management would understand they need to increase the bandwidth. This isn't rocket science and at what point can someone actually listen to the gamblers as to what needs to be improved.
This is incredibly frustrating and continues to show the incompetence of how things are run.
KYL Syndicate
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Mike A,
I already gave my wife some of the credit, but it was ultimately my pick and my ticket. She had a ticket with others at her work. That is another story...
You are correct that I will probably get beat that same way.
If I was Romans, I would have liked those fractions. It was a good trip. I read somewhere where he said perhaps 1:12 would have been just as good, but he just could not hang on.
As far as Leatherbury, Delp and the old school trainers, the only thing I can recall is that they were real big on letting a horse with tactical speed run his race. They could target a pace--say 23, 48 and 1:12, and would try and let the horse go at those clips. Since the good ones can go 12 or so each furlong breezing around the track for six furlongs, this is not hard to gauge. Whether they were on the lead or not depended on the other speed in the race and whether they wanted to go faster or have the lead.
That is why when a trainer told a jockey he was looking for around 1:00 and out in 1:13 the jockey knew what to ask of the horse. If you ask C (and he may be right) the modern jockey has NO CLUE how fast 1:13 is, or how to click off 12's around the track. Which is a shame.
Back in the day, if you could not judge pace and did not have a clock in your head, you simply did not go to the next level. Kind of like the minor league slugger that can not hit the major league curve ball: It is what separated the Corderos, Stevens and Jerry Baileys from the pretenders. I remember Steve Cauthen even as a teenager was great at that and it is what made him fit Affirmed so well.
I cannot figure out today's modern jockey. These target fractions for quality speed at 2 turns seem to be a thing of the past, as is a clock in their head. They think nothing of rating off slow paces. That would not fly when I first was exposed to the game. Most speed horses are not "comfortable" sitting behind another horse's slow pace. Usually when you try that the horse is empty when you finally ask for his run--which happened to Soldat.
Ultimately, we agree. I concur the horse should go back to turf. Unless he has everything his way and a decent ride he has little shot of winning again at 2 turns on dirt against graded stakes company.
I do read what you write and take it all in...
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HG 233
Dan
I think that I may have won this as my bet was $100 Tri 3/12/10 and it paid $164.20 for $0.50 for a payoff of $32,840. I wish I had played that much on this race. My analysis of the race was posted.
Dan, Can you tell me my winning bets for the 3 HG's I have won as it has only been in the last tree months approx., as I am curious in that I don't think that I had any losing bet in any of the three. Thanks
Ron B
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TencentCielo
Boy does this feel good. Put me down for $590 for HG 233.
I claim not to be a gambler, but getting it right feels a lot better than getting it wrong.
Hope somebody here had the superfecta with real money.
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HG Results
I can only hope that Ron B walked up to a window for real and placed his $100 trifecta bet of #3-#12-#10 in Race #9 at Arlington Park today. Posted today at 12:46.
He should be the leader in the clubhouse with that score.
Getting ready for some late night action from Hollywood.
Good Luck!!!
Whackymacky Out!!!
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HG 233 Race Results
3. $11.80 $7.20 $3.80
12. $13.00 $5.20
10. $2.60
1.
$2.00 Ex = $136.00
50c Tri = $164.20
10c Super = $532.58
Good luck to the winners!!!
Whackymacky Out!!!
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I like the 10 over the 2,3,4,6,7 over all for 2 dollars.
2 dollar tri 10 with 2,3,4,6,7 with all.
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HG 233
$ 9 Exacta Field over 6
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$100 to win on #12 Nagys Piggy Bank. Dam was a good horse who produced 3/3 winners so far. Barn won with a first time starter earlier on card and have been live early in AP meet. The horse also looked impressive in paddock.
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6 bet well in debut, broke flat foot, rushed up to press pace , tired late...
to day 6 breaks on top and makes it look easy....public who loved in debut will get off him today, like they always do...giving us 7-2 today as a gift..
100.00 w 6...
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HG 233
Re-submitting picks, not sure it went thru the 1st time. First effort at this . . .
$4 exacta box 4-6-7-10 $48
$10 place/show 4-7 $40
$2 tribox 10/4-6-8 $12
Total (hopefully) = $100
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Looking for the #4 to improve with second career start. Will be using other logical contenders in the second slot for an exacta.
#20 Exacta
4
with
2,3,10,7,12
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HG 233
First effort at this . . .
$4 exacta box 4-6-7-10 $48
$10 place/show 4-7 $40
$2 tribox 10/4-6-8 $12
Total (hopefully) = $100
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Ray Manley,
AMEN!!!!!!
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HG233 $100 ex 8-10
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I'm hoping that the 8 horse likes the plastic.
$100 Win 8
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HG 233---
$55 EX---2/4
$15 EX---4,6,10/2
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Handi Time
I'm clueless on this one, so I picking a PGH exacta
$100 ex 10/5
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HG
$5 Super
2/4,6,10/4,6,10/4,6,9,10,12
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C:
I see your point about the possible bonus for Shackleford. It is ridiculous.
But Magna/Stronach obviously made a business decision to try to help their races and their race tracks. I don't agree with it either, but my attitude is it isn't my money so I don't really care. Don't be so upset about it
If I was Dale Romans, and I found somebody dumb enough to give me a $550,000 bonus for winning 1 out of 3 races, I'd take full advantage. It's like Scott Boras looking for one dumb owner in baseball.
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Dick W.,
They always say, what makes humor funny, -{or what you say as goofy}- , is that there's truth involved..So, I ask you, "When did you become an Aficianado of the "the Rendezvous"? Hehn ? More than once ? Heeheehee....Ooh ! Lmao.......
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$50 win 6
$25 ex box (6-10)
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Handi 233 picks:
$10 triple 10/3,4,12/3,4,12,6
$3 triple 12/10/3,4,6
$1 superfecta 10-3-4-12
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10 – Cougar’s Shadow has the best beyer and was close to the quick pace before falling the 4 ½ back, but coming back to only lose by 1 ½.
2 –Panama Hat is the only legitimate closer in the field and should pass tiring horses in the stretch to get a piece of the exotics.
3- Sunshine Express is a first timer whose trainer is over 40% with first timers and in maiden special weight races.
4 Officer Nino and 6-Grudge Match should both be near the lead, but I think they get worn down in the stretch as they could both be short hear.
8, 9, and 12 are all first timers and I’ll put them 4th in the super just in case.
Play $100 - total
$15 trifecta = $90
10 with 2,3 with 2,3,4,6
$1 super = $10 total
10 with 2,3 with 2,3 with 4,6,8,9,12
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HG Correction
Tencent - sorry to do this, but circumstances dictate a change be made:
$25 EX 8/10
$25 EX 8/6
$50 EX 6/8
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Ron,
They are offering Shackleford a $550,000 bonus for NOT winning the Fountain of Youth or Florida Derby. You don't find that moronic? Who are they appealing to? Romans wasn't even aware he was eligible and was already pointing to the race anyway. The fans don't care about this stuff... if anything, it'll just create confusion for those who look at his lifetime earnings in the future. I don't even like bonuses for winning races... but this is a bonus for winning the Preakness, merely hitting the board in, but not winning, the Florida Derby, and getting stomped in the Fountain of Youth. Why should there be a bonus for that? What's next? How will MI outdo themselves on this one? Sorry, it's completely ridiculous. You honestly think Shackleford deserves a bonus here? For WHAT?!?!?
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the 10 has the best beyer fig then the 4&6 so 10/4-6 for a 50$ ex
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Annie
joecem wrote in an earlier thread:
"Posted by joecem
annie,
let me add my congratulations to the chorus. its gratifying that one of the more pleasant voices in this space had her hard work rewarded with a super score."
I can't say how happy I am for you any better than that!--Bear
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HG 233
Just to show everone that playing the superfecta is the hardest wager to hit, I'm trying to get it again.
$5 superfecta 4 // 6 // 7 // 1-8-10-12 = $35
$5 superfecta 6 // 4 // 7 // 1-8-10-12 = $35
$4 superfecta 7 // 4 // 6 // 1-8-10-12 = $28
$2 superfecta 10 // 7 // 4 // 6 = $2
Total $100
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Hg:
Not sure if my post went through so I will try again.
$50 exacta 4-6
$10 tri 4/6-12/6,12
$1 super box 2,4,6,12
$1 super 4/2,6,12/2,6,12/2,6,12
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HG 233
$50 Exacta 7/2,4
Looks like #7 C.C. Banjo had a couple of decent work over the track last week so hoping for the upset.
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$50 win #2 Panama Hat
$50 Exacta 2/10
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$70 Win 10
$10 Exacta Key 10 w 6, 7, 12
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#1 - modest middle move last - will be better than last but not enough
#2 - nice close last - not sure he can stay close enough early to be effective late
#3 - DiVito excellent with first time starters - looks well spotted here
#4 - Well-bred for this - should improve off last
#5 - like last work - low percentage trainer with firsters
#6 - Excellent connections and well spotted for 2nd start
#7 - like last work - low percentage connections - best turf Tomlinson
#8 - haven't seen anything to indicate a good effort is on the way
#9 - nothing favors this one
#10 - outstanding work tab - looks like the best here
#11 - No
#12 - Looks like a very well intentioned firster
I'll go Trifecta:
10/3,7,12/3,7,12 @ $10 = $60
3,7,12/10/3,7,12 @ $5 = $30
$10 win on 7
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HG 233
$50 Exacta Box 3-10
I like Cougar's Shadow (10) for many of the reasons Dan mentioned above, especially that bullet drill over the track last week. Grudge Match (6) could certainly improve for Team Block and complete the exacta but I am expecting Sunshine Express (3) to make an impact. DeVito has solid numbers with firsters and has had a hot start to the meet.
Good luck to all ...
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I am thrilled to learn of the lease agreements for both Monmouth Park and the Meadowlands with the State of New Jersey. Monmouth Park, without question, is one of the finest tracks in the country. If you have not visited Monmouth, do yourself a favor and plan a weekend trip to the Jersey Shore Track. Losing Monmouth would have been a crushing blow to the thoroughbred industry. This is a big win for the industry. I wish Mr. Morris Bailey much success with his track. And I thank him for keeping racing alive at Monmouth Park.
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HG233 Illinois Maidens
Looking for inside speed, a poly workout and a possibly good synth sire and odds to boot.
#4 Officer Nino showed some speed at Haw.
#3 Sunshine Express by a sire which has had some poly winners this one has worked on poly.
#10 Cougar's Shadow 7/2??? bullet work then missed by 1.5Ls @Haw followed by bullet on poly.
#6 Grudge Match bumped, duelled and held on for 2nd @ Haw Apr9, 2 works on poly getting ready.
#9 Lake Posse wintered at OP had 1 work on the poly.
#8 Wild Command hopped out of post 1 in the sloppy Haw race a couple of these were in.
#2 Panama Hat tries the off the pace style on the synthetic.
#11 In All Directions 4yr old has had troubled trips at big odds.
#12 Nagys Piggy Bank sire was black type winner entrant seems wellprepped and well meant.
#7 C. C. Banjo poly work wet track pedigree.
#5 Hey Neighbor poly work.
#1 Any Given Time hasn't worked on poly.
HG wager:
$5 TRI 3,4/3,4/all
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$25 perfecta boxes #10 cougars shadow with #3 sunshine express(is et on steroids at this meeting?)and #7 cc banjo
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hg 233.
My top two are #3 with good trainers first time numbers and good jockey numbers.
#10 comes off a May 5 bullet work.
The bets.
$70.00 exacta 3-10.
$10.00 exacta 10-3.
$1.00 straight trifectas, 3-10 - all.
$1.00 straight trifectas 10 -3 - all.
Happy capping and good luck to all.
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Best Bets
MUTINY was claimed from seventh straight loss, and returned eight weeks later to beat a dozen rivals in best effort since last July; back to dirt and back with Rosie Napravnik after turf try on short rest. RUFFINO probably won't match 92 Beyer earned last time on this track last fall, but grizzled old pro got back in win column recently, when claimed by savvy owner-trainer; second in '09 Empire Classic over sloppy going here. HILL CROSSING has been freshened since Mar. 18 score second off the claim that earned best figure since daylight win here last summer; needs fast footing.
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