12/30/2010 2:56PM

HandiGambling 216 (FG Off the turf)


Today's HandiGambling 216 exercise is the seventh race from Fair Grounds, a statebred entry-level allowance for three-year-olds and upward at 1 mile and 70 yards.  This race is OFF THE TURF.

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan." Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified. Please post your plays and analysis to the blog.  Past performances are available at the previous blog post.  In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per person please. I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.

I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.

The main track is FAST.  The race is OFF THE TURF. 


#3 - HUD'S REBEL will be ridden by Corey Lanerie.

#1 ISHEAJET is 1 lb. overweight.

I like three contenders in multi-race wagers. 

The stats indicate that trainer Frank Leggio does better second off the layoff then with horses fresh off the bench.  Over the past year, according to FormulatorWeb numbers, Leggio is 4-34 (12%, $1.12 ROI) with horses making their first start following a 45-day or greater layoff.  Over the same time period, he is 6-27 (22%, $2.35 ROI) with runners going second off said layoff. 
Leggio will send out #12 BUTTER BROWN for his second start of the form cycle in today's HandiGambling event.  The gray gelding ran well in his first race since August as he was bumped ever so slightly after the break, saved ground throughout, and galloped out past the winner after falling short by a head in the six-furlong event. 
Of the six runners to return from that December 3 race at the Fair Grounds, four came back to crack the exacta including fifth-place finisher Teche, who won a $25,000 claimer on the grass with a 65 Beyer Speed Figure. 
Entered for Main Track Only, Butter Brown's lone career win came over a track with moisture in it, and he should get some speed to stalk from his outside post position. 
The major question is the distance.  Butter Brown's three previous route races weren't very good, and it's possible that he's a sprinter at heart.  Still, Butter Brown seems to be in career form, and his dam was a stakes-winner at 1 1/16 miles. 

#10 LEESTOWNS FINALE also will attempt to successfully stretch out in distance in the second start following a layoff line.  In his most recent effort, he pressed the favored winner's pace throughout, but that was a conditioned claimer, and he'll have to face winners of multiple races in this allowance.  Note that the fifth-place finisher from the December 16 race returned to place third with a 75 Beyer in a $10,000 'n2L' claimer.
Leestown Finale, stakes-placed at one mile on grass, has good numbers on the main track, and shouldn't be too far off the pace as the field straightens for the backstretch run.  Like the top pick, Leestown Finale is lightly-raced, and may have some upside.

#3 HUD'S REBEL was jockey Miguel Mena's second call behind MTO Ryno's Homerun so Corey Lanerie will accept the riding assignment.  A sprint winner of a maiden race at Louisiana Downs on August 22, Hud's Rebel has yet to gain ground from the stretch call to the wire in his three races against winners.  He'll go third off the layoff after making a premature midrace move on grass on December 2, and a repeat of his runner-up performance going a mile at Delta Downs two back would put him in the mix. 
Hud's Rebel has some tactical speed, and should save valuable ground going into the first turn. He should be prominent when the field swings into the stretch. 

As for the others,

#1 ISHEAJET may be better on the grass.  His only lifetime start on dirt came going short in his career debut, and he didn't do much running.  Solid and capable on grass, Isheajet is a one-run closer that will likely be at the mercy of race and pace luck this afternoon.

#5 GINORMOUS' only lifetime win came in a $5,000 statebred maiden claimer, but that race was around two turns on the main track, and he's been racing in good form on the grass.  He's yet another runner going second off the bench this afternoon, but he likes to come from off the pace, and will need things to fall his way if he's going to run them all down under hot-riding Rosie Napravnik.

#6 SCATINEASYCAT returns to his favorite surface (won twice around two turns here last meet, including an off-the-turf race), but he's only started once since mid-June.  He exits a good open allowance race at Delta Downs (five of the six runners hit the board next-out including 'n2L' winner Mauriceville, 79 Beyer), and may benefit by dropping back in with statebreds. 
Like Isheajet and Ginormous, Scatineasycat likes to rally from well off the pace, and will need strong fractions to help his cause.

#7 DIXIE DOT RUN steps up following a maiden victory at Delta Downs, but doesn't show a published move in the last 42 days.  Only one of the six runners from that race returned to hit the board next-out, and that horse, ninth-place finisher Garcia's Letter, needed $12,500 maiden claimers to graduate.  This barn has sent out some live runners at the meet, however, and Dixie Dot Run has the tactical speed to be close to the pace.

#8 CONNER CAN overcame a less-than-ideal trip to run down conditioned claimers at this distance 25 days ago.  Half of the six runners to return from that race came back to crack the board next-out including third-place finisher Regal Soul (won $7,500 claimer by seven lengths with a 75 Beyer).  Another late-runner, Conner Can is in form.

#11 RYNO'S HOMERUN gets in from the Main Track Only list, is Miguel Mena's first call, and is the most prolific winner in the field.  He just handled $5,000 statebred claimers on December 2, but there's an interesting negative stat concerning trainer Wesley Hawley.  Hawley, a 21% trainer in 2010, is 0 for his last 41 with horses coming off a win. 
Nonetheless, Ryno's Homerun should be in a nice stalking spot going into the first turn, and we know he handles the distance.

An interesting race. 

I'll use the top three in multis.

For HandiGambling, I'll play it like this:

$50 Exacta:  Butter Brown - Leestown Finale (12-10)
$50 Exacta:  Butter Brown - Hud's Rebel (12-3)

Best of luck to all.

blackseabass More than 1 year ago
MikeA , I think you sound very pretty , and you're a good judge on bad whorses too.LOL. My captcha is Bach horsbare > Thats what the Governator of Call-eee-4-neee-ah says when he means riding bareback.
sherpa More than 1 year ago
Happy 2011 everyone! May every day of this year bring you something to celebrate :-) And a Happy Official Birthday to all the horses today, especially to those who turn 3. Keep you safe and loved and long in life. I see my MKB Decisive Moment worked 5f in 1:00 flat, handily, yesterday. Good boy, DM! Bring it to the Holy Bull!
Mike A More than 1 year ago
Curt V Your Welcome.......Wadi Suki's M.O. is running second at big numbers......he's my new Wayward Red......I'm locked in on him.......sorry he didn't win, but Engelhards been tough lately I believe he's 5 for his last 5. At least someone listens to me.........I may not sound as pretty as most folks.....but I win......I'll take it. VQ.......Have I ever slept standing up.......no.....but just about every other position. You see I don't waste motion, or time. When my body senses I'm not doing anything in particular, it shuts down. I have zero stress in my life........Now I could answer your query about the tango with some macho, testosterone laden answer.........but that would be childish......I can say no, never......but you'd have to take my word for it. Mike A
chicago gerry More than 1 year ago
BSB, Ditto VQ, and thanks for your thoughtful response to running styles. A lot to digest chew on there, and thanks to Mike A too. Regarding the Minaret, I don't participate in the PH, but I did have the Winner across the Board. Paid $7.60. Cynical Sidney, I have a niece by the name of Sidney. But no that you mentioned the name, I don't know if she spells it Sydney or Sidney. My guess is Sidney spelled Sidney would be a male name but what do I know. For many months, I thought Tencentcielo was a woman. One of my sons name is Mac. It is a nickname. This was a deliberate decision by his parents so to help him with gender identification. Am wondering if you are male or female?
Curt V. More than 1 year ago
BSB, "Ted Mack Amateur Hour" over ? Went to bed at 9PM last night, in order to avoid the confusion..I was talking to the guru, who was feasting on $40 worth of Chinese food & probably fell asleep.. Speaking of confusion: You iterated that Fla. has high Take-outs: Oh!! Contrere moi frere...LOL.. The tracks in Fla. are all different.......Gulfstream in 2010 was ranked #4 in total best in lowest Take-Out{Tampa next}BEFORE the reduction.....W/ a little Homework, I was able to deduct that in 2011 they will indeed be ranked #1 in the country..As it seems Ritvo{president GP} was NOT blowing smoke...Coming East Fisherman ? -Last year{'10} WPS was 17%>>This year{'11} WPS reduced to 15%>lowest in the country>> -DD, Exacta, P3, P4>{down to 20% for all} -P6>15%..........................& large fields............DIRT & Grass.............. Let's see who does better w/the handle>the Increasers, or the Decreasers..I know who my moneys on..........The guys who want to protect the lifeline>>The BETTORS........Enough said ? No ? duh ? Hehn ? Speaking of UR Underdog status>>NCAA football results yesterday>>4 of 4 games played & all the Underdogs won outright........... 2 bits of important information for the coming year>> #1>Stop playing the Dirter/Firters & the Firter/Dirters>they don't win w/any alacrity worth a fiddler. W/your prowess in sniffing out, who is the better horses...after the fact...just do the elimination protocol from the above & watch your strike rate RISE......... #2>Stop playing w/the inside, outside posts business by yourself>>When Turfman Mike A. tells you that the outside is playing strong, or vice-versa, do the E.F Hutton & just LISTEN..........I know that's a tough on for you..but do you know anybody else picking 40-1 shots ? I didn't think so... Happy New Year.........
Curt V. More than 1 year ago
Let's see how I'm goona say this..without sounding somewhat Red ????? I got that call from the weary traveler, Mike A. early this morning....FINALLY>>....He was on the road, so he was only sure of one horse, Monzon @the Big A. Now, you must understand I've been riding him pretty good of late for his lack of main track{Dirt} picks/winners..I've been basically telling him to stick to Grass & I'll do all the thinnin' myself on Dirt...So, he must of took it personally...He gave me Monzon{6-1} on Dirt & he won like his namesake, Carlos Monzon, the Champ....Like Citation too..But the race just before that he said, "I'm not sure of the 2 horses or the race, but the 2 Trainers are Englehart & Persaud.." So, like Dick Tracy, I found them..@4-1 & 20-1.....I showed some guy & he said, "You can't play them horses, they're terrible...." & I responded........"I ain't playing those horses, I'm playing the 2 trainers, you dummy........"....Seriously, LMAO @him....He looked at me sideways when I went to the cashier & collected the $170 Exacta, on Dirt........I consider those 3 picks as my forgotten, belated X-Mas present, from my aging Uncle.........Thank You..Your nephew........Curt..........How come the #10 Waki Sudi, didn't win{the 20-1 horse} ? I had him stickered pretty good you know{collected $13 place money}..That's what I wanna know.......You should be more thorough, you know......ROFL..........as my pocket now has a Bulge..........
cynical sidney More than 1 year ago
VQ look everybody annie has another 'male' admirer on the blog Just as 'Queen' can describe a person of either persuasion...i.e. male...female.....so to the name Sidney. One needs to exercise caution when being facetious.
Mike A More than 1 year ago
Early.......Happy New Year everyone.....I feel asleep early, I was watching Troy. Personally I would have left Helen there.......what a waste over a skirt. VQ.......Glad you stayed in.....but somehow sad too.......Something tells me you could enlighten your therapist about many things........It's funny....when it was suggested years ago I "speak" to someone I reminded the caring individual that it was everyone else that was wrong........ Curt V..............sorry I didn't get back to you last night......"see above". I looked over the races at Aqueduct and am less than enthused. I'll call you while I'm on the road....decided to meet a friend half way......I know you understand. TTY later. BSB.........while I've no doubt that our collective knowledge of the "ponies" is about the same, perhaps with a slightly different emphasis here and there, you are decidedly more eloquent than I. I enjoy reading your posts to see what I would be saying had I the ability......keep it coming.....I'm good. Mike A
Dennis of Moline More than 1 year ago
Happy New Year everyone Annie Happy birthday and thanks for MKB horse:) Sure hope it warms up in Vegas before the end of the month! DOM
SR Vegas More than 1 year ago
Blackseabass LOL, I like your thoughts. I'll never forget my 'Patriotic' Day ..I just picked jockey silks...Red-White-Blue- stripes & dots. Yep...winners all day long & when the 40-1 longshot came in at the end of the day...my RAH threw up his hands, and said ' that' mule should have stayed back in the barn. he-he-he. Yes...We all have our moments :) Happy New Year!