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HandiGambling 215 (Louisiana-bred maidens)
Today's HandiGambling 215 exercise is the eighth race from Fair Grounds, a statebred maiden special weight for juveniles at 1 mile and 40 yards.
Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan." Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified. Please post your plays and analysis to the blog. Past performances are available at the previous blog post. In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per person please. I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
As of this writing, the track is FAST.
Scratch #12 - The Tooth Man and #13 Pinecrest Pirate
A pretty competitive contest for our weekly HandiGambling exercise. I think there are four main contenders in this race, but will go with #8 - SKYMAX as my top selection.
A half-brother to stakes-winning sprinter Debris (103K in earnings), Skymax is by the juvenile sprint stakes-winner Lone Star Sky, who successfully stretched his speed to 1 1/16 miles in the Cradle Stakes at River Downs. Although this female family is mostly geared to sprint racing and Skymax has yet to gain ground from the stretch call to the wire in any one of his five lifetime sprint races, I'm banking on jockey Kerwin Clark to send Skymax to the lead, slow down the pace, and have something left for the long stretch drive.
Two starts back, Skymax raced three wide in the $100,000 Louisiana Stallion Stakes and finished ahead of a pair of next-out winners. Last time out, he lost all chance when being checked hard along the rail on the turn. That maiden race, Skymax's first start of the current form cycle, was the faster division of statebred maiden specials at Fair Grounds on November 25 by 4/5's of a second.
#3 - MIRACLE CREEK, like the top selection, has yet to gain late ground in his career, but he has valuable experience around two turns. A beaten favorite last time out at Delta Downs, Miracle Creek raced with the grain of a closer-friendly main track that day, and still couldn't punch it in. He has good tactical speed, however, and shouldn't be too far off the early leaders when the real racing begins. This barn is 1-26 over the last few Fair Grounds meets, and the rider has never ridden here going into today, but Miracle Creek's last two races are fast enough to contend this afternoon.
#11 - NO LIP looms the horse to beat as it looks like he was purchased privately since his most recent start. He now moves into the high-percentage Tom Amoss barn following that runner-up effort against open maidens at Delta, and three of the five horses that have come back from that race returned to hit the board (including one in a restricted stake here on December 10). It looks as if this horse has a good amount of upside.
#4 - ORDINARY TIME, a full sister to stakes-placed turf performer Riina (43K), finished behind Miracle Creek when even-money on December 1. He hasn't done much wrong in his short career, switches to the hot-riding Rosie Napravnik, and has run numbers that are very competitive with these. The only other time he raced against statebred maidens was his debut, and he finished a close second on grass that day. He fits.
As for the others:
#1 - STORM OSIDY was bet down to favoritism when dropped into a statebred maiden claimer last time out, but faltered after attempting a wide, midrace move. He goes two sprints to a route in the third start of the form cycle, and could be forwardly-placed from his inside draw under Miguel Mena. He's another that has yet to gain ground from the stretch call to the wire.
#2 GUT CHECK, a half-brother to stakes-placed Sunup (152K), is out of a dam that was multiple stakes-placed. He seems to be slowly improving with each and every race so it might be foolish to give up on this $80,000 juvenile purchase. Perhaps stretching out around two turns will be just what the doctor ordered. An interesting price runner.
#5 MATTGETSNORESPECT didn't have an easy trip when making his debut for Al Stall on December 3. The barn shows confidence by hiking him out of the maiden claiming ranks, and the runner-up from the debut try came back to win by open lengths in a $15,000 maiden claimer with a 62 Beyer. I'm expecting improvement.
#6 MY DADDY HEIR is by a sire that is 1-25 (4%) with juvenile debut runners. The dam was 3-31 for 47K in earnings. It's never easy to make a successful debut going two turns, and My Daddy Heir doesn't show a published move in almost three weeks.
#7 SOUTH RIDGE raced evenly at long odds in his first start following an almost six month break and can certainly do better with that race under his girth. He's another stretching out for the first time, and isn't the worst stab on the bottom of superfecta wagers.
#9 PATRYKUS, like South Ridge, stretches out in his second start of the form cycle. He's been competing unsuccessfully in maiden claimers, however, and will step up in class under Shane Sellers.
#11 - DAKOTA COMET is by a sire that is 4-103 with juvenile debut runners. The dam was winless from two starts, but has already foaled stakes-winning sprinter Midnight Judge (202K). This one must avoid a wide trip from the far outside post at a difficult debut distance.
Here's how I'll play it (although I am worried about the additional distance):
$50 Win-Place: #8 - Skymax
Best of luck to all.
With the race washed off the turf, my early handicapping is useless. I'm going to go with the 4 horses that seem to be bred for the offtrack or that have a little experience on the dirt. My top pick is the #8 Conner Can - I like the fact that he has won over the track and had his picture taken 3 times. This is a bit of step up from the claiming races he's been running in, but I think the son of Graeme Hall can get the win for Shane Sellers. I like how the #5 Ginormus is improving in his last 4 starts, and would have loved to see this race stay on the grass, but I think that you can throw out his first 4 races on the dirt as it seems like a light has gone on for this gelding. The #7 Dixie Dot Run doesn't look to have the numbers on the main track, but he is another lightly raced gelding that stands a good chance of improving this race. I always like to see a main track entrant draw in and my final pick is #12 Butter Brown. I like that most of racing has been on the main track and I think he is another lightly raced gelding that stands a good chance of improving. The bet $7 exacta wheel 8 / 5,7,12 $2 exacta box 5,7,8,12 $5 trifecta wheel 8 / 5,7,12 / 5,7,12 $1 trifecta box 5,7,8,12 for a total of $99 wagered
Congratulations to Jeranimo and his connections on winning the San Gabriel yesterday. I have always liked this horse and am glad to see him take to the turf. He beat a couple of pretty good horses yesterday in The Usual Q. T. and Proudinsky and did it with authority. He could have an impact on the older turf division if he stays healthy. Next up for him is the Sunshine Millions turf where he will again face The Usual Q. T. I am curious to see what kind of beyer he got from the San Gabriel. Dick W
Blackseabass I haven't seen Laura's completed IMS (Iron Maiden Syndicate) Stable list yet...but if the same persons who were in last year are still participating, plus a couple new comers, it may look something like this: Keith L - Tapizar Laura - Razmataz Mickey - J B's Thunder SR Vegas - Dominus & Cal Nation Blackstone - Rouge Romance TBTA - Dialed In Emily - no MKB Jeanne - Bench Points Memphag- no MKB Spartan Tom - Sweet Ducky ..I'm not sure if all the previous owners have signed in with Laura, yet, or who may have joined in this season .....But looks like a nice stable, eh? We did have all the triple crown winners last year ..Super Saver , Lookin at Lucky & Drosselmeyer. Wouldn't you like to be part of a winning team ? :)
CURT V , Calvin said the American 1's still go back to the original. So your Mkb has 45% 1's same as Spend a buck and Grindstone . Silver charm had 39% . Slew and Swale had 35 % . Your horse is red hot !!! he ain't got money but man he's a really got alot ! He's just a plain 1/ 9 /4 / 7,17 now . He's got 5 families with just one drop. His 1's really dominate. He only has 13% 9's . 9.5% 4,s . He's got 5 different srains of the original goin'on. Can he run ? I guess I get Mo back since Anne M already chose a new one before my offer went through ? I'll sell you 25 % interest in MO for 51 % interest in Garden Bay and I'll still sell SRVegas 37.5% of MO for 51% of CAL and 20 % of Dominus if she wants that deal. As for the rest of my interest in mo . I want to give 5% of Mo to Annie outright. Then I want to get my money out of Mo while he's ridin' high and got good value. So I plan on keeping a 2.5 % interest in Mo and selling my remaining 30% in 5 % blocs for 15-20% shares of selected MKB colts on the list of 1 tops that I previously posted. SRVegas will end up majority owner of MO and I'll be minority owner(gotta keep a little mo for sentimental value). All reasonable offers will be considered for my shares. I'm especially interested in some shares of Brock & Brethren or Animal kingdom & the Rougue . I'd gamble on some Comma, PrePeg or Tiz Blessed I wouldn't turn my nose up at some City Cool or Razmataz for a 5 % for 30 % swap.
Blackstone, I may have missed your schedule on the boat but there is a sports book in Cancun if that is one of your ports of call. Called El Calliente. Happy NEw Year all BEBC
Annie Thank you for doing whe top 25-Rogue at 15th is just about perfect for the pending scam. I just about have the seed money for the necessary bribes ($25,000). Dr. Peppi's job is to intimidate all the other horses into submission-right now he left the ship to start his journey. He's not going to harm anyone-neither in his nature nor mine-just scare the heck out of them. Jonah Me too-we'll set up time, place, etc. next week. blackseabass Thank you for all the data-Aniie's giving you a commission I hope? Rogue is spending most of his time with the "Tweeners"-ages 9-12. You know-Arts & Crafts. Mad Libs, Dodge Ball (somehow he went out first-too big of a target). My wife is trying to win a $25,000 Slot Tournament. However, I've already won my first tournament-Ping Pong. 22 competitors-killed them! Had to buy drinks for the ship, though, 2,100 passengers and 801 crew members-used some of the bribe stash. Still looking for an OTB in Cabo-we stop there tomorrow.
Blackseabass, Regarding the opening day handle at Santa Anita: I think the new takeout percentage rates take place beginning on January 1, 2011. I watched the SA races on Sunday but I did not play. I think most of my winter wagering will be spent on Fair Grounds, Gulfstream and Tampa. I will bet a stake now and then at SA but I think I will just watch and see what happens to the handle and ultimately to the takeout at SA. Good luck to all of my Form Blog friends.
AnneM You're welcome! Cal Nation will be very well cared for. Dominus is happy to have a buddy to hang with, until they get their racing shoes on.. I have lots of experiance with these young colts. Remember my Spicer? Carl brought him along slowly. In 6 races he went 1-2-1, always in the money. But has since disappeared. I think he is up North hanging with Dasher, Dancer, Prancer and Vixen...the Spicer fits right in with that crew :) Happy New Year! 'tacticur davenant'
Dan R.....I will look at the race and get back to you..... Annie.......To what horse are you referring? It seems something may be amiss with Badleroibrown,,,,,after working up a storm on the SYN at Keeneland, then running a good second on the turf on 10/31 he hasn't sniffed a racetrack. I haven't lost faith....he's a runner like Animal Kingdom. Mike A
Robert SD , i thought it happened before synth. I know it wasn't BOB Blackjack's and georgie boys year I was thinking about. Perhaps everybody is right and I'm wrong. That happened once. LOL.